【香港寬頻】食飯時候討厭的烏蠅最喜歡出來分一杯羹，美國有個男人就發明了一支無毒無污染，用食鹽做子彈的散彈槍對付烏蠅。
Monday, July 30, 2012
Friday, July 27, 2012
DBC 香港數碼廣播有限公司's Notes
台長聲明
此際DBC數碼電台，正經歷開台以來的最大挑戰，需要全體員工，上下齊心，共赴難關。
多謝廣大DBC聽眾關心及支持，惟當中亦有個別毫無建設性和不負責任的留言，借故對本台展開攻擊謾駡。非常時期，須施行非常手段，對於此等惡意言行，我們決定不予容忍，將會予以剷除，以免蠱惑人心，混淆視聽，教別有用心人士，達成其不可告人目的。
謹此聲明 以正視聽
鄭經翰
數碼電台台長
二零一二年七月二十七日
此際DBC數碼電台，正經歷開台以來的最大挑戰，需要全體員工，上下齊心，共赴難關。
多謝廣大DBC聽眾關心及支持，惟當中亦有個別毫無建設性和不負責任的留言，借故對本台展開攻擊謾駡。非常時期，須施行非常手段，對於此等惡意言行，我們決定不予容忍，將會予以剷除，以免蠱惑人心，混淆視聽，教別有用心人士，達成其不可告人目的。
謹此聲明 以正視聽
鄭經翰
數碼電台台長
二零一二年七月二十七日
鄭經翰：數碼廣播股東互信基礎存問題
有 報 道 指 ， 新 開 辦 的 香 港 數 碼 廣 播 有 限 公 司 考 慮 清 盤 。
公 司 今 日 召 開 董 事 會 ， 會 後 公 司 主 席 鄭 經 翰 表 示 ， 包 括 他 本 人 及 全 國 政 協 委 員 黃 楚 標 等 4 名 董 事 出 席 。 鄭 經 翰 強 調 ， 公 司 並 非 在 資 金 上 出 現 問 題 ， 但 就 在 注 資 及 營 運 方 面 有 分 歧 ， 但 他 就 不 願 透 露 分 歧 內 容 。
鄭 經 翰 又 表 示 ， 公 司 股 東 在 互 信 基 礎 上 亦 有 問 題 ， 但 由 於 部 分 股 東 不 在 香 港 ， 需 要 諮 詢 法 律 意 見 ， 與 股 東 再 商 討 後 ， 下 星 期 會 明 確 決 定 將 來 的 營 運 方 向 。
公 司 今 日 召 開 董 事 會 ， 會 後 公 司 主 席 鄭 經 翰 表 示 ， 包 括 他 本 人 及 全 國 政 協 委 員 黃 楚 標 等 4 名 董 事 出 席 。 鄭 經 翰 強 調 ， 公 司 並 非 在 資 金 上 出 現 問 題 ， 但 就 在 注 資 及 營 運 方 面 有 分 歧 ， 但 他 就 不 願 透 露 分 歧 內 容 。
鄭 經 翰 又 表 示 ， 公 司 股 東 在 互 信 基 礎 上 亦 有 問 題 ， 但 由 於 部 分 股 東 不 在 香 港 ， 需 要 諮 詢 法 律 意 見 ， 與 股 東 再 商 討 後 ， 下 星 期 會 明 確 決 定 將 來 的 營 運 方 向 。
Profit Taking And Bargain Buying Moves Market
Equity stock market wavers on speculation. Few weeks ago, smart money purchased stocks at recent bottom and it was posted in the blog that market bottom was reached. After consolidation, market swayed back up on trickle buying. Market participants remain cautious on the way and trading volume shrinks. Market manipulators have not initiated sell-off until last week. Some of the smart money that purchases stocks at bottom is from market manipulators. The stocks silently collected at the bottom are then dumped in the previous week. However, the quantity is relatively small compared with the dumping by market manipulators in last year because market participants are reluctant to sell to market manipulators at the bottom. The selling have already exhausted the holdings of market manipulators. Traders follow the selling. But late comers see a strong rebound in this week as buyers are fighting for limited shares circulating in the market.
The upward trend will continue after market manipulators finish selling in the beginning of this week. Institutional and individual investors do not participate in the selling and welcome the rally although the portfolio is only lightly loaded. Market participants continue to have little confidence in equity stocks. But earnings improvement and surge of global wealth will drive share price.
Market participants will continue to trade within a range which is moving upward. Last year, market manipulators had a large portfolio to sell from the year peak and began short selling using the insider knowledge of US rating downgrade. A lot of profit were made. But this year, the same strategy did not work because market participants are waiting with cash for sell-off instead of selling during market panic.
Market will oscillate as smart traders buy low and sell high on speculation. It is difficult to time the market. Investors can allocate funds to buy in small increments when market retreats and take profit in increments when market advances. More aggressive speculators can follow market movement for swing trading based on capital flow with consideration of macro economic condition.
Market participants remain fear of market crash. Market manipulators have access to insider knowledge of news and information that may move market significantly. Hot money in financial market will create turbulence in equity stock market.
Why Euro Isn't Headed for a Collapse
The euro is hovering near multi-year lows against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen as a slew of negative news cements bearish sentiment towards the single currency, but analysts tell CNBC there are signs of resilience in the euro and a collapse is unlikely.
Ratings agency Moody's late on Monday changed its outlook for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative from stable, while concerns grow that Spain may need a financial bailout. This has triggered talk that the currency could soon fall below the critical $1.20 level.
But Sean Callow, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac says that so far the euro has withstood the pressure well.
'Crazy' Not to Own Regional Bank Stocks: Dick Bove
It's crazy not to own the regional banks right now, Dick Bove, banks analyst at Rochdale Securities, told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Monday.
"The quality of earnings is extraordinarily high," Bove said of the regional banks. "It's coming from more loans and more deposits."
It's hard to assume that these stocks are going to go up so long as people refuse to look at the earnings," he said.
In general, Bove said, "The problem with bank stocks is not anything to do with earnings or the structure of their balance sheets, the problem with bank stocks is that people don't believe any of the numbers associated with this group of companies."
He added: "If no one cares about how much money these banks make and no one cares about what the growth rates have been coming out of the recession, it's very difficult to see what's going to them to buy the stocks."
VIX Will Burn Investors Waiting for a Market Crash
As tense as the stock market, the economy, or even the election seem right now, it's hard to argue that fear isn't just a smidge ahead of itself. In fact, that's exactly the case being made by Ryan Detrick, Senior Technical Strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, who says the ''extreme worry" out there makes for the "ultimate contrarian play." Simply put, he says too many people are positioned for higher volatility as measured by record open interest in the VIX.
A large part of Detrick's conviction is based on history. Not just long-term performance of the Volatility Index itself, but also historical volatility, which he says has ''totally imploded."
"[Historical volatility] is down 80% since the financial crisis [in 2008] and down 50% since last summer."
He says simple year-on-year price comparisons are inaccurate and do not reflect ''off-the-charts" buying and attempts to pick the bottom. "We think the crowd could definitely have it wrong and volatility could slowly continue to trickle lower."
"We still think the upward trend since '09 is still firmly in place."
Why TrimTabs' CEO is 100% Bearish
Despite Mario Draghi's reassurance that the ECB will do everything in its power to save the euro zone, Europe is not going to do anything meaningful and central bank action will not save the equity markets - on the contrary, they'll "implode", Charles Biderman, Chief Executive and Founder of TrimTabs Investment Research, told CNBC.
"The fundamental problem in Europe is that the economies [there] are not generating enough taxable revenues to meet current bills, let alone growing future entitlements and let alone the huge stack of already molding debt that exists," he said. "In the face of that, I don't know what else they can do but talk."
Biderman was not only pessimistic about Europe, however, adding that another reason to be bearish was the faltering U.S. economy, low gains in wages (barely above inflation, he said) the jobs market and the Federal Reserve's strategy.
Biderman defended his 100 percent bearishness on equity markets, saying that central bank interference in the markets would not last, and could do permanent damage.
"I'm not saying that the world is going to zero, I'm saying that the companies that have been profiting from the central bank rigging of the equity and bond markets, will suffer as those markets implode."
Market Is Having a Very Good Year...Really!
My asset class is out of favor, but the performance isn't bad. When I talk to friends about the stock market these days they look at me sympathetically, like I have a painful skin disease.
"Must be hard for you, covering all that depressing news," they say.
"Well, it is sometimes depressing, but we're having a pretty good year," I respond. "The U.S. stock market is having one of its best years in a long time."
"You're kidding," they invariably say.
No, I'm not kidding. The S&P 500 index is up over 8 percent year-to-date. That is better than most years, in fact it's the best first seven months of the year performance since 2009. Before that, you had to go back to 2003 to get a better performance.
And yet, no one seems to believe that the stock market is having a very good year.
Part of the problem is that everyone seems to be underperforming in some way. Hedge-fund traders routinely complain to me that sharp intraday moves and the constant meddling of central bankers in the markets make it impossible to buy stocks purely on fundamentals.
Mutual funds seem to be having an even tougher time. JPMorgan Chase noted this morning that the average large-capitalization mutual fund is trailing the S&P 500 by 111 basis points. That is a lot.
Only 13 percent are beating their benchmarks by more than 250 basis points (normally 26 percent beat), and 32 percent (one in three) are underperforming by more than 250 basis points, the worst performance since 2008.
How to explain the underperformance? Most likely it's because the April-May swoon in stocks caused investors to become more defensive, which left them underperforming when the S&P staged a nice rally in June. Ouch.
The upward trend will continue after market manipulators finish selling in the beginning of this week. Institutional and individual investors do not participate in the selling and welcome the rally although the portfolio is only lightly loaded. Market participants continue to have little confidence in equity stocks. But earnings improvement and surge of global wealth will drive share price.
Market participants will continue to trade within a range which is moving upward. Last year, market manipulators had a large portfolio to sell from the year peak and began short selling using the insider knowledge of US rating downgrade. A lot of profit were made. But this year, the same strategy did not work because market participants are waiting with cash for sell-off instead of selling during market panic.
Market will oscillate as smart traders buy low and sell high on speculation. It is difficult to time the market. Investors can allocate funds to buy in small increments when market retreats and take profit in increments when market advances. More aggressive speculators can follow market movement for swing trading based on capital flow with consideration of macro economic condition.
Market participants remain fear of market crash. Market manipulators have access to insider knowledge of news and information that may move market significantly. Hot money in financial market will create turbulence in equity stock market.
Why Euro Isn't Headed for a Collapse
The euro is hovering near multi-year lows against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen as a slew of negative news cements bearish sentiment towards the single currency, but analysts tell CNBC there are signs of resilience in the euro and a collapse is unlikely.
Ratings agency Moody's late on Monday changed its outlook for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative from stable, while concerns grow that Spain may need a financial bailout. This has triggered talk that the currency could soon fall below the critical $1.20 level.
But Sean Callow, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac says that so far the euro has withstood the pressure well.
'Crazy' Not to Own Regional Bank Stocks: Dick Bove
It's crazy not to own the regional banks right now, Dick Bove, banks analyst at Rochdale Securities, told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Monday.
"The quality of earnings is extraordinarily high," Bove said of the regional banks. "It's coming from more loans and more deposits."
It's hard to assume that these stocks are going to go up so long as people refuse to look at the earnings," he said.
In general, Bove said, "The problem with bank stocks is not anything to do with earnings or the structure of their balance sheets, the problem with bank stocks is that people don't believe any of the numbers associated with this group of companies."
He added: "If no one cares about how much money these banks make and no one cares about what the growth rates have been coming out of the recession, it's very difficult to see what's going to them to buy the stocks."
VIX Will Burn Investors Waiting for a Market Crash
As tense as the stock market, the economy, or even the election seem right now, it's hard to argue that fear isn't just a smidge ahead of itself. In fact, that's exactly the case being made by Ryan Detrick, Senior Technical Strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, who says the ''extreme worry" out there makes for the "ultimate contrarian play." Simply put, he says too many people are positioned for higher volatility as measured by record open interest in the VIX.
A large part of Detrick's conviction is based on history. Not just long-term performance of the Volatility Index itself, but also historical volatility, which he says has ''totally imploded."
"[Historical volatility] is down 80% since the financial crisis [in 2008] and down 50% since last summer."
He says simple year-on-year price comparisons are inaccurate and do not reflect ''off-the-charts" buying and attempts to pick the bottom. "We think the crowd could definitely have it wrong and volatility could slowly continue to trickle lower."
"We still think the upward trend since '09 is still firmly in place."
Why TrimTabs' CEO is 100% Bearish
Despite Mario Draghi's reassurance that the ECB will do everything in its power to save the euro zone, Europe is not going to do anything meaningful and central bank action will not save the equity markets - on the contrary, they'll "implode", Charles Biderman, Chief Executive and Founder of TrimTabs Investment Research, told CNBC.
"The fundamental problem in Europe is that the economies [there] are not generating enough taxable revenues to meet current bills, let alone growing future entitlements and let alone the huge stack of already molding debt that exists," he said. "In the face of that, I don't know what else they can do but talk."
Biderman was not only pessimistic about Europe, however, adding that another reason to be bearish was the faltering U.S. economy, low gains in wages (barely above inflation, he said) the jobs market and the Federal Reserve's strategy.
Biderman defended his 100 percent bearishness on equity markets, saying that central bank interference in the markets would not last, and could do permanent damage.
"I'm not saying that the world is going to zero, I'm saying that the companies that have been profiting from the central bank rigging of the equity and bond markets, will suffer as those markets implode."
Market Is Having a Very Good Year...Really!
My asset class is out of favor, but the performance isn't bad. When I talk to friends about the stock market these days they look at me sympathetically, like I have a painful skin disease.
"Must be hard for you, covering all that depressing news," they say.
"Well, it is sometimes depressing, but we're having a pretty good year," I respond. "The U.S. stock market is having one of its best years in a long time."
"You're kidding," they invariably say.
No, I'm not kidding. The S&P 500 index is up over 8 percent year-to-date. That is better than most years, in fact it's the best first seven months of the year performance since 2009. Before that, you had to go back to 2003 to get a better performance.
And yet, no one seems to believe that the stock market is having a very good year.
Part of the problem is that everyone seems to be underperforming in some way. Hedge-fund traders routinely complain to me that sharp intraday moves and the constant meddling of central bankers in the markets make it impossible to buy stocks purely on fundamentals.
Mutual funds seem to be having an even tougher time. JPMorgan Chase noted this morning that the average large-capitalization mutual fund is trailing the S&P 500 by 111 basis points. That is a lot.
Only 13 percent are beating their benchmarks by more than 250 basis points (normally 26 percent beat), and 32 percent (one in three) are underperforming by more than 250 basis points, the worst performance since 2008.
How to explain the underperformance? Most likely it's because the April-May swoon in stocks caused investors to become more defensive, which left them underperforming when the S&P staged a nice rally in June. Ouch.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
LuLu抽龍心水
模王璐瑤（LuLu）在書展被龍心偷襲，自稱被箍頸兼錫面，十足受害者。早兩日龍心將當日親手拍的片段放上網，片內有他自拍小便，但不見龍心強吻LuLu，反而見到她和Naomi相當享受龍心當日的「表演」，有講有笑之餘，LuLu和Naomi看到龍心跳舞更拍爛手掌，Naomi又幫龍心拍片，完全不覺LuLu有幾驚。
Saturday, July 21, 2012
【渾身是膽】王敏德 袁詠儀 陳小春 (YouTube)
王敏德飾演的職業大盜，找上堪稱“神槍手”的李香凝，欲前往東歐偷竊“沙皇之星”，他們的盜寶詭計被陳小春與袁詠儀得知，因此要求加入，王敏德拒諸門外，陳與袁忿而自行提前盜寶。盜寶行動失諸交臂，王敏德情急下抓了袁詠儀，和買家交涉，欲逼出私吞鑽石的陳小春。就在一連串追逐、混戰中，陳小春意外身亡，其餘……
Friday, July 20, 2012
【星島日報】受累資產大減值 軟件銷售仍佳 微軟季蝕38億上市首見紅
(綜合報道)全球最大個人電腦軟件商微軟，錄得上市26年來首個季度淨虧損，主要受到5年前購入的一家網絡廣告商減值所拖累，但撇除減值項目後，盈利表現仍比市場預期理想；相比之下，互聯網搜索巨擘Google上季純利按年升11%，較市場預期為佳。
微軟上季錄得淨虧損4.92億美元（約38.3億港元）；每股虧損6美仙，是微軟在1986年上市以來首個季度虧損，主要受到該公司為2007年購入的網絡廣告商aQuantive減值62億美元影響。去年同期，微軟則錄得純利58.7億美元；每股盈利69美仙。
撇除減值每股賺67美仙
當年微軟以63億美元（491億港元）現金收購aQuantive，上季將其一次過減值62億美元，相當於將aQuantive價值完全撇銷，等如承認這次原本打算與死對頭Google爭奪網上廣告投資，徹底失敗。微軟早前已事先張揚說，今次減值是因為預期aQuantive網上業務增長速度不如預期，但強調對整體經營影響不大。
撇除減值因素後，微軟仍有每股盈利67美仙，好過市場此前預期的62美仙，得力於商務軟件銷售仍然堅挺。
Google賺217億增11%
微軟的主要競爭對手Google，上季純利按年升11%，達28億美元（約217億港元）；每股盈利8.42美元，主要受惠於網上搜索廣告點擊業務持續增長。若撇除5.6億美元的一筆過支出，Google每股盈利達10.12美元，優於分析師10.04美元的預測值。期內營業額按年升21%至83.6億美元，略遜84.1億美元的市場預測。
至於Google於今年5月份斥資125億美元收購的Motorola Mobility亦首次公布業績，上季錄得2.33億美元經營虧損。外界最為關注的手機硬件業務擴張問題，Google則諱莫如深。
微軟將於10月發售Windows8操作系統，但迄今尚未公布定單，該公司已同意目前的Windows XP、Windows Vista和Windows7用戶，在明年1月前以特價升級至Windows8。
兩家公司業績公布後，Google股價昨早段曾見608.76美元，升2.65%；微軟股價則見31.05美元，升1.26%。
微軟上季錄得淨虧損4.92億美元（約38.3億港元）；每股虧損6美仙，是微軟在1986年上市以來首個季度虧損，主要受到該公司為2007年購入的網絡廣告商aQuantive減值62億美元影響。去年同期，微軟則錄得純利58.7億美元；每股盈利69美仙。
撇除減值每股賺67美仙
當年微軟以63億美元（491億港元）現金收購aQuantive，上季將其一次過減值62億美元，相當於將aQuantive價值完全撇銷，等如承認這次原本打算與死對頭Google爭奪網上廣告投資，徹底失敗。微軟早前已事先張揚說，今次減值是因為預期aQuantive網上業務增長速度不如預期，但強調對整體經營影響不大。
撇除減值因素後，微軟仍有每股盈利67美仙，好過市場此前預期的62美仙，得力於商務軟件銷售仍然堅挺。
Google賺217億增11%
微軟的主要競爭對手Google，上季純利按年升11%，達28億美元（約217億港元）；每股盈利8.42美元，主要受惠於網上搜索廣告點擊業務持續增長。若撇除5.6億美元的一筆過支出，Google每股盈利達10.12美元，優於分析師10.04美元的預測值。期內營業額按年升21%至83.6億美元，略遜84.1億美元的市場預測。
至於Google於今年5月份斥資125億美元收購的Motorola Mobility亦首次公布業績，上季錄得2.33億美元經營虧損。外界最為關注的手機硬件業務擴張問題，Google則諱莫如深。
微軟將於10月發售Windows8操作系統，但迄今尚未公布定單，該公司已同意目前的Windows XP、Windows Vista和Windows7用戶，在明年1月前以特價升級至Windows8。
兩家公司業績公布後，Google股價昨早段曾見608.76美元，升2.65%；微軟股價則見31.05美元，升1.26%。
Buying Rally Encounters Resistance
Equity stock market advances starting the week but ends with a pullback on the last day of week. Although the gain is moderate, market participants are very cautious and ready to take profit if market exhibits weakness on resistance. More investors believe that market may have found the bottom and is consolidating on earning reports and European sovereign debt news which are moving market up and down.
Since smart money begins to buy on market fear as observed a few weeks ago, market participants later realize the move and slowly follow the herd to increase stock holdings. The buying favors to move market higher as sellers are reluctant to sell. With the gain on paper increases, some investors consider to take profit on earlier purchase during market bottom in last year. As market sentiment remains pessimistic, it is believed that market may turn back after the rally and provide opportunity to use the proceedings later to buy stocks back inexpensively.
Although broad market index have climbed back considerably from bottom in last year, equity stocks are still not favorite of investors. Stocks with the largest gain are mostly large-cap and dividend stocks. Investors remain averse to risk and lack of confidence in equity stocks.
Despite of market pessimism, smart money is finding bargain in a market where traders dominate. Since market manipulators no longer dump stocks on market pullback, institutional and individual investors begin to regain confidence in stocks.
Market shows sign of support from smart money. Market participants should cautiously use surplus cash reserve to pick bargains while speculators find opportunity in swing trading.
Tax Cuts Should End: Lawrence Summers
The United States should not extend Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans even as the so-called 'fiscal cliff' looms because it will perpetuate income inequality, says Larry Summers, former U.S. Treasury Secretary.
Instead, these revenues should go towards strengthening public education and ensuring that low-income students are presented with equal opportunities as their wealthy counterparts so that they can participate in the economy.
Tax breaks for the wealthy cannot continue to exist because it leads to a "perpetuation of privilege", Summers said in the editorial in the Financial Times on Sunday. Unless steps were taken to "responsibly" increase the burden on those with high income and redistribute the proceeds, the trend toward inequality will continue, he said.
Downgrade Anniversary Shows Investors Gained Buying U.S.
When Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating in August, predictions of serious fallout soon followed.
They were wrong. Almost a year later, mortgage rates have dropped to record lows, the government's borrowing costs have eased, the dollar and the benchmark S&P stock index are up, and global investors' enthusiasm for Treasury debt has strengthened.
"The U.S. Treasury is still the widest, deepest and most actively traded in the world," said Jeffrey Caughron, a partner at Baker Group LP in Oklahoma City, which advises community banks on investments of more than $40 billion. "That becomes all the more important when you have signs of weakening global economic growth and continued problems in Europe."
Still, there is broad agreement that the U.S. must address the long-term fiscal imbalances that have driven public debt up to 68 percent of gross domestic product. Ryan and other pessimists contend the country is benefiting from temporary forces such as a flight of capital from Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the Federal Reserve's "Operation Twist" program to buy long-term debt.
"Yield changes during the last year had nothing to do with the downgrade, but it had to do with everything else pushing yields lower," Belton said. "On the top of that list you have a massive flight to quality out of Europe, and the U.S. is a safe haven."
How Close Are We to New Great Depression?
The risk of a new depression - a sustained, severe recession - has struck fear into the heart of markets and driven monetary policy in developed economies since the current financial crisis began.
"When we broke the link between money and gold, this removed all constraints on credit creation. This explosion of credit created the world we live in, but it now seems that credit cannot expand any further because the private sector is incapable of repaying the debt it has already, and if credit begins to contract, there's a very real danger that we will collapse into a new Great Depression," he argued.
The explosion in cheap credit has been widely blamed for the global financial crisis, but the debate about how to fix the problem continues.
The Only Summer Market Strategy That’s Working
Since collapsing at the end of April the S&P500 has rallied, dropped and generally churned in a way at once nauseating and dull. The news and charts have shaken out both bulls and no matter what gets thrown at it the market simply refuses to collapse or, for that matter, climb a "wall of worry". Stocks are simply stuck, rattling between the mid and low 1,300 area.
Through it all there's been one strategy that's worked. It's hard to execute, embarrassingly simple and a Wall Street cliche': Buy the dips and sell the rips. That's it. If you've been buying when stocks are down 1%, then selling them into rallies, you've made money while others have struggled.
This isn't a stock picker's market. It's a macro-driven, sector play market. Sectors rise and fall as a group, driven by macro news rather than stock-specific factors. That makes it a brutal market to hedge but a decent place to trade.
When Safe Havens Become Bubbles
Safe haven is a lovely term indicating that an asset class, bank or company is rock solid, reliable and dependable. After years of financial crisis a safe haven asset feels like a port in a storm and investors have flocked into so-called safe haven assets like U.S., German and UK government debt.
The problem with this trend is that returns are low, with many investors now willing to pay for the privilege of lending money to governments who enjoy safe haven status. Preserving capital in volatile times is an art in itself, but one analyst says the safe haven play is now creating bubbles in safe haven assets, indicating losses could be just around the corner.
"No one wants to be a safe haven anymore," said Matthew Lynn, the founder of Strategy Economics on Wednesday.
"The Swiss and the Danes are already battling against it-and the other 'havens' that remain are becoming ridiculously over-valued," said Lynn.
"It is clear that Switzerland does not want to be a safe haven anymore. And anyone who parks their money there has to accept the central bank will be fighting them all the way."
Danish authorities last week cut a key interest rate below zero to deter investors. They don't want to be a safe haven any more than the Swiss do," said Lynn.
Global Economy: Crash or Gradual Slowdown?
The debate over whether the world's economy is facing a dramatic crash has gained traction in recent weeks, as the euro zone debt crisis continued to dominate headlines and worries about other major economies like the U.S. and China grew.
"We are going through one of the biggest structural changes that we have seen in the global economy since the 1971-73 process."
"We've got a generation of corporate treasurers scarred by 2008-09 thinking they don't want to rely on banks for short-term funding and trade finance. That creates a very different relationship. It creates a less leveraged but also less dynamic economy with lower trend growth going forward."
Some Firms Opt to Bring Manufacturing Back to U.S.
About 14% of U.S. companies surveyed by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor definitely plan to move some of their manufacturing back home—the latest sign of growing interest among executives in a strategy known as "reshoring."
Among the main reasons cited for reshoring: a desire to get products to market faster and respond rapidly to customer orders; savings from reduced transportation and warehousing; improved quality and protection of intellectual property.
MIT's Dr. Simchi-Levi said lower U.S. corporate taxes would help bring more manufacturing back. He said it wasn't yet clear whether the reshoring trend will result in a large amount of U.S. job growth. Some of the jobs will be low-paid assembly work, he noted.
Even so, he called reshoring an encouraging development: "Once you start this process, there is no telling where it ends."
Stocks vs. Bonds: Neither Are as Safe as You Think Says Trader
Ancient conventional wisdom says investors with a high tolerance for risk should skew their portfolios into stocks, while more conservative, longer term savers should lean towards bonds for more safety. As shown in the most recent data from Morningstar, the masses continue to run from stocks into the relative safety of bonds. In June alone $8.5 billion was yanked from equities, while more than $10b was invested in taxable bonds, and another $3.8b into munis.
According to Lincoln Ellis, chief investment officer at Strategic Financial Group, there's one big problem with the binary choice between stocks and bonds: it doesn't consider the possibility that both could collapse in tandem. Stocks, corporate bonds, Treasuries and munis are all being driven by the same forces. The upshot is that traditional notion of bonds -corporate or government- having more safety than equities is wrong.
Hedge fund industry assets sink as performance ebbed in second-quarter
Even though investors put a net $4.1 billion into hedge funds in the second quarter of 2012, it was not enough to offset performance losses at many funds that resulted in total industry assets shrinking.
Hedge fund capital dropped from $2.13 trillion in the first quarter to $2.1 trillion, with the average fund down 2.7 percent, fund tracking firm Hedge Fund Research said on Thursday.
About 70 percent of all hedge funds recorded net outflows of $39.2 billion last quarter, while the remaining 30 percent gained $43.3 billion in new capital, HFR said.
Since smart money begins to buy on market fear as observed a few weeks ago, market participants later realize the move and slowly follow the herd to increase stock holdings. The buying favors to move market higher as sellers are reluctant to sell. With the gain on paper increases, some investors consider to take profit on earlier purchase during market bottom in last year. As market sentiment remains pessimistic, it is believed that market may turn back after the rally and provide opportunity to use the proceedings later to buy stocks back inexpensively.
Although broad market index have climbed back considerably from bottom in last year, equity stocks are still not favorite of investors. Stocks with the largest gain are mostly large-cap and dividend stocks. Investors remain averse to risk and lack of confidence in equity stocks.
Despite of market pessimism, smart money is finding bargain in a market where traders dominate. Since market manipulators no longer dump stocks on market pullback, institutional and individual investors begin to regain confidence in stocks.
Market shows sign of support from smart money. Market participants should cautiously use surplus cash reserve to pick bargains while speculators find opportunity in swing trading.
Tax Cuts Should End: Lawrence Summers
The United States should not extend Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans even as the so-called 'fiscal cliff' looms because it will perpetuate income inequality, says Larry Summers, former U.S. Treasury Secretary.
Instead, these revenues should go towards strengthening public education and ensuring that low-income students are presented with equal opportunities as their wealthy counterparts so that they can participate in the economy.
Tax breaks for the wealthy cannot continue to exist because it leads to a "perpetuation of privilege", Summers said in the editorial in the Financial Times on Sunday. Unless steps were taken to "responsibly" increase the burden on those with high income and redistribute the proceeds, the trend toward inequality will continue, he said.
Downgrade Anniversary Shows Investors Gained Buying U.S.
When Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating in August, predictions of serious fallout soon followed.
They were wrong. Almost a year later, mortgage rates have dropped to record lows, the government's borrowing costs have eased, the dollar and the benchmark S&P stock index are up, and global investors' enthusiasm for Treasury debt has strengthened.
"The U.S. Treasury is still the widest, deepest and most actively traded in the world," said Jeffrey Caughron, a partner at Baker Group LP in Oklahoma City, which advises community banks on investments of more than $40 billion. "That becomes all the more important when you have signs of weakening global economic growth and continued problems in Europe."
Still, there is broad agreement that the U.S. must address the long-term fiscal imbalances that have driven public debt up to 68 percent of gross domestic product. Ryan and other pessimists contend the country is benefiting from temporary forces such as a flight of capital from Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the Federal Reserve's "Operation Twist" program to buy long-term debt.
"Yield changes during the last year had nothing to do with the downgrade, but it had to do with everything else pushing yields lower," Belton said. "On the top of that list you have a massive flight to quality out of Europe, and the U.S. is a safe haven."
How Close Are We to New Great Depression?
The risk of a new depression - a sustained, severe recession - has struck fear into the heart of markets and driven monetary policy in developed economies since the current financial crisis began.
"When we broke the link between money and gold, this removed all constraints on credit creation. This explosion of credit created the world we live in, but it now seems that credit cannot expand any further because the private sector is incapable of repaying the debt it has already, and if credit begins to contract, there's a very real danger that we will collapse into a new Great Depression," he argued.
The explosion in cheap credit has been widely blamed for the global financial crisis, but the debate about how to fix the problem continues.
The Only Summer Market Strategy That’s Working
Since collapsing at the end of April the S&P500 has rallied, dropped and generally churned in a way at once nauseating and dull. The news and charts have shaken out both bulls and no matter what gets thrown at it the market simply refuses to collapse or, for that matter, climb a "wall of worry". Stocks are simply stuck, rattling between the mid and low 1,300 area.
Through it all there's been one strategy that's worked. It's hard to execute, embarrassingly simple and a Wall Street cliche': Buy the dips and sell the rips. That's it. If you've been buying when stocks are down 1%, then selling them into rallies, you've made money while others have struggled.
This isn't a stock picker's market. It's a macro-driven, sector play market. Sectors rise and fall as a group, driven by macro news rather than stock-specific factors. That makes it a brutal market to hedge but a decent place to trade.
When Safe Havens Become Bubbles
Safe haven is a lovely term indicating that an asset class, bank or company is rock solid, reliable and dependable. After years of financial crisis a safe haven asset feels like a port in a storm and investors have flocked into so-called safe haven assets like U.S., German and UK government debt.
The problem with this trend is that returns are low, with many investors now willing to pay for the privilege of lending money to governments who enjoy safe haven status. Preserving capital in volatile times is an art in itself, but one analyst says the safe haven play is now creating bubbles in safe haven assets, indicating losses could be just around the corner.
"No one wants to be a safe haven anymore," said Matthew Lynn, the founder of Strategy Economics on Wednesday.
"The Swiss and the Danes are already battling against it-and the other 'havens' that remain are becoming ridiculously over-valued," said Lynn.
"It is clear that Switzerland does not want to be a safe haven anymore. And anyone who parks their money there has to accept the central bank will be fighting them all the way."
Danish authorities last week cut a key interest rate below zero to deter investors. They don't want to be a safe haven any more than the Swiss do," said Lynn.
Global Economy: Crash or Gradual Slowdown?
The debate over whether the world's economy is facing a dramatic crash has gained traction in recent weeks, as the euro zone debt crisis continued to dominate headlines and worries about other major economies like the U.S. and China grew.
"We are going through one of the biggest structural changes that we have seen in the global economy since the 1971-73 process."
"We've got a generation of corporate treasurers scarred by 2008-09 thinking they don't want to rely on banks for short-term funding and trade finance. That creates a very different relationship. It creates a less leveraged but also less dynamic economy with lower trend growth going forward."
Some Firms Opt to Bring Manufacturing Back to U.S.
About 14% of U.S. companies surveyed by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor definitely plan to move some of their manufacturing back home—the latest sign of growing interest among executives in a strategy known as "reshoring."
Among the main reasons cited for reshoring: a desire to get products to market faster and respond rapidly to customer orders; savings from reduced transportation and warehousing; improved quality and protection of intellectual property.
MIT's Dr. Simchi-Levi said lower U.S. corporate taxes would help bring more manufacturing back. He said it wasn't yet clear whether the reshoring trend will result in a large amount of U.S. job growth. Some of the jobs will be low-paid assembly work, he noted.
Even so, he called reshoring an encouraging development: "Once you start this process, there is no telling where it ends."
Stocks vs. Bonds: Neither Are as Safe as You Think Says Trader
Ancient conventional wisdom says investors with a high tolerance for risk should skew their portfolios into stocks, while more conservative, longer term savers should lean towards bonds for more safety. As shown in the most recent data from Morningstar, the masses continue to run from stocks into the relative safety of bonds. In June alone $8.5 billion was yanked from equities, while more than $10b was invested in taxable bonds, and another $3.8b into munis.
According to Lincoln Ellis, chief investment officer at Strategic Financial Group, there's one big problem with the binary choice between stocks and bonds: it doesn't consider the possibility that both could collapse in tandem. Stocks, corporate bonds, Treasuries and munis are all being driven by the same forces. The upshot is that traditional notion of bonds -corporate or government- having more safety than equities is wrong.
Hedge fund industry assets sink as performance ebbed in second-quarter
Even though investors put a net $4.1 billion into hedge funds in the second quarter of 2012, it was not enough to offset performance losses at many funds that resulted in total industry assets shrinking.
Hedge fund capital dropped from $2.13 trillion in the first quarter to $2.1 trillion, with the average fund down 2.7 percent, fund tracking firm Hedge Fund Research said on Thursday.
About 70 percent of all hedge funds recorded net outflows of $39.2 billion last quarter, while the remaining 30 percent gained $43.3 billion in new capital, HFR said.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
【蘋果日報】舞照跳28年就變 大富豪闊埋今晚
大富豪老闆羅焯接受本報專訪，坦言將自己一手創立的夜總會結束，很不捨得。阮斌攝
【本報訊】見證香港魚翅撈飯、紙醉金迷28載的大富豪夜總會，雖是「馬照跑、舞照跳、50年不變」諾言的標誌，但回歸15年來歷盡風浪，在內地及澳門左右夾擊下，伴隨着東方之珠逐漸褪色。昔日號稱亞洲第一的本港夜總會龍頭，今晚到了最後一夜，掌舵人羅焯無限欷歔：「做生意要跟住潮流走，再留戀都冇用！」
位於尖沙咀東部的大富豪夜總會今晚結業，結束28年輝煌歲月，不少市民趁最後一天，到門外拍照留念。大富豪於84年開業，當年以1億元打造，佔地7萬平方呎，裝修金碧輝煌，室內更放置一輛金色仿製名牌車而聞名。
大富豪今晚結業，有市民到門外拍照留念。
Sunday, July 15, 2012
【蘋果日報】自我提升課程 涉嫌性騷擾 逼女學員除剩Bra跳舞
除剩bra學麥當娜 上堂跳舞靠晒誇
一名參加了自我提升課程的女學員，指控男導師在課堂上要求學員裸跑，該女學員經不起游說和威迫，形容「好似俾人催眠」下，在導師及30多名學員面前脫光，只剩胸圍扮麥當娜跳舞；她回家後狂哭，將向平等機會委員會投訴遭性騷擾。
今年20多歲、樣貌娟好的阿心（化名），在位於上環的維思（The Rice）參加自我提升課程，已上完第一與第二階段課堂，「本來已經唔想上，但佢哋喺上完第二階段最尾嗰日派一大班人圍住我」；她吸取了上一階段「被圍」經驗，原本打算不帶信用卡希望可以脫身，「點知最後唔記得放低（在家），咁就出事喇」，結果被「碌」了7,800元參加第三階段課程。
阿心在維思上堂時被要求在30多人面前脫剩胸圍跳舞，感到被羞辱。 黃冠華攝
不願裸跑被趕出課室
6月15日上第一堂時，導師就要求學員要無條件服從其要求，並問學員：「如果要你哋裸跑你哋肯唔肯？」當時所有同學都舉手表示願意，只有阿心拒絕，於是導師將阿心趕出課室。在課室外，該公司有幾名男義工說服她返回課室；但入課室後，導師卻要求她扮麥當娜除剩Bra（胸圍）跳舞，當時其他學員並無脫衣。最後阿心只脫了外套，導師認為她冇誠意，再次將她趕出課室。
阿心說：「之後一名女職員同埋其中一位教練嘅阿媽，言之鑿鑿游說我話『我哋當年都只係除咗一粒鈕，個導師就會叫停』。」被游說近兩小時後，阿心終於再走入課室；課室內學員即起哄大叫「除衫！除衫！除衫！」阿心最終跟從指示，脫剩胸圍當眾跳舞。
事後她說：「我本身有返教會，平時一定唔會咁樣做，嗰一下感覺好似俾人催眠。」當她完成「創舉」後，所有學員一擁而上擁抱她表示安慰及支持。回家後，她自覺當眾受辱，「我喊咗好耐，好唔開心！」其後她前往警署備案。
本月6日晚上，記者以親友身份陪同阿心到維思要求道歉並退還課堂費用，姓李女負責人竟說當時課室內並無職員：「入面嗰位係返嚟幫手嘅畢業生。」她起初表示「過往亦有試過除衫，但冇出問題」，其後則改口向記者說：「你唔係我哋學員，我唔可以話畀你聽課程係點。」
曾游說女學員遵從導師指示的女職員（右），輕佻地表示不知道阿心被性騷擾，旁為另一位導師。
難循刑事控告該機構
維思透過律師行回覆本報查詢，指「該學員所提供的資料並不相符」，卻無說明有何不符；並指有部份課程「會有類似的情況發生，模仿明星表演或跳舞來展現自己的自信、熱情等」，該公司會有職員及律師聯絡該學員處理她的要求。該課程有一名導師，及六至八名義工組長。
律師梁永鏗表示，事主難以用刑事控告主辦機構，「已經係成年人，冇人用刀威脅要佢除衫，佢自願除的話唔可以告主辦人非禮」，但就可以經平機會以民事訴訟途徑追討，「要求事主喺30幾個學員面前除衫，已構成性騷擾」。
梁永鏗指，香港有關涉及催眠犯罪的案例不多，如果事主認為是因催眠而作出不自願行為，可以聯絡心理醫生及精神科醫生作評估以協助追討。
記者：盧勁業
炒燶iPhone網店拖數倒閉 21客報警 涉款500萬
【明報】iPhone「炒燶」後遺症陸續湧現。專門炒賣iPhone的網上公司「appletrading.net」聲稱因iPhone回收價大跌，加上內地嚴厲緝私致損失慘重，月初突然結業，21名市民報警稱交付iPhone等蘋果產品予該公司代售後血本無歸，損失達500萬元，案件已交由油尖警區重案組調查。
今次已是一個月內第二宗涉iPhone買賣的懷疑騙案，受害人總數已達70人及損失2300萬元。有警官呼籲市民勿向來歷不明公司繳付大額訂金或交付名貴手機供代售，並應盡量「一手交錢、一手交貨」。
「appletrading.net」成立近兩年，專門炒賣iPhone、iPad等蘋果產品，在網上頗具知名度。其經營模式是由散客先付貨，交予appletrading把手機運往內地脫手，數日後散客才收錢，散客藉此模式可獲較佳的收機價，但卻要承擔較高風險。
大陸加強緝私 兩度被緝獲
本月6日appletrading.net姓張負責人突在網上貼文，指公司因勁蝕500萬元，決定終止業務。他聲稱，結業主因有三，其一是連鎖影音店把大量蘋果「後門貨」以低價賣給先達商場的商店，加上蘋果產品回收市場萎縮，令iPhone回收價大跌；其二是去年蘋果舊款iPad曾大減價，令公司損失慘重；其三是大陸緝私力度加強，appletrading運貨返內地的運輸隊一年內兩度於內地被緝獲，令公司損失逾400部價值逾240萬元的iPhone 4S。
張先生稱對結業感內疚。據悉逾30客戶受損失，警方截至前晚9時已收到21名市民報案，指曾向appletrading提供電子產品後未能收回款項，涉款500萬元，案件正交由油尖警區重案組第三隊調查，警方指負責人曾向報案人稱因周轉不靈未能付款，警方暫列求警調查案，無人被捕。另警方東區重案組上月21日拘捕兩名21及27歲男子，指他們涉嫌詐騙，向同事訛稱有低於市價的iPhone 4S出售，騙走49名受害人共1800萬元。
iPhone「炒唔起」 收機店陸續結業
旺角先達商場多間手機店職員均指出，iPhone 4S炒風數個月前已完結，回收價已跌破零售價，有店主稱，估計主因是高階Android智能手機（如三星）漸興起及流行，他們預期即使新iPhone推出，數年前的炒賣神話未必能再現。由於買賣iPhone生意大減，有職員稱，估計場內約一成原專注iPhone回收買賣的商店近月已陸續結業易手，有先達手機店改為專攻出售手機配件或買賣流行Android手機，但利潤已大不如前，營業額跌近一半。
偷運內地風險高 交「大莊家」出售
對有炒賣iPhone的網上公司聲稱因大陸緝私等原因致虧損及結業，有業內人士拒作評論，但他指出，即使沒有緝私，單是數月前蘋果新iPad推出時意外地「炒唔起」，已令一些不惜工本從外國空運iPad水貨來港出售的先達店主損失慘重，大店動輒損失數十萬元。另有先達經營者表示，偷運iPhone返內地風險高，一旦被內地海關截獲即損失慘重，故他們寧願把iPhone交「大莊家」運返內地出售，減低風險。
明報記者 陳志偉 黃熙麗 莫凱琳 陳翔翎
全球最貴一房單位 1.76億開售
【明報】全球最貴一房住宅單位待售！這個位於日本東京、面積4430呎的一房單位「The House Minami-Azabu」，現以18億日圓（約1.76億港幣）開售，呎價近4萬港元。
屋主買下單位後花了年半時間裝修，由4房變成1房，並設有3個浴室、多媒體室、露台、後花園和衣帽間，並備有可以放200雙鞋的巨型鞋櫃，另外全屋家具都來自意大利高級家具品牌，牆壁、地板和門也是從意大利進口，而客廳有現代化壁爐，飯廳的設計風格則是日本特有的「料亭式」（Ryotei）。雖然單位只有1間睡房且售價高昂，但有多對夫婦和旅日外籍商人表示有興趣。
屋主買下單位後花了年半時間裝修，由4房變成1房，並設有3個浴室、多媒體室、露台、後花園和衣帽間，並備有可以放200雙鞋的巨型鞋櫃，另外全屋家具都來自意大利高級家具品牌，牆壁、地板和門也是從意大利進口，而客廳有現代化壁爐，飯廳的設計風格則是日本特有的「料亭式」（Ryotei）。雖然單位只有1間睡房且售價高昂，但有多對夫婦和旅日外籍商人表示有興趣。
Saturday, July 14, 2012
【香港寬頻bbTV】垂釣遇鯊魚搶食驚心動魄
本港泳灘早前懷疑有鯊魚出沒，一度要掛鯊魚旗警告泳客，不過在美國南卡羅來納州，鯊魚不單止在海岸現身這樣簡單，有人在碼頭釣魚時就引來鯊魚搶食，一齊留意驚心動魄的一幕。
Friday, July 13, 2012
Smart Money Accumulating Stocks; Trading Shares In Market Drained
Equity stock market continues to oscillate as liquidity drives market up and down. Although market participants sit on mountain of cash, there is reluctance to execute trades to buy or sell stocks. Institutional and individual investors suffer loss in last year during panic selling at the bottom and miss the rally in this year. Therefore it is preferred to wait and see if market will fall back again in a pessimistic market environment. But market gradually climbs back against wall of worry while there is always fear of sudden market collapse again. As a result investors remain cautious and find safety in money market or treasuries and bonds. On the other hand, knowing that market valuation is attractive, investors are not going to dump stocks during sell-off period and see that the core portfolio value rises along with market trend.
Economic activities create wealth and individuals are looking for wealth assets. Majority of people find safe haven in treasuries and bonds. However, smart money looking for opportunity in equity stocks is also growing. A few weeks ago, it is already observed that hot money are finding bargains in equity stocks despite market participants screaming for market collapse. During this consolidation period, investors are fear of panic selling on Euro zone debt crisis. However, market manipulators that spread the bad news are afraid to dump stocks. Seeing that selling pressure is limited, traders become very cautious of the risk of short covering rally for short stocks.
Trading activities remain low as market participants confidence stays at low level. From last year lesson of selling at bottom investors have learned not to sell at bottom. Therefore, unlike last year there is no panic sell-off in this year as market participants are holding the heavily trimmed core portfolio alongside with large amount of cash. The latter provides negligibly low return while the former appreciates in value despite a pessimistic market environment.
Fear makes investors to hold cash. Investors are averse to risk. Greed only makes investors to hold the portfolio instead of panic selling. Smart money sees the support and have already begun accumulation. The available trading shares in market decreases since long term investors and cash rich individuals and corporations are collecting shares from day traders. The frozen shares become wealth assets and may not return to the stock market in short term.
There are still a lot of uncertainties in the economy. Financial market remains turbulent in a sea of surplus capital. Actual economy is muddling through due to constrained capital liquidity because banks are extremely cautious in lending. Wealth inequality also have large impact on economic activities. Although global wealth grows steadily and surpasses the peak before the 2008 financial meltdown, average population is not benefited much. Large portion of the newly generated wealth becomes assets of the rich elites which does not enter into direct economic activity with multiplier effect. Nevertheless, assets price are buoyed by rising demand.
Equity stock market is manipulated in current environment. Speculators have ample liquidity to manipulate market movement in the desired direction. Although, pessimism dominates the market, investors are reluctant to sell. Market manipulators can no longer make profit from panic selling. Despite widespread expectation of market collapse, market recovers from bottom during panic selling in last year. Although profit taking from smart investors buying at bottom may be a drag on market, the recent inflow of capital from low return asset markets indicates increased investors risk appetite. Market participants should make use of this market cycle with bottoming in last year to strengthen the portfolio for long term appreciation. Traders and speculators can position to strengthen the portfolio on pullback and take profit when market rallies during oscillation cycles in a longer term cycle uptrend.
Roubini: My 'Perfect Storm' Is Unfolding Now
"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China.
In May, Roubini predicted four elements - stalling growth in the U.S., debt troubles in Europe, a slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and military conflict in Iran - would come together in to create a storm for the global economy in 2013.
Roubini said that unlike in 2008 when central banks had "policy bullets" to stimulate the global economy, this time around policymakers are "running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat."
Last week, he told CNBC that there is "virtually zero chance" that pump-priming by central banks will succeed, suggesting that policymakers should instead let the economic bust work itself through the system.
Why Gold and Treasuries Are Losing Safe Haven Status
At a time when the economy is weak, earnings growth is slowing and central banks all over the world are printing money, demand for so-called safe havens is outpacing supply. Simply put, there are not a lot of good, low risk places to park money anymore, and that especially applies to U.S. treasuries.
"I don't think Treasuries are the place to be at all if you're trying to protect your buying power over the long term," says Marc Lichtenfeld, Associate Investment Director at the Oxford Club and author of the book, Get Rich With Dividends. "They are safe in that you'll very likely get your money back, but they're not safe at all in terms of buying power," he adds in the attached video.
"To me, gold is a rock" he says. "Gold is only worth what people say it's worth."
It's all part of why Lichentenfeld is "very biased towards dividends" especially those from blue chip companies like McDonald's (MCD), which has raised its payout to shareholders every year since it was initiated in 1976. And best of all, their latest pay raise, so to speak, was 15%, more than enough to offset inflation and taxes and retain buying power.
Why Economy Is Slowing: 'Things Could Get Much Worse'
Measures like lowering interest rates and creating money for central banks to conduct trillions in asset purchases are "now seen as a sign of weakness rather than strength," said Andrew Kenningham, senior global economist at Capital Economics, a London-based forecasting firm.
That view is gaining validity as easing moves last week in Europe and China as well as the recent measure from the Federal Reserve have had little effect in financial markets.
"The most intractable factor is that many borrowers in developed countries are less interest-rate sensitive than in past easing cycles due to the overhang of debt that plagues the US and many other countries," Misra said.
The U.S. fiscal cliff remains the second part of the twin global policy trap, along with the missteps in Europe.
So what can governments do?
Some think the best solution is for them to do less, not more. Allowing the cash-rich private sector to sort out its own problems without government's interference likely would be painful but could be the only sustainable path to recovery.
Stick With Stocks, Despite Growing Economic Fears: Josh Brown
The laundry list of mega-risks piling up against stocks seems to be growing more precarious by day.
Europe's nearly three-year-old debt crisis remains a train wreck. The U.S. economy teeters on another recession as job growth slows. China's economy is slowing and some pundits see a harder landing rather than a soft one. And war with Iran over its nuclear ambitions looms in the wings.
What do these headwinds spell for stocks as markets set off into the second half of the year? A whole lot of nothing, according Josh Brown of Fusion Analytics; he says there's no place he'd rather place his and his clients' money than in stocks right now.
To sum it all, he writes on his blog:
So yeah, I know how much everything sucks…. And while I have no idea where the whole market is going, I have stocks/sectors on my screen taking bad news in stride and creeping up past new year highs, decade highs and all-time highs. So I'm sticking around to see what happens next.
Biggest Danger Right Now Is Not Being Invested: Pro
Not being invested in equities right now is one of the "most dangerous" things to do, according to Jack Bouroudjian, CEO of Bull and Bear Partners, who believes U.S. companies will beat Wall Street's estimates for second-quarter earnings.
Corporate America is "richer than ever before" and consumers have more disposable cash because of recent lower oil prices, Bouroudjian told CNBC on Tuesday, adding that the extra cash will boost earnings and bode well for stocks in the next few years.
Others are also recommending investors stay defensive because of weak earnings and slowing growth. King Lip, Chief Investment Officer of Baker Avenue Asset Management, said he expects a volatile few weeks during which companies report poor second-quarter earnings. He advises investors to stay in a "risk off" mode during this time and move into defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples.
"It seems that finally Europe's woes are showing up in earnings and China's slowdown is also showing up in earnings forecasts," Lip told CNBC Asia's"The Call". "So it appears that despite how strong balance sheets are for corporate America, generally speaking, forecasts are not bullish at all. We saw that from companies like Nike, Procter and Gamble, FedEx. We think it's going to be a tough slog for the earnings season."
Global Investors Are More Fearful Now Than 2008 Post-Lehman Era: Dempsey
By now, most Americans are aware of our record low interest rates, whether it's through a reduced mortgage payment, lower credit card charges or simply from hearing about the 10-year Treasury yielding 1.5%. What you may not know is that there are a dozen countries whose 10-year debt is yielding less than 2% right now, and that 7 of these are even lower than the U.S., including Switzerland, Japan, Hong Kong, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and Singapore.
"Around the world, the single narrative of collapse has taken hold," says Ed Dempsey, chief investment officer at Pension Partners. "Everyone is positioned for collapse."
Interestingly, the other side of this panic-like flight to quality is being matched by a panic-like flight from stocks. In fact, in a note to clients today, Stifel Nicolaus' David Lutz writes ''asset allocators at major retail firms have their equity weighting the lowest in over 15 years - well below 2009 levels which was a big mistake."
Fear and pessimism are clearly in charge and on a roll right now. The recent string of weak jobs data, talk of recession, the fiscal cliff, and slowing growth in Europe and China are all adding to investor angst.
"I'm not saying that the event can't happen or it won't happen, I'm simply saying that bond investors are positioned as if it [the cataclysmic event] has already occurred, and therein lies the opportunity," Dempsey says, painting a scenario that could see the S&P 500 finishing the year with a 30-40% gain.
While Dempsey says it is clear that we are in the midst of a slowdown, and probably headed officially for recession by the 3rd or 4th quarter, the current climate is just not that threatening.
Wealth and income inequality: Who gets left behind
Most Americans make more than their parents did, but that doesn't mean they're all moving up the economic ladder.
Some 84% of Americans have higher family incomes than their parents had at the same age, according to a new report from the Pew Economic Mobility Project. And 93% of those who grew up in the poorest fifth of the income ladder exceed their parents' family income as adults.
Pew also looked at the overall wealth distribution of the parents and their children. Over the generation, only the top two tiers saw median family wealth increase, by 27% for the wealthiest and 29% for the next level down.
The middle wealth tier, meanwhile, lost 5%.
Those at the lowest wealth rung lost a whopping 63%, dropping from a median family wealth of $7,439 in the parents' generation to $2,748 in the children's.
Getting a college degree is also a ticket to economic mobility. For those raised at the bottom of the income ladder, nearly one half of children were stuck there as adults if they didn't go to college. But only 10% of those with a college degree remained at the bottom.
One main reason that children have more family wealth than their parents is because of the increasing number of married women in the workforce. Though men's earnings gains have been slowing, women have been making up the difference.
"Mobility is more and more a family enterprise," Currier said. "Families are moving up the income and wealth ladders because of second earners."
It’s Too Expensive to Be Defensive: Dempsey
If Macy's put signs in its windows, suddenly announcing that everything was 25% off, people would be lined up in the street looking to take advantage of the deal. On Wall Street however low prices seem to be a deterrent. Right now the safest assets continue to be priced up, while riskier investments are being ignored. In short, it's become very expensive to be defensive.
And it's not just the stock market. Bond markets at home and around the world are also pushing the limits on price.
"It feels terrible. It really does. It feels really bad" says Dempsey of the current state of unease that has fueled the aversion to risk. "Investors have positioned inside the stock market for a crash that has not happened."
Even so, every trend has limits and at some point the clouds over Europe and China will subside and the appetite for risk will come back. The trick is not only being able to spot the turn, but having the conviction to buy risk assets when they're inexpensive and out of favor.
Alan Greenspan Sees 'Two Separate Economies'
There is a unique, structural imbalance in the U.S. economy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday on CNBC.
"It may be a recession, but I'm not seeing it at the moment, and it's not relevant as far as I can see," he said in an interview on "The Kudlow Report."
"The best way I would describe it is to think in terms of two separate economies," he said. "One is probably 90, 92 percent of the GDP and is doing actually reasonably well. The other 8 percent is largely structures or more exactly, long-lived assets. The attitude of business and households against committing to long-lived assets is extraordinarily suppressed."
"I will say this, however, that the data do show that the expansion of assets has had very little impact on the economy, for an important reason, that we've created a major increase in the asset side of the Fed balance sheet and a very large trillion and a half increase in excess reserves," he said.
But, Greenspan added, there is no evidence that what were essentially deposits into the Federal Reserve Bank system were being re-loaned.
Meanwhile, the effect of nearly $1 trillion of government stimulus spending appeared counterintuitive.
Greenspan added that the data show that this "extraordinary expansion" in the deficit is crowding out private-sector investment, a result he said "shocked" him.
"But what it is, if it's not AAA corporates that are being pushed out or even probably BBB, investment grade, there is major evidence that the extraordinary rise in the deficit is pre-empting the savings that usually fund capital investment," he said. "But where it is, is it's heavily concentrated in those areas which pay high interest rates. I mean, to be sure, at 2 percent, you're not going to be stopped by anything."
Smaller businesses, Greenspan pointed out, would have to pay higher rates. And that has a broad impact.
The Rich, Very Rich, and, Now, the 'Volatile' Rich
The rich tend to be lumped together as one economic group, as if people earning $250,000 a year (or even $1 million a year) are pretty much the same as those making $50 million.
But a new analysis of top incomes tells us that there is a big difference between the super-rich and the merely rich in how they earn money.
The "fortunate 400" - or top 400 earners - make much more of their income from capital gains and other income than from salaries and wages, which account for only 9 percent of their income. Capital gains as a share of their income has also fallen, from 72 percent in 2000 to 46 percent in 2009.
What does this tell us? That those making $1 million or more are the "salaried rich," since they make more of their money from ordinary income. The super-rich make more of their money from one-time capital gains from the sale of stock or a business.
Economic activities create wealth and individuals are looking for wealth assets. Majority of people find safe haven in treasuries and bonds. However, smart money looking for opportunity in equity stocks is also growing. A few weeks ago, it is already observed that hot money are finding bargains in equity stocks despite market participants screaming for market collapse. During this consolidation period, investors are fear of panic selling on Euro zone debt crisis. However, market manipulators that spread the bad news are afraid to dump stocks. Seeing that selling pressure is limited, traders become very cautious of the risk of short covering rally for short stocks.
Trading activities remain low as market participants confidence stays at low level. From last year lesson of selling at bottom investors have learned not to sell at bottom. Therefore, unlike last year there is no panic sell-off in this year as market participants are holding the heavily trimmed core portfolio alongside with large amount of cash. The latter provides negligibly low return while the former appreciates in value despite a pessimistic market environment.
Fear makes investors to hold cash. Investors are averse to risk. Greed only makes investors to hold the portfolio instead of panic selling. Smart money sees the support and have already begun accumulation. The available trading shares in market decreases since long term investors and cash rich individuals and corporations are collecting shares from day traders. The frozen shares become wealth assets and may not return to the stock market in short term.
There are still a lot of uncertainties in the economy. Financial market remains turbulent in a sea of surplus capital. Actual economy is muddling through due to constrained capital liquidity because banks are extremely cautious in lending. Wealth inequality also have large impact on economic activities. Although global wealth grows steadily and surpasses the peak before the 2008 financial meltdown, average population is not benefited much. Large portion of the newly generated wealth becomes assets of the rich elites which does not enter into direct economic activity with multiplier effect. Nevertheless, assets price are buoyed by rising demand.
Equity stock market is manipulated in current environment. Speculators have ample liquidity to manipulate market movement in the desired direction. Although, pessimism dominates the market, investors are reluctant to sell. Market manipulators can no longer make profit from panic selling. Despite widespread expectation of market collapse, market recovers from bottom during panic selling in last year. Although profit taking from smart investors buying at bottom may be a drag on market, the recent inflow of capital from low return asset markets indicates increased investors risk appetite. Market participants should make use of this market cycle with bottoming in last year to strengthen the portfolio for long term appreciation. Traders and speculators can position to strengthen the portfolio on pullback and take profit when market rallies during oscillation cycles in a longer term cycle uptrend.
Roubini: My 'Perfect Storm' Is Unfolding Now
"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China.
In May, Roubini predicted four elements - stalling growth in the U.S., debt troubles in Europe, a slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and military conflict in Iran - would come together in to create a storm for the global economy in 2013.
Roubini said that unlike in 2008 when central banks had "policy bullets" to stimulate the global economy, this time around policymakers are "running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat."
Last week, he told CNBC that there is "virtually zero chance" that pump-priming by central banks will succeed, suggesting that policymakers should instead let the economic bust work itself through the system.
Why Gold and Treasuries Are Losing Safe Haven Status
At a time when the economy is weak, earnings growth is slowing and central banks all over the world are printing money, demand for so-called safe havens is outpacing supply. Simply put, there are not a lot of good, low risk places to park money anymore, and that especially applies to U.S. treasuries.
"I don't think Treasuries are the place to be at all if you're trying to protect your buying power over the long term," says Marc Lichtenfeld, Associate Investment Director at the Oxford Club and author of the book, Get Rich With Dividends. "They are safe in that you'll very likely get your money back, but they're not safe at all in terms of buying power," he adds in the attached video.
"To me, gold is a rock" he says. "Gold is only worth what people say it's worth."
It's all part of why Lichentenfeld is "very biased towards dividends" especially those from blue chip companies like McDonald's (MCD), which has raised its payout to shareholders every year since it was initiated in 1976. And best of all, their latest pay raise, so to speak, was 15%, more than enough to offset inflation and taxes and retain buying power.
Why Economy Is Slowing: 'Things Could Get Much Worse'
Measures like lowering interest rates and creating money for central banks to conduct trillions in asset purchases are "now seen as a sign of weakness rather than strength," said Andrew Kenningham, senior global economist at Capital Economics, a London-based forecasting firm.
That view is gaining validity as easing moves last week in Europe and China as well as the recent measure from the Federal Reserve have had little effect in financial markets.
"The most intractable factor is that many borrowers in developed countries are less interest-rate sensitive than in past easing cycles due to the overhang of debt that plagues the US and many other countries," Misra said.
The U.S. fiscal cliff remains the second part of the twin global policy trap, along with the missteps in Europe.
So what can governments do?
Some think the best solution is for them to do less, not more. Allowing the cash-rich private sector to sort out its own problems without government's interference likely would be painful but could be the only sustainable path to recovery.
Stick With Stocks, Despite Growing Economic Fears: Josh Brown
The laundry list of mega-risks piling up against stocks seems to be growing more precarious by day.
Europe's nearly three-year-old debt crisis remains a train wreck. The U.S. economy teeters on another recession as job growth slows. China's economy is slowing and some pundits see a harder landing rather than a soft one. And war with Iran over its nuclear ambitions looms in the wings.
What do these headwinds spell for stocks as markets set off into the second half of the year? A whole lot of nothing, according Josh Brown of Fusion Analytics; he says there's no place he'd rather place his and his clients' money than in stocks right now.
To sum it all, he writes on his blog:
So yeah, I know how much everything sucks…. And while I have no idea where the whole market is going, I have stocks/sectors on my screen taking bad news in stride and creeping up past new year highs, decade highs and all-time highs. So I'm sticking around to see what happens next.
Biggest Danger Right Now Is Not Being Invested: Pro
Not being invested in equities right now is one of the "most dangerous" things to do, according to Jack Bouroudjian, CEO of Bull and Bear Partners, who believes U.S. companies will beat Wall Street's estimates for second-quarter earnings.
Corporate America is "richer than ever before" and consumers have more disposable cash because of recent lower oil prices, Bouroudjian told CNBC on Tuesday, adding that the extra cash will boost earnings and bode well for stocks in the next few years.
Others are also recommending investors stay defensive because of weak earnings and slowing growth. King Lip, Chief Investment Officer of Baker Avenue Asset Management, said he expects a volatile few weeks during which companies report poor second-quarter earnings. He advises investors to stay in a "risk off" mode during this time and move into defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples.
"It seems that finally Europe's woes are showing up in earnings and China's slowdown is also showing up in earnings forecasts," Lip told CNBC Asia's"The Call". "So it appears that despite how strong balance sheets are for corporate America, generally speaking, forecasts are not bullish at all. We saw that from companies like Nike, Procter and Gamble, FedEx. We think it's going to be a tough slog for the earnings season."
Global Investors Are More Fearful Now Than 2008 Post-Lehman Era: Dempsey
By now, most Americans are aware of our record low interest rates, whether it's through a reduced mortgage payment, lower credit card charges or simply from hearing about the 10-year Treasury yielding 1.5%. What you may not know is that there are a dozen countries whose 10-year debt is yielding less than 2% right now, and that 7 of these are even lower than the U.S., including Switzerland, Japan, Hong Kong, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and Singapore.
"Around the world, the single narrative of collapse has taken hold," says Ed Dempsey, chief investment officer at Pension Partners. "Everyone is positioned for collapse."
Interestingly, the other side of this panic-like flight to quality is being matched by a panic-like flight from stocks. In fact, in a note to clients today, Stifel Nicolaus' David Lutz writes ''asset allocators at major retail firms have their equity weighting the lowest in over 15 years - well below 2009 levels which was a big mistake."
Fear and pessimism are clearly in charge and on a roll right now. The recent string of weak jobs data, talk of recession, the fiscal cliff, and slowing growth in Europe and China are all adding to investor angst.
"I'm not saying that the event can't happen or it won't happen, I'm simply saying that bond investors are positioned as if it [the cataclysmic event] has already occurred, and therein lies the opportunity," Dempsey says, painting a scenario that could see the S&P 500 finishing the year with a 30-40% gain.
While Dempsey says it is clear that we are in the midst of a slowdown, and probably headed officially for recession by the 3rd or 4th quarter, the current climate is just not that threatening.
Wealth and income inequality: Who gets left behind
Most Americans make more than their parents did, but that doesn't mean they're all moving up the economic ladder.
Some 84% of Americans have higher family incomes than their parents had at the same age, according to a new report from the Pew Economic Mobility Project. And 93% of those who grew up in the poorest fifth of the income ladder exceed their parents' family income as adults.
Pew also looked at the overall wealth distribution of the parents and their children. Over the generation, only the top two tiers saw median family wealth increase, by 27% for the wealthiest and 29% for the next level down.
The middle wealth tier, meanwhile, lost 5%.
Those at the lowest wealth rung lost a whopping 63%, dropping from a median family wealth of $7,439 in the parents' generation to $2,748 in the children's.
Getting a college degree is also a ticket to economic mobility. For those raised at the bottom of the income ladder, nearly one half of children were stuck there as adults if they didn't go to college. But only 10% of those with a college degree remained at the bottom.
One main reason that children have more family wealth than their parents is because of the increasing number of married women in the workforce. Though men's earnings gains have been slowing, women have been making up the difference.
"Mobility is more and more a family enterprise," Currier said. "Families are moving up the income and wealth ladders because of second earners."
It’s Too Expensive to Be Defensive: Dempsey
If Macy's put signs in its windows, suddenly announcing that everything was 25% off, people would be lined up in the street looking to take advantage of the deal. On Wall Street however low prices seem to be a deterrent. Right now the safest assets continue to be priced up, while riskier investments are being ignored. In short, it's become very expensive to be defensive.
And it's not just the stock market. Bond markets at home and around the world are also pushing the limits on price.
"It feels terrible. It really does. It feels really bad" says Dempsey of the current state of unease that has fueled the aversion to risk. "Investors have positioned inside the stock market for a crash that has not happened."
Even so, every trend has limits and at some point the clouds over Europe and China will subside and the appetite for risk will come back. The trick is not only being able to spot the turn, but having the conviction to buy risk assets when they're inexpensive and out of favor.
Alan Greenspan Sees 'Two Separate Economies'
There is a unique, structural imbalance in the U.S. economy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday on CNBC.
"It may be a recession, but I'm not seeing it at the moment, and it's not relevant as far as I can see," he said in an interview on "The Kudlow Report."
"The best way I would describe it is to think in terms of two separate economies," he said. "One is probably 90, 92 percent of the GDP and is doing actually reasonably well. The other 8 percent is largely structures or more exactly, long-lived assets. The attitude of business and households against committing to long-lived assets is extraordinarily suppressed."
"I will say this, however, that the data do show that the expansion of assets has had very little impact on the economy, for an important reason, that we've created a major increase in the asset side of the Fed balance sheet and a very large trillion and a half increase in excess reserves," he said.
But, Greenspan added, there is no evidence that what were essentially deposits into the Federal Reserve Bank system were being re-loaned.
Meanwhile, the effect of nearly $1 trillion of government stimulus spending appeared counterintuitive.
Greenspan added that the data show that this "extraordinary expansion" in the deficit is crowding out private-sector investment, a result he said "shocked" him.
"But what it is, if it's not AAA corporates that are being pushed out or even probably BBB, investment grade, there is major evidence that the extraordinary rise in the deficit is pre-empting the savings that usually fund capital investment," he said. "But where it is, is it's heavily concentrated in those areas which pay high interest rates. I mean, to be sure, at 2 percent, you're not going to be stopped by anything."
Smaller businesses, Greenspan pointed out, would have to pay higher rates. And that has a broad impact.
The Rich, Very Rich, and, Now, the 'Volatile' Rich
The rich tend to be lumped together as one economic group, as if people earning $250,000 a year (or even $1 million a year) are pretty much the same as those making $50 million.
But a new analysis of top incomes tells us that there is a big difference between the super-rich and the merely rich in how they earn money.
The "fortunate 400" - or top 400 earners - make much more of their income from capital gains and other income than from salaries and wages, which account for only 9 percent of their income. Capital gains as a share of their income has also fallen, from 72 percent in 2000 to 46 percent in 2009.
What does this tell us? That those making $1 million or more are the "salaried rich," since they make more of their money from ordinary income. The super-rich make more of their money from one-time capital gains from the sale of stock or a business.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Friday, July 6, 2012
【蘋果日報】人民力量黃洋達派書 諷刺領匯趕走細舖
人民力量黃洋達，到領匯樂富廣場對出擺街站，派《尋味九龍》一書，介紹九龍區食肆，幫小店免費宣傳，以諷刺早前領匯推出的《尋味》。
他指，領匯年年加租，是趕走小商舖，加入連鎖店的罪魁禍首。他又斥政府社區重建令社區消失，取而代之的卻是豪宅與發水樓。
黃洋達亦表示，民主黨、民建聯與工聯會促成領匯上市，屬表面關注民生，實際支持財團，呼籲市民9月9號投票，踢走保皇黨與偽民主派。
黃洋達將代表人民力量出選立法會。
他指，領匯年年加租，是趕走小商舖，加入連鎖店的罪魁禍首。他又斥政府社區重建令社區消失，取而代之的卻是豪宅與發水樓。
黃洋達亦表示，民主黨、民建聯與工聯會促成領匯上市，屬表面關注民生，實際支持財團，呼籲市民9月9號投票，踢走保皇黨與偽民主派。
黃洋達將代表人民力量出選立法會。
【蘋果日報】隔牆有耳：教主下旨 馬草泥出擊九龍西
江湖傳聞，人民力量近日氣勢勁，教主喺九龍西贏到開巷係必然嘅事；佢一個人攞一個位，要咁多票，冇用嘅，票王虛銜啫，有人覺得教主不如帶挈吓啲細好過啦。之前有人提議九西開多條隊，如果可以託教主鴻福，隨時攞多一席，不過講唔掂數。
近日有人又醞釀呢個分隊方案，馬草泥蠢蠢欲動，據聞佢已搞掂綠卡問題，目前萬事俱備，只欠東風。至於東風幾時吹，佢同八方一樣，未知道。熟悉選情人士指，教主在九西好穩陣，9月去九東全力捧皇上，九西交由馬草泥打拼，擸啲民主黨同右派票，有機會攞多一席。
近日有人又醞釀呢個分隊方案，馬草泥蠢蠢欲動，據聞佢已搞掂綠卡問題，目前萬事俱備，只欠東風。至於東風幾時吹，佢同八方一樣，未知道。熟悉選情人士指，教主在九西好穩陣，9月去九東全力捧皇上，九西交由馬草泥打拼，擸啲民主黨同右派票，有機會攞多一席。
Market Wavers; Investors Remain Calm
Equity stock market continues to oscillate. The rebound from recent bottom in June appears to encounter resistance. Market participants are cautious as market stays on uptrend.
From traders perspective, current market cycle is very similar to last year. In the beginning market climbs on wall of worry, investors do not have confidence and prefer to allocate assets to money market. Then market reaches the top and market manipulators start to dump stocks to take profit. With insider knowledge of European sovereign debt and US rating downgrade, market manipulators further beat down market with heavy short selling to create panic selling among institutional and individual investors. Market manipulators made significant profit on heavy selling and finally closed the short positions at the year end.
The rally resumes since start of this year as market manipulators have closed the short positions and cannot create panic sell-off among market participants. Similar to last year, the rally continues when investors are cautious and do not have confidence. Now it appears that market may have reached the top and is consolidating.
Market participants realize that recent top may have already appeared and expect significant pullback or even market collapse like the drop triggered by US rating downgrade in last year. The trend observed from the perspective of charting shows that market collapse may be coming after oscillation at the top. As a result, institutional and individual investors are staying on the sideline with hefty cash.
Traders and market manipulators may repeat to beat down market like last year as there are lots of news such as US rating, debt ceiling, Euro zone crisis, etc. However, unlike last year, market participants have the highest percentage in cash and least incentive to dump stocks. Therefore it is doubtful whether the panic sell-off will repeat in this year.
Market may oscillate violently due to excess capital in financial market. However, this is also a good opportunity for speculators with insight in market mechanism. Risk mitigation is the most important consideration since current market environment is highly manipulated and short term market movement relies more on capital movement rather than economic condition.
Will Earnings Season Turn Into Warning Season
CNBC.com's Jeff Cox discusses what investors can expect from the upcoming earnings season. "Almost 4 to 1, companies are saying they are going to do worse than they originally thought," says Cox. Europe is hitting U.S. companies.
Income Inequality is America’s Biggest Challenge: United Nations Economist
In "The Measure of a Nation: How to Regain America's Competitive Edge and Boost Our Global Standing" statistician and United Nations health economist Howard Friedman compares the United States to 13 other wealthy nations in five key categories: health, education, safety, democracy and equality. His analysis and conclusions are alarming: the U.S. has fallen far behind in most of these areas, causing the nation to become "the Dog" when juxtaposed to its Asian and Western European competitors.
According to Friedman, the biggest challenge for the U.S. centers on the nation's rising income inequality, a problem that led to the Occupy Wall Street protests and one that has become a central theme of President Obama's reelection campaign. The U.S. "has substantially higher levels of income and wealth inequality than our competition," according to Friedman, and Americans' "staunch faith" in U.S. meritocracy is a misconception derived from false notions.
"The U.S. has far less social mobility than other wealthy countries," he says. "The American dream of this social mobility actually turns out to be a myth. The top student from a poor neighborhood has roughly the same chance of graduating college as the worst student from a wealthy neighborhood. That's not a meritocracy. And that leads us to a system where those who have the most will continue to have more and more and the rest will struggle."
BRICs Priced for Economic Meltdown
The biggest emerging markets are contributing more than ever to the global economy as their proportion of the world stock market shrinks, leaving investors with the widest valuation gap in seven years.
“Unless we are seeing a major collapse of those economies, it’s a huge opportunity for investors,” O’Neill, who helps oversee $824 billion, said in a June 28 phone interview. The BRIC stock markets may double by 2020 as their share of world gross domestic product increases to about 27 percent, he said.
“Equity markets have started to anticipate much more difficult economic times in these countries,” Shaoul said in a June 28 phone interview from New York. “The balance of risks is to the downside.”
“The emerging markets are a place to be,” Byron Wien, the vice chairman of Blackstone Group LP’s advisory services unit, said in a June 26 interview on Bloomberg Radio in New York. “They’ve done poorly but now prices have come down to very attractive levels.”
Oil Prices May Have Hit Bottom: Expert Sees Energy Prices Rising
Global energy prices are moving sharply higher Tuesday morning on news that Iran was attempting to disrupt oil supplies by blocking the Strait of Hormuz waterway. Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time in three weeks and U.S. oil futures for August delivery gained nearly 5 percent mid-morning before easing to $87.71 a barrel.
Heinsohn says Iran's saber rattling in April was a big part for the jump in energy prices but other factors this summer season will keep prices elevated. Hurricanes, greater consumer demand and now the U.S. and European Iranian oil embargoes will drive oil and gasoline prices higher until at least September.
There are bearish factors on the supply side that could offset any major price spikes including increased oil production by Saudia Arabia and a commitment by world leaders to tap oil reserves.
The Secret Word: Deflation
Inflation reigned for 75 years, from 1933 to 2008. People are so used to it that they cannot imagine the opposite monetary environment. Bullish economists have been calling for recovery, which means more inflation, and bearish advisors have been calling for a crash in the dollar, which means hyperinflation.
Deflation explains:
1) Why interest rates on highly rated bonds are at their lowest levels in the history of the country;
2) Why the velocity of money is the lowest since the 1930s;
3) Why huge sectors among investment markets are down over 40%;
4) Why the Consumer Price Index (CPI) just had its biggest down month since 2008;
5) Why Europe is in turmoil.
That's right: Ten-year Treasury notes pay out less than 1.5% annually, their lowest rate since the founding of the Republic. Treasury bills yield essentially zero, their lowest level ever. The velocity of money failed to rise during the past three years of partial economic recovery, and it recently made new lows. Real estate prices have fallen 45% in the past six years. Commodity prices — as measured by the CRB Index — are down 45% in just four years. This group includes oil and silver, two of the most hyped investments of the past decade. Remember in March when articles quoted analysts calling for $5, $6 and $8-per-gallon gasoline? In just three months since then, gas prices have fallen 13%, knocking the CPI into negative territory.
Ironically, investors in the past decade have been doing exactly the opposite of preparing for deflation. Convinced of perpetually rising prices, they have bought every major investment. They chased real estate up to a peak in 2006. They bought blue chip stocks into the high of 2007. They pushed commodities up to a peak in 2008. They chased gold and silver up to highs in 2011. And through spring 2012, they continued to buy stocks and commodities on any rumor that promised inflation: European bank bailouts, Operation Twist, the Greek election, Group-of-8 summits, Fed meetings, Bernanke press conferences, improved economic numbers, predictions of QE3, you name it. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index hasn't made a new low for four years. During deflationary times, cash is king, and investors have chosen to own anything but cash.
From traders perspective, current market cycle is very similar to last year. In the beginning market climbs on wall of worry, investors do not have confidence and prefer to allocate assets to money market. Then market reaches the top and market manipulators start to dump stocks to take profit. With insider knowledge of European sovereign debt and US rating downgrade, market manipulators further beat down market with heavy short selling to create panic selling among institutional and individual investors. Market manipulators made significant profit on heavy selling and finally closed the short positions at the year end.
The rally resumes since start of this year as market manipulators have closed the short positions and cannot create panic sell-off among market participants. Similar to last year, the rally continues when investors are cautious and do not have confidence. Now it appears that market may have reached the top and is consolidating.
Market participants realize that recent top may have already appeared and expect significant pullback or even market collapse like the drop triggered by US rating downgrade in last year. The trend observed from the perspective of charting shows that market collapse may be coming after oscillation at the top. As a result, institutional and individual investors are staying on the sideline with hefty cash.
Traders and market manipulators may repeat to beat down market like last year as there are lots of news such as US rating, debt ceiling, Euro zone crisis, etc. However, unlike last year, market participants have the highest percentage in cash and least incentive to dump stocks. Therefore it is doubtful whether the panic sell-off will repeat in this year.
Market may oscillate violently due to excess capital in financial market. However, this is also a good opportunity for speculators with insight in market mechanism. Risk mitigation is the most important consideration since current market environment is highly manipulated and short term market movement relies more on capital movement rather than economic condition.
Will Earnings Season Turn Into Warning Season
CNBC.com's Jeff Cox discusses what investors can expect from the upcoming earnings season. "Almost 4 to 1, companies are saying they are going to do worse than they originally thought," says Cox. Europe is hitting U.S. companies.
Income Inequality is America’s Biggest Challenge: United Nations Economist
In "The Measure of a Nation: How to Regain America's Competitive Edge and Boost Our Global Standing" statistician and United Nations health economist Howard Friedman compares the United States to 13 other wealthy nations in five key categories: health, education, safety, democracy and equality. His analysis and conclusions are alarming: the U.S. has fallen far behind in most of these areas, causing the nation to become "the Dog" when juxtaposed to its Asian and Western European competitors.
According to Friedman, the biggest challenge for the U.S. centers on the nation's rising income inequality, a problem that led to the Occupy Wall Street protests and one that has become a central theme of President Obama's reelection campaign. The U.S. "has substantially higher levels of income and wealth inequality than our competition," according to Friedman, and Americans' "staunch faith" in U.S. meritocracy is a misconception derived from false notions.
"The U.S. has far less social mobility than other wealthy countries," he says. "The American dream of this social mobility actually turns out to be a myth. The top student from a poor neighborhood has roughly the same chance of graduating college as the worst student from a wealthy neighborhood. That's not a meritocracy. And that leads us to a system where those who have the most will continue to have more and more and the rest will struggle."
BRICs Priced for Economic Meltdown
The biggest emerging markets are contributing more than ever to the global economy as their proportion of the world stock market shrinks, leaving investors with the widest valuation gap in seven years.
“Unless we are seeing a major collapse of those economies, it’s a huge opportunity for investors,” O’Neill, who helps oversee $824 billion, said in a June 28 phone interview. The BRIC stock markets may double by 2020 as their share of world gross domestic product increases to about 27 percent, he said.
“Equity markets have started to anticipate much more difficult economic times in these countries,” Shaoul said in a June 28 phone interview from New York. “The balance of risks is to the downside.”
“The emerging markets are a place to be,” Byron Wien, the vice chairman of Blackstone Group LP’s advisory services unit, said in a June 26 interview on Bloomberg Radio in New York. “They’ve done poorly but now prices have come down to very attractive levels.”
Oil Prices May Have Hit Bottom: Expert Sees Energy Prices Rising
Global energy prices are moving sharply higher Tuesday morning on news that Iran was attempting to disrupt oil supplies by blocking the Strait of Hormuz waterway. Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time in three weeks and U.S. oil futures for August delivery gained nearly 5 percent mid-morning before easing to $87.71 a barrel.
Heinsohn says Iran's saber rattling in April was a big part for the jump in energy prices but other factors this summer season will keep prices elevated. Hurricanes, greater consumer demand and now the U.S. and European Iranian oil embargoes will drive oil and gasoline prices higher until at least September.
There are bearish factors on the supply side that could offset any major price spikes including increased oil production by Saudia Arabia and a commitment by world leaders to tap oil reserves.
The Secret Word: Deflation
Inflation reigned for 75 years, from 1933 to 2008. People are so used to it that they cannot imagine the opposite monetary environment. Bullish economists have been calling for recovery, which means more inflation, and bearish advisors have been calling for a crash in the dollar, which means hyperinflation.
Deflation explains:
1) Why interest rates on highly rated bonds are at their lowest levels in the history of the country;
2) Why the velocity of money is the lowest since the 1930s;
3) Why huge sectors among investment markets are down over 40%;
4) Why the Consumer Price Index (CPI) just had its biggest down month since 2008;
5) Why Europe is in turmoil.
That's right: Ten-year Treasury notes pay out less than 1.5% annually, their lowest rate since the founding of the Republic. Treasury bills yield essentially zero, their lowest level ever. The velocity of money failed to rise during the past three years of partial economic recovery, and it recently made new lows. Real estate prices have fallen 45% in the past six years. Commodity prices — as measured by the CRB Index — are down 45% in just four years. This group includes oil and silver, two of the most hyped investments of the past decade. Remember in March when articles quoted analysts calling for $5, $6 and $8-per-gallon gasoline? In just three months since then, gas prices have fallen 13%, knocking the CPI into negative territory.
Ironically, investors in the past decade have been doing exactly the opposite of preparing for deflation. Convinced of perpetually rising prices, they have bought every major investment. They chased real estate up to a peak in 2006. They bought blue chip stocks into the high of 2007. They pushed commodities up to a peak in 2008. They chased gold and silver up to highs in 2011. And through spring 2012, they continued to buy stocks and commodities on any rumor that promised inflation: European bank bailouts, Operation Twist, the Greek election, Group-of-8 summits, Fed meetings, Bernanke press conferences, improved economic numbers, predictions of QE3, you name it. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index hasn't made a new low for four years. During deflationary times, cash is king, and investors have chosen to own anything but cash.
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
【文匯報】爆民陣勁篤數 鍾庭耀遭大班謾罵
■鍾庭耀踢爆民陣「報大數」，備受政治壓力。
香港文匯報記者梁祖彝 攝由多個反對派政團組成的民陣公布的七一遊行人數，被多名學者及所做的調查踢爆「報大數」幾倍，當日有在灣仔軍器廠街天橋點算人數的港大民意研究計劃中心，推算遊行人數介乎9.8萬人至11.2萬人之間，與民陣宣布的40萬人相差近4倍，但中心總監鍾庭耀卻因而受到政治壓力。他昨日出席一電台節目時表示大感無奈，嘆說：「望歷史可還我一個公道。」
他更說，參與民主發展或推動民主的一些另類人士與科學民主間不應作出難堪抉擇，兩者應相輔相成。又指近年遊行只著重遊行人數，變得忽視了遊行人士聲音。
批遊行人數水分太多
提到近日反對派就七一遊行玩「數字遊戲」，鍾庭耀說：「遊行人數去到今天引起軒然大波，感覺是太多『水分』的人數數字。」認為倘若歷久常新地每年加下去，無論哪個遊行主辦機構都會有個想法：「好多時覺得3萬、2萬的遊行人數微不足道，起碼要有10萬先夠數；10萬以上，就梗係20萬好。」他批評這種「主觀意願」貶低了只有幾萬人參與的遊行，指他們的聲音亦十分重要。
點算過程有錄像為憑
節目中，表示有參與遊行的鄭經翰多次以其經典的謾罵，批評鍾庭耀及其研究中心的人數點算方式有問題，大罵只點算經過軍器廠街一點，就當作成參與七一遊行人數的結論是「放屁」。鍾庭耀就強調，只點算經過軍器廠街而不計算插隊者有6.8萬人，而當日點算是有錄像為憑，更說自己不會以「政治語言」視之，反譏對方以「政治語言」對待科學調查。多年來有參加七一遊行的鍾庭耀又認為，市民的「觀感」是銅鑼灣很迫，這是因為多條街道匯流，而當日作點算人數的軍器廠街與軒尼詩道交界，觀察所得行車線數較多人，亦會走得較快。他又提到，近日收到電話，不少是「責備及謾罵」，惟希望歷史可還他公道。
稱民研資金公開透明
歷時近一小時的節目，鍾庭耀多次遭鄭經翰批評指是以民陣「報大數」獲更多資金，鍾庭耀即反駁指計劃的營運資金公開透明。
■香港文匯報記者 鄭治祖
網址:《香港大學民意網站》七一遊行人數點算計劃
為了方便巿民自己親力親為重新點算遊行人數，民研計劃會把今日在點算站的全程錄像，在十日後上載到《普及民意平台》（網址為http://popcon.hk）。
CERN Discovers Higgs-like Boson
Hamish Johnston (editor of physicsworld.com)
Found at last: the Higgs has turned up at the LHC
Physicists working at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) have announced the discovery of the Higgs boson – or at least a particle that resembles the Higgs. In two special seminars this morning at the CERN particle-physics lab in Geneva, spokespeople for the LHC's two main experiments – ATLAS and CMS – both reported measurements of the Higgs' mass at confidence levels of 5σ. Any finding that passes this statistical threshold is generally, but not always, considered a "discovery" among the particle-physics community.
However, today's announcement of a discovery of a particle that looks like the Higgs is by no means the end of the story, as physicists have yet to understand its complete nature.
Physicists have had the Higgs boson in their sights for nearly 50 years because its discovery would complete the Standard Model of particle physics. The particle and its associated field explain how electroweak symmetry broke just after the Big Bang, which gave certain elementary particles the property of mass. The Standard Model does not, however, predict the mass of the Higgs, and successive experimental programmes at CERN's Large Electron–Positron Collider (LEP), Fermilab's Tevatron and now the LHC have tried to measure the particle's mass.
Presenting the latest results from the CMS experiment, spokesperson Joe Incandela announced that his experiment has discovered the Higgs boson at a mass of 125 GeV/c2 and a statistical significance of 5σ.
Incandela described the result as "A phenomenal effort considering that we stopped taking data two weeks ago."
Incandela was followed by ATLAS spokesperson Fabiola Gianotti, who says that ATLAS has measured the mass of the Higgs as 126 GeV/c2, which agrees with preliminary results released by CERN in December 2011. The statistical significance of the measurement is 5σ.
"The search is more advanced today than we imagined possible," says Gianotti. However, she cautioned that "a little more time is needed to finalize these results, and more data and more study will be needed to determine the new particle's properties".
Measurements with 5σ from both detectors – combined with previous searches by Tevatron and LEP – leave no doubt that a "Higgs-like" particle has been discovered by the LHC.
"We have reached a milestone in our understanding of nature," says CERN director general Rolf-Dieter Heuer, who described the new particle as being "consistent with the Higgs boson".
Speaking in the CERN auditorium immediately after the results had been presented, Edinburgh University particle theorist Peter Higgs congratulated researchers on their finding. "For me, it's a really incredible thing that it's happened in my lifetime," he said.
Found at last: the Higgs has turned up at the LHC
Physicists working at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) have announced the discovery of the Higgs boson – or at least a particle that resembles the Higgs. In two special seminars this morning at the CERN particle-physics lab in Geneva, spokespeople for the LHC's two main experiments – ATLAS and CMS – both reported measurements of the Higgs' mass at confidence levels of 5σ. Any finding that passes this statistical threshold is generally, but not always, considered a "discovery" among the particle-physics community.
However, today's announcement of a discovery of a particle that looks like the Higgs is by no means the end of the story, as physicists have yet to understand its complete nature.
Physicists have had the Higgs boson in their sights for nearly 50 years because its discovery would complete the Standard Model of particle physics. The particle and its associated field explain how electroweak symmetry broke just after the Big Bang, which gave certain elementary particles the property of mass. The Standard Model does not, however, predict the mass of the Higgs, and successive experimental programmes at CERN's Large Electron–Positron Collider (LEP), Fermilab's Tevatron and now the LHC have tried to measure the particle's mass.
Presenting the latest results from the CMS experiment, spokesperson Joe Incandela announced that his experiment has discovered the Higgs boson at a mass of 125 GeV/c2 and a statistical significance of 5σ.
Incandela described the result as "A phenomenal effort considering that we stopped taking data two weeks ago."
Incandela was followed by ATLAS spokesperson Fabiola Gianotti, who says that ATLAS has measured the mass of the Higgs as 126 GeV/c2, which agrees with preliminary results released by CERN in December 2011. The statistical significance of the measurement is 5σ.
"The search is more advanced today than we imagined possible," says Gianotti. However, she cautioned that "a little more time is needed to finalize these results, and more data and more study will be needed to determine the new particle's properties".
Measurements with 5σ from both detectors – combined with previous searches by Tevatron and LEP – leave no doubt that a "Higgs-like" particle has been discovered by the LHC.
"We have reached a milestone in our understanding of nature," says CERN director general Rolf-Dieter Heuer, who described the new particle as being "consistent with the Higgs boson".
Speaking in the CERN auditorium immediately after the results had been presented, Edinburgh University particle theorist Peter Higgs congratulated researchers on their finding. "For me, it's a really incredible thing that it's happened in my lifetime," he said.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
【蘋果動新聞】21點賭神 數牌贏1億
約翰遜在大西洋城三間賭場玩 21點，半年內贏了 1,510萬美元，搞到賭場怕了他，禁止他進入賭場。
美國最近出現一位 21點賭神，他短短半年就在大西洋城三間頂級賭場贏了 1,510萬美元（ 1.17億港元），更試過 12小時內贏走 580萬美元（ 4,500萬港元），累賭場蝕大錢，是有紀錄以來最多的。賭神顯神通，賭場怕怕，實行封殺他。
12小時贏 4500萬
這位 21點賭神叫約翰遜（ Don Johnson），現年 49歲，來自費城，是一間賽馬博彩公司的行政總裁。單看外形，他絕不像周潤發在電影扮演的賭神那般有型有款。他身材肥胖，穿衞衣牛仔褲，頭戴賭場送的鴨舌帽，很普通。
但人不可以貌相。去年 12月，他先在大西洋城的凱撒賭場玩 21點，贏走 423萬美元（ 3,300萬港元）；同月在波爾加塔酒店賭場又贏 99.8萬美元（ 780萬港元），今年 3月和 4月再贏 180萬美元（ 1,400萬港元），之後更在 48小時內贏了 225萬美元（ 1,750萬港元）；最神勇是上月在好世界賭場，在 12小時內贏走 580萬美元，令賭場上月蝕掉 180萬美元，令賭場行政總裁被炒。
賭術上神枱，約翰遜不肯透露贏錢秘訣，但堅稱沒有出千，也沒有用任何高科技，只靠超強心算和運氣。「我靠運氣多過靠技術，當中沒有魔法，其實始終會有人打垮他們，我很高興那個人是我。」他又說自己並非百戰百勝：「我沒穿抗刃防火纖維，也不是刀槍不入，我有時都會輸錢。」
高人說得謙，博彩專家卻指，玩 21點要像約翰遜那般贏大錢，必定要懂得一套數牌秘技，計算出牌盒中還剩下多少張 A、 10或花牌，再決定下多少注碼，「更重要是，他要有足夠賭本」──約翰遜確曾試過一次下注 10萬美元（ 78萬港元），足證本錢豐厚。
遭多間賭場封殺
約翰遜橫掃賭場後，內華達州和大西洋城多間賭場已列他為不受歡迎人物，禁他再入賭場。他不以為然說：「我知道他們不會再讓我入賭場，但改變不了我的生活，不玩 21點，我會去賭馬。」
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