Thursday, March 31, 2011
報 道 指 Prada 已 申 請 來 港 上 市
道 瓊 斯 通 訊 社 引 述 消 息 人 士 報 道 ， 意 大 利 時 尚 品 牌 Prada 本 周 三 經 已 向 港 交 所 提 交 上 市 申 請 。
消 息 說 ， Prada 計 劃 發 售 20% 股 權 ， 公 司 估 值 約 70-80 億 歐 元 。
截 至 1 月 底 的 財 政 年 度 ， Prada 銷 售 額 達 到 創 紀 錄 的 20.5 億 歐 元 。 利 息 、 稅 項 、 折 舊 、 攤 銷 前 收 益 (EBITDA)5.359 億 歐 元 。
有 分 析 員 認 為 ， Prada 在 香 港 上 市 的 市 值 可 能 較 故 鄉 米 蘭 高 ， 原 因 是 亞 洲 投 資 者 更 看 好 奢 侈 品 市 場 的 增 長 潛 能 。
消 息 說 ， Prada 計 劃 發 售 20% 股 權 ， 公 司 估 值 約 70-80 億 歐 元 。
截 至 1 月 底 的 財 政 年 度 ， Prada 銷 售 額 達 到 創 紀 錄 的 20.5 億 歐 元 。 利 息 、 稅 項 、 折 舊 、 攤 銷 前 收 益 (EBITDA)5.359 億 歐 元 。
有 分 析 員 認 為 ， Prada 在 香 港 上 市 的 市 值 可 能 較 故 鄉 米 蘭 高 ， 原 因 是 亞 洲 投 資 者 更 看 好 奢 侈 品 市 場 的 增 長 潛 能 。
Friday, March 25, 2011
Equity Stock Market Crawls Back Towards Recent High While Investors Remain Cautious
Equity stock market recovered some of the loss after Japan earthquake. Investors are looking for bargain while being cautious. The flow of capital to Japanese stocks indicates that investors are hoarding cash and hungry for opportunities. When market drops, trading volume usually increases slightly and the buying orders from day traders and individual investors help to slow down the decline. When market stabilizes, they will take profit and wait for another opportunity. Investors are very cautious and patient for buying opportunity with cash.
Hedge funds appear to be finished with selling. Individual investors still have lots of cash for any buying opportunity. Some individual investors still remain fully in the money and bond market after the financial crisis. The fear/hope of another bottom does not materialize and their confidence and desire to invest in equity stock market remains low. The group is locking up a significant portion of household capital from the equity stock market. Thus current trading volume is less than during the early stage of the rally when active investors are buying aggressively while active investors are only buying cautiously now.
Black Swans Now a Regular Part of Market Landscape
For global financial markets, once-in-a-lifetime events are happening with such regularity that black swans may as well be white swans.
The problem is, when these events happen, investors often can't get out of their own way, zigging when they should zag and zagging when they should zig.
Protests and government overthrows in the Middle East first upset the market's rally off the March 2009 lows back in February, and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan-both "highly improbable events"-have caused havoc with investor psychology in recent days. Reaction, though, has been predictable. Investors have shed risk assets like stocks and have flocked toward the safety of US Treasurys.
That could be a precisely the wrong reaction.
"It's a buying opportunity here, actually," says Michael Cohn, chief investment strategist at Global Arena Investment Management in New York. "This is an opportunity to kind of shuffle things around and buy things that are going down."
Stock Market Is Only Halfway Through Bull Run: Birinyi
As many other market pros await a pullback, Birinyi, head of Birinyi Associates, anticipates that the market will continue the rally that began off the March 2009 lows.
The surge paused last summer but has run full steam until the violence in Libya and the crisis in Japan interrupted it over the past month.
"There's always been arguments-it's too quick, there's not enough breadth, there's not enough volume, we're due for a correction," Birinyi said. "The problem with so much of this is it's opinion and commentary."
There also is worry that the rally is propelled solely by cash injections provided from the Federal Reserve that will run out in June.
"The good news is nobody's all in, because everybody's worried about all these tail risks, so that could fuel your rally," said Barry Sternlicht, CEO of Starwood Capital. "But when I look at the state of this country's balance sheet we're on this morphine of spending that we cannot keep doing. So the patient feels real good, but it's not sustainable."
"The Two-Tier Recovery": Why Most People Are Not Feeling It, Gary Shilling Explains
The U.S. has been in official recovery mode since June 2009. But, with millions of Americans still without work and a housing market that continues to take a beating, you may not know that things are looking up.
There’s a reason for that disconnect, says economist Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co: The U.S. is experiencing a “two-tiered recovery” that consists of the haves and have-nots.
Lessons learned from 4 years of 401(k) volatility
Americans who were afraid to open their 401(k) statements during the recession are finding good news inside the envelope now: For the most part, their accounts have come all the way back and then some.
One lesson of the past four years for retirement investors is the importance of sticking with a strategy instead of trying to anticipate the direction of the market, says Brian Wagenbach, branch manager for the Charles Schwab offices in Minneapolis.
"Not letting your investment strategy be driven by fear and greed, but opportunity and fundamentals clearly is a winning strategy," he says.
Japan a "buying opportunity," will recover: Buffett
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett believes Japan's devastating earthquake is the kind of extraordinary event that creates a buying opportunity for shares in Japanese companies.
Investors flock to Japanese stocks after quake
Investors are flocking to Japanese stocks in the wake of the costliest natural disaster in history.
Exchange-traded funds that hold Japanese stocks brought in a record $1.2 billion the week after a devastating earthquake and tsunami hit Japan and caused the worst nuclear crisis since the Chernobyl disaster, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. The inflow to Japanese funds represented a jump of nearly a fifth of total assets.
The rash of buying of Japanese stocks came after the country's benchmark Nikkei 225 index, the equivalent to the Dow Jones industrial average, fell 16 percent over two days in panic-driven selling, reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The index bounced back nearly as quickly, jumping 5.6 percent on March 16 and 4.3 percent on March 22.
For real estate, a giant spring clearance sale
Existing home sales plunged nearly 10 percent in February to their lowest level in nine years. It was the largest drop since July. Forty percent of those sales were on distressed properties. And new home sales are on track to come in at just 250,000 this year, the fewest since the Kennedy administration, when there were 120 million fewer people in the United States.
The buying that is happening isn't coming from first-time home buyers. A recent study by Capital Economics found that 60 percent of sales are to foreigners and investors, most of them paying cash. In fact, in international real estate circles, the U.S. is viewed as the "new emerging market," says Thomas M. Shapiro, president of global real estate investment firm GTIS Partners.
Hedge funds appear to be finished with selling. Individual investors still have lots of cash for any buying opportunity. Some individual investors still remain fully in the money and bond market after the financial crisis. The fear/hope of another bottom does not materialize and their confidence and desire to invest in equity stock market remains low. The group is locking up a significant portion of household capital from the equity stock market. Thus current trading volume is less than during the early stage of the rally when active investors are buying aggressively while active investors are only buying cautiously now.
Black Swans Now a Regular Part of Market Landscape
For global financial markets, once-in-a-lifetime events are happening with such regularity that black swans may as well be white swans.
The problem is, when these events happen, investors often can't get out of their own way, zigging when they should zag and zagging when they should zig.
Protests and government overthrows in the Middle East first upset the market's rally off the March 2009 lows back in February, and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan-both "highly improbable events"-have caused havoc with investor psychology in recent days. Reaction, though, has been predictable. Investors have shed risk assets like stocks and have flocked toward the safety of US Treasurys.
That could be a precisely the wrong reaction.
"It's a buying opportunity here, actually," says Michael Cohn, chief investment strategist at Global Arena Investment Management in New York. "This is an opportunity to kind of shuffle things around and buy things that are going down."
Stock Market Is Only Halfway Through Bull Run: Birinyi
As many other market pros await a pullback, Birinyi, head of Birinyi Associates, anticipates that the market will continue the rally that began off the March 2009 lows.
The surge paused last summer but has run full steam until the violence in Libya and the crisis in Japan interrupted it over the past month.
"There's always been arguments-it's too quick, there's not enough breadth, there's not enough volume, we're due for a correction," Birinyi said. "The problem with so much of this is it's opinion and commentary."
There also is worry that the rally is propelled solely by cash injections provided from the Federal Reserve that will run out in June.
"The good news is nobody's all in, because everybody's worried about all these tail risks, so that could fuel your rally," said Barry Sternlicht, CEO of Starwood Capital. "But when I look at the state of this country's balance sheet we're on this morphine of spending that we cannot keep doing. So the patient feels real good, but it's not sustainable."
"The Two-Tier Recovery": Why Most People Are Not Feeling It, Gary Shilling Explains
The U.S. has been in official recovery mode since June 2009. But, with millions of Americans still without work and a housing market that continues to take a beating, you may not know that things are looking up.
There’s a reason for that disconnect, says economist Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co: The U.S. is experiencing a “two-tiered recovery” that consists of the haves and have-nots.
Lessons learned from 4 years of 401(k) volatility
Americans who were afraid to open their 401(k) statements during the recession are finding good news inside the envelope now: For the most part, their accounts have come all the way back and then some.
One lesson of the past four years for retirement investors is the importance of sticking with a strategy instead of trying to anticipate the direction of the market, says Brian Wagenbach, branch manager for the Charles Schwab offices in Minneapolis.
"Not letting your investment strategy be driven by fear and greed, but opportunity and fundamentals clearly is a winning strategy," he says.
Japan a "buying opportunity," will recover: Buffett
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett believes Japan's devastating earthquake is the kind of extraordinary event that creates a buying opportunity for shares in Japanese companies.
Investors flock to Japanese stocks after quake
Investors are flocking to Japanese stocks in the wake of the costliest natural disaster in history.
Exchange-traded funds that hold Japanese stocks brought in a record $1.2 billion the week after a devastating earthquake and tsunami hit Japan and caused the worst nuclear crisis since the Chernobyl disaster, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. The inflow to Japanese funds represented a jump of nearly a fifth of total assets.
The rash of buying of Japanese stocks came after the country's benchmark Nikkei 225 index, the equivalent to the Dow Jones industrial average, fell 16 percent over two days in panic-driven selling, reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The index bounced back nearly as quickly, jumping 5.6 percent on March 16 and 4.3 percent on March 22.
For real estate, a giant spring clearance sale
Existing home sales plunged nearly 10 percent in February to their lowest level in nine years. It was the largest drop since July. Forty percent of those sales were on distressed properties. And new home sales are on track to come in at just 250,000 this year, the fewest since the Kennedy administration, when there were 120 million fewer people in the United States.
The buying that is happening isn't coming from first-time home buyers. A recent study by Capital Economics found that 60 percent of sales are to foreigners and investors, most of them paying cash. In fact, in international real estate circles, the U.S. is viewed as the "new emerging market," says Thomas M. Shapiro, president of global real estate investment firm GTIS Partners.
太古城呎價1.2萬元刷新高
(星島日報綜合報道) 樓市氣氛稍為回穩，二手即頻錄高價成交，龍頭屋苑太古城一個千多方呎海景戶，以一千四百多萬元成交，每方呎達一萬二千五百多元，打破該屋苑標準分層戶呎價新高紀錄；另一邊廂，中環商廈租金亦高處未算高，頂級甲廈國際金融中心一個單位，剛以每方呎逾一百八十元承租，刷新甲廈海嘯後新高呎租。
買家睇中「風水屋」
美聯分行區域經理施衍銘表示，太古城金楓閣高層G室，面積一千一百三十七方呎，單位連租約以一千四百二十八萬元售出，呎價一萬二千五百五十九元，打破該屋苑今年一月創下的舊紀錄。該名買家是太古城業主，篤信命理，在屋苑內參觀同類型單位僅一星期，已積極跟業主「埋枱傾」，他認為該單位是「風水屋」，故沒有議價，爽快出價達業主放盤價一千四百二十八萬元，經過兩天的洽談，成功購入。
他又說，由於該物業估價僅一千三百五十萬元，買家要自行「抬錢上會」，幸而他本身資金充足，只需要做五成按揭，沒有上會壓力。對於購入單位後自住或投資用，則尚未有決定。
該單位原業主非常長情，持有約二十七年之久，沽出單位帳面勁賺一千三百四十八萬元。至於該屋苑現時標準戶呎價次高，為紫樺閣高層H室，於今年一月，以每方呎一萬二千四百三十三元成交。
藍籌屋苑呎價見新高，中環頂級甲廈國金中心呎租亦見突破，消息人士透露，國金中心二期中層單位，面積約七千多呎，望海景，由港鐵持有，成交呎租高逾一百八十餘元，創下本港甲廈海嘯後新高呎租，租客為中資機構。儘管上址呎租創新高，惟與金融海嘯前高峰期仍然有距離，於○八年七月，同廈高層單位，面積約五千方呎，以呎租約二百元承租，現時最新個案與之比較，仍有半成至一成差距。消息指，現時國金二期空置率更低於百分之二。
國金呎租突破180元
高力國際香港商業部行政董事劉柏汶表示，今年首季全港甲廈平均空置率僅約百分之四，中區甲廈更低至百分之三，平均呎租亦由去年第四季九十七點九元，升至今年首季一百一十點二元，按季升一成三，不過，距金融海嘯前最高呎價一百一十五元，僅差百分之四。
中區租金急升，部分企業紛遷址，知情人士說，有家法國銀行從金鐘甲廈，搬往西九龍環球貿易廣場，租用面積達五萬五千方呎。另有服裝公司購置東九龍商廈自用，涉二萬五千方呎，亦有外資保險洽購東九龍商廈作自用。
高力國際研究及諮詢董事盧永輝直指，本港甲廈每月租用成本九十四元，新加坡五十點六元，上海僅二十四元，有新公司考慮將基地設在本港以外的亞洲其他城市，令香港面對競爭。
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Market For Day Trader Speculation; Bargain For Patient Investor?
Market continued to decline on Japan earthquake aftermath. It appears that market cannot struggle back to recent high one month ago. This shakes the confidence of some investors to believe that market is beginning to move in the downward direction. Hedge funds make a hit selling in the last few weeks. Individual investors that entered the market early in last October decided to take profit on fear of further decline. Day traders took advantage of herding behaviour to ride on the trend. As a result, trading volume increases but not as heavy as in a panic market. There are some buying from day trader speculation as well as individual investors who have previously taken profit on market top. Some individual investors that have not entered the market during the rally find an entry point during this pullback. Institutional investors rearrange asset allocation to reduce holdings on blue chip companies which have advanced more than market average. The volatility of market may continue for some more time until hedge funds selling is accomplished.
Although a volatile market provides opportunity for speculative trading, making the right investment decision is a difficult task. Investors use various tools and information sources to help making an investment decision. Market data moving average is a popular charting tools among professional and amateur investors. Therefore the speculative trading portfolio will develop a strategy based on moving average to predict the trend of equity stock market. This can help to adhere to the rule rather than on impulsive decision to initiate or close a trade. On the other hand, as discussed in earlier posts, the speculative trading strategy is based on market participants mechanism, not pure technical analysis. Therefore there should be other constituents in the tools developed to help making a trade decision, other than pure stock price data, but also market participants behaviour. However, it may be difficult to model market behaviour in simple numerical data. As a start, market price and volume data will be used to develop a chart to track market trend. Details will be refined during progress of development.
Volatile week underscores bull market's fragility
U.S. companies, for the most part, are in good financial shape. Earnings are expected to be strong for the first quarter, and they've never had more cash. But world events -- like a nuclear disaster in Japan or a protest in Saudi Arabia -- can quickly jolt investors.
The S&P 500 index is down roughly 5 percent since they reached their recent highs in February, according to Standard & Poor's. That's enough of a drop to qualify for what market technicians call a pullback. There have been 53 such losses of between 5 and 10 percent since World War II, according to Standard & Poor's. Most pullbacks have averaged price drops around 7 percent, and required an average of two months to get back to even.
Looming over all of this is the Federal Reserve, whose $600 billon effort to stimulate the economy and buoy stock markets expires at the end of June. The Fed's stimulus program has helped the S&P 500 gain 19 percent since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first hinted at the plan in August. Investors were willing to shrug off bad news about the economy because of their faith in the Fed's powers.
Stocks aren't bound to fall into another bear market, says John Brady, senior vice president at the brokerage MF Global. Companies are largely healthy, he argues. That's what should matter most to investors.
Give it To Me Straight: Are Stocks Cheap or Not?
Alas, there’s never an easy answer. It all depends on how you try to value them.
According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is now trading at 13 times its earnings over the last 12 months. That’s well below its average over the last 20 years of 19.4 times earnings. But a good chunk of those 20 years had to do with the extraordinary stock market bubble of the 1990s. (In other words, that might not be the best average to use if you’re looking for a “normal” period to compare against today’s stock market.)
But even within the last five-years, the S&P average multiple was around 15. So stocks don’t really look expensive through that lens either.
But there are other ways to measure the market. Yale University’s bubble watcher extraordinaire Robert Shiller, who has tracked P/E ratios back to the 19th century, smoothes out short-term ups and downs in profits by using a 10-year earnings average. Into the first week in March, Shiller calculates that stocks were trading at about 23.7 average earnings over the last 10 years. That’s well above the historical average of about 16. (On the other hand, it’s not as clearly overvalued as the multiples of 40 times the 10-year average that we saw during the tech bubble of the 1990s.)
How Now, Dow?
It may seem odd to turn to the Dow Theory for an assessment of the stock market's current prospects.
After all, it was created a century ago, well before nuclear power plants even existed — when fears of a nuclear meltdown were beyond anyone's imagination.
To best appreciate what the Dow Theory is telling us, a bit of background is helpful. According to the theory, a sell signal is triggered only when three conditions are met:
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average undergo a significant correction from joint new highs.
In their subsequent rally attempts following that correction, either one or both of the Averages fail to rise above their pre-correction highs.
Both Averages then drop below their respective correction lows.
Where are we in this three-step schema?
I turn first to Jack Schannep, editor of TheDowTheory.com and the Schannep Timing Indicator, whose interpretation of the Dow Theory has been the most successful in recent years among the three investment services I monitor who base their market timing on the Dow Theory.
Schannep in essence believes that we are still within the throes of Step No. 1. In fact, on his interpretation, attention doesn't shift to step No. 2 until the market stages a 3% rally — and no rally since the market's mid-February high has come even close. Even with Thursday's strong rally, for example, the Dow is just 1.3% above its correction low.
On the assumption that a Dow theory signal remains in effect until reversed, therefore, Schannep remains solidly in the bullish camp.
Hedge Funds Had Bets Against Japan
Even Before the Disaster, Big Investors Were Wagering on Economic Problems
Hedge-fund managers from Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors LP in Dallas to smaller firms like Commonwealth Opportunity Capital have made money since the earthquake on long-held bets on Japan's government and corporate bonds.
New (and Old) Members of Congress Are Very Rich: Good or Bad For Democracy?
"On balance members of Congress are just exponentially wealthier than the constituents that they represent," says David Levinthal, editor of CRP's OpenSecrets.org.
The latest batch of new Senators are even wealthier, averaging a net worth of $3.96 million. In total, the combined new class is worth half a billion dollars, according to CRP.
On the one hand, don't we want the ambitious and successful representing the people? Isn't it a noble calling for someone who's had success in the private sector to then want to give back to the public good?
On the other, are these multi-millionaires in touch with the needs of the people? A vast majority of Congress are millionaires, yet 1% of the broader population can make that same claim.
Does being wealthy make these members of Congress less susceptible to special interests and corruption? Or, does it make them less likely to raise taxes on the nation's highest earners?
D.C. Disconnect: Congress Represents Big Interests, Not YOUR Interests, Sachs Says
“Washington is unrealistic. They are not talking about real things,” like military spending and entitlement programs, he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. Instead, Congress and President Obama seem set on cutting civilian discretionary spending, including on education, that directly impacts mainstream America.
Sachs goes on to say that our fiscal house would be in much better shape had Congress not extended the Bush tax cuts at the end of last year. “All the politicians in Washington have one strategy, don’t say 'taxes' at all,” he says. “But if you know the budget if you really know the numbers, you know that without taxes at least at the top, there is not even a chance of one in a million of getting anywhere close to a responsible budget.”
“What they are doing is taking cuts out of the hide of the poorest people in this country….[leaving] those who have massive wealth completely unscathed,” he says. “It is all a game for next year’s campaign financing: In other words, don’t touch the big boys, they got to pay for your campaign.”
“There is such a disconnect between what the American people say, and what Washington does, you wonder if this is a democracy,” Sachs says. “The American people say 'get out of Afghanistan, stop wasting money on the military, raise taxes on the rich and [opt for a] public option on health care.' Of course, the interests, the powers that be oppose all of that.”
The New Robber Barons: All Politicians "In the Hands of the Super Wealthy," Sachs Says
But Sachs says the "real story" is much bigger than Wisconsin: It's about stagnant wages of public and private sector workers alike, and the increasing and increasingly pernicious role of big money in politics.
The following statistics speak to Sachs' first point:
Since 1973, the median take home pay of full-time workers is virtually unchanged on an inflation-adjusted basis.
The top 11,000 households in America have more income than the bottom 25 million.
Since 1976, 58% of real income growth has gone to the top 1% of Americans.
"We've reached the greatest income [and] wealth inequality in history," Sachs says. "This is a new ‘Robber Baron' era, of course."
China Ends America's Century Old Manufacturing Dominance
Ending a 110-year run for America as the world's dominant producer, China has overtaken the United States as the world's largest manufacturer. According to economics research firm IHS Global Insight, China manufactured 19.9% of the world's goods in 2010, while the U.S. accounted for 19.4%.
True as that might be, it doesn't mean the world's most populated country is destined to hold the crown for as long as the U.S.. China is already suffering the growing pains of higher labor costs, labor shortages and a push for better working conditions in its factories.
There is, however, plenty of reason the U.S. should use this as a wake-up call. America must recognize China is no longer just producing low-end cheap products, it's now home to many high-tech components that live in Apple devices and other consumer electronics. Thanks to better technology, education and infrastructure the Chinese will continue to move up the production food chain, including highly sophisticated weaponry.
States push harder for online sales tax collection
Tax-free shopping is under threat for many online shoppers as states facing widening budget gaps increasingly pressure Amazon.com Inc. and other Internet retailers to start collecting sales taxes from their residents.
Billions of dollars are at stake as a growing number of states look for ways to generate more revenue without violating a 1992 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that prohibits a state from forcing businesses to collect sales taxes unless the business has a physical presence, such as a store, in that state.
States are trying to get around that restriction by passing laws that broaden the definition of a physical presence. Retailers are resisting being deputized as tax collectors.
Until recently, the Supreme Court ruling has meant that Wal-Mart Stores Inc., based in Bentonville, Ark., would collect taxes from shoppers in all states with sales taxes, whether those shoppers buy items on or off the Web, because it has stores nationwide.
But Amazon, based in Seattle, wouldn't collect taxes from Floridians because it doesn't have a presence there. Although in such cases, shoppers in Florida are supposed to pay the tax directly to their state, few actually do.
Congress could give states authority to require tax collection by out-of-state retailers. Michael Mazerov, a senior fellow with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, believes such a federal law would be the best way to ensure that states get their taxes, but he understands why such efforts have stalled in Congress.
"It's tough legislation politically because you're asking Congress to pass legislation where they will be unfairly and inaccurately criticized as imposing a new tax," Mazerov said.
Although a volatile market provides opportunity for speculative trading, making the right investment decision is a difficult task. Investors use various tools and information sources to help making an investment decision. Market data moving average is a popular charting tools among professional and amateur investors. Therefore the speculative trading portfolio will develop a strategy based on moving average to predict the trend of equity stock market. This can help to adhere to the rule rather than on impulsive decision to initiate or close a trade. On the other hand, as discussed in earlier posts, the speculative trading strategy is based on market participants mechanism, not pure technical analysis. Therefore there should be other constituents in the tools developed to help making a trade decision, other than pure stock price data, but also market participants behaviour. However, it may be difficult to model market behaviour in simple numerical data. As a start, market price and volume data will be used to develop a chart to track market trend. Details will be refined during progress of development.
Volatile week underscores bull market's fragility
U.S. companies, for the most part, are in good financial shape. Earnings are expected to be strong for the first quarter, and they've never had more cash. But world events -- like a nuclear disaster in Japan or a protest in Saudi Arabia -- can quickly jolt investors.
The S&P 500 index is down roughly 5 percent since they reached their recent highs in February, according to Standard & Poor's. That's enough of a drop to qualify for what market technicians call a pullback. There have been 53 such losses of between 5 and 10 percent since World War II, according to Standard & Poor's. Most pullbacks have averaged price drops around 7 percent, and required an average of two months to get back to even.
Looming over all of this is the Federal Reserve, whose $600 billon effort to stimulate the economy and buoy stock markets expires at the end of June. The Fed's stimulus program has helped the S&P 500 gain 19 percent since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first hinted at the plan in August. Investors were willing to shrug off bad news about the economy because of their faith in the Fed's powers.
Stocks aren't bound to fall into another bear market, says John Brady, senior vice president at the brokerage MF Global. Companies are largely healthy, he argues. That's what should matter most to investors.
Give it To Me Straight: Are Stocks Cheap or Not?
Alas, there’s never an easy answer. It all depends on how you try to value them.
According to FactSet, the S&P 500 is now trading at 13 times its earnings over the last 12 months. That’s well below its average over the last 20 years of 19.4 times earnings. But a good chunk of those 20 years had to do with the extraordinary stock market bubble of the 1990s. (In other words, that might not be the best average to use if you’re looking for a “normal” period to compare against today’s stock market.)
But even within the last five-years, the S&P average multiple was around 15. So stocks don’t really look expensive through that lens either.
But there are other ways to measure the market. Yale University’s bubble watcher extraordinaire Robert Shiller, who has tracked P/E ratios back to the 19th century, smoothes out short-term ups and downs in profits by using a 10-year earnings average. Into the first week in March, Shiller calculates that stocks were trading at about 23.7 average earnings over the last 10 years. That’s well above the historical average of about 16. (On the other hand, it’s not as clearly overvalued as the multiples of 40 times the 10-year average that we saw during the tech bubble of the 1990s.)
How Now, Dow?
It may seem odd to turn to the Dow Theory for an assessment of the stock market's current prospects.
After all, it was created a century ago, well before nuclear power plants even existed — when fears of a nuclear meltdown were beyond anyone's imagination.
To best appreciate what the Dow Theory is telling us, a bit of background is helpful. According to the theory, a sell signal is triggered only when three conditions are met:
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average undergo a significant correction from joint new highs.
In their subsequent rally attempts following that correction, either one or both of the Averages fail to rise above their pre-correction highs.
Both Averages then drop below their respective correction lows.
Where are we in this three-step schema?
I turn first to Jack Schannep, editor of TheDowTheory.com and the Schannep Timing Indicator, whose interpretation of the Dow Theory has been the most successful in recent years among the three investment services I monitor who base their market timing on the Dow Theory.
Schannep in essence believes that we are still within the throes of Step No. 1. In fact, on his interpretation, attention doesn't shift to step No. 2 until the market stages a 3% rally — and no rally since the market's mid-February high has come even close. Even with Thursday's strong rally, for example, the Dow is just 1.3% above its correction low.
On the assumption that a Dow theory signal remains in effect until reversed, therefore, Schannep remains solidly in the bullish camp.
Hedge Funds Had Bets Against Japan
Even Before the Disaster, Big Investors Were Wagering on Economic Problems
Hedge-fund managers from Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors LP in Dallas to smaller firms like Commonwealth Opportunity Capital have made money since the earthquake on long-held bets on Japan's government and corporate bonds.
New (and Old) Members of Congress Are Very Rich: Good or Bad For Democracy?
"On balance members of Congress are just exponentially wealthier than the constituents that they represent," says David Levinthal, editor of CRP's OpenSecrets.org.
The latest batch of new Senators are even wealthier, averaging a net worth of $3.96 million. In total, the combined new class is worth half a billion dollars, according to CRP.
On the one hand, don't we want the ambitious and successful representing the people? Isn't it a noble calling for someone who's had success in the private sector to then want to give back to the public good?
On the other, are these multi-millionaires in touch with the needs of the people? A vast majority of Congress are millionaires, yet 1% of the broader population can make that same claim.
Does being wealthy make these members of Congress less susceptible to special interests and corruption? Or, does it make them less likely to raise taxes on the nation's highest earners?
D.C. Disconnect: Congress Represents Big Interests, Not YOUR Interests, Sachs Says
“Washington is unrealistic. They are not talking about real things,” like military spending and entitlement programs, he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. Instead, Congress and President Obama seem set on cutting civilian discretionary spending, including on education, that directly impacts mainstream America.
Sachs goes on to say that our fiscal house would be in much better shape had Congress not extended the Bush tax cuts at the end of last year. “All the politicians in Washington have one strategy, don’t say 'taxes' at all,” he says. “But if you know the budget if you really know the numbers, you know that without taxes at least at the top, there is not even a chance of one in a million of getting anywhere close to a responsible budget.”
“What they are doing is taking cuts out of the hide of the poorest people in this country….[leaving] those who have massive wealth completely unscathed,” he says. “It is all a game for next year’s campaign financing: In other words, don’t touch the big boys, they got to pay for your campaign.”
“There is such a disconnect between what the American people say, and what Washington does, you wonder if this is a democracy,” Sachs says. “The American people say 'get out of Afghanistan, stop wasting money on the military, raise taxes on the rich and [opt for a] public option on health care.' Of course, the interests, the powers that be oppose all of that.”
The New Robber Barons: All Politicians "In the Hands of the Super Wealthy," Sachs Says
But Sachs says the "real story" is much bigger than Wisconsin: It's about stagnant wages of public and private sector workers alike, and the increasing and increasingly pernicious role of big money in politics.
The following statistics speak to Sachs' first point:
Since 1973, the median take home pay of full-time workers is virtually unchanged on an inflation-adjusted basis.
The top 11,000 households in America have more income than the bottom 25 million.
Since 1976, 58% of real income growth has gone to the top 1% of Americans.
"We've reached the greatest income [and] wealth inequality in history," Sachs says. "This is a new ‘Robber Baron' era, of course."
China Ends America's Century Old Manufacturing Dominance
Ending a 110-year run for America as the world's dominant producer, China has overtaken the United States as the world's largest manufacturer. According to economics research firm IHS Global Insight, China manufactured 19.9% of the world's goods in 2010, while the U.S. accounted for 19.4%.
True as that might be, it doesn't mean the world's most populated country is destined to hold the crown for as long as the U.S.. China is already suffering the growing pains of higher labor costs, labor shortages and a push for better working conditions in its factories.
There is, however, plenty of reason the U.S. should use this as a wake-up call. America must recognize China is no longer just producing low-end cheap products, it's now home to many high-tech components that live in Apple devices and other consumer electronics. Thanks to better technology, education and infrastructure the Chinese will continue to move up the production food chain, including highly sophisticated weaponry.
States push harder for online sales tax collection
Tax-free shopping is under threat for many online shoppers as states facing widening budget gaps increasingly pressure Amazon.com Inc. and other Internet retailers to start collecting sales taxes from their residents.
Billions of dollars are at stake as a growing number of states look for ways to generate more revenue without violating a 1992 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that prohibits a state from forcing businesses to collect sales taxes unless the business has a physical presence, such as a store, in that state.
States are trying to get around that restriction by passing laws that broaden the definition of a physical presence. Retailers are resisting being deputized as tax collectors.
Until recently, the Supreme Court ruling has meant that Wal-Mart Stores Inc., based in Bentonville, Ark., would collect taxes from shoppers in all states with sales taxes, whether those shoppers buy items on or off the Web, because it has stores nationwide.
But Amazon, based in Seattle, wouldn't collect taxes from Floridians because it doesn't have a presence there. Although in such cases, shoppers in Florida are supposed to pay the tax directly to their state, few actually do.
Congress could give states authority to require tax collection by out-of-state retailers. Michael Mazerov, a senior fellow with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, believes such a federal law would be the best way to ensure that states get their taxes, but he understands why such efforts have stalled in Congress.
"It's tough legislation politically because you're asking Congress to pass legislation where they will be unfairly and inaccurately criticized as imposing a new tax," Mazerov said.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Queen Victoria Stamps Set Hong Kong Record
Hong Kong, Sunday 23 January 2011
A rare block of Hong Kong stamps featuring Queen Victoria's head was sold for a record of £447,700 (821,000 US dollars).
The block of four 1865 stamps with a face value of 96 Hong Kong cents (12 US cents) each, which were misprinted in an olive colour, were bought by an anonymous buyer at a sale Sunday, the auction house Spink said.
The price is the highest ever paid for a single lot of stamps in Hong Kong, Spink said. The stamps were sold as part of a two-day auction of rare stamps, coins and bank notes.
Friday, March 18, 2011
The Truth About a $3 iPad
by Kelli Grant
Friday, March 18, 2011
An iPad for $3.20? A designer handbag for $41.80? It is possible, due to a new and growing segment of online auctions. Yet it's not as likely — or as cheap — as sites would like you to think.
They're called "penny auction" sites, because bidding typically starts at zero and goes up by a penny, and in the last two years, they've moved from the novelty fringe firmly into mainstream. Unheard of in 2009, there are now more than 120 such sites, according to Technology Briefing Centers, a consulting firm that tracks the sites. Like with other online auctions, the sites offer the possibility to buy, or win, gadgets, designer accessories or gift cards for a fraction of the retail price, and plenty are finding that alluring: Fifteen-month-old site BidHere.com, for example, boasts 1.1 million members in 22 countries and estimates that it gains 1,200 new users daily.
Complaints about the industry, however, are growing nearly as fast. The Better Business Bureau is still tallying 2010 figures, but a spokeswoman says that just four local branches reported more than 1,500 complaints about penny auction sites — more than the total number of complaints logged nationally about internet auctions the year before. And the sites' biggest critics say they're no better than playing the lottery or the slots — without the regulatory oversight. "It looks and smells like gambling to me," says Joseph Lewczak, an attorney at Davis & Gilbert LLP, which specializes in sweepstakes and lottery law.
For their part, the sites say the auctions aren't gambling at all. Rather, they're a new twist on retail sales. BidHere CEO Rick Day notes that on his site, auction participants have the option to buy the prize, whether they win or lose the auction. And some sites refund part or all of the fees participants pay as credits toward future auctions.
The potential for problems lie in the very structure of the penny auctions. For each one- or two-cent bid, participants must pay a fee, typically 50 cents to $1, depending on the site. In comparison, eBay users bid for free although each bid typically $1 or more to the previous bid. Another difference with penny auctions: Each new bid extends the auction time by 15 seconds, similar to a real-life, going-going-gone scenario. So while an eBay auction with two minutes left will end in exactly 120 seconds, a penny auction with 15 seconds left could go on for several hours. A penny auction winner doesn't collect the object with his winning bid, either: He wins the chance to pay the final price for the prize on offer. Some sites will let the losers use their fees as a credit toward buying the item, but not always.
It's a structure that can be incredibly lucrative for the sites, while still enabling them to offer goods at prices that seem low. On QuiBids.com, a Canon digital SLR camera recently sold for $194.16 — at least $1,000 less than retail prices elsewhere on the internet. But that final price represents 19,416 bids. At 60 cents per, that's as much as $11,650 in fee income for the company. "It's simple arithmetic: if sites weren't getting more for an item than it's worth, there wouldn't be so many of them out there," says mathematician Glen Whitney, the executive director of the Museum of Mathematics in New York.
The winner doesn't come out quite as far ahead. In this case, he shelled out almost $825 on bids, plus the additional $194.16 for the camera — $1,019 in total for the camera, or about an $80 discount off the price of the same model offered elsewhere on the web. Auction losers who applied their bids toward buying the camera from QuiBids paid that site's price of $1,417.50. It's not uncommon for prices on penny auction sites to be higher than on other sites: BidHere values a 32GB iPad with 3G and WiFi at $729; Apple stores sell it for $100 less. Pricing is based on what the site pays its suppliers, says BidHere's Day.
For their part, sites say users have ample opportunity to avoid bidding fees, including sign-up bonuses and special auctions that refund a portion of fees. "We want everyone on our site to absolutely know what they're doing," says Joel Fan, chief executive of LuckyChic.com. "There are signs all over the site telling you how many chips you're used, and how many you have left."
Paradoxically, the frustration of shelling out so much with nothing to show for it spurs users to try their hand at still more auctions, hoping to ease their losses with a big discount on something else, says Jack Vonder Heide, the president of Technology Briefing Centers. This, along with the fact that the sites sell chances to buy an object — rather than the object itself — contributes to the allegations of illegal gambling.
A class-action lawsuit filed in November against QuiBids.com alleges its pay-for-play format essentially constitutes an illegal lottery, and that the site engages in deceptive marketing by selling bids without disclosing the likelihood of winning. QuiBids says it's not gambling because every participant can apply fees spent toward the purchase of the item at the site's full retail price. "No customer has to walk away empty handed," says a spokeswoman. The suit is pending.
Of course, people do occasionally win at very low prices, which can be a boon. With the cost of bidding, that $3.20 iPad sold for less than $25 — a bargain under any circumstances. Spokespeople for penny auction sites say general auction strategies work in these situations too, in particular, knowing the value of the item and how much you're willing to spend. It's possible to review recently-ended auctions to see what similar items have sold for, and also the names of past winners. Seeing the same names next to lower winning bids may indicate a small set of users, which is a good thing; next to relatively higher winning bids, the same names over and over could signal a big subset of highly-skilled veteran bidders. BidHere.com's Day says his site, like others, has a subset of "super users" who have the bidding down to a science, and love to compete. Site newbies don't stand a chance. "Don't go for the MacBook Pro right away," he says. "You're not going to win it."
Friday, March 18, 2011
An iPad for $3.20? A designer handbag for $41.80? It is possible, due to a new and growing segment of online auctions. Yet it's not as likely — or as cheap — as sites would like you to think.
They're called "penny auction" sites, because bidding typically starts at zero and goes up by a penny, and in the last two years, they've moved from the novelty fringe firmly into mainstream. Unheard of in 2009, there are now more than 120 such sites, according to Technology Briefing Centers, a consulting firm that tracks the sites. Like with other online auctions, the sites offer the possibility to buy, or win, gadgets, designer accessories or gift cards for a fraction of the retail price, and plenty are finding that alluring: Fifteen-month-old site BidHere.com, for example, boasts 1.1 million members in 22 countries and estimates that it gains 1,200 new users daily.
Complaints about the industry, however, are growing nearly as fast. The Better Business Bureau is still tallying 2010 figures, but a spokeswoman says that just four local branches reported more than 1,500 complaints about penny auction sites — more than the total number of complaints logged nationally about internet auctions the year before. And the sites' biggest critics say they're no better than playing the lottery or the slots — without the regulatory oversight. "It looks and smells like gambling to me," says Joseph Lewczak, an attorney at Davis & Gilbert LLP, which specializes in sweepstakes and lottery law.
For their part, the sites say the auctions aren't gambling at all. Rather, they're a new twist on retail sales. BidHere CEO Rick Day notes that on his site, auction participants have the option to buy the prize, whether they win or lose the auction. And some sites refund part or all of the fees participants pay as credits toward future auctions.
The potential for problems lie in the very structure of the penny auctions. For each one- or two-cent bid, participants must pay a fee, typically 50 cents to $1, depending on the site. In comparison, eBay users bid for free although each bid typically $1 or more to the previous bid. Another difference with penny auctions: Each new bid extends the auction time by 15 seconds, similar to a real-life, going-going-gone scenario. So while an eBay auction with two minutes left will end in exactly 120 seconds, a penny auction with 15 seconds left could go on for several hours. A penny auction winner doesn't collect the object with his winning bid, either: He wins the chance to pay the final price for the prize on offer. Some sites will let the losers use their fees as a credit toward buying the item, but not always.
It's a structure that can be incredibly lucrative for the sites, while still enabling them to offer goods at prices that seem low. On QuiBids.com, a Canon digital SLR camera recently sold for $194.16 — at least $1,000 less than retail prices elsewhere on the internet. But that final price represents 19,416 bids. At 60 cents per, that's as much as $11,650 in fee income for the company. "It's simple arithmetic: if sites weren't getting more for an item than it's worth, there wouldn't be so many of them out there," says mathematician Glen Whitney, the executive director of the Museum of Mathematics in New York.
The winner doesn't come out quite as far ahead. In this case, he shelled out almost $825 on bids, plus the additional $194.16 for the camera — $1,019 in total for the camera, or about an $80 discount off the price of the same model offered elsewhere on the web. Auction losers who applied their bids toward buying the camera from QuiBids paid that site's price of $1,417.50. It's not uncommon for prices on penny auction sites to be higher than on other sites: BidHere values a 32GB iPad with 3G and WiFi at $729; Apple stores sell it for $100 less. Pricing is based on what the site pays its suppliers, says BidHere's Day.
For their part, sites say users have ample opportunity to avoid bidding fees, including sign-up bonuses and special auctions that refund a portion of fees. "We want everyone on our site to absolutely know what they're doing," says Joel Fan, chief executive of LuckyChic.com. "There are signs all over the site telling you how many chips you're used, and how many you have left."
Paradoxically, the frustration of shelling out so much with nothing to show for it spurs users to try their hand at still more auctions, hoping to ease their losses with a big discount on something else, says Jack Vonder Heide, the president of Technology Briefing Centers. This, along with the fact that the sites sell chances to buy an object — rather than the object itself — contributes to the allegations of illegal gambling.
A class-action lawsuit filed in November against QuiBids.com alleges its pay-for-play format essentially constitutes an illegal lottery, and that the site engages in deceptive marketing by selling bids without disclosing the likelihood of winning. QuiBids says it's not gambling because every participant can apply fees spent toward the purchase of the item at the site's full retail price. "No customer has to walk away empty handed," says a spokeswoman. The suit is pending.
Of course, people do occasionally win at very low prices, which can be a boon. With the cost of bidding, that $3.20 iPad sold for less than $25 — a bargain under any circumstances. Spokespeople for penny auction sites say general auction strategies work in these situations too, in particular, knowing the value of the item and how much you're willing to spend. It's possible to review recently-ended auctions to see what similar items have sold for, and also the names of past winners. Seeing the same names next to lower winning bids may indicate a small set of users, which is a good thing; next to relatively higher winning bids, the same names over and over could signal a big subset of highly-skilled veteran bidders. BidHere.com's Day says his site, like others, has a subset of "super users" who have the bidding down to a science, and love to compete. Site newbies don't stand a chance. "Don't go for the MacBook Pro right away," he says. "You're not going to win it."
Thursday, March 17, 2011
增長35.4% 毛利表現稍遜 中石油年賺1400億封王
(星島日報報道)受惠於油價大幅上升及產量增加，中石油（857）去年業績超預期，更超越匯豐控股（005）成為本港最賺錢公司。截至去年底，中石油全年純利近一千四百億元（人民幣，下同），按年增長百分之三十五點四。第四季純利三百九十九點六億元，更創下歷史新高。全年油氣產量十二點二八億桶油當量，實現油價每桶七十二點九三美元。
天然氣業務為中石油未來發展重點，副董事長兼總裁周吉平表示，目標是二○一五年天然氣產量達一千二百億立方米。產量規模日益擴大，但分析認為，中石油去年毛利率表現卻差強人意。有中資分析員指，由於內地天然氣價格與國外差距較大，去年中亞管道進口天然氣四十三億立方米造成三十五億元虧損，而唯一解決的方法是調整天然氣價格，在內地通脹高企的情況下仍存在不確定性，故以該公司預計今年進口氣量大幅增至一百五十至一百七十億立方米來看，未來進口恐持續虧損，毛利率走勢亦未見樂觀。
未來進口恐續虧損
日本天災，周吉平承認國際能源市場將因此受到影響，包括全球關心核電安全推動油氣需求的增加；日本災後重建，成品油進口量將急增，亞太、歐洲地區市場供應會緊張。不過，他強調位於大阪的合資公司，由於發生地震時正處於整修期，加上離震央較遠，沒有造成損失，目前人員及資產均安全。他並透露，公司將向日本提供二十二萬噸煉油產品，紓緩其能源短缺壓力，首批柴油及汽油各一萬噸已運達。
海外油氣淨產量微跌
中石油近年來大力拓展海外業務，儘管遭逢中東、北非局勢動盪，亦無意放緩腳步。周吉平指，中石油在利比亞及埃及並無油氣業務，相信於中東其他產油國如伊拉克之項目現時不會受到影響。他稱，公司擁有十幾年海外發展經驗，與中東資源大國及企業建立良好關係，未來會通過加強對外合作以及研究投資環境來調整發展策略，以控制風險。
值得注意的是，中石油去年海外油氣淨產量較○九年微跌，公司解釋主要因為去年油價高企，令海外合同分成有所下降，惟整體利潤仍可保持升勢。全年海外業務佔總收入三成，惟利潤比重僅百分之十三，公司透露未來隨著在建項目的投產，毛利率會進一步改善。
天然氣業務為中石油未來發展重點，副董事長兼總裁周吉平表示，目標是二○一五年天然氣產量達一千二百億立方米。產量規模日益擴大，但分析認為，中石油去年毛利率表現卻差強人意。有中資分析員指，由於內地天然氣價格與國外差距較大，去年中亞管道進口天然氣四十三億立方米造成三十五億元虧損，而唯一解決的方法是調整天然氣價格，在內地通脹高企的情況下仍存在不確定性，故以該公司預計今年進口氣量大幅增至一百五十至一百七十億立方米來看，未來進口恐持續虧損，毛利率走勢亦未見樂觀。
未來進口恐續虧損
日本天災，周吉平承認國際能源市場將因此受到影響，包括全球關心核電安全推動油氣需求的增加；日本災後重建，成品油進口量將急增，亞太、歐洲地區市場供應會緊張。不過，他強調位於大阪的合資公司，由於發生地震時正處於整修期，加上離震央較遠，沒有造成損失，目前人員及資產均安全。他並透露，公司將向日本提供二十二萬噸煉油產品，紓緩其能源短缺壓力，首批柴油及汽油各一萬噸已運達。
海外油氣淨產量微跌
中石油近年來大力拓展海外業務，儘管遭逢中東、北非局勢動盪，亦無意放緩腳步。周吉平指，中石油在利比亞及埃及並無油氣業務，相信於中東其他產油國如伊拉克之項目現時不會受到影響。他稱，公司擁有十幾年海外發展經驗，與中東資源大國及企業建立良好關係，未來會通過加強對外合作以及研究投資環境來調整發展策略，以控制風險。
值得注意的是，中石油去年海外油氣淨產量較○九年微跌，公司解釋主要因為去年油價高企，令海外合同分成有所下降，惟整體利潤仍可保持升勢。全年海外業務佔總收入三成，惟利潤比重僅百分之十三，公司透露未來隨著在建項目的投產，毛利率會進一步改善。
Sunday, March 13, 2011
散戶股壇血淚史
《散戶流浪記》──A Fool and His Money：The Odyssey of an Average Investor
作者：John Rothchild
出版：早安財經
售價：93元（城邦）
作者簡介：John Rothchild是財經作家，他在寫完這本書後，與美國傳奇基金經理林治（Peter Lynch，富達集團麥哲倫基金管理人）合作撰寫的經典暢銷書《One Up on Wall Street》、《Beating the Street》等膾炙人口的作品，而他亦經常獲邀上電視節目談理財心得。
手執這本《散戶流浪記》，是投資門外漢成長的經過，講述作者John Rothchild帶著16,500美元（約12.9萬港元）花了1年時間，展開一趟追求財富之旅。從一竅不通，跟銀行職員打交道，找理財顧問，「去」證券行開戶、買基金、買外匯等，到最終真正弄懂金融市場的遊戲規則。
屢次碰釘寫下教訓
作者用幽默逗趣的文字，道出他投資的頁頁辛酸史，整本書就是典型散戶屢敗屢戰、探索市場的歷程，可說是不少投資者的寫照。藉他那些詼諧的遭遇，讓我們認清市場上的種種誘惑及陷阱。作者每每在碰釘後，立即總結出一些血淚教訓，免自己重蹈覆轍。
例如他叮囑投資者千萬不要同時買Call又買Put，除非你知道那是甚麼玩意；又說千萬別在還沒考慮佣金之前，買入你忘記名字的股票等。整本書不講艱澀的理論，不吹捧任何投資，讀者可以行雲流水地用一種有趣的角度，自省到底犯了甚麼投資上的錯誤。
過癮的是，全書行文極盡諷刺之能事，例如諷刺投資評論員總給模棱兩可的意見，又說到投資增值成了「全民運動」，幾乎跟任何事物都扯上關係：投資者買樓為抗通脹、讀書為「自我增值」、帶小朋友上課外活動為的是「提升潛能」，就連和孩子玩大富翁，也會想起如何為小朋友準備教育基金等。
看到這些小市民的故事， 令筆者想起從前學駕駛時，教車師傅說起他有一位學生專門揀下午1時至2時才學車，原來那學生是股票愛好者，分秒都不敢離開大利市機熒幕。「為甚麼不選4時收市後？」原來家中小朋友放學了，她要回去照顧。這個例子或許太誇張，但相信不少投資者都在百忙中「作戰」。
跟作者學習整理經驗
雖然本書不是新著作，英文版早在1985年面試，而中文版也在2009年發行，但從作者的投資過程所見所聞，不禁讓人驚訝於其真知灼見。常說金融世界變幻無窮，但原來20年前散戶面對的問題，與今日的沒有兩樣。
當然，這本書的結論有點奇怪，好像叫人不該投入金融市場，不論你用甚麼方法投資，結果都難以在市場賺到甜頭，最好還是把錢放在銀行收息。或許讀者都未必認同這個結論，但跟從作者探索市場的腳步，整理一下自己的投資經驗，將本書當作生活小品閒來呷一口，委實不錯。
作者：John Rothchild
出版：早安財經
售價：93元（城邦）
作者簡介：John Rothchild是財經作家，他在寫完這本書後，與美國傳奇基金經理林治（Peter Lynch，富達集團麥哲倫基金管理人）合作撰寫的經典暢銷書《One Up on Wall Street》、《Beating the Street》等膾炙人口的作品，而他亦經常獲邀上電視節目談理財心得。
手執這本《散戶流浪記》，是投資門外漢成長的經過，講述作者John Rothchild帶著16,500美元（約12.9萬港元）花了1年時間，展開一趟追求財富之旅。從一竅不通，跟銀行職員打交道，找理財顧問，「去」證券行開戶、買基金、買外匯等，到最終真正弄懂金融市場的遊戲規則。
屢次碰釘寫下教訓
作者用幽默逗趣的文字，道出他投資的頁頁辛酸史，整本書就是典型散戶屢敗屢戰、探索市場的歷程，可說是不少投資者的寫照。藉他那些詼諧的遭遇，讓我們認清市場上的種種誘惑及陷阱。作者每每在碰釘後，立即總結出一些血淚教訓，免自己重蹈覆轍。
例如他叮囑投資者千萬不要同時買Call又買Put，除非你知道那是甚麼玩意；又說千萬別在還沒考慮佣金之前，買入你忘記名字的股票等。整本書不講艱澀的理論，不吹捧任何投資，讀者可以行雲流水地用一種有趣的角度，自省到底犯了甚麼投資上的錯誤。
過癮的是，全書行文極盡諷刺之能事，例如諷刺投資評論員總給模棱兩可的意見，又說到投資增值成了「全民運動」，幾乎跟任何事物都扯上關係：投資者買樓為抗通脹、讀書為「自我增值」、帶小朋友上課外活動為的是「提升潛能」，就連和孩子玩大富翁，也會想起如何為小朋友準備教育基金等。
看到這些小市民的故事， 令筆者想起從前學駕駛時，教車師傅說起他有一位學生專門揀下午1時至2時才學車，原來那學生是股票愛好者，分秒都不敢離開大利市機熒幕。「為甚麼不選4時收市後？」原來家中小朋友放學了，她要回去照顧。這個例子或許太誇張，但相信不少投資者都在百忙中「作戰」。
跟作者學習整理經驗
雖然本書不是新著作，英文版早在1985年面試，而中文版也在2009年發行，但從作者的投資過程所見所聞，不禁讓人驚訝於其真知灼見。常說金融世界變幻無窮，但原來20年前散戶面對的問題，與今日的沒有兩樣。
當然，這本書的結論有點奇怪，好像叫人不該投入金融市場，不論你用甚麼方法投資，結果都難以在市場賺到甜頭，最好還是把錢放在銀行收息。或許讀者都未必認同這個結論，但跟從作者探索市場的腳步，整理一下自己的投資經驗，將本書當作生活小品閒來呷一口，委實不錯。
為受詆譭名人提供清白機會鄧永鏘首創糾錯網站
【星島日報】香港企業家鄧永鏘(Sir David Tang)首創糾錯網站ICorrect.com，為受媒體和網絡詆毀的名人提供機會，上傳澄清信息，洗刷清白。若該網站成功運營的話，將成為全球首個擁有世界最全名人一手資料的網絡奢侈品牌。
ICorrect.com提供機會給倍受矚目的組織和個人，令他們可以以個人名義，對認為是被媒體和網絡誤傳的信息進行更正。該網站於周四開始運行。名人政客如英國 前首相貝理雅 妻子雪莉(Cherie Blair)、英國著名演員和電視主持人弗萊(Stephen Fry)、曾任匯豐控股 有限公司主席的龐約翰(Sir John Bond)、人權活動者Jemima Khan、英國著名女演員米勒(Sienna Miller)、下議院議員Zac Goldsmith、歷史學者Niall Ferguson和英國超模甘寶(Naomi Campbell)，以及組織集團，如車路士 足球會(Chelsea Football Club)都已在該網站發表澄清信息，糾正誤傳信息。
鄧永鏘說，創建該網站旨在為社會名人提供平台，反駁他們認為是謊言及誤傳的信息。該網站最終還決定允許個人和組織在網站上公開道歉。
他補充，之所以有想法做這個網站，是因為突然意識到，在過去20年，人類創造了空前的網絡世界。而這個網絡世界裡99%的信息都是道聽途說。只要在Google上搜尋任何人，Wikipedia或多達20幾頁的搜尋結果都是別人在撰寫或評論當事人。於是，他決定建立一個專門網站，讓當事人可獲機會澄清是非。
英國前首相貝理雅妻子雪莉在網站上澄清，一年前《每日郵報》一篇文章聲稱，她曾參加利比亞領導人格達費之子賽義夫的攝影派對為不實，她根本沒見過賽義夫。
通過審查的糾錯者可以多種語言上傳資料，鄧永鏘已邀請朋友在網站運行前上傳澄清內容。據悉，網民可免費瀏覽該網站，但名人和政客若要澄清相關信息則需支付每年1000美金的費用；公司集團的收費為5000美元 一年。
ICorrect.com提供機會給倍受矚目的組織和個人，令他們可以以個人名義，對認為是被媒體和網絡誤傳的信息進行更正。該網站於周四開始運行。名人政客如英國 前首相貝理雅 妻子雪莉(Cherie Blair)、英國著名演員和電視主持人弗萊(Stephen Fry)、曾任匯豐控股 有限公司主席的龐約翰(Sir John Bond)、人權活動者Jemima Khan、英國著名女演員米勒(Sienna Miller)、下議院議員Zac Goldsmith、歷史學者Niall Ferguson和英國超模甘寶(Naomi Campbell)，以及組織集團，如車路士 足球會(Chelsea Football Club)都已在該網站發表澄清信息，糾正誤傳信息。
鄧永鏘說，創建該網站旨在為社會名人提供平台，反駁他們認為是謊言及誤傳的信息。該網站最終還決定允許個人和組織在網站上公開道歉。
他補充，之所以有想法做這個網站，是因為突然意識到，在過去20年，人類創造了空前的網絡世界。而這個網絡世界裡99%的信息都是道聽途說。只要在Google上搜尋任何人，Wikipedia或多達20幾頁的搜尋結果都是別人在撰寫或評論當事人。於是，他決定建立一個專門網站，讓當事人可獲機會澄清是非。
英國前首相貝理雅妻子雪莉在網站上澄清，一年前《每日郵報》一篇文章聲稱，她曾參加利比亞領導人格達費之子賽義夫的攝影派對為不實，她根本沒見過賽義夫。
通過審查的糾錯者可以多種語言上傳資料，鄧永鏘已邀請朋友在網站運行前上傳澄清內容。據悉，網民可免費瀏覽該網站，但名人和政客若要澄清相關信息則需支付每年1000美金的費用；公司集團的收費為5000美元 一年。
Friday, March 11, 2011
8公斤米破100元大關 兩周加價6.7％ 中國絲苗入口最平零售最貴
【明報專訊】內地通脹持續強勁，2月份消費物價指數維持4.9％，與1月持平，未有如市場預期回落。本港食品價格亦不斷攀升，其中食米升幅最勁，8公斤泰國 米更衝破百元，創歷史高價。根據消委會 格價資料，「金象牌頂上苿莉香米8公斤」在惠康 超市一度售95.9元，吉之島 更賣124.5元，平均每公斤要近15.6元；另一款在百佳 出售的「金鳳牌泰國香米——米王之皇8公斤」，更由兩周前的97.9元升至昨日的104.5元，短短兩周升幅達6.7％。
內地通脹主要由食品價格上漲帶動，香港市民亦感受到食品價格升幅及速度均驚人。李先生每兩個月會到超市買米，每次買一包8公斤金鳳牌泰國香米，他發現近3次米價已上升約一成，食油則貴了約5%。他說，日用品如廁紙、梘液等「樣樣貴」，但以食品價格上升最多，唯有貨比三家，亦會改到雜貨舖購物。85歲郭婆婆說，近日食材價格上漲，菜心由去年底每斤6、7元，升至近日的9元，買魚時也發現同一價錢的分量大減。但她因行動不便，不能四處格價，唯有減少餸菜分量。
多款熱門食品漲價
記者翻查消委會格價資料，發現「金象牌維他命泰國香米5公斤 」由兩周前的59.9元，升至近日的65.9元，吉之島更要80.1元。另一款「金鳳牌泰國茉莉香米5公斤」一樣由兩周前的59.9元，升至約62.9至68.9元。除了食米，多項熱門食品，價格在過去2周同樣錄得升幅，如「雀巢1+2咖啡」，過去一周平均價由上一周的25.61至27.56元，升至31.5至31.13元，升幅達23％。
市民捱貴米背後，記者又發現超市將廉價中國絲苗貴賣的現象，按工業貿易署 最新錄得的米價資料，在中國、泰國和澳洲 入口的食米中，中國絲苗米入口價最便宜，2月平均每公斤7.15元，較入口價最貴的澳洲絲苗（每公斤9.43元）低24％，然而，署方在超市錄得的中國絲苗平均零售價，卻較澳洲絲苗貴逾一成，而中國絲苗零售價亦較泰國香米為高。
百佳﹕力保米價穩定
對於中國絲苗零售價「食水深」問題，百佳超市發言人指出，他們出售的食米品牌超過逾90種，其中只有2至3種是中國絲苗，超市亦是跟據供應商建議的零售價出售。百佳強調，他們一直致力保持食米零售價格穩定。
據百佳和惠康網上資料，所售食米以泰國米為主，中國和澳洲絲苗品牌較少。百佳出售的中國絲苗品牌主是要金稻米，惠康則有售玉意牌絲苗；至於澳洲絲苗，兩超市主要出售雙羊牌和袋鼠牌。
越南 米增 佔市場逾三成
值得留意的是，泰國香米2月入口價雖較1月低，但零售價卻不減反加，泰國米亦由早年佔本港九成市場，縮減至目前只佔約一半，市場份額漸被越南米侵佔，由早年僅佔5％增至現時逾三成。
內地通脹主要由食品價格上漲帶動，香港市民亦感受到食品價格升幅及速度均驚人。李先生每兩個月會到超市買米，每次買一包8公斤金鳳牌泰國香米，他發現近3次米價已上升約一成，食油則貴了約5%。他說，日用品如廁紙、梘液等「樣樣貴」，但以食品價格上升最多，唯有貨比三家，亦會改到雜貨舖購物。85歲郭婆婆說，近日食材價格上漲，菜心由去年底每斤6、7元，升至近日的9元，買魚時也發現同一價錢的分量大減。但她因行動不便，不能四處格價，唯有減少餸菜分量。
多款熱門食品漲價
記者翻查消委會格價資料，發現「金象牌維他命泰國香米5公斤 」由兩周前的59.9元，升至近日的65.9元，吉之島更要80.1元。另一款「金鳳牌泰國茉莉香米5公斤」一樣由兩周前的59.9元，升至約62.9至68.9元。除了食米，多項熱門食品，價格在過去2周同樣錄得升幅，如「雀巢1+2咖啡」，過去一周平均價由上一周的25.61至27.56元，升至31.5至31.13元，升幅達23％。
市民捱貴米背後，記者又發現超市將廉價中國絲苗貴賣的現象，按工業貿易署 最新錄得的米價資料，在中國、泰國和澳洲 入口的食米中，中國絲苗米入口價最便宜，2月平均每公斤7.15元，較入口價最貴的澳洲絲苗（每公斤9.43元）低24％，然而，署方在超市錄得的中國絲苗平均零售價，卻較澳洲絲苗貴逾一成，而中國絲苗零售價亦較泰國香米為高。
百佳﹕力保米價穩定
對於中國絲苗零售價「食水深」問題，百佳超市發言人指出，他們出售的食米品牌超過逾90種，其中只有2至3種是中國絲苗，超市亦是跟據供應商建議的零售價出售。百佳強調，他們一直致力保持食米零售價格穩定。
據百佳和惠康網上資料，所售食米以泰國米為主，中國和澳洲絲苗品牌較少。百佳出售的中國絲苗品牌主是要金稻米，惠康則有售玉意牌絲苗；至於澳洲絲苗，兩超市主要出售雙羊牌和袋鼠牌。
越南 米增 佔市場逾三成
值得留意的是，泰國香米2月入口價雖較1月低，但零售價卻不減反加，泰國米亦由早年佔本港九成市場，縮減至目前只佔約一半，市場份額漸被越南米侵佔，由早年僅佔5％增至現時逾三成。
Equity Stock Consolidation
Equity stock market is consolidating the gain after two years from bottom on March 2009. Broad market indexes record peak level after financial crisis. Market participants are striving to interpret market direction on diversified perspective. Wealth effect makes people feel more comfortable holding equity stocks. Traders are speculating on market news. Hedge funds are attempting to move market downward with orderly selling. Some individual investors take profit on fear of massive correction while some individual investors see pullback as opportunity to strength the portfolio. Institutional investors are structuring the portfolio to prepare for the next move. Market participants are speculating the end of Federal Reserve bond buying program which is also known as "QE2".
Trading volume indicates that investors are still very cautious on equity stock market. Although the majority of market participants are holding stocks on long term asset appreciation and/or dividend, the fear of market meltdown will lock up the portfolio. Therefore during the consolidation period, speculators are day trading for risk profit.
Stock performance are resilient to political crisis and natural disaster. There is pullback but the magnitude is small because there is no panic selling and it is quickly snapped up as bargain by hungry investors with ample liquidity. When hedge fund selling stops, market is likely to resume a slow uptrend with a trickle of buying from individual investors who are lagging behind in the stock recovery.
The end of bond buying program in June would be a milestone in the equity stock market. Some market participants interpret as a turning point in market movement after the two-year rally. Some individual investors, especially those suffering from significant loss on panic selling during the financial crisis, remain in the money market. They are watching the rally but have not participated. With inflation expectation and low interest rate, they are tempted to take risk to grow their wealth. Some of them have already allocated real estate investment in the portfolio. The return of small individual investors last October has driven the rally which currently pauses for consolidation. When more individual investors switch from money market to equity stock market, the increased participation will drive market further. But currently the wealth effect is not enough to attract those frightened investors back to the equity stock market although they are dissatisfied with the low return of money and bond market.
The speculative trading portfolio has net long holding. Due to the small size of the portfolio and cost of hedging, there is not much hedging on the positions to protect against unfavorable market movement. Considering the leverage of the trading portfolio and the aggressiveness of trading strategy, the risk exposure is quite high. Even worst, the trading skill is not up to expected standard for a sustainable trader. Nevertheless, market provides opportunities to practise and acquire knowledge for profitable trades. A larger portfolio will provide room to restrict leveraging which is currently needed to overcome the trading overhead.
Market is flat ending this week. But it is volatile and the oscillations provide opportunities for swing trading. The speculative trading portfolio correctly speculated many of market movement cycles. However it lacked the skills to determine the most favorable entry and exit point. It can be understood that timing the market is difficult. As long as a successful trade is profitable and the majority of trade is successful, missing the optimum execution point is acceptable. However, the importance of trade execution timing is not just to maximize profit for a successful trade, but also to minimize loss for an unsuccessful trade as well.
Trading volume indicates that investors are still very cautious on equity stock market. Although the majority of market participants are holding stocks on long term asset appreciation and/or dividend, the fear of market meltdown will lock up the portfolio. Therefore during the consolidation period, speculators are day trading for risk profit.
Stock performance are resilient to political crisis and natural disaster. There is pullback but the magnitude is small because there is no panic selling and it is quickly snapped up as bargain by hungry investors with ample liquidity. When hedge fund selling stops, market is likely to resume a slow uptrend with a trickle of buying from individual investors who are lagging behind in the stock recovery.
The end of bond buying program in June would be a milestone in the equity stock market. Some market participants interpret as a turning point in market movement after the two-year rally. Some individual investors, especially those suffering from significant loss on panic selling during the financial crisis, remain in the money market. They are watching the rally but have not participated. With inflation expectation and low interest rate, they are tempted to take risk to grow their wealth. Some of them have already allocated real estate investment in the portfolio. The return of small individual investors last October has driven the rally which currently pauses for consolidation. When more individual investors switch from money market to equity stock market, the increased participation will drive market further. But currently the wealth effect is not enough to attract those frightened investors back to the equity stock market although they are dissatisfied with the low return of money and bond market.
The speculative trading portfolio has net long holding. Due to the small size of the portfolio and cost of hedging, there is not much hedging on the positions to protect against unfavorable market movement. Considering the leverage of the trading portfolio and the aggressiveness of trading strategy, the risk exposure is quite high. Even worst, the trading skill is not up to expected standard for a sustainable trader. Nevertheless, market provides opportunities to practise and acquire knowledge for profitable trades. A larger portfolio will provide room to restrict leveraging which is currently needed to overcome the trading overhead.
Market is flat ending this week. But it is volatile and the oscillations provide opportunities for swing trading. The speculative trading portfolio correctly speculated many of market movement cycles. However it lacked the skills to determine the most favorable entry and exit point. It can be understood that timing the market is difficult. As long as a successful trade is profitable and the majority of trade is successful, missing the optimum execution point is acceptable. However, the importance of trade execution timing is not just to maximize profit for a successful trade, but also to minimize loss for an unsuccessful trade as well.
For Traders Only: Lessons From Investor and Author Nicolas Darvas
Nicolas Darvas has inspired traders for many generations. His book, How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market is one that you'll find on many recommended reading lists.
•There are no good or bad stocks. There are only stocks that rise in price and stocks that decline in price, and that price is based on the laws of supply and demand in the marketplace.
•Losses are tuition on Wall Street. Learn from them.
•You should expect to be wrong half of the time. Your goal is to lose as little as possible when you are.
•Most of your big failures will come from three things: 1) when you abandon your rules, 2) you become overconfident, and 3) trade in despair when unsuccessful.
•The best speculators search only for the very best opportunities. To be truly successful, you must wait for the right opportunities to present themselves and this often means doing nothing for long periods of time.
•The market behaves the way it does due to participants behaving the way they do. No one knows what they will do until they actually do it.
•It is difficult to be profitable on the short side of the market versus the long side -- trading in rising or bull markets will give you the best chance for success.
•Concentrate your trades. At the peak of his success, Darvas would hold only five to eight stocks at one time which was in contrast to his earlier days when he was overtrading and would hold up to 30 stocks at a time.
•Perfection has no role in successful trading. No one can buy at the absolute lowest price and sell at the highest price. No time or effort should be devoted to that goal. "I never bought a stock at the low or sold one at the high in my life. I am satisfied to be along for most of the ride."
•Be aggressive when warranted. Darvas believed in making aggressive trades when his system pointed to a great trade. In fact, sometimes 50% of his capital was devoted to just one stock.
2 years after market low, the little guy is back
As a historic bull market reaches its second birthday, everyday investors are piling back into stocks, finally ready for more risk and hoping the rally has further to go.
More job security, strengthening retirement account balances and improvement in the overall U.S. economy are some of the factors that have brought everyday investors back to the market.
While the economy is improving, it will take a lot longer to erase the abject fear that average investors have felt about owning stocks the last two years, says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist for Strategas Research Partners in New York.
One reason to set aside their reservations: They can't find a better place to stash their money. The bull market in bonds has ended, money-market accounts are returning 1 percent or less, and the average two-year CD earns no more than 1.5 percent.
As a result, many investors returning to the market are tiptoeing back in. They're buying what Trennert calls "stocks that look like bonds" -- dividend-paying blue chips that they hope will hedge their risk by guaranteeing at least a dividend payout.
There are plenty of investors still looking for an opportunity to get back in. Kenneth Kracmer, who owns a marketing firm in Dallas, is restless after cutting his stock allocation by half, to 30 percent.
When Your Money is the Dumb Money
By now you have probably heard about the growing evidence that "dumb money" is entering the market. The dumb money is not my term, by the way; it's how Wall Street refers to individual investors who repeatedly sell stocks at a low price, only to turn around later and buy them for high prices.
Investor Lessons As Bull Market Turns Two
On the two-year anniversary of the start of the bull market this week, it's worthwhile for investors to pause and reflect on some of the lessons we've learned since the great financial crisis of 2008 and early 2009.
Older retirees and many investors had sold that January or February, at what we know now was precisely the wrong time to get out of the market. The pain of seeing their life's savings depleted in investment statements month after month after month had just become too great.
The lessons for investors should not be forgotten. Buy-and-hold investment strategies did not survive for decades because they were fads. Investors who didn't sell and held on — indeed, continued to dollar-cost average — did quite well over the last few years.
After historic gains, are stocks nearing a bubble?
After two bubbles in the past 10 years -- tech stocks and real estate -- investors are suspicious of consistent gains that seem too good to be true. Some worry that the Fed's dramatic measures to pump up the economy mean the market's gains are an illusion. But a range of measurements suggest the market isn't in the midst of a bubble now. Instead, the stock market may simply be back to normal.
"The last two years were the great giveaway," says Stephen Lieber, the chief investment officer responsible for $6 billion in assets at Alpine Mutual Funds. Stocks had fallen so low during the panic that anyone who bought stocks on March 9, 2009, received a once-in-a-lifetime deal, he says. Caterpillar Inc., for instance, closed below $24 that day. It's now above $100.
While stock prices are much higher than they were two years ago, Bob Doll, market strategist for asset-management giant BlackRock, says investors aren't irrationally optimistic.
Corporations are expected to make record profits this year and have enough cash -- $2 trillion -- to pay bigger dividends and start buying back shares of stock, both of which make stocks more valuable.
"Corporate balance sheets haven't been in better shape over the last 200 years, period," says Joe Davis, the chief economist at fund giant Vanguard.
March buying advice: Buyers have power, but how much?
There's no question that it's a buyers market, with prices continuing to dip in the majority of U.S. metropolitan areas.
More Borrowers Underwater: Why We Should Care
"Negative equity holds millions of borrowers captive in their homes, unable to move or sell their properties," notes CoreLogic's chief economist Mark Fleming.
My concern is that the more borrowers in a negative equity position, the more may intentionally default on their loans in order to try for principal write down.
More people are buying their homes with cash
The number of homes bought with cash jumped to 32% in January compared to 26% a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Of course, many cash sales involve investors. There is such a glut of foreclosures on the market that they can snap them up cheap and not have to worry about interest or payments.
Stocks lift household wealth; companies amass cash
Americans are spending more of their growing wealth. The economy still needs companies to do the same.
Still lacking the confidence to spend at normal levels, businesses have stockpiled nearly $1.9 trillion in cash, a record, the government said Thursday.
The same report, based on data from the last three months of last year, showed households are further rebuilding the wealth they lost in the recession. Americans' net worth grew 3.8 percent, mostly thanks to the rising stock market.
The vast majority of people who have 401(k) retirement savings accounts now have more money in their accounts than at the market peak in October 2007, according to estimates by Jack VanDerhei of the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington. While the market is still well below its peak, most people have kept putting money in those accounts.
Billionaire Carl Icahn returns $1.76B to investors
On the eve of the bull market's second anniversary, billionaire investor Carl Icahn had an unsettling message for his investors: Take your money back.
In his letter, Icahn said he was bothered by the losses the funds incurred in 2008 and the fact that many of the investors withdrew large amounts of cash at the time.
Park said that such flight of capital hurts their longer term strategies since they need to have ample capital on hand to manage an activist campaign, which can run as long as two or three years.
A Deep Freeze Hits Muni-Bond Market
Municipal-bond issuance is on pace for its lowest quarter in at least 11 years following a rush of borrowing late last year and as government borrowers struggle to get their budgets in order.
Got (More) Stimulus? Bill Gross Doesn't Think the Economy Is "Self-Sustaining"
The U.S. economy grew at roughly 3% in the fourth quarter of 2010, the stock market is in the midst of a massive two-year rally and, while still high, the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since April 2009.
PIMCO's Bill Gross isn't convinced. The so-called Bond King, whose firm manages more than $1.2 trillion in assets, is concerned the economy will stagger when the Fed pulls the plug on its QE2 program at the end of June.
Treasuries "Most Overvalued" Bonds, Bill Gross Says: Beware End of QE2
This week marks the 2-year anniversary of the 2009 stock market bottom, but there's little celebrating among retail investors. General speaking, individual investors fled from the stock market in 2008 and 2009 for the perceived safety of the bond market, a trend which didn't abate until late 2010.
In his recent writings, Gross says June 30 could be "D-Day" for the Treasury market - "a day fraught with hope for victory, but fueled with immediate uncertainty and fear as to what would happen in the short term."
PIMCO Total Return dumps U.S. government-related debt
The world's largest bond fund has gone ultra bearish on the United States, dumping all of its U.S. government-related debt holdings.
Gross, as with many other investors, has raised red flags over demand for Treasuries when the U.S. central bank ends its controversial quantitative easing program.
PIMCO may have plans for how it will put its cash holdings to work. In a December regulatory filing the Total Return fund said it may start investing up to 10 percent of its assets in "equity-related" securities, such as convertibles and preferred stock, after the first quarter of 2011.
Gross: Why Pimco Dumped Treasurys From Biggest Fund
"It's not a question of dissing the United States or questioning the credit of the United States, but simply a maturity reflection," Gross said. Treasurys are "mispriced relative to the inflationary environment and the growth we see ahead and there are better alternatives in order to capture yield."
Gross primarily based his evaluation on the reduction in yields caused by the Federal Reserve's buying of close to $2 trillion in Treasurys, with more slated before the second leg of the program-often called QE 2-comes to an end.
Bill Gross: "Of Course" the Wealthy Should Pay Higher Taxes, Corporations Too
"Of course we should" pay higher taxes, Gross says. "Higher income groups have enjoyed an enormous privilege ever since the Reagan tax cuts...and actually ever since Kennedy began the process back in the ‘60s."
Gross admits it's difficult to know what constitutes "wealthy" in America or what federal income tax rate serves as a disincentive to those at the top of the food chain. "But I don't think it's 36%," he says. "I think high-income earners would work well into the 50% tax rate. That would certainly help balance the books going forward."
In addition to tax hikes on the wealthy, "let's raise corporate taxes too," the famed bond fund manager says, a view that runs in direct opposition to the current discussions in Washington.
World's richest are almost $1 trillion richer
The global ranks of billionaires grew by 199 people in the past year,
The number of people on Forbes' list climbed to 1,210 billionaires, setting a record with combined wealth of $4.5 trillion, up from $3.6 trillion a year ago. While the biggest slice of that wealth, $1.5 trillion, is controlled by people in the U.S., the publication said more than half of the new billionaires came from Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Overall, Forbes said 648 of the billionaires' wealth increased in the past year, while 160 of the world's wealthiest had declining fortunes. The rest were unchanged.
Factories having trouble finding skilled workers
You might think that it would be easier for manufacturers to find new employees. After all, the number of workers employed in factories is still more than 2 million lower than pre-recession levels due to layoffs or plant closings.
But experts in manufacturing staffing say that many of the factory workers who find themselves without a job simply don't have the specialized skills now in short supply.
And while it might only take about a year of training for a person to get the skills they need, many blue collar workers aren't eager to try and find a new job in manufacturing after already being laid off.
"The perception out there is that we're losing manufacturing jobs to China and India. So if they've already been displaced and they're going to go back to school, they're going for something not manufacturing-related," said Rob Clark.
Clark said he's also having trouble finding skilled workers. Other manufacturers say they are getting plenty of applications when they post jobs, but in most cases it's not from people with the most relevant experience to work in the factories.
Jonas Prising, Manpower's president of the Americas, said a big part of the problem is the reluctance of students and other young job seekers to even consider pursuing trades because of worries that the manufacturing sector is doomed.
Nicolas Darvas has inspired traders for many generations. His book, How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market is one that you'll find on many recommended reading lists.
•There are no good or bad stocks. There are only stocks that rise in price and stocks that decline in price, and that price is based on the laws of supply and demand in the marketplace.
•Losses are tuition on Wall Street. Learn from them.
•You should expect to be wrong half of the time. Your goal is to lose as little as possible when you are.
•Most of your big failures will come from three things: 1) when you abandon your rules, 2) you become overconfident, and 3) trade in despair when unsuccessful.
•The best speculators search only for the very best opportunities. To be truly successful, you must wait for the right opportunities to present themselves and this often means doing nothing for long periods of time.
•The market behaves the way it does due to participants behaving the way they do. No one knows what they will do until they actually do it.
•It is difficult to be profitable on the short side of the market versus the long side -- trading in rising or bull markets will give you the best chance for success.
•Concentrate your trades. At the peak of his success, Darvas would hold only five to eight stocks at one time which was in contrast to his earlier days when he was overtrading and would hold up to 30 stocks at a time.
•Perfection has no role in successful trading. No one can buy at the absolute lowest price and sell at the highest price. No time or effort should be devoted to that goal. "I never bought a stock at the low or sold one at the high in my life. I am satisfied to be along for most of the ride."
•Be aggressive when warranted. Darvas believed in making aggressive trades when his system pointed to a great trade. In fact, sometimes 50% of his capital was devoted to just one stock.
2 years after market low, the little guy is back
As a historic bull market reaches its second birthday, everyday investors are piling back into stocks, finally ready for more risk and hoping the rally has further to go.
More job security, strengthening retirement account balances and improvement in the overall U.S. economy are some of the factors that have brought everyday investors back to the market.
While the economy is improving, it will take a lot longer to erase the abject fear that average investors have felt about owning stocks the last two years, says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist for Strategas Research Partners in New York.
One reason to set aside their reservations: They can't find a better place to stash their money. The bull market in bonds has ended, money-market accounts are returning 1 percent or less, and the average two-year CD earns no more than 1.5 percent.
As a result, many investors returning to the market are tiptoeing back in. They're buying what Trennert calls "stocks that look like bonds" -- dividend-paying blue chips that they hope will hedge their risk by guaranteeing at least a dividend payout.
There are plenty of investors still looking for an opportunity to get back in. Kenneth Kracmer, who owns a marketing firm in Dallas, is restless after cutting his stock allocation by half, to 30 percent.
When Your Money is the Dumb Money
By now you have probably heard about the growing evidence that "dumb money" is entering the market. The dumb money is not my term, by the way; it's how Wall Street refers to individual investors who repeatedly sell stocks at a low price, only to turn around later and buy them for high prices.
Investor Lessons As Bull Market Turns Two
On the two-year anniversary of the start of the bull market this week, it's worthwhile for investors to pause and reflect on some of the lessons we've learned since the great financial crisis of 2008 and early 2009.
Older retirees and many investors had sold that January or February, at what we know now was precisely the wrong time to get out of the market. The pain of seeing their life's savings depleted in investment statements month after month after month had just become too great.
The lessons for investors should not be forgotten. Buy-and-hold investment strategies did not survive for decades because they were fads. Investors who didn't sell and held on — indeed, continued to dollar-cost average — did quite well over the last few years.
After historic gains, are stocks nearing a bubble?
After two bubbles in the past 10 years -- tech stocks and real estate -- investors are suspicious of consistent gains that seem too good to be true. Some worry that the Fed's dramatic measures to pump up the economy mean the market's gains are an illusion. But a range of measurements suggest the market isn't in the midst of a bubble now. Instead, the stock market may simply be back to normal.
"The last two years were the great giveaway," says Stephen Lieber, the chief investment officer responsible for $6 billion in assets at Alpine Mutual Funds. Stocks had fallen so low during the panic that anyone who bought stocks on March 9, 2009, received a once-in-a-lifetime deal, he says. Caterpillar Inc., for instance, closed below $24 that day. It's now above $100.
While stock prices are much higher than they were two years ago, Bob Doll, market strategist for asset-management giant BlackRock, says investors aren't irrationally optimistic.
Corporations are expected to make record profits this year and have enough cash -- $2 trillion -- to pay bigger dividends and start buying back shares of stock, both of which make stocks more valuable.
"Corporate balance sheets haven't been in better shape over the last 200 years, period," says Joe Davis, the chief economist at fund giant Vanguard.
March buying advice: Buyers have power, but how much?
There's no question that it's a buyers market, with prices continuing to dip in the majority of U.S. metropolitan areas.
More Borrowers Underwater: Why We Should Care
"Negative equity holds millions of borrowers captive in their homes, unable to move or sell their properties," notes CoreLogic's chief economist Mark Fleming.
My concern is that the more borrowers in a negative equity position, the more may intentionally default on their loans in order to try for principal write down.
More people are buying their homes with cash
The number of homes bought with cash jumped to 32% in January compared to 26% a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Of course, many cash sales involve investors. There is such a glut of foreclosures on the market that they can snap them up cheap and not have to worry about interest or payments.
Stocks lift household wealth; companies amass cash
Americans are spending more of their growing wealth. The economy still needs companies to do the same.
Still lacking the confidence to spend at normal levels, businesses have stockpiled nearly $1.9 trillion in cash, a record, the government said Thursday.
The same report, based on data from the last three months of last year, showed households are further rebuilding the wealth they lost in the recession. Americans' net worth grew 3.8 percent, mostly thanks to the rising stock market.
The vast majority of people who have 401(k) retirement savings accounts now have more money in their accounts than at the market peak in October 2007, according to estimates by Jack VanDerhei of the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington. While the market is still well below its peak, most people have kept putting money in those accounts.
Billionaire Carl Icahn returns $1.76B to investors
On the eve of the bull market's second anniversary, billionaire investor Carl Icahn had an unsettling message for his investors: Take your money back.
In his letter, Icahn said he was bothered by the losses the funds incurred in 2008 and the fact that many of the investors withdrew large amounts of cash at the time.
Park said that such flight of capital hurts their longer term strategies since they need to have ample capital on hand to manage an activist campaign, which can run as long as two or three years.
A Deep Freeze Hits Muni-Bond Market
Municipal-bond issuance is on pace for its lowest quarter in at least 11 years following a rush of borrowing late last year and as government borrowers struggle to get their budgets in order.
Got (More) Stimulus? Bill Gross Doesn't Think the Economy Is "Self-Sustaining"
The U.S. economy grew at roughly 3% in the fourth quarter of 2010, the stock market is in the midst of a massive two-year rally and, while still high, the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since April 2009.
PIMCO's Bill Gross isn't convinced. The so-called Bond King, whose firm manages more than $1.2 trillion in assets, is concerned the economy will stagger when the Fed pulls the plug on its QE2 program at the end of June.
Treasuries "Most Overvalued" Bonds, Bill Gross Says: Beware End of QE2
This week marks the 2-year anniversary of the 2009 stock market bottom, but there's little celebrating among retail investors. General speaking, individual investors fled from the stock market in 2008 and 2009 for the perceived safety of the bond market, a trend which didn't abate until late 2010.
In his recent writings, Gross says June 30 could be "D-Day" for the Treasury market - "a day fraught with hope for victory, but fueled with immediate uncertainty and fear as to what would happen in the short term."
PIMCO Total Return dumps U.S. government-related debt
The world's largest bond fund has gone ultra bearish on the United States, dumping all of its U.S. government-related debt holdings.
Gross, as with many other investors, has raised red flags over demand for Treasuries when the U.S. central bank ends its controversial quantitative easing program.
PIMCO may have plans for how it will put its cash holdings to work. In a December regulatory filing the Total Return fund said it may start investing up to 10 percent of its assets in "equity-related" securities, such as convertibles and preferred stock, after the first quarter of 2011.
Gross: Why Pimco Dumped Treasurys From Biggest Fund
"It's not a question of dissing the United States or questioning the credit of the United States, but simply a maturity reflection," Gross said. Treasurys are "mispriced relative to the inflationary environment and the growth we see ahead and there are better alternatives in order to capture yield."
Gross primarily based his evaluation on the reduction in yields caused by the Federal Reserve's buying of close to $2 trillion in Treasurys, with more slated before the second leg of the program-often called QE 2-comes to an end.
Bill Gross: "Of Course" the Wealthy Should Pay Higher Taxes, Corporations Too
"Of course we should" pay higher taxes, Gross says. "Higher income groups have enjoyed an enormous privilege ever since the Reagan tax cuts...and actually ever since Kennedy began the process back in the ‘60s."
Gross admits it's difficult to know what constitutes "wealthy" in America or what federal income tax rate serves as a disincentive to those at the top of the food chain. "But I don't think it's 36%," he says. "I think high-income earners would work well into the 50% tax rate. That would certainly help balance the books going forward."
In addition to tax hikes on the wealthy, "let's raise corporate taxes too," the famed bond fund manager says, a view that runs in direct opposition to the current discussions in Washington.
World's richest are almost $1 trillion richer
The global ranks of billionaires grew by 199 people in the past year,
The number of people on Forbes' list climbed to 1,210 billionaires, setting a record with combined wealth of $4.5 trillion, up from $3.6 trillion a year ago. While the biggest slice of that wealth, $1.5 trillion, is controlled by people in the U.S., the publication said more than half of the new billionaires came from Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Overall, Forbes said 648 of the billionaires' wealth increased in the past year, while 160 of the world's wealthiest had declining fortunes. The rest were unchanged.
Factories having trouble finding skilled workers
You might think that it would be easier for manufacturers to find new employees. After all, the number of workers employed in factories is still more than 2 million lower than pre-recession levels due to layoffs or plant closings.
But experts in manufacturing staffing say that many of the factory workers who find themselves without a job simply don't have the specialized skills now in short supply.
And while it might only take about a year of training for a person to get the skills they need, many blue collar workers aren't eager to try and find a new job in manufacturing after already being laid off.
"The perception out there is that we're losing manufacturing jobs to China and India. So if they've already been displaced and they're going to go back to school, they're going for something not manufacturing-related," said Rob Clark.
Clark said he's also having trouble finding skilled workers. Other manufacturers say they are getting plenty of applications when they post jobs, but in most cases it's not from people with the most relevant experience to work in the factories.
Jonas Prising, Manpower's president of the Americas, said a big part of the problem is the reluctance of students and other young job seekers to even consider pursuing trades because of worries that the manufacturing sector is doomed.
Friday, March 4, 2011
End Of Rally? Last year's flash crash versus today's Midlle East crisis.
As discussed in last week's post, equity stock market oscillates on economic news. Although it has been predicted an opportunity for speculative trading, it is difficult to enter and exit market at the most favorable timing. Nevertheless, with more practice, trading skill can be improved with experience and learning of market dynamics.
Market remains in consolidation period. Market participants are preparing for the next major direction of market movement, a sizable correction or continuation of rally. As mentioned in a post at the beginning of year, hedge funds entered the new year with attempt to sell down the market. But seeing that selling did not generate herding behavior, hedge funds quickly turned into accumulation. With the start of turmoil in Tunisia and spread to Middle East countries, investors find similarities in comparison of the rally in the first quarter of last year and this year. Last year, the rally ended with the flash crash. This year, the rally is stopped by the Middle East crisis at the current moment. It is uncertain whether the rally will resume. Hedge funds speculate that the rally will end and take profit on previous accumulation. This time, oil can be used as a hedge on the bet. A modest amount of other investors and traders follow the selling and the market is dragged down. However, the growing pool of capital sitting on the sideline would absorb the limited selling. There is not significant short selling due to the higher risk of unlimited loss in unfavorable market movement. Investors are more aware of risk mitigation than before the financial crisis.
It may appear that current rally will end with Middle East crisis just like last year's rally which ended with flash crash. However, there are major differences between the scenarios. Last year, liquidity had not taken effect in equity stock market yet. Individual investors were finding safety in money market as well as treasuries and bonds. Wealth effect was restricted to only small proportion of investors participating in the equity stock market. In this year, there is enormous capital liquidity chasing various kind of assets. The wealth effect has spread to the majority of households. Individual investors are leaving money market for the higher return of equity stock market. Therefore when most of the institutional investors trimmed the portfolio due to fear of flash crash, market fell without support. But during current Middle East crisis, although hedge funds selling is followed by some other investors, there is cash waiting on the sideline which is absent during the flash crash. There is buying support when the market retreats.
With continual inflow of capital and wealth effect of equity stock market as well as improving economic indicators and corporate earnings, investors are gaining confidence in equity stock market. The low yield of money market also increases small investor risk appetite against increasing living expense. In addition, most individual investors missed the rally since market bottom in March 2009 until October 2010. Without fear of another bottom, individual investors propel the market to recent high. To avoid the mistake in the 2009 stock recovery, individual investors will stay in the market despite short term oscillation. Institutional investors are also piled up with cash for any opportunities.
The hedge funds sell-off creates an opportunity to increase portfolio holdings at a relatively low level. There is consistent buying on each market correction. After the consolidation period, the outcome is more likely an uptrend because of increasing demand for equity stocks on both asset appreciation and dividend return. In an expanding economy with surplus capital, wealth allocation will favor assets over money market, which is the opposite during financial crisis.
鄭秀文
Hedge Funds Scramble as Rivals Exit
Several investors in the funds as well as consultants close to the matter say some investors are looking to put their cash into funds that follow the same "long-short" investment style.
Saudi Arabia's Regime Will Fall, Says Analyst
The root cause of the Middle East unrest, Ghait says, is inequality. Decades of autocratic rule have increased frustration that the vast wealth of the oil-producing countries in the region is in the hands of a small privileged few, and this frustration is finally boiling over.
Social Mood Turns Negative: Markets Will Soon Follow, Robert Prechter Says
"Even though we have deteriorating fundamentals, people are focusing on the optimistic things: 'the economy is expanding, the Fed is savings all the markets,'" he says.
He does have a point, in the face of all this uncertainty and turmoil, the markets are proving to be quite resilient. Tune into CNBC and you'll hear pundits brush off major concerns, saying how the threat of rising commodity prices will drive the Fed to save the day again with another round of quantitative easing; or that any inflation that's emerging is good for stocks.
Warren Buffett Is Bullish ... On Housing: "He's Putting His Money Where His Mouth Is"
"Our elephant gun has been reloaded and my trigger finger is itchy," Warren Buffett declared this weekend in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
Buffett also reiterated a pro-American stance in his latest letter: "Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America," the famed investor writes.
Wall Street Bets on Debt That Doesn't Exist
Fresh from Wall Street's alchemy labs: Credit derivatives tied to General Motors Co. debt. The rub is, no such debt exists.
Banks and hedge funds are trading credit-default swaps, which make payments to holders of General Motors bonds in the event of a default. But GM canceled $40 billion of debt in bankruptcy and has pledged to cut its remaining $4.6 billion bank loan to the bone this year.
That is merely a technicality for the banks and hedge funds that have been actively trading the CDS.
Banks, some of which have made loans to the car maker, have been buying the CDS even though it is unclear whether the contracts would cover their debts, according to people familiar with the matter. Hedge funds have been happy to sell the protection, which allows them to make bullish, or "long," bets on the auto maker.
For proponents, the existence of the GM swaps is a sign of a market at work. It also is a reminder of how credit-default swaps can be used as a way to speculate on a company's creditworthiness, rather than purely as a hedge against exposure to its bonds.
S&P 500 May Be Entering a New Phase: Here's How to Play It
Personally, I'm bullish; while I agree with the arguments of the bears, I think monetary policy of 0% interest rates and the prospect of QE3 will send money supply higher. Internationally, the movement away from the US dollar -- via actions like Russia allowing its currency to float more and China seeking a greater role for the Yuan in international trade -- will contribute to dollar weakness, which I think will further fuel a flight into US equities as a hedge against dollar devaluation.
Stock Market Very Risky Now, But We Still Love Apple, Says Jeff Matthews
Back in the dark days of early 2009, hedge fund manager Jeff Matthews (RAM Partners) got bullish on stocks when everyone else was seeing only doom.
(Note: Guest speaker is currently net long in portfolio with hedging.)
Market remains in consolidation period. Market participants are preparing for the next major direction of market movement, a sizable correction or continuation of rally. As mentioned in a post at the beginning of year, hedge funds entered the new year with attempt to sell down the market. But seeing that selling did not generate herding behavior, hedge funds quickly turned into accumulation. With the start of turmoil in Tunisia and spread to Middle East countries, investors find similarities in comparison of the rally in the first quarter of last year and this year. Last year, the rally ended with the flash crash. This year, the rally is stopped by the Middle East crisis at the current moment. It is uncertain whether the rally will resume. Hedge funds speculate that the rally will end and take profit on previous accumulation. This time, oil can be used as a hedge on the bet. A modest amount of other investors and traders follow the selling and the market is dragged down. However, the growing pool of capital sitting on the sideline would absorb the limited selling. There is not significant short selling due to the higher risk of unlimited loss in unfavorable market movement. Investors are more aware of risk mitigation than before the financial crisis.
It may appear that current rally will end with Middle East crisis just like last year's rally which ended with flash crash. However, there are major differences between the scenarios. Last year, liquidity had not taken effect in equity stock market yet. Individual investors were finding safety in money market as well as treasuries and bonds. Wealth effect was restricted to only small proportion of investors participating in the equity stock market. In this year, there is enormous capital liquidity chasing various kind of assets. The wealth effect has spread to the majority of households. Individual investors are leaving money market for the higher return of equity stock market. Therefore when most of the institutional investors trimmed the portfolio due to fear of flash crash, market fell without support. But during current Middle East crisis, although hedge funds selling is followed by some other investors, there is cash waiting on the sideline which is absent during the flash crash. There is buying support when the market retreats.
With continual inflow of capital and wealth effect of equity stock market as well as improving economic indicators and corporate earnings, investors are gaining confidence in equity stock market. The low yield of money market also increases small investor risk appetite against increasing living expense. In addition, most individual investors missed the rally since market bottom in March 2009 until October 2010. Without fear of another bottom, individual investors propel the market to recent high. To avoid the mistake in the 2009 stock recovery, individual investors will stay in the market despite short term oscillation. Institutional investors are also piled up with cash for any opportunities.
The hedge funds sell-off creates an opportunity to increase portfolio holdings at a relatively low level. There is consistent buying on each market correction. After the consolidation period, the outcome is more likely an uptrend because of increasing demand for equity stocks on both asset appreciation and dividend return. In an expanding economy with surplus capital, wealth allocation will favor assets over money market, which is the opposite during financial crisis.
鄭秀文Hedge Funds Scramble as Rivals Exit
Several investors in the funds as well as consultants close to the matter say some investors are looking to put their cash into funds that follow the same "long-short" investment style.
Saudi Arabia's Regime Will Fall, Says Analyst
The root cause of the Middle East unrest, Ghait says, is inequality. Decades of autocratic rule have increased frustration that the vast wealth of the oil-producing countries in the region is in the hands of a small privileged few, and this frustration is finally boiling over.
Social Mood Turns Negative: Markets Will Soon Follow, Robert Prechter Says
"Even though we have deteriorating fundamentals, people are focusing on the optimistic things: 'the economy is expanding, the Fed is savings all the markets,'" he says.
He does have a point, in the face of all this uncertainty and turmoil, the markets are proving to be quite resilient. Tune into CNBC and you'll hear pundits brush off major concerns, saying how the threat of rising commodity prices will drive the Fed to save the day again with another round of quantitative easing; or that any inflation that's emerging is good for stocks.
Warren Buffett Is Bullish ... On Housing: "He's Putting His Money Where His Mouth Is"
"Our elephant gun has been reloaded and my trigger finger is itchy," Warren Buffett declared this weekend in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
Buffett also reiterated a pro-American stance in his latest letter: "Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America," the famed investor writes.
Wall Street Bets on Debt That Doesn't Exist
Fresh from Wall Street's alchemy labs: Credit derivatives tied to General Motors Co. debt. The rub is, no such debt exists.
Banks and hedge funds are trading credit-default swaps, which make payments to holders of General Motors bonds in the event of a default. But GM canceled $40 billion of debt in bankruptcy and has pledged to cut its remaining $4.6 billion bank loan to the bone this year.
That is merely a technicality for the banks and hedge funds that have been actively trading the CDS.
Banks, some of which have made loans to the car maker, have been buying the CDS even though it is unclear whether the contracts would cover their debts, according to people familiar with the matter. Hedge funds have been happy to sell the protection, which allows them to make bullish, or "long," bets on the auto maker.
For proponents, the existence of the GM swaps is a sign of a market at work. It also is a reminder of how credit-default swaps can be used as a way to speculate on a company's creditworthiness, rather than purely as a hedge against exposure to its bonds.
S&P 500 May Be Entering a New Phase: Here's How to Play It
Personally, I'm bullish; while I agree with the arguments of the bears, I think monetary policy of 0% interest rates and the prospect of QE3 will send money supply higher. Internationally, the movement away from the US dollar -- via actions like Russia allowing its currency to float more and China seeking a greater role for the Yuan in international trade -- will contribute to dollar weakness, which I think will further fuel a flight into US equities as a hedge against dollar devaluation.
Stock Market Very Risky Now, But We Still Love Apple, Says Jeff Matthews
Back in the dark days of early 2009, hedge fund manager Jeff Matthews (RAM Partners) got bullish on stocks when everyone else was seeing only doom.
(Note: Guest speaker is currently net long in portfolio with hedging.)
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
全 球 製 造 業 指 數 創 近 7 年 新 高
數 據 顯 示 ， 2 月 全 球 製 造 業 採 購 經 理 指 數 (PMI) 升 至 57.8 ， 擴 張 速 度 為 2004 年 5 月 來 最 快 ； 而 價 格 上 漲 幅 度 也 為 兩 年 半 以 來 最 高 。
這 項 由 摩 根 大 通 與 研 究 和 供 應 管 理 組 織 所 編 纂 的 指 數 ， 亦 是 連 續 第 20 個 月 處 於 擴 張 水 平 的 50 以 上 ， 1 月 為 57.1 。
摩 根 大 通 稱 ， 由 於 產 出 和 新 訂 單 增 長 強 勁 ， 帶 動 就 業 增 幅 創 該 調 查 歷 來 最 高 ， 使 2 月 主 要 PMI 指 數 靠 向 紀 錄 高 位 。
2 月 投 入 價 格 分 項 指 數 升 至 76.7 ， 高 於 上 月 的 73.3 ， 反 映 商 品 、 能 源 和 原 油 價 格 上 漲 。
製 造 業 就 業 增 速 為 該 數 據 1998 年 1 月 開 始 編 纂 以 來 最 高 ， 幾 乎 調 查 涵 蓋 的 所 有 國 家 就 業 都 有 增 長 。
全 球 指 數 匯 集 了 對 美 國 、 日 本 、 德 國 、 法 國 、 英 國 、 中 國 和 俄 羅 斯 等 國 的 調 查 數 據 。
這 項 由 摩 根 大 通 與 研 究 和 供 應 管 理 組 織 所 編 纂 的 指 數 ， 亦 是 連 續 第 20 個 月 處 於 擴 張 水 平 的 50 以 上 ， 1 月 為 57.1 。
摩 根 大 通 稱 ， 由 於 產 出 和 新 訂 單 增 長 強 勁 ， 帶 動 就 業 增 幅 創 該 調 查 歷 來 最 高 ， 使 2 月 主 要 PMI 指 數 靠 向 紀 錄 高 位 。
2 月 投 入 價 格 分 項 指 數 升 至 76.7 ， 高 於 上 月 的 73.3 ， 反 映 商 品 、 能 源 和 原 油 價 格 上 漲 。
製 造 業 就 業 增 速 為 該 數 據 1998 年 1 月 開 始 編 纂 以 來 最 高 ， 幾 乎 調 查 涵 蓋 的 所 有 國 家 就 業 都 有 增 長 。
全 球 指 數 匯 集 了 對 美 國 、 日 本 、 德 國 、 法 國 、 英 國 、 中 國 和 俄 羅 斯 等 國 的 調 查 數 據 。
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