Friday, November 30, 2012

Market Consolidates; Fiscal Cliff Looms

After previous week of finding bottom, equity stock market struggled to bounce back. Fear of fiscal cliff has drawn attention of investors. Selling of stocks due to future dividend tax hike spreads to small investors. However, selling volume is very limited because of low exposure in equity stocks. This round of selling on fiscal cliff fear should have finished.

As market enters the last trading month of year, market participants begin to review the yearly investment result. Most of market participants are below broad market performance due to pessimistic sentiment in a strong market. Institutional and individual investors miss the year start rally and pass the buying opportunity on Euro zone debt crisis. Nevertheless, the calm reaction to the crisis is already better than the panic selling in previous year due to US rating downgrade. As a result, market manipulators cannot make as much profit as in last year when investors are dumping stocks on US rating downgrade.

Looking back on stock market performance in the last few years, the trend is as predicted which is a gradual upward trend with oscillations. After this round of selling, market should move up again in this cycle. Market manipulators effort to create panic selling becomes less effective as market participants have already dumped significant portion of equity stocks during the panic selling in previous years.

While investors are hiding in the safe haven of treasuries and bonds, market advances on improving economy and rising corporate profits. After the strong market rebound in 2009, many investors missed the rally and hoped for another market crash to re-enter market. Despite the widespread market fear of a double-dip, it was posted that double-dip in economy was very unlikely while a double-dip in stock market was not likely but still possible. It comes out that market has pullbacks but the magnitude was much smaller than many market participants would expect. Therefore many investors remain in the treasuries and bond market.

The following dialogue is found on the internet. It is representative of different investors attitude toward current equity stock market environment.

BEAR:
some of the guys even admitted there projections for this year weren't even close. Guesses is a better word for it than 'projections'. Nobody knows for sure, not even 'experts'. Far too many unknowns to have a hope of making an accurate projection a year from now.

But for me, until there's a major correction, i'm not going back into the stock market. Period. If i get left behind by some rally so be it, but there are so many negative influences about and so few positive ones, to my mind, the downside risk is far greater than the upside gain potential.

BULL:
I agree with you on the guesses. That's what they are but I think it's a mistake to be out of the market. It's also a guess as to whether they'll be a correction. The more substantive issue in your favor at this time is the decade plus struggle of the market. If you don't invest when things look bad when do you invest? If you invest when everything looks great it's too late. If that were how it works it would be a savings account. Nevertheless you sound like a reasonable guy. Good luck.

BEAR:
well, you're supposed to sell high and buy low, and right now in my view stock values are high not low They're puffed up on printed money and hope, and that isn't sound enough for me to venture back in, with a european recession just beginning, the huge US defecit and debt which will take its toll on the economy one way or the other, and the ghastly amount of central bank money printing which is going to have a big pricetag attached to it down the road..

BULL:
The thing about valuations is they can be a bit subjective and it's a poor timing mechanism.The great B Nygren sees the current valuations as very positive(see recent Barron's article) as do others. Sentiment from a longer term perspective is poor indeed with the average investor underweighted in stocks and overweighted in bonds. There's an indicator right there. A lot of people so certain in the late 90's that stocks would continue higher are no doubt the most bitterly resistant to this current bullish move(2009-2012). Once this tide turns and people come out of bonds into stocks it will be a major propellant. The darkest hours are always the best and the brightest should be times we reassess and consider leaving. Corporations are flush with money and once they pull the trigger to use it, it will be interesting. Working on the premise that poor investor sentiment is a good indicator for continued poor investment results will cost you a pantload as the Etrade baby says. Take a gander at the comments on this board and see how many line up bearish or bullish. The bears have been staying the course for going on four years ignoring a virtual double.




Smart Money? Hedge Funds Now Worse Than Mutual Funds
Hedge fund managers don’t have much to be thankful for these holidays, as failure to beat low-fee index funds will likely infuriate investors shelling out hefty fees for their services.

To make matters worse, hedge fund managers have crowded into the same trades, with turnover at a record low, according to Goldman.

“Many hedge funds turned into mutual funds — but with higher fees and worse performance — this year,” said Mike Murphy, who runs hedge fund Rosecliff Capital. “Hedge funds have underperformed because they have been hedging against a massive market correction as the memory of 2008 is still fresh in every one’s mind.”

It’s not just closet indexing leading to this underperformance. Record low interest rates globally have led to high correlations between stocks, bonds, gold and currencies, making it difficult for hedge fund managers to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.


Exodus From Stocks: 'Investors Are Turning Tail'
Fear of the "Fiscal Cliff" is causing the biggest exodus from U.S. stocks this year as investors essentially put their money under the mattress rather than trust Congress to come up with a compromise.

Some traders said the outflows may continue even if Congress comes to some sort of agreement before the end of the year. That's because any compromise is likely to include higher taxes on dividends and capital gains, at least for the highest earners.

"It's tough to pinpoint causation," said Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital. "Is it fiscal fears or concerns about dividends and capital gains increases?"

To be sure, others feel the retail investor could be getting out at just the wrong time with the potential for a big rally if Congress hatches a deal.

"The anxiety relating to the cliff is largely in the market," said Tony Crescenzi, market strategist for PIMCO. "Fear of the possibility is embedded in people's minds sufficiently enough to provide a cushion against some of the anxiety that is bound to appear before resolution of the cliff, which most do not expect until the week before Christmas."


Why Has Wall Street Gotten So Bullish About Next Year?
Even the bears are bullish for 2013, a year in which virtually every Wall Street expert believes the market will overcome its many headwinds and post a positive year.

While retail investors have been preoccupied with worries over fiscal armageddon, an election that is now past and a global economy nearing stall speed, strategists have been busy with projections that see sizeable stock gains.

Their reasons: A U.S. economy that is on the mend due to the nascent housing recovery and an expected surge in earnings, more cheap money from the Federal Reserve, and a general feeling that none of the various-worst scenarios out there will come to fruition.

"At first blush, it seemed like an inopportune time to commit to a year-ahead target and outlook, what with so many global uncertainties in our path," said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at Standard & Poor's/Capital IQ. "But most of these uncertainties have been with us for quite some time, and are now regarded by many as annoyances to resolve rather than obstacles to fear."

"History, global monetary policy, and the fundamental sweet spot of U.S. economic data argue strongly for better performance as we move...into next year," Canaccord's Tony Dwyer and Michael Welch said.

Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, remains bullish with a 1,500 call. The firm is "encouraged by the continued intention of central banks to maintain accommodative policy" and believes that "given current market pricing, equities continue to offer the best risk-adjusted return compared to other asset classes."

"We are cautious on the near-term outlook for US equities, but we remain constructive on the medium to longer term outlook," Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at BofA, said in a note. "Given the S&P 500's attractive valuation and weak investor sentiment, we expect positive earnings growth to drive the market to 1,600 by the end of 2013."


Seller’s Remorse Will Drive Stocks Higher Through Year End: Kilburg
Bears leaning against stocks into the end of the year will rue the day according to Jeff Kilburg, founder & CEO of Killir Kapital Management. In the attached clip the CNBC Contributor and former member of the Notre Dame football team says sellers were caught offsides by last week's rally, leaving them scrambling to get long exposure.

But there are reasons to be cautious. Beyond the familiar question marks in Europe and China, dismal corporate earnings and tax changes likely to be implemented early next year as part of the Fiscal Cliff have investors trimming stocks. It may not make sense to sell stocks to avoid a higher capital gains tax rate, but high yield stocks will lose fundamental value should dividend taxes be increased.

Uncertainty can make traders of us all. Kilburg thinks the people selling ahead of last week's ramp are going to be driven back into markets as a function of remorse as much as anything else. Should a rally materialize those short stocks here will be forced to buy in not through regret, but to stop the bleeding in their trading book. Either way, there figures to be people buying stocks at higher prices.


Taxing Wealth Is the Answer for Boosting Long-Term Growth: Dan Altman
Taxes are going up for most Americans on Jan. 1 unless Congress and the White House agree to a new plan to raise revenues and cut spending. This plan would avoid the massive tax hikes and spending cuts lawmakers agreed to last summer.

At this point in the negotiations over how to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, some Republicans are warming to the idea of raising revenues but they haven't committed to higher tax rates. President Obama insists on raising income tax rates for those earning more than $250,000 annually. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett favors higher tax rates on incomes above $500,000, and many in Washington and elsewhere are calling for an overhaul of the tax code that would eliminate or reduce common tax breaks.

Economist Daniel Altman is proposing something completely different on the tax front --- a system that taxes wealth rather than revenue. It's not intended to raise more revenues but rather to reduce inequality which, he says, threatens growth.

"Wealth inequality is making the pie smaller for all of us," Altman tells The Daily Ticker. It limits opportunities, which reduces productivity, and ultimately lowers "living standards for all of us in the long term."

Altman, an adjunct professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and author of four books, says wealth inequality in the U.S. has been rising steadily for the past 20 years.

"It's at a crazy high level that you only see in very poor countries, and it's starting to threaten growth," he says.


Bond Investor Gundlach Buys Stocks, Sees 'Kaboom' Ahead
It's mid-October, and Jeffrey Gundlach is giving a stump speech to a luncheon crowd of about 200 financial advisers and investors at Los Angeles's City Club. The renowned money manager's theme: the financial catastrophe on the horizon.

He recommends buying hard assets: Gemstones, art and commercial real estate are high on his list. And DoubleLine has been buying the stocks of Chinese companies, U.S. natural gas producers and gold-mining firms because it considers them to be bargains.

"I'm waiting for something to go kaboom," Gundlach says in his office a week before the L.A. speech. "If phase three takes two years, it's worth waiting for. The markets don't have lots of opportunity now."

"The only reason asset prices are up is because of all the liquidity in the system," says Luz Padilla, manager of the $707 million DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund. "Our concern is that it can turn very quickly."


Republicans Have Lost the Tax Fight: Politico’s White
A major story in Friday's New York Times confirmed something that most Americans understand, which is that today's tax rates are low compared with tax rates in the early 1980s.

They're also low when you compare the United States to other developed countries.

And they're low when you include state and local taxes, which the New York Times study did.

The reality of this, of course, hasn't stopped a lot of Americans from complaining that taxes are way too high and, therefore, that government spending must be cut.

Importantly, the tax increases being contemplated still won't make the U.S. a high-tax country relative to many other developed countries. That's something that any critic of tax increases needs to keep in mind.


Politico’s Ben White: Get Ready for a Market Rally Because a Fiscal Cliff Deal Is Coming
President Obama presented his opening offer for fiscal cliff negotiations on Thursday. The offer calls for $1.6 trillion in tax increases, $50 billion in infrastructure spending, home mortgage refinancing and the power to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling. Republicans have yet to place a counteroffer but they have said they will accept $800 billion in tax increases -- a far cry from Obama's proposal.

"We'll probably have a few more freak out declines before the actual deal is signed," he notes. "But when a deal is ultimately made, there will be a serious December rally based on relief that...we're going into next year with an economy that can grow without the fear of all of this austerity."

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

豔星葉玉卿息影16年後複出 加盟邵氏賀歲片 (原載《蘋果日報》)


中新網11月27日電 據台灣《蘋果日報》消息,已息影16年、現年45歲的香港性感女神葉玉卿,日前跟好友吳君如開玩笑說會複出拍戲,沒想到她真的已答應接拍賀歲電影《我愛HK2013恭喜發財》,與譚詠麟飾演一對夫妻,力挺該片監製曾誌偉及導演鍾樹佳,據悉,葉玉卿會趁每年12月一家大小回香港探親時開工,可以同時兼顧3名子女。

對葉玉卿複出拍戲,《我愛》導演鍾樹佳昨接受電訪坦承:“她口頭上已經答應,我派好多人去談,她人很好,看到前陣子新聞葉玉卿想出來拍戲,我和工作人員開會說不如找她,沒想到她OK。”問葉玉卿所演角色,鍾樹佳表示她演譚詠麟老婆,但她何時開工,還不知道。

葉玉卿1985年參加亞洲小姐奪季軍出道,1991年一口氣拍下《情不自禁》、《我為卿狂》和《卿本佳人》3套三級片,片中她3點盡露,奠定性感女神地位。

1993年她先後拍攝《天台的月光》、《玫瑰玫瑰我愛你》和《愛在黑社會的日子》,成功脫離三級女星行列,之後還出唱片,人氣高漲,她憑《天台的月光》獲入圍香港電影金像獎及台灣金馬獎最佳女主角,可惜最後沒有封后。

1996年她嫁給紐約經營連鎖超市的富商胡兆明,之後便息影移居紐約,協助丈夫經營生意,她先後為老公生下3名子女,前年全家展開亞洲度假之旅,當時他們也乘坐私人專機到台,派頭十足。

Monday, November 26, 2012

Sunday, November 25, 2012

肯德基原料雞 吃抗生素45天速成 (原載《明報》)

【明報專訊】聲稱為內地肯德基、麥當勞提供雞肉的山西粟海集團,被指用大量的工業鹽、氯化膽鹼原料配成飼料餵雞,工人說,飼料內加入了對人體有害的添加劑。集團回應指給雞吃抗生素,「就像人病了要吃藥一樣,並非不可接受」。肯德基則稱粟海僅佔其雞肉採購量1%左右,將加強檢驗並根據調查情况作相應處理,麥當勞則稱粟海非其供應商。

中國經濟網報道,山西粟海集團近日向農民推廣養雞致富,聲稱從雛雞到成品雞只需要45天。推廣人員稱,農戶養的雞由公司統一配料、供藥和回收,最後進入麥當勞、肯德基和一些大型超市,一年可以養5、6批,每隻雞可賺2到3元人民幣。

肯德基﹕只佔採購量1%
粟海集團在山西萬榮、平陸等多地都有簽約養殖基地,所有養殖場都由集團提供飼料。據養殖人員稱,飼料有3種,前10天吃一號飼料,是增加營養的;然後吃2號料,是長骨骼的;最後15天吃3號料,是長肉的,一天能長2到3両。

粟海飼料廠佔地10餘畝,離遠就能聞到令人反胃的氣味。車間內有大量的工業鹽、氯化膽鹼原料,工人們不時把粉末狀原料倒入機器中加工。據工人解釋說,「這些飼料配了藥,有添加劑,具體是什麽不知道,但對人體肯定有害,周邊的蒼蠅都毒死了,年輕人都不敢在這裏幹活。」

為保證飼料質量,該公司還有專門的配藥車間。車間內有很多瓶罐貼有各種化學名稱,既有重金屬的硝酸銀,也有滅菌的藥劑。配藥員將藥配好後,交給工人加入不同型號飼料中。

「飼料邊的蒼蠅都毒死了」
簽約養殖農戶稱,按要求,一棚養5000隻雞,密度大很易生病,解決方法就是不斷餵藥,提高雞的抗病能力。因生長周期僅有45天,雞不等發病就被集團運走,流入餐廳。但粟海集團不准養殖戶私自從外面購藥。

對於雞隻驚人的生長速度,粟海回應稱,與激素無關,而是雞種經過精心選育,把飼料轉化為肉的能力實現了「鳥槍換炮」的飛躍。而工業鹽是軟化水質的,氯化膽鹼也是國家允許使用的營養性飼料添加劑。至於給雞吃抗生素,「就像人病了要吃藥一樣,並非不可接受。」強調對人體健康的影響小到「可以忽略」。

2012年11月22日 <香港電台> 講東講西-童年之老師

節目主持:劉天賜、鄧達智、夏真真、李健雄
video

video

Friday, November 23, 2012

End Of Market Selling

Equity stock market shot up on the last day of a holiday shortened trading week. It appears that now it can be claimed that market bottom has been reached. And market should rebound on an overall improved economy. Three weeks ago, it was observed that long term investors were taking profit as market seemed to have reached recent peak which was close to historic peak. It was reasonable for long term investors to increase the cash level for future bargains if market would collapse which many market participants would expect. Selling was constrained because there was no need for panic selling and liquidation was only for small portion of the complete portfolio. It was expected that the following week would see a rebound in market as sellers completed selling and majority of market participants were waiting on the sideline with cash. But actually market manipulators and day traders continued to drag down market on fear of fiscal cliff where wealthy investors continued to liquidate stocks on potential tax hike.

Finally, selling stopped last week as predicted but a week later. As mentioned, there is tremendous capital in the financial market and households are hoarding cash on saving. With symptoms of market support, bargain hunters begin to pick up shares for trading. There is increasing market participants that speculate market cycles and make a fortune on trading the low and high of market. Therefore trading volume slightly increases recently with more interest from institutional and individual investors. Nevertheless, overall confidence of market participants is still fragile in equity stocks. But the demand for higher yield investment assets are soaring as investors are flooded with cash and do not want the money eaten up by inflation.

Actual economic condition is better than many would expect. Individuals are seeing increase in saving and improvement in living standard. Corporations are performing well and have access to cheap financing. While the economy prospers, companies encounter wage inflation which would hurt profitability. Nevertheless, overall economy is on track to a slow recovery from the trough of financial meltdown. Technology is a driving force which on one hand increases productivity and on the other hand increases economic activities through production and sale of modern gadgets and information technology. Domestic economy in the United States is comparably better than other parts of the world. Europe is still under the threat of sovereign debt crisis and China economy encounters slowdown. Market manipulators and traders would still exploit market news to make profit from panic selling due to weak confidence in equity stocks. As mentioned many times in earlier posts, market trend is up in long run because of technology innovation as well as surplus capital to buoy market in short term.



Waiting For The Dow Industrials To Be Cut In Half: Thomas Kee
There's an old adage on Wall Street that tries to gauge sentiment by characterizing whether investors are more fearful of missing the bus or getting run over by the bus. For the past few weeks, the latter has prevailed, as investors truly fled the stock market at every possible chance to get out of the way of what has truly been a slow moving train wreck that's seen 8% cleaved off the benchmark S&P 500.

"People always want to jump in on the short side after the market has declined," says Tom Kee, President and CEO of Stock Traders Daily in the attached video.

His closing advice for the pessimistically inclined: "you have to do the opposite of the masses and never chase the market on the downside or chase it lower."


Why It's Best for US to Fall Off 'Fiscal Cliff'
While Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke forecasts 2013 will be a "very good year" for the world's largest economy if the "fiscal cliff" is avoided, one analyst argues a cliff-triggered recession is exactly what the U.S. needs.

The $600 billion in tax hikes and government spending cuts, set to take place in January 2013 if policymakers do not reach a compromise for avoiding them, are essential to debt reduction and the long-term balancing of the U.S. budget, Gambles said.

"If we extend the Bush tax cuts and carry on getting deeper and deeper in debt, believe me that's a lot uglier," he added.


Parched Earth Policy: Are We Running Out of Water?
As Americans gather around their Thanksgiving tables for an abundance of food, it will be a sharp contract to what some experts are calling a severe crisis - the scarcity of fresh water.

The scarcity, these analysts say, can no longer be avoided as the effects of a world water shortage will have life-threatening and global economic consequences.

A major reason for the water shortage is drought. Some 56 percent of the United States is experiencing drought conditions - the most extensive area of drought in the U.S. in 12 years of tracking. Other areas of the world, like the Korean peninsula, have endured the worst drought conditions in more than a century.

Adding to the water scarcity is an ever increasing world population - along with increased urbanization - and economic growth, all of which demand and consume larger and larger amounts of water. The United Nations has said that two thirds of the world will live in water-stressed countries by 2025.

"Our climate - whether you want to call it global warming or climate change - is different than it was 50 years ago," said William Moomaw, professor of international environmental policy at Tufts University.

"To have a hurricane like Sandy in October just shows you how the oceans are warming. The weather patterns are only going to change even more and get worse as time goes on." said Moomaw.

"We need to continue to develop desalination technologies that are not so energy intensive or polluting. We need to accelerate our wastewater recycling programs to allow for more reuse of water," said Petrovksy. "And we need to decide as a society whether green lawns and landscaping, golf courses, swimming pools and unnecessary agriculture (like tobacco and coffee) are worth the use of water."

Thursday, November 22, 2012

大石與巴士故事 (轉載)


又是一篇早期的網上文章:

有一對戀人乘坐一輛巴士進入山區,他們打算在某處下車,開開心心往郊遊去。

他們下車後,那巴士繼續向前駛……

巴士行駛途中,突然有一塊大石從山腰墜下,並將巴士壓得粉碎,司機連同所有乘客,無一生還。

這對戀人看到這件事後竟然說︰「如果我們都在那輛巴士就好了。」

奇怪!一般人都會說:「好彩,我們剛好下了車!……」

但他們卻說了不同於一般人的話,你認為他們為什麼會這樣說?

(備註: 網上文章是這樣問人的。)

先想想再往下找答案……
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.
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再想想吧!……
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.
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如果他們都留在車上沒有下車,那輛巴士將會因他們沒有下車,而趕在大石墜下前,安全地駛過出事地點。 (當然,早前的車站,只有他們倆人下車。)

這文章原意要告訴我們,在生活中,多嘗試以不同的角度來正面思考及多找機會去幫助他人,別再不知不覺中,只自私的為自己而活著。

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

香港反戰集會遊行 (轉載)

香 港 反 戰 集 會 遊 行

日期:2012年11月24日(星期六)
時間:下午二時正
集合地點:金鐘海富中心二期樓下(以色列駐港總領事館在701室)

不要戰爭,停止仇殺 No War, Stop Killing

程序:
2:00 pm 在以色列駐港總領事館樓下(近夏愨道)集會,呼籲停火(唱歌、口號、宣讀聲明、自由發言、遞信)。
2:30 pm 遊行美國香港總領事館(中環花園道26號)。
2:50 pm 於美國駐香港總領事館門前集會,呼籲美國促使以色列停火(唱歌、口號、宣讀聲明、遞信)。
3:10 pm 結束。

主辦團體:反戰爭求和平委員會(http://fungchiwood.com/notwar.htm)
聯絡人:馮智活(電郵: fungchiwood@priest.com、facebook: Fung Chi Wood)
合辦團體:路小教會、香港基督徒學會 (其他團體在聯絡中,請各團體加入)

(大會聲明在草擬中)
如有團體加入為合辦團體,請通知馮智活,謝謝!

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Saturday, November 17, 2012

第59屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車(2012)現場錄音-在線收聽

按此收聽

澳門賽車港車手高速入彎撞欄身亡 (來源: 香港成報)





香港「新車神」丘永材昨在東方彎撞欄後,救援人員趕至拯救。 (新華社)



澳門格蘭披治大賽車接連兩日發生車手死亡意外,繼日前葡籍電單車手卡尼拉撞欄死亡後,本港著名賽車手丘永材(英文名Phillip),昨在澳門電訊房車盃出席排位賽,賽車轉入文華東方彎一刻,疑車輛過快失控,估計以超過200公里的時速撞向圍欄,當下車身嚴重損毀,車內的丘亦承受莫大的撞擊力受傷。救護人員趕抵,戰衣已滿佈血漬的丘永材被救離車廂,送院搶救,可惜抵院不到30分鐘,因傷勢過重終告不治。澳門格蘭披治大賽車委員會對事件表示十分遺憾,而死者家人昨晚隨即抵澳善後,在賽會安排下進行路祭,各人傷心不已。記者林嘉諾報導

40歲的丘永材為香港著名賽車手,曾被稱為「新車神」,曾參加三屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車,在車壇界有一定實力。屬於香港陸方車隊的他,賽前一日更接受訪問,談論自己戰車。他昨駕31號雪佛蘭廠戰車,與數十名車手競逐澳門電訊房車盃排位賽,一時間風馳電掣,驚險萬分。

撞欄扭曲 剪車救人
事發昨午1時11分,丘正準備轉入文華東方彎,速度逾200公里之下疑失控,左邊車頭先撞向圍欄,車身即冒出大量白煙;撞欄後仍駛行一段路程始停下。直接衝擊力加上屬左軚,車輛在撞欄後一直貼著防撞欄滑行,車架完全扭曲,而車底亦冒出火光及黑煙,最後才停下來。

工作人員立即出示紅旗,通知各單位搶救,兩部置有急救醫療設備的搶救車即時趕到,拯救車也緊隨而至,由於當時撞擊力非常猛烈,救援人員圖先打開車門救出丘,但經過四五次嘗試也未能打開。搶救人員用電剪剪開賽車,數分鐘後,至昨午1時19分才將傷者抬出,再由救護車送往澳門仁伯爵綜合醫院搶救,至昨午1時24分到達醫院急症室,經過心肺復甦搶救後,丘於昨午1時51分不治。

丘的車隊領導和家人昨晚到達山頂醫院了解情況。當時身在丘後面目擊情況的隊友鄺海峰接受訪問指出,丘的房車當時應以高速超過200公里入彎,因該房車屬於左駄,撞向防撞欄後,令司機位置直接受衝擊。賽車評述員陳恩能表示,由於進入東方彎前後都是一段直路,不少車手都希望藉這個位置,縮短排位賽時間。

快速入彎 難度極大
而香港賽車學校創辦人冼浩明指出,東方彎是一個高速彎位,需入彎的車速很高,且只有一條行車線,難度亦同時增​​加,以前在該彎位亦發生過類似意外。他表示,丘永材應有能力應付這個彎位,估計導致意外的原因和天氣有關。對於車手有否意外賠償,他說一般車手在參賽前都會簽「生死狀」,故應沒有賠償。

澳門格蘭披治大賽車委員會對丘永材撞車事件表示遺憾,並對其家人致以深切慰問。他們並表示澳門特區政府會為運送丘永材遺體返港等事宜、費用提供全力協助。澳門格蘭披治大賽車委員會協調員安棟樑表示,不認為賽道出現問題。對於連續兩天發生車手比賽時身亡事件,大會重申賽道符合安全標準,車手裝備亦符合國際汽聯準則。

Friday, November 16, 2012

Fear Of Tax Hike Causes More Selling

Equity stock market extends the fall from previous week. The fear of fiscal cliff is so widely spread that some wealthy investors are afraid of tax hike for their properties. As a consequence, there is a wave of disposal of equity stocks for cash or equivalent among wealthy investors in which a large proportion is long term investor.

In previous post, it is anticipated that selling would stop after day traders sold out the holdings. But the relay of selling from wealthy investors extends market drop in this week. It appears that the second wave of selling has finished. But market may come up with another selling event. There are plenty of possible news that can drive market lower, such as earnings miss, European debt crisis, US rating downgrade, etc. Therefore although the room for further market drop is not much, there is still uncertainty whether market will decline for the third week.

As mentioned in earlier post, long term investors are most likely the dominant sellers in coming sell-off events. Institutional and individual investors, besides very rich households, are waiting for market bottom. There is symptom that smart investors are beginning to accumulate shares. Market may rebound strongly when selling from wealthy investors ends and cash on the sideline begins to enter market. Nevertheless, market participants should be aware of news that can drive long term investors to dump stocks again.



Why Investors Are Dumping Dividend Stocks
The fear of higher taxes has put a chill on dividend-paying stocks, in what some analysts say could be an overreaction to the "fiscal cliff."

The Bush-era tax cuts on dividends and capital gains, to 15 percent, are in the cross hairs, as congressional leaders and President Barack Obama this week start work on reshaping the tax and spending components of the so-called fiscal cliff.

"If an investor wants yield, and they also want an investment vehicle linked to growth, then dividend stocks would still seem to be a good place to be," said John Stoltzfus, chief market strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management. "In an environment where a market continues to be fairly prone to move from 'risk on' to 'risk off,' it's nice to have an investment to pay you while you wait."

Why Muni Bonds Are Suddenly So Popular
Investors are barreling into municipal bonds, driving yields to record lows and hoping for a safe hiding place at a time when taxes are almost certain to rise.

The charge by investors into the tax-free securities has been creating a surge in demand that is not quite being met by supply and is causing some to question whether the muni bond market could be heading for a bubble.

One trader described the muni market as being at a "high-water mark" for momentum, where this new hunt for tax free investments coincided with typical year-end buying, though some of the insurers and hedge funds appear to be less active. "Mutual funds are getting a lot of money in. That positive cash flow needs to be spent, so I don't believe we're creating a bubble. This isn't speculative money. It's real money chasing after it," he said.

Condon also sees no sign of a bubble, but he is concerned that investors at some point will find themselves overly invested in bonds in general. The ratio of the 10-year triple-A-rated muni Tuesday was 97 percent, meaning that security was paying 97 percent of the equivalent Treasury, well above the long-term average in the low to mid 80s.

U.S. credit rating could again take hit in 2013
In 2011, the United States emerged from a damaging budget battle with a downgrade of its pristine triple-A rating for the first time in history. In 2013, it could be dealt even a bigger blow.

Should that happen, it could have a detrimental effect on the country's cost of borrowing and could also shift some investment away from the United States, though the country's big markets and attractiveness as a safe haven are likely to limit those effects.

When S&P cut the United States last year, markets reacted badly. The benchmark S&P 500 index  slumped the Monday following, falling 6.7 percent to an 11-month low.

Paradoxically, U.S. Treasury yields plunged as spooked investors stampeded to safe havens. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 2.32 percent on August 8 from 2.56 percent on August 5 - and is now around 1.6 percent.

That same knee-jerk response could be repeated.

"Investors need to hold billions and billions of dollars," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. "Where else are they going to go? Noise out of a rating agency is not going to change that."

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

每秒運算17.6億次 超腦「泰坦」最強 (原載《星島日報》)

【星島日報報道】美國能源部旗下橡樹嶺國家實驗室的超級電腦「泰坦」(Titan),以每秒十七點五九千萬億次的運算速度,登上超級電腦排行榜「TOP500」榜首,成為全球最快的超級電腦。

「泰坦」佔地面積與標準籃球場相若,消耗的電力足以供應一個小城鎮,它擁有五十六萬多個處理器,今後將用於氣候變化、可再生能源以及核能研究的模擬計算。

「TOP500」是全球最權威的超級電腦排行榜,由一九九三年起每年兩次公布全球最快五百部超級電腦的排名。曾在二○一○年排名第一的中國「天河-1A」今次已跌落第八位。

Monday, November 12, 2012

網上騙案大幅上升 (原載《星島日報》)

警方表示,互聯網騙案大幅上升,尤其是利用電郵騙案和網上拍賣的案件。

警方指出,今年首9個月,共接獲2100宗科技罪案舉報,當中超過1400宗屬於網上騙案,網上騙案較去年同期上升近2倍,涉及的金額更增加4倍。其中網上拍賣的騙案有500多宗,涉及金額405萬元。除買家付款後收不到貨品,亦有一些賣家出售貨物後收不到錢。

另外,利用電郵的騙案亦大幅上升,很多時騙徒收集受害人資料後,進一步行騙。商業罪案調查科總督察孔慶勳表示,在網上騙案中,較嚴重的案件包括電郵騙案,有受害公司被騙將款額匯到海外戶口。

Friday, November 9, 2012

Fiscal Cliff' Fear Sinks Stocks

Equity stock market sank for two days after election day. After the drop, market sentiment is still low as fear of fiscal cliff remains a dominant factor for market direction.

Traders and market manipulators pushed market down after president election. Despite a significant drop in broad market index, market participants are not selling in panic. Institutional and individual investors are especially calm while day traders are selling in a herd. Although market has dropped below the level when long term investors took profit before the Federal Reserve announcement of open-ended MBS buying program, there is no symptom that long term investors are taking profit again on market fear.

Since institutional and individual investors are waiting for market bottom and long term investors are still patient on market, day traders will finish selling soon. There is much speculation on market swing. The outlook for market is strong because of ample liquidity and low interest rate environment. market participants can make use of this opportunity to strengthen the portfolio for short term trading or long term appreciation.



Awaiting the End of Uncertainty? Don’t Hold Your Breath
A well worn adage about Wall Street suggests that markets can adjust to almost any circumstance, as long there are no surprises. "We don't like the idea of higher taxes," investors often say, "but we can deal with it (within reason) as long as you leave things alone after that."

Not only will any changes in the balance of power in the House and/or Senate have a major impact on the tone and outcome of lame duck session negotiations to address the fiscal cliff, but would also completely alter the agenda of the first two years for the next President.

Add in another election in Greece on Wednesday that could rekindle fears of a Eurozone breakup, as well as the start of China's 18th National Party Congress on Thursday, and it's conceivable that worries from beyond our borders could begin to intrude upon investors again too.

So as much as tomorrow's voting is set to mark the end of some uncertainty, if you're expecting markets to suddenly move into the HOV-lane and burst higher, you're sure to be disappointed. Politics are clearly a factor, but ultimately, it's earnings that matter most to Wall Street.


Beware of 'Trap Door' for Stocks: Pro
Investors should brace themselves for a sharp drop in stocks following a rally that started in June and moved towards a peak following the announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States, David Murrin, CEO at Emergent Asset Management said on Tuesday.

"There seems to be an assumption that because of QE3 and a program from the ECB that there is no downside risk to equity markets. If you look at leading stocks and the way that the S&P and the Dow have been trading there is the risk of a trap door to the downside and that's something people have ignored." Murrin added that he was skeptical about U.S. equities' ability to continue rising.

"I have a downside bias and in my opinion you should sell corrections to the upside. I think the downside could be very aggressive. People are very biased to the upside and have been complacent when it comes to Western stock markets," Murrin said.


Obama win has U.S. investors staring at fiscal cliff
U.S. investors will hit trading floors this morning with the same president and the same problems in gridlocked Washington. First up: a looming budget crisis that could send the U.S. economy reeling.

Steven Englander, Citigroup's head of G10 foreign exchange strategy, said markets could panic toward yearend if it looks as though no deal is imminent to avoid the fiscal cliff.

If that happens, investors will think twice about lending the U.S. government money at low interest rates, which would strain the economy, widen the deficit and hurt the dollar. It also raises the possibility that major credit-rating agencies will cut the U.S. debt rating.



Why US May Be Headed for Another Recession
All the problems investors face-from a fiscal meltdown to the various economic woes around the world-add up to one daunting prospect: Another possible recession just over the horizon.

As the financial world puts Tuesday's presidential election behind it, the light in the tunnel could be an economic freight train.

In the week prior to the election, investors pulled cash both from stocks and bonds. Equity-based mutual funds lost $1.4 billion while bond funds saw outflows of $895 million, according to Lipper fund flow data.

Continued accommodation from Federal Reserve monetary policy has been the antidote to fear of risk.

This week's market drop "does reflect real worry about the fiscal cliff" but "we view this as anxiety as an opportunity to buy, not sell," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group.

"We have a situation where the range of outcomes is extremely wide," he said. "What that tells me from an investing standpoint is that we have to be fully diversified right now. I would not be taking concentrated bets across any asset class."

For Baum, the most important thing for investors to watch is not letting their emotions overcome their choices. He thinks Washington will come to a resolution that, at some point, will placate markets.

"You can't keep kicking things down the road," he said. "Once you get more certainty you get markets that will react and act more like markets, as opposed to emotional roller coasters."

2012年11月08日 <香港電台> 講東講西-童年之童工

節目主持:劉天賜、鄧達智、黃子群、陳曼芝
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2012年11月01日 <民間電台>政府總部現場廣播節目

打橫嚟講(長毛,死人的士佬)
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人力監察院
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Friday, November 2, 2012

神秘公司突然解散 (轉載)


位于深圳的中国卓越置业集团的中国总公司

香港高層建築群——太古廣場(PACIFIC PLACE)坐落於香港太平山登山口附近的黃金地段,從那裡可以一覽香港“百萬美元的夜景”。那家公司的所在地就位於此。

“EXELLENCE EFFORT不動產開發”的登記地址是這棟大廈25層的一個房間,這棟大廈裡包括酒店和購物中心。從25層的房間窗口放眼望去一定會看到遠處綿延的群山。

記者之所以想要對該公司進行調查,是因為這家公司高層領導中有一人名叫鄧家貴,他的妻子齊橋橋正是習近平的姐姐。

習近平的家族人脈都涉及哪些商業領域呢?
記者查看了註冊在香港特別行政區政府的公司登記簿,這家公司的母公司與它的名稱完全相同,也叫“EXELLENCE EFFORT不動產開發”。註冊地是英屬維京群島,這里以“避稅天堂”而聞名。公司的50%股份為鄧家貴所持有,剩下50%的股份歸2名中國企業家,並且這兩人是親兄弟。

記者進一步調查後得知,這家母公司的母公司名叫“卓越置業集團”(總公司註冊在英屬開曼群島),並且這兄弟二人也是“卓越置業集團”的高層。

1996年,兄弟倆人中的弟弟在廣東省深圳市創業,公司在中國各地開發高級住宅區和商業設施。這是一家迅速成長的企業,曾經躋身“中國房地產企業100強”。

後來,記者又查看了保存在香港證券交易所的、2009年編成的“卓越置業集團”投資者用資料,共計595頁。這份資料的內容顯示,該公司從2004年起參與了深圳市中央商務區(CBD)的開發,並擁有7棟大樓。 2009年上半年的純利潤超過3億8千萬元。

為了採訪,記者來到了位於深圳市的“卓越置業集團”中國總部。

但是,哥哥​​以“正在治療眼睛”,弟弟以“正在開會,一直很忙”為由,拒絕了記者的見面請求。關於鄧家貴,該公司公關部負責人說,“連名字都沒聽說過。”

然而,不可思議的事情發生了。 7月20日,香港的“EXELLENCE EFFORT不動產開發”公司突然解散了,這正是記者來到深圳“卓越置業集團”中國總部採訪的兩天以後。

(未完待續)

Market Oscillates On Traders Speculation

Market ends flat after a short week with swings. The hurricane storm causes the stock exchange to close for two consecutive days. Market oscillates on natural disaster and economic data. At the end of week it remains at recent bottom level.

While it is approaching to year end, market participants show more interest in trading activities. Besides the availability of ample cash for investment, market participants are well behind broad market performance in investment return and are trying to shrink the gap.

As mentioned in earlier posts, institutional and individual investors are reluctant to sell any more due to low exposure in equity stocks and prior painful experience in panic selling. Day traders are cautious that market may not be able to support current level and are trying to find excuse to drag down market. Market manipulators are waiting for opportunity in panic selling. After recent rally on Federal Reserve open-ended MBS buying program, market has slipped back to the level where long term investors take profit on part of the stock holdings. The next move of long term investors will be indicative. If confidence in equity stock market is weakened by market sentiment, further profit taking may drag down market and heavy selling from day traders would follow. Market manipulators have been waiting for this opportunity. On the other hand, if long term investors decide to hold on with stocks, surplus capital in the financial system would create buying speculation.




The Top 3 Investments Among the Wealthy
When you ask the wealthy "Are you better off than four years ago?" the answer is most certainly "Yes!"

The latest PNC Wealth and Values Survey Investor Outlook shows that the majority of affluent investors have seen their individual net worth increase by more than 20 percent over the past five years.

They're especially bullish on stocks and real-estate. The study also shows that the affluent have trimmed their free-spending ways since the crisis. Fully 88 percent say that it's "more important than ever to live within my means."

Hong Kong named top financial center for second year
Hong Kong was named the world's top financial center for the second year running by the World Economic Forum (WEF), thanks to the strength of its business environment, infrastructure and a favorable tax regime.

The WEF's annual Financial Development Report considered a wide range of factors and underscored the rise of Asian trading centers and the influence of China as the world's second-largest economy.

The United States, Britain, Singapore, Australia and Canada followed Hong Kong in the 2012 rankings.

Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Sweden made up the remainder of the top 10 financial centers.

The report said that policymakers face a "monumental" task to restore confidence in markets as waning trust in the overall system holds back investment.

2012年10月31日 <民間電台>政府總部現場廣播節目

八十後討論社運(陳景輝)
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2012年11月01日 <香港電台> 講東講西-童年之鄉下村童

節目主持:劉天賜、鄧達智、陳銳強、李健雄
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2012年10月18日 <香港電台> 講東講西-童年

節目主持:劉天賜、鄧達智、黃惠康、何福強
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