"Far Too Many Bears for Stock Market to Crash?"

A search on the Internet reveals many articles with similar thinking on sideline investors on equity stock market. One of the article that deserves reading (especially on some comments) is
http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/08/far-too-many-bears-for-stocks-to-crash/.

Although there are a few points that is not totally agreed, the overall perception on current market scenario matches with previous discussions here. The article is published at the time (August 24th) when the market reached recent bottom. Following are some reasoning quoted from the article and comments that further dramatic decline in equity stock market would not happen.

"There is just so much talk of a crash that it has almost become anti-climactic. The thing is that with so many mutual fund redemptions having taken place and so many more 401-Ks being shifted out of equities, it does seem surprising that markets keep floating, range-bound."

"Incidentally, we hear daily about this or that person of note who has sold “all” their equity positions to avoid collateral damage, and we all know about all the people who are bailing on the markets for the shelter of bonds, T-bills, Gold or old-fashioned cash. But I am not convinced this is the exact course that should be taken."

"How anyone can think we’re in a moment which resembles a moment containing the prerequisite market sentiment and technical factors which precede a crash is beyond me. We have no blowoff top, we have no giddy wooohaa, we have no extreme bullishness, we have loads of cash on the sidelines, we have fear, THE WALL OF WORRY is as much there right now as it has ever been. I could go on…the pieces of the puzzle are just not there plus the rules of the system are not the same."

"Point is, one of the few times we saw a major collapse was in the early 30’s and that was under a gold standard which, makes it a completely different situation than what we have today."

"One should read the congressional record of 1929. The concern was that the People had too much money, and were not using that money the way the government wanted it used."

"All anyone is concerned about is the double dip, and catching the next bull. There are no perma-bears out there, except the radical few who have been made fun of."

Despite above arguments, the possibility of significant decline in equity stock market still exists. There are not many buyers to prevent a fast dip if bad news comes out and the market moves downwards. A "Black Swan Event" will drive the herd for sell-offs. And there is always a driving force causing fluctuations to correlate the equity stock market performance and real world economy fundamentals.