Friday, March 11, 2011

Equity Stock Consolidation

Equity stock market is consolidating the gain after two years from bottom on March 2009. Broad market indexes record peak level after financial crisis. Market participants are striving to interpret market direction on diversified perspective. Wealth effect makes people feel more comfortable holding equity stocks. Traders are speculating on market news. Hedge funds are attempting to move market downward with orderly selling. Some individual investors take profit on fear of massive correction while some individual investors see pullback as opportunity to strength the portfolio. Institutional investors are structuring the portfolio to prepare for the next move. Market participants are speculating the end of Federal Reserve bond buying program which is also known as "QE2".

Trading volume indicates that investors are still very cautious on equity stock market. Although the majority of market participants are holding stocks on long term asset appreciation and/or dividend, the fear of market meltdown will lock up the portfolio. Therefore during the consolidation period, speculators are day trading for risk profit.

Stock performance are resilient to political crisis and natural disaster. There is pullback but the magnitude is small because there is no panic selling and it is quickly snapped up as bargain by hungry investors with ample liquidity. When hedge fund selling stops, market is likely to resume a slow uptrend with a trickle of buying from individual investors who are lagging behind in the stock recovery.

The end of bond buying program in June would be a milestone in the equity stock market. Some market participants interpret as a turning point in market movement after the two-year rally. Some individual investors, especially those suffering from significant loss on panic selling during the financial crisis, remain in the money market. They are watching the rally but have not participated. With inflation expectation and low interest rate, they are tempted to take risk to grow their wealth. Some of them have already allocated real estate investment in the portfolio. The return of small individual investors last October has driven the rally which currently pauses for consolidation. When more individual investors switch from money market to equity stock market, the increased participation will drive market further. But currently the wealth effect is not enough to attract those frightened investors back to the equity stock market although they are dissatisfied with the low return of money and bond market.

The speculative trading portfolio has net long holding. Due to the small size of the portfolio and cost of hedging, there is not much hedging on the positions to protect against unfavorable market movement. Considering the leverage of the trading portfolio and the aggressiveness of trading strategy, the risk exposure is quite high. Even worst, the trading skill is not up to expected standard for a sustainable trader. Nevertheless, market provides opportunities to practise and acquire knowledge for profitable trades. A larger portfolio will provide room to restrict leveraging which is currently needed to overcome the trading overhead.

Market is flat ending this week. But it is volatile and the oscillations provide opportunities for swing trading. The speculative trading portfolio correctly speculated many of market movement cycles. However it lacked the skills to determine the most favorable entry and exit point. It can be understood that timing the market is difficult. As long as a successful trade is profitable and the majority of trade is successful, missing the optimum execution point is acceptable. However, the importance of trade execution timing is not just to maximize profit for a successful trade, but also to minimize loss for an unsuccessful trade as well.





For Traders Only: Lessons From Investor and Author Nicolas Darvas
Nicolas Darvas has inspired traders for many generations. His book, How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market is one that you'll find on many recommended reading lists.
•There are no good or bad stocks. There are only stocks that rise in price and stocks that decline in price, and that price is based on the laws of supply and demand in the marketplace.
•Losses are tuition on Wall Street. Learn from them.
•You should expect to be wrong half of the time. Your goal is to lose as little as possible when you are.
•Most of your big failures will come from three things: 1) when you abandon your rules, 2) you become overconfident, and 3) trade in despair when unsuccessful.
•The best speculators search only for the very best opportunities. To be truly successful, you must wait for the right opportunities to present themselves and this often means doing nothing for long periods of time.
•The market behaves the way it does due to participants behaving the way they do. No one knows what they will do until they actually do it.
•It is difficult to be profitable on the short side of the market versus the long side -- trading in rising or bull markets will give you the best chance for success.
•Concentrate your trades. At the peak of his success, Darvas would hold only five to eight stocks at one time which was in contrast to his earlier days when he was overtrading and would hold up to 30 stocks at a time.
•Perfection has no role in successful trading. No one can buy at the absolute lowest price and sell at the highest price. No time or effort should be devoted to that goal. "I never bought a stock at the low or sold one at the high in my life. I am satisfied to be along for most of the ride."
•Be aggressive when warranted. Darvas believed in making aggressive trades when his system pointed to a great trade. In fact, sometimes 50% of his capital was devoted to just one stock.


2 years after market low, the little guy is back
As a historic bull market reaches its second birthday, everyday investors are piling back into stocks, finally ready for more risk and hoping the rally has further to go.

More job security, strengthening retirement account balances and improvement in the overall U.S. economy are some of the factors that have brought everyday investors back to the market.

While the economy is improving, it will take a lot longer to erase the abject fear that average investors have felt about owning stocks the last two years, says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist for Strategas Research Partners in New York.

One reason to set aside their reservations: They can't find a better place to stash their money. The bull market in bonds has ended, money-market accounts are returning 1 percent or less, and the average two-year CD earns no more than 1.5 percent.

As a result, many investors returning to the market are tiptoeing back in. They're buying what Trennert calls "stocks that look like bonds" -- dividend-paying blue chips that they hope will hedge their risk by guaranteeing at least a dividend payout.

There are plenty of investors still looking for an opportunity to get back in. Kenneth Kracmer, who owns a marketing firm in Dallas, is restless after cutting his stock allocation by half, to 30 percent.

When Your Money is the Dumb Money
By now you have probably heard about the growing evidence that "dumb money" is entering the market. The dumb money is not my term, by the way; it's how Wall Street refers to individual investors who repeatedly sell stocks at a low price, only to turn around later and buy them for high prices.

Investor Lessons As Bull Market Turns Two
On the two-year anniversary of the start of the bull market this week, it's worthwhile for investors to pause and reflect on some of the lessons we've learned since the great financial crisis of 2008 and early 2009.

Older retirees and many investors had sold that January or February, at what we know now was precisely the wrong time to get out of the market. The pain of seeing their life's savings depleted in investment statements month after month after month had just become too great.

The lessons for investors should not be forgotten. Buy-and-hold investment strategies did not survive for decades because they were fads. Investors who didn't sell and held on — indeed, continued to dollar-cost average — did quite well over the last few years.


After historic gains, are stocks nearing a bubble?
After two bubbles in the past 10 years -- tech stocks and real estate -- investors are suspicious of consistent gains that seem too good to be true. Some worry that the Fed's dramatic measures to pump up the economy mean the market's gains are an illusion. But a range of measurements suggest the market isn't in the midst of a bubble now. Instead, the stock market may simply be back to normal.

"The last two years were the great giveaway," says Stephen Lieber, the chief investment officer responsible for $6 billion in assets at Alpine Mutual Funds. Stocks had fallen so low during the panic that anyone who bought stocks on March 9, 2009, received a once-in-a-lifetime deal, he says. Caterpillar Inc., for instance, closed below $24 that day. It's now above $100.

While stock prices are much higher than they were two years ago, Bob Doll, market strategist for asset-management giant BlackRock, says investors aren't irrationally optimistic.

Corporations are expected to make record profits this year and have enough cash -- $2 trillion -- to pay bigger dividends and start buying back shares of stock, both of which make stocks more valuable.

"Corporate balance sheets haven't been in better shape over the last 200 years, period," says Joe Davis, the chief economist at fund giant Vanguard.


March buying advice: Buyers have power, but how much?
There's no question that it's a buyers market, with prices continuing to dip in the majority of U.S. metropolitan areas.

More Borrowers Underwater: Why We Should Care
"Negative equity holds millions of borrowers captive in their homes, unable to move or sell their properties," notes CoreLogic's chief economist Mark Fleming.

My concern is that the more borrowers in a negative equity position, the more may intentionally default on their loans in order to try for principal write down.


More people are buying their homes with cash
The number of homes bought with cash jumped to 32% in January compared to 26% a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Of course, many cash sales involve investors. There is such a glut of foreclosures on the market that they can snap them up cheap and not have to worry about interest or payments.


Stocks lift household wealth; companies amass cash
Americans are spending more of their growing wealth. The economy still needs companies to do the same.

Still lacking the confidence to spend at normal levels, businesses have stockpiled nearly $1.9 trillion in cash, a record, the government said Thursday.

The same report, based on data from the last three months of last year, showed households are further rebuilding the wealth they lost in the recession. Americans' net worth grew 3.8 percent, mostly thanks to the rising stock market.

The vast majority of people who have 401(k) retirement savings accounts now have more money in their accounts than at the market peak in October 2007, according to estimates by Jack VanDerhei of the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington. While the market is still well below its peak, most people have kept putting money in those accounts.


Billionaire Carl Icahn returns $1.76B to investors
On the eve of the bull market's second anniversary, billionaire investor Carl Icahn had an unsettling message for his investors: Take your money back.

In his letter, Icahn said he was bothered by the losses the funds incurred in 2008 and the fact that many of the investors withdrew large amounts of cash at the time.

Park said that such flight of capital hurts their longer term strategies since they need to have ample capital on hand to manage an activist campaign, which can run as long as two or three years.


A Deep Freeze Hits Muni-Bond Market
Municipal-bond issuance is on pace for its lowest quarter in at least 11 years following a rush of borrowing late last year and as government borrowers struggle to get their budgets in order.

Got (More) Stimulus? Bill Gross Doesn't Think the Economy Is "Self-Sustaining"
The U.S. economy grew at roughly 3% in the fourth quarter of 2010, the stock market is in the midst of a massive two-year rally and, while still high, the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since April 2009.

PIMCO's Bill Gross isn't convinced. The so-called Bond King, whose firm manages more than $1.2 trillion in assets, is concerned the economy will stagger when the Fed pulls the plug on its QE2 program at the end of June.


Treasuries "Most Overvalued" Bonds, Bill Gross Says: Beware End of QE2
This week marks the 2-year anniversary of the 2009 stock market bottom, but there's little celebrating among retail investors. General speaking, individual investors fled from the stock market in 2008 and 2009 for the perceived safety of the bond market, a trend which didn't abate until late 2010.

In his recent writings, Gross says June 30 could be "D-Day" for the Treasury market - "a day fraught with hope for victory, but fueled with immediate uncertainty and fear as to what would happen in the short term."


PIMCO Total Return dumps U.S. government-related debt
The world's largest bond fund has gone ultra bearish on the United States, dumping all of its U.S. government-related debt holdings.

Gross, as with many other investors, has raised red flags over demand for Treasuries when the U.S. central bank ends its controversial quantitative easing program.

PIMCO may have plans for how it will put its cash holdings to work. In a December regulatory filing the Total Return fund said it may start investing up to 10 percent of its assets in "equity-related" securities, such as convertibles and preferred stock, after the first quarter of 2011.


Gross: Why Pimco Dumped Treasurys From Biggest Fund
"It's not a question of dissing the United States or questioning the credit of the United States, but simply a maturity reflection," Gross said. Treasurys are "mispriced relative to the inflationary environment and the growth we see ahead and there are better alternatives in order to capture yield."

Gross primarily based his evaluation on the reduction in yields caused by the Federal Reserve's buying of close to $2 trillion in Treasurys, with more slated before the second leg of the program-often called QE 2-comes to an end.


Bill Gross: "Of Course" the Wealthy Should Pay Higher Taxes, Corporations Too
"Of course we should" pay higher taxes, Gross says. "Higher income groups have enjoyed an enormous privilege ever since the Reagan tax cuts...and actually ever since Kennedy began the process back in the ‘60s."

Gross admits it's difficult to know what constitutes "wealthy" in America or what federal income tax rate serves as a disincentive to those at the top of the food chain. "But I don't think it's 36%," he says. "I think high-income earners would work well into the 50% tax rate. That would certainly help balance the books going forward."

In addition to tax hikes on the wealthy, "let's raise corporate taxes too," the famed bond fund manager says, a view that runs in direct opposition to the current discussions in Washington.


World's richest are almost $1 trillion richer
The global ranks of billionaires grew by 199 people in the past year,

The number of people on Forbes' list climbed to 1,210 billionaires, setting a record with combined wealth of $4.5 trillion, up from $3.6 trillion a year ago. While the biggest slice of that wealth, $1.5 trillion, is controlled by people in the U.S., the publication said more than half of the new billionaires came from Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Overall, Forbes said 648 of the billionaires' wealth increased in the past year, while 160 of the world's wealthiest had declining fortunes. The rest were unchanged.


Factories having trouble finding skilled workers
You might think that it would be easier for manufacturers to find new employees. After all, the number of workers employed in factories is still more than 2 million lower than pre-recession levels due to layoffs or plant closings.

But experts in manufacturing staffing say that many of the factory workers who find themselves without a job simply don't have the specialized skills now in short supply.

And while it might only take about a year of training for a person to get the skills they need, many blue collar workers aren't eager to try and find a new job in manufacturing after already being laid off.

"The perception out there is that we're losing manufacturing jobs to China and India. So if they've already been displaced and they're going to go back to school, they're going for something not manufacturing-related," said Rob Clark.

Clark said he's also having trouble finding skilled workers. Other manufacturers say they are getting plenty of applications when they post jobs, but in most cases it's not from people with the most relevant experience to work in the factories.

Jonas Prising, Manpower's president of the Americas, said a big part of the problem is the reluctance of students and other young job seekers to even consider pursuing trades because of worries that the manufacturing sector is doomed.

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