Friday, September 16, 2011

Market Rebounds In The Absence of Speculative Selling

Equity stock market sets five straight days of gain in the absence of speculative selling. Market makers remain sitting on the sideline for the second week. Seeing that market makers are no longer speculating further decline, day traders and individual investors are gradually closing the bearish positions. It appears that market makers do not change from pessimistic to optimistic but rather waiting for another opportunity. Market participants are aware of possible sudden drop and remain cautious. There are trickle buying from investors who are sitting on pile of cash and expect a slow recovery of market.

Market may have tested the bottom as market makers pause on beating down the market. There are factors to frighten market participants and to manipulate down the market. But there are also tremendous cash on the sideline waiting for entry into the market. Therefore market makers have to access the risk to bet on market to decline further. The attempt to sell down the market with the Greek sovereign debt crisis is not successful to create herding behaviour. Selling from day traders, individual and institutional investors are very limited and does not create heavy selling. On the other hand, any dip will attract bargain buying from investors who are waiting for market bottom.

Market participants are not encouraged to buy yet. If market makers do not sell again in the coming weeks, it may signal the end of this selling wave from market makers. Market participants will set new direction starting from third quarter earnings release.

The speculative trading portfolio remains optimistic in long term market performance. Trading strategy will be based on withdrawal of market makers from selling down the market and a slow recovery due to trickle buying from bargain hunting investors. However there is still possibility that market makers may find opportunity to attack market again. Market participants confidence have not recovered yet and remain low. When market recovers the loss, market makers may create herding behaviour on profit taking by buyers who bought at the bottom. Market should continue to climb slowly as in this week. But market participants should be prepared for selling pressure from profit taking.



Gold Declines for a Second Day as Investors Sell to Cover Equity Losses
Some investors “will argue that gold will prove valuable and will hold its value even as stock prices plunge, and in the long run they may well be right.”

Obama would hike taxes to pay for his jobs bill
In a sharp challenge to the GOP, President Barack Obama proposed paying for his costly new jobs plan Monday with tax hikes that Republicans have already emphatically rejected. The reception to his new proposal was no more welcoming, setting the stage for a likely new fight with Congress.

"It would be fair to say this tax increase on job creators is the kind of proposal both parties have opposed in the past. We remain eager to work together on ways to support job growth, but this proposal doesn't appear to have been offered in that bipartisan spirit," Boehner spokesman Brendan Buck said.

Yet by daring Republicans anew to reject tax hikes on the rich Obama could gain a talking point as the 2012 presidential campaign moves forward, if not a legislative victory.

The jobs package would combine tax cuts for workers and employers by reducing the Social Security payroll tax, with spending elements including more money to hire teachers, rebuild schools and pay unemployment benefits. There are also tax credits to encourage businesses to hire veterans and the long-term unemployed.

Republicans have indicated they're receptive to supporting Obama's proposed payroll tax cut and finding a way to extend unemployment benefits, though many have rejected Obama's planned new spending. Obama's new proposal Monday to pay for it all by raising taxes without any proposals to cut spending is unlikely to win him any new GOP support for any element of his plan.


Census: US poverty rate swells to nearly 1 in 6
Reflecting the lingering impact of the recession, the U.S. poverty rate from 2007-2010 has now risen faster than any three-year period since the early 1980s, when a crippling energy crisis amid government cutbacks contributed to inflation, spiraling interest rates and unemployment.

Fired Yahoo CEO backs down, resigns from board
Carol Bartz has resigned from the Yahoo board of directors that she blasted for firing her as the company's CEO last week.

An investment hedge fund that owns a 5.2 percent stake in Yahoo is asking Chairman Roy Bostock and three other directors to resign too. The fund, called Third Point, contends the board needs to be held accountable for hiring Bartz in January 2009 and other decisions that have contributed to a steep drop in Yahoo's stock price in the last five years.


Is High Market Volatility the New Normal?
"Until you address the underlying drivers of the volatility, you can't really expect it to go away," says Alec Young, Equity Strategist at Standard & Poor's. "It's a very headline-driven market."

Simply put, volatility is the spawn of uncertainty, and uncertainty is kryptonite to the stock market.

From concerns about the US economy, the contagion effect from the European debt crisis, the pace and reliability of earnings growth, currency swings, commodity prices, the caustic political environment, and debt and deficits across the globe; the realm of uncertainty grows and changes every day.

Even if the benchmark indexes are flat or down for the year, volatility can be your ally, especially for active investors. "There's huge potential for a smart trader to exploit these swings," Young says, adding caution "that most traders don't make money."


What the Treasury Market Is Telling Investors
"I'm not exactly sure what it's telling us except one thing, and that is there is a considerable amount of uncertainty right now," says Jim Sarni, managing principal at Los Angeles-based money management firm Payden & Rygel. "Politically, economically, and fiscally, I think there are big challenges ahead of us, so for the time being, treasuries are likely to be a beneficiary of that."

Although volatility has picked up tremendously in the stock market, experts say stocks still look like a good bet for investors with a longer-term time horizon. "Over the long haul, stocks are a good place to be, but someone has to have at least a 12-month time horizon for that," Sarni says. If you're looking for a place to stash your money for just a few months, Sarni says the treasury market could be an option because of its traditional safe-haven status. But be wary of placing too much emphasis on safety, he adds.


4 Stocks to Buck the Overcrowded Large Cap Trend
Instead of chasing the same big, defensive, dividend paying, multi-national names that everyone seems to love, this chief investment officer of Palisades Capital Management is thinking smaller.

Rogue trader suspected in $2 billion loss at UBS
Swiss banking giant UBS said Thursday that a rogue trader has caused it an estimated loss of $2 billion, stunning a beleaguered banking industry that has proven vulnerable to unauthorized trades.

In other trading debacles, Nick Leeson, a British trader working in Singapore for Barings Bank, made unauthorized futures trades that lost more than $1 billion and led to the venerable bank's collapse in 1995. The infamous case prompted banks worldwide to tighten their internal checks.

Leeson was released from a Singapore jail in 1998 for good behavior after serving 3 1/2 years of a 6 1/2-year sentence. He claimed he did not make a cent from his disastrous trades but Barings' liquidators sought the return of 100 million pounds on any of his earnings relating to Barings.


Suspicious trades probed on Wall Street: regulator
A Wall Street regulator said industry complaints about market manipulation and trade reporting have spiked this year, raising questions about the adequacy of banks' internal controls over their traders

"We've been getting a lot of complaints about ... manipulation -- the possibility that somebody is manipulating equity to advantage their option position," he said.

At the FIA conference, DeMaio helped clarify what regulators consider to be "market making," a key question as the SEC comes up with new obligations for high-frequency traders, and as regulations are crafted for the Volcker rule.

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