Sunday, December 23, 2012

黃楚標2億買DBC 大班轉戰網台

香港數碼廣播電台(DBC)停播兩月,DBC創辦人鄭經翰、股東夏佳理和何國輝,將會把DBC四成股份,出售予DBC主席兼第二大董事黃楚標,本月31日將會簽署買賣合約。鄭經翰早前提出價高者得方案讓股東互相競投,兩人表示未能負擔黃楚標提出的競投價錢,最後雙方達成共識,有指回購方案涉兩億元。鄭經翰對於出售DBC感可惜,他表示將會把股份所得回報投資於新的網上電台。

Friday, December 21, 2012

李偉儀新婚之喜 (轉載圖片)




行李箱唔夠位帶一套裙褂去溫哥華,改穿媽咪送既繡花上衣

結婚過大禮 全屋擺滿嫁囍禮物



Market Slumps On Fiscal Cliff Gridlock

Market is shaken by worry on fiscal cliff negotiation. Traders and market manipulators trade on the news while market participants are very cautious. However, investors are no longer running in animal spirit as during the US rating downgrade in last year. With load of cash on the sideline and a thin portfolio in equity stocks, investors are watching the progress and waiting for opportunities. Speculators and traders dominate the trades before the vacation.

While households are staying away from equity stock market and finding safe haven in treasuries and bonds as well as cash and gold, four years after the financial meltdown, investors come back to the peak of wealth before the crisis. Wealthy investors did not dump the stocks when market was selling in panic because decline in stock price would not affect living standard at all. On the other hand, when market began to recover, stocks were accumulated with the stable income. Therefore wealthy investors have already surpassed the peak wealth in last year. Smart investors also have appreciable gain after years of rising stock market. Even the pessimistic individual investors are seeing a growth of wealth to near the peak before the crisis with savings from the last few years and appreciation in core equity stock assets.
The pullback on concern of fiscal cliff would be an opportunity for market participants to replenish the portfolio at a relatively low cost. However, market participants are afraid that market manipulators may use other insider news to drag down market further. Therefore many investors prefer to wait until fiscal cliff and debt ceiling negotiation becomes clear. But as the financial market is flooded with cash and investors are turning less pessimistic in long term outlook, market is supported by demand from yield hungry investors. Also, increasing number of market participants are gaining confidence in market and take advantage on market pullback to pick up bargains and take profit when market rallies. Therefore market collapse is very unlikely and investors waiting on the sideline realized that the bottom of each pullback are higher than the previous trough. Nevertheless many investors keep on waiting on hope that a major correction may appear some day. But it is believed that market would surpass historic peak before any major pullback at which time broad market index may even be higher than current level.



In 2013, Stocks Set for Fifth Straight Year of Gains: Paulsen
Since Breakout started, Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management has come on the show regularly and expressed a bullish view. Despite weak earnings, fiscal cliffs, debt-ceiling debates and downgrades, he's been right. Now, he's doubling down on his bullish view for 2013.

"Next year will probably be the fifth consecutive year of positive equity returns," Paulsen says in the attached video. He's looking for double-digit returns without the terrifying dips and rips we've seen since the bullish streak started in 2009. Ironically, he thinks gains in 2013 may be the hardest to justify from a fundamental perspective.

It's not the earnings that are going to drive us, he says. Earnings growth and margins have been tailing off hard over the back half of 2012, and Paulsen is looking for more of the same in the months ahead. What will move the markets higher in Paulsen's estimation is a willingness of investors to pay up for each dollar of earnings in the S&P 500.

Why the confidence boost? Pointing to the last four years, Paulsen says investors have been assuming the end of the recovery every year. This "cultural mindset" been based on any number of forces, both real and imagined.

Entering 2013, we'll have some sort of resolution on the fiscal cliff, for better or worse, Europe steadying and China's new leadership team promising stability. Nothing has particularly improved, but the worst has been avoided. Eventually, investors are going to notice and start shifting assets into stocks and out of bonds.


Stocks Are the Only Asset Class to Own: Josh Brown
Equities are attracting investors again after November’s sell-off for one simple reason: "There aren’t any alternatives to stocks," says Josh Brown, vice president of investments at Fusion Analytics and author of the popular “The Reformed Broker."

Brown prefers bond-like-equities any day over U.S. government debt and believes efforts by central bankers around the globe will keep buoying markets for the foreseeable future. As for market leadership, Brown says Apple’s days are over as investors increasingly rotate to financials, one of the best-performing industry groups in the S&P 500 this year.

But he's no raging bull. Higher stock prices are obscuring weak market fundamentals, Brown argues, and he points to disappointing earnings reports from U.S. multinationals.


The New 'Goldilocks' Stock Thesis
Stocks are at multimonth highs. The "haven" plays -- gold and bonds -- are being sold.

The "fiscal cliff" does not seem quite so ominous. The euro is at an eight-month high; German stocks are at new highs.

The markets seem to be reallocating resources: from Treasurys to stocks ... from gold to euros.

What is this new Goldilocks thesis? The bulls argue: 1) we're moving to greater clarity on taxes; 2) Europe is showing determination to stay together; 3) China is bottoming; and 4) corporate balance sheets are in good shape.

Bears are not so amused by these arguments. It's all a fantasy, they say: 1) We will get growth with rising taxes and lower spending; 2) we will have unlimited stimulus that will not cause inflation; 3) we will shift from bonds into stocks without a bond crash; and 4) the government will easily be able to afford the higher interest rate expenses they will soon have to pay.


Why the Nation's Largest Pension Fund Manager Is Optimistic
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is essentially flat over the last 12 years. Median household net worth is down. Inflation-adjusted earnings for most Americans are below where they were a decade ago.

It's ugly.

Yet Joseph Dear, chief investment officer of CalPERS, the nation's largest pension fund with nearly a quarter-trillion dollars under management, is optimistic. He thinks we're turning a corner -- housing is coming back, corporations are competitive, and the investment world is too pessimistic.

Now why do I say that? I think housing is likely to see an upturn next year, and that's going to drive a lot of employment and consumption. I think if you look at U.S. companies, they're incredibly competitive. They're really good values in terms of the U.S., of the global economy. I think Europe is on the way to solving the problem, and I was really very skeptical about Europe for most of 2012, whether the Union would be able to make the difficult decisions they've had to make. And I think the leadership transition in China means they've got more levers to pull in terms of keeping Chinese growth up. So on that picture, better than what we've seen. Not like what we saw before the crash, before the financial crisis, but reason to be more optimistic. And that should just make life a little bit better or all investors.

Well, I think there's growing optimism. I'm not on the leading edge of this, but I still think the mindset is having been bruised so badly with losses and terrorized by fear of a real meltdown in the global economy that pessimism reigns.

There's a great quote by the economist A. C. Pigou that said that the error of optimism in dying gives birth to a new era: error of pessimism, which is born not a baby, but a giant. And we are still working through that pessimism phase.


Cash Is King: Printing of $100 Bills Soars
A good detective always looks for a motive when beginning an investigation. And so, when Nick Colas discovered that the number of $100 bills printed last year suddenly spiked, the chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group decided to figure out what was going on.

Part of this new demand, he says, comes from the classic nefarious sources: drug dealers, arms smugglers, tax cheats and bribes. But some of it is also due to hoarding or the fact that more people than ever, oddly enough, are losing faith in government and/or the economy and are shunning the surety of traditional investments. It's a phenomenon that's led to a huge increase in demand for gold and other precious metals, but also for — you guessed it — $100 bills.

And it's not just here at home. While it's hard to quantify the exact amount, it is believed that the majority of $100 bills are probably being held overseas, since they are globally recognized, widely accepted and the easiest way to store wealth.

But alas, there is a silver lining to be found within all of this dollar debasement that at least one Wall Street veteran points to. "It proves beyond a doubt that the dollar is still the reserve currency of choice around the world," Colas concludes. "It may not [always] be from the most savory part of the economy, but it does signal that there's still a lot of faith in the dollar."


Majority of Rich Want Themselves Taxed More: Poll
House Republicans are opposing tax increases on anyone - whether it's Americans making $250,000 or $1 million or more a year.

But a new survey shows that they might be opposing the very people they claim to protect.

"There is an absolute willingness for the vast majority of the One Percent to take a tax increase," said Jim Taylor, Vice Chairman Harrison Group. "What the Republicans think is not necessarily what their constituents think."

Nearly three quarters of them are "extremely or very concerned about their taxes going up." Other recent surveys show that the wealthy support higher taxes as part of a balanced solution to the government debt problem that includes spending cuts.

Still, a majority support for tax increases on themselves, presumably for the sake of the broader economy. Taylor said that for many of the wealthy, the possible reduction in asset values stemming from problems in Washington far outweigh the potential reduction in their income.

Monday, December 17, 2012

2012年12月13日 <香港電台> 講東講西-童年之聖誕節

節目主持:劉天賜、鄧達智、周騫、翁健瑜
video

video

野豬現柴灣 中槍狂奔越東廊 (原載《明報》)


闖入柴灣公園的野豬長約1米、重約40公斤,雖被獸醫麻醉槍射中,但仍能越過東區走廊數條行車線,之後跳入草叢不知所終。(林智傑攝)

野豬與帶備盾牌的漁護署人員及警員在柴灣公園捉迷藏逾7小時,其間眾人靠欄稍息。(林智傑攝)

【明報專訊】柴灣昨晨發現1米長野豬蹤影,該隻頑皮野豬獨自在柴灣公園小睡,惹來晨運客報警,警方聯同漁護署人員帶備盾牌及網與野豬展開追捕戰,其間野豬雖被獸醫以麻醉槍擊中,惟仍能生猛地逃走,並走出公園對出一段東區走廊,飛越4條行車線,逃入草叢後失去蹤影。一眾警員及漁護署人員遭野豬折騰逾7小時,終收隊離開。

公園小睡 3麻醉槍兩射失
漁農自然護理署發言人表示,該隻野豬啡色約1米長、重40公斤,相信剛成年,該署獸醫追捕期間共向野豬射了3次麻醉槍,最後一槍擊中野豬,惟牠最後逃去。

愛護動物協會發言人說,野豬是群體生活動物,多與同伴聚居於人迹罕至、地勢較高的山林,估計該頭野豬於尋找食物期間與同伴失散,沿山坡走到柴灣公園,而野豬的獵物多於冬季冬眠,故野豬現時會較活躍四出覓食。

現場為柴灣附近順泰道柴灣公園,昨早8時許,有晨運客於覽瀑亭發現野豬蹤影,於是報警。6名警員及漁護署人員帶同盾牌、繩及網到場,惟野豬已逃到對開山坡,人員遂沿樓梯登上山坡尋找野豬蹤迹,未幾發現牠正伏地小睡。

追捕逾7小時 入草叢逃去
至下午12時許,兩名獸醫各帶同麻醉槍到場,當時野豬已睡醒,獸醫鎖定其位置後向牠開了兩槍麻醉槍,但均落空,野豬其後進出樹林間,跟獸醫捉迷藏,至下午約3時,野豬突然現身,獸醫看準機會再向牠開了一槍麻醉槍,雖成功擊中野豬,惟麻醉藥藥力似對野豬無效,野豬迅速沿山坡逃出公園,10多名警員及漁護署人員尾隨。

野豬走到公園山坡旁鐵網,越過兩條往柴灣方向的東區走廊行車線,再企圖跳上一個近4呎高分隔石壆,惟撞到石壆防撞欄後反彈倒地,野豬「屢敗屢戰」,第二次終跳上石壆,再奔往對面兩條行車線,走到柴灣港鐵站下草叢失去蹤影。至下午4時,警員及漁護署人員搜索無果,相信野豬已離開,遂收隊離場。

Friday, December 14, 2012

Market Wavers; Investors Wait

Equity stock market seesawed in the week amid investors concern on fiscal cliff. Since market participants have been adjusting the portfolio a few weeks ago when market focus begins to shift to fiscal cliff, there is not much selling from market participants lately although investors weight on the fear for several weeks.

Day traders continue to execute trades based on progress in fiscal cliff negotiation. Investors have prepared for market reaction to a final outcome and are now waiting. Therefore trading volume drops and market oscillates in a tight range.

Market will remain relatively calm until the issue on fiscal cliff becomes clear. Market participants remain low confidence in short term but turn positive in long term because of improving economic data. Also rise in household wealth, approaching the peak before financial crisis, also boosts investor confidence. As mentioned in earlier post, the wealthy elite already surpass the peak in last year due to surging stock market as well as personal income. Average households lag in the race in wealth because of low equity stock exposure and a slower rise in income earning. Equity stock market should be the last to surpass the peak due to low investor confidence.



China wealth inequality at globally rare levels
China’s Gini coefficient has reached a shockingly high level as its wealth gap grows, a recent academic report said, calling attention to the equality indicator that the government hasn’t tracked for years.

The Gini coefficient measures the wealth gap on a scale of 0 to 1. The higher the figure, the greater the inequality. A reading above 0.4 usually marks strong inequality.

China’s figure was globally rare, the report says. However, it added that it is natural for a fast-developing economy to score high.


S&P: U.S. Companies Underinvest by Billions
U.S. corporations cut an estimated $175 billion in investment from 2009-2011, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor's, in a move that boosted the cash reserves that have helped them through the financial crisis, but could eventually harm their competitiveness.

The heavy cost-cutting that took place meant corporate cash flows continued to grow during the period that investment was put off, leading to U.S. nonfinancial companies holding a record $1.26 trillion in cash balances as of June 2012.

As a whole, the companies rated by S&P only returned to prerecession levels of investment, relative to revenues, in the first half of 2012—a development the ratings agency said could be reversed in 2013 due to worries over the so-called fiscal cliff and the European debt crisis.

That would be a bad move, according to S&P. "Cash flow-positive companies have two choices: expand their business either through investments or acquisitions or return the cash to their shareholders," the report said. "We believe the option many companies have chosen in recent years, preserving the cash, can only be a short-term solution."


Higher Taxes Will Create Jobs and Cut the Deficit: David Cay Johnston
President Obama hit the road this week to build national support for increasing taxes on wealthy Americans. On Monday the president addressed autoworkers in Redford, Mich., outlining his budget proposal and explaining why higher tax rates were necessary at this critical juncture.

"Our economic success has never come from the top down," Obama said. "It comes from the middle out; it comes from the bottom up."

David Cay Johnston, Pulitzer prize-winning journalist and author of The Fine Print: How Big Companies Use "Plain English" to Rob You Blind, says higher taxes can actually create jobs, not kill them. In an interview with The Daily Ticker, he argues that additional revenue collected from higher taxes could be spent on infrastructure repairs and construction, a win-win situation for the nation and workers.

Johnston also supports higher taxes on the rich and says empirical evidence on the impact of low tax rates on the economy are overwhelmingly in favor of the president's proposal.

"Government revenues are down and total income for the bottom 90% of Americans has fallen back to 1966 levels," he says. Wealthy Americans are paying a larger share of their incomes in taxes "but their incomes have grown much more significantly so their share of income going toward taxes has fallen," Johnston says. "Of all the income gains in this entire country in 2010, 37 percent of it went to 15,600 households out of 156 million."

Taxes will likely rise for all Americans if lawmakers are truly serious about tackling the deficit, according to Johnston.

"If you're concerned about deficits, you need to bring in more money," he says. The economy may be too "delicate" to let the Bush tax cuts expire for lower income individuals right now Johnston concedes, but "as the economy gets stronger, there will need to be adjustments."


Goldman Sachs: Stocks Are the New Bonds
Central bank quantitative easing programs have left little value in the credit markets, so Investors should be looking for returns in European equities rather than bonds, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs told CNBC.

The global economic crisis might have caused investors to park their money into perceived safe-haven assets such as German bunds and U.S. Treasurys with near-zero yields, but Oppenheimer said on Thursday that investors would see higher dividends in European equities. According to him, the STOXX Europe 600 could deliver annual returns of more than 7 percent - despite stagnation in the euro area.

"So far, there has been a net absence of net flows going into the equity market, particularly in Europe,so equities have become almost an orphan asset class.But as more liquidity comes into the global economy through central bank actions and there is little value left in fixed-income markets, and even credit,equities will benefit by default," he said on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange".

"Next year, we do expect a recovery in the global economy...to which Europe's corporate sector is very well levered. It's that global recovery that allows margins to rise a little bit in the euro zone, gives some top-line growth and overall profit growth of around 9 percent."

Thursday, December 13, 2012

DBC打不死下周一變種 D100殺出路90日維新 (原載《信報》)


林旭華(左圖:中)牽頭發起「D100義播雲天九十日」,跟鄭經翰(左圖:左)與何國輝(左圖:右)密謀令DBC可以藉網絡來一場火鳳凰重生;下周一再「復播」,工作人員日以繼夜再夜以繼日設置好直播室,一向有要求的大班繼續意見多多。

因受政治打壓而已經壽終正寢的數碼廣播電台(DBC),正密鑼緊鼓準備再次復播!

在DBC主持林旭華牽頭下,電台將於下周一起,發起「D100義播雲天九十日」行動,雖然失去大氣電波這個「主場」,但電台就索性轉移陣地,利用網絡來進行廣播,除藉「義播」回饋聽眾,以及再次凝聚一眾主持及公眾外,更希望藉這90天經驗作「試金石」,為開發網絡市場鋪路,同時銳意成為香港網絡上第一家主流電台。

再次「開台」在即,DBC大股東兼創辦人鄭經翰,另一股東兼行政總裁何國輝,以及義播「搞手」林旭華三人接受老紀專訪,大談這個火鳳凰重生大計!

訪問在將軍澳壹傳媒大樓內進行,為免外界誤會DBC今次復播跟壹傳媒有關,又或是以為DBC跟壹傳媒合作,「大班」鄭經翰在訪問之先,即主動解釋,「我哋之前搵過好多地方,但夠大的地方唔多,最後先去呢度,主要係因為同《爽報》曾有過合作關係,所以今次係借或者講係租佢哋嘅studio,純係租客同房東(關係),我哋喺度用而造成的所有支出,都要畀番錢。」

至於由下周一開始的「D100義播雲天九十日」,大班直言促成行動有兩大原因,第一是服務聽眾,「我哋本身已有solid的聽眾群,大家共過患難,已經係朋友,冇得聽,佢哋好失落呀,所以好希望我哋繼續發聲」;其次,就是希望再次凝聚DBC的節目主持人。

不過,有別於上次的義播,當時DBC仍可以使用大氣電波,但DBC現時已被接管,故義播亦要轉移陣地,改為利用網絡來作平台進行廣播。

大班反覆強調,「D100」絕不是網台,「我哋只係透過網絡來廣播的電台,我哋甚至自願接受廣管局的條例規管,現時的網台雖然好靈活,但多數以業餘方式運作,但我哋就會以主流電台方式運作。」

他又笑言,唯一跟網台相似的,是義播在明年開始,會跟網台一樣都有視像直播,但網台會令節目猶如變成電視節目,義播提供視像,卻只是走「真人騷」路線,用來讓外界了解電台的真實運作,至於壹傳媒借出的場地,本來是錄影棚,正好因利乘便,方便作一些後期加工製作。

「大班」不諱言,以網絡廣播方式進行90日的義播,目的之一是作「姿態性顯示」,由於DBC的股東爭拗,將於下月中在法庭審議,現時義播,正好表明「我哋即日可以接收DBC」,「佢做唔掂但我做得到,更即時可以做到,你畀番個台我,我哋即時可以播得番晒所有節目,所以今次可以講話係我哋停播後,重回廣播的第一步。」

此外,只能以網絡作廣播,大班更視之為「進可攻,退可守」的契機!他表示,DBC本來的發展計劃,是先發展數碼廣播,之後階段就會發展互聯網,遺憾是第一步已壯志未酬,故此現時沒有了大氣電波,便正好藉今次經驗當試金石,探討發展互聯網廣播的模式,「現時年輕人就算聽電台都係上網聽,加上海外的聽眾,我哋可以服務埋鄰國,以前我對網絡都好有保留,但科技發展一日千里,我哋要諗點整個user friendly的平台畀人用,而連蘋果公司都用雲端來做電視、電影,DBC後期在智能電話上的app,有30萬用戶,數量係冠絕全港,可以見得係不容忽視。」

DBC行政總裁何國輝就補充,互聯網只是一個發放平台,而聲音廣播有別於印刷媒體,前者在互聯網上更有獨特優勢,「印刷的報紙就好似啤酒,印出來係雪凍的啤酒,放上網就變成熱啤,但聲音在互聯網上跟大氣電波卻係一樣,唔會失真。」

他又指,由於利用互聯網廣播,能提供更精準的聽眾數字,甚至會令廣告模式也帶來改變,「過去電視台賣廣告,係睇收視收錢,但實際有幾多人接收到,係一個未知數,因為大氣電波唔會數到聽眾觀眾人數,但現時唔同,直情可以話畀個客知有幾多人聽。」

他續稱,跟網台最大的分別,是電台同時着重節目編排,着重實時(real time)播放,因而與聽眾有互動,「有聽眾同我哋講,話由股東事件開始先聽我哋,但就咁改變咗佢生活習慣,寧願提早啲買餸,我哋聽到咁,覺得唔忿氣,明明DBC令個雪球愈滾愈大,如果再唔做啲嘢,班聽眾又會流失咗。」

在旁的大班就插口跟老紀稱,這正好反駁過去外間說電台已死,「其實只係內容已死,我哋係將節目跟大家的生活節奏來安排,咁先可以成為人生活的一部分。」

問題是,大班過去多次稱DBC事件,由來都是一場政治打壓,既然如此,要重奪DBC的控制權又談何容易?大班就表示,他相信公義,並對香港司法制度仍有信心,但也不否認是「兩條腿走路」,故義播期間一樣會照收廣告,而未來就不排除在發展成熟時會出app收錢,「希望做到用者自付,始終世上係沒有免費午餐。」

其實,過去DBC在PCCW多媒體裝置及now的收費電視平台上,都有合作關係並提供內容,兩者各有20多萬及100多萬的訂戶,大班明言,現時模式如果做得好,將來不排除會再合作。

然而,未來90日主要只依賴網上廣播,會否擔心太多聽眾而造成網絡塞車,大班就豪言未驚過,「我哋網上客量就肯定OK的,真係唔夠,咪再加大客量,證明有好多人聽,所以係一個happy problem,即唔係問題。

開發平價網絡收音機再造福聽眾
DBC的出現,開展香港數碼廣播新一頁,據大班透露,現時市面最少有10萬部數碼收音機「流通」,但自DBC停播後,數碼收音機似乎即同時滯銷,反映出DBC確似能左右市場。

由於失去大氣電波,義播就以「D100有聲台」名義轉戰網絡,而除上網可以聽到電台節目外,為照顧不懂上網的聽眾,義播又設有電話直播,只要致電36786789,即可收聽現場節目。

大班昨日就跟老紀爆料,稱當時營運DBC為推廣數碼廣播,於是開發不少廉價數碼收音機,而現時亦積極開發兩個新收聽工具,包括收音機電話及平價版網絡收音機(Internet Radio),以配合推廣網絡廣播之用。他指出,收音機電話會配備發聲喇叭,當有來電時,電話就會自動暫停電台廣播讓用戶接聽來電;至於網絡收音機,他透露正跟廠商研究,希望令價格大幅降低。

資料顯示,所謂的網絡收音機,實是能接收WiFi訊號的收音機也!現時不少人都習慣上網聽歌、聽新聞,但因為要打開網頁,故便得留在電腦前,網絡收音機的好處,是可以隨身攜帶,由廚房、客廳至書房,只要接收到WiFi訊號,收音機就能播放網絡上的電台節目,這些電台包括網路電台、國外電台,以及許多現時AM/FM電台都提供的同步網上播放。然而,由於網絡收音機尚未普及,故售價都頗為昂貴,型號選擇亦有限,現時電腦商場內售賣的款式,價格動輒逾千元以上,而最便宜也近千元,就算從淘寶上的內地「山寨貨」,亦最少要數百元人民幣。