【明報專訊】代表發達世界主要石油消費國的國際能源機構（IEA）突宣布釋出6000萬桶緊急戰略石油儲備，企圖遏抑油價，令西方與石油輸出國組織（OPEC，簡稱油組）裂痕加深，多個油組成員國的代表，抨擊IEA的做法多餘，並暗示可能採取報復措施，透過減產來阻止油價下跌，全球石油消費與出口兩大陣營的油價大戰一觸即發。
戰略儲備「成對付油組武器」
IEA周四在美國牽頭下決定釋出6000萬桶油儲，公開的理由是「填補利比亞戰亂造成的供應缺口」。IEA聲稱，作出這決定前，諮詢過中國等石油消費大國及一些油組成員。但油組海灣成員國一名官員說﹕「這令人震驚，亦沒道理。IEA是單方面行動，我們不認為現在有動用緊急儲備的需要。」
油組暫未作出正式回應，但其秘書長巴德里（Abdullah al-Badri）上周曾指，IEA動用油儲是不專業的做法，他說﹕「戰略儲備應用得其所，而不是用作對付油組的武器。」
歐美疑壓價討好選民
歐美經濟復蘇荊棘滿途，高油價成了改善經濟和就業的絆腳石。委內瑞拉昨便質疑，IEA動用石油儲備，背後涉及一些政府企圖壓低油價討好選民的政治考慮，因法國和美國明年都將舉行大選。
親美的油組最大產油國沙特，本月初應美國要求，在油組會議上提出增產方案，但以伊朗與委內瑞拉為首的反美陣營成功否決增產。IEA與美國當時已暗示，可能動用戰略儲備壓低油價。沙特其後單方面提高產量，但IEA稱沙特增加的供應，難以取代利比亞的優質輕油。
《華爾街日報》指出，IEA動用油儲，可能促成油組內兩大陣營暫時團結槍口對外。傳統上親美的油組海灣成員國陣營，周四便與伊朗迅速站到同一陣線，齊聲指摘IEA。一名海灣國代表說﹕「油價沒並有飈升至150美元，現在沒有理由這樣做。市場並不缺乏供應，科威特與沙特已在增加產量，但買家並不多。IEA只是在陪美國玩政治遊戲。」另一油組代表更稱﹕「若我們看到市場有過多石油供應或油價下跌，油組將展開緊急會議，修正這個問題。」
海灣國斥陪美玩政治遊戲
有油組代表稱，IEA動用油儲，會對產油國造成損害。油組並沒有單一目標油價，但高油價帶來的豐厚收入令成員國有本錢改善民生，如提高就業和增加住屋供應等。沙特近月便在多個鄰國出現反政府浪潮後，推出連串派糖措施安撫民心，涉及開支達1290億美元，美銀美林4月研究指出，沙特需要靠每桶達95美元的油價，才能為這些支出埋單。在IEA作出動用油儲決定後，紐約期油急跌至每桶90美元水平。
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Increased Day Trading Activities
Market fluctuates on news but ends at lower level than last week. Trading volume increases due to more day trading activities. Market makers have profited from the seven consecutive weeks of declining stock values and are currently sitting on pile of cash with some fast volume trading. Day traders take the turn to speculate further market decline. However the strategy is to sell on rebound. There seems to be not much aggressive stock shorting at this moment as compared to the heavy shorting during financial crisis. Individual investors have offloaded the non-core portion of the portfolio, waiting for re-entry point. Market markers refrain from selling and there appears to be absent of catalyst for panic selling. Long term investors find opportunity to accumulate in small quantities. It may need a strong reason to shake out the holding of individual investors who have ridden the wave after the financial crisis. For those who have completely gotten out of equity stock market will stay out for years to come, regardless of market direction. They will remain supporters of the treasuries and bond market for the stable return. This also provides support for a low interest rate on treasuries after the Federal Reserve bond buying program ends in June.
Speculators are looking for quick profit in this turbulent market. This creates the condition for wealth transfer amid a global society with escalating productivity. On the other hand, continual technological innovation increases demand for skillful workers while reduces the need for general labour. Also, industrialization comes along with environmental pollution and habitat destruction. The polarization of workers skill also widens the gap between the groups resulting in concentration of wealth. The symptom is intensified after the financial crisis. Total wealth have already surpassed the peak before financial crisis. The sales of luxury merchandise is soaring. On the other hand, grassroots economy is muddling through in a cloud of uncertainties. Traders use the looming of a fragile employment environment for population at large to manipulate the market.
Where the Rich Are Keeping Their Money
There are more rich people today than ever before, and they are richer than ever before. The number of people with more than $1 million of investable assets jumped 8.3% last year to 10.9 million, their total wealth booming 10% to $42.7 trillion. That surpassed the previous peak in 2007. Recession? What recession?
Why the Rich Get Richer? What’s Worse Than a Depression?
There's also a growing chorus of experts who are warning of our greatest fear, a depression either in the form of hyperinflation like the German Weimar Republic experienced in the 1920s, or a deflationary depression like the Great Depression.
Speculators are looking for quick profit in this turbulent market. This creates the condition for wealth transfer amid a global society with escalating productivity. On the other hand, continual technological innovation increases demand for skillful workers while reduces the need for general labour. Also, industrialization comes along with environmental pollution and habitat destruction. The polarization of workers skill also widens the gap between the groups resulting in concentration of wealth. The symptom is intensified after the financial crisis. Total wealth have already surpassed the peak before financial crisis. The sales of luxury merchandise is soaring. On the other hand, grassroots economy is muddling through in a cloud of uncertainties. Traders use the looming of a fragile employment environment for population at large to manipulate the market.
Where the Rich Are Keeping Their Money
There are more rich people today than ever before, and they are richer than ever before. The number of people with more than $1 million of investable assets jumped 8.3% last year to 10.9 million, their total wealth booming 10% to $42.7 trillion. That surpassed the previous peak in 2007. Recession? What recession?
Why the Rich Get Richer? What’s Worse Than a Depression?
There's also a growing chorus of experts who are warning of our greatest fear, a depression either in the form of hyperinflation like the German Weimar Republic experienced in the 1920s, or a deflationary depression like the Great Depression.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Edith Widder: The Weird and Wonderful World of Bioluminescence
In the deep, dark ocean, many sea creatures make their own light for hunting, mating and self-defense. Bioluminescence expert Edith Widder was one of the first to film this glimmering world. At TED2011, she brings some of her glowing friends onstage
Friday, June 17, 2011
黑洞扯裂恆星 百萬年難得一見
（路透華盛頓16日電）天文學家今天表示，1個巨大黑洞扯裂如太陽大小的1顆恆星，產生奇幻且長久不散的伽馬輻射閃光，景象百萬年難得一見。
美國航空暨太空總署（NASA）的Swift衛星3月28日觀測到這個現象，當時它正在宇宙航行，尋找伽馬輻射閃光，如今閃光已經持續超過2個月。
更奇特的是，這個黑洞位於地球約40億光年外的天龍座，在這顆質量相當於太陽的恆星自投羅網前，黑洞少有動靜，也不太吞噬天體。中央社（翻譯）
美國航空暨太空總署（NASA）的Swift衛星3月28日觀測到這個現象，當時它正在宇宙航行，尋找伽馬輻射閃光，如今閃光已經持續超過2個月。
更奇特的是，這個黑洞位於地球約40億光年外的天龍座，在這顆質量相當於太陽的恆星自投羅網前，黑洞少有動靜，也不太吞噬天體。中央社（翻譯）
Market Makers Stop Selling; Traders Speculate More Decline
Equity stock market wavers on day traders and speculators while market makers finish selling. Upon expiration of derivatives for the month, the bearish positions of market makers are reduced. The next wave will be triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve bond buying program at the end of month. Market makers are now starting to build up new positions for a new round of game. In the first half of the year, when broad market index reaches year high, market participants gradually lose interest in equity stocks and the trading volume shrinks. Many institutions and traders find it more and more difficult to make money from the market. As a result, a force from connected market participants with common interest and strategy is created to manipulate the market for pure financial reward. So far the coalition has been successful to move the market as desired and to take profit. Individual investors lose confidence and trim the portfolio down to core holdings only. Positions acquired in the recent rally are liquidated to realize profit if any. At this moment, individual investors still hold tight on the core positions. But it is uncertain whether panic selling may be triggered on any fear. Institutional investors are also trading on hope to boost earnings. It is tough for small investors to make profit in such a highly manipulative environment from short term trades. However, the longer term outlook of equity stock market is not as pessimistic as perceived on market sentiment. Market makers exploit the herding behavior of investors to make quick profit. Patient investors are sitting on pile of cash and should take advantage of market trough to accumulate positions for long term payoff.
The sell-off may extend longer as individual investors are taking profit or stopping loss and day traders selling on the rebound. Aggressive market participants may even initiate short stock positions ignoring the associated risk. Investors should mitigate risk or wait on the side line until market stabilizes. Speculators find opportunity in this market environment.
5 Reasons to Stop Whining about Stocks
--1. "Eleven years, no profits in stocks." That's a long time to go without making any gains in stocks whatsoever. Not stunningly long, but comparable to the equity slumps of the 1930's and 1970's. Rob has gone back even further than that and found the same data. The market is due for a breakout higher if American history is our guide.
--2. "Huge cash pile in retail and institutional coffers." $2.7 trillion as of May, and it seems unlikely folks were pouring into stocks in June. This is roughly $1 trillion more than there was in cash in 2005. A trillion remains a big number, even by Capitol Hill standards.
--3. "The whole country is playing defensive." Money is pouring into bonds yielding nothing and dumping out of stocks that usually have some upside. Combine the lack of enthusiasm with the huge cash, and you've got kindling loaded up with gasoline. If and when we get a spark, the markets are going to heat up in a hurry.
--4. "Housing affordability." This is the highest it's been in almost 40 years. OK, I rent and have no plans to own a house in this lifetime. Still, you have to admit most houses are cheap relative to a few years ago.
--5. "Valuations of equities today are very attractive." You've heard the stats. Stocks are somewhere in the low teens in terms of trailing and forward P/E. You know the reason why is nobody believes earnings will come within a par-5 of estimates. You should also know the second part might, just might, be wrong. If it is, stocks will go higher without the bears.
Is the Bull Market Over?
TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that, following net outflows of $46.9 billion and $51.9 billion in 2009 and 2010, respectively, this year (through June 8) there has been a net inflow totaling $28.8 billion. So we no longer have the strong wall of worry that the bull market last year was able to climb.
Dow 10,000 and $60 Oil Coming Soon: Futures Trader
"You've got global tightening happening at exactly the wrong time," this Chicago-based former bond trader says, as well as "the removal of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus just when the market needs it most."
Feuerstein's outlooks are for sure the boldest I have heard anywhere, as he predicts "the Dow Industrials will trade decisively below 10,000 again by November 1st(that's just 4 1/2 months away, folks!)." And he's looking for the price of crude oil to tumble to $60 a barrel in the next 12 months.
3 Ways to Trade Stocks in a Volatile Market
Traders should brace for more volatility as June 30 approaches, given the state of confusion many market participants are in.
As a trader, you should always look for profitable opportunities based on probabilities and your own judgment. Here are three strategies to consider using whenever a market-changing event is looming:
1. Stay on the sidelines
If you're new to the stock market, you may want to stay safely on the sidelines when QE2 ends.
2. Fade the gap
Erik Swarts, an independent trader and creator of the research site Market Anthropology, has been actively shorting the market, "and it's been exceptional," he said.
Specifically, he has been "trading the gap," or shorting the market after it gaps up in the first few minutes following the open. "Although I'm skeptical of the market, I'm reluctant to get dogmatic on the bear side," Swarts noted.
Yet this strategy is not for beginners. "If I was inexperienced with this kind of market, I'd probably stay away and paper trade it," Swarts said. "There are too many cross-currents to navigate for the novice trader."
3. Use the options market
You can turn to the options market for protection or profit. For protection, buy protective puts on stocks you already own. If you want to speculate, buy puts on individual stocks or indexes. Although buying puts is less risky than shorting, it's still possible to lose your entire investment if you get the timing and direction wrong.
Even with the market's current weakness fueling pessimism, Baumohl said he believes the major U.S. stock indices will be higher at year-end.
The lesson for traders — rookies and veterans alike — is always be prepared. QE2 is going to create a big wake once it docks. If you use any of the above trading strategies, cut back on share size. Given the likelihood that the market becomes even more volatile this summer, this is not the time to take unnecessary risks.
How Low Can the Market Go?
With the stock market getting whacked yet again, technicals confirm that investors will be facing a tough summer. But even as the economic news gets uglier, now is the perfect time to identify the conditions that will signal an end to the decline in the months ahead.
For the current decline, a combination of support and waning momentum should be a good sign that the market is ready to bottom. This week, many indexes reached support but downside momentum was still strong. Further, some indexes, such as the Nasdaq, are flirting with downside breaks of their respective 200-day moving averages.
In other words, the stage is not yet set for a rebound. But when a bottom does draw near, chances are the market will give us several clues. It pays to know what they are before they happen.
QE3 may not be cure for economy's woes -- The Buzz
Investors will be watching for any clues about what the central bank plans to do now that its controversial bond purchasing program is about to wind down at the end of the month -- just as the economy has hit a rough patch.
The Fed wanted inflation. It got inflation. The $600 billion in new bond purchases through QE2 has been one reason why the dollar has weakened and commodity prices have surged.
Sure, the Fed talks a good game about wanting to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy.
And companies still seem more willing to use all the cash they've got sitting on their balance sheets -- which is earning next to zilch thanks to Fed policies by the way -- on mergers, stock buybacks and dividends. They are not using cash to hire enough workers to make a noticeable dent in the unemployment rate.
And the pathetic job market is also not ringing any inflation alarm bells either. As long as wage growth remains stagnant, inflation in a classic economic textbook sense won't rear its ugly head.
Make no mistake. The Fed probably won't sit idly by if the economy continues to stall. But more bond buying might not be the answer.
At a bare minimum, the Fed will keep interest rates near zero -- where they have been since December 2008 -- for the foreseeable future.
"I think at some point if the data continues to worsen, the Fed will have to do something," Fitzpatrick said. "The Fed may not call it QE3 but there will be more tools to get implemented. It's likely there will be more stimulus."
The Fed may even try new programs that could more directly impact job creation. Garett Jones, an economics professor with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, argued that the Fed could cut, or even outright eliminate, interest payments on excess bank reserves as a way to get financial institutions to lend more.
Jones argues that banks have no financial reason to lend out excess reserves as long as they get paid to sit on that cash. But if banks no longer are rewarded for being misers and actually lend more, particularly to small businesses, that could help stimulate job growth.
Derivatives Disaster Deferred -- For Now
The SEC and CFTC have given themselves a nearly six-month extension to work out how financial reform will be implemented. Whether that's enough is one question. The more basic one, posed by JPM's Dimon, is whether the benefit is worth the cost.
Jim Rogers: Dollar Is Doomed, Own Real Assets
When it comes to the U.S. dollar, Jim Rogers is "incredibly pessimistic about the long term, or even the intermediate term future." He's also long the dollar and feels there are "plenty of reasons that the U.S. dollar could rally."
How can he reconcile the two? Easy: he's a trader.
Where can a non-trader turn? Gold and hard commodities. Rogers regards both as a way to play Asian growth and avoid being stuck in dollars when the inevitable day of reckoning for the dollar arrives. Gold isn't a bubble, he says, despite being likely to end in a bubble blow-off, as so many long-term rallies do.
Shiller: Housing Could Fall Another 25% But Is Harder to Predict Than the Weather
The housing bubble of the early 2000s was "unprecedented" and the "biggest in U.S. history," according to Yale professor Robert Shiller.
As a result, he says "it's very hard to forecast" where housing goes from here, now that it has officially fallen into double-dip territory, based on the S&P Case-Shiller Index.
Housing "might fall [another] 10-25% in the next few years," but forecasting housing today is harder than predicting the weather, Shiller says. "I don't see how anyone can quantify a forecast because it's such an unusual event."
But the idea of the "American Dream" does have merit. "Home ownership pays a dividend in self respect," he says. Indeed, the idea of owning your own home has personal and societal benefits; the problem was the widespread misconception that housing was the path to wealth and financial freedom.
The Real Scandal at Goldman Sachs: The Stock Price
So imagine a bunch of senior Goldman executives hired an expensive portfolio manager and tasked him with creating positive returns. Next, imagine that the manager came back year after year and informed the executives that the best he could do was flat returns — but that he nonetheless deserved a multimillion-dollar payday. They'd laugh.
And yet while Goldman's returns have been subpar, CEO Lloyd Blankfein is getting paid like he's crushing the market. As the Financial Times reported this week, Blankfein "was paid $14m in 2010, more than 15 times his 2009 earnings, as senior bankers collectively shed their hair shirts." That' s just one year's compensation.
This highlights the real problem with Goldman Sachs. Like other investment banks, it isn't run for the benefit of its clients, or for the benefit of public shareholders, despite what its business principles say (#3: "Our goal is to provide superior returns to our shareholders.") No, Goldman and other publicly traded Wall Street firms are really ingenious machines for spinning revenues into compensation for insiders. If that means other stakeholders do poorly while executives make out great, that's just the way it goes.
This is really nothing new. In 1940 Fred Schwed, Jr., published the classic book on how brokers prosper while investors suffer. It was entitled Where Are the Customers' Yachts? Goldman Sachs stockholders might rightly ask Where Are the Shareholders' Yachts? The returns provided to them under Lloyd Blankfein in the past five years aren't enough to buy a ride on the Staten Island ferry.
Will Generous Pay on the Street Hit a Wall?
With Wall Street facing a lower-return future, the battle is on between employees and shareholders. At stake: Who gets the bigger slice of a shrinking pie.
So far, shareholders look to be getting the short end of the stick. Although there is growing angst on Wall Street about pay and job cuts, overall compensation ratios haven't dropped hugely when compared with long-term averages. And they have fallen far less than returns on equity at firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
This wouldn't be such an issue if investors felt returns were likely to soon rebound. That isn't the case and is likely why investors have dragged down shares in both Goldman and Morgan this year. The two now trade at lowly levels of 1.14 times tangible book value for Goldman and 0.89 times for Morgan.
Since the crisis, some have started to see Wall Street as a compensation machine rather than an engine of capitalism. To change that, compensation ratios, which now typically range between 40% and 45%—compared with 45% to 50% before the crisis—may have to fall yet further. Shareholders can't be expected to settle for table scraps forever.
As Profits Wane, Wall Street Braces for New Layoffs
Wall Street plans to get smaller this summer. Faced with weak markets and uncertainty over regulations, many of the biggest firms are preparing for deep cuts in jobs and other costs.
The cutback plans are emerging even as Wall Street firms have mostly recovered from the financial crisis and are reporting substantial profits again. But those profits are not as big as they were before the crisis, and it is expected that in the coming months it will be even more difficult for firms to make money. Worries about debt in Europe and the shape that the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul rules will ultimately take, combined with the usual summer doldrums, are prompting banks to act.
For those firms that depend on trading, it is clear how much the engines of Wall Street have slowed. Return on equity, the amount a firm earns on its common stock outstanding and an important measure of financial performance, has decreased significantly in the years since the credit crisis. Industrywide return on equity was 8.2 percent in 2010, down from 17.5 percent in 2005, according to Nomura.
Pawlenty's super-rich tax cuts
Hey rich folks, Tim Pawlenty wants to cut your taxes. A lot.
Under the terms of his recently revealed economic plan, Americans in the top 20% of earners would see their taxes cut by an average of $23,500, an 8.6 percentage point drop in their tax rate, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
And the top 1% would get an annual average reduction of $261,000, a 14.8 percentage point drop.
Meanwhile, Americans in the lowest 20% of income would see their taxes drop by an average of only $23, a 0.2 percentage point change in their tax rate.
"The revenue yield makes it an implausible tax system to implement," Rosenberg said.
The sell-off may extend longer as individual investors are taking profit or stopping loss and day traders selling on the rebound. Aggressive market participants may even initiate short stock positions ignoring the associated risk. Investors should mitigate risk or wait on the side line until market stabilizes. Speculators find opportunity in this market environment.
5 Reasons to Stop Whining about Stocks
--1. "Eleven years, no profits in stocks." That's a long time to go without making any gains in stocks whatsoever. Not stunningly long, but comparable to the equity slumps of the 1930's and 1970's. Rob has gone back even further than that and found the same data. The market is due for a breakout higher if American history is our guide.
--2. "Huge cash pile in retail and institutional coffers." $2.7 trillion as of May, and it seems unlikely folks were pouring into stocks in June. This is roughly $1 trillion more than there was in cash in 2005. A trillion remains a big number, even by Capitol Hill standards.
--3. "The whole country is playing defensive." Money is pouring into bonds yielding nothing and dumping out of stocks that usually have some upside. Combine the lack of enthusiasm with the huge cash, and you've got kindling loaded up with gasoline. If and when we get a spark, the markets are going to heat up in a hurry.
--4. "Housing affordability." This is the highest it's been in almost 40 years. OK, I rent and have no plans to own a house in this lifetime. Still, you have to admit most houses are cheap relative to a few years ago.
--5. "Valuations of equities today are very attractive." You've heard the stats. Stocks are somewhere in the low teens in terms of trailing and forward P/E. You know the reason why is nobody believes earnings will come within a par-5 of estimates. You should also know the second part might, just might, be wrong. If it is, stocks will go higher without the bears.
Is the Bull Market Over?
TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that, following net outflows of $46.9 billion and $51.9 billion in 2009 and 2010, respectively, this year (through June 8) there has been a net inflow totaling $28.8 billion. So we no longer have the strong wall of worry that the bull market last year was able to climb.
Dow 10,000 and $60 Oil Coming Soon: Futures Trader
"You've got global tightening happening at exactly the wrong time," this Chicago-based former bond trader says, as well as "the removal of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus just when the market needs it most."
Feuerstein's outlooks are for sure the boldest I have heard anywhere, as he predicts "the Dow Industrials will trade decisively below 10,000 again by November 1st(that's just 4 1/2 months away, folks!)." And he's looking for the price of crude oil to tumble to $60 a barrel in the next 12 months.
3 Ways to Trade Stocks in a Volatile Market
Traders should brace for more volatility as June 30 approaches, given the state of confusion many market participants are in.
As a trader, you should always look for profitable opportunities based on probabilities and your own judgment. Here are three strategies to consider using whenever a market-changing event is looming:
1. Stay on the sidelines
If you're new to the stock market, you may want to stay safely on the sidelines when QE2 ends.
2. Fade the gap
Erik Swarts, an independent trader and creator of the research site Market Anthropology, has been actively shorting the market, "and it's been exceptional," he said.
Specifically, he has been "trading the gap," or shorting the market after it gaps up in the first few minutes following the open. "Although I'm skeptical of the market, I'm reluctant to get dogmatic on the bear side," Swarts noted.
Yet this strategy is not for beginners. "If I was inexperienced with this kind of market, I'd probably stay away and paper trade it," Swarts said. "There are too many cross-currents to navigate for the novice trader."
3. Use the options market
You can turn to the options market for protection or profit. For protection, buy protective puts on stocks you already own. If you want to speculate, buy puts on individual stocks or indexes. Although buying puts is less risky than shorting, it's still possible to lose your entire investment if you get the timing and direction wrong.
Even with the market's current weakness fueling pessimism, Baumohl said he believes the major U.S. stock indices will be higher at year-end.
The lesson for traders — rookies and veterans alike — is always be prepared. QE2 is going to create a big wake once it docks. If you use any of the above trading strategies, cut back on share size. Given the likelihood that the market becomes even more volatile this summer, this is not the time to take unnecessary risks.
How Low Can the Market Go?
With the stock market getting whacked yet again, technicals confirm that investors will be facing a tough summer. But even as the economic news gets uglier, now is the perfect time to identify the conditions that will signal an end to the decline in the months ahead.
For the current decline, a combination of support and waning momentum should be a good sign that the market is ready to bottom. This week, many indexes reached support but downside momentum was still strong. Further, some indexes, such as the Nasdaq, are flirting with downside breaks of their respective 200-day moving averages.
In other words, the stage is not yet set for a rebound. But when a bottom does draw near, chances are the market will give us several clues. It pays to know what they are before they happen.
QE3 may not be cure for economy's woes -- The Buzz
Investors will be watching for any clues about what the central bank plans to do now that its controversial bond purchasing program is about to wind down at the end of the month -- just as the economy has hit a rough patch.
The Fed wanted inflation. It got inflation. The $600 billion in new bond purchases through QE2 has been one reason why the dollar has weakened and commodity prices have surged.
Sure, the Fed talks a good game about wanting to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy.
And companies still seem more willing to use all the cash they've got sitting on their balance sheets -- which is earning next to zilch thanks to Fed policies by the way -- on mergers, stock buybacks and dividends. They are not using cash to hire enough workers to make a noticeable dent in the unemployment rate.
And the pathetic job market is also not ringing any inflation alarm bells either. As long as wage growth remains stagnant, inflation in a classic economic textbook sense won't rear its ugly head.
Make no mistake. The Fed probably won't sit idly by if the economy continues to stall. But more bond buying might not be the answer.
At a bare minimum, the Fed will keep interest rates near zero -- where they have been since December 2008 -- for the foreseeable future.
"I think at some point if the data continues to worsen, the Fed will have to do something," Fitzpatrick said. "The Fed may not call it QE3 but there will be more tools to get implemented. It's likely there will be more stimulus."
The Fed may even try new programs that could more directly impact job creation. Garett Jones, an economics professor with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, argued that the Fed could cut, or even outright eliminate, interest payments on excess bank reserves as a way to get financial institutions to lend more.
Jones argues that banks have no financial reason to lend out excess reserves as long as they get paid to sit on that cash. But if banks no longer are rewarded for being misers and actually lend more, particularly to small businesses, that could help stimulate job growth.
Derivatives Disaster Deferred -- For Now
The SEC and CFTC have given themselves a nearly six-month extension to work out how financial reform will be implemented. Whether that's enough is one question. The more basic one, posed by JPM's Dimon, is whether the benefit is worth the cost.
Jim Rogers: Dollar Is Doomed, Own Real Assets
When it comes to the U.S. dollar, Jim Rogers is "incredibly pessimistic about the long term, or even the intermediate term future." He's also long the dollar and feels there are "plenty of reasons that the U.S. dollar could rally."
How can he reconcile the two? Easy: he's a trader.
Where can a non-trader turn? Gold and hard commodities. Rogers regards both as a way to play Asian growth and avoid being stuck in dollars when the inevitable day of reckoning for the dollar arrives. Gold isn't a bubble, he says, despite being likely to end in a bubble blow-off, as so many long-term rallies do.
Shiller: Housing Could Fall Another 25% But Is Harder to Predict Than the Weather
The housing bubble of the early 2000s was "unprecedented" and the "biggest in U.S. history," according to Yale professor Robert Shiller.
As a result, he says "it's very hard to forecast" where housing goes from here, now that it has officially fallen into double-dip territory, based on the S&P Case-Shiller Index.
Housing "might fall [another] 10-25% in the next few years," but forecasting housing today is harder than predicting the weather, Shiller says. "I don't see how anyone can quantify a forecast because it's such an unusual event."
But the idea of the "American Dream" does have merit. "Home ownership pays a dividend in self respect," he says. Indeed, the idea of owning your own home has personal and societal benefits; the problem was the widespread misconception that housing was the path to wealth and financial freedom.
The Real Scandal at Goldman Sachs: The Stock Price
So imagine a bunch of senior Goldman executives hired an expensive portfolio manager and tasked him with creating positive returns. Next, imagine that the manager came back year after year and informed the executives that the best he could do was flat returns — but that he nonetheless deserved a multimillion-dollar payday. They'd laugh.
And yet while Goldman's returns have been subpar, CEO Lloyd Blankfein is getting paid like he's crushing the market. As the Financial Times reported this week, Blankfein "was paid $14m in 2010, more than 15 times his 2009 earnings, as senior bankers collectively shed their hair shirts." That' s just one year's compensation.
This highlights the real problem with Goldman Sachs. Like other investment banks, it isn't run for the benefit of its clients, or for the benefit of public shareholders, despite what its business principles say (#3: "Our goal is to provide superior returns to our shareholders.") No, Goldman and other publicly traded Wall Street firms are really ingenious machines for spinning revenues into compensation for insiders. If that means other stakeholders do poorly while executives make out great, that's just the way it goes.
This is really nothing new. In 1940 Fred Schwed, Jr., published the classic book on how brokers prosper while investors suffer. It was entitled Where Are the Customers' Yachts? Goldman Sachs stockholders might rightly ask Where Are the Shareholders' Yachts? The returns provided to them under Lloyd Blankfein in the past five years aren't enough to buy a ride on the Staten Island ferry.
Will Generous Pay on the Street Hit a Wall?
With Wall Street facing a lower-return future, the battle is on between employees and shareholders. At stake: Who gets the bigger slice of a shrinking pie.
So far, shareholders look to be getting the short end of the stick. Although there is growing angst on Wall Street about pay and job cuts, overall compensation ratios haven't dropped hugely when compared with long-term averages. And they have fallen far less than returns on equity at firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
This wouldn't be such an issue if investors felt returns were likely to soon rebound. That isn't the case and is likely why investors have dragged down shares in both Goldman and Morgan this year. The two now trade at lowly levels of 1.14 times tangible book value for Goldman and 0.89 times for Morgan.
Since the crisis, some have started to see Wall Street as a compensation machine rather than an engine of capitalism. To change that, compensation ratios, which now typically range between 40% and 45%—compared with 45% to 50% before the crisis—may have to fall yet further. Shareholders can't be expected to settle for table scraps forever.
As Profits Wane, Wall Street Braces for New Layoffs
Wall Street plans to get smaller this summer. Faced with weak markets and uncertainty over regulations, many of the biggest firms are preparing for deep cuts in jobs and other costs.
The cutback plans are emerging even as Wall Street firms have mostly recovered from the financial crisis and are reporting substantial profits again. But those profits are not as big as they were before the crisis, and it is expected that in the coming months it will be even more difficult for firms to make money. Worries about debt in Europe and the shape that the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul rules will ultimately take, combined with the usual summer doldrums, are prompting banks to act.
For those firms that depend on trading, it is clear how much the engines of Wall Street have slowed. Return on equity, the amount a firm earns on its common stock outstanding and an important measure of financial performance, has decreased significantly in the years since the credit crisis. Industrywide return on equity was 8.2 percent in 2010, down from 17.5 percent in 2005, according to Nomura.
Pawlenty's super-rich tax cuts
Hey rich folks, Tim Pawlenty wants to cut your taxes. A lot.
Under the terms of his recently revealed economic plan, Americans in the top 20% of earners would see their taxes cut by an average of $23,500, an 8.6 percentage point drop in their tax rate, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
And the top 1% would get an annual average reduction of $261,000, a 14.8 percentage point drop.
Meanwhile, Americans in the lowest 20% of income would see their taxes drop by an average of only $23, a 0.2 percentage point change in their tax rate.
"The revenue yield makes it an implausible tax system to implement," Rosenberg said.
Monday, June 13, 2011
2015年料竣工 可容萬三員工 喬布斯建UFO蘋果總部
(綜合報道)(星島日報報道)蘋果公司行政總裁喬布斯宣布可容納一萬三千人的UFO（不明飛行物）形新總部建築計畫，這個預計在二○一五年落成的項目是喬布斯空前的蘋果樂園夢想。喬布斯承諾，會把該項目打造成全球最好辦公樓，躋身教材建築。
喬布斯日前用幻燈片向總部所在地古柏蒂奴（Cupertino）的市議會以及全世界，描述建築外形和解釋設計理念。蘋果新總部將落成在蘋果不久前購入的惠普（HP）公司舊址。喬布斯計畫將把散落在現總部大樓周圍的蘋果員工聚集於此處辦公室，面積將達三百一十萬平方呎。
像該公司出產的各款高科技產品一樣，新大樓的設計也創意十足。喬布斯說，蘋果公司將來的總部大樓，好像一艘太空船降落地球一樣。他說，這將是全球最好的辦公樓，應被列入教材建築，供建築學生參觀。
設咖啡室及健身中心
喬布斯表示，全樓將採用玻璃外牆，這項設計借鑑了全世界蘋果零售店的建築風格，請來世界頂尖建築師設計。大樓安裝的是全球單塊面積最大的玻璃外牆，且每一塊的弧度都是為該建築物度身訂造。說這座新總部主樓是蘋果樂園一點也不過分。喬布斯表示，除了研發中心、測試中心，該樓還將備有可容納三千人的咖啡餐廳、健身中心，甚至大禮堂。
用八成佔地植樹
整體設計除了主樓之外，還包括地下停車場和一座四層樓的停車建築。目前該地塊有百分之二的綠化面積，包括三千棵樹木。大部分面積為停車場，新設計將會令停車佔地縮減九成，蘋果計畫用八成的佔地來植樹，預計樹木將達到六千七百棵。
喬布斯還準備用清潔能源供給新總部電力，因此特設了能源中心。他說，將使用天然氣發電，成本更低，同時還更清潔，預計碳排放量將下降三成。工程預計二○一二年秋季開工，二○一五年可使用。
(星島日報記者 王碩舸矽谷報道)
喬布斯日前用幻燈片向總部所在地古柏蒂奴（Cupertino）的市議會以及全世界，描述建築外形和解釋設計理念。蘋果新總部將落成在蘋果不久前購入的惠普（HP）公司舊址。喬布斯計畫將把散落在現總部大樓周圍的蘋果員工聚集於此處辦公室，面積將達三百一十萬平方呎。
像該公司出產的各款高科技產品一樣，新大樓的設計也創意十足。喬布斯說，蘋果公司將來的總部大樓，好像一艘太空船降落地球一樣。他說，這將是全球最好的辦公樓，應被列入教材建築，供建築學生參觀。
設咖啡室及健身中心
喬布斯表示，全樓將採用玻璃外牆，這項設計借鑑了全世界蘋果零售店的建築風格，請來世界頂尖建築師設計。大樓安裝的是全球單塊面積最大的玻璃外牆，且每一塊的弧度都是為該建築物度身訂造。說這座新總部主樓是蘋果樂園一點也不過分。喬布斯表示，除了研發中心、測試中心，該樓還將備有可容納三千人的咖啡餐廳、健身中心，甚至大禮堂。
用八成佔地植樹
整體設計除了主樓之外，還包括地下停車場和一座四層樓的停車建築。目前該地塊有百分之二的綠化面積，包括三千棵樹木。大部分面積為停車場，新設計將會令停車佔地縮減九成，蘋果計畫用八成的佔地來植樹，預計樹木將達到六千七百棵。
喬布斯還準備用清潔能源供給新總部電力，因此特設了能源中心。他說，將使用天然氣發電，成本更低，同時還更清潔，預計碳排放量將下降三成。工程預計二○一二年秋季開工，二○一五年可使用。
(星島日報記者 王碩舸矽谷報道)
Investors Selling Continues
Equity market declines further on investors selling. Individual investors and day traders are selling more heavily than in the previous week. Market makers are already thin on portfolio holding and no longer leads the selling.
As the end of Federal Reserve bond buying program is approaching, market participants are preparing for a headwind. The large amount of capital flow may skew the market. The release of second quarter earnings will drive market volatility.
Solving the Mystery of Corporate Cash Hoarding
Dividends are rising at many of our largest public companies, but cash accumulation is rising even faster. The dividend ratio-the percentage of earnings paid out to investors-has been falling for four quarters.
It's now at its lowest level since 1936.
The "cash hoading" also means that companies are not expanding all that fast. That may also reflect a fearful view of the future.
Ordinarily, falling interest rates indicate that there is an abundance of savings available for current investment and future consumption. But our low interest rates are very obviously a product of the Fed's attempt to stimulate the economy. Executives at our most sophisticated companies are not under the impression that Americans are saving so much that they'll have a lot of available cash to spend in the future.
Bank Said No? Hedge Funds Fill a Void in Lending
With traditional lenders still avoiding risky borrowers in the wake of the financial crisis, hedge funds and other opportunistic investors are stepping into the void. They are going after midsize businesses that cannot easily raise money in the bond markets like their bigger brethren.
These lenders of last resort typically charge interest rates that are several percentage points higher than banks. Loaded up with high-cost loans, borrowers could find themselves falling deeper into debt or worse, into bankruptcy.
The lending activity is also stoking fears that speculative activities - like those that contributed to the crisis - are shifting from banks to loosely regulated firms that play by their own rules. While policy makers are moving to increase capital and other standards for banks to prevent another disaster, hedge funds and the like are not subject to the same oversight.
Stockholders Get Richer -- Ain't We Got Fun
The more things change, the more they stay the same, according to the old French saying. That's evident in the Federal Reserve's latest assessment of the financial well-being of U.S. households. There's been a change for the better in their aggregate net worth, but for the average American, it's been more of the same -- a further decline in their wealth, which is tied mainly to housing.
As if it needs repeating, the changes in these asset values have a disparate impact on different income and wealth classes. Even with the broadening of the so-called investor class, holdings of equities remains concentrated among the well-off. To the extent the middle class and lower own any assets, they consist mainly of the roof over their head.
So far, the policy response to the credit crisis and its aftermath has been successful mainly in terms of restoring asset values. Even so, the net worth of U.S. households still is 10% lower than in 2007, a decline of some $6 trillion. Meanwhile, real family incomes have fallen 2% since 2000 while corporate profits have increased 70% over the span.
As the end of Federal Reserve bond buying program is approaching, market participants are preparing for a headwind. The large amount of capital flow may skew the market. The release of second quarter earnings will drive market volatility.
Solving the Mystery of Corporate Cash Hoarding
Dividends are rising at many of our largest public companies, but cash accumulation is rising even faster. The dividend ratio-the percentage of earnings paid out to investors-has been falling for four quarters.
It's now at its lowest level since 1936.
The "cash hoading" also means that companies are not expanding all that fast. That may also reflect a fearful view of the future.
Ordinarily, falling interest rates indicate that there is an abundance of savings available for current investment and future consumption. But our low interest rates are very obviously a product of the Fed's attempt to stimulate the economy. Executives at our most sophisticated companies are not under the impression that Americans are saving so much that they'll have a lot of available cash to spend in the future.
Bank Said No? Hedge Funds Fill a Void in Lending
With traditional lenders still avoiding risky borrowers in the wake of the financial crisis, hedge funds and other opportunistic investors are stepping into the void. They are going after midsize businesses that cannot easily raise money in the bond markets like their bigger brethren.
These lenders of last resort typically charge interest rates that are several percentage points higher than banks. Loaded up with high-cost loans, borrowers could find themselves falling deeper into debt or worse, into bankruptcy.
The lending activity is also stoking fears that speculative activities - like those that contributed to the crisis - are shifting from banks to loosely regulated firms that play by their own rules. While policy makers are moving to increase capital and other standards for banks to prevent another disaster, hedge funds and the like are not subject to the same oversight.
Stockholders Get Richer -- Ain't We Got Fun
The more things change, the more they stay the same, according to the old French saying. That's evident in the Federal Reserve's latest assessment of the financial well-being of U.S. households. There's been a change for the better in their aggregate net worth, but for the average American, it's been more of the same -- a further decline in their wealth, which is tied mainly to housing.
As if it needs repeating, the changes in these asset values have a disparate impact on different income and wealth classes. Even with the broadening of the so-called investor class, holdings of equities remains concentrated among the well-off. To the extent the middle class and lower own any assets, they consist mainly of the roof over their head.
So far, the policy response to the credit crisis and its aftermath has been successful mainly in terms of restoring asset values. Even so, the net worth of U.S. households still is 10% lower than in 2007, a decline of some $6 trillion. Meanwhile, real family incomes have fallen 2% since 2000 while corporate profits have increased 70% over the span.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
星雲超級電腦落戶深圳
中國第一部實測性能超千萬億次的超級電腦曙光「星雲」目前正在深圳超算中心安裝，將於今年7月份正式運行。
曙光「星雲」由坐落在天津濱海高新技術產業開發區內的曙光公司天津產業基地研製生產，2010年6月1日正式對外發表，是中國第一部、世界第三台實測雙精度浮點計算超過千萬億次的超級電腦。在2010年11月17日發布的第36屆全球超級電腦500強排名中，名列第三位。
曙光公司總裁歷軍表示，「星雲」是面向未來「雲計算」環境設計的超級電腦系統，強調系統的均衡設計和資源動態調度能力，將成為中國新一代超級雲計算中心建設的主力機種。
據曙光公司介紹，按照原計劃，「星雲」應該在2010年11月中旬交付深圳超算中心投入商業應用，但由於深圳的機房工程原因，再加上氣候因素影響，「星雲」交付時間一再被推遲。經過與深圳方面溝通，「星雲」暫時在天津「異地」為深圳超算中心工作。由於目前安裝條件已具備，今年5月，「星雲」運抵深圳超算中心，並開始安裝和調試。
國家超級計算深圳中心是國家在深圳佈局建設的第一個，也是深圳建市以來單個投資額最大的重大科技基礎項目。
歷軍表示，「星雲」在深圳超算中心運行後，將為深圳提高信息產業綜合實力、政府服務職能信息化水準，增強城市持續創新能力和核心競爭力提供強大的技術支撐。同時，對於推動深圳產業轉型、將深圳打造成為中國乃至亞太地區雲計算發展的領先城市也同樣有著深遠影響。
據了解，借助於「星雲」的國家超級計算深圳中心將立足深圳，服務華南，面向港、澳、台及東南亞，將建成四大平台：一是科技服務平台，為氣象、金融等行業提供公共信息服務；二是產業創新平台，為企業提供高性能計算和數據處理解決方案；三是科技研發平台，為高性能計算應用軟件研發提供支撐；四是人才聚集平台，支持華南地區進行人才培養、技術交流與國際合作等活動。
（新華社）
曙光「星雲」由坐落在天津濱海高新技術產業開發區內的曙光公司天津產業基地研製生產，2010年6月1日正式對外發表，是中國第一部、世界第三台實測雙精度浮點計算超過千萬億次的超級電腦。在2010年11月17日發布的第36屆全球超級電腦500強排名中，名列第三位。
曙光公司總裁歷軍表示，「星雲」是面向未來「雲計算」環境設計的超級電腦系統，強調系統的均衡設計和資源動態調度能力，將成為中國新一代超級雲計算中心建設的主力機種。
據曙光公司介紹，按照原計劃，「星雲」應該在2010年11月中旬交付深圳超算中心投入商業應用，但由於深圳的機房工程原因，再加上氣候因素影響，「星雲」交付時間一再被推遲。經過與深圳方面溝通，「星雲」暫時在天津「異地」為深圳超算中心工作。由於目前安裝條件已具備，今年5月，「星雲」運抵深圳超算中心，並開始安裝和調試。
國家超級計算深圳中心是國家在深圳佈局建設的第一個，也是深圳建市以來單個投資額最大的重大科技基礎項目。
歷軍表示，「星雲」在深圳超算中心運行後，將為深圳提高信息產業綜合實力、政府服務職能信息化水準，增強城市持續創新能力和核心競爭力提供強大的技術支撐。同時，對於推動深圳產業轉型、將深圳打造成為中國乃至亞太地區雲計算發展的領先城市也同樣有著深遠影響。
據了解，借助於「星雲」的國家超級計算深圳中心將立足深圳，服務華南，面向港、澳、台及東南亞，將建成四大平台：一是科技服務平台，為氣象、金融等行業提供公共信息服務；二是產業創新平台，為企業提供高性能計算和數據處理解決方案；三是科技研發平台，為高性能計算應用軟件研發提供支撐；四是人才聚集平台，支持華南地區進行人才培養、技術交流與國際合作等活動。
（新華社）
Sunday, June 5, 2011
「渾水」發魔咒 沽神輸25億 加國上市本港企業 嘉漢林業被指涉誇大資產
【明報專訊】以香港為基地、近日屢次揭發中國企業帳目問題的渾水研究（Muddy Waters Research）日前發表報告，指在加拿大上市的嘉漢林業，涉嫌虛報資產價值及錯誤申報投資，觸發股價兩天大瀉71%，連帶嘉漢林業的最大單一股東、有「沽神」之稱的約翰保爾森亦損手，彭博估計，兩交易日「沽神」旗下基金損失3.17億加元（約25.2億元）。
嘉漢周五發出聲明，反駁渾水研究的指控失實，承諾成立獨立董事委員會調查相關指控，該公司並指渾水研究在事件中透過沽空獲取巨利。
海外上市中國企業的審計問題近日備受關注，市傳美國證交會（SEC）擬向會計事務所，了解在美國上市的中國企業的審計工作有沒有問題。有「渾水金童」之稱的Carson Block，最近便接連揭發中國企業的帳目，每次例必觸發股價暴瀉（見另文）。
被指土地不符政府紀錄
事緣渾水研究於上周四發表報告，指稱嘉漢林業誇大其擁有在雲南省林業資產值及錯誤申報投資，建議「強烈沽售」，指該公司申報持有雲南臨滄市的土地與該市的紀錄不符，並認為其每股應有價值少於1加元（該報告發表前1天仍報18.21加元），並同時沽空嘉漢林業股份，消息隨即令其股價3日大瀉近七成，至上周五只報5.23加元。一家市值原本近50億加元（398億港元）的公司，現只剩下12.8億加元（101億港元）。
約翰保爾森 上周五減持30%持股
作為嘉漢林業的單一最大股東、「沽神」約翰保爾森旗下基金，向客戶發出通知，指上周五已減持嘉漢林業約30%持股。「沽神」於今年4月下旬仍持有3470萬股嘉漢林業，按當時股價推算股份價值達8.16億加元（約64.6億港元），但若按上周五收市價及減持後的價值推算，其持股只餘下1.82億加元（約14.47億港元）。
嘉漢林業主席陳德源為本港著名商人，現年59歲，最為人熟悉是1993年開始在《信報》發表專欄文章，筆名「管仲連」，借管仲及魯仲連二古人為名，汲取二人的思想精髓談管理。
嘉漢主席陳德源：為利益危言聳聽
陳德源在上周五的聲明中，指渾水研究危言聳聽的手段，明顯是為了本身利益，他希望稍後可以提供更多資料反駁他們的指控。
陳從商生涯充滿高低起伏，出生於本港平民區，70年代末畢業於當時浸會學院社會學系，曾任職「賭王」何鴻燊旗下珍寶海鮮舫的高層，並於80年代初投身商界，但於80年代末經歷生意失敗。
陳德源於93年重返內地從事種植桉樹的生意，94年成立嘉漢林業，並於95年安排嘉漢於多倫多(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)交易所上市，其後業務遍及廣東、廣西、江西及江蘇等地，成為內地大型私人林業公司。98年分拆子公司綠森（0094）在本港上市，嘉漢林業現持有綠森58.58%。
明報記者謝偉龍報道
嘉漢周五發出聲明，反駁渾水研究的指控失實，承諾成立獨立董事委員會調查相關指控，該公司並指渾水研究在事件中透過沽空獲取巨利。
海外上市中國企業的審計問題近日備受關注，市傳美國證交會（SEC）擬向會計事務所，了解在美國上市的中國企業的審計工作有沒有問題。有「渾水金童」之稱的Carson Block，最近便接連揭發中國企業的帳目，每次例必觸發股價暴瀉（見另文）。
被指土地不符政府紀錄
事緣渾水研究於上周四發表報告，指稱嘉漢林業誇大其擁有在雲南省林業資產值及錯誤申報投資，建議「強烈沽售」，指該公司申報持有雲南臨滄市的土地與該市的紀錄不符，並認為其每股應有價值少於1加元（該報告發表前1天仍報18.21加元），並同時沽空嘉漢林業股份，消息隨即令其股價3日大瀉近七成，至上周五只報5.23加元。一家市值原本近50億加元（398億港元）的公司，現只剩下12.8億加元（101億港元）。
約翰保爾森 上周五減持30%持股
作為嘉漢林業的單一最大股東、「沽神」約翰保爾森旗下基金，向客戶發出通知，指上周五已減持嘉漢林業約30%持股。「沽神」於今年4月下旬仍持有3470萬股嘉漢林業，按當時股價推算股份價值達8.16億加元（約64.6億港元），但若按上周五收市價及減持後的價值推算，其持股只餘下1.82億加元（約14.47億港元）。
嘉漢林業主席陳德源為本港著名商人，現年59歲，最為人熟悉是1993年開始在《信報》發表專欄文章，筆名「管仲連」，借管仲及魯仲連二古人為名，汲取二人的思想精髓談管理。
嘉漢主席陳德源：為利益危言聳聽
陳德源在上周五的聲明中，指渾水研究危言聳聽的手段，明顯是為了本身利益，他希望稍後可以提供更多資料反駁他們的指控。
陳從商生涯充滿高低起伏，出生於本港平民區，70年代末畢業於當時浸會學院社會學系，曾任職「賭王」何鴻燊旗下珍寶海鮮舫的高層，並於80年代初投身商界，但於80年代末經歷生意失敗。
陳德源於93年重返內地從事種植桉樹的生意，94年成立嘉漢林業，並於95年安排嘉漢於多倫多(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)交易所上市，其後業務遍及廣東、廣西、江西及江蘇等地，成為內地大型私人林業公司。98年分拆子公司綠森（0094）在本港上市，嘉漢林業現持有綠森58.58%。
明報記者謝偉龍報道
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Groupon IPO集59億 科網熱指標
【經濟日報專訊】團購網站Groupon正式申請上市，初步集資7.5億美元（約58.5億港元），最終或增至30億美元，為2000年科網泡沫爆破以來集資額最大的科網企業，外間更料其估值已升至200億至300億美元之間。
不過，一如近期幾隻上市的科網新貴，Groupon至今仍處於虧損狀態，故其上市後的股價表現，勢必成為新一輪科網熱潮是否過熱，甚至泡沫是否形成的重要指標。
Groupon成立短短兩年半，發展一日千里，利用嶄新網絡銷售模式與當地商戶合作，向用家提供折扣交易，從中賺取佣金。公司與43個國家及地區近5.7萬個商戶簽訂折扣協議，可從每筆交易中抽佣，幅度介乎3至5成。截至3月底，Groupon已售出逾7,000萬張團購券。
靠賺佣金 首季蝕8.9億
行政總裁梅森（Andrew Mason）沒有談及公司的虧損，但對公司甚有信心，相信能與一眾科網企業競爭。因公司與商戶擁有良好關係，其他競爭者難以取代其地位。
申請上市文件顯示，Groupon今年首季營業收入雖增至6.447億美元，但仍虧損1.139億美元（約8.9億港元）， 去年全年更虧損4.134億美元。
Groupon未見盈利，估值卻被捧上天，連同上月掛牌的商業社交網LinkedIn首日上市股價翻倍，投資者的熾熱認購程度更與千禧年科網股爆破前相似，難免令人質疑科網泡沫是否重現。
競爭加劇 雅虎前車可鑑
事實上，在Google、Facebook及LivingSocial相繼加入團購戰場，Groupon的市場佔有率以至邊際利潤勢必下降，但最終會否踏上雅虎（Yahoo）逐步被邊緣化的不歸路，還是像亞馬遜般領先，關鍵在乎其能否保持其領導地位。此外，Groupon不諱言投放大量金錢於企業開支上，如市場推廣、聘請營業員和進行併購，以實現增長。公司表示窺伺當中商機，着眼於長期增長，而暫時忽略短期影響。
不過，一如近期幾隻上市的科網新貴，Groupon至今仍處於虧損狀態，故其上市後的股價表現，勢必成為新一輪科網熱潮是否過熱，甚至泡沫是否形成的重要指標。
Groupon成立短短兩年半，發展一日千里，利用嶄新網絡銷售模式與當地商戶合作，向用家提供折扣交易，從中賺取佣金。公司與43個國家及地區近5.7萬個商戶簽訂折扣協議，可從每筆交易中抽佣，幅度介乎3至5成。截至3月底，Groupon已售出逾7,000萬張團購券。
靠賺佣金 首季蝕8.9億
行政總裁梅森（Andrew Mason）沒有談及公司的虧損，但對公司甚有信心，相信能與一眾科網企業競爭。因公司與商戶擁有良好關係，其他競爭者難以取代其地位。
申請上市文件顯示，Groupon今年首季營業收入雖增至6.447億美元，但仍虧損1.139億美元（約8.9億港元）， 去年全年更虧損4.134億美元。
Groupon未見盈利，估值卻被捧上天，連同上月掛牌的商業社交網LinkedIn首日上市股價翻倍，投資者的熾熱認購程度更與千禧年科網股爆破前相似，難免令人質疑科網泡沫是否重現。
競爭加劇 雅虎前車可鑑
事實上，在Google、Facebook及LivingSocial相繼加入團購戰場，Groupon的市場佔有率以至邊際利潤勢必下降，但最終會否踏上雅虎（Yahoo）逐步被邊緣化的不歸路，還是像亞馬遜般領先，關鍵在乎其能否保持其領導地位。此外，Groupon不諱言投放大量金錢於企業開支上，如市場推廣、聘請營業員和進行併購，以實現增長。公司表示窺伺當中商機，着眼於長期增長，而暫時忽略短期影響。
美漢入稟分fb一半股權 稱擁分股證據 朱克伯格：剪貼簽名揑造合約
【明報專訊】美國一名男子向聯邦法院提出訴訟，稱自己最少擁有facebook（fb）50%股權，變相要分創辦人朱克伯格一半身家，他還聲稱有當年和朱克伯格的電郵通訊紀錄及合約為證。facebook周四反駁，直斥這是「無恥且蠻橫的欺詐行為」，要求法庭立即對這名男子提交的證供文件作核查，以及驗筆迹。朱克伯格稱：「當測試證實所有這些文件都是偽造時，這宗訴訟就可終結。」
fb在2004年正式創辦，現擁有逾6億會員，《福布斯》去年9月指出，朱克伯格的資產淨值估計至少達69億美元（538億港元）。紐約男子切利亞（Paul Ceglia）是於去年6月，向法院提出這宗驚世爭產官司。他聲稱在2003年4月期間，曾和朱克伯格簽合約，設計一個名為「The Face Book」或者「The Page Book」的網站，現要求依合約「取回」fb一半股權。
曾簽合作協定 無關fb
外界最初對說法持質疑態度，但在他聘請著名律師事務所打官司後，人們開始認真起來。切利亞的律師已提供當時據稱出自朱克伯格的電郵備份，以及共同簽署的合約作為「證據」。朱克伯格和fb網站周四發布長達23頁的回應聲明，稱切利亞的指控奠基於「竄改合約以及揑造的不實證據」。朱克伯格在文件中承認，當年曾與切利亞簽署過一份協定，但協定的內容僅與他當年在一間小型公司StreetFax.com所做的工作相關，該合約簽訂時間為2003年，「切利亞沉默長達7年，到2010年突然採取法律行動」，動機可疑。
fb：入稟者是「知名騙徒」
fb指控切利亞是「欺詐慣犯，先前已有許多案底紀錄」。fb稱，他們聘請的私家偵探調查機構Kroll Associates對切利亞的過去，展開了深入調查。根據facebook提交的文件，Kroll發現了切利亞更多的劣迹，包括在紐約和佛州的多宗土地開發造假案；紐約州總檢察長在2009年時曾起訴切利亞，因其號稱出售木質顆粒燃料，收取顧客超過20萬美元後，並未送出貨品或退款。fb指切利亞是「曾被定罪的知名騙徒，過去10年都是在訛詐別人」。
facebook強調，切利亞持有的「分身家合約」，是剪貼而成，電郵也全是揑造，「整宗訴訟是場騙局」。fb周四就所有權糾紛，向法院提交了快速取證的申請，朱克伯格的律師團要求美國紐約水牛城聯邦地方法院下令切利亞出示合約及電郵正本，及准許檢查他所有的電腦，以尋找相關證據。
法新社/路透社/英國廣播公司
fb在2004年正式創辦，現擁有逾6億會員，《福布斯》去年9月指出，朱克伯格的資產淨值估計至少達69億美元（538億港元）。紐約男子切利亞（Paul Ceglia）是於去年6月，向法院提出這宗驚世爭產官司。他聲稱在2003年4月期間，曾和朱克伯格簽合約，設計一個名為「The Face Book」或者「The Page Book」的網站，現要求依合約「取回」fb一半股權。
曾簽合作協定 無關fb
外界最初對說法持質疑態度，但在他聘請著名律師事務所打官司後，人們開始認真起來。切利亞的律師已提供當時據稱出自朱克伯格的電郵備份，以及共同簽署的合約作為「證據」。朱克伯格和fb網站周四發布長達23頁的回應聲明，稱切利亞的指控奠基於「竄改合約以及揑造的不實證據」。朱克伯格在文件中承認，當年曾與切利亞簽署過一份協定，但協定的內容僅與他當年在一間小型公司StreetFax.com所做的工作相關，該合約簽訂時間為2003年，「切利亞沉默長達7年，到2010年突然採取法律行動」，動機可疑。
fb：入稟者是「知名騙徒」
fb指控切利亞是「欺詐慣犯，先前已有許多案底紀錄」。fb稱，他們聘請的私家偵探調查機構Kroll Associates對切利亞的過去，展開了深入調查。根據facebook提交的文件，Kroll發現了切利亞更多的劣迹，包括在紐約和佛州的多宗土地開發造假案；紐約州總檢察長在2009年時曾起訴切利亞，因其號稱出售木質顆粒燃料，收取顧客超過20萬美元後，並未送出貨品或退款。fb指切利亞是「曾被定罪的知名騙徒，過去10年都是在訛詐別人」。
facebook強調，切利亞持有的「分身家合約」，是剪貼而成，電郵也全是揑造，「整宗訴訟是場騙局」。fb周四就所有權糾紛，向法院提交了快速取證的申請，朱克伯格的律師團要求美國紐約水牛城聯邦地方法院下令切利亞出示合約及電郵正本，及准許檢查他所有的電腦，以尋找相關證據。
法新社/路透社/英國廣播公司
Friday, June 3, 2011
Panic Investors Selling; Patient Investors Waiting
Equity stock market records five consecutive weeks of decline. Individual investors start to worry about the portfolio and further trim down positions. Market makers have created a selling momentum to make profit from derivatives. Patient investors are watching for symptom of market bottom.
With plenty of cash on hand, well-off investors may begin loading on portfolio when market stabilizes. Market makers are already thin on stock positions and individual investors are taking profit on the recent rally but still keeping the core positions. Day traders are riding on the downtrend speculation created by market makers. Market may continue to decline as investors hesitate to buy despite attractive valuation. With large amount of capital flow seeking return, market may suddenly rebound when investors return to optimism.
Why safe corporate bonds aren't so smart anymore
Companies deemed good for the money are raising trillions selling bonds to investors who can't seem to get enough of them.
Some bonds are throwing off interest so puny that investors are already losing money to inflation. Others pay higher rates but won't return your money for more years than you're likely to live.
Stocks were the primary target of the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's attempt to push people out of Treasurys into riskier assets. But corporate IOUs that earn top grades from rating agencies have been on a tear, too -- returning 31 percent in two years.
This has been good for the economy. But investors are another story.
These bonds continue to attract money partly because many mutual funds that focus on bonds feel they must invest in them no matter what the price. No one can guess when bonds could tumble but if a fund sells them and they don't drop right away, it's sure to lose investors to rival funds that didn't sell and are still collecting interest and posting higher returns -- for now.
David Wright of Sierra Core Retirement Fund is just as critical of the almost willful ignorance of risk by investors. But he's buying. He says bears are ignoring the appeal of investment grade bonds as refuges of safety in the troubled times he sees ahead. Wright says investors are courting danger in myriad other assets such as stocks, which he thinks could fall as much as 35 percent over the next nine months.
"There'll be a shift from complacency to anxiety to fear," Wright says. "And they'll gradually move into these safe haven assets."
With plenty of cash on hand, well-off investors may begin loading on portfolio when market stabilizes. Market makers are already thin on stock positions and individual investors are taking profit on the recent rally but still keeping the core positions. Day traders are riding on the downtrend speculation created by market makers. Market may continue to decline as investors hesitate to buy despite attractive valuation. With large amount of capital flow seeking return, market may suddenly rebound when investors return to optimism.
Why safe corporate bonds aren't so smart anymore
Companies deemed good for the money are raising trillions selling bonds to investors who can't seem to get enough of them.
Some bonds are throwing off interest so puny that investors are already losing money to inflation. Others pay higher rates but won't return your money for more years than you're likely to live.
Stocks were the primary target of the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's attempt to push people out of Treasurys into riskier assets. But corporate IOUs that earn top grades from rating agencies have been on a tear, too -- returning 31 percent in two years.
This has been good for the economy. But investors are another story.
These bonds continue to attract money partly because many mutual funds that focus on bonds feel they must invest in them no matter what the price. No one can guess when bonds could tumble but if a fund sells them and they don't drop right away, it's sure to lose investors to rival funds that didn't sell and are still collecting interest and posting higher returns -- for now.
David Wright of Sierra Core Retirement Fund is just as critical of the almost willful ignorance of risk by investors. But he's buying. He says bears are ignoring the appeal of investment grade bonds as refuges of safety in the troubled times he sees ahead. Wright says investors are courting danger in myriad other assets such as stocks, which he thinks could fall as much as 35 percent over the next nine months.
"There'll be a shift from complacency to anxiety to fear," Wright says. "And they'll gradually move into these safe haven assets."
黑翅長腳鷸濕地公園築巢
「黑翅長腳鷸」體態修長，通體黑白分明，一雙紅腿很容易辨認；牠們常結群活動，喜沿海淺水及淡水沼澤地生活。而黑翅長腳鷸為春、秋過境遷徙鳥，是香港的「常客」，香港濕地公園及米埔自然保護區均是牠們的居住地。
專家指，黑翅長腳鷸屬候鳥，品種不屬罕有，早於○三年已在米埔首次錄得牠們在香港繁殖的紀錄，其他東南亞地區亦是牠們繁殖的選擇地。
專家指，黑翅長腳鷸屬候鳥，品種不屬罕有，早於○三年已在米埔首次錄得牠們在香港繁殖的紀錄，其他東南亞地區亦是牠們繁殖的選擇地。
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