香港數碼廣播電台(DBC)停播兩月，DBC創辦人鄭經翰、股東夏佳理和何國輝，將會把DBC四成股份，出售予DBC主席兼第二大董事黃楚標，本月31日將會簽署買賣合約。鄭經翰早前提出價高者得方案讓股東互相競投，兩人表示未能負擔黃楚標提出的競投價錢，最後雙方達成共識，有指回購方案涉兩億元。鄭經翰對於出售DBC感可惜，他表示將會把股份所得回報投資於新的網上電台。
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Friday, December 21, 2012
Market Slumps On Fiscal Cliff Gridlock
Market is shaken by worry on fiscal cliff negotiation. Traders and market manipulators trade on the news while market participants are very cautious. However, investors are no longer running in animal spirit as during the US rating downgrade in last year. With load of cash on the sideline and a thin portfolio in equity stocks, investors are watching the progress and waiting for opportunities. Speculators and traders dominate the trades before the vacation.
While households are staying away from equity stock market and finding safe haven in treasuries and bonds as well as cash and gold, four years after the financial meltdown, investors come back to the peak of wealth before the crisis. Wealthy investors did not dump the stocks when market was selling in panic because decline in stock price would not affect living standard at all. On the other hand, when market began to recover, stocks were accumulated with the stable income. Therefore wealthy investors have already surpassed the peak wealth in last year. Smart investors also have appreciable gain after years of rising stock market. Even the pessimistic individual investors are seeing a growth of wealth to near the peak before the crisis with savings from the last few years and appreciation in core equity stock assets.
The pullback on concern of fiscal cliff would be an opportunity for market participants to replenish the portfolio at a relatively low cost. However, market participants are afraid that market manipulators may use other insider news to drag down market further. Therefore many investors prefer to wait until fiscal cliff and debt ceiling negotiation becomes clear. But as the financial market is flooded with cash and investors are turning less pessimistic in long term outlook, market is supported by demand from yield hungry investors. Also, increasing number of market participants are gaining confidence in market and take advantage on market pullback to pick up bargains and take profit when market rallies. Therefore market collapse is very unlikely and investors waiting on the sideline realized that the bottom of each pullback are higher than the previous trough. Nevertheless many investors keep on waiting on hope that a major correction may appear some day. But it is believed that market would surpass historic peak before any major pullback at which time broad market index may even be higher than current level.
In 2013, Stocks Set for Fifth Straight Year of Gains: Paulsen
Since Breakout started, Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management has come on the show regularly and expressed a bullish view. Despite weak earnings, fiscal cliffs, debt-ceiling debates and downgrades, he's been right. Now, he's doubling down on his bullish view for 2013.
"Next year will probably be the fifth consecutive year of positive equity returns," Paulsen says in the attached video. He's looking for double-digit returns without the terrifying dips and rips we've seen since the bullish streak started in 2009. Ironically, he thinks gains in 2013 may be the hardest to justify from a fundamental perspective.
It's not the earnings that are going to drive us, he says. Earnings growth and margins have been tailing off hard over the back half of 2012, and Paulsen is looking for more of the same in the months ahead. What will move the markets higher in Paulsen's estimation is a willingness of investors to pay up for each dollar of earnings in the S&P 500.
Why the confidence boost? Pointing to the last four years, Paulsen says investors have been assuming the end of the recovery every year. This "cultural mindset" been based on any number of forces, both real and imagined.
Entering 2013, we'll have some sort of resolution on the fiscal cliff, for better or worse, Europe steadying and China's new leadership team promising stability. Nothing has particularly improved, but the worst has been avoided. Eventually, investors are going to notice and start shifting assets into stocks and out of bonds.
Stocks Are the Only Asset Class to Own: Josh Brown
Equities are attracting investors again after November’s sell-off for one simple reason: "There aren’t any alternatives to stocks," says Josh Brown, vice president of investments at Fusion Analytics and author of the popular “The Reformed Broker."
Brown prefers bond-like-equities any day over U.S. government debt and believes efforts by central bankers around the globe will keep buoying markets for the foreseeable future. As for market leadership, Brown says Apple’s days are over as investors increasingly rotate to financials, one of the best-performing industry groups in the S&P 500 this year.
But he's no raging bull. Higher stock prices are obscuring weak market fundamentals, Brown argues, and he points to disappointing earnings reports from U.S. multinationals.
The New 'Goldilocks' Stock Thesis
Stocks are at multimonth highs. The "haven" plays -- gold and bonds -- are being sold.
The "fiscal cliff" does not seem quite so ominous. The euro is at an eight-month high; German stocks are at new highs.
The markets seem to be reallocating resources: from Treasurys to stocks ... from gold to euros.
What is this new Goldilocks thesis? The bulls argue: 1) we're moving to greater clarity on taxes; 2) Europe is showing determination to stay together; 3) China is bottoming; and 4) corporate balance sheets are in good shape.
Bears are not so amused by these arguments. It's all a fantasy, they say: 1) We will get growth with rising taxes and lower spending; 2) we will have unlimited stimulus that will not cause inflation; 3) we will shift from bonds into stocks without a bond crash; and 4) the government will easily be able to afford the higher interest rate expenses they will soon have to pay.
Why the Nation's Largest Pension Fund Manager Is Optimistic
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is essentially flat over the last 12 years. Median household net worth is down. Inflation-adjusted earnings for most Americans are below where they were a decade ago.
It's ugly.
Yet Joseph Dear, chief investment officer of CalPERS, the nation's largest pension fund with nearly a quarter-trillion dollars under management, is optimistic. He thinks we're turning a corner -- housing is coming back, corporations are competitive, and the investment world is too pessimistic.
Now why do I say that? I think housing is likely to see an upturn next year, and that's going to drive a lot of employment and consumption. I think if you look at U.S. companies, they're incredibly competitive. They're really good values in terms of the U.S., of the global economy. I think Europe is on the way to solving the problem, and I was really very skeptical about Europe for most of 2012, whether the Union would be able to make the difficult decisions they've had to make. And I think the leadership transition in China means they've got more levers to pull in terms of keeping Chinese growth up. So on that picture, better than what we've seen. Not like what we saw before the crash, before the financial crisis, but reason to be more optimistic. And that should just make life a little bit better or all investors.
Well, I think there's growing optimism. I'm not on the leading edge of this, but I still think the mindset is having been bruised so badly with losses and terrorized by fear of a real meltdown in the global economy that pessimism reigns.
There's a great quote by the economist A. C. Pigou that said that the error of optimism in dying gives birth to a new era: error of pessimism, which is born not a baby, but a giant. And we are still working through that pessimism phase.
Cash Is King: Printing of $100 Bills Soars
A good detective always looks for a motive when beginning an investigation. And so, when Nick Colas discovered that the number of $100 bills printed last year suddenly spiked, the chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group decided to figure out what was going on.
Part of this new demand, he says, comes from the classic nefarious sources: drug dealers, arms smugglers, tax cheats and bribes. But some of it is also due to hoarding or the fact that more people than ever, oddly enough, are losing faith in government and/or the economy and are shunning the surety of traditional investments. It's a phenomenon that's led to a huge increase in demand for gold and other precious metals, but also for — you guessed it — $100 bills.
And it's not just here at home. While it's hard to quantify the exact amount, it is believed that the majority of $100 bills are probably being held overseas, since they are globally recognized, widely accepted and the easiest way to store wealth.
But alas, there is a silver lining to be found within all of this dollar debasement that at least one Wall Street veteran points to. "It proves beyond a doubt that the dollar is still the reserve currency of choice around the world," Colas concludes. "It may not [always] be from the most savory part of the economy, but it does signal that there's still a lot of faith in the dollar."
Majority of Rich Want Themselves Taxed More: Poll
House Republicans are opposing tax increases on anyone - whether it's Americans making $250,000 or $1 million or more a year.
But a new survey shows that they might be opposing the very people they claim to protect.
"There is an absolute willingness for the vast majority of the One Percent to take a tax increase," said Jim Taylor, Vice Chairman Harrison Group. "What the Republicans think is not necessarily what their constituents think."
Nearly three quarters of them are "extremely or very concerned about their taxes going up." Other recent surveys show that the wealthy support higher taxes as part of a balanced solution to the government debt problem that includes spending cuts.
Still, a majority support for tax increases on themselves, presumably for the sake of the broader economy. Taylor said that for many of the wealthy, the possible reduction in asset values stemming from problems in Washington far outweigh the potential reduction in their income.
While households are staying away from equity stock market and finding safe haven in treasuries and bonds as well as cash and gold, four years after the financial meltdown, investors come back to the peak of wealth before the crisis. Wealthy investors did not dump the stocks when market was selling in panic because decline in stock price would not affect living standard at all. On the other hand, when market began to recover, stocks were accumulated with the stable income. Therefore wealthy investors have already surpassed the peak wealth in last year. Smart investors also have appreciable gain after years of rising stock market. Even the pessimistic individual investors are seeing a growth of wealth to near the peak before the crisis with savings from the last few years and appreciation in core equity stock assets.
The pullback on concern of fiscal cliff would be an opportunity for market participants to replenish the portfolio at a relatively low cost. However, market participants are afraid that market manipulators may use other insider news to drag down market further. Therefore many investors prefer to wait until fiscal cliff and debt ceiling negotiation becomes clear. But as the financial market is flooded with cash and investors are turning less pessimistic in long term outlook, market is supported by demand from yield hungry investors. Also, increasing number of market participants are gaining confidence in market and take advantage on market pullback to pick up bargains and take profit when market rallies. Therefore market collapse is very unlikely and investors waiting on the sideline realized that the bottom of each pullback are higher than the previous trough. Nevertheless many investors keep on waiting on hope that a major correction may appear some day. But it is believed that market would surpass historic peak before any major pullback at which time broad market index may even be higher than current level.
In 2013, Stocks Set for Fifth Straight Year of Gains: Paulsen
Since Breakout started, Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management has come on the show regularly and expressed a bullish view. Despite weak earnings, fiscal cliffs, debt-ceiling debates and downgrades, he's been right. Now, he's doubling down on his bullish view for 2013.
"Next year will probably be the fifth consecutive year of positive equity returns," Paulsen says in the attached video. He's looking for double-digit returns without the terrifying dips and rips we've seen since the bullish streak started in 2009. Ironically, he thinks gains in 2013 may be the hardest to justify from a fundamental perspective.
It's not the earnings that are going to drive us, he says. Earnings growth and margins have been tailing off hard over the back half of 2012, and Paulsen is looking for more of the same in the months ahead. What will move the markets higher in Paulsen's estimation is a willingness of investors to pay up for each dollar of earnings in the S&P 500.
Why the confidence boost? Pointing to the last four years, Paulsen says investors have been assuming the end of the recovery every year. This "cultural mindset" been based on any number of forces, both real and imagined.
Entering 2013, we'll have some sort of resolution on the fiscal cliff, for better or worse, Europe steadying and China's new leadership team promising stability. Nothing has particularly improved, but the worst has been avoided. Eventually, investors are going to notice and start shifting assets into stocks and out of bonds.
Stocks Are the Only Asset Class to Own: Josh Brown
Equities are attracting investors again after November’s sell-off for one simple reason: "There aren’t any alternatives to stocks," says Josh Brown, vice president of investments at Fusion Analytics and author of the popular “The Reformed Broker."
Brown prefers bond-like-equities any day over U.S. government debt and believes efforts by central bankers around the globe will keep buoying markets for the foreseeable future. As for market leadership, Brown says Apple’s days are over as investors increasingly rotate to financials, one of the best-performing industry groups in the S&P 500 this year.
But he's no raging bull. Higher stock prices are obscuring weak market fundamentals, Brown argues, and he points to disappointing earnings reports from U.S. multinationals.
The New 'Goldilocks' Stock Thesis
Stocks are at multimonth highs. The "haven" plays -- gold and bonds -- are being sold.
The "fiscal cliff" does not seem quite so ominous. The euro is at an eight-month high; German stocks are at new highs.
The markets seem to be reallocating resources: from Treasurys to stocks ... from gold to euros.
What is this new Goldilocks thesis? The bulls argue: 1) we're moving to greater clarity on taxes; 2) Europe is showing determination to stay together; 3) China is bottoming; and 4) corporate balance sheets are in good shape.
Bears are not so amused by these arguments. It's all a fantasy, they say: 1) We will get growth with rising taxes and lower spending; 2) we will have unlimited stimulus that will not cause inflation; 3) we will shift from bonds into stocks without a bond crash; and 4) the government will easily be able to afford the higher interest rate expenses they will soon have to pay.
Why the Nation's Largest Pension Fund Manager Is Optimistic
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is essentially flat over the last 12 years. Median household net worth is down. Inflation-adjusted earnings for most Americans are below where they were a decade ago.
It's ugly.
Yet Joseph Dear, chief investment officer of CalPERS, the nation's largest pension fund with nearly a quarter-trillion dollars under management, is optimistic. He thinks we're turning a corner -- housing is coming back, corporations are competitive, and the investment world is too pessimistic.
Now why do I say that? I think housing is likely to see an upturn next year, and that's going to drive a lot of employment and consumption. I think if you look at U.S. companies, they're incredibly competitive. They're really good values in terms of the U.S., of the global economy. I think Europe is on the way to solving the problem, and I was really very skeptical about Europe for most of 2012, whether the Union would be able to make the difficult decisions they've had to make. And I think the leadership transition in China means they've got more levers to pull in terms of keeping Chinese growth up. So on that picture, better than what we've seen. Not like what we saw before the crash, before the financial crisis, but reason to be more optimistic. And that should just make life a little bit better or all investors.
Well, I think there's growing optimism. I'm not on the leading edge of this, but I still think the mindset is having been bruised so badly with losses and terrorized by fear of a real meltdown in the global economy that pessimism reigns.
There's a great quote by the economist A. C. Pigou that said that the error of optimism in dying gives birth to a new era: error of pessimism, which is born not a baby, but a giant. And we are still working through that pessimism phase.
Cash Is King: Printing of $100 Bills Soars
A good detective always looks for a motive when beginning an investigation. And so, when Nick Colas discovered that the number of $100 bills printed last year suddenly spiked, the chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group decided to figure out what was going on.
Part of this new demand, he says, comes from the classic nefarious sources: drug dealers, arms smugglers, tax cheats and bribes. But some of it is also due to hoarding or the fact that more people than ever, oddly enough, are losing faith in government and/or the economy and are shunning the surety of traditional investments. It's a phenomenon that's led to a huge increase in demand for gold and other precious metals, but also for — you guessed it — $100 bills.
And it's not just here at home. While it's hard to quantify the exact amount, it is believed that the majority of $100 bills are probably being held overseas, since they are globally recognized, widely accepted and the easiest way to store wealth.
But alas, there is a silver lining to be found within all of this dollar debasement that at least one Wall Street veteran points to. "It proves beyond a doubt that the dollar is still the reserve currency of choice around the world," Colas concludes. "It may not [always] be from the most savory part of the economy, but it does signal that there's still a lot of faith in the dollar."
Majority of Rich Want Themselves Taxed More: Poll
House Republicans are opposing tax increases on anyone - whether it's Americans making $250,000 or $1 million or more a year.
But a new survey shows that they might be opposing the very people they claim to protect.
"There is an absolute willingness for the vast majority of the One Percent to take a tax increase," said Jim Taylor, Vice Chairman Harrison Group. "What the Republicans think is not necessarily what their constituents think."
Nearly three quarters of them are "extremely or very concerned about their taxes going up." Other recent surveys show that the wealthy support higher taxes as part of a balanced solution to the government debt problem that includes spending cuts.
Still, a majority support for tax increases on themselves, presumably for the sake of the broader economy. Taylor said that for many of the wealthy, the possible reduction in asset values stemming from problems in Washington far outweigh the potential reduction in their income.
Monday, December 17, 2012
野豬現柴灣 中槍狂奔越東廊 (原載《明報》)
闖入柴灣公園的野豬長約1米、重約40公斤，雖被獸醫麻醉槍射中，但仍能越過東區走廊數條行車線，之後跳入草叢不知所終。（林智傑攝）
野豬與帶備盾牌的漁護署人員及警員在柴灣公園捉迷藏逾7小時，其間眾人靠欄稍息。（林智傑攝）
【明報專訊】柴灣昨晨發現1米長野豬蹤影，該隻頑皮野豬獨自在柴灣公園小睡，惹來晨運客報警，警方聯同漁護署人員帶備盾牌及網與野豬展開追捕戰，其間野豬雖被獸醫以麻醉槍擊中，惟仍能生猛地逃走，並走出公園對出一段東區走廊，飛越4條行車線，逃入草叢後失去蹤影。一眾警員及漁護署人員遭野豬折騰逾7小時，終收隊離開。
公園小睡 3麻醉槍兩射失
漁農自然護理署發言人表示，該隻野豬啡色約1米長、重40公斤，相信剛成年，該署獸醫追捕期間共向野豬射了3次麻醉槍，最後一槍擊中野豬，惟牠最後逃去。
愛護動物協會發言人說，野豬是群體生活動物，多與同伴聚居於人迹罕至、地勢較高的山林，估計該頭野豬於尋找食物期間與同伴失散，沿山坡走到柴灣公園，而野豬的獵物多於冬季冬眠，故野豬現時會較活躍四出覓食。
現場為柴灣附近順泰道柴灣公園，昨早8時許，有晨運客於覽瀑亭發現野豬蹤影，於是報警。6名警員及漁護署人員帶同盾牌、繩及網到場，惟野豬已逃到對開山坡，人員遂沿樓梯登上山坡尋找野豬蹤迹，未幾發現牠正伏地小睡。
追捕逾7小時 入草叢逃去
至下午12時許，兩名獸醫各帶同麻醉槍到場，當時野豬已睡醒，獸醫鎖定其位置後向牠開了兩槍麻醉槍，但均落空，野豬其後進出樹林間，跟獸醫捉迷藏，至下午約3時，野豬突然現身，獸醫看準機會再向牠開了一槍麻醉槍，雖成功擊中野豬，惟麻醉藥藥力似對野豬無效，野豬迅速沿山坡逃出公園，10多名警員及漁護署人員尾隨。
野豬走到公園山坡旁鐵網，越過兩條往柴灣方向的東區走廊行車線，再企圖跳上一個近4呎高分隔石壆，惟撞到石壆防撞欄後反彈倒地，野豬「屢敗屢戰」，第二次終跳上石壆，再奔往對面兩條行車線，走到柴灣港鐵站下草叢失去蹤影。至下午4時，警員及漁護署人員搜索無果，相信野豬已離開，遂收隊離場。
Friday, December 14, 2012
Market Wavers; Investors Wait
Equity stock market seesawed in the week amid investors concern on fiscal cliff. Since market participants have been adjusting the portfolio a few weeks ago when market focus begins to shift to fiscal cliff, there is not much selling from market participants lately although investors weight on the fear for several weeks.
Day traders continue to execute trades based on progress in fiscal cliff negotiation. Investors have prepared for market reaction to a final outcome and are now waiting. Therefore trading volume drops and market oscillates in a tight range.
Market will remain relatively calm until the issue on fiscal cliff becomes clear. Market participants remain low confidence in short term but turn positive in long term because of improving economic data. Also rise in household wealth, approaching the peak before financial crisis, also boosts investor confidence. As mentioned in earlier post, the wealthy elite already surpass the peak in last year due to surging stock market as well as personal income. Average households lag in the race in wealth because of low equity stock exposure and a slower rise in income earning. Equity stock market should be the last to surpass the peak due to low investor confidence.
China wealth inequality at globally rare levels
China’s Gini coefficient has reached a shockingly high level as its wealth gap grows, a recent academic report said, calling attention to the equality indicator that the government hasn’t tracked for years.
The Gini coefficient measures the wealth gap on a scale of 0 to 1. The higher the figure, the greater the inequality. A reading above 0.4 usually marks strong inequality.
China’s figure was globally rare, the report says. However, it added that it is natural for a fast-developing economy to score high.
S&P: U.S. Companies Underinvest by Billions
U.S. corporations cut an estimated $175 billion in investment from 2009-2011, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor's, in a move that boosted the cash reserves that have helped them through the financial crisis, but could eventually harm their competitiveness.
The heavy cost-cutting that took place meant corporate cash flows continued to grow during the period that investment was put off, leading to U.S. nonfinancial companies holding a record $1.26 trillion in cash balances as of June 2012.
As a whole, the companies rated by S&P only returned to prerecession levels of investment, relative to revenues, in the first half of 2012—a development the ratings agency said could be reversed in 2013 due to worries over the so-called fiscal cliff and the European debt crisis.
That would be a bad move, according to S&P. "Cash flow-positive companies have two choices: expand their business either through investments or acquisitions or return the cash to their shareholders," the report said. "We believe the option many companies have chosen in recent years, preserving the cash, can only be a short-term solution."
Higher Taxes Will Create Jobs and Cut the Deficit: David Cay Johnston
President Obama hit the road this week to build national support for increasing taxes on wealthy Americans. On Monday the president addressed autoworkers in Redford, Mich., outlining his budget proposal and explaining why higher tax rates were necessary at this critical juncture.
"Our economic success has never come from the top down," Obama said. "It comes from the middle out; it comes from the bottom up."
David Cay Johnston, Pulitzer prize-winning journalist and author of The Fine Print: How Big Companies Use "Plain English" to Rob You Blind, says higher taxes can actually create jobs, not kill them. In an interview with The Daily Ticker, he argues that additional revenue collected from higher taxes could be spent on infrastructure repairs and construction, a win-win situation for the nation and workers.
Johnston also supports higher taxes on the rich and says empirical evidence on the impact of low tax rates on the economy are overwhelmingly in favor of the president's proposal.
"Government revenues are down and total income for the bottom 90% of Americans has fallen back to 1966 levels," he says. Wealthy Americans are paying a larger share of their incomes in taxes "but their incomes have grown much more significantly so their share of income going toward taxes has fallen," Johnston says. "Of all the income gains in this entire country in 2010, 37 percent of it went to 15,600 households out of 156 million."
Taxes will likely rise for all Americans if lawmakers are truly serious about tackling the deficit, according to Johnston.
"If you're concerned about deficits, you need to bring in more money," he says. The economy may be too "delicate" to let the Bush tax cuts expire for lower income individuals right now Johnston concedes, but "as the economy gets stronger, there will need to be adjustments."
Goldman Sachs: Stocks Are the New Bonds
Central bank quantitative easing programs have left little value in the credit markets, so Investors should be looking for returns in European equities rather than bonds, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs told CNBC.
The global economic crisis might have caused investors to park their money into perceived safe-haven assets such as German bunds and U.S. Treasurys with near-zero yields, but Oppenheimer said on Thursday that investors would see higher dividends in European equities. According to him, the STOXX Europe 600 could deliver annual returns of more than 7 percent - despite stagnation in the euro area.
"So far, there has been a net absence of net flows going into the equity market, particularly in Europe,so equities have become almost an orphan asset class.But as more liquidity comes into the global economy through central bank actions and there is little value left in fixed-income markets, and even credit,equities will benefit by default," he said on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange".
"Next year, we do expect a recovery in the global economy...to which Europe's corporate sector is very well levered. It's that global recovery that allows margins to rise a little bit in the euro zone, gives some top-line growth and overall profit growth of around 9 percent."
Day traders continue to execute trades based on progress in fiscal cliff negotiation. Investors have prepared for market reaction to a final outcome and are now waiting. Therefore trading volume drops and market oscillates in a tight range.
Market will remain relatively calm until the issue on fiscal cliff becomes clear. Market participants remain low confidence in short term but turn positive in long term because of improving economic data. Also rise in household wealth, approaching the peak before financial crisis, also boosts investor confidence. As mentioned in earlier post, the wealthy elite already surpass the peak in last year due to surging stock market as well as personal income. Average households lag in the race in wealth because of low equity stock exposure and a slower rise in income earning. Equity stock market should be the last to surpass the peak due to low investor confidence.
China wealth inequality at globally rare levels
China’s Gini coefficient has reached a shockingly high level as its wealth gap grows, a recent academic report said, calling attention to the equality indicator that the government hasn’t tracked for years.
The Gini coefficient measures the wealth gap on a scale of 0 to 1. The higher the figure, the greater the inequality. A reading above 0.4 usually marks strong inequality.
China’s figure was globally rare, the report says. However, it added that it is natural for a fast-developing economy to score high.
S&P: U.S. Companies Underinvest by Billions
U.S. corporations cut an estimated $175 billion in investment from 2009-2011, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor's, in a move that boosted the cash reserves that have helped them through the financial crisis, but could eventually harm their competitiveness.
The heavy cost-cutting that took place meant corporate cash flows continued to grow during the period that investment was put off, leading to U.S. nonfinancial companies holding a record $1.26 trillion in cash balances as of June 2012.
As a whole, the companies rated by S&P only returned to prerecession levels of investment, relative to revenues, in the first half of 2012—a development the ratings agency said could be reversed in 2013 due to worries over the so-called fiscal cliff and the European debt crisis.
That would be a bad move, according to S&P. "Cash flow-positive companies have two choices: expand their business either through investments or acquisitions or return the cash to their shareholders," the report said. "We believe the option many companies have chosen in recent years, preserving the cash, can only be a short-term solution."
Higher Taxes Will Create Jobs and Cut the Deficit: David Cay Johnston
President Obama hit the road this week to build national support for increasing taxes on wealthy Americans. On Monday the president addressed autoworkers in Redford, Mich., outlining his budget proposal and explaining why higher tax rates were necessary at this critical juncture.
"Our economic success has never come from the top down," Obama said. "It comes from the middle out; it comes from the bottom up."
David Cay Johnston, Pulitzer prize-winning journalist and author of The Fine Print: How Big Companies Use "Plain English" to Rob You Blind, says higher taxes can actually create jobs, not kill them. In an interview with The Daily Ticker, he argues that additional revenue collected from higher taxes could be spent on infrastructure repairs and construction, a win-win situation for the nation and workers.
Johnston also supports higher taxes on the rich and says empirical evidence on the impact of low tax rates on the economy are overwhelmingly in favor of the president's proposal.
"Government revenues are down and total income for the bottom 90% of Americans has fallen back to 1966 levels," he says. Wealthy Americans are paying a larger share of their incomes in taxes "but their incomes have grown much more significantly so their share of income going toward taxes has fallen," Johnston says. "Of all the income gains in this entire country in 2010, 37 percent of it went to 15,600 households out of 156 million."
Taxes will likely rise for all Americans if lawmakers are truly serious about tackling the deficit, according to Johnston.
"If you're concerned about deficits, you need to bring in more money," he says. The economy may be too "delicate" to let the Bush tax cuts expire for lower income individuals right now Johnston concedes, but "as the economy gets stronger, there will need to be adjustments."
Goldman Sachs: Stocks Are the New Bonds
Central bank quantitative easing programs have left little value in the credit markets, so Investors should be looking for returns in European equities rather than bonds, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs told CNBC.
The global economic crisis might have caused investors to park their money into perceived safe-haven assets such as German bunds and U.S. Treasurys with near-zero yields, but Oppenheimer said on Thursday that investors would see higher dividends in European equities. According to him, the STOXX Europe 600 could deliver annual returns of more than 7 percent - despite stagnation in the euro area.
"So far, there has been a net absence of net flows going into the equity market, particularly in Europe,so equities have become almost an orphan asset class.But as more liquidity comes into the global economy through central bank actions and there is little value left in fixed-income markets, and even credit,equities will benefit by default," he said on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange".
"Next year, we do expect a recovery in the global economy...to which Europe's corporate sector is very well levered. It's that global recovery that allows margins to rise a little bit in the euro zone, gives some top-line growth and overall profit growth of around 9 percent."
Thursday, December 13, 2012
DBC打不死下周一變種 D100殺出路90日維新 (原載《信報》)
林旭華（左圖：中）牽頭發起「D100義播雲天九十日」，跟鄭經翰（左圖：左）與何國輝（左圖：右）密謀令DBC可以藉網絡來一場火鳳凰重生；下周一再「復播」，工作人員日以繼夜再夜以繼日設置好直播室，一向有要求的大班繼續意見多多。
因受政治打壓而已經壽終正寢的數碼廣播電台（DBC），正密鑼緊鼓準備再次復播！
在DBC主持林旭華牽頭下，電台將於下周一起，發起「D100義播雲天九十日」行動，雖然失去大氣電波這個「主場」，但電台就索性轉移陣地，利用網絡來進行廣播，除藉「義播」回饋聽眾，以及再次凝聚一眾主持及公眾外，更希望藉這90天經驗作「試金石」，為開發網絡市場鋪路，同時銳意成為香港網絡上第一家主流電台。
再次「開台」在即，DBC大股東兼創辦人鄭經翰，另一股東兼行政總裁何國輝，以及義播「搞手」林旭華三人接受老紀專訪，大談這個火鳳凰重生大計！
訪問在將軍澳壹傳媒大樓內進行，為免外界誤會DBC今次復播跟壹傳媒有關，又或是以為DBC跟壹傳媒合作，「大班」鄭經翰在訪問之先，即主動解釋，「我哋之前搵過好多地方，但夠大的地方唔多，最後先去呢度，主要係因為同《爽報》曾有過合作關係，所以今次係借或者講係租佢哋嘅studio，純係租客同房東（關係），我哋喺度用而造成的所有支出，都要畀番錢。」
至於由下周一開始的「D100義播雲天九十日」，大班直言促成行動有兩大原因，第一是服務聽眾，「我哋本身已有solid的聽眾群，大家共過患難，已經係朋友，冇得聽，佢哋好失落呀，所以好希望我哋繼續發聲」；其次，就是希望再次凝聚DBC的節目主持人。
不過，有別於上次的義播，當時DBC仍可以使用大氣電波，但DBC現時已被接管，故義播亦要轉移陣地，改為利用網絡來作平台進行廣播。
大班反覆強調，「D100」絕不是網台，「我哋只係透過網絡來廣播的電台，我哋甚至自願接受廣管局的條例規管，現時的網台雖然好靈活，但多數以業餘方式運作，但我哋就會以主流電台方式運作。」
他又笑言，唯一跟網台相似的，是義播在明年開始，會跟網台一樣都有視像直播，但網台會令節目猶如變成電視節目，義播提供視像，卻只是走「真人騷」路線，用來讓外界了解電台的真實運作，至於壹傳媒借出的場地，本來是錄影棚，正好因利乘便，方便作一些後期加工製作。
「大班」不諱言，以網絡廣播方式進行90日的義播，目的之一是作「姿態性顯示」，由於DBC的股東爭拗，將於下月中在法庭審議，現時義播，正好表明「我哋即日可以接收DBC」，「佢做唔掂但我做得到，更即時可以做到，你畀番個台我，我哋即時可以播得番晒所有節目，所以今次可以講話係我哋停播後，重回廣播的第一步。」
此外，只能以網絡作廣播，大班更視之為「進可攻，退可守」的契機！他表示，DBC本來的發展計劃，是先發展數碼廣播，之後階段就會發展互聯網，遺憾是第一步已壯志未酬，故此現時沒有了大氣電波，便正好藉今次經驗當試金石，探討發展互聯網廣播的模式，「現時年輕人就算聽電台都係上網聽，加上海外的聽眾，我哋可以服務埋鄰國，以前我對網絡都好有保留，但科技發展一日千里，我哋要諗點整個user friendly的平台畀人用，而連蘋果公司都用雲端來做電視、電影，DBC後期在智能電話上的app，有30萬用戶，數量係冠絕全港，可以見得係不容忽視。」
DBC行政總裁何國輝就補充，互聯網只是一個發放平台，而聲音廣播有別於印刷媒體，前者在互聯網上更有獨特優勢，「印刷的報紙就好似啤酒，印出來係雪凍的啤酒，放上網就變成熱啤，但聲音在互聯網上跟大氣電波卻係一樣，唔會失真。」
他又指，由於利用互聯網廣播，能提供更精準的聽眾數字，甚至會令廣告模式也帶來改變，「過去電視台賣廣告，係睇收視收錢，但實際有幾多人接收到，係一個未知數，因為大氣電波唔會數到聽眾觀眾人數，但現時唔同，直情可以話畀個客知有幾多人聽。」
他續稱，跟網台最大的分別，是電台同時着重節目編排，着重實時（real time）播放，因而與聽眾有互動，「有聽眾同我哋講，話由股東事件開始先聽我哋，但就咁改變咗佢生活習慣，寧願提早啲買餸，我哋聽到咁，覺得唔忿氣，明明DBC令個雪球愈滾愈大，如果再唔做啲嘢，班聽眾又會流失咗。」
在旁的大班就插口跟老紀稱，這正好反駁過去外間說電台已死，「其實只係內容已死，我哋係將節目跟大家的生活節奏來安排，咁先可以成為人生活的一部分。」
問題是，大班過去多次稱DBC事件，由來都是一場政治打壓，既然如此，要重奪DBC的控制權又談何容易？大班就表示，他相信公義，並對香港司法制度仍有信心，但也不否認是「兩條腿走路」，故義播期間一樣會照收廣告，而未來就不排除在發展成熟時會出app收錢，「希望做到用者自付，始終世上係沒有免費午餐。」
其實，過去DBC在PCCW多媒體裝置及now的收費電視平台上，都有合作關係並提供內容，兩者各有20多萬及100多萬的訂戶，大班明言，現時模式如果做得好，將來不排除會再合作。
然而，未來90日主要只依賴網上廣播，會否擔心太多聽眾而造成網絡塞車，大班就豪言未驚過，「我哋網上客量就肯定OK的，真係唔夠，咪再加大客量，證明有好多人聽，所以係一個happy problem，即唔係問題。
開發平價網絡收音機再造福聽眾
DBC的出現，開展香港數碼廣播新一頁，據大班透露，現時市面最少有10萬部數碼收音機「流通」，但自DBC停播後，數碼收音機似乎即同時滯銷，反映出DBC確似能左右市場。
由於失去大氣電波，義播就以「D100有聲台」名義轉戰網絡，而除上網可以聽到電台節目外，為照顧不懂上網的聽眾，義播又設有電話直播，只要致電36786789，即可收聽現場節目。
大班昨日就跟老紀爆料，稱當時營運DBC為推廣數碼廣播，於是開發不少廉價數碼收音機，而現時亦積極開發兩個新收聽工具，包括收音機電話及平價版網絡收音機（Internet Radio），以配合推廣網絡廣播之用。他指出，收音機電話會配備發聲喇叭，當有來電時，電話就會自動暫停電台廣播讓用戶接聽來電；至於網絡收音機，他透露正跟廠商研究，希望令價格大幅降低。
資料顯示，所謂的網絡收音機，實是能接收WiFi訊號的收音機也！現時不少人都習慣上網聽歌、聽新聞，但因為要打開網頁，故便得留在電腦前，網絡收音機的好處，是可以隨身攜帶，由廚房、客廳至書房，只要接收到WiFi訊號，收音機就能播放網絡上的電台節目，這些電台包括網路電台、國外電台，以及許多現時AM/FM電台都提供的同步網上播放。然而，由於網絡收音機尚未普及，故售價都頗為昂貴，型號選擇亦有限，現時電腦商場內售賣的款式，價格動輒逾千元以上，而最便宜也近千元，就算從淘寶上的內地「山寨貨」，亦最少要數百元人民幣。
遇新紮警花放蛇斷正 淫警涉約少女性交候審 (原載《蘋果日報》)
警員陳振威涉嫌唆使由女警放蛇假扮的援交「少女」性交。
警員涉嫌透過上網聯絡援交「少女」，連續兩日向「少女」表示願意花千多元與對方性交，但「少女」原來由新紮警花假扮。「少女」首日應約時借故離開，惟警員疑對她念念不忘，翌日再約性交，終被同袍拘捕。
涉案被告警員陳振威（40歲），昨否認兩項為不道德目的而唆使他人罪，明年2月6日開審。他被控於今年8月7及8日，分別在旺角弼街及朗豪坊內唆使同一名女警。控方將傳召三名證人出庭，被告將聘用私人律師辯護，會爭議警誡供詞，現准以現金2,000元保釋候審。
放蛇行動拘近30人
資料顯示，警方發現不法分子利用社交網站及智能手機apps交友軟件，誘使青少年提供性服務，警方今年展開代號「搜鯨」的行動，派出新女警放蛇扮援交少女，又派人假扮嫖客，整個行動拘捕近30人。
案件編號：KCCC5036/12
Monday, December 10, 2012
【The Death Of The Oceans?】BBC Horizon (YouTube)
Sir David Attenborough reveals the findings of one of the most ambitious scientific studies of our time - an investigation into what is happening to our oceans. He looks at whether it is too late to save their remarkable biodiversity.
Horizon travels from the cold waters of the North Atlantic to the tropical waters of the Great Barrier Reef to meet the scientists who are transforming our understanding of this unique habitat. Attenborough explores some of the ways in which we are affecting marine life - from over-fishing to the acidification of sea water.
The film also uncovers the disturbing story of how shipping noise is deafening whales and dolphins, affecting their survival in the future. Prof Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and Dr David Kline, prepare to launch an underwater laboratory that will monitor the effects of ocean acidification on coral reefs.
Horizon travels from the cold waters of the North Atlantic to the tropical waters of the Great Barrier Reef to meet the scientists who are transforming our understanding of this unique habitat. Attenborough explores some of the ways in which we are affecting marine life - from over-fishing to the acidification of sea water.
The film also uncovers the disturbing story of how shipping noise is deafening whales and dolphins, affecting their survival in the future. Prof Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and Dr David Kline, prepare to launch an underwater laboratory that will monitor the effects of ocean acidification on coral reefs.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Market Rebounds; Investors Stay Cautious
Equity stock market extends the gain from previous week. Market participants remain cautious. Fear of fiscal cliff is the main reason for low investor confidence. However, market participants are not ready to dump stocks yet.
There is no shortage of liquidity in the financial system. This helps to buoy equity stock market despite bad news coming out regularly. Market participants have low exposure to stocks and can pick up bargains if market retreats.
As it is approaching year end, trading activities are gradually coming down since investors are evaluating the final outcome in tax hike for the next year. When the uncertainty in tax hike is removed, market participants will turn back to economic condition again to determine market direction.
Investors Shun US Due to 'Cliff'
The looming "fiscal cliff" is causing the first signs of a shift away from U.S. markets into Europe, said Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
"More and more longer-term investors are being influenced by [the fiscal cliff impasse] and are starting to think Europe has dealt with some of its long-term issues, even though the economies are weak." O'Neill told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "I detect the first signs of people shifting more towards Europe from the U.S."
High-Speed Trades Hurt Investors, a Study Says
A top government economist has concluded that the high-speed trading firms that
have come to dominate the nation’s financial markets are taking significant profits from traditional investors.
The study comes as a council of the nation’s top financial regulators is showing increasing concern that the accelerating automation and speed of the financial markets may represent a threat both to other investors and to the stability of the financial system.
The issue of high-frequency trading has generated anxiety among investors in the stock market, where computerized trading first took hold. But the minutes from the oversight council, and the council’s annual report released this year, indicate that top regulators are viewing the automation of trading as a broader concern as high-speed traders move into an array of financial markets, including bond and foreign currency trading.
Mr. Kirilenko, who is about to leave the C.F.T.C. for an academic position at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, presented a draft of the paper at a C.F.T.C. conference last week. He said that the markets were a “zero sum game” in which the high-speed profits came at the expense of other traders.
Top U.S. FirmsAre Cash-Rich Abroad but Poor at Home
At a time when American companies hold near record amounts of cash, many are surprisingly cash poor at home. That doesn't mean they could suddenly run out of money to pay their bills. But it does mean there could be unseen limits on their ability to pay dividends and buy back shares.
With billions of dollars overseas that may never come back, the Securities and Exchange Commission is concerned that companies haven't been presenting investors with an honest appraisal of their liquidity. As a result, regulators are pressing companies to more clearly lay out how much of their cash is in the U.S. and how much is overseas and potentially encumbered by U.S. taxes.
The heavy imbalance between overseas and domestic cash at many U.S. companies in part reflects international expansion into new and sometimes more lucrative markets. Businesses may choose to pile up foreign cash to expand globally, paying for new facilities and overseas acquisitions.
Paulson Said to Blame Bet Against Europe for Most of Loss
John Paulson, manager of $20 billion in hedge funds, told investors that the bulk of his losses this year came on bets that the European sovereign-debt crisis would worsen, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Paulson lost 51 percent in his Advantage Plus Fund in 2011, mostly on a failed bet on an economic rebound.
U.S. household wealth rises to near 2007 high
The net wealth of U.S. households rose in the third quarter to its highest since late 2007, providing a hopeful sign for future consumer spending.
The data, part of the Fed's quarterly Flow of Funds report, also showed Americans continued their four-year-old effort to shed debt.
The 91% Tax Fantasy: Peter Schiff
The fiscal cliff deadline is looming and President Obama refuses to sign any legislation that doesn't raise tax rates on the top 2%. There is an understandable amount of debate on either side of the aisle over the president's decision.
In Krugman's Twinkie Manifesto, he claims that in the 1950s "incomes in the top bracket faced a marginal tax rate of 91% while taxes on corporate profits were twice as large, relative to national income, as in recent years."
Buffett's A Minimum Tax for the Wealthy article touts similar ideas.
In an op ed published in Friday's Wall Street Journal, Peter Schiff challenges the increasingly popular pro-tax rate hike argument:
"The confiscatory top marginal rates of the 1950s were essentially symbolic—very few actually paid them. In reality the vast majority of top earners faced lower effective rates than they do today," he writes.
The bottom line?
"The best thing we can do for economic growth is to lower taxes on the rich...they're already too high...but we also have to acknowledge that government is too big," he tells The Daily Ticker. "We have to dramatically reduce the size of government spending and if we don't do that then we need to be talking about tax increases on the middle class and working poor."
There is no shortage of liquidity in the financial system. This helps to buoy equity stock market despite bad news coming out regularly. Market participants have low exposure to stocks and can pick up bargains if market retreats.
As it is approaching year end, trading activities are gradually coming down since investors are evaluating the final outcome in tax hike for the next year. When the uncertainty in tax hike is removed, market participants will turn back to economic condition again to determine market direction.
Investors Shun US Due to 'Cliff'
The looming "fiscal cliff" is causing the first signs of a shift away from U.S. markets into Europe, said Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
"More and more longer-term investors are being influenced by [the fiscal cliff impasse] and are starting to think Europe has dealt with some of its long-term issues, even though the economies are weak." O'Neill told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "I detect the first signs of people shifting more towards Europe from the U.S."
High-Speed Trades Hurt Investors, a Study Says
A top government economist has concluded that the high-speed trading firms that
have come to dominate the nation’s financial markets are taking significant profits from traditional investors.
The study comes as a council of the nation’s top financial regulators is showing increasing concern that the accelerating automation and speed of the financial markets may represent a threat both to other investors and to the stability of the financial system.
The issue of high-frequency trading has generated anxiety among investors in the stock market, where computerized trading first took hold. But the minutes from the oversight council, and the council’s annual report released this year, indicate that top regulators are viewing the automation of trading as a broader concern as high-speed traders move into an array of financial markets, including bond and foreign currency trading.
Mr. Kirilenko, who is about to leave the C.F.T.C. for an academic position at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, presented a draft of the paper at a C.F.T.C. conference last week. He said that the markets were a “zero sum game” in which the high-speed profits came at the expense of other traders.
Top U.S. FirmsAre Cash-Rich Abroad but Poor at Home
At a time when American companies hold near record amounts of cash, many are surprisingly cash poor at home. That doesn't mean they could suddenly run out of money to pay their bills. But it does mean there could be unseen limits on their ability to pay dividends and buy back shares.
With billions of dollars overseas that may never come back, the Securities and Exchange Commission is concerned that companies haven't been presenting investors with an honest appraisal of their liquidity. As a result, regulators are pressing companies to more clearly lay out how much of their cash is in the U.S. and how much is overseas and potentially encumbered by U.S. taxes.
The heavy imbalance between overseas and domestic cash at many U.S. companies in part reflects international expansion into new and sometimes more lucrative markets. Businesses may choose to pile up foreign cash to expand globally, paying for new facilities and overseas acquisitions.
Paulson Said to Blame Bet Against Europe for Most of Loss
John Paulson, manager of $20 billion in hedge funds, told investors that the bulk of his losses this year came on bets that the European sovereign-debt crisis would worsen, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Paulson lost 51 percent in his Advantage Plus Fund in 2011, mostly on a failed bet on an economic rebound.
U.S. household wealth rises to near 2007 high
The net wealth of U.S. households rose in the third quarter to its highest since late 2007, providing a hopeful sign for future consumer spending.
The data, part of the Fed's quarterly Flow of Funds report, also showed Americans continued their four-year-old effort to shed debt.
The 91% Tax Fantasy: Peter Schiff
The fiscal cliff deadline is looming and President Obama refuses to sign any legislation that doesn't raise tax rates on the top 2%. There is an understandable amount of debate on either side of the aisle over the president's decision.
In Krugman's Twinkie Manifesto, he claims that in the 1950s "incomes in the top bracket faced a marginal tax rate of 91% while taxes on corporate profits were twice as large, relative to national income, as in recent years."
Buffett's A Minimum Tax for the Wealthy article touts similar ideas.
In an op ed published in Friday's Wall Street Journal, Peter Schiff challenges the increasingly popular pro-tax rate hike argument:
"The confiscatory top marginal rates of the 1950s were essentially symbolic—very few actually paid them. In reality the vast majority of top earners faced lower effective rates than they do today," he writes.
The bottom line?
"The best thing we can do for economic growth is to lower taxes on the rich...they're already too high...but we also have to acknowledge that government is too big," he tells The Daily Ticker. "We have to dramatically reduce the size of government spending and if we don't do that then we need to be talking about tax increases on the middle class and working poor."
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Golden Spike space venture wants to fly you to the moon ... for $1.4 billion
By Alan Boyle
A group of space veterans and big-name backers today took the wraps off the Golden Spike Company, a commercial space venture that aims to send paying passengers to the moon and back at an estimated price of $1.4 billion or more for two.
The venture would rely on private funding, and it's not clear when the first lunar flight would be launched — but the concept received a vote of support from NASA, which abandoned its own back-to-the-moon plan three and a half years ago.
Golden Spike's announcement came on the eve of the 40th anniversary of the launch of Apollo 17, the last manned moonshot. Backers of the plan, including former NASA executive Alan Stern and former Apollo flight director Gerry Griffin, discussed the company's strategy at a National Press Club briefing in Washington.
"The time is ripe for commercial human lunar exploration," Griffin told journalists.
Stern said Golden Spike's experienced team of board members and advisers gave him confidence that they'd be able to make good on what sounds like a supremely overambitious plan. "We realize this is the stuff of science fiction," he said. "We intend to make it science fact."
Stern, a planetary scientist who was NASA's associate administrator for science in 2007-2008, is Golden Spike's president and CEO, while Griffin is chairman of the board. Other board members include new-space entrepreneur Esther Dyson and Taber McCallum, co-founder and CEO of Paragon Space Development Corp. The lineup of advisers taps into a who's who of space figures, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former NASA shuttle program manager Wayne Hale, former NASA engineer Homer Hickam and Bill Richardson, who has served as U.N. ambassador, energy secretary and the governor of New Mexico.
The venture also numbers United Launch Alliance, Armadillo Aerospace, Masten Space Systems and several other space-industry players on its team for the lunar lander system.
Golden Spike takes its name from the ceremonial spike that joined the rails of the first transcontinental railroad across the United States in 1869, a milestone that opened up the Western frontier to new opportunities.
"We’re not just about America going back to the moon; we’re about American industry and American entrepreneurial spirit leading the rest of the world to an exciting era of human lunar exploration," Stern said in the venture's first news release. "It’s the 21st century, we’re here to help countries, companies, and individuals extend their reach in space, and we think we’ll see an enthusiastic customer manifest developing.”
Ambitions and doubts
Golden Spike's news release said the venture would make use of existing rockets as well as commercial spacecraft that are currently under development to send expeditions to the lunar surface, with the estimated cost of a two-person lunar surface mission starting at $1.4 billion. That's roughly equivalent to the cost of a flagship robotic mission to the moon or Mars, such as the Curiosity-class rover mission that NASA is planning to launch to the Red Planet in 2020.
Stern said Golden Spike's mission architecture has been in development for two years. Each expedition would involve two sets of two launches: The first set would put the pieces in place to pre-position a lander in lunar orbit, and the second set would deliver a two-person crew to hook up with the lander, head down to the lunar surface, return to lunar orbit and then sail home in a return capsule.
That architecture could be put in place for $7 billion to $8 billion, Stern said. "This is a breakthrough cost," he said. In addition to the $1.4 billion for each two-person expedition, Golden Spike would derive revenue from media ventures associated with each moonshot, Stern said.
Golden Spike said market studies indicated that 15 to 20 expeditions could be undertaken in the decade after the first landing. However, no time frame was given for that landing. That's just one of the gaps in Golden Spike's plan. Among the other questions yet to be resolved:
•How will Golden Spike fund its operations during the buildup to the first flight?
•Can private-sector efforts produce a workable lunar launch and landing system at a cost far less than the $100 billion that NASA said it would cost in 2005?
•Are Golden Spike's assumptions about the demand for lunar missions correct, even if the price point is in its estimated range of $1.4 billion and up?
•What relationships would Golden Spike be able to forge with NASA and international space efforts?
Reaction, pro and con
NASA's associate administrator for communications, David Weaver, issued a statement that portrayed the venture in a positive light while steering clear of a formal endorsement.
"This type of private-sector effort is further evidence of the timeliness and wisdom of the Obama administration's overall space policy— to create an environment where commercial space companies can build upon NASA’s past successes, allowing the agency to focus on the new challenges of sending humans to an asteroid and eventually Mars," Weaver said. "As the private sector works to develop human missions to the International Space Station and eventually the moon, NASA will continue to develop new technologies and capabilities to advance the frontier ever further into space."
But John Pike, a longtime expert on space policy who heads GlobalSecurity.org, said he was "deeply skeptical" about Golden Spike's business plan.
"If you could do it this cheap, somebody would have already done it," he told me.
Even if a lunar exploration program could be created for $8 billion, Pike said he didn't think the moonshot market would match Stern's expectations. "The implication is that they've got 20 countries that want to shoot people to the moon. I doubt it," he said.
India and China might be interested — but after that, Pike said, "How many countries are going to be prepared to spend money to be the 12th to land on the moon? ... I think a lot of these rocket men are just taking too many happy pills."
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Sunday, December 2, 2012
第59屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車(2012)賽事重溫 (YouTube)
11月16日 (星期五)
14:35 15:05 「澳博」澳門格蘭披治三級方程式大賽 - 排位賽
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 三級方程式大賽 排位賽 (11月16日) - 不完整
15:25 16:15 FIA世界房車錦標賽 – 澳門東望洋大賽 –「澳博」特約 – 排位賽
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 FIA世界房車錦標賽 排位賽
16:35 17:05 澳門格蘭披治電單車 - 第四十六屆大賽 – 排位賽
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 電單車大賽 排位賽 (11月16日)
11月17日 (星期六)
08:20 09:20 財神酒店澳門/香港埠際賽 – 10圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 財神酒店澳門/香港埠際賽
09:50 10:50 太陽城集團澳門路車挑戰賽 – 10圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 太陽城集團澳門路車挑戰賽
11:20 12:20 澳門電訊房車盃 – 12圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 澳門電訊房車盃
12:50 13:10 新濠天地澳門GT盃 – 排位賽
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 新濠天地澳門GT盃 排位賽 (11月17日)
14:00 14:50 「澳博」澳門格蘭披治三級方程式大賽 – 選拔賽 – 10圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 三級方程式大賽 (選拔賽)
11月18日 (星期日)
09:00 10:00 新濠天地澳門GT盃 – 12圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 新濠天地澳門GT盃
10:30 13:00 FIA世界房車錦標賽 – 澳門東望洋大賽 –「澳博」特約 – 兩回合各9圈 (兩回合之間設15分鐘歇息)
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 FIA世界房車錦標賽 第一回合
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 FIA世界房車錦標賽 第二回合
13:45 14:45 特備節目
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 特備節目 (11月17日)
15:30 16:30 「澳博」澳門格蘭披治三級方程式大賽 – 15圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 三級方程式大賽
16:30 17:10 澳門格蘭披治電單車 - 第四十六屆大賽 – 10圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 電單車大賽
14:35 15:05 「澳博」澳門格蘭披治三級方程式大賽 - 排位賽
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 三級方程式大賽 排位賽 (11月16日) - 不完整
15:25 16:15 FIA世界房車錦標賽 – 澳門東望洋大賽 –「澳博」特約 – 排位賽
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 FIA世界房車錦標賽 排位賽
16:35 17:05 澳門格蘭披治電單車 - 第四十六屆大賽 – 排位賽
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 電單車大賽 排位賽 (11月16日)
11月17日 (星期六)
08:20 09:20 財神酒店澳門/香港埠際賽 – 10圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 財神酒店澳門/香港埠際賽
09:50 10:50 太陽城集團澳門路車挑戰賽 – 10圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 太陽城集團澳門路車挑戰賽
11:20 12:20 澳門電訊房車盃 – 12圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 澳門電訊房車盃
12:50 13:10 新濠天地澳門GT盃 – 排位賽
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 新濠天地澳門GT盃 排位賽 (11月17日)
14:00 14:50 「澳博」澳門格蘭披治三級方程式大賽 – 選拔賽 – 10圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 三級方程式大賽 (選拔賽)
11月18日 (星期日)
09:00 10:00 新濠天地澳門GT盃 – 12圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 新濠天地澳門GT盃
10:30 13:00 FIA世界房車錦標賽 – 澳門東望洋大賽 –「澳博」特約 – 兩回合各9圈 (兩回合之間設15分鐘歇息)
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 FIA世界房車錦標賽 第一回合
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 FIA世界房車錦標賽 第二回合
13:45 14:45 特備節目
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 特備節目 (11月17日)
15:30 16:30 「澳博」澳門格蘭披治三級方程式大賽 – 15圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 三級方程式大賽
16:30 17:10 澳門格蘭披治電單車 - 第四十六屆大賽 – 10圈
第五十九屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車 電單車大賽
山寨手機末路 華強北爆結業潮 (原載《東方日報》)
國產山寨手機由於成本低廉、生產容易等特點，近十年間席捲神州，另憑「雙卡雙待」等便利功能，更成功打入港澳市場。不過，隨着新一代智能手機崛起、民眾消費能力提高，加上面對政府部門、網絡商店嚴打仿冒的「夾擊」，近年山寨手機銷量已大不如前，大批山寨廠被迫結業。其中被稱為「山寨手機大本營」的深圳華強北，近期更爆發大規模「執笠潮」，山寨手機步入前所未有的寒冬。
深圳華強北路多間商場均以出售山寨手機聞名，昔日人山人海。（資料圖片）
華強北遠望數碼商城、賽格廣場的商店以出售山寨手機聞名，批發網絡遍及全國，曾經是淘寶網最大山寨手機賣家的「藍優數碼」，亦是在這裏發迹。不過，本報記者昨到華強北視察，卻發現門面冷清，「櫃台轉讓」招牌到處可見。業內人士指，以往中小手機企業爭相進駐的現代之窗大廈，近兩月大批公司倒閉，其中一層原約廿間公司只剩九間。
高峰期年銷1.5億部
國產山寨手機是於○二年掀起首波浪潮，○七年起，諾基亞、三星等進軍內地市場，令國產品牌僅餘一成半市場份額。台灣聯發科翌年推出「Turnkey-Solution」的低價晶片方案，山寨廠只需採購鏡頭、外殼等零件，就能快速生產手機，再掀山寨浪潮。○九年，山寨手機出貨量創下近一億五千萬部的高峰。
華強北明通數碼城許多手機櫃枱人去樓空，顯得非常蕭條。（黃少君攝）
華強北電子市場現倒閉潮。
不過，隨着內地近年經濟崛起，民眾消費能力提高，而蘋果iPhone系列於○九年十月進入內地市場後，令高檔智能手機逐步成為主流。加上外國品牌進軍，迫使當局加強打擊仿冒貨，假貨氾濫的網絡商店遂成主要目標，「藍優數碼」就是於今年四月被深圳海關查封。
華強北電子市場生意蕭條，位於曼哈數碼廣場二樓的旺舖都要轉讓離場。
平時忙到連飯都沒時間吃的貨運業也大受打擊，員工坐等生意上門。
軟件無法與外商匹敵
「今天MP3賺就做MP3，明天手機賺就做手機！」中國移動互聯網產業聯副理事長李易批評，山寨廠只為賺快錢，普遍欠缺長遠目標。分析師閆小佳則指，蘋果手機所用配件由內地生產，硬件上，全球廠商其實處於同一起跑線，但軟件開發卻盡失先機，無法對抗蘋果iOS及谷歌Andriod等手機作業系統。有分析更認為，國產手機動輒打價格戰，懶理功能及品牌名聲，最終集體走向滅亡。
事實上，國產山寨手機今年七、八月曾出現「小陽春」。業內人士表示，當時市場上智能手機零件短缺，山寨廠商卻利用各種門路，搶到零件率先出貨。不過，由於山寨廠商過於樂觀，反導致供應過剩，近兩個月銷路暴跌，大批中小廠商損失嚴重，成為華強北爆發「執笠潮」的最直接因素。
一味靠抄 拖累國產品牌
山寨手機熱潮令大批創業者獲「第一桶金」，背後卻產生抄襲、無新意等種種質疑。有北京媒體指出，就算多個大型國產品牌多番求變，並相繼打進國際市場，但十年過去，國產手機不但未洗脫「山寨」污名，產品質素還有待改善。
「山寨」原形容小規模或家庭式工廠，但國產手機商為吸引消費者，往往選取與外國品牌極似的名稱，就連外形、作業系統等亦抄足，因而令「山寨」添上抄襲的意思。此外，山寨機質量屢受質疑，更不時發生爆炸事件。
山寨廠短視向錢看
《北京晨報》報道，山寨企業的高仿及純粹賺錢特質，只靠減價戰搶生意，暴露國產手機廠商過於浮躁。中興通訊旗下努比亞智能手機總經理倪飛直言，山寨給整個行業造成的傷害，需動員所有國產廠商以行動去修復。
報道援引國家知識產權局數據顯示，在全球智能手機專利排名中，國產品牌中興與華為，分別排名第四和第十，但指出兩者雖有自己的手機晶片，並開始研發手機作業系統，然而在穩定性、成本、使用範圍上，仍不能與國際廠商相比。
生意跌八成 汰弱留強困局
深圳華強北掀起「執笠潮」，大批中、小型店舖率先結業，餘下勉強經營的大型商店生意亦暴跌近八成。有店主坦承經營環境若未見好轉，年底前恐亦要「告別華強北」。不過，本港出售「山寨」的手機店卻未受影響，更有店主認為只是內地手機業汰弱留強的現象。
港人點睇
張先生（工程從業員）：「內地（手機廠）有執笠潮都不足為奇，因為佢哋比較亂，有時又幫啲大廠趕吓貨。」
店主叫苦「生意從未這樣差」
「太難以想像，從來沒試過生意如此差！」華強北遠望數碼城的新天建通訊有限公司負責人溫先生指，公司以往每日出貨量最少三、四千部，但現在最多只有六、七百部，生意暴跌七至八成。曼哈數碼廣場的店主吳先生更打算撐到農曆新年前，其後便回汕頭老家轉行。
昨到華強北購物的顧客鄭小姐表示，華強北的手機等貨品以價格便宜聞名，本來她亦打算添置一部平價山寨手機，但許多國際品牌手機都推出低價智能手機，相同條件下，現在已打消購買山寨手機念頭。
林小姐（大學生）：「冇試過用山寨手機呀，新聞話會爆炸，其實自己都好少用大陸嘢，就算充電器都唔會用。」
顧客鄭小姐表示，現在許多名牌機都推出千餘元的智能手機，肯定不會再幫襯山寨機。
本港一間手機店的負責人梁先生表示今次內地山寨機執笠潮是淘汰技術較落後的廠家。
而本港深水埗的手機店負責人梁先生指出，以往國產山寨手機沿用舊的JAVA技術，模擬外國手機的應用程式，雖然外觀相似及價格低，但功能較差，且傳送速度亦緩慢。他認為，即使行業出現執笠潮，亦只是淘汰一班技術較落後的廠家。
深圳華強北路多間商場均以出售山寨手機聞名，昔日人山人海。（資料圖片）
華強北遠望數碼商城、賽格廣場的商店以出售山寨手機聞名，批發網絡遍及全國，曾經是淘寶網最大山寨手機賣家的「藍優數碼」，亦是在這裏發迹。不過，本報記者昨到華強北視察，卻發現門面冷清，「櫃台轉讓」招牌到處可見。業內人士指，以往中小手機企業爭相進駐的現代之窗大廈，近兩月大批公司倒閉，其中一層原約廿間公司只剩九間。
高峰期年銷1.5億部
國產山寨手機是於○二年掀起首波浪潮，○七年起，諾基亞、三星等進軍內地市場，令國產品牌僅餘一成半市場份額。台灣聯發科翌年推出「Turnkey-Solution」的低價晶片方案，山寨廠只需採購鏡頭、外殼等零件，就能快速生產手機，再掀山寨浪潮。○九年，山寨手機出貨量創下近一億五千萬部的高峰。
華強北明通數碼城許多手機櫃枱人去樓空，顯得非常蕭條。（黃少君攝）
華強北電子市場現倒閉潮。
不過，隨着內地近年經濟崛起，民眾消費能力提高，而蘋果iPhone系列於○九年十月進入內地市場後，令高檔智能手機逐步成為主流。加上外國品牌進軍，迫使當局加強打擊仿冒貨，假貨氾濫的網絡商店遂成主要目標，「藍優數碼」就是於今年四月被深圳海關查封。
華強北電子市場生意蕭條，位於曼哈數碼廣場二樓的旺舖都要轉讓離場。
平時忙到連飯都沒時間吃的貨運業也大受打擊，員工坐等生意上門。
軟件無法與外商匹敵
「今天MP3賺就做MP3，明天手機賺就做手機！」中國移動互聯網產業聯副理事長李易批評，山寨廠只為賺快錢，普遍欠缺長遠目標。分析師閆小佳則指，蘋果手機所用配件由內地生產，硬件上，全球廠商其實處於同一起跑線，但軟件開發卻盡失先機，無法對抗蘋果iOS及谷歌Andriod等手機作業系統。有分析更認為，國產手機動輒打價格戰，懶理功能及品牌名聲，最終集體走向滅亡。
事實上，國產山寨手機今年七、八月曾出現「小陽春」。業內人士表示，當時市場上智能手機零件短缺，山寨廠商卻利用各種門路，搶到零件率先出貨。不過，由於山寨廠商過於樂觀，反導致供應過剩，近兩個月銷路暴跌，大批中小廠商損失嚴重，成為華強北爆發「執笠潮」的最直接因素。
一味靠抄 拖累國產品牌
山寨手機熱潮令大批創業者獲「第一桶金」，背後卻產生抄襲、無新意等種種質疑。有北京媒體指出，就算多個大型國產品牌多番求變，並相繼打進國際市場，但十年過去，國產手機不但未洗脫「山寨」污名，產品質素還有待改善。
「山寨」原形容小規模或家庭式工廠，但國產手機商為吸引消費者，往往選取與外國品牌極似的名稱，就連外形、作業系統等亦抄足，因而令「山寨」添上抄襲的意思。此外，山寨機質量屢受質疑，更不時發生爆炸事件。
山寨廠短視向錢看
《北京晨報》報道，山寨企業的高仿及純粹賺錢特質，只靠減價戰搶生意，暴露國產手機廠商過於浮躁。中興通訊旗下努比亞智能手機總經理倪飛直言，山寨給整個行業造成的傷害，需動員所有國產廠商以行動去修復。
報道援引國家知識產權局數據顯示，在全球智能手機專利排名中，國產品牌中興與華為，分別排名第四和第十，但指出兩者雖有自己的手機晶片，並開始研發手機作業系統，然而在穩定性、成本、使用範圍上，仍不能與國際廠商相比。
生意跌八成 汰弱留強困局
深圳華強北掀起「執笠潮」，大批中、小型店舖率先結業，餘下勉強經營的大型商店生意亦暴跌近八成。有店主坦承經營環境若未見好轉，年底前恐亦要「告別華強北」。不過，本港出售「山寨」的手機店卻未受影響，更有店主認為只是內地手機業汰弱留強的現象。
港人點睇
張先生（工程從業員）：「內地（手機廠）有執笠潮都不足為奇，因為佢哋比較亂，有時又幫啲大廠趕吓貨。」
店主叫苦「生意從未這樣差」
「太難以想像，從來沒試過生意如此差！」華強北遠望數碼城的新天建通訊有限公司負責人溫先生指，公司以往每日出貨量最少三、四千部，但現在最多只有六、七百部，生意暴跌七至八成。曼哈數碼廣場的店主吳先生更打算撐到農曆新年前，其後便回汕頭老家轉行。
昨到華強北購物的顧客鄭小姐表示，華強北的手機等貨品以價格便宜聞名，本來她亦打算添置一部平價山寨手機，但許多國際品牌手機都推出低價智能手機，相同條件下，現在已打消購買山寨手機念頭。
林小姐（大學生）：「冇試過用山寨手機呀，新聞話會爆炸，其實自己都好少用大陸嘢，就算充電器都唔會用。」
顧客鄭小姐表示，現在許多名牌機都推出千餘元的智能手機，肯定不會再幫襯山寨機。
本港一間手機店的負責人梁先生表示今次內地山寨機執笠潮是淘汰技術較落後的廠家。
而本港深水埗的手機店負責人梁先生指出，以往國產山寨手機沿用舊的JAVA技術，模擬外國手機的應用程式，雖然外觀相似及價格低，但功能較差，且傳送速度亦緩慢。他認為，即使行業出現執笠潮，亦只是淘汰一班技術較落後的廠家。
Friday, November 30, 2012
Market Consolidates; Fiscal Cliff Looms
After previous week of finding bottom, equity stock market struggled to bounce back. Fear of fiscal cliff has drawn attention of investors. Selling of stocks due to future dividend tax hike spreads to small investors. However, selling volume is very limited because of low exposure in equity stocks. This round of selling on fiscal cliff fear should have finished.
As market enters the last trading month of year, market participants begin to review the yearly investment result. Most of market participants are below broad market performance due to pessimistic sentiment in a strong market. Institutional and individual investors miss the year start rally and pass the buying opportunity on Euro zone debt crisis. Nevertheless, the calm reaction to the crisis is already better than the panic selling in previous year due to US rating downgrade. As a result, market manipulators cannot make as much profit as in last year when investors are dumping stocks on US rating downgrade.
Looking back on stock market performance in the last few years, the trend is as predicted which is a gradual upward trend with oscillations. After this round of selling, market should move up again in this cycle. Market manipulators effort to create panic selling becomes less effective as market participants have already dumped significant portion of equity stocks during the panic selling in previous years.
While investors are hiding in the safe haven of treasuries and bonds, market advances on improving economy and rising corporate profits. After the strong market rebound in 2009, many investors missed the rally and hoped for another market crash to re-enter market. Despite the widespread market fear of a double-dip, it was posted that double-dip in economy was very unlikely while a double-dip in stock market was not likely but still possible. It comes out that market has pullbacks but the magnitude was much smaller than many market participants would expect. Therefore many investors remain in the treasuries and bond market.
The following dialogue is found on the internet. It is representative of different investors attitude toward current equity stock market environment.
BEAR:
some of the guys even admitted there projections for this year weren't even close. Guesses is a better word for it than 'projections'. Nobody knows for sure, not even 'experts'. Far too many unknowns to have a hope of making an accurate projection a year from now.
But for me, until there's a major correction, i'm not going back into the stock market. Period. If i get left behind by some rally so be it, but there are so many negative influences about and so few positive ones, to my mind, the downside risk is far greater than the upside gain potential.
BULL:
I agree with you on the guesses. That's what they are but I think it's a mistake to be out of the market. It's also a guess as to whether they'll be a correction. The more substantive issue in your favor at this time is the decade plus struggle of the market. If you don't invest when things look bad when do you invest? If you invest when everything looks great it's too late. If that were how it works it would be a savings account. Nevertheless you sound like a reasonable guy. Good luck.
BEAR:
well, you're supposed to sell high and buy low, and right now in my view stock values are high not low They're puffed up on printed money and hope, and that isn't sound enough for me to venture back in, with a european recession just beginning, the huge US defecit and debt which will take its toll on the economy one way or the other, and the ghastly amount of central bank money printing which is going to have a big pricetag attached to it down the road..
BULL:
The thing about valuations is they can be a bit subjective and it's a poor timing mechanism.The great B Nygren sees the current valuations as very positive(see recent Barron's article) as do others. Sentiment from a longer term perspective is poor indeed with the average investor underweighted in stocks and overweighted in bonds. There's an indicator right there. A lot of people so certain in the late 90's that stocks would continue higher are no doubt the most bitterly resistant to this current bullish move(2009-2012). Once this tide turns and people come out of bonds into stocks it will be a major propellant. The darkest hours are always the best and the brightest should be times we reassess and consider leaving. Corporations are flush with money and once they pull the trigger to use it, it will be interesting. Working on the premise that poor investor sentiment is a good indicator for continued poor investment results will cost you a pantload as the Etrade baby says. Take a gander at the comments on this board and see how many line up bearish or bullish. The bears have been staying the course for going on four years ignoring a virtual double.
Smart Money? Hedge Funds Now Worse Than Mutual Funds
Hedge fund managers don’t have much to be thankful for these holidays, as failure to beat low-fee index funds will likely infuriate investors shelling out hefty fees for their services.
To make matters worse, hedge fund managers have crowded into the same trades, with turnover at a record low, according to Goldman.
“Many hedge funds turned into mutual funds — but with higher fees and worse performance — this year,” said Mike Murphy, who runs hedge fund Rosecliff Capital. “Hedge funds have underperformed because they have been hedging against a massive market correction as the memory of 2008 is still fresh in every one’s mind.”
It’s not just closet indexing leading to this underperformance. Record low interest rates globally have led to high correlations between stocks, bonds, gold and currencies, making it difficult for hedge fund managers to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.
Exodus From Stocks: 'Investors Are Turning Tail'
Fear of the "Fiscal Cliff" is causing the biggest exodus from U.S. stocks this year as investors essentially put their money under the mattress rather than trust Congress to come up with a compromise.
Some traders said the outflows may continue even if Congress comes to some sort of agreement before the end of the year. That's because any compromise is likely to include higher taxes on dividends and capital gains, at least for the highest earners.
"It's tough to pinpoint causation," said Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital. "Is it fiscal fears or concerns about dividends and capital gains increases?"
To be sure, others feel the retail investor could be getting out at just the wrong time with the potential for a big rally if Congress hatches a deal.
"The anxiety relating to the cliff is largely in the market," said Tony Crescenzi, market strategist for PIMCO. "Fear of the possibility is embedded in people's minds sufficiently enough to provide a cushion against some of the anxiety that is bound to appear before resolution of the cliff, which most do not expect until the week before Christmas."
Why Has Wall Street Gotten So Bullish About Next Year?
Even the bears are bullish for 2013, a year in which virtually every Wall Street expert believes the market will overcome its many headwinds and post a positive year.
While retail investors have been preoccupied with worries over fiscal armageddon, an election that is now past and a global economy nearing stall speed, strategists have been busy with projections that see sizeable stock gains.
Their reasons: A U.S. economy that is on the mend due to the nascent housing recovery and an expected surge in earnings, more cheap money from the Federal Reserve, and a general feeling that none of the various-worst scenarios out there will come to fruition.
"At first blush, it seemed like an inopportune time to commit to a year-ahead target and outlook, what with so many global uncertainties in our path," said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at Standard & Poor's/Capital IQ. "But most of these uncertainties have been with us for quite some time, and are now regarded by many as annoyances to resolve rather than obstacles to fear."
"History, global monetary policy, and the fundamental sweet spot of U.S. economic data argue strongly for better performance as we move...into next year," Canaccord's Tony Dwyer and Michael Welch said.
Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, remains bullish with a 1,500 call. The firm is "encouraged by the continued intention of central banks to maintain accommodative policy" and believes that "given current market pricing, equities continue to offer the best risk-adjusted return compared to other asset classes."
"We are cautious on the near-term outlook for US equities, but we remain constructive on the medium to longer term outlook," Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at BofA, said in a note. "Given the S&P 500's attractive valuation and weak investor sentiment, we expect positive earnings growth to drive the market to 1,600 by the end of 2013."
Seller’s Remorse Will Drive Stocks Higher Through Year End: Kilburg
Bears leaning against stocks into the end of the year will rue the day according to Jeff Kilburg, founder & CEO of Killir Kapital Management. In the attached clip the CNBC Contributor and former member of the Notre Dame football team says sellers were caught offsides by last week's rally, leaving them scrambling to get long exposure.
But there are reasons to be cautious. Beyond the familiar question marks in Europe and China, dismal corporate earnings and tax changes likely to be implemented early next year as part of the Fiscal Cliff have investors trimming stocks. It may not make sense to sell stocks to avoid a higher capital gains tax rate, but high yield stocks will lose fundamental value should dividend taxes be increased.
Uncertainty can make traders of us all. Kilburg thinks the people selling ahead of last week's ramp are going to be driven back into markets as a function of remorse as much as anything else. Should a rally materialize those short stocks here will be forced to buy in not through regret, but to stop the bleeding in their trading book. Either way, there figures to be people buying stocks at higher prices.
Taxing Wealth Is the Answer for Boosting Long-Term Growth: Dan Altman
Taxes are going up for most Americans on Jan. 1 unless Congress and the White House agree to a new plan to raise revenues and cut spending. This plan would avoid the massive tax hikes and spending cuts lawmakers agreed to last summer.
At this point in the negotiations over how to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, some Republicans are warming to the idea of raising revenues but they haven't committed to higher tax rates. President Obama insists on raising income tax rates for those earning more than $250,000 annually. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett favors higher tax rates on incomes above $500,000, and many in Washington and elsewhere are calling for an overhaul of the tax code that would eliminate or reduce common tax breaks.
Economist Daniel Altman is proposing something completely different on the tax front --- a system that taxes wealth rather than revenue. It's not intended to raise more revenues but rather to reduce inequality which, he says, threatens growth.
"Wealth inequality is making the pie smaller for all of us," Altman tells The Daily Ticker. It limits opportunities, which reduces productivity, and ultimately lowers "living standards for all of us in the long term."
Altman, an adjunct professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and author of four books, says wealth inequality in the U.S. has been rising steadily for the past 20 years.
"It's at a crazy high level that you only see in very poor countries, and it's starting to threaten growth," he says.
Bond Investor Gundlach Buys Stocks, Sees 'Kaboom' Ahead
It's mid-October, and Jeffrey Gundlach is giving a stump speech to a luncheon crowd of about 200 financial advisers and investors at Los Angeles's City Club. The renowned money manager's theme: the financial catastrophe on the horizon.
He recommends buying hard assets: Gemstones, art and commercial real estate are high on his list. And DoubleLine has been buying the stocks of Chinese companies, U.S. natural gas producers and gold-mining firms because it considers them to be bargains.
"I'm waiting for something to go kaboom," Gundlach says in his office a week before the L.A. speech. "If phase three takes two years, it's worth waiting for. The markets don't have lots of opportunity now."
"The only reason asset prices are up is because of all the liquidity in the system," says Luz Padilla, manager of the $707 million DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund. "Our concern is that it can turn very quickly."
Republicans Have Lost the Tax Fight: Politico’s White
A major story in Friday's New York Times confirmed something that most Americans understand, which is that today's tax rates are low compared with tax rates in the early 1980s.
They're also low when you compare the United States to other developed countries.
And they're low when you include state and local taxes, which the New York Times study did.
The reality of this, of course, hasn't stopped a lot of Americans from complaining that taxes are way too high and, therefore, that government spending must be cut.
Importantly, the tax increases being contemplated still won't make the U.S. a high-tax country relative to many other developed countries. That's something that any critic of tax increases needs to keep in mind.
Politico’s Ben White: Get Ready for a Market Rally Because a Fiscal Cliff Deal Is Coming
President Obama presented his opening offer for fiscal cliff negotiations on Thursday. The offer calls for $1.6 trillion in tax increases, $50 billion in infrastructure spending, home mortgage refinancing and the power to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling. Republicans have yet to place a counteroffer but they have said they will accept $800 billion in tax increases -- a far cry from Obama's proposal.
"We'll probably have a few more freak out declines before the actual deal is signed," he notes. "But when a deal is ultimately made, there will be a serious December rally based on relief that...we're going into next year with an economy that can grow without the fear of all of this austerity."
As market enters the last trading month of year, market participants begin to review the yearly investment result. Most of market participants are below broad market performance due to pessimistic sentiment in a strong market. Institutional and individual investors miss the year start rally and pass the buying opportunity on Euro zone debt crisis. Nevertheless, the calm reaction to the crisis is already better than the panic selling in previous year due to US rating downgrade. As a result, market manipulators cannot make as much profit as in last year when investors are dumping stocks on US rating downgrade.
Looking back on stock market performance in the last few years, the trend is as predicted which is a gradual upward trend with oscillations. After this round of selling, market should move up again in this cycle. Market manipulators effort to create panic selling becomes less effective as market participants have already dumped significant portion of equity stocks during the panic selling in previous years.
While investors are hiding in the safe haven of treasuries and bonds, market advances on improving economy and rising corporate profits. After the strong market rebound in 2009, many investors missed the rally and hoped for another market crash to re-enter market. Despite the widespread market fear of a double-dip, it was posted that double-dip in economy was very unlikely while a double-dip in stock market was not likely but still possible. It comes out that market has pullbacks but the magnitude was much smaller than many market participants would expect. Therefore many investors remain in the treasuries and bond market.
The following dialogue is found on the internet. It is representative of different investors attitude toward current equity stock market environment.
BEAR:
some of the guys even admitted there projections for this year weren't even close. Guesses is a better word for it than 'projections'. Nobody knows for sure, not even 'experts'. Far too many unknowns to have a hope of making an accurate projection a year from now.
But for me, until there's a major correction, i'm not going back into the stock market. Period. If i get left behind by some rally so be it, but there are so many negative influences about and so few positive ones, to my mind, the downside risk is far greater than the upside gain potential.
BULL:
I agree with you on the guesses. That's what they are but I think it's a mistake to be out of the market. It's also a guess as to whether they'll be a correction. The more substantive issue in your favor at this time is the decade plus struggle of the market. If you don't invest when things look bad when do you invest? If you invest when everything looks great it's too late. If that were how it works it would be a savings account. Nevertheless you sound like a reasonable guy. Good luck.
BEAR:
well, you're supposed to sell high and buy low, and right now in my view stock values are high not low They're puffed up on printed money and hope, and that isn't sound enough for me to venture back in, with a european recession just beginning, the huge US defecit and debt which will take its toll on the economy one way or the other, and the ghastly amount of central bank money printing which is going to have a big pricetag attached to it down the road..
BULL:
The thing about valuations is they can be a bit subjective and it's a poor timing mechanism.The great B Nygren sees the current valuations as very positive(see recent Barron's article) as do others. Sentiment from a longer term perspective is poor indeed with the average investor underweighted in stocks and overweighted in bonds. There's an indicator right there. A lot of people so certain in the late 90's that stocks would continue higher are no doubt the most bitterly resistant to this current bullish move(2009-2012). Once this tide turns and people come out of bonds into stocks it will be a major propellant. The darkest hours are always the best and the brightest should be times we reassess and consider leaving. Corporations are flush with money and once they pull the trigger to use it, it will be interesting. Working on the premise that poor investor sentiment is a good indicator for continued poor investment results will cost you a pantload as the Etrade baby says. Take a gander at the comments on this board and see how many line up bearish or bullish. The bears have been staying the course for going on four years ignoring a virtual double.
Smart Money? Hedge Funds Now Worse Than Mutual Funds
Hedge fund managers don’t have much to be thankful for these holidays, as failure to beat low-fee index funds will likely infuriate investors shelling out hefty fees for their services.
To make matters worse, hedge fund managers have crowded into the same trades, with turnover at a record low, according to Goldman.
“Many hedge funds turned into mutual funds — but with higher fees and worse performance — this year,” said Mike Murphy, who runs hedge fund Rosecliff Capital. “Hedge funds have underperformed because they have been hedging against a massive market correction as the memory of 2008 is still fresh in every one’s mind.”
It’s not just closet indexing leading to this underperformance. Record low interest rates globally have led to high correlations between stocks, bonds, gold and currencies, making it difficult for hedge fund managers to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.
Exodus From Stocks: 'Investors Are Turning Tail'
Fear of the "Fiscal Cliff" is causing the biggest exodus from U.S. stocks this year as investors essentially put their money under the mattress rather than trust Congress to come up with a compromise.
Some traders said the outflows may continue even if Congress comes to some sort of agreement before the end of the year. That's because any compromise is likely to include higher taxes on dividends and capital gains, at least for the highest earners.
"It's tough to pinpoint causation," said Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital. "Is it fiscal fears or concerns about dividends and capital gains increases?"
To be sure, others feel the retail investor could be getting out at just the wrong time with the potential for a big rally if Congress hatches a deal.
"The anxiety relating to the cliff is largely in the market," said Tony Crescenzi, market strategist for PIMCO. "Fear of the possibility is embedded in people's minds sufficiently enough to provide a cushion against some of the anxiety that is bound to appear before resolution of the cliff, which most do not expect until the week before Christmas."
Why Has Wall Street Gotten So Bullish About Next Year?
Even the bears are bullish for 2013, a year in which virtually every Wall Street expert believes the market will overcome its many headwinds and post a positive year.
While retail investors have been preoccupied with worries over fiscal armageddon, an election that is now past and a global economy nearing stall speed, strategists have been busy with projections that see sizeable stock gains.
Their reasons: A U.S. economy that is on the mend due to the nascent housing recovery and an expected surge in earnings, more cheap money from the Federal Reserve, and a general feeling that none of the various-worst scenarios out there will come to fruition.
"At first blush, it seemed like an inopportune time to commit to a year-ahead target and outlook, what with so many global uncertainties in our path," said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at Standard & Poor's/Capital IQ. "But most of these uncertainties have been with us for quite some time, and are now regarded by many as annoyances to resolve rather than obstacles to fear."
"History, global monetary policy, and the fundamental sweet spot of U.S. economic data argue strongly for better performance as we move...into next year," Canaccord's Tony Dwyer and Michael Welch said.
Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, remains bullish with a 1,500 call. The firm is "encouraged by the continued intention of central banks to maintain accommodative policy" and believes that "given current market pricing, equities continue to offer the best risk-adjusted return compared to other asset classes."
"We are cautious on the near-term outlook for US equities, but we remain constructive on the medium to longer term outlook," Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at BofA, said in a note. "Given the S&P 500's attractive valuation and weak investor sentiment, we expect positive earnings growth to drive the market to 1,600 by the end of 2013."
Seller’s Remorse Will Drive Stocks Higher Through Year End: Kilburg
Bears leaning against stocks into the end of the year will rue the day according to Jeff Kilburg, founder & CEO of Killir Kapital Management. In the attached clip the CNBC Contributor and former member of the Notre Dame football team says sellers were caught offsides by last week's rally, leaving them scrambling to get long exposure.
But there are reasons to be cautious. Beyond the familiar question marks in Europe and China, dismal corporate earnings and tax changes likely to be implemented early next year as part of the Fiscal Cliff have investors trimming stocks. It may not make sense to sell stocks to avoid a higher capital gains tax rate, but high yield stocks will lose fundamental value should dividend taxes be increased.
Uncertainty can make traders of us all. Kilburg thinks the people selling ahead of last week's ramp are going to be driven back into markets as a function of remorse as much as anything else. Should a rally materialize those short stocks here will be forced to buy in not through regret, but to stop the bleeding in their trading book. Either way, there figures to be people buying stocks at higher prices.
Taxing Wealth Is the Answer for Boosting Long-Term Growth: Dan Altman
Taxes are going up for most Americans on Jan. 1 unless Congress and the White House agree to a new plan to raise revenues and cut spending. This plan would avoid the massive tax hikes and spending cuts lawmakers agreed to last summer.
At this point in the negotiations over how to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, some Republicans are warming to the idea of raising revenues but they haven't committed to higher tax rates. President Obama insists on raising income tax rates for those earning more than $250,000 annually. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett favors higher tax rates on incomes above $500,000, and many in Washington and elsewhere are calling for an overhaul of the tax code that would eliminate or reduce common tax breaks.
Economist Daniel Altman is proposing something completely different on the tax front --- a system that taxes wealth rather than revenue. It's not intended to raise more revenues but rather to reduce inequality which, he says, threatens growth.
"Wealth inequality is making the pie smaller for all of us," Altman tells The Daily Ticker. It limits opportunities, which reduces productivity, and ultimately lowers "living standards for all of us in the long term."
Altman, an adjunct professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and author of four books, says wealth inequality in the U.S. has been rising steadily for the past 20 years.
"It's at a crazy high level that you only see in very poor countries, and it's starting to threaten growth," he says.
Bond Investor Gundlach Buys Stocks, Sees 'Kaboom' Ahead
It's mid-October, and Jeffrey Gundlach is giving a stump speech to a luncheon crowd of about 200 financial advisers and investors at Los Angeles's City Club. The renowned money manager's theme: the financial catastrophe on the horizon.
He recommends buying hard assets: Gemstones, art and commercial real estate are high on his list. And DoubleLine has been buying the stocks of Chinese companies, U.S. natural gas producers and gold-mining firms because it considers them to be bargains.
"I'm waiting for something to go kaboom," Gundlach says in his office a week before the L.A. speech. "If phase three takes two years, it's worth waiting for. The markets don't have lots of opportunity now."
"The only reason asset prices are up is because of all the liquidity in the system," says Luz Padilla, manager of the $707 million DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund. "Our concern is that it can turn very quickly."
Republicans Have Lost the Tax Fight: Politico’s White
A major story in Friday's New York Times confirmed something that most Americans understand, which is that today's tax rates are low compared with tax rates in the early 1980s.
They're also low when you compare the United States to other developed countries.
And they're low when you include state and local taxes, which the New York Times study did.
The reality of this, of course, hasn't stopped a lot of Americans from complaining that taxes are way too high and, therefore, that government spending must be cut.
Importantly, the tax increases being contemplated still won't make the U.S. a high-tax country relative to many other developed countries. That's something that any critic of tax increases needs to keep in mind.
Politico’s Ben White: Get Ready for a Market Rally Because a Fiscal Cliff Deal Is Coming
President Obama presented his opening offer for fiscal cliff negotiations on Thursday. The offer calls for $1.6 trillion in tax increases, $50 billion in infrastructure spending, home mortgage refinancing and the power to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling. Republicans have yet to place a counteroffer but they have said they will accept $800 billion in tax increases -- a far cry from Obama's proposal.
"We'll probably have a few more freak out declines before the actual deal is signed," he notes. "But when a deal is ultimately made, there will be a serious December rally based on relief that...we're going into next year with an economy that can grow without the fear of all of this austerity."
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
豔星葉玉卿息影16年後複出 加盟邵氏賀歲片 (原載《蘋果日報》)
中新網11月27日電 據台灣《蘋果日報》消息，已息影16年、現年45歲的香港性感女神葉玉卿，日前跟好友吳君如開玩笑說會複出拍戲，沒想到她真的已答應接拍賀歲電影《我愛HK2013恭喜發財》，與譚詠麟飾演一對夫妻，力挺該片監製曾誌偉及導演鍾樹佳，據悉，葉玉卿會趁每年12月一家大小回香港探親時開工，可以同時兼顧3名子女。
對葉玉卿複出拍戲，《我愛》導演鍾樹佳昨接受電訪坦承：“她口頭上已經答應，我派好多人去談，她人很好，看到前陣子新聞葉玉卿想出來拍戲，我和工作人員開會說不如找她，沒想到她OK。”問葉玉卿所演角色，鍾樹佳表示她演譚詠麟老婆，但她何時開工，還不知道。
葉玉卿1985年參加亞洲小姐奪季軍出道，1991年一口氣拍下《情不自禁》、《我為卿狂》和《卿本佳人》3套三級片，片中她3點盡露，奠定性感女神地位。
1993年她先後拍攝《天台的月光》、《玫瑰玫瑰我愛你》和《愛在黑社會的日子》，成功脫離三級女星行列，之後還出唱片，人氣高漲，她憑《天台的月光》獲入圍香港電影金像獎及台灣金馬獎最佳女主角，可惜最後沒有封后。
1996年她嫁給紐約經營連鎖超市的富商胡兆明，之後便息影移居紐約，協助丈夫經營生意，她先後為老公生下3名子女，前年全家展開亞洲度假之旅，當時他們也乘坐私人專機到台，派頭十足。
Monday, November 26, 2012
Sunday, November 25, 2012
肯德基原料雞 吃抗生素45天速成 (原載《明報》)
【明報專訊】聲稱為內地肯德基、麥當勞提供雞肉的山西粟海集團，被指用大量的工業鹽、氯化膽鹼原料配成飼料餵雞，工人說，飼料內加入了對人體有害的添加劑。集團回應指給雞吃抗生素，「就像人病了要吃藥一樣，並非不可接受」。肯德基則稱粟海僅佔其雞肉採購量1%左右，將加強檢驗並根據調查情况作相應處理，麥當勞則稱粟海非其供應商。
中國經濟網報道，山西粟海集團近日向農民推廣養雞致富，聲稱從雛雞到成品雞只需要45天。推廣人員稱，農戶養的雞由公司統一配料、供藥和回收，最後進入麥當勞、肯德基和一些大型超市，一年可以養5、6批，每隻雞可賺2到3元人民幣。
肯德基﹕只佔採購量1%
粟海集團在山西萬榮、平陸等多地都有簽約養殖基地，所有養殖場都由集團提供飼料。據養殖人員稱，飼料有3種，前10天吃一號飼料，是增加營養的；然後吃2號料，是長骨骼的；最後15天吃3號料，是長肉的，一天能長2到3両。
粟海飼料廠佔地10餘畝，離遠就能聞到令人反胃的氣味。車間內有大量的工業鹽、氯化膽鹼原料，工人們不時把粉末狀原料倒入機器中加工。據工人解釋說，「這些飼料配了藥，有添加劑，具體是什麽不知道，但對人體肯定有害，周邊的蒼蠅都毒死了，年輕人都不敢在這裏幹活。」
為保證飼料質量，該公司還有專門的配藥車間。車間內有很多瓶罐貼有各種化學名稱，既有重金屬的硝酸銀，也有滅菌的藥劑。配藥員將藥配好後，交給工人加入不同型號飼料中。
「飼料邊的蒼蠅都毒死了」
簽約養殖農戶稱，按要求，一棚養5000隻雞，密度大很易生病，解決方法就是不斷餵藥，提高雞的抗病能力。因生長周期僅有45天，雞不等發病就被集團運走，流入餐廳。但粟海集團不准養殖戶私自從外面購藥。
對於雞隻驚人的生長速度，粟海回應稱，與激素無關，而是雞種經過精心選育，把飼料轉化為肉的能力實現了「鳥槍換炮」的飛躍。而工業鹽是軟化水質的，氯化膽鹼也是國家允許使用的營養性飼料添加劑。至於給雞吃抗生素，「就像人病了要吃藥一樣，並非不可接受。」強調對人體健康的影響小到「可以忽略」。
中國經濟網報道，山西粟海集團近日向農民推廣養雞致富，聲稱從雛雞到成品雞只需要45天。推廣人員稱，農戶養的雞由公司統一配料、供藥和回收，最後進入麥當勞、肯德基和一些大型超市，一年可以養5、6批，每隻雞可賺2到3元人民幣。
肯德基﹕只佔採購量1%
粟海集團在山西萬榮、平陸等多地都有簽約養殖基地，所有養殖場都由集團提供飼料。據養殖人員稱，飼料有3種，前10天吃一號飼料，是增加營養的；然後吃2號料，是長骨骼的；最後15天吃3號料，是長肉的，一天能長2到3両。
粟海飼料廠佔地10餘畝，離遠就能聞到令人反胃的氣味。車間內有大量的工業鹽、氯化膽鹼原料，工人們不時把粉末狀原料倒入機器中加工。據工人解釋說，「這些飼料配了藥，有添加劑，具體是什麽不知道，但對人體肯定有害，周邊的蒼蠅都毒死了，年輕人都不敢在這裏幹活。」
為保證飼料質量，該公司還有專門的配藥車間。車間內有很多瓶罐貼有各種化學名稱，既有重金屬的硝酸銀，也有滅菌的藥劑。配藥員將藥配好後，交給工人加入不同型號飼料中。
「飼料邊的蒼蠅都毒死了」
簽約養殖農戶稱，按要求，一棚養5000隻雞，密度大很易生病，解決方法就是不斷餵藥，提高雞的抗病能力。因生長周期僅有45天，雞不等發病就被集團運走，流入餐廳。但粟海集團不准養殖戶私自從外面購藥。
對於雞隻驚人的生長速度，粟海回應稱，與激素無關，而是雞種經過精心選育，把飼料轉化為肉的能力實現了「鳥槍換炮」的飛躍。而工業鹽是軟化水質的，氯化膽鹼也是國家允許使用的營養性飼料添加劑。至於給雞吃抗生素，「就像人病了要吃藥一樣，並非不可接受。」強調對人體健康的影響小到「可以忽略」。
Friday, November 23, 2012
End Of Market Selling
Equity stock market shot up on the last day of a holiday shortened trading week. It appears that now it can be claimed that market bottom has been reached. And market should rebound on an overall improved economy. Three weeks ago, it was observed that long term investors were taking profit as market seemed to have reached recent peak which was close to historic peak. It was reasonable for long term investors to increase the cash level for future bargains if market would collapse which many market participants would expect. Selling was constrained because there was no need for panic selling and liquidation was only for small portion of the complete portfolio. It was expected that the following week would see a rebound in market as sellers completed selling and majority of market participants were waiting on the sideline with cash. But actually market manipulators and day traders continued to drag down market on fear of fiscal cliff where wealthy investors continued to liquidate stocks on potential tax hike.
Finally, selling stopped last week as predicted but a week later. As mentioned, there is tremendous capital in the financial market and households are hoarding cash on saving. With symptoms of market support, bargain hunters begin to pick up shares for trading. There is increasing market participants that speculate market cycles and make a fortune on trading the low and high of market. Therefore trading volume slightly increases recently with more interest from institutional and individual investors. Nevertheless, overall confidence of market participants is still fragile in equity stocks. But the demand for higher yield investment assets are soaring as investors are flooded with cash and do not want the money eaten up by inflation.
Actual economic condition is better than many would expect. Individuals are seeing increase in saving and improvement in living standard. Corporations are performing well and have access to cheap financing. While the economy prospers, companies encounter wage inflation which would hurt profitability. Nevertheless, overall economy is on track to a slow recovery from the trough of financial meltdown. Technology is a driving force which on one hand increases productivity and on the other hand increases economic activities through production and sale of modern gadgets and information technology. Domestic economy in the United States is comparably better than other parts of the world. Europe is still under the threat of sovereign debt crisis and China economy encounters slowdown. Market manipulators and traders would still exploit market news to make profit from panic selling due to weak confidence in equity stocks. As mentioned many times in earlier posts, market trend is up in long run because of technology innovation as well as surplus capital to buoy market in short term.
Waiting For The Dow Industrials To Be Cut In Half: Thomas Kee
There's an old adage on Wall Street that tries to gauge sentiment by characterizing whether investors are more fearful of missing the bus or getting run over by the bus. For the past few weeks, the latter has prevailed, as investors truly fled the stock market at every possible chance to get out of the way of what has truly been a slow moving train wreck that's seen 8% cleaved off the benchmark S&P 500.
"People always want to jump in on the short side after the market has declined," says Tom Kee, President and CEO of Stock Traders Daily in the attached video.
His closing advice for the pessimistically inclined: "you have to do the opposite of the masses and never chase the market on the downside or chase it lower."
Why It's Best for US to Fall Off 'Fiscal Cliff'
While Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke forecasts 2013 will be a "very good year" for the world's largest economy if the "fiscal cliff" is avoided, one analyst argues a cliff-triggered recession is exactly what the U.S. needs.
The $600 billion in tax hikes and government spending cuts, set to take place in January 2013 if policymakers do not reach a compromise for avoiding them, are essential to debt reduction and the long-term balancing of the U.S. budget, Gambles said.
"If we extend the Bush tax cuts and carry on getting deeper and deeper in debt, believe me that's a lot uglier," he added.
Parched Earth Policy: Are We Running Out of Water?
As Americans gather around their Thanksgiving tables for an abundance of food, it will be a sharp contract to what some experts are calling a severe crisis - the scarcity of fresh water.
The scarcity, these analysts say, can no longer be avoided as the effects of a world water shortage will have life-threatening and global economic consequences.
A major reason for the water shortage is drought. Some 56 percent of the United States is experiencing drought conditions - the most extensive area of drought in the U.S. in 12 years of tracking. Other areas of the world, like the Korean peninsula, have endured the worst drought conditions in more than a century.
Adding to the water scarcity is an ever increasing world population - along with increased urbanization - and economic growth, all of which demand and consume larger and larger amounts of water. The United Nations has said that two thirds of the world will live in water-stressed countries by 2025.
"Our climate - whether you want to call it global warming or climate change - is different than it was 50 years ago," said William Moomaw, professor of international environmental policy at Tufts University.
"To have a hurricane like Sandy in October just shows you how the oceans are warming. The weather patterns are only going to change even more and get worse as time goes on." said Moomaw.
"We need to continue to develop desalination technologies that are not so energy intensive or polluting. We need to accelerate our wastewater recycling programs to allow for more reuse of water," said Petrovksy. "And we need to decide as a society whether green lawns and landscaping, golf courses, swimming pools and unnecessary agriculture (like tobacco and coffee) are worth the use of water."
Finally, selling stopped last week as predicted but a week later. As mentioned, there is tremendous capital in the financial market and households are hoarding cash on saving. With symptoms of market support, bargain hunters begin to pick up shares for trading. There is increasing market participants that speculate market cycles and make a fortune on trading the low and high of market. Therefore trading volume slightly increases recently with more interest from institutional and individual investors. Nevertheless, overall confidence of market participants is still fragile in equity stocks. But the demand for higher yield investment assets are soaring as investors are flooded with cash and do not want the money eaten up by inflation.
Actual economic condition is better than many would expect. Individuals are seeing increase in saving and improvement in living standard. Corporations are performing well and have access to cheap financing. While the economy prospers, companies encounter wage inflation which would hurt profitability. Nevertheless, overall economy is on track to a slow recovery from the trough of financial meltdown. Technology is a driving force which on one hand increases productivity and on the other hand increases economic activities through production and sale of modern gadgets and information technology. Domestic economy in the United States is comparably better than other parts of the world. Europe is still under the threat of sovereign debt crisis and China economy encounters slowdown. Market manipulators and traders would still exploit market news to make profit from panic selling due to weak confidence in equity stocks. As mentioned many times in earlier posts, market trend is up in long run because of technology innovation as well as surplus capital to buoy market in short term.
Waiting For The Dow Industrials To Be Cut In Half: Thomas Kee
There's an old adage on Wall Street that tries to gauge sentiment by characterizing whether investors are more fearful of missing the bus or getting run over by the bus. For the past few weeks, the latter has prevailed, as investors truly fled the stock market at every possible chance to get out of the way of what has truly been a slow moving train wreck that's seen 8% cleaved off the benchmark S&P 500.
"People always want to jump in on the short side after the market has declined," says Tom Kee, President and CEO of Stock Traders Daily in the attached video.
His closing advice for the pessimistically inclined: "you have to do the opposite of the masses and never chase the market on the downside or chase it lower."
Why It's Best for US to Fall Off 'Fiscal Cliff'
While Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke forecasts 2013 will be a "very good year" for the world's largest economy if the "fiscal cliff" is avoided, one analyst argues a cliff-triggered recession is exactly what the U.S. needs.
The $600 billion in tax hikes and government spending cuts, set to take place in January 2013 if policymakers do not reach a compromise for avoiding them, are essential to debt reduction and the long-term balancing of the U.S. budget, Gambles said.
"If we extend the Bush tax cuts and carry on getting deeper and deeper in debt, believe me that's a lot uglier," he added.
Parched Earth Policy: Are We Running Out of Water?
As Americans gather around their Thanksgiving tables for an abundance of food, it will be a sharp contract to what some experts are calling a severe crisis - the scarcity of fresh water.
The scarcity, these analysts say, can no longer be avoided as the effects of a world water shortage will have life-threatening and global economic consequences.
A major reason for the water shortage is drought. Some 56 percent of the United States is experiencing drought conditions - the most extensive area of drought in the U.S. in 12 years of tracking. Other areas of the world, like the Korean peninsula, have endured the worst drought conditions in more than a century.
Adding to the water scarcity is an ever increasing world population - along with increased urbanization - and economic growth, all of which demand and consume larger and larger amounts of water. The United Nations has said that two thirds of the world will live in water-stressed countries by 2025.
"Our climate - whether you want to call it global warming or climate change - is different than it was 50 years ago," said William Moomaw, professor of international environmental policy at Tufts University.
"To have a hurricane like Sandy in October just shows you how the oceans are warming. The weather patterns are only going to change even more and get worse as time goes on." said Moomaw.
"We need to continue to develop desalination technologies that are not so energy intensive or polluting. We need to accelerate our wastewater recycling programs to allow for more reuse of water," said Petrovksy. "And we need to decide as a society whether green lawns and landscaping, golf courses, swimming pools and unnecessary agriculture (like tobacco and coffee) are worth the use of water."
Thursday, November 22, 2012
大石與巴士故事 (轉載)
又是一篇早期的網上文章：
有一對戀人乘坐一輛巴士進入山區，他們打算在某處下車，開開心心往郊遊去。
他們下車後，那巴士繼續向前駛……
巴士行駛途中，突然有一塊大石從山腰墜下，並將巴士壓得粉碎，司機連同所有乘客，無一生還。
這對戀人看到這件事後竟然說︰「如果我們都在那輛巴士就好了。」
奇怪！一般人都會說：「好彩，我們剛好下了車！……」
但他們卻說了不同於一般人的話，你認為他們為什麼會這樣說？
(備註: 網上文章是這樣問人的。)
先想想再往下找答案……
.
.
.
再想想吧！……
.
.
.
如果他們都留在車上沒有下車，那輛巴士將會因他們沒有下車，而趕在大石墜下前，安全地駛過出事地點。 (當然，早前的車站，只有他們倆人下車。)
這文章原意要告訴我們，在生活中，多嘗試以不同的角度來正面思考及多找機會去幫助他人，別再不知不覺中，只自私的為自己而活著。
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
香港反戰集會遊行 (轉載)
香 港 反 戰 集 會 遊 行
日期：2012年11月24日(星期六)
時間：下午二時正
集合地點：金鐘海富中心二期樓下（以色列駐港總領事館在701室）
不要戰爭，停止仇殺 No War, Stop Killing
程序：
2:00 pm 在以色列駐港總領事館樓下(近夏愨道)集會，呼籲停火（唱歌、口號、宣讀聲明、自由發言、遞信）。
2:30 pm 遊行至美國駐香港總領事館（中環花園道26號）。
2:50 pm 於美國駐香港總領事館門前集會，呼籲美國促使以色列停火（唱歌、口號、宣讀聲明、遞信）。
3:10 pm 結束。
主辦團體：反戰爭求和平委員會(http://fungchiwood.com/notwar.htm)
聯絡人：馮智活（電郵: fungchiwood@priest.com、facebook: Fung Chi Wood）
合辦團體：路小教會、香港基督徒學會 (其他團體在聯絡中，請各團體加入)
(大會聲明在草擬中)
如有團體加入為合辦團體，請通知馮智活，謝謝！
日期：2012年11月24日(星期六)
時間：下午二時正
集合地點：金鐘海富中心二期樓下（以色列駐港總領事館在701室）
不要戰爭，停止仇殺 No War, Stop Killing
程序：
2:00 pm 在以色列駐港總領事館樓下(近夏愨道)集會，呼籲停火（唱歌、口號、宣讀聲明、自由發言、遞信）。
2:30 pm 遊行至美國駐香港總領事館（中環花園道26號）。
2:50 pm 於美國駐香港總領事館門前集會，呼籲美國促使以色列停火（唱歌、口號、宣讀聲明、遞信）。
3:10 pm 結束。
主辦團體：反戰爭求和平委員會(http://fungchiwood.com/notwar.htm)
聯絡人：馮智活（電郵: fungchiwood@priest.com、facebook: Fung Chi Wood）
合辦團體：路小教會、香港基督徒學會 (其他團體在聯絡中，請各團體加入)
(大會聲明在草擬中)
如有團體加入為合辦團體，請通知馮智活，謝謝！
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Saturday, November 17, 2012
澳門賽車港車手高速入彎撞欄身亡 (來源: 香港成報)
香港「新車神」丘永材昨在東方彎撞欄後，救援人員趕至拯救。 （新華社）
澳門格蘭披治大賽車接連兩日發生車手死亡意外，繼日前葡籍電單車手卡尼拉撞欄死亡後，本港著名賽車手丘永材（英文名Phillip），昨在澳門電訊房車盃出席排位賽，賽車轉入文華東方彎一刻，疑車輛過快失控，估計以超過200公里的時速撞向圍欄，當下車身嚴重損毀，車內的丘亦承受莫大的撞擊力受傷。救護人員趕抵，戰衣已滿佈血漬的丘永材被救離車廂，送院搶救，可惜抵院不到30分鐘，因傷勢過重終告不治。澳門格蘭披治大賽車委員會對事件表示十分遺憾，而死者家人昨晚隨即抵澳善後，在賽會安排下進行路祭，各人傷心不已。記者林嘉諾報導
40歲的丘永材為香港著名賽車手，曾被稱為「新車神」，曾參加三屆澳門格蘭披治大賽車，在車壇界有一定實力。屬於香港陸方車隊的他，賽前一日更接受訪問，談論自己戰車。他昨駕31號雪佛蘭廠戰車，與數十名車手競逐澳門電訊房車盃排位賽，一時間風馳電掣，驚險萬分。
撞欄扭曲 剪車救人
事發昨午1時11分，丘正準備轉入文華東方彎，速度逾200公里之下疑失控，左邊車頭先撞向圍欄，車身即冒出大量白煙；撞欄後仍駛行一段路程始停下。直接衝擊力加上屬左軚，車輛在撞欄後一直貼著防撞欄滑行，車架完全扭曲，而車底亦冒出火光及黑煙，最後才停下來。
工作人員立即出示紅旗，通知各單位搶救，兩部置有急救醫療設備的搶救車即時趕到，拯救車也緊隨而至，由於當時撞擊力非常猛烈，救援人員圖先打開車門救出丘，但經過四五次嘗試也未能打開。搶救人員用電剪剪開賽車，數分鐘後，至昨午1時19分才將傷者抬出，再由救護車送往澳門仁伯爵綜合醫院搶救，至昨午1時24分到達醫院急症室，經過心肺復甦搶救後，丘於昨午1時51分不治。
丘的車隊領導和家人昨晚到達山頂醫院了解情況。當時身在丘後面目擊情況的隊友鄺海峰接受訪問指出，丘的房車當時應以高速超過200公里入彎，因該房車屬於左駄，撞向防撞欄後，令司機位置直接受衝擊。賽車評述員陳恩能表示，由於進入東方彎前後都是一段直路，不少車手都希望藉這個位置，縮短排位賽時間。
快速入彎 難度極大
而香港賽車學校創辦人冼浩明指出，東方彎是一個高速彎位，需入彎的車速很高，且只有一條行車線，難度亦同時增加，以前在該彎位亦發生過類似意外。他表示，丘永材應有能力應付這個彎位，估計導致意外的原因和天氣有關。對於車手有否意外賠償，他說一般車手在參賽前都會簽「生死狀」，故應沒有賠償。
澳門格蘭披治大賽車委員會對丘永材撞車事件表示遺憾，並對其家人致以深切慰問。他們並表示澳門特區政府會為運送丘永材遺體返港等事宜、費用提供全力協助。澳門格蘭披治大賽車委員會協調員安棟樑表示，不認為賽道出現問題。對於連續兩天發生車手比賽時身亡事件，大會重申賽道符合安全標準，車手裝備亦符合國際汽聯準則。
Friday, November 16, 2012
Fear Of Tax Hike Causes More Selling
Equity stock market extends the fall from previous week. The fear of fiscal cliff is so widely spread that some wealthy investors are afraid of tax hike for their properties. As a consequence, there is a wave of disposal of equity stocks for cash or equivalent among wealthy investors in which a large proportion is long term investor.
In previous post, it is anticipated that selling would stop after day traders sold out the holdings. But the relay of selling from wealthy investors extends market drop in this week. It appears that the second wave of selling has finished. But market may come up with another selling event. There are plenty of possible news that can drive market lower, such as earnings miss, European debt crisis, US rating downgrade, etc. Therefore although the room for further market drop is not much, there is still uncertainty whether market will decline for the third week.
As mentioned in earlier post, long term investors are most likely the dominant sellers in coming sell-off events. Institutional and individual investors, besides very rich households, are waiting for market bottom. There is symptom that smart investors are beginning to accumulate shares. Market may rebound strongly when selling from wealthy investors ends and cash on the sideline begins to enter market. Nevertheless, market participants should be aware of news that can drive long term investors to dump stocks again.
Why Investors Are Dumping Dividend Stocks
The fear of higher taxes has put a chill on dividend-paying stocks, in what some analysts say could be an overreaction to the "fiscal cliff."
The Bush-era tax cuts on dividends and capital gains, to 15 percent, are in the cross hairs, as congressional leaders and President Barack Obama this week start work on reshaping the tax and spending components of the so-called fiscal cliff.
"If an investor wants yield, and they also want an investment vehicle linked to growth, then dividend stocks would still seem to be a good place to be," said John Stoltzfus, chief market strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management. "In an environment where a market continues to be fairly prone to move from 'risk on' to 'risk off,' it's nice to have an investment to pay you while you wait."
Why Muni Bonds Are Suddenly So Popular
Investors are barreling into municipal bonds, driving yields to record lows and hoping for a safe hiding place at a time when taxes are almost certain to rise.
The charge by investors into the tax-free securities has been creating a surge in demand that is not quite being met by supply and is causing some to question whether the muni bond market could be heading for a bubble.
One trader described the muni market as being at a "high-water mark" for momentum, where this new hunt for tax free investments coincided with typical year-end buying, though some of the insurers and hedge funds appear to be less active. "Mutual funds are getting a lot of money in. That positive cash flow needs to be spent, so I don't believe we're creating a bubble. This isn't speculative money. It's real money chasing after it," he said.
Condon also sees no sign of a bubble, but he is concerned that investors at some point will find themselves overly invested in bonds in general. The ratio of the 10-year triple-A-rated muni Tuesday was 97 percent, meaning that security was paying 97 percent of the equivalent Treasury, well above the long-term average in the low to mid 80s.
U.S. credit rating could again take hit in 2013
In 2011, the United States emerged from a damaging budget battle with a downgrade of its pristine triple-A rating for the first time in history. In 2013, it could be dealt even a bigger blow.
Should that happen, it could have a detrimental effect on the country's cost of borrowing and could also shift some investment away from the United States, though the country's big markets and attractiveness as a safe haven are likely to limit those effects.
When S&P cut the United States last year, markets reacted badly. The benchmark S&P 500 index slumped the Monday following, falling 6.7 percent to an 11-month low.
Paradoxically, U.S. Treasury yields plunged as spooked investors stampeded to safe havens. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 2.32 percent on August 8 from 2.56 percent on August 5 - and is now around 1.6 percent.
That same knee-jerk response could be repeated.
"Investors need to hold billions and billions of dollars," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. "Where else are they going to go? Noise out of a rating agency is not going to change that."
In previous post, it is anticipated that selling would stop after day traders sold out the holdings. But the relay of selling from wealthy investors extends market drop in this week. It appears that the second wave of selling has finished. But market may come up with another selling event. There are plenty of possible news that can drive market lower, such as earnings miss, European debt crisis, US rating downgrade, etc. Therefore although the room for further market drop is not much, there is still uncertainty whether market will decline for the third week.
As mentioned in earlier post, long term investors are most likely the dominant sellers in coming sell-off events. Institutional and individual investors, besides very rich households, are waiting for market bottom. There is symptom that smart investors are beginning to accumulate shares. Market may rebound strongly when selling from wealthy investors ends and cash on the sideline begins to enter market. Nevertheless, market participants should be aware of news that can drive long term investors to dump stocks again.
Why Investors Are Dumping Dividend Stocks
The fear of higher taxes has put a chill on dividend-paying stocks, in what some analysts say could be an overreaction to the "fiscal cliff."
The Bush-era tax cuts on dividends and capital gains, to 15 percent, are in the cross hairs, as congressional leaders and President Barack Obama this week start work on reshaping the tax and spending components of the so-called fiscal cliff.
"If an investor wants yield, and they also want an investment vehicle linked to growth, then dividend stocks would still seem to be a good place to be," said John Stoltzfus, chief market strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management. "In an environment where a market continues to be fairly prone to move from 'risk on' to 'risk off,' it's nice to have an investment to pay you while you wait."
Why Muni Bonds Are Suddenly So Popular
Investors are barreling into municipal bonds, driving yields to record lows and hoping for a safe hiding place at a time when taxes are almost certain to rise.
The charge by investors into the tax-free securities has been creating a surge in demand that is not quite being met by supply and is causing some to question whether the muni bond market could be heading for a bubble.
One trader described the muni market as being at a "high-water mark" for momentum, where this new hunt for tax free investments coincided with typical year-end buying, though some of the insurers and hedge funds appear to be less active. "Mutual funds are getting a lot of money in. That positive cash flow needs to be spent, so I don't believe we're creating a bubble. This isn't speculative money. It's real money chasing after it," he said.
Condon also sees no sign of a bubble, but he is concerned that investors at some point will find themselves overly invested in bonds in general. The ratio of the 10-year triple-A-rated muni Tuesday was 97 percent, meaning that security was paying 97 percent of the equivalent Treasury, well above the long-term average in the low to mid 80s.
U.S. credit rating could again take hit in 2013
In 2011, the United States emerged from a damaging budget battle with a downgrade of its pristine triple-A rating for the first time in history. In 2013, it could be dealt even a bigger blow.
Should that happen, it could have a detrimental effect on the country's cost of borrowing and could also shift some investment away from the United States, though the country's big markets and attractiveness as a safe haven are likely to limit those effects.
When S&P cut the United States last year, markets reacted badly. The benchmark S&P 500 index slumped the Monday following, falling 6.7 percent to an 11-month low.
Paradoxically, U.S. Treasury yields plunged as spooked investors stampeded to safe havens. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 2.32 percent on August 8 from 2.56 percent on August 5 - and is now around 1.6 percent.
That same knee-jerk response could be repeated.
"Investors need to hold billions and billions of dollars," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. "Where else are they going to go? Noise out of a rating agency is not going to change that."
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
每秒運算17.6億次 超腦「泰坦」最強 (原載《星島日報》)
【星島日報報道】美國能源部旗下橡樹嶺國家實驗室的超級電腦「泰坦」（Titan），以每秒十七點五九千萬億次的運算速度，登上超級電腦排行榜「TOP500」榜首，成為全球最快的超級電腦。
「泰坦」佔地面積與標準籃球場相若，消耗的電力足以供應一個小城鎮，它擁有五十六萬多個處理器，今後將用於氣候變化、可再生能源以及核能研究的模擬計算。
「TOP500」是全球最權威的超級電腦排行榜，由一九九三年起每年兩次公布全球最快五百部超級電腦的排名。曾在二○一○年排名第一的中國「天河-1A」今次已跌落第八位。
「泰坦」佔地面積與標準籃球場相若，消耗的電力足以供應一個小城鎮，它擁有五十六萬多個處理器，今後將用於氣候變化、可再生能源以及核能研究的模擬計算。
「TOP500」是全球最權威的超級電腦排行榜，由一九九三年起每年兩次公布全球最快五百部超級電腦的排名。曾在二○一○年排名第一的中國「天河-1A」今次已跌落第八位。
Monday, November 12, 2012
網上騙案大幅上升 (原載《星島日報》)
警方表示，互聯網騙案大幅上升，尤其是利用電郵騙案和網上拍賣的案件。
警方指出，今年首9個月，共接獲2100宗科技罪案舉報，當中超過1400宗屬於網上騙案，網上騙案較去年同期上升近2倍，涉及的金額更增加4倍。其中網上拍賣的騙案有500多宗，涉及金額405萬元。除買家付款後收不到貨品，亦有一些賣家出售貨物後收不到錢。
另外，利用電郵的騙案亦大幅上升，很多時騙徒收集受害人資料後，進一步行騙。商業罪案調查科總督察孔慶勳表示，在網上騙案中，較嚴重的案件包括電郵騙案，有受害公司被騙將款額匯到海外戶口。
警方指出，今年首9個月，共接獲2100宗科技罪案舉報，當中超過1400宗屬於網上騙案，網上騙案較去年同期上升近2倍，涉及的金額更增加4倍。其中網上拍賣的騙案有500多宗，涉及金額405萬元。除買家付款後收不到貨品，亦有一些賣家出售貨物後收不到錢。
另外，利用電郵的騙案亦大幅上升，很多時騙徒收集受害人資料後，進一步行騙。商業罪案調查科總督察孔慶勳表示，在網上騙案中，較嚴重的案件包括電郵騙案，有受害公司被騙將款額匯到海外戶口。
Friday, November 9, 2012
Fiscal Cliff' Fear Sinks Stocks
Equity stock market sank for two days after election day. After the drop, market sentiment is still low as fear of fiscal cliff remains a dominant factor for market direction.
Traders and market manipulators pushed market down after president election. Despite a significant drop in broad market index, market participants are not selling in panic. Institutional and individual investors are especially calm while day traders are selling in a herd. Although market has dropped below the level when long term investors took profit before the Federal Reserve announcement of open-ended MBS buying program, there is no symptom that long term investors are taking profit again on market fear.
Since institutional and individual investors are waiting for market bottom and long term investors are still patient on market, day traders will finish selling soon. There is much speculation on market swing. The outlook for market is strong because of ample liquidity and low interest rate environment. market participants can make use of this opportunity to strengthen the portfolio for short term trading or long term appreciation.
Awaiting the End of Uncertainty? Don’t Hold Your Breath
A well worn adage about Wall Street suggests that markets can adjust to almost any circumstance, as long there are no surprises. "We don't like the idea of higher taxes," investors often say, "but we can deal with it (within reason) as long as you leave things alone after that."
Not only will any changes in the balance of power in the House and/or Senate have a major impact on the tone and outcome of lame duck session negotiations to address the fiscal cliff, but would also completely alter the agenda of the first two years for the next President.
Add in another election in Greece on Wednesday that could rekindle fears of a Eurozone breakup, as well as the start of China's 18th National Party Congress on Thursday, and it's conceivable that worries from beyond our borders could begin to intrude upon investors again too.
So as much as tomorrow's voting is set to mark the end of some uncertainty, if you're expecting markets to suddenly move into the HOV-lane and burst higher, you're sure to be disappointed. Politics are clearly a factor, but ultimately, it's earnings that matter most to Wall Street.
Beware of 'Trap Door' for Stocks: Pro
Investors should brace themselves for a sharp drop in stocks following a rally that started in June and moved towards a peak following the announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States, David Murrin, CEO at Emergent Asset Management said on Tuesday.
"There seems to be an assumption that because of QE3 and a program from the ECB that there is no downside risk to equity markets. If you look at leading stocks and the way that the S&P and the Dow have been trading there is the risk of a trap door to the downside and that's something people have ignored." Murrin added that he was skeptical about U.S. equities' ability to continue rising.
"I have a downside bias and in my opinion you should sell corrections to the upside. I think the downside could be very aggressive. People are very biased to the upside and have been complacent when it comes to Western stock markets," Murrin said.
Obama win has U.S. investors staring at fiscal cliff
U.S. investors will hit trading floors this morning with the same president and the same problems in gridlocked Washington. First up: a looming budget crisis that could send the U.S. economy reeling.
Steven Englander, Citigroup's head of G10 foreign exchange strategy, said markets could panic toward yearend if it looks as though no deal is imminent to avoid the fiscal cliff.
If that happens, investors will think twice about lending the U.S. government money at low interest rates, which would strain the economy, widen the deficit and hurt the dollar. It also raises the possibility that major credit-rating agencies will cut the U.S. debt rating.
Why US May Be Headed for Another Recession
All the problems investors face-from a fiscal meltdown to the various economic woes around the world-add up to one daunting prospect: Another possible recession just over the horizon.
As the financial world puts Tuesday's presidential election behind it, the light in the tunnel could be an economic freight train.
In the week prior to the election, investors pulled cash both from stocks and bonds. Equity-based mutual funds lost $1.4 billion while bond funds saw outflows of $895 million, according to Lipper fund flow data.
Continued accommodation from Federal Reserve monetary policy has been the antidote to fear of risk.
This week's market drop "does reflect real worry about the fiscal cliff" but "we view this as anxiety as an opportunity to buy, not sell," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group.
"We have a situation where the range of outcomes is extremely wide," he said. "What that tells me from an investing standpoint is that we have to be fully diversified right now. I would not be taking concentrated bets across any asset class."
For Baum, the most important thing for investors to watch is not letting their emotions overcome their choices. He thinks Washington will come to a resolution that, at some point, will placate markets.
"You can't keep kicking things down the road," he said. "Once you get more certainty you get markets that will react and act more like markets, as opposed to emotional roller coasters."
Traders and market manipulators pushed market down after president election. Despite a significant drop in broad market index, market participants are not selling in panic. Institutional and individual investors are especially calm while day traders are selling in a herd. Although market has dropped below the level when long term investors took profit before the Federal Reserve announcement of open-ended MBS buying program, there is no symptom that long term investors are taking profit again on market fear.
Since institutional and individual investors are waiting for market bottom and long term investors are still patient on market, day traders will finish selling soon. There is much speculation on market swing. The outlook for market is strong because of ample liquidity and low interest rate environment. market participants can make use of this opportunity to strengthen the portfolio for short term trading or long term appreciation.
Awaiting the End of Uncertainty? Don’t Hold Your Breath
A well worn adage about Wall Street suggests that markets can adjust to almost any circumstance, as long there are no surprises. "We don't like the idea of higher taxes," investors often say, "but we can deal with it (within reason) as long as you leave things alone after that."
Not only will any changes in the balance of power in the House and/or Senate have a major impact on the tone and outcome of lame duck session negotiations to address the fiscal cliff, but would also completely alter the agenda of the first two years for the next President.
Add in another election in Greece on Wednesday that could rekindle fears of a Eurozone breakup, as well as the start of China's 18th National Party Congress on Thursday, and it's conceivable that worries from beyond our borders could begin to intrude upon investors again too.
So as much as tomorrow's voting is set to mark the end of some uncertainty, if you're expecting markets to suddenly move into the HOV-lane and burst higher, you're sure to be disappointed. Politics are clearly a factor, but ultimately, it's earnings that matter most to Wall Street.
Beware of 'Trap Door' for Stocks: Pro
Investors should brace themselves for a sharp drop in stocks following a rally that started in June and moved towards a peak following the announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States, David Murrin, CEO at Emergent Asset Management said on Tuesday.
"There seems to be an assumption that because of QE3 and a program from the ECB that there is no downside risk to equity markets. If you look at leading stocks and the way that the S&P and the Dow have been trading there is the risk of a trap door to the downside and that's something people have ignored." Murrin added that he was skeptical about U.S. equities' ability to continue rising.
"I have a downside bias and in my opinion you should sell corrections to the upside. I think the downside could be very aggressive. People are very biased to the upside and have been complacent when it comes to Western stock markets," Murrin said.
Obama win has U.S. investors staring at fiscal cliff
U.S. investors will hit trading floors this morning with the same president and the same problems in gridlocked Washington. First up: a looming budget crisis that could send the U.S. economy reeling.
Steven Englander, Citigroup's head of G10 foreign exchange strategy, said markets could panic toward yearend if it looks as though no deal is imminent to avoid the fiscal cliff.
If that happens, investors will think twice about lending the U.S. government money at low interest rates, which would strain the economy, widen the deficit and hurt the dollar. It also raises the possibility that major credit-rating agencies will cut the U.S. debt rating.
Why US May Be Headed for Another Recession
All the problems investors face-from a fiscal meltdown to the various economic woes around the world-add up to one daunting prospect: Another possible recession just over the horizon.
As the financial world puts Tuesday's presidential election behind it, the light in the tunnel could be an economic freight train.
In the week prior to the election, investors pulled cash both from stocks and bonds. Equity-based mutual funds lost $1.4 billion while bond funds saw outflows of $895 million, according to Lipper fund flow data.
Continued accommodation from Federal Reserve monetary policy has been the antidote to fear of risk.
This week's market drop "does reflect real worry about the fiscal cliff" but "we view this as anxiety as an opportunity to buy, not sell," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group.
"We have a situation where the range of outcomes is extremely wide," he said. "What that tells me from an investing standpoint is that we have to be fully diversified right now. I would not be taking concentrated bets across any asset class."
For Baum, the most important thing for investors to watch is not letting their emotions overcome their choices. He thinks Washington will come to a resolution that, at some point, will placate markets.
"You can't keep kicking things down the road," he said. "Once you get more certainty you get markets that will react and act more like markets, as opposed to emotional roller coasters."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)