Friday, December 30, 2011

涉公園性交男女遭「起底」

【明報專訊】年輕男女被指聖誕期間在公園疑似性交的片段熱爆網絡,前日有人把兩段名為《前傳》的短片上載到YouTube網站,只見該對男女在卡拉OK的走廊濕吻,更有網民稱已把男女「起底」,並將疑屬兩人的facebook截圖在討論區廣為流傳。

香港青年協會督導主任(網絡)鄧良順直言,事件在網上曝光後已不能回頭,對片中男女是最大懲罰,呼籲網民不要落井下石。他指出,被網民「起底」或成為談論對象,被「欺凌」者承受重大壓力,家長知道後要支持子女,亦望市民從中汲取教訓。如有需要,可致電「關心一線」2777 8899,尋求專業社工協助。

律師:頂證須片主出庭

律師黃國桐表示,若片中女子未成年,男方會被控「與未成年女童發生性行為」等罪名,另雙方都可能涉及「在公眾地方的猥褻行為」罪名。但有關罪行須片主出庭頂證,否則單靠網絡影片難以入罪。然而片主作證後,由於片段內容涉及不雅或淫褻,發布者亦會被控。

另外,警方昨午約5時半在大埔頌雅路拘捕一名14歲男童,懷疑他與未成年女童發生性行為,案件現交由大埔警區刑事調查隊第二隊跟進。

Market Fell On Last Trading Day; Moderate Gain For The Year

Broad market drops on the last trading day of this year. Trading volume is thin as major market participants are not present during the holiday period. Despite decreased trading activities, market still oscillates on buying and selling from traders and speculators. However, it seems that market moves within the range boundary where traders learn to buy at the low and sell at the high.

Global equity stock market suffers loss for the year with the exception of US and a few Asian countries. European stock markets tumble on the sovereign debt crisis which spreads globally to affect the stock markets. There is sell-off in the emerging market stocks as investors are exiting from risky assets. Gold surges to record high but retreats recently. US equity stock market is better than the rest of the world.

Investors remain cautious on equity stock market. On the other hand, overall personal wealth is growing on the global scale. But the distribution is largely biased resulting in concentration of wealth and widening of the gap between rich and poor. The consequence is social instability and the average people cannot benefit from the growth in economy although the number of billionaire sets record high.

Household wealth is growing steadily. But the capital does not go into the financial system to facilitate the operation of small businesses as banks are reluctant to lend to business. Large corporation bonds can attract investors for its relative safety.

Hot capital in the financial market is causing the turbulence in asset prices including equity stocks, commodities, real estate, etc. Investors are finding investment opportunities other than holding cash with mere return. As long as there is tremendous cash on the sideline, equity stock market remains highly speculative until confidence returns with strong evidence of growing economy.



Trade with your brain, not your emotions
Making the right trade isn't always fun. Sometimes it feels viscerally wrong.

Both Sun Tzu and Mohammad said that "war is deception." Well, financial markets are at war with your capital and your head. They bob and weave like a prizefighter, trying to lure and confuse us before delivering a knockout punch. Stocks play head games, sapping our conviction to buy or sell at precisely the moment when it makes sense to do so.

A recent case in point: precious metals. Silver collapsed back in May, and I told some trading friends that I thought it was going back to $30 before it returned to the April highs of $47-$48. So what did I do? I sat on the sidelines for most of the spring and summer, then started to doubt my own chart work and eventually tried to get long in early September.

That was obviously a mistake, because silver would soon crash once again, and this time it found support at what price? That same $30 I had coolly and rationally identified several months earlier. (Which, I should add, I liked because it was a peak from last December and January.)

The lesson: We should all try to determine the areas where we're good and stick with them.


Investor Uncertainty At 6-Year High: Survey
As investors brace for more volatility, their uncertainty about the direction of the stock market is at the highest level in six years.

The latest poll by American Association of Individual Investors shows that 38 percent of respondents expect stock prices to remain flat in the next six months. That's the highest level since April 2005.

European sovereign debt problems, domestic politics and lackluster economic growth are all weighing on the sentiment, according to the survey.

"The sentiment numbers reflect the sense that a short-term solution to the problems here and in Europe do not exist," says Charles Rotblut, vice president at AAII. "There is also a sense of frustration about the inability to get good returns right now".

On a bright side, there is no significant level of fear among investors, and many are looking for modest gains in 2012, says Rotblut.

While volatility is widely expected to continue, respondents predicting an up year for S&P 500 outnumbered those expecting a down year by a margin of three to one.

Expectations were modest, however, with more of than half of those predicting gains saying the S&P 500 will rise by 10 percent or less.

According to the survey, a notable number of AAII members are anticipating another pullback in stock prices in 2012.


Hold Your Nose & Buy Bank Stocks: Bove
After crashing 50% in 2008, and then enduring another brutal 30% decline in 2011, investors could be excused for wanting to seek their fortunes somewhere other than in the KBW Bank Index. But Dick Bove, financial sector analyst at Rochdale Sector, isn't running away from his picks, he's doubling down on them, and predicting (again) that the market's coldest industry is on the cusp of greatness.

Bove is expecting to see continued improvement in trends, including the domestic economy and banking industry earnings that are at a 4 1/2 year high, have risen for 9 consecutive quarters, and "aren't as dirty (or cluttered with charges) as you think."

But for all their profitability and potential market share gains, investors are still not seeing it - or at least buying into it. Bove himself offered up an explanation for his erroneous "buy" calls in the sector this year: "I failed to understand that the fears in the market concerning banking were so great that the fundamental improvements in the economy, the industry, and companies like Bank of America and Citigroup would simply be ignored."

The final piece of his domestic bank thesis is based on evidence of loan and deposit growth, saying "inflow of deposits have been enormous because money is coming out of everything." And with deposit rates next to nothing, few would argue that for all their other issues, banks are definitely sitting on lots of cash.


In a first, gas and other fuels are top US export
For the first time, the top export of the United States, the world's biggest gas guzzler, is — wait for it — fuel.

Just how big of a shift is this? A decade ago, fuel wasn't even among the top 25 exports. And for the last five years, America's top export was aircraft.

The value of U.S. fuel exports has grown steadily over the past decade, coinciding with rising oil prices and increased demand around the globe.

Developing countries in Latin America and Asia have been burning more gasoline and diesel as their people buy more cars and build more roads and factories. Europe also has been buying more U.S. fuel to make up for its lack of refineries.

And there's a simple reason why America's refiners have been eager to export to these markets: gasoline demand in the U.S. has been falling every year since 2007. It dropped by another 2.5 percent in 2011. With the economy struggling, motorists cut back. Also, cars and trucks have become more fuel-efficient and the government mandates the use of more corn-based ethanol fuel.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

互聯網絡上流傳 香港聖誕節情侶在公園親熱








最神秘「貓」撒哈拉鬼魅

英國《每日郵報》
非洲「撒哈拉獵豹」( Saharan cheetah )神出鬼沒,是全球最神秘貓科動物之一,外界對牠了解甚少。保育學家鍥而不捨十年後,終在尼日爾泰爾米特沙漠,揭開牠的廬山真面目。

撒哈拉保育基金發言人紐比表示,工作人員去年7至8月期間,利用夜視鏡頭拍下晝伏夜出的撒哈拉獵豹,發現牠毛色光亮,有條長尾巴,背部長有斑點。工作人員十年來只見過這種獵豹三次,惟獨今次拍攝得到照片,估計區內只有不足10隻存活。

Saturday, December 24, 2011

工展會部分貨品貴過超市


【星島日報】開幕兩周的工展會,在昨日聖誕前夕,錄得超過十五萬人次進場,開幕至今累計逾一百四十萬人次入場,較去年同期增一成六。不過有入場市民認為,會場內醬油等貨品較一般超市略貴,又有「捆綁式」銷售,影響消費意欲。

受惠今年工展會內地旅客增多,不少參展商的生意額皆「報捷」。東方紅助理批發經理王偉傑表示,開幕迄今生意額較往年同期增兩至三成,如早前有內地客一擲接近五萬元購入蟲草燕窩,出手闊綽。他預計,昨平安夜銷情可較平日升一成;德國寶(香港)負責人張先生亦指,今年工展會增設從羅湖口岸巴士接載內地客進場消費,是人流大增的主因。

有別過去兩年,東方紅今年沒在昨開幕的冬日美食嘉年華擺檔。王偉傑解釋,該展覽僅四天檔期,較難找到有銷售經驗的臨時工,故今年主攻工展會生意。

工展會昨引來十五萬人次入場,較去年同日多出約四萬三千人次,開幕迄今累積入場人數已逾一百四十萬人,比去年同期多出二十萬人次。

入場人數再創新高,但有市民反映,場內有貨品較一般超市昂貴,令消費意欲大減。彭氏一家四口與友人劉女士,昨早進場已花千多元買下一箱龜苓膏、臘腸和即食麵等食品。但每年至少都去兩次工展會的劉女士發現,今年場內有攤檔售賣醬油套裝送手推車,標價一百二十元,與往年相比明顯加價,認為市面醬油套裝一般只售九十元而沒有光顧。她又說,去年連同家居電器,在工展會花費多達八千元,相比今年的確「節省」不少。有入場長者亦指,今年工展會如食油等貨品價格略貴,又不滿有攤位「捆綁式」銷售,食油連泰國米一併購買才有優惠。

同珍醬油罐頭負責人表示,今年各項貨品價錢略升,但人流不跌反升,套裝優惠大賣,開展兩周生意額有望比往年同期大增四至五成;淘大員工黃先生亦指,今年醬油等貨品市價有所調整,故在工展會以套裝優惠回饋顧客,銷情應該至少比往年好一成。 

正值聖誕,工展會昨日起至本月底推出個人護理用品、服飾精品及家居用品的特價優惠,同時舉辦兒童繪畫比賽等活動讓入場家長帶同子女參與。

女子入錯房 上錯床做錯愛

將軍澳野狗 咬死野豬


記者昨日到發現野豬屍的將軍澳馬油塘村採訪,見不少野狗出沒。(蔡方山攝)

一頭「野豬少女」倒臥山坡雜物堆,身上滿佈傷痕似被野狗噬咬或抓傷,證實已死。(蔡方山攝)

資料圖片

【明報專訊】將軍澳昨日上演野豬大戰流浪狗的地盤爭霸戰。一頭未成年野豬女疑誤闖野狗盤據範圍,寡不敵眾被狗群噬咬至遍體鱗傷,浴血逃至馬油塘村不支倒地身亡,由村民發現報警。

野豬未成年 僅1米長

大埔野豬狩獵隊隊長楊佳權表示,山林間野狗與野豬發生打鬥並非罕見,因狗本身有獵性,當看見野豬便會攻擊。但楊佳權憑戰果推斷,相信戰敗的野豬屬雌性,若是長出獠牙的成年公豬,恐怕流浪狗群會有死傷,戰果可能完全改寫。

戰敗的「野豬少女」尚未成年,僅約1米長,約重70公斤,伏屍在馬油塘村305號村屋對開山坡的雜物堆,身上傷痕纍纍且血跡斑斑,死狀恐怖。有村民表示,村內經常有人餵飼野狗,久而久之,山頭聚集了約20頭流浪狗,不排除野豬遭野狗襲擊斃命。

村民估計,野豬女是在清晨時分於附近山頭四處覓食,疑不慎誤闖野狗群佔據的山林而遭包圍襲擊,被咬傷多處後浴血突圍逃走,跑至上址匿藏喘息,疑因傷勢過重送命。

至早上近7時,一名姓黃村民途經上址,發現野豬已全無反應,報警求助。警員趕至時,證實野豬已死亡,遂聯絡食環署人員到場處理豬屍。

本報記者昨日到場採訪時,亦見到有流浪狗在山頭出沒,並且露出兇悍神色,似在提防入侵其地盤者。

Friday, December 23, 2011

英國堅持福克蘭島主權不容談判


【BBC中文網】英國首相卡梅倫表示,英國擁有不會違背島民的意願交出福克蘭群島的主權。

卡梅倫在聖誕節致詞中對福克蘭島居民說,南美洲港口最近禁止懸掛福克蘭島旗幟的船隻進港是不公正的,而且沒有建設性。

本周早些時候i,南美洲貿易集團南美洲共同市場就上述措施達成協議。南美洲共同市場 包括阿根廷,巴西,巴拉圭和烏拉圭。

福克蘭島被西班牙語國家稱為馬爾維納斯群島,是位於南大西洋上的群島。阿根廷聲稱對該島擁有主權,但是群島被英國佔領。

英國自19世紀30年代開始就佔領福克蘭群島,英國表示福克蘭群的未來不容談判。1982年英國同阿根廷為爭奪福克蘭群島發生了短暫但血腥的戰爭。

最近福克蘭島問題再次成為兩國關係中的緊張問題。去年阿根廷指責英國允許在福克蘭島附近海域開採石油違反了國際裁決。福克蘭島位於南大西洋礦藏豐富的海域。

11月阿根廷還指責英國的「挑釁行為」,因為英國宣佈威廉王子明年將在駐扎在福克蘭群島的皇家空軍任職。

Stock Dumping Ceases; Trickle Of Buying Buoys Market

Market dropped on the first day of week but then continuously climbed up in the following days. Market began the week with selling pressure from hedge funds and day traders from last week. But surprising economic data on Tuesday changed market direction. Market has been jumping up and down in the past months. But it appears that the trough in October would be recent market bottom. Sellers cannot drag market down below that level where a lot of investors and traders have trimmed the portfolio on the fear of market collapse. Those shares were acquired by long term investors who have the ability to hold the investment for long term appreciation. Some smart traders also acquired shares at the bottom. But part of the profit is realized as market approaches the upper boundary of trading range. Day traders and speculators dominate the trading activities as many other market participants stop trading for the year. Hedge funds are not successful to create panic selling as done previously by market manipulators.

Many market participants are sitting on cash to wait for opportunity to replenish the portfolio but only to see that market gets strong support despite widespread market pessimism which indicates that buyers are expecting to buy at a much lower market value. On the other hand, holders of equity stock are already rich in cash and are reluctant to exchange stock for cash despite possibility of further depreciation.

Dividend stocks, especially blue chips, are the most popular among investors because corporate earnings are growing steadily. As a result, corporate bonds are also in high demand from investors who are seeking safety as well as reasonable return. As mentioned in previous post, there is observation that retail investors are slowly coming back to the equity stock market. Remember that last October individual investors started buying stocks and drove the market until this year's peak in May when market manipulators began to sell down the market. The trading volume started to decrease as capital flew out of equity stock market. Currently trading volume is almost lowest of the year amid holiday season.

Despite increasing interest from retail investors in equity stock market, they are very cautious in buying and only looking for short term profit. Investors are mostly thin on stock holding and anxious on the mere return of cash or equivalent. Although the macro economy is not likely under the threat of a "Double Dip", stock market can still go into a severe dip due to market manipulation. This is the worry of many market participants as well as sideline cash.

As the overall economy recovers from the damage of financial crisis, asset market including equity stocks and real estate will eventually appreciate in value to reflect the growth in overall wealth from economic activities.

The uncertainty of short term market direction is whether to go into collapse first so that market participants can buy at fire sale discount as in the midst of financial crisis, or to climb a wall of worry when investors are sitting on the sideline with cash until the macro economy confirms a full recovery and subsequent growth.



Making a List, and Taking It to the Pawnshop
Christmas this year has come to the neighborhood pawnshop — and business is booming like never before.

Sue Gallagher, 54, is one shopper who now works through her Christmas list at a pawnshop before heading to Wal-Mart or Target.

The gloomy economy is the most immediate explanation, but industry experts also point to the success of television shows like “Pawn Stars,” which have attracted a more mainstream audience to the stores.


Lacker sees no need for Fed to ease
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to need to ease monetary policy further given the country's steady if moderate pace of economic growth, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Monday.

Lacker, an inflation hawk who will rotate into a voting seat in the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee next year, said he expects the economy to expand between 2 percent and 2.5 percent next year.

Some Fed officials believe another round of monetary stimulus could help bring down the nation's 8.6 percent jobless rate further. But Lacker stuck to the view that the bulk of problems holding back the job market are beyond the reach of monetary policy.


Analysis: Money managers forge ahead despite volatility
It is a good time to be a U.S. stock investor for the long term - if you can ignore the noise erupting every few hours.

That is the advice from some money managers, who are taking the opposite tack of many who want to avoid the turbulence. Instead, they are confronting the volatility head on, adding to stock allocations rather than standing pat.

Much of their increased optimism stems from a belief the U.S. economy is likely to avoid another recession, even as a European downturn seems more likely.

But there remain many reasons to be wary. Even optimistic money managers acknowledge that Europe's debt troubles are far from over and the fallout could still extend to the United States, especially the U.S. financial system.

Cautious retail investors overall still prefer bonds and cash to stocks. Assets under management at all equity funds dropped by $186 billion for the year through December 12, according to Thomson Reuters' Lipper. For the same period, assets under management at all taxable bond funds rose by $69.8 billion.

The well-worn arguments about attractive valuation have not won the day in 2011. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 appears headed for another losing year, despite valuations that have not been this low in a decade.

The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the company's profit, is low by historic standards. The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of 11.3 is at its lowest in more than a decade, S&P data shows.

One approach to investing in stocks today is to aim for global diversification, according to Todd Petzel, chief investment officer at Offit Capital Advisors.


Is the Falling VIX a Bullish Indicator? Yes Says Jon Najarian
Despite tumbling as much as 5% earlier today, the CBOE Volatility Index could be the most bullish indicator on the Street. Sometimes referred to as "the fear indicator," the VIX has been in a downward trend through most of December, dropping nearly 10% in the last two last two sessions, and currently inching below it's 200-day moving average of roughly 25.75.

Big market swings such as we've seen in December are "supposed" to lead to a higher VIX. The curious combination of big moves and shrinking VIX levels has some questioning whether or not it has any predictive value at all.

"In the VIX there's a lot of money that's saying the markets will not be moving as much as they were in September, October, and November," he explains. "It doesn't necessarily mean we have to rally, it just means the moves will be less exaggerated."


For Wall St.'s Big Players, the Holiday Party Is Still Over
Three years after the financial crisis, the Grinch still hovers over Wall Street.

But, mindful of mass layoffs, flagging profits and sustained anger on Main Street, the nation's largest banks have canceled firm-sponsored celebrations or moved them in-house to avoid the costs and the criticism.

For the fourth year in a row, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have shelved their official holiday parties. The investment banking divisions of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America have also decided against them. But groups of employees at all five firms were permitted to hold - and pay for - their own festivities.

With large American firms cutting back on holiday parties, private equity firms, hedge funds and others that operate farther from the public eye are taking their place.

At banks without official parties, some employees are making do with less.

Other firms have emphasized charitable giving programs intended to draw attention to their good works.

Those kinds of events can provide the morale boost of a holiday party without the reputational risks, experts say.

"At this point, the crazy, expensive caviar nights don't make sense, but maybe something more subdued would be more appropriate," said Alison Brod, who runs a New York-based public relations firm. "It's pretty sad to do nothing."


History Hints at a 2012 Rally in Financials: Bespoke’s Hickey
If past is prologue, and it generally is in markets as in life, the Financial sector could be poised for a decent rally in the next 12 months. At least that's the assertion of Paul Hickey, the co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.

Hickey's theory doesn't rely on a sweeping solution to the European debt crisis or other fundamental imponderables. He's focusing on the similarities between the trading in bank stocks today and the price moves in Technology stocks after the tech bubble implosion a decade ago.

For good measure, Hickey reminds us that banks are working off overcapacity (witness the number of lay-offs), a lack of demand for their services, and an almost universal skepticism regarding the industry's ability to recover. All concerns surrounding financial stocks today

The conclusion of the story in terms of parallels between the Tech sector of yesteryear and the Financial sector of today is this: The market did in fact end up rallying without the techs for two-years prior to a nice +10% rally mid-decade. In terms of time frame and sentiment, Hickey says the financial sector is almost exactly where the techs were prior to that rally.

It may not be an unqualified "bottom" call, but Hickey is looking for that same 10% out of the financials next year. It may not seem like much but it's certainly better than the grinding losses of 2011.


Banks Not Lending? Corporate Borrowing Soars in 2011
Consumers may be cutting debt and banks may be tightening up their balance sheets, but borrowing by U.S. corporations is in full swing.

Corporations use syndicated loans for longer-term financing. The loans usually are provided by a group of deep-pocketed lenders who can distribute liability among them and thus decrease their risk. Big Wall Street investment banks are usually the source of such loans.

So far in 2011, syndicated loan volume has increased a whopping 56 percent compared to 2010, according to Dealogic. The total of $1.76 trillion is the highest single-year sum since the pre-financial crisis days of 2007.

Globally, syndicated loan volume grew 27 percent to $3.74 trillion - again, the highest since 2007, Dealogic said.

The spike in corporate borrowing, though, contrasts with the debt-averse private sector.

Consumer credit grew at a 3.7 percent pace in October but is up just about 2 percent for the year, with total consumer debt outstanding at $2.46 trillion, according to the latest seasonally adjusted Federal Reserve data.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Retail Investors Returning To Equity Stock Market

Equity stock market gives back some gain for the prior weeks. Although market manipulators have accomplished work for the year, hedge funds continue to lead the selling at the end of the year. With news of bank downgrade, hedge fund selling is weak but followed by day traders. Market becomes less sensitive to the downgrade news and does not trigger panic sell-offs. But market participants use the news to drag down broad market index. Hedge fund overall performance is not satisfactory for the year and is attempting to use the final trading days to narrow the loss. It appears that retail investors are exhibiting more interest in equity stock market amid flooding of cash in the portfolio.

Although market participants are selectively buying stocks on the dip, the holding time is short on fear of market sell-off as market manipulators are using the downgrade news and sovereign debt crisis to move market.

Market will continue to swing on money flow. But it should be range bounded as it will attract buyers at recent bottom level and profit taking will constrain the rise of market. Currently, market support is being tested as market manipulators and hedge funds are attempting to move the market down. However, panic selling from market participants appears to fade away as market approaches recent bottom. And a lot of individual investors are still waiting for the opportunity to replenish the stocks in the portfolio. On the other hand, there is selling pressure from day traders taking profit on rebound.

There is a lot of capital flowing around the globe as well as speculation on financial assets. Household investors are seeing growth in personal wealth while institutional funds are under pressure from customers for return on investment.

Speculators can exploit market turbulence to make profit. Risk mitigation is an important factor to ride on market trend. Despite year end approaching, trading activities drop only slightly on coming holiday.

Last October, buying from individual investors drove market higher until early this year when market manipulators began to sell on market peak. Currently, after the sell-offs from year peak, individual investors are cautiously returning to the equity stock market with speculative buying and selling. There are still a lot of uncertainties that is reflected on the weak confidence of market participants.



The $200 Trillion World: Who Owns All the Wealth?
The wealth of the world -- from all the global stock markets, insurance funds, and families -- comes out to about $200 trillion, according to the McKinsey Global Institute's new report on investors in developing nations.

Households, mostly. U.S. and Western European households own about one-quarter of the world's financial assets, according the rather remarkable chart produced by the authors, which breaks down wealth by type and geography.

Until this decade, the preferences of investors in developed nations have shaped the evolution of global capital markets. Today these investors control 79 percent of the world's nearly $200 trillion in financial assets.

Broadly speaking, investors in developed economies hold highly diversified portfolios, with significant portions in equities. The United States stands out for consistently high equity allocations: currently US households have 42 percent of their non-retirement financial assets in publicly listed shares. Households in Hong Kong have similar shares of their wealth in equities. On average, Western European households placed 29 percent of their financial assets in equities in 2010, with 29 percent in the United Kingdom (down from 45 percent in 2000), 25 percent in France, and 19 percent in Germany.

Among developed nations, Japan stands out for its very low investment in equities. Despite a long tradition of equity investing by individual investors for most of the 20th century, Japanese households now hold less than 10 percent of their assets in equities, down from 30 percent before the 1989-90 crash. Because of low or negative returns over the past two decades, Japanese allocations have never exceeded 18 percent in this period.


A New Way to Access the Pre-IPO Market
This week could mark the busiest for the IPO market since November 2007. As many as 11 companies are expected to go public, including online gaming king Zynga.

This pre-IPO fever has been fueled, in part, by privately held social media phenomenons like Facebook and Twitter. Note Facebook's recently implied $100 billion valuation and it's easy to see why investors are salivating to get a hold of shares. But for the average investor, accumulating shares is virtually impossible until after the IPO.

If all of this seems a little too hot and trendy for your hard earned investment dollars, yet you acknowledge that value exists in being early to the party of discovery for young companies, then the just-listed Keating Pre-IPO Fund (KIPO) may be worth a peak.

While names like Facebook, Zynga, Twitter, and FourSquare are better known in the universe of pre-IPO companies, Keating says they don't offer the value, or upside potential, that is needed to join the 13 other pre-listed companies that have been added to the fund over the past two years. In addition to doing at least $10 million a year in sales as well as plans to go public within 18 months, perhaps the most exclusive barrier to his portfolio is the last, a valuation that will offer "a 2x return", a.k.a. a double.

Keating points out two other aspects of his fund that set it apart from many others. First, they don't use leverage, and second, unlike ETFs or traditional mutual funds, this one is a closed-end fund. Keating says this allows investors to "buy and sell our stock without us having to disturb the underlying portfolio." What that means is they don't have to keep cash on hand and never have to sell something they don't want to in order to raise money to pay investors who cash-out or redeem their shares. Not a small thing in this volatile market.


Banks park more money with ECB
Banks parked euro346.4 billion ($459.0 billion) overnight with the European Central Bank on Monday, reflecting increasing tensions in a banking system shaken by the eurozone debt crisis.

The figure announced Tuesday indicates banks would rather park cash at the ECB rather than lend it to other banks because they do not trust the other banks to pay them back.

The banking system is under stress from fears that eurozone governments will not be able to pay their debts and will default on bonds held by banks. Banks are under pressure from the European Union to find more money to build up their financial cushions.


Bulls Pout as Fed Stands Pat: Stage Set for “More Action” in 2012, Girard Says
U.S. futures are turning lower and the euro fell below its key $1.30 level this morning as markets react to an Italian debt sale and the FOMC's decision to leave monetary policy unchanged at Tuesday's meeting.

"They have set the stage for more action in 2012," Girard says, citing signals from the Fed about publishing its own expectations for the fed funds rate and, more dramatically, setting the stage for another round of QE focused on purchasing mortgage-backed securities.

The Fed is "leaning toward providing more accommodation," she says.

On Tuesday, the market leaned back on the Fed, expressing its disappointment and impatience.


Gold Sheds 'Can't Lose' Status: Now, No One Wants It
In just three months, gold has gone from the trade that works in every kind of market to the trade that doesn't work in any market.

"Gold was a safe haven, a hedge and a speculative trade all at the same time," said Michael Murphy, CEO of Rosecliff Capital, a hedge fund. "Long gold has been a winning trade for years. We expect the selloff in gold to gain momentum into 2012. Traders are finding better hedges, better safe havens, and better speculative commodity plays than long gold."

To be sure, gold has always been a volatile trade that can turn on a dime. Unlike a stock, there are no earnings behind the metal. It's only worth as much as what the next guy will pay for it. That dynamic has been skewed by the ETF and other retail money flowing into the trade this year, say long-term gold bulls.

"Bull markets climb a wall of worry," said Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital "These sharp drops shake out the speculators and keep other would-be buyers on the sidelines. Once the weak longs are cleared out, the trip to $2,000 and beyond will resume unencumbered by excess baggage."


Investors falling out of love with hedge funds
Deep cracks are starting to show in the love affair between hedge funds and their investors, after another year of paltry returns on expensive investments leaves many feeling cheated and close to bailing out.

Hedge funds, which made money both in 2001's tumbling markets and 2003's rally, have been caught out this year by whipsawing markets and high volatility amid the euro zone's prolonged and deepening debt crisis.

Equity funds -- which often rely on fundamental stock analysis -- have been particularly hurt, while macro funds, which bet on stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, have also left some investors disappointed.

A review of hedge fund performance compiled by HSBC seen by Reuters shows huge variance of more than 80 percentage points across the industry during 2011.

While the Paulson Advantage Plus fund was seen the worst performer this year, the Renaissance Institutional equities fund had advanced 32 percent by December 9.

Despite the humble returns, clients faced with volatile equity markets and meager returns on cash and government bonds markets aren't pulling out wholesale from hedge funds because they do not know where to re-allocate to.


Frustrated With Stocks? Here’s How to Profit From Pessimism
If you're frustrated with today's jittery financial markets, you're certainly not alone. Unfortunately there are no quick fixes to resolve the issues fueling the market's ups and downs --namely the European debt crisis, a shaky global economy, and U.S. political gridlock.

Finally, A Rich American Destroys The Fiction That Rich People Create The Jobs
In the war of rhetoric that has developed in Washington as both sides blame each other for our economic mess, one argument has been repeated so often that many people now regard it as fact:

Rich people create the jobs.

Specifically, entrepreneurs and investors, when incented by low taxes, build companies and create millions of jobs.

Now, there have long been many problems with this argument starting with

1.Taxes on rich people (capital gains and income) are, relative to history, low, so raising them would only begin to bring them back in line with prior prosperous periods, and
2.Dozens of rich entrepreneurs have already gone on record confirming that a modest hike in capital gains and income taxes would not have the slightest impact on their desire to create companies and jobs, given that tax rates are historically low.
So this argument, which many people regard as fact, is already flawed.

But now a super-rich and super-successful American has explained the most important reason the theory is absurd, while calling for higher taxes on himself and people like him.

The most important reason the theory that "rich people create the jobs" is absurd, argues Nick Hanauer, the founder of online advertising company aQuantive, which Microsoft bought for $6.4 billion, is that rich people do not create jobs, even if they found and build companies that eventually employ thousands of people.What creates the jobs, Hanauer astutely observes, is a healthy economic ecosystem surrounding the company, which starts with the company's customers.

The company's customers buy the company's products, which, in turn, creates the need for the employees to produce, sell, and service those products. If those customers go broke, the demand for the company's products will collapse. And the jobs will disappear, regardless of what the entrepreneur does.

(Or, to put it even more simply, it's like saying that a seed creates a tree. The seed does not create the tree. The seed starts the tree. But what creates the tree is the combination of the DNA in the seed and the soil, sunshine, water, atmosphere, nutrients, and other factors that nurture it. Plant the seed in an inhospitable environment, and it won't create anything. It will die.)


"Angry Birds" maker eyes Hong Kong IPO
The company which created "Angry Birds," the world's most popular computer game, is considering a stock market flotation in Hong Kong, joining the many foreign firms who have gone public there.

"In Asia there are growing markets -- the people and the money," Peter Vesterbacka, marketing chief of Finnish company Rovio, told Reuters.

Other large global firms to have gone public on the Hong Kong exchange include fashion house Prada, luggage maker Samsonite and cosmetics maker L'Occitane.

Companies benefit from access to high liquidity from Chinese pension funds and retail investors and the bourse offers higher valuations in some sectors.

"Angry Birds," in which players use a slingshot to attack pigs who steal the birds' eggs, has stayed top game since it was launched for Apple's iPhone in 2009.

Rovio was founded in 2003 after three students including Niklas Hed -- CEO Mikael Hed's cousin and now Rovio's COO -- won a game-development competition sponsored by Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia Oyj and Hewlett-Packard CO.

Monday, December 12, 2011

《蘋果》報導捱轟


上水彩園路的簡體字告示牌(右)與繁體字版本(左)只數步距離。

【東方日報】新界部分地區近期新增一些簡體字告示牌,方便內地或新來港人士了解本港法例,減少違規情況。這些簡體字告示牌附近通常會設繁體字告示牌以作對照,但有報章以偏概全,聲稱只見簡體、不見繁體告示牌,危言聳聽指港人可能遭「簡體化」。有區議員質疑有報章「知啲唔知啲及譁眾取寵」,沒有提及告示牌其實是繁簡體兼備。

《蘋果日報》昨日一篇報道聲稱發現上水港鐵站外等新界部分地區,豎立的告示牌只用簡體中文,旁邊並無繁體字告示牌對照,直指港人遭「簡體化」。
不過,本報記者昨日到場巡視,發現彩園邨對面十個藍底白字告示牌,實際上是繁、簡體各佔一半,部分繁、簡體告示牌更只一步之隔,並無出現所謂只見簡體不見繁體的情況。

繁簡字兼備 方便內地客
北區區議員蘇西智表示,由於上水區水貨客違規在行人路上擺放貨物情況嚴重,他們多為內地或新來港人士,因此在政府跨部門小組會議中,建議在彩園路豎立繁、簡體俱備的告示牌,提示水貨客遵守法例。他指該處的告示牌不可能只有簡體字,質疑有報章「知啲唔知啲、譁眾取寵」。

屯門區區議員陳雲生則指出,屯門區的新來港人士較多,他們未必能完全看得懂繁體字,因此豎立簡體字告示牌,方便閱覽,實屬無可厚非。「有好多規定,香港人好早已經認識,但新來港的人士未必知,整啲簡體字牌出嚟,可以提醒佢哋,無乜問題!」

用何種字體 看受文對象
公務員事務局發言人回應指,本港法例並無就政府中文公文訂明必須使用繁體或簡體字,由於本港社會向來慣用繁體字,因此政府發出的公文,一般採繁體字。不過,部門亦會因應實際情況,例如公函受文對象而使用簡化字。

警方表示,新界北區交通部是應地區人士要求,○五年開始在區內多個地點放置簡體字的「行人路踏單車 會被檢控」告示牌,提醒市民注意單車安全,警方會不時檢討有關安排。

Sunday, December 11, 2011

政府簡體化港人 告示牌棄用繁體字


屯門良景邨的馬路旁掛上簡體字警告牌,沒有繁體字作對照。

【蘋果日報】香港回歸 14年,連文字也回歸?大多數本港市民使用繁體中文作書面溝通,雖然法例無規定,但政府網頁一般備有繁體和簡體版。《蘋果》發現警方在新界部份地區豎立的警告牌只用簡體中文,旁邊未見繁體字對照,被網民質疑是警隊邁向「公安化」;有區議員擔心這是政府溫水煮蛙的「去繁體字行動」,直接破壞香港文化價值。

記者先後在屯門良景邨和上水港鐵站見到由警務處發出的簡體字警告牌,其中位於良景邨的警告牌掛在行人路旁,由新界北交通部發出,用簡體字寫上「行人路上踏單車會被檢控」的警告字句,附近並無繁體字警告牌。
本報就有關問題向警方查詢,發言人數日後作書面回覆時完全沒有回應用簡體警告牌的理由,只「答非所問」稱:「由於新界北地理環境特殊,市民以單車為康樂活動或短程代步交通工具普遍。」他又指新界北總區交通部在區內多個地點放置警告牌,警告市民在行人路上踏單車會被檢控,而警告牌是因地區人士要求,於 2005年開始使用。

憂繁體字變集體回憶警告牌的字句雖不複雜,也屬較常見的簡體字,但有附近居民認為,需照顧較年長一輩的港人未必看得懂簡體。賴太和同行的 10歲女兒表示能看懂每個字,但她直言「唔係好慣,要適應」。賴太認為警告牌同時有繁體中文和英文字版本較恰當。讀中四的成同學表示,未必人人看得懂簡體字,他個人也「睇唔慣」,並認為香港回歸後不需要轉用簡體中文。亦有巿民形容事件是警隊步向公安化。
而上水港鐵站外亦有約 10個相同警告牌,集中在彩園邨和彩蒲苑對面,用簡體字寫上「貨物阻街,會被檢控;亂泊單車,會被清走;亂拋垃圾,罰款千五」字句,由警務處、食環署和民政署聯合發出,當中只有一個警告牌旁邊設繁體字版本對照。

元朗區議員鄺俊宇表示,近期發現一些政府部門發出的通告用簡體字,他認為繁體字是本港地道文化,應捍衞:「雖然好小事,擔心政府係溫水煮蛙,慢慢瓦解我哋嘅文化,陰啲陰啲咁用簡體字。第一次用無人出聲,第十次、一百次後就成為習慣,我唔想 10年、 20年後繁體字變成香港人另一集體回憶。」

政府公文多用繁體字
根據法定語文事務部資料,本港法定語文為中文和英文,政府向公眾發表的主要文件均備有中英文本,立法會和政府會議會視乎需要,提供英語、廣東話和普通話的即時傳譯。

至於政府的中文公文可有繁體或簡體的規定?公務員事務局發言人指出,本港法例無相關訂明,但由於本港社會向來慣用繁體字,政府發出的公文一般採用繁體字。

政府部門亦會因應實際情況,例如公函受文對象,使用簡體字。

記者:馮樂琳、黃學潤

Saturday, December 10, 2011

香港戰時碉堡殘破不堪

Queen of England's income frozen until 2015


Even Britain's reigning monarch is affected by economic downturn as new law passes. Queen Elizabeth II faces a freeze on her income through at least 2015 thanks to funding cuts for the royal household resulting from a recently passed law. Her income has already dropped in real terms since 2009 as she has joined the millions of others affected by the economic downturn.

The funding for the royal family has traditionally come from the civil list, a public fund controlled by the British Parliament. However, a law passed six weeks ago will replace the civil list with a single fund, the sovereign grant, in April 2013.

With no extra tax funds to pay for the court of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, Will and Kate’s staff will be subsidized by the Prince of Wales, according to a report in The Sunday Times. The Prince of Wales’ income derives from the Duchy of Cornwall, which also is responsible for financially supporting Prince Harry and any future wife and children. The Duchy of Cornwall reportedly made 17.8 million last year, and although it will be paying for Will and Kate’s staff, structural repairs to Kensington Palace will still be taxpayer-funded.

That most likely means a paycut for the Queen at least through April 2015. In 2010-11, the royal household had an income of 32.1 million, a far cry from the 77.3 million in taxpayer funding that the Queen once enjoyed back in 1991-92.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Growth In Household Wealth Shifts Market Dynamics

Stocks ended with gains for a second straight week. Trading activity is decreasing as market participants are slowly finishing up the trades for the year. Major players of market manipulation have already finished the work for the year with the profit acquired in the series of sell-offs. With the exception of some traders and funds, most of other market participants suffer loss for the year due to decline in the price of stocks in the portfolio.

In the absence of major market manipulators, day traders lose the leader to follow as in the sell-offs. Market participants still exhibit pessimism on concern of European sovereign debt crisis. However, the majority of portfolios are already thin on stock holdings but rich in cash. As a result, investors are reluctant to trim the portfolio further.

Market have been trading in a range for some time after the steep drop triggered by US rating downgrade. Day traders and speculators learn to trade accordingly. Near the range boundary, traders will quickly flip the positions to take profit and initiate new positions. Therefore, market participants are expecting a decline after the strong rebound from recent bottom.

But market dynamics may change as market manipulators may be absent for the rest of the year. The stocks in circulation among traders are purchased at a price much higher than market bottom. The shares at market bottom are largely purchased by bargain hunting investors for long term investment and market manipulators during short covering.

Household wealth have been growing steadily as economy stabilizes and personal saving increases. Although individual investors remain pessimistic on stock market, the growing portfolio value due to cash inflow from saving and stock dividend strength investor confidence.

If market manipulators cease to dump stocks to create market panic, market participants will look for better use of the cash in the portfolio. Dividend paying blue-chip stocks are the most desired because of steady growth in corporate earnings. Less aggressive investors will eye on corporate bonds.



Guess What? The U.S. Car Industry Is Back From The Dead
Car sales in the U.S. rose to the highest level in two years in November. And the U.S. car giants continue to recover as well.

Just as encouraging, says Bill Holstein, author of The Next American Economy and Why GM Matters, the average age of cars in America is now over 10 years, as compared to 6 or so years at the peak of the economic boom. This suggests that Americans will have to continue to buy new cars to replace the ones they have, which bodes well for future car sales.

Chrysler, Ford, and Nissan reported the strongest gains in November. Holstein is surprised by Chrysler in particular, which he thought would suffer from its merger with Fiat. Chrysler's sales, Holstein says, are being powered by the resurgent Jeep division, which saw sales leap an extraordinary 50% year over year. This explains why you see so many shiny new Jeeps all over the place.


Don’t get mad at Wall Street, get even
Mutual-fund managers will sell a losing stock near the end of the year in order to avoid having their disastrous bets memorialized in year-end reports.

Note carefully that there is no legitimate investment reason for this activity. After all, it is pursued for appearance’s sake only, since selling a stock after it has already lost does nothing to recover the loss. In fact, there is some research suggesting that window dressing can actually hurt a fund’s performance.

If the future is like the past, the short-term profit you turn with stocks such as these will come at the expense of the mutual funds who sold them in a vain attempt to fool us. It will serve them right.


Risk on/risk off and Moneyball economics
Risk on, risk off. No four words could better describe the frustrating year that was 2011.

For those of us who consider ourselves value investors, the risk on/risk off trade is particularly frustrating because the market has made little distinction in 2011 between the wheat and the chaff. When the market is in "risk on" mode, everything tends to rise in lockstep with little regard for price or quality. And investors differentiate even less in "risk off" mode, throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

If Europe's leaders manage to reestablish confidence in their respective sovereign bond markets, then it's "risk on" and commodities and lower quality, more speculative stocks should do phenomenally well. But if we have another setback — say, if a major piece of reform legislation gets torpedoed by squabbling among Euro nations, or a botched referendum — then it's "risk off" and you'd better be in cash.

In my view, this means implementing a dividend-focused strategy. Buy companies that survived the 2008 meltdown intact and actually raised their dividends that year. At current prices, your risk of long-term or permanent loss may be lessened. And if Europe's economy blows up, you can be reasonably certain that your dividend checks won't bounce.


Raising Taxes on the Rich: Not Whether, but How
This time last year Republicans were insisting that the Bush tax cuts be made permanent without paying for a penny of the cost, even though there is no evidence that they stimulated the economy.

Republicans like to pretend that cutting spending is economically costless, even stimulative, whereas raising taxes in any way whatsoever is so economically debilitating that it dare not be contemplated. This view is complete nonsense.

Careful studies by the Congressional Budget Office and others show that certain spending programs are highly stimulative, whereas tax cuts provide very little bang for the buck.

Keep in mind that these results are symmetrical. A policy with a high multiplier, such as government purchases, will reduce the gross domestic product by exactly the same amount if it involves spending cuts. A tax cut with a low multiplier will have an equally small negative economic effect if it is instead done as a tax increase.

Growing numbers of millionaires and billionaires have gone on record as favoring higher taxes on the rich, because they can afford them and think they're necessary to deal with our nation's fiscal problem, which is largely due to historically low revenues.

It is no longer possible to deny that there has been a sharp rise in the income and wealth of the ultra-rich while everyone else's income has stagnated. Authoritative recent studies by the Congressional Budget Office and by Anthony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez prove that fact beyond question.

But the idea that the rich cannot or should not pay more should be dismissed out of hand. They can and must pay more; the only question is how best to do it.


Fed Is “Ruining an Entire Class of Investors” Says Jim Rogers
Rogers has been a critic of the Fed's quantitative easing programs and artificially low interest rates, pointing to the latter as something akin to QE3 in drag.

"What the Federal Reserve is doing now is ruining an entire class of investors," says Rogers. By forcing rates down and keeping the economy on a flatline, he believes the Fed could cause another lost generation of investments. Suffice it to say, vaporizing those who faithfully accumulated savings over the years is no way to restore confidence in our financial markets.

"I'm long commodities and currencies; I'm short emerging market stocks, U.S. technology stocks, and I'm short European stocks," Rogers tells me after pronouncing himself a terrible market timer (author's note: He's nothing of the sort). His logic behind the portfolio is that he wins if the economy turns up due to commodity scarcity. And if the economy remains weak, Rogers' short positions will more than offset his long positions.


2012 Mortgage delinquencies seen dropping sharply
If the U.S. economy does not suffer more setbacks, the rate of mortgage holders behind on their payments should decline significantly by the end of next year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.

Banks are still working through a backlog of foreclosures created by issues including the robo-signing scandal, in which bank officials signed mortgage documents without verifying the information they contained. The issue surfaced last year in areas with large numbers of foreclosures, and banks had to backtrack and review foreclosures across the country to make sure their paperwork was in order.

Helping to cut the mortgage delinquency rate are a slowly improving job market and a stabilizing housing market.

The situation with credit cards is much stronger. Card delinquencies — payments late by 90 days or more — dropped to their lowest levels in 17 years during the spring, then saw a slight increase in the third quarter, but still remained near historic lows.

One reason card delinquencies are expected to remain so low is that credit is much tighter than it was before the recession. TransUnion data showed that nearly a quarter million new card accounts were opened by people with less-than-stellar credit scores during the third quarter, which contributed to the slight increase in late payments during the summer months. But banks are mainly still going after consumers with top-tier credit histories.

"People were protecting their home equity," he said. Credit cards were relatively easy to come by in years past, he said, so when money got tight, it was an easy decision to default on cards and maintain house payments. Now it's common to owe more on a mortgage than a house is actually worth, but credit cards are harder to get. So consumers are being practical and protecting what is more valuable to them.

He said he expects the equation will shift again if housing prices rebound and people go back to building home equity.


Occupy protesters take over homes, block evictions
In more than two dozens cities across the nation Tuesday, an offshoot of the Occupy Wall Street movement took on the housing crisis by re-occupying foreclosed homes, disrupting bank auctions and blocking evictions.

Hundreds of demonstrators slogged through the rainy streets of East New York, Brooklyn, stopping at the foreclosed homes that are littered throughout the low-income community and covering the "For Sale" signs with Occupy police tape.

Their message, as spelled out on protest signs: "Bail Out Workers, not the Banks."

The protesters' ultimate destination was a home that has been vacant ever since it was repossessed by the bank a couple of years ago. The plan was to take it over permanently and give it to a homeless family to live in.

In Minneapolis, protesters are trying to block the evictions of several area owners who fell behind on their mortgages because of illness or income loss.

One homeowner they're trying to help is Bobby Hull, an ex-marine and a master plasterer and contractor who has lived in his home since 1968. Hull still has income and access to financial help from family members, just not enough to pay his bloated mortgage principal.

"I can afford $800 or $900 a month; I can't afford $1,200 to $1,500," said Hull.

Foreclosure in his case made no sense, said Anthony Newby of Neighborhoods Organizing for Change. His mortgage balance was $275,000 but the auction of his home only fetched $80,000, less than one-third of the amount he owed. Everybody, including the bank, would have been better off reducing his balance to an affordable level, said Newby.


European CEOs Move Cash to Germany
Grupo Gowex, a Spanish provider of Wi-Fi wireless services, is moving funds to Germany because it expects Spain to exit the euro. German machinery maker GEA Group AG is setting maximum amounts held at any one bank.

The Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, registered capital inflows of 11.3 billion euros ($15 billion) from non-banks in September, according to the breakdown of its current account published Nov. 9. That helped transform a deficit of 47.3 billion euros in Germany's balance of other capital flows in August to a surplus of 700 million euros in September.

Companies outside the euro region are doing just as much preparation as those inside. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said yesterday he's seen studies suggesting a collapse of the euro would lead to a "very significant" drop in U.K. economic output.

Top of the list of concerns among companies is the collapse of one or more financial institutions in Europe. Executives say they're already moving money around to avert that risk.


Corporate warnings bode ill for earnings
On top of euro zone debt troubles, Wall Street now has to worry about sagging sales from Europe as a recession in the region seems more likely.

Earnings are now expected to increase 10.1 percent for the fourth quarter, down from a growth estimate of 15 percent at the start of October and from an estimate of 17.6 percent in July, according to Thomson Reuters data.

But the market for months has struggled with the news from Europe, which featured the lack of resolution to the debt crisis, causing high uncertainty for investors.

Prospects for profit and revenue growth have been among the chief reasons why a good number of analysts remain optimistic about stocks heading into 2012.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Strong Rebound On Investors Buying Followed By Short Covering

Market rebounds strongly in the week after an extended decline for many days. At the end of the week before, market fell to near previous bottom level. It is uncertain which direction market will go, whether to continue to fall or to rebound. As mentioned, there are both sellers and buyers on speculation or bargain hunting. The outcome is a strong rally which indicates that buyers' appetite is stronger than sellers. This bottom level has been reached before. And this indicates that market participants may regard this bottom level as a strong support. However, investors confidence remains low as European sovereign debt crisis remains a market concern. Market manipulators continue to use it as an excuse to create panic among investors.

As year end is approaching, many market participants are beginning to leave the market to draw an end to this year's work. Market manipulators have covered most of the short positions. The net profit is significant and they outperform the majority of market participants with their selling strategy starting from market peak in the year. Some individual investors are able to track market manipulators and sell the way down to recent bottom. However, the majority of individual investors are too late to follow the selling strategy. And many have sold at the bottom. Institutional investors also suffer significant loss after the market sell-offs. Fortunately, investors remain calm despite repeated sell-offs. Thus the pressure to liquidate portfolio to satisfy customer redemption is not severe.

Market participants remain cautious that market manipulators may create more market sell-offs. Therefore investors are still holding large amount of cash on hand. Many market participants have missed the opportunity to replenish the portfolio at the bottom as market opened sharply higher at the beginning of week from last week's recent bottom. The pessimistic investor sentiment in the market weaken the desire to purchase stocks but to wait for further decline from previous bottom. However there are no panic sellers to fulfill the desire to drive market further down. And a wave of buying triggers short covering from market manipulators and day traders to realize profit from earlier short selling.

Market manipulators and institutional investors are preparing for the year end vacation. However day traders and individual investors remain active on hope to recover some of the loss incurred from the market sell-offs in the past months.

It appears that there is strong support for market at recent bottom. However, many investors are still thin in portfolio and have plenty of cash to wait for market drop. On the other hand, holders of stock are not willing to dump at this level. Hot capital in the market will continue to create market turbulence which is also opportunity for speculators.



Bush tax cuts: The real endgame
Congress has a way of waiting to the very last minute to resolve big issues, so December is usually a busy month on Capitol Hill. This year will be no exception.

This December, for example, lawmakers will have to decide, among other things, whether to extend the payroll tax cut, long-term unemployment benefits, the Medicare "doc fix," Alternative Minimum Tax relief and a bevy of business tax breaks.

But that list -- worth less than $1 trillion -- will pale in comparison to the $5 trillion of fiscal decisions likely to be left for a lame-duck Congress during the seven weeks between the Nov. 6 election and New Year's Eve.

Bush-era tax cuts: If Congress does nothing, the 2001, 2003 and 2006 tax cuts will expire at the end of December 2012.

If they do expire, most Americans' tax bills would go up and the surge of additional revenue into federal coffers would greatly improve the deficit picture over the next decade.

"I expect a go-big, $3 trillion to $4 trillion deficit reduction plan," said long-term budget expert Stan Collender.

As with most presidential budget proposals, however, Congress won't adopt it in whole, or even necessarily in part.


Black Friday: Record $52.4 billion spent, according to NRF
Earlier than ever store openings and steep discounts helped retailers notch record sales this Black Friday weekend, according to early reports.

Total spending over the four-day weekend following Thanksgiving reached a record $52.4 billion, up 16% from $45 billion last year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation released Sunday.

Cyber Monday could also notch a new record, according to online tracking firm ComScore. Online sales for 2011 are projected to hit $1.2 billion, up from $1 billion last year, Andrew Lipsman, ComScore's industry analyst, said.

While Black Friday marks the unofficial start of the holiday season, it is still too early to say whether this consumer spending momentum will continue until Christmas, noted NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis.


Black Friday isn't the only game in town
"There are hundreds of promotions going on this time of year," says Steve Uline, head of marketing for Gander. "We needed to do something a little bit different."

"Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving, in the 1960s became known as the point when merchants turn a profit or operate "in the black." Later, retailers began marketing it as the start of the holiday shopping season with earlier store hours and deep discounts of up to 70 percent off.

It's since become the busiest shopping day of the year. This past weekend, "Black Friday" sales were $11.4 billion, up 7 percent, or nearly $1 billion from the same day last year, according to a report by ShopperTrak, which gathers data from 25,000 outlets across the country. It was the largest amount ever spent on that day.

Marketers are hoping to strike gold again. Many are doing so by appealing to Americans who've become disenchanted with big business and commercialism.


The Rising Cost of Free Shipping
Shoppers may have more incentive to buy online this year: the sales are as big as -- if not better than -- in-store offers and many retailers are offering free shipping. The catch, say experts: Shoppers have to spend a lot more.

A growing number of sites automatically offer free shipping on orders of a certain amount, no coupon code required, Knowles says. In the past year, JC Penney, Macy's, L.L. Bean, Gap and Nordstrom all moved to that model. Such offers let shoppers grab free shipping and still use a coupon code (or two) to further reduce their total.


Annual compensation could fall 30 percent at Wall St firms
Annual compensation for employees at big Wall Street firms could fall 27-30 percent from a year earlier to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a compensation study conducted by the Options Group.

Bonuses, which constitute a substantial part of many finance workers' pay, are on track to decline 35-40 percent, on average, according to the forecast by Options Group, an executive search and consulting firm, the Journal said.


How the Fed Rescue Benefited Banks
A report by Bloomberg News offers a new way of quantifying the Federal Reserve's vast efforts to save financial companies from collapse during the crisis that peaked in 2008.

The central bank provided emergency loans, asset purchases and other aid totaling roughly $7.8 trillion during a two-year period ending in March 2009, easily the largest component of the government efforts to bulwark the financial system.

In an article in the January issue of Bloomberg Markets, published online Sunday night, Bloomberg offers an estimate that the aid allowed financial companies to book profits of roughly $13 billion during that period, largely by borrowing from the Fed at low interest rates and then using the money to make loans and investments with higher rates of return.

The estimate may well overstate the direct value of the Fed's loans, as banks used much of the money for short-term purposes that tend to have lower profit margins. Importantly, however, it also greatly understates the broader value of the loans: The money helped many recipients to survive.

Citigroup is a case in point. Bloomberg estimates that the Fed's loans increased the bank's profits by $1.8 billion. The real story, of course, is that government help saved the troubled bank from collapse.


Top central banks move to avoid global liquidity crunch
Central banks from the world's leading developed economies said on Wednesday they will take coordinated steps to prevent a lack of liquidity in the global financial system, as the euro zone attempts to find a way to stem its debt crisis.

The surprise coordinated move by central banks was aimed at preventing global financial markets from coming under pressure that could potentially lead to a seizing up of credit.

"The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity," the banks said in typically stilted language.


Don’t Hate the Game and Don’t Call It a “Sucker’s Rally”
A day after coordinated central bank action sent financial markets screaming higher, Thursday was shaping up as a day of rest and reflection -- and a little bit of giveback.

But don't call the gains this week (remember, Monday was a big up day too) a "sucker's rally", says my Breakout colleague Jeff Macke.

"You can't describe it as 'sucker's rally' because we had negative numbers today," Macke says. "Data for the whole week has just crushed...been so good, so positive," including a big jump in consumer confidence, a strong ADP employment report, a very positive Chicago PMI report, as well as today's generally solid November same-store sales data.

Of course, housing data remains punk and third-quarter productivity was revised down but the data provide "strong evidence the American economy, like it or not, is improving," Macke says.

"Like it or not" may be the operative phrase when it comes to the rally itself. As I mentioned in our Twitter-chat last night, people hate "manipulated" markets -- myself very much included. The idea the Fed is rescuing Europe -- by providing liquidity the ECB refuses to make available -- is "loathsome," as Macke says.

But that doesn't mean the market can't keep rallying.

To Macke, "we still have structurally the ingredients for a bull market" with the professionals under-invested or net short and retail investors largely on the sidelines.

"There's a lot to hate about what the economy and Fed have been doing since at least 2009; but you can't stay short stocks forever because of what 'should' happen," he says. "The higher we go -- if we hold these gains...it's going to get hideous if you're hugely short."

Along with easy money, fund managers' fear of underperforming their benchmarks and their peers -- a.k.a. "performance anxiety" -- are the two most powerful forces on Wall Street.