【明報專訊】年輕男女被指聖誕期間在公園疑似性交的片段熱爆網絡，前日有人把兩段名為《前傳》的短片上載到YouTube網站，只見該對男女在卡拉OK的走廊濕吻，更有網民稱已把男女「起底」，並將疑屬兩人的facebook截圖在討論區廣為流傳。
香港青年協會督導主任（網絡）鄧良順直言，事件在網上曝光後已不能回頭，對片中男女是最大懲罰，呼籲網民不要落井下石。他指出，被網民「起底」或成為談論對象，被「欺凌」者承受重大壓力，家長知道後要支持子女，亦望市民從中汲取教訓。如有需要，可致電「關心一線」2777 8899，尋求專業社工協助。
律師：頂證須片主出庭
律師黃國桐表示，若片中女子未成年，男方會被控「與未成年女童發生性行為」等罪名，另雙方都可能涉及「在公眾地方的猥褻行為」罪名。但有關罪行須片主出庭頂證，否則單靠網絡影片難以入罪。然而片主作證後，由於片段內容涉及不雅或淫褻，發布者亦會被控。
另外，警方昨午約5時半在大埔頌雅路拘捕一名14歲男童，懷疑他與未成年女童發生性行為，案件現交由大埔警區刑事調查隊第二隊跟進。
Friday, December 30, 2011
Market Fell On Last Trading Day; Moderate Gain For The Year
Broad market drops on the last trading day of this year. Trading volume is thin as major market participants are not present during the holiday period. Despite decreased trading activities, market still oscillates on buying and selling from traders and speculators. However, it seems that market moves within the range boundary where traders learn to buy at the low and sell at the high.
Global equity stock market suffers loss for the year with the exception of US and a few Asian countries. European stock markets tumble on the sovereign debt crisis which spreads globally to affect the stock markets. There is sell-off in the emerging market stocks as investors are exiting from risky assets. Gold surges to record high but retreats recently. US equity stock market is better than the rest of the world.
Investors remain cautious on equity stock market. On the other hand, overall personal wealth is growing on the global scale. But the distribution is largely biased resulting in concentration of wealth and widening of the gap between rich and poor. The consequence is social instability and the average people cannot benefit from the growth in economy although the number of billionaire sets record high.
Household wealth is growing steadily. But the capital does not go into the financial system to facilitate the operation of small businesses as banks are reluctant to lend to business. Large corporation bonds can attract investors for its relative safety.
Hot capital in the financial market is causing the turbulence in asset prices including equity stocks, commodities, real estate, etc. Investors are finding investment opportunities other than holding cash with mere return. As long as there is tremendous cash on the sideline, equity stock market remains highly speculative until confidence returns with strong evidence of growing economy.
Trade with your brain, not your emotions
Making the right trade isn't always fun. Sometimes it feels viscerally wrong.
Both Sun Tzu and Mohammad said that "war is deception." Well, financial markets are at war with your capital and your head. They bob and weave like a prizefighter, trying to lure and confuse us before delivering a knockout punch. Stocks play head games, sapping our conviction to buy or sell at precisely the moment when it makes sense to do so.
A recent case in point: precious metals. Silver collapsed back in May, and I told some trading friends that I thought it was going back to $30 before it returned to the April highs of $47-$48. So what did I do? I sat on the sidelines for most of the spring and summer, then started to doubt my own chart work and eventually tried to get long in early September.
That was obviously a mistake, because silver would soon crash once again, and this time it found support at what price? That same $30 I had coolly and rationally identified several months earlier. (Which, I should add, I liked because it was a peak from last December and January.)
The lesson: We should all try to determine the areas where we're good and stick with them.
Investor Uncertainty At 6-Year High: Survey
As investors brace for more volatility, their uncertainty about the direction of the stock market is at the highest level in six years.
The latest poll by American Association of Individual Investors shows that 38 percent of respondents expect stock prices to remain flat in the next six months. That's the highest level since April 2005.
European sovereign debt problems, domestic politics and lackluster economic growth are all weighing on the sentiment, according to the survey.
"The sentiment numbers reflect the sense that a short-term solution to the problems here and in Europe do not exist," says Charles Rotblut, vice president at AAII. "There is also a sense of frustration about the inability to get good returns right now".
On a bright side, there is no significant level of fear among investors, and many are looking for modest gains in 2012, says Rotblut.
While volatility is widely expected to continue, respondents predicting an up year for S&P 500 outnumbered those expecting a down year by a margin of three to one.
Expectations were modest, however, with more of than half of those predicting gains saying the S&P 500 will rise by 10 percent or less.
According to the survey, a notable number of AAII members are anticipating another pullback in stock prices in 2012.
Hold Your Nose & Buy Bank Stocks: Bove
After crashing 50% in 2008, and then enduring another brutal 30% decline in 2011, investors could be excused for wanting to seek their fortunes somewhere other than in the KBW Bank Index. But Dick Bove, financial sector analyst at Rochdale Sector, isn't running away from his picks, he's doubling down on them, and predicting (again) that the market's coldest industry is on the cusp of greatness.
Bove is expecting to see continued improvement in trends, including the domestic economy and banking industry earnings that are at a 4 1/2 year high, have risen for 9 consecutive quarters, and "aren't as dirty (or cluttered with charges) as you think."
But for all their profitability and potential market share gains, investors are still not seeing it - or at least buying into it. Bove himself offered up an explanation for his erroneous "buy" calls in the sector this year: "I failed to understand that the fears in the market concerning banking were so great that the fundamental improvements in the economy, the industry, and companies like Bank of America and Citigroup would simply be ignored."
The final piece of his domestic bank thesis is based on evidence of loan and deposit growth, saying "inflow of deposits have been enormous because money is coming out of everything." And with deposit rates next to nothing, few would argue that for all their other issues, banks are definitely sitting on lots of cash.
In a first, gas and other fuels are top US export
For the first time, the top export of the United States, the world's biggest gas guzzler, is — wait for it — fuel.
Just how big of a shift is this? A decade ago, fuel wasn't even among the top 25 exports. And for the last five years, America's top export was aircraft.
The value of U.S. fuel exports has grown steadily over the past decade, coinciding with rising oil prices and increased demand around the globe.
Developing countries in Latin America and Asia have been burning more gasoline and diesel as their people buy more cars and build more roads and factories. Europe also has been buying more U.S. fuel to make up for its lack of refineries.
And there's a simple reason why America's refiners have been eager to export to these markets: gasoline demand in the U.S. has been falling every year since 2007. It dropped by another 2.5 percent in 2011. With the economy struggling, motorists cut back. Also, cars and trucks have become more fuel-efficient and the government mandates the use of more corn-based ethanol fuel.
Global equity stock market suffers loss for the year with the exception of US and a few Asian countries. European stock markets tumble on the sovereign debt crisis which spreads globally to affect the stock markets. There is sell-off in the emerging market stocks as investors are exiting from risky assets. Gold surges to record high but retreats recently. US equity stock market is better than the rest of the world.
Investors remain cautious on equity stock market. On the other hand, overall personal wealth is growing on the global scale. But the distribution is largely biased resulting in concentration of wealth and widening of the gap between rich and poor. The consequence is social instability and the average people cannot benefit from the growth in economy although the number of billionaire sets record high.
Household wealth is growing steadily. But the capital does not go into the financial system to facilitate the operation of small businesses as banks are reluctant to lend to business. Large corporation bonds can attract investors for its relative safety.
Hot capital in the financial market is causing the turbulence in asset prices including equity stocks, commodities, real estate, etc. Investors are finding investment opportunities other than holding cash with mere return. As long as there is tremendous cash on the sideline, equity stock market remains highly speculative until confidence returns with strong evidence of growing economy.
Trade with your brain, not your emotions
Making the right trade isn't always fun. Sometimes it feels viscerally wrong.
Both Sun Tzu and Mohammad said that "war is deception." Well, financial markets are at war with your capital and your head. They bob and weave like a prizefighter, trying to lure and confuse us before delivering a knockout punch. Stocks play head games, sapping our conviction to buy or sell at precisely the moment when it makes sense to do so.
A recent case in point: precious metals. Silver collapsed back in May, and I told some trading friends that I thought it was going back to $30 before it returned to the April highs of $47-$48. So what did I do? I sat on the sidelines for most of the spring and summer, then started to doubt my own chart work and eventually tried to get long in early September.
That was obviously a mistake, because silver would soon crash once again, and this time it found support at what price? That same $30 I had coolly and rationally identified several months earlier. (Which, I should add, I liked because it was a peak from last December and January.)
The lesson: We should all try to determine the areas where we're good and stick with them.
Investor Uncertainty At 6-Year High: Survey
As investors brace for more volatility, their uncertainty about the direction of the stock market is at the highest level in six years.
The latest poll by American Association of Individual Investors shows that 38 percent of respondents expect stock prices to remain flat in the next six months. That's the highest level since April 2005.
European sovereign debt problems, domestic politics and lackluster economic growth are all weighing on the sentiment, according to the survey.
"The sentiment numbers reflect the sense that a short-term solution to the problems here and in Europe do not exist," says Charles Rotblut, vice president at AAII. "There is also a sense of frustration about the inability to get good returns right now".
On a bright side, there is no significant level of fear among investors, and many are looking for modest gains in 2012, says Rotblut.
While volatility is widely expected to continue, respondents predicting an up year for S&P 500 outnumbered those expecting a down year by a margin of three to one.
Expectations were modest, however, with more of than half of those predicting gains saying the S&P 500 will rise by 10 percent or less.
According to the survey, a notable number of AAII members are anticipating another pullback in stock prices in 2012.
Hold Your Nose & Buy Bank Stocks: Bove
After crashing 50% in 2008, and then enduring another brutal 30% decline in 2011, investors could be excused for wanting to seek their fortunes somewhere other than in the KBW Bank Index. But Dick Bove, financial sector analyst at Rochdale Sector, isn't running away from his picks, he's doubling down on them, and predicting (again) that the market's coldest industry is on the cusp of greatness.
Bove is expecting to see continued improvement in trends, including the domestic economy and banking industry earnings that are at a 4 1/2 year high, have risen for 9 consecutive quarters, and "aren't as dirty (or cluttered with charges) as you think."
But for all their profitability and potential market share gains, investors are still not seeing it - or at least buying into it. Bove himself offered up an explanation for his erroneous "buy" calls in the sector this year: "I failed to understand that the fears in the market concerning banking were so great that the fundamental improvements in the economy, the industry, and companies like Bank of America and Citigroup would simply be ignored."
The final piece of his domestic bank thesis is based on evidence of loan and deposit growth, saying "inflow of deposits have been enormous because money is coming out of everything." And with deposit rates next to nothing, few would argue that for all their other issues, banks are definitely sitting on lots of cash.
In a first, gas and other fuels are top US export
For the first time, the top export of the United States, the world's biggest gas guzzler, is — wait for it — fuel.
Just how big of a shift is this? A decade ago, fuel wasn't even among the top 25 exports. And for the last five years, America's top export was aircraft.
The value of U.S. fuel exports has grown steadily over the past decade, coinciding with rising oil prices and increased demand around the globe.
Developing countries in Latin America and Asia have been burning more gasoline and diesel as their people buy more cars and build more roads and factories. Europe also has been buying more U.S. fuel to make up for its lack of refineries.
And there's a simple reason why America's refiners have been eager to export to these markets: gasoline demand in the U.S. has been falling every year since 2007. It dropped by another 2.5 percent in 2011. With the economy struggling, motorists cut back. Also, cars and trucks have become more fuel-efficient and the government mandates the use of more corn-based ethanol fuel.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
最神秘「貓」撒哈拉鬼魅
英國《每日郵報》
非洲「撒哈拉獵豹」（ Saharan cheetah ）神出鬼沒，是全球最神秘貓科動物之一，外界對牠了解甚少。保育學家鍥而不捨十年後，終在尼日爾泰爾米特沙漠，揭開牠的廬山真面目。
撒哈拉保育基金發言人紐比表示，工作人員去年7至8月期間，利用夜視鏡頭拍下晝伏夜出的撒哈拉獵豹，發現牠毛色光亮，有條長尾巴，背部長有斑點。工作人員十年來只見過這種獵豹三次，惟獨今次拍攝得到照片，估計區內只有不足10隻存活。
非洲「撒哈拉獵豹」（ Saharan cheetah ）神出鬼沒，是全球最神秘貓科動物之一，外界對牠了解甚少。保育學家鍥而不捨十年後，終在尼日爾泰爾米特沙漠，揭開牠的廬山真面目。
撒哈拉保育基金發言人紐比表示，工作人員去年7至8月期間，利用夜視鏡頭拍下晝伏夜出的撒哈拉獵豹，發現牠毛色光亮，有條長尾巴，背部長有斑點。工作人員十年來只見過這種獵豹三次，惟獨今次拍攝得到照片，估計區內只有不足10隻存活。
Saturday, December 24, 2011
工展會部分貨品貴過超市
【星島日報】開幕兩周的工展會，在昨日聖誕前夕，錄得超過十五萬人次進場，開幕至今累計逾一百四十萬人次入場，較去年同期增一成六。不過有入場市民認為，會場內醬油等貨品較一般超市略貴，又有「捆綁式」銷售，影響消費意欲。
受惠今年工展會內地旅客增多，不少參展商的生意額皆「報捷」。東方紅助理批發經理王偉傑表示，開幕迄今生意額較往年同期增兩至三成，如早前有內地客一擲接近五萬元購入蟲草燕窩，出手闊綽。他預計，昨平安夜銷情可較平日升一成；德國寶（香港）負責人張先生亦指，今年工展會增設從羅湖口岸巴士接載內地客進場消費，是人流大增的主因。
有別過去兩年，東方紅今年沒在昨開幕的冬日美食嘉年華擺檔。王偉傑解釋，該展覽僅四天檔期，較難找到有銷售經驗的臨時工，故今年主攻工展會生意。
工展會昨引來十五萬人次入場，較去年同日多出約四萬三千人次，開幕迄今累積入場人數已逾一百四十萬人，比去年同期多出二十萬人次。
入場人數再創新高，但有市民反映，場內有貨品較一般超市昂貴，令消費意欲大減。彭氏一家四口與友人劉女士，昨早進場已花千多元買下一箱龜苓膏、臘腸和即食麵等食品。但每年至少都去兩次工展會的劉女士發現，今年場內有攤檔售賣醬油套裝送手推車，標價一百二十元，與往年相比明顯加價，認為市面醬油套裝一般只售九十元而沒有光顧。她又說，去年連同家居電器，在工展會花費多達八千元，相比今年的確「節省」不少。有入場長者亦指，今年工展會如食油等貨品價格略貴，又不滿有攤位「捆綁式」銷售，食油連泰國米一併購買才有優惠。
同珍醬油罐頭負責人表示，今年各項貨品價錢略升，但人流不跌反升，套裝優惠大賣，開展兩周生意額有望比往年同期大增四至五成；淘大員工黃先生亦指，今年醬油等貨品市價有所調整，故在工展會以套裝優惠回饋顧客，銷情應該至少比往年好一成。
正值聖誕，工展會昨日起至本月底推出個人護理用品、服飾精品及家居用品的特價優惠，同時舉辦兒童繪畫比賽等活動讓入場家長帶同子女參與。
將軍澳野狗 咬死野豬
記者昨日到發現野豬屍的將軍澳馬油塘村採訪，見不少野狗出沒。（蔡方山攝）
一頭「野豬少女」倒臥山坡雜物堆，身上滿佈傷痕似被野狗噬咬或抓傷，證實已死。（蔡方山攝）
資料圖片
【明報專訊】將軍澳昨日上演野豬大戰流浪狗的地盤爭霸戰。一頭未成年野豬女疑誤闖野狗盤據範圍，寡不敵眾被狗群噬咬至遍體鱗傷，浴血逃至馬油塘村不支倒地身亡，由村民發現報警。
野豬未成年 僅1米長
大埔野豬狩獵隊隊長楊佳權表示，山林間野狗與野豬發生打鬥並非罕見，因狗本身有獵性，當看見野豬便會攻擊。但楊佳權憑戰果推斷，相信戰敗的野豬屬雌性，若是長出獠牙的成年公豬，恐怕流浪狗群會有死傷，戰果可能完全改寫。
戰敗的「野豬少女」尚未成年，僅約1米長，約重70公斤，伏屍在馬油塘村305號村屋對開山坡的雜物堆，身上傷痕纍纍且血跡斑斑，死狀恐怖。有村民表示，村內經常有人餵飼野狗，久而久之，山頭聚集了約20頭流浪狗，不排除野豬遭野狗襲擊斃命。
村民估計，野豬女是在清晨時分於附近山頭四處覓食，疑不慎誤闖野狗群佔據的山林而遭包圍襲擊，被咬傷多處後浴血突圍逃走，跑至上址匿藏喘息，疑因傷勢過重送命。
至早上近7時，一名姓黃村民途經上址，發現野豬已全無反應，報警求助。警員趕至時，證實野豬已死亡，遂聯絡食環署人員到場處理豬屍。
本報記者昨日到場採訪時，亦見到有流浪狗在山頭出沒，並且露出兇悍神色，似在提防入侵其地盤者。
Friday, December 23, 2011
英國堅持福克蘭島主權不容談判
【BBC中文網】英國首相卡梅倫表示，英國擁有不會違背島民的意願交出福克蘭群島的主權。
卡梅倫在聖誕節致詞中對福克蘭島居民說，南美洲港口最近禁止懸掛福克蘭島旗幟的船隻進港是不公正的，而且沒有建設性。
本周早些時候i，南美洲貿易集團南美洲共同市場就上述措施達成協議。南美洲共同市場 包括阿根廷，巴西，巴拉圭和烏拉圭。
福克蘭島被西班牙語國家稱為馬爾維納斯群島，是位於南大西洋上的群島。阿根廷聲稱對該島擁有主權，但是群島被英國佔領。
英國自19世紀30年代開始就佔領福克蘭群島，英國表示福克蘭群的未來不容談判。1982年英國同阿根廷為爭奪福克蘭群島發生了短暫但血腥的戰爭。
最近福克蘭島問題再次成為兩國關係中的緊張問題。去年阿根廷指責英國允許在福克蘭島附近海域開採石油違反了國際裁決。福克蘭島位於南大西洋礦藏豐富的海域。
11月阿根廷還指責英國的「挑釁行為」，因為英國宣佈威廉王子明年將在駐扎在福克蘭群島的皇家空軍任職。
Stock Dumping Ceases; Trickle Of Buying Buoys Market
Market dropped on the first day of week but then continuously climbed up in the following days. Market began the week with selling pressure from hedge funds and day traders from last week. But surprising economic data on Tuesday changed market direction. Market has been jumping up and down in the past months. But it appears that the trough in October would be recent market bottom. Sellers cannot drag market down below that level where a lot of investors and traders have trimmed the portfolio on the fear of market collapse. Those shares were acquired by long term investors who have the ability to hold the investment for long term appreciation. Some smart traders also acquired shares at the bottom. But part of the profit is realized as market approaches the upper boundary of trading range. Day traders and speculators dominate the trading activities as many other market participants stop trading for the year. Hedge funds are not successful to create panic selling as done previously by market manipulators.
Many market participants are sitting on cash to wait for opportunity to replenish the portfolio but only to see that market gets strong support despite widespread market pessimism which indicates that buyers are expecting to buy at a much lower market value. On the other hand, holders of equity stock are already rich in cash and are reluctant to exchange stock for cash despite possibility of further depreciation.
Dividend stocks, especially blue chips, are the most popular among investors because corporate earnings are growing steadily. As a result, corporate bonds are also in high demand from investors who are seeking safety as well as reasonable return. As mentioned in previous post, there is observation that retail investors are slowly coming back to the equity stock market. Remember that last October individual investors started buying stocks and drove the market until this year's peak in May when market manipulators began to sell down the market. The trading volume started to decrease as capital flew out of equity stock market. Currently trading volume is almost lowest of the year amid holiday season.
Despite increasing interest from retail investors in equity stock market, they are very cautious in buying and only looking for short term profit. Investors are mostly thin on stock holding and anxious on the mere return of cash or equivalent. Although the macro economy is not likely under the threat of a "Double Dip", stock market can still go into a severe dip due to market manipulation. This is the worry of many market participants as well as sideline cash.
As the overall economy recovers from the damage of financial crisis, asset market including equity stocks and real estate will eventually appreciate in value to reflect the growth in overall wealth from economic activities.
The uncertainty of short term market direction is whether to go into collapse first so that market participants can buy at fire sale discount as in the midst of financial crisis, or to climb a wall of worry when investors are sitting on the sideline with cash until the macro economy confirms a full recovery and subsequent growth.
Making a List, and Taking It to the Pawnshop
Christmas this year has come to the neighborhood pawnshop — and business is booming like never before.
Sue Gallagher, 54, is one shopper who now works through her Christmas list at a pawnshop before heading to Wal-Mart or Target.
The gloomy economy is the most immediate explanation, but industry experts also point to the success of television shows like “Pawn Stars,” which have attracted a more mainstream audience to the stores.
Lacker sees no need for Fed to ease
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to need to ease monetary policy further given the country's steady if moderate pace of economic growth, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Monday.
Lacker, an inflation hawk who will rotate into a voting seat in the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee next year, said he expects the economy to expand between 2 percent and 2.5 percent next year.
Some Fed officials believe another round of monetary stimulus could help bring down the nation's 8.6 percent jobless rate further. But Lacker stuck to the view that the bulk of problems holding back the job market are beyond the reach of monetary policy.
Analysis: Money managers forge ahead despite volatility
It is a good time to be a U.S. stock investor for the long term - if you can ignore the noise erupting every few hours.
That is the advice from some money managers, who are taking the opposite tack of many who want to avoid the turbulence. Instead, they are confronting the volatility head on, adding to stock allocations rather than standing pat.
Much of their increased optimism stems from a belief the U.S. economy is likely to avoid another recession, even as a European downturn seems more likely.
But there remain many reasons to be wary. Even optimistic money managers acknowledge that Europe's debt troubles are far from over and the fallout could still extend to the United States, especially the U.S. financial system.
Cautious retail investors overall still prefer bonds and cash to stocks. Assets under management at all equity funds dropped by $186 billion for the year through December 12, according to Thomson Reuters' Lipper. For the same period, assets under management at all taxable bond funds rose by $69.8 billion.
The well-worn arguments about attractive valuation have not won the day in 2011. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 appears headed for another losing year, despite valuations that have not been this low in a decade.
The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the company's profit, is low by historic standards. The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of 11.3 is at its lowest in more than a decade, S&P data shows.
One approach to investing in stocks today is to aim for global diversification, according to Todd Petzel, chief investment officer at Offit Capital Advisors.
Is the Falling VIX a Bullish Indicator? Yes Says Jon Najarian
Despite tumbling as much as 5% earlier today, the CBOE Volatility Index could be the most bullish indicator on the Street. Sometimes referred to as "the fear indicator," the VIX has been in a downward trend through most of December, dropping nearly 10% in the last two last two sessions, and currently inching below it's 200-day moving average of roughly 25.75.
Big market swings such as we've seen in December are "supposed" to lead to a higher VIX. The curious combination of big moves and shrinking VIX levels has some questioning whether or not it has any predictive value at all.
"In the VIX there's a lot of money that's saying the markets will not be moving as much as they were in September, October, and November," he explains. "It doesn't necessarily mean we have to rally, it just means the moves will be less exaggerated."
For Wall St.'s Big Players, the Holiday Party Is Still Over
Three years after the financial crisis, the Grinch still hovers over Wall Street.
But, mindful of mass layoffs, flagging profits and sustained anger on Main Street, the nation's largest banks have canceled firm-sponsored celebrations or moved them in-house to avoid the costs and the criticism.
For the fourth year in a row, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have shelved their official holiday parties. The investment banking divisions of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America have also decided against them. But groups of employees at all five firms were permitted to hold - and pay for - their own festivities.
With large American firms cutting back on holiday parties, private equity firms, hedge funds and others that operate farther from the public eye are taking their place.
At banks without official parties, some employees are making do with less.
Other firms have emphasized charitable giving programs intended to draw attention to their good works.
Those kinds of events can provide the morale boost of a holiday party without the reputational risks, experts say.
"At this point, the crazy, expensive caviar nights don't make sense, but maybe something more subdued would be more appropriate," said Alison Brod, who runs a New York-based public relations firm. "It's pretty sad to do nothing."
History Hints at a 2012 Rally in Financials: Bespoke’s Hickey
If past is prologue, and it generally is in markets as in life, the Financial sector could be poised for a decent rally in the next 12 months. At least that's the assertion of Paul Hickey, the co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.
Hickey's theory doesn't rely on a sweeping solution to the European debt crisis or other fundamental imponderables. He's focusing on the similarities between the trading in bank stocks today and the price moves in Technology stocks after the tech bubble implosion a decade ago.
For good measure, Hickey reminds us that banks are working off overcapacity (witness the number of lay-offs), a lack of demand for their services, and an almost universal skepticism regarding the industry's ability to recover. All concerns surrounding financial stocks today
The conclusion of the story in terms of parallels between the Tech sector of yesteryear and the Financial sector of today is this: The market did in fact end up rallying without the techs for two-years prior to a nice +10% rally mid-decade. In terms of time frame and sentiment, Hickey says the financial sector is almost exactly where the techs were prior to that rally.
It may not be an unqualified "bottom" call, but Hickey is looking for that same 10% out of the financials next year. It may not seem like much but it's certainly better than the grinding losses of 2011.
Banks Not Lending? Corporate Borrowing Soars in 2011
Consumers may be cutting debt and banks may be tightening up their balance sheets, but borrowing by U.S. corporations is in full swing.
Corporations use syndicated loans for longer-term financing. The loans usually are provided by a group of deep-pocketed lenders who can distribute liability among them and thus decrease their risk. Big Wall Street investment banks are usually the source of such loans.
So far in 2011, syndicated loan volume has increased a whopping 56 percent compared to 2010, according to Dealogic. The total of $1.76 trillion is the highest single-year sum since the pre-financial crisis days of 2007.
Globally, syndicated loan volume grew 27 percent to $3.74 trillion - again, the highest since 2007, Dealogic said.
The spike in corporate borrowing, though, contrasts with the debt-averse private sector.
Consumer credit grew at a 3.7 percent pace in October but is up just about 2 percent for the year, with total consumer debt outstanding at $2.46 trillion, according to the latest seasonally adjusted Federal Reserve data.
Many market participants are sitting on cash to wait for opportunity to replenish the portfolio but only to see that market gets strong support despite widespread market pessimism which indicates that buyers are expecting to buy at a much lower market value. On the other hand, holders of equity stock are already rich in cash and are reluctant to exchange stock for cash despite possibility of further depreciation.
Dividend stocks, especially blue chips, are the most popular among investors because corporate earnings are growing steadily. As a result, corporate bonds are also in high demand from investors who are seeking safety as well as reasonable return. As mentioned in previous post, there is observation that retail investors are slowly coming back to the equity stock market. Remember that last October individual investors started buying stocks and drove the market until this year's peak in May when market manipulators began to sell down the market. The trading volume started to decrease as capital flew out of equity stock market. Currently trading volume is almost lowest of the year amid holiday season.
Despite increasing interest from retail investors in equity stock market, they are very cautious in buying and only looking for short term profit. Investors are mostly thin on stock holding and anxious on the mere return of cash or equivalent. Although the macro economy is not likely under the threat of a "Double Dip", stock market can still go into a severe dip due to market manipulation. This is the worry of many market participants as well as sideline cash.
As the overall economy recovers from the damage of financial crisis, asset market including equity stocks and real estate will eventually appreciate in value to reflect the growth in overall wealth from economic activities.
The uncertainty of short term market direction is whether to go into collapse first so that market participants can buy at fire sale discount as in the midst of financial crisis, or to climb a wall of worry when investors are sitting on the sideline with cash until the macro economy confirms a full recovery and subsequent growth.
Making a List, and Taking It to the Pawnshop
Christmas this year has come to the neighborhood pawnshop — and business is booming like never before.
Sue Gallagher, 54, is one shopper who now works through her Christmas list at a pawnshop before heading to Wal-Mart or Target.
The gloomy economy is the most immediate explanation, but industry experts also point to the success of television shows like “Pawn Stars,” which have attracted a more mainstream audience to the stores.
Lacker sees no need for Fed to ease
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to need to ease monetary policy further given the country's steady if moderate pace of economic growth, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Monday.
Lacker, an inflation hawk who will rotate into a voting seat in the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee next year, said he expects the economy to expand between 2 percent and 2.5 percent next year.
Some Fed officials believe another round of monetary stimulus could help bring down the nation's 8.6 percent jobless rate further. But Lacker stuck to the view that the bulk of problems holding back the job market are beyond the reach of monetary policy.
Analysis: Money managers forge ahead despite volatility
It is a good time to be a U.S. stock investor for the long term - if you can ignore the noise erupting every few hours.
That is the advice from some money managers, who are taking the opposite tack of many who want to avoid the turbulence. Instead, they are confronting the volatility head on, adding to stock allocations rather than standing pat.
Much of their increased optimism stems from a belief the U.S. economy is likely to avoid another recession, even as a European downturn seems more likely.
But there remain many reasons to be wary. Even optimistic money managers acknowledge that Europe's debt troubles are far from over and the fallout could still extend to the United States, especially the U.S. financial system.
Cautious retail investors overall still prefer bonds and cash to stocks. Assets under management at all equity funds dropped by $186 billion for the year through December 12, according to Thomson Reuters' Lipper. For the same period, assets under management at all taxable bond funds rose by $69.8 billion.
The well-worn arguments about attractive valuation have not won the day in 2011. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 appears headed for another losing year, despite valuations that have not been this low in a decade.
The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the company's profit, is low by historic standards. The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of 11.3 is at its lowest in more than a decade, S&P data shows.
One approach to investing in stocks today is to aim for global diversification, according to Todd Petzel, chief investment officer at Offit Capital Advisors.
Is the Falling VIX a Bullish Indicator? Yes Says Jon Najarian
Despite tumbling as much as 5% earlier today, the CBOE Volatility Index could be the most bullish indicator on the Street. Sometimes referred to as "the fear indicator," the VIX has been in a downward trend through most of December, dropping nearly 10% in the last two last two sessions, and currently inching below it's 200-day moving average of roughly 25.75.
Big market swings such as we've seen in December are "supposed" to lead to a higher VIX. The curious combination of big moves and shrinking VIX levels has some questioning whether or not it has any predictive value at all.
"In the VIX there's a lot of money that's saying the markets will not be moving as much as they were in September, October, and November," he explains. "It doesn't necessarily mean we have to rally, it just means the moves will be less exaggerated."
For Wall St.'s Big Players, the Holiday Party Is Still Over
Three years after the financial crisis, the Grinch still hovers over Wall Street.
But, mindful of mass layoffs, flagging profits and sustained anger on Main Street, the nation's largest banks have canceled firm-sponsored celebrations or moved them in-house to avoid the costs and the criticism.
For the fourth year in a row, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have shelved their official holiday parties. The investment banking divisions of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America have also decided against them. But groups of employees at all five firms were permitted to hold - and pay for - their own festivities.
With large American firms cutting back on holiday parties, private equity firms, hedge funds and others that operate farther from the public eye are taking their place.
At banks without official parties, some employees are making do with less.
Other firms have emphasized charitable giving programs intended to draw attention to their good works.
Those kinds of events can provide the morale boost of a holiday party without the reputational risks, experts say.
"At this point, the crazy, expensive caviar nights don't make sense, but maybe something more subdued would be more appropriate," said Alison Brod, who runs a New York-based public relations firm. "It's pretty sad to do nothing."
History Hints at a 2012 Rally in Financials: Bespoke’s Hickey
If past is prologue, and it generally is in markets as in life, the Financial sector could be poised for a decent rally in the next 12 months. At least that's the assertion of Paul Hickey, the co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.
Hickey's theory doesn't rely on a sweeping solution to the European debt crisis or other fundamental imponderables. He's focusing on the similarities between the trading in bank stocks today and the price moves in Technology stocks after the tech bubble implosion a decade ago.
For good measure, Hickey reminds us that banks are working off overcapacity (witness the number of lay-offs), a lack of demand for their services, and an almost universal skepticism regarding the industry's ability to recover. All concerns surrounding financial stocks today
The conclusion of the story in terms of parallels between the Tech sector of yesteryear and the Financial sector of today is this: The market did in fact end up rallying without the techs for two-years prior to a nice +10% rally mid-decade. In terms of time frame and sentiment, Hickey says the financial sector is almost exactly where the techs were prior to that rally.
It may not be an unqualified "bottom" call, but Hickey is looking for that same 10% out of the financials next year. It may not seem like much but it's certainly better than the grinding losses of 2011.
Banks Not Lending? Corporate Borrowing Soars in 2011
Consumers may be cutting debt and banks may be tightening up their balance sheets, but borrowing by U.S. corporations is in full swing.
Corporations use syndicated loans for longer-term financing. The loans usually are provided by a group of deep-pocketed lenders who can distribute liability among them and thus decrease their risk. Big Wall Street investment banks are usually the source of such loans.
So far in 2011, syndicated loan volume has increased a whopping 56 percent compared to 2010, according to Dealogic. The total of $1.76 trillion is the highest single-year sum since the pre-financial crisis days of 2007.
Globally, syndicated loan volume grew 27 percent to $3.74 trillion - again, the highest since 2007, Dealogic said.
The spike in corporate borrowing, though, contrasts with the debt-averse private sector.
Consumer credit grew at a 3.7 percent pace in October but is up just about 2 percent for the year, with total consumer debt outstanding at $2.46 trillion, according to the latest seasonally adjusted Federal Reserve data.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Retail Investors Returning To Equity Stock Market
Equity stock market gives back some gain for the prior weeks. Although market manipulators have accomplished work for the year, hedge funds continue to lead the selling at the end of the year. With news of bank downgrade, hedge fund selling is weak but followed by day traders. Market becomes less sensitive to the downgrade news and does not trigger panic sell-offs. But market participants use the news to drag down broad market index. Hedge fund overall performance is not satisfactory for the year and is attempting to use the final trading days to narrow the loss. It appears that retail investors are exhibiting more interest in equity stock market amid flooding of cash in the portfolio.
Although market participants are selectively buying stocks on the dip, the holding time is short on fear of market sell-off as market manipulators are using the downgrade news and sovereign debt crisis to move market.
Market will continue to swing on money flow. But it should be range bounded as it will attract buyers at recent bottom level and profit taking will constrain the rise of market. Currently, market support is being tested as market manipulators and hedge funds are attempting to move the market down. However, panic selling from market participants appears to fade away as market approaches recent bottom. And a lot of individual investors are still waiting for the opportunity to replenish the stocks in the portfolio. On the other hand, there is selling pressure from day traders taking profit on rebound.
There is a lot of capital flowing around the globe as well as speculation on financial assets. Household investors are seeing growth in personal wealth while institutional funds are under pressure from customers for return on investment.
Speculators can exploit market turbulence to make profit. Risk mitigation is an important factor to ride on market trend. Despite year end approaching, trading activities drop only slightly on coming holiday.
Last October, buying from individual investors drove market higher until early this year when market manipulators began to sell on market peak. Currently, after the sell-offs from year peak, individual investors are cautiously returning to the equity stock market with speculative buying and selling. There are still a lot of uncertainties that is reflected on the weak confidence of market participants.
The $200 Trillion World: Who Owns All the Wealth?
The wealth of the world -- from all the global stock markets, insurance funds, and families -- comes out to about $200 trillion, according to the McKinsey Global Institute's new report on investors in developing nations.
Households, mostly. U.S. and Western European households own about one-quarter of the world's financial assets, according the rather remarkable chart produced by the authors, which breaks down wealth by type and geography.
Until this decade, the preferences of investors in developed nations have shaped the evolution of global capital markets. Today these investors control 79 percent of the world's nearly $200 trillion in financial assets.
Broadly speaking, investors in developed economies hold highly diversified portfolios, with significant portions in equities. The United States stands out for consistently high equity allocations: currently US households have 42 percent of their non-retirement financial assets in publicly listed shares. Households in Hong Kong have similar shares of their wealth in equities. On average, Western European households placed 29 percent of their financial assets in equities in 2010, with 29 percent in the United Kingdom (down from 45 percent in 2000), 25 percent in France, and 19 percent in Germany.
Among developed nations, Japan stands out for its very low investment in equities. Despite a long tradition of equity investing by individual investors for most of the 20th century, Japanese households now hold less than 10 percent of their assets in equities, down from 30 percent before the 1989-90 crash. Because of low or negative returns over the past two decades, Japanese allocations have never exceeded 18 percent in this period.
A New Way to Access the Pre-IPO Market
This week could mark the busiest for the IPO market since November 2007. As many as 11 companies are expected to go public, including online gaming king Zynga.
This pre-IPO fever has been fueled, in part, by privately held social media phenomenons like Facebook and Twitter. Note Facebook's recently implied $100 billion valuation and it's easy to see why investors are salivating to get a hold of shares. But for the average investor, accumulating shares is virtually impossible until after the IPO.
If all of this seems a little too hot and trendy for your hard earned investment dollars, yet you acknowledge that value exists in being early to the party of discovery for young companies, then the just-listed Keating Pre-IPO Fund (KIPO) may be worth a peak.
While names like Facebook, Zynga, Twitter, and FourSquare are better known in the universe of pre-IPO companies, Keating says they don't offer the value, or upside potential, that is needed to join the 13 other pre-listed companies that have been added to the fund over the past two years. In addition to doing at least $10 million a year in sales as well as plans to go public within 18 months, perhaps the most exclusive barrier to his portfolio is the last, a valuation that will offer "a 2x return", a.k.a. a double.
Keating points out two other aspects of his fund that set it apart from many others. First, they don't use leverage, and second, unlike ETFs or traditional mutual funds, this one is a closed-end fund. Keating says this allows investors to "buy and sell our stock without us having to disturb the underlying portfolio." What that means is they don't have to keep cash on hand and never have to sell something they don't want to in order to raise money to pay investors who cash-out or redeem their shares. Not a small thing in this volatile market.
Banks park more money with ECB
Banks parked euro346.4 billion ($459.0 billion) overnight with the European Central Bank on Monday, reflecting increasing tensions in a banking system shaken by the eurozone debt crisis.
The figure announced Tuesday indicates banks would rather park cash at the ECB rather than lend it to other banks because they do not trust the other banks to pay them back.
The banking system is under stress from fears that eurozone governments will not be able to pay their debts and will default on bonds held by banks. Banks are under pressure from the European Union to find more money to build up their financial cushions.
Bulls Pout as Fed Stands Pat: Stage Set for “More Action” in 2012, Girard Says
U.S. futures are turning lower and the euro fell below its key $1.30 level this morning as markets react to an Italian debt sale and the FOMC's decision to leave monetary policy unchanged at Tuesday's meeting.
"They have set the stage for more action in 2012," Girard says, citing signals from the Fed about publishing its own expectations for the fed funds rate and, more dramatically, setting the stage for another round of QE focused on purchasing mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed is "leaning toward providing more accommodation," she says.
On Tuesday, the market leaned back on the Fed, expressing its disappointment and impatience.
Gold Sheds 'Can't Lose' Status: Now, No One Wants It
In just three months, gold has gone from the trade that works in every kind of market to the trade that doesn't work in any market.
"Gold was a safe haven, a hedge and a speculative trade all at the same time," said Michael Murphy, CEO of Rosecliff Capital, a hedge fund. "Long gold has been a winning trade for years. We expect the selloff in gold to gain momentum into 2012. Traders are finding better hedges, better safe havens, and better speculative commodity plays than long gold."
To be sure, gold has always been a volatile trade that can turn on a dime. Unlike a stock, there are no earnings behind the metal. It's only worth as much as what the next guy will pay for it. That dynamic has been skewed by the ETF and other retail money flowing into the trade this year, say long-term gold bulls.
"Bull markets climb a wall of worry," said Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital "These sharp drops shake out the speculators and keep other would-be buyers on the sidelines. Once the weak longs are cleared out, the trip to $2,000 and beyond will resume unencumbered by excess baggage."
Investors falling out of love with hedge funds
Deep cracks are starting to show in the love affair between hedge funds and their investors, after another year of paltry returns on expensive investments leaves many feeling cheated and close to bailing out.
Hedge funds, which made money both in 2001's tumbling markets and 2003's rally, have been caught out this year by whipsawing markets and high volatility amid the euro zone's prolonged and deepening debt crisis.
Equity funds -- which often rely on fundamental stock analysis -- have been particularly hurt, while macro funds, which bet on stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, have also left some investors disappointed.
A review of hedge fund performance compiled by HSBC seen by Reuters shows huge variance of more than 80 percentage points across the industry during 2011.
While the Paulson Advantage Plus fund was seen the worst performer this year, the Renaissance Institutional equities fund had advanced 32 percent by December 9.
Despite the humble returns, clients faced with volatile equity markets and meager returns on cash and government bonds markets aren't pulling out wholesale from hedge funds because they do not know where to re-allocate to.
Frustrated With Stocks? Here’s How to Profit From Pessimism
If you're frustrated with today's jittery financial markets, you're certainly not alone. Unfortunately there are no quick fixes to resolve the issues fueling the market's ups and downs --namely the European debt crisis, a shaky global economy, and U.S. political gridlock.
Finally, A Rich American Destroys The Fiction That Rich People Create The Jobs
In the war of rhetoric that has developed in Washington as both sides blame each other for our economic mess, one argument has been repeated so often that many people now regard it as fact:
Rich people create the jobs.
Specifically, entrepreneurs and investors, when incented by low taxes, build companies and create millions of jobs.
Now, there have long been many problems with this argument starting with
1.Taxes on rich people (capital gains and income) are, relative to history, low, so raising them would only begin to bring them back in line with prior prosperous periods, and
2.Dozens of rich entrepreneurs have already gone on record confirming that a modest hike in capital gains and income taxes would not have the slightest impact on their desire to create companies and jobs, given that tax rates are historically low.
So this argument, which many people regard as fact, is already flawed.
But now a super-rich and super-successful American has explained the most important reason the theory is absurd, while calling for higher taxes on himself and people like him.
The most important reason the theory that "rich people create the jobs" is absurd, argues Nick Hanauer, the founder of online advertising company aQuantive, which Microsoft bought for $6.4 billion, is that rich people do not create jobs, even if they found and build companies that eventually employ thousands of people.What creates the jobs, Hanauer astutely observes, is a healthy economic ecosystem surrounding the company, which starts with the company's customers.
The company's customers buy the company's products, which, in turn, creates the need for the employees to produce, sell, and service those products. If those customers go broke, the demand for the company's products will collapse. And the jobs will disappear, regardless of what the entrepreneur does.
(Or, to put it even more simply, it's like saying that a seed creates a tree. The seed does not create the tree. The seed starts the tree. But what creates the tree is the combination of the DNA in the seed and the soil, sunshine, water, atmosphere, nutrients, and other factors that nurture it. Plant the seed in an inhospitable environment, and it won't create anything. It will die.)
"Angry Birds" maker eyes Hong Kong IPO
The company which created "Angry Birds," the world's most popular computer game, is considering a stock market flotation in Hong Kong, joining the many foreign firms who have gone public there.
"In Asia there are growing markets -- the people and the money," Peter Vesterbacka, marketing chief of Finnish company Rovio, told Reuters.
Other large global firms to have gone public on the Hong Kong exchange include fashion house Prada, luggage maker Samsonite and cosmetics maker L'Occitane.
Companies benefit from access to high liquidity from Chinese pension funds and retail investors and the bourse offers higher valuations in some sectors.
"Angry Birds," in which players use a slingshot to attack pigs who steal the birds' eggs, has stayed top game since it was launched for Apple's iPhone in 2009.
Rovio was founded in 2003 after three students including Niklas Hed -- CEO Mikael Hed's cousin and now Rovio's COO -- won a game-development competition sponsored by Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia Oyj and Hewlett-Packard CO.
Although market participants are selectively buying stocks on the dip, the holding time is short on fear of market sell-off as market manipulators are using the downgrade news and sovereign debt crisis to move market.
Market will continue to swing on money flow. But it should be range bounded as it will attract buyers at recent bottom level and profit taking will constrain the rise of market. Currently, market support is being tested as market manipulators and hedge funds are attempting to move the market down. However, panic selling from market participants appears to fade away as market approaches recent bottom. And a lot of individual investors are still waiting for the opportunity to replenish the stocks in the portfolio. On the other hand, there is selling pressure from day traders taking profit on rebound.
There is a lot of capital flowing around the globe as well as speculation on financial assets. Household investors are seeing growth in personal wealth while institutional funds are under pressure from customers for return on investment.
Speculators can exploit market turbulence to make profit. Risk mitigation is an important factor to ride on market trend. Despite year end approaching, trading activities drop only slightly on coming holiday.
Last October, buying from individual investors drove market higher until early this year when market manipulators began to sell on market peak. Currently, after the sell-offs from year peak, individual investors are cautiously returning to the equity stock market with speculative buying and selling. There are still a lot of uncertainties that is reflected on the weak confidence of market participants.
The $200 Trillion World: Who Owns All the Wealth?
The wealth of the world -- from all the global stock markets, insurance funds, and families -- comes out to about $200 trillion, according to the McKinsey Global Institute's new report on investors in developing nations.
Households, mostly. U.S. and Western European households own about one-quarter of the world's financial assets, according the rather remarkable chart produced by the authors, which breaks down wealth by type and geography.
Until this decade, the preferences of investors in developed nations have shaped the evolution of global capital markets. Today these investors control 79 percent of the world's nearly $200 trillion in financial assets.
Broadly speaking, investors in developed economies hold highly diversified portfolios, with significant portions in equities. The United States stands out for consistently high equity allocations: currently US households have 42 percent of their non-retirement financial assets in publicly listed shares. Households in Hong Kong have similar shares of their wealth in equities. On average, Western European households placed 29 percent of their financial assets in equities in 2010, with 29 percent in the United Kingdom (down from 45 percent in 2000), 25 percent in France, and 19 percent in Germany.
Among developed nations, Japan stands out for its very low investment in equities. Despite a long tradition of equity investing by individual investors for most of the 20th century, Japanese households now hold less than 10 percent of their assets in equities, down from 30 percent before the 1989-90 crash. Because of low or negative returns over the past two decades, Japanese allocations have never exceeded 18 percent in this period.
A New Way to Access the Pre-IPO Market
This week could mark the busiest for the IPO market since November 2007. As many as 11 companies are expected to go public, including online gaming king Zynga.
This pre-IPO fever has been fueled, in part, by privately held social media phenomenons like Facebook and Twitter. Note Facebook's recently implied $100 billion valuation and it's easy to see why investors are salivating to get a hold of shares. But for the average investor, accumulating shares is virtually impossible until after the IPO.
If all of this seems a little too hot and trendy for your hard earned investment dollars, yet you acknowledge that value exists in being early to the party of discovery for young companies, then the just-listed Keating Pre-IPO Fund (KIPO) may be worth a peak.
While names like Facebook, Zynga, Twitter, and FourSquare are better known in the universe of pre-IPO companies, Keating says they don't offer the value, or upside potential, that is needed to join the 13 other pre-listed companies that have been added to the fund over the past two years. In addition to doing at least $10 million a year in sales as well as plans to go public within 18 months, perhaps the most exclusive barrier to his portfolio is the last, a valuation that will offer "a 2x return", a.k.a. a double.
Keating points out two other aspects of his fund that set it apart from many others. First, they don't use leverage, and second, unlike ETFs or traditional mutual funds, this one is a closed-end fund. Keating says this allows investors to "buy and sell our stock without us having to disturb the underlying portfolio." What that means is they don't have to keep cash on hand and never have to sell something they don't want to in order to raise money to pay investors who cash-out or redeem their shares. Not a small thing in this volatile market.
Banks park more money with ECB
Banks parked euro346.4 billion ($459.0 billion) overnight with the European Central Bank on Monday, reflecting increasing tensions in a banking system shaken by the eurozone debt crisis.
The figure announced Tuesday indicates banks would rather park cash at the ECB rather than lend it to other banks because they do not trust the other banks to pay them back.
The banking system is under stress from fears that eurozone governments will not be able to pay their debts and will default on bonds held by banks. Banks are under pressure from the European Union to find more money to build up their financial cushions.
Bulls Pout as Fed Stands Pat: Stage Set for “More Action” in 2012, Girard Says
U.S. futures are turning lower and the euro fell below its key $1.30 level this morning as markets react to an Italian debt sale and the FOMC's decision to leave monetary policy unchanged at Tuesday's meeting.
"They have set the stage for more action in 2012," Girard says, citing signals from the Fed about publishing its own expectations for the fed funds rate and, more dramatically, setting the stage for another round of QE focused on purchasing mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed is "leaning toward providing more accommodation," she says.
On Tuesday, the market leaned back on the Fed, expressing its disappointment and impatience.
Gold Sheds 'Can't Lose' Status: Now, No One Wants It
In just three months, gold has gone from the trade that works in every kind of market to the trade that doesn't work in any market.
"Gold was a safe haven, a hedge and a speculative trade all at the same time," said Michael Murphy, CEO of Rosecliff Capital, a hedge fund. "Long gold has been a winning trade for years. We expect the selloff in gold to gain momentum into 2012. Traders are finding better hedges, better safe havens, and better speculative commodity plays than long gold."
To be sure, gold has always been a volatile trade that can turn on a dime. Unlike a stock, there are no earnings behind the metal. It's only worth as much as what the next guy will pay for it. That dynamic has been skewed by the ETF and other retail money flowing into the trade this year, say long-term gold bulls.
"Bull markets climb a wall of worry," said Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital "These sharp drops shake out the speculators and keep other would-be buyers on the sidelines. Once the weak longs are cleared out, the trip to $2,000 and beyond will resume unencumbered by excess baggage."
Investors falling out of love with hedge funds
Deep cracks are starting to show in the love affair between hedge funds and their investors, after another year of paltry returns on expensive investments leaves many feeling cheated and close to bailing out.
Hedge funds, which made money both in 2001's tumbling markets and 2003's rally, have been caught out this year by whipsawing markets and high volatility amid the euro zone's prolonged and deepening debt crisis.
Equity funds -- which often rely on fundamental stock analysis -- have been particularly hurt, while macro funds, which bet on stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, have also left some investors disappointed.
A review of hedge fund performance compiled by HSBC seen by Reuters shows huge variance of more than 80 percentage points across the industry during 2011.
While the Paulson Advantage Plus fund was seen the worst performer this year, the Renaissance Institutional equities fund had advanced 32 percent by December 9.
Despite the humble returns, clients faced with volatile equity markets and meager returns on cash and government bonds markets aren't pulling out wholesale from hedge funds because they do not know where to re-allocate to.
Frustrated With Stocks? Here’s How to Profit From Pessimism
If you're frustrated with today's jittery financial markets, you're certainly not alone. Unfortunately there are no quick fixes to resolve the issues fueling the market's ups and downs --namely the European debt crisis, a shaky global economy, and U.S. political gridlock.
Finally, A Rich American Destroys The Fiction That Rich People Create The Jobs
In the war of rhetoric that has developed in Washington as both sides blame each other for our economic mess, one argument has been repeated so often that many people now regard it as fact:
Rich people create the jobs.
Specifically, entrepreneurs and investors, when incented by low taxes, build companies and create millions of jobs.
Now, there have long been many problems with this argument starting with
1.Taxes on rich people (capital gains and income) are, relative to history, low, so raising them would only begin to bring them back in line with prior prosperous periods, and
2.Dozens of rich entrepreneurs have already gone on record confirming that a modest hike in capital gains and income taxes would not have the slightest impact on their desire to create companies and jobs, given that tax rates are historically low.
So this argument, which many people regard as fact, is already flawed.
But now a super-rich and super-successful American has explained the most important reason the theory is absurd, while calling for higher taxes on himself and people like him.
The most important reason the theory that "rich people create the jobs" is absurd, argues Nick Hanauer, the founder of online advertising company aQuantive, which Microsoft bought for $6.4 billion, is that rich people do not create jobs, even if they found and build companies that eventually employ thousands of people.What creates the jobs, Hanauer astutely observes, is a healthy economic ecosystem surrounding the company, which starts with the company's customers.
The company's customers buy the company's products, which, in turn, creates the need for the employees to produce, sell, and service those products. If those customers go broke, the demand for the company's products will collapse. And the jobs will disappear, regardless of what the entrepreneur does.
(Or, to put it even more simply, it's like saying that a seed creates a tree. The seed does not create the tree. The seed starts the tree. But what creates the tree is the combination of the DNA in the seed and the soil, sunshine, water, atmosphere, nutrients, and other factors that nurture it. Plant the seed in an inhospitable environment, and it won't create anything. It will die.)
"Angry Birds" maker eyes Hong Kong IPO
The company which created "Angry Birds," the world's most popular computer game, is considering a stock market flotation in Hong Kong, joining the many foreign firms who have gone public there.
"In Asia there are growing markets -- the people and the money," Peter Vesterbacka, marketing chief of Finnish company Rovio, told Reuters.
Other large global firms to have gone public on the Hong Kong exchange include fashion house Prada, luggage maker Samsonite and cosmetics maker L'Occitane.
Companies benefit from access to high liquidity from Chinese pension funds and retail investors and the bourse offers higher valuations in some sectors.
"Angry Birds," in which players use a slingshot to attack pigs who steal the birds' eggs, has stayed top game since it was launched for Apple's iPhone in 2009.
Rovio was founded in 2003 after three students including Niklas Hed -- CEO Mikael Hed's cousin and now Rovio's COO -- won a game-development competition sponsored by Finnish mobile phone maker Nokia Oyj and Hewlett-Packard CO.
Monday, December 12, 2011
《蘋果》報導捱轟
上水彩園路的簡體字告示牌（右）與繁體字版本（左）只數步距離。
【東方日報】新界部分地區近期新增一些簡體字告示牌，方便內地或新來港人士了解本港法例，減少違規情況。這些簡體字告示牌附近通常會設繁體字告示牌以作對照，但有報章以偏概全，聲稱只見簡體、不見繁體告示牌，危言聳聽指港人可能遭「簡體化」。有區議員質疑有報章「知啲唔知啲及譁眾取寵」，沒有提及告示牌其實是繁簡體兼備。
《蘋果日報》昨日一篇報道聲稱發現上水港鐵站外等新界部分地區，豎立的告示牌只用簡體中文，旁邊並無繁體字告示牌對照，直指港人遭「簡體化」。
不過，本報記者昨日到場巡視，發現彩園邨對面十個藍底白字告示牌，實際上是繁、簡體各佔一半，部分繁、簡體告示牌更只一步之隔，並無出現所謂只見簡體不見繁體的情況。
繁簡字兼備 方便內地客
北區區議員蘇西智表示，由於上水區水貨客違規在行人路上擺放貨物情況嚴重，他們多為內地或新來港人士，因此在政府跨部門小組會議中，建議在彩園路豎立繁、簡體俱備的告示牌，提示水貨客遵守法例。他指該處的告示牌不可能只有簡體字，質疑有報章「知啲唔知啲、譁眾取寵」。
屯門區區議員陳雲生則指出，屯門區的新來港人士較多，他們未必能完全看得懂繁體字，因此豎立簡體字告示牌，方便閱覽，實屬無可厚非。「有好多規定，香港人好早已經認識，但新來港的人士未必知，整啲簡體字牌出嚟，可以提醒佢哋，無乜問題！」
用何種字體 看受文對象
公務員事務局發言人回應指，本港法例並無就政府中文公文訂明必須使用繁體或簡體字，由於本港社會向來慣用繁體字，因此政府發出的公文，一般採繁體字。不過，部門亦會因應實際情況，例如公函受文對象而使用簡化字。
警方表示，新界北區交通部是應地區人士要求，○五年開始在區內多個地點放置簡體字的「行人路踏單車 會被檢控」告示牌，提醒市民注意單車安全，警方會不時檢討有關安排。
Sunday, December 11, 2011
政府簡體化港人 告示牌棄用繁體字
屯門良景邨的馬路旁掛上簡體字警告牌，沒有繁體字作對照。
【蘋果日報】香港回歸 14年，連文字也回歸？大多數本港市民使用繁體中文作書面溝通，雖然法例無規定，但政府網頁一般備有繁體和簡體版。《蘋果》發現警方在新界部份地區豎立的警告牌只用簡體中文，旁邊未見繁體字對照，被網民質疑是警隊邁向「公安化」；有區議員擔心這是政府溫水煮蛙的「去繁體字行動」，直接破壞香港文化價值。
記者先後在屯門良景邨和上水港鐵站見到由警務處發出的簡體字警告牌，其中位於良景邨的警告牌掛在行人路旁，由新界北交通部發出，用簡體字寫上「行人路上踏單車會被檢控」的警告字句，附近並無繁體字警告牌。
本報就有關問題向警方查詢，發言人數日後作書面回覆時完全沒有回應用簡體警告牌的理由，只「答非所問」稱：「由於新界北地理環境特殊，市民以單車為康樂活動或短程代步交通工具普遍。」他又指新界北總區交通部在區內多個地點放置警告牌，警告市民在行人路上踏單車會被檢控，而警告牌是因地區人士要求，於 2005年開始使用。
憂繁體字變集體回憶警告牌的字句雖不複雜，也屬較常見的簡體字，但有附近居民認為，需照顧較年長一輩的港人未必看得懂簡體。賴太和同行的 10歲女兒表示能看懂每個字，但她直言「唔係好慣，要適應」。賴太認為警告牌同時有繁體中文和英文字版本較恰當。讀中四的成同學表示，未必人人看得懂簡體字，他個人也「睇唔慣」，並認為香港回歸後不需要轉用簡體中文。亦有巿民形容事件是警隊步向公安化。
而上水港鐵站外亦有約 10個相同警告牌，集中在彩園邨和彩蒲苑對面，用簡體字寫上「貨物阻街，會被檢控；亂泊單車，會被清走；亂拋垃圾，罰款千五」字句，由警務處、食環署和民政署聯合發出，當中只有一個警告牌旁邊設繁體字版本對照。
元朗區議員鄺俊宇表示，近期發現一些政府部門發出的通告用簡體字，他認為繁體字是本港地道文化，應捍衞：「雖然好小事，擔心政府係溫水煮蛙，慢慢瓦解我哋嘅文化，陰啲陰啲咁用簡體字。第一次用無人出聲，第十次、一百次後就成為習慣，我唔想 10年、 20年後繁體字變成香港人另一集體回憶。」
政府公文多用繁體字
根據法定語文事務部資料，本港法定語文為中文和英文，政府向公眾發表的主要文件均備有中英文本，立法會和政府會議會視乎需要，提供英語、廣東話和普通話的即時傳譯。
至於政府的中文公文可有繁體或簡體的規定？公務員事務局發言人指出，本港法例無相關訂明，但由於本港社會向來慣用繁體字，政府發出的公文一般採用繁體字。
政府部門亦會因應實際情況，例如公函受文對象，使用簡體字。
記者：馮樂琳、黃學潤
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Queen of England's income frozen until 2015
Even Britain's reigning monarch is affected by economic downturn as new law passes. Queen Elizabeth II faces a freeze on her income through at least 2015 thanks to funding cuts for the royal household resulting from a recently passed law. Her income has already dropped in real terms since 2009 as she has joined the millions of others affected by the economic downturn.
The funding for the royal family has traditionally come from the civil list, a public fund controlled by the British Parliament. However, a law passed six weeks ago will replace the civil list with a single fund, the sovereign grant, in April 2013.
With no extra tax funds to pay for the court of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, Will and Kate’s staff will be subsidized by the Prince of Wales, according to a report in The Sunday Times. The Prince of Wales’ income derives from the Duchy of Cornwall, which also is responsible for financially supporting Prince Harry and any future wife and children. The Duchy of Cornwall reportedly made 17.8 million last year, and although it will be paying for Will and Kate’s staff, structural repairs to Kensington Palace will still be taxpayer-funded.
That most likely means a paycut for the Queen at least through April 2015. In 2010-11, the royal household had an income of 32.1 million, a far cry from the 77.3 million in taxpayer funding that the Queen once enjoyed back in 1991-92.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Growth In Household Wealth Shifts Market Dynamics
Stocks ended with gains for a second straight week. Trading activity is decreasing as market participants are slowly finishing up the trades for the year. Major players of market manipulation have already finished the work for the year with the profit acquired in the series of sell-offs. With the exception of some traders and funds, most of other market participants suffer loss for the year due to decline in the price of stocks in the portfolio.
In the absence of major market manipulators, day traders lose the leader to follow as in the sell-offs. Market participants still exhibit pessimism on concern of European sovereign debt crisis. However, the majority of portfolios are already thin on stock holdings but rich in cash. As a result, investors are reluctant to trim the portfolio further.
Market have been trading in a range for some time after the steep drop triggered by US rating downgrade. Day traders and speculators learn to trade accordingly. Near the range boundary, traders will quickly flip the positions to take profit and initiate new positions. Therefore, market participants are expecting a decline after the strong rebound from recent bottom.
But market dynamics may change as market manipulators may be absent for the rest of the year. The stocks in circulation among traders are purchased at a price much higher than market bottom. The shares at market bottom are largely purchased by bargain hunting investors for long term investment and market manipulators during short covering.
Household wealth have been growing steadily as economy stabilizes and personal saving increases. Although individual investors remain pessimistic on stock market, the growing portfolio value due to cash inflow from saving and stock dividend strength investor confidence.
If market manipulators cease to dump stocks to create market panic, market participants will look for better use of the cash in the portfolio. Dividend paying blue-chip stocks are the most desired because of steady growth in corporate earnings. Less aggressive investors will eye on corporate bonds.
Guess What? The U.S. Car Industry Is Back From The Dead
Car sales in the U.S. rose to the highest level in two years in November. And the U.S. car giants continue to recover as well.
Just as encouraging, says Bill Holstein, author of The Next American Economy and Why GM Matters, the average age of cars in America is now over 10 years, as compared to 6 or so years at the peak of the economic boom. This suggests that Americans will have to continue to buy new cars to replace the ones they have, which bodes well for future car sales.
Chrysler, Ford, and Nissan reported the strongest gains in November. Holstein is surprised by Chrysler in particular, which he thought would suffer from its merger with Fiat. Chrysler's sales, Holstein says, are being powered by the resurgent Jeep division, which saw sales leap an extraordinary 50% year over year. This explains why you see so many shiny new Jeeps all over the place.
Don’t get mad at Wall Street, get even
Mutual-fund managers will sell a losing stock near the end of the year in order to avoid having their disastrous bets memorialized in year-end reports.
Note carefully that there is no legitimate investment reason for this activity. After all, it is pursued for appearance’s sake only, since selling a stock after it has already lost does nothing to recover the loss. In fact, there is some research suggesting that window dressing can actually hurt a fund’s performance.
If the future is like the past, the short-term profit you turn with stocks such as these will come at the expense of the mutual funds who sold them in a vain attempt to fool us. It will serve them right.
Risk on/risk off and Moneyball economics
Risk on, risk off. No four words could better describe the frustrating year that was 2011.
For those of us who consider ourselves value investors, the risk on/risk off trade is particularly frustrating because the market has made little distinction in 2011 between the wheat and the chaff. When the market is in "risk on" mode, everything tends to rise in lockstep with little regard for price or quality. And investors differentiate even less in "risk off" mode, throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
If Europe's leaders manage to reestablish confidence in their respective sovereign bond markets, then it's "risk on" and commodities and lower quality, more speculative stocks should do phenomenally well. But if we have another setback — say, if a major piece of reform legislation gets torpedoed by squabbling among Euro nations, or a botched referendum — then it's "risk off" and you'd better be in cash.
In my view, this means implementing a dividend-focused strategy. Buy companies that survived the 2008 meltdown intact and actually raised their dividends that year. At current prices, your risk of long-term or permanent loss may be lessened. And if Europe's economy blows up, you can be reasonably certain that your dividend checks won't bounce.
Raising Taxes on the Rich: Not Whether, but How
This time last year Republicans were insisting that the Bush tax cuts be made permanent without paying for a penny of the cost, even though there is no evidence that they stimulated the economy.
Republicans like to pretend that cutting spending is economically costless, even stimulative, whereas raising taxes in any way whatsoever is so economically debilitating that it dare not be contemplated. This view is complete nonsense.
Careful studies by the Congressional Budget Office and others show that certain spending programs are highly stimulative, whereas tax cuts provide very little bang for the buck.
Keep in mind that these results are symmetrical. A policy with a high multiplier, such as government purchases, will reduce the gross domestic product by exactly the same amount if it involves spending cuts. A tax cut with a low multiplier will have an equally small negative economic effect if it is instead done as a tax increase.
Growing numbers of millionaires and billionaires have gone on record as favoring higher taxes on the rich, because they can afford them and think they're necessary to deal with our nation's fiscal problem, which is largely due to historically low revenues.
It is no longer possible to deny that there has been a sharp rise in the income and wealth of the ultra-rich while everyone else's income has stagnated. Authoritative recent studies by the Congressional Budget Office and by Anthony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez prove that fact beyond question.
But the idea that the rich cannot or should not pay more should be dismissed out of hand. They can and must pay more; the only question is how best to do it.
Fed Is “Ruining an Entire Class of Investors” Says Jim Rogers
Rogers has been a critic of the Fed's quantitative easing programs and artificially low interest rates, pointing to the latter as something akin to QE3 in drag.
"What the Federal Reserve is doing now is ruining an entire class of investors," says Rogers. By forcing rates down and keeping the economy on a flatline, he believes the Fed could cause another lost generation of investments. Suffice it to say, vaporizing those who faithfully accumulated savings over the years is no way to restore confidence in our financial markets.
"I'm long commodities and currencies; I'm short emerging market stocks, U.S. technology stocks, and I'm short European stocks," Rogers tells me after pronouncing himself a terrible market timer (author's note: He's nothing of the sort). His logic behind the portfolio is that he wins if the economy turns up due to commodity scarcity. And if the economy remains weak, Rogers' short positions will more than offset his long positions.
2012 Mortgage delinquencies seen dropping sharply
If the U.S. economy does not suffer more setbacks, the rate of mortgage holders behind on their payments should decline significantly by the end of next year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.
Banks are still working through a backlog of foreclosures created by issues including the robo-signing scandal, in which bank officials signed mortgage documents without verifying the information they contained. The issue surfaced last year in areas with large numbers of foreclosures, and banks had to backtrack and review foreclosures across the country to make sure their paperwork was in order.
Helping to cut the mortgage delinquency rate are a slowly improving job market and a stabilizing housing market.
The situation with credit cards is much stronger. Card delinquencies — payments late by 90 days or more — dropped to their lowest levels in 17 years during the spring, then saw a slight increase in the third quarter, but still remained near historic lows.
One reason card delinquencies are expected to remain so low is that credit is much tighter than it was before the recession. TransUnion data showed that nearly a quarter million new card accounts were opened by people with less-than-stellar credit scores during the third quarter, which contributed to the slight increase in late payments during the summer months. But banks are mainly still going after consumers with top-tier credit histories.
"People were protecting their home equity," he said. Credit cards were relatively easy to come by in years past, he said, so when money got tight, it was an easy decision to default on cards and maintain house payments. Now it's common to owe more on a mortgage than a house is actually worth, but credit cards are harder to get. So consumers are being practical and protecting what is more valuable to them.
He said he expects the equation will shift again if housing prices rebound and people go back to building home equity.
Occupy protesters take over homes, block evictions
In more than two dozens cities across the nation Tuesday, an offshoot of the Occupy Wall Street movement took on the housing crisis by re-occupying foreclosed homes, disrupting bank auctions and blocking evictions.
Hundreds of demonstrators slogged through the rainy streets of East New York, Brooklyn, stopping at the foreclosed homes that are littered throughout the low-income community and covering the "For Sale" signs with Occupy police tape.
Their message, as spelled out on protest signs: "Bail Out Workers, not the Banks."
The protesters' ultimate destination was a home that has been vacant ever since it was repossessed by the bank a couple of years ago. The plan was to take it over permanently and give it to a homeless family to live in.
In Minneapolis, protesters are trying to block the evictions of several area owners who fell behind on their mortgages because of illness or income loss.
One homeowner they're trying to help is Bobby Hull, an ex-marine and a master plasterer and contractor who has lived in his home since 1968. Hull still has income and access to financial help from family members, just not enough to pay his bloated mortgage principal.
"I can afford $800 or $900 a month; I can't afford $1,200 to $1,500," said Hull.
Foreclosure in his case made no sense, said Anthony Newby of Neighborhoods Organizing for Change. His mortgage balance was $275,000 but the auction of his home only fetched $80,000, less than one-third of the amount he owed. Everybody, including the bank, would have been better off reducing his balance to an affordable level, said Newby.
European CEOs Move Cash to Germany
Grupo Gowex, a Spanish provider of Wi-Fi wireless services, is moving funds to Germany because it expects Spain to exit the euro. German machinery maker GEA Group AG is setting maximum amounts held at any one bank.
The Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, registered capital inflows of 11.3 billion euros ($15 billion) from non-banks in September, according to the breakdown of its current account published Nov. 9. That helped transform a deficit of 47.3 billion euros in Germany's balance of other capital flows in August to a surplus of 700 million euros in September.
Companies outside the euro region are doing just as much preparation as those inside. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said yesterday he's seen studies suggesting a collapse of the euro would lead to a "very significant" drop in U.K. economic output.
Top of the list of concerns among companies is the collapse of one or more financial institutions in Europe. Executives say they're already moving money around to avert that risk.
Corporate warnings bode ill for earnings
On top of euro zone debt troubles, Wall Street now has to worry about sagging sales from Europe as a recession in the region seems more likely.
Earnings are now expected to increase 10.1 percent for the fourth quarter, down from a growth estimate of 15 percent at the start of October and from an estimate of 17.6 percent in July, according to Thomson Reuters data.
But the market for months has struggled with the news from Europe, which featured the lack of resolution to the debt crisis, causing high uncertainty for investors.
Prospects for profit and revenue growth have been among the chief reasons why a good number of analysts remain optimistic about stocks heading into 2012.
In the absence of major market manipulators, day traders lose the leader to follow as in the sell-offs. Market participants still exhibit pessimism on concern of European sovereign debt crisis. However, the majority of portfolios are already thin on stock holdings but rich in cash. As a result, investors are reluctant to trim the portfolio further.
Market have been trading in a range for some time after the steep drop triggered by US rating downgrade. Day traders and speculators learn to trade accordingly. Near the range boundary, traders will quickly flip the positions to take profit and initiate new positions. Therefore, market participants are expecting a decline after the strong rebound from recent bottom.
But market dynamics may change as market manipulators may be absent for the rest of the year. The stocks in circulation among traders are purchased at a price much higher than market bottom. The shares at market bottom are largely purchased by bargain hunting investors for long term investment and market manipulators during short covering.
Household wealth have been growing steadily as economy stabilizes and personal saving increases. Although individual investors remain pessimistic on stock market, the growing portfolio value due to cash inflow from saving and stock dividend strength investor confidence.
If market manipulators cease to dump stocks to create market panic, market participants will look for better use of the cash in the portfolio. Dividend paying blue-chip stocks are the most desired because of steady growth in corporate earnings. Less aggressive investors will eye on corporate bonds.
Guess What? The U.S. Car Industry Is Back From The Dead
Car sales in the U.S. rose to the highest level in two years in November. And the U.S. car giants continue to recover as well.
Just as encouraging, says Bill Holstein, author of The Next American Economy and Why GM Matters, the average age of cars in America is now over 10 years, as compared to 6 or so years at the peak of the economic boom. This suggests that Americans will have to continue to buy new cars to replace the ones they have, which bodes well for future car sales.
Chrysler, Ford, and Nissan reported the strongest gains in November. Holstein is surprised by Chrysler in particular, which he thought would suffer from its merger with Fiat. Chrysler's sales, Holstein says, are being powered by the resurgent Jeep division, which saw sales leap an extraordinary 50% year over year. This explains why you see so many shiny new Jeeps all over the place.
Don’t get mad at Wall Street, get even
Mutual-fund managers will sell a losing stock near the end of the year in order to avoid having their disastrous bets memorialized in year-end reports.
Note carefully that there is no legitimate investment reason for this activity. After all, it is pursued for appearance’s sake only, since selling a stock after it has already lost does nothing to recover the loss. In fact, there is some research suggesting that window dressing can actually hurt a fund’s performance.
If the future is like the past, the short-term profit you turn with stocks such as these will come at the expense of the mutual funds who sold them in a vain attempt to fool us. It will serve them right.
Risk on/risk off and Moneyball economics
Risk on, risk off. No four words could better describe the frustrating year that was 2011.
For those of us who consider ourselves value investors, the risk on/risk off trade is particularly frustrating because the market has made little distinction in 2011 between the wheat and the chaff. When the market is in "risk on" mode, everything tends to rise in lockstep with little regard for price or quality. And investors differentiate even less in "risk off" mode, throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
If Europe's leaders manage to reestablish confidence in their respective sovereign bond markets, then it's "risk on" and commodities and lower quality, more speculative stocks should do phenomenally well. But if we have another setback — say, if a major piece of reform legislation gets torpedoed by squabbling among Euro nations, or a botched referendum — then it's "risk off" and you'd better be in cash.
In my view, this means implementing a dividend-focused strategy. Buy companies that survived the 2008 meltdown intact and actually raised their dividends that year. At current prices, your risk of long-term or permanent loss may be lessened. And if Europe's economy blows up, you can be reasonably certain that your dividend checks won't bounce.
Raising Taxes on the Rich: Not Whether, but How
This time last year Republicans were insisting that the Bush tax cuts be made permanent without paying for a penny of the cost, even though there is no evidence that they stimulated the economy.
Republicans like to pretend that cutting spending is economically costless, even stimulative, whereas raising taxes in any way whatsoever is so economically debilitating that it dare not be contemplated. This view is complete nonsense.
Careful studies by the Congressional Budget Office and others show that certain spending programs are highly stimulative, whereas tax cuts provide very little bang for the buck.
Keep in mind that these results are symmetrical. A policy with a high multiplier, such as government purchases, will reduce the gross domestic product by exactly the same amount if it involves spending cuts. A tax cut with a low multiplier will have an equally small negative economic effect if it is instead done as a tax increase.
Growing numbers of millionaires and billionaires have gone on record as favoring higher taxes on the rich, because they can afford them and think they're necessary to deal with our nation's fiscal problem, which is largely due to historically low revenues.
It is no longer possible to deny that there has been a sharp rise in the income and wealth of the ultra-rich while everyone else's income has stagnated. Authoritative recent studies by the Congressional Budget Office and by Anthony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez prove that fact beyond question.
But the idea that the rich cannot or should not pay more should be dismissed out of hand. They can and must pay more; the only question is how best to do it.
Fed Is “Ruining an Entire Class of Investors” Says Jim Rogers
Rogers has been a critic of the Fed's quantitative easing programs and artificially low interest rates, pointing to the latter as something akin to QE3 in drag.
"What the Federal Reserve is doing now is ruining an entire class of investors," says Rogers. By forcing rates down and keeping the economy on a flatline, he believes the Fed could cause another lost generation of investments. Suffice it to say, vaporizing those who faithfully accumulated savings over the years is no way to restore confidence in our financial markets.
"I'm long commodities and currencies; I'm short emerging market stocks, U.S. technology stocks, and I'm short European stocks," Rogers tells me after pronouncing himself a terrible market timer (author's note: He's nothing of the sort). His logic behind the portfolio is that he wins if the economy turns up due to commodity scarcity. And if the economy remains weak, Rogers' short positions will more than offset his long positions.
2012 Mortgage delinquencies seen dropping sharply
If the U.S. economy does not suffer more setbacks, the rate of mortgage holders behind on their payments should decline significantly by the end of next year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.
Banks are still working through a backlog of foreclosures created by issues including the robo-signing scandal, in which bank officials signed mortgage documents without verifying the information they contained. The issue surfaced last year in areas with large numbers of foreclosures, and banks had to backtrack and review foreclosures across the country to make sure their paperwork was in order.
Helping to cut the mortgage delinquency rate are a slowly improving job market and a stabilizing housing market.
The situation with credit cards is much stronger. Card delinquencies — payments late by 90 days or more — dropped to their lowest levels in 17 years during the spring, then saw a slight increase in the third quarter, but still remained near historic lows.
One reason card delinquencies are expected to remain so low is that credit is much tighter than it was before the recession. TransUnion data showed that nearly a quarter million new card accounts were opened by people with less-than-stellar credit scores during the third quarter, which contributed to the slight increase in late payments during the summer months. But banks are mainly still going after consumers with top-tier credit histories.
"People were protecting their home equity," he said. Credit cards were relatively easy to come by in years past, he said, so when money got tight, it was an easy decision to default on cards and maintain house payments. Now it's common to owe more on a mortgage than a house is actually worth, but credit cards are harder to get. So consumers are being practical and protecting what is more valuable to them.
He said he expects the equation will shift again if housing prices rebound and people go back to building home equity.
Occupy protesters take over homes, block evictions
In more than two dozens cities across the nation Tuesday, an offshoot of the Occupy Wall Street movement took on the housing crisis by re-occupying foreclosed homes, disrupting bank auctions and blocking evictions.
Hundreds of demonstrators slogged through the rainy streets of East New York, Brooklyn, stopping at the foreclosed homes that are littered throughout the low-income community and covering the "For Sale" signs with Occupy police tape.
Their message, as spelled out on protest signs: "Bail Out Workers, not the Banks."
The protesters' ultimate destination was a home that has been vacant ever since it was repossessed by the bank a couple of years ago. The plan was to take it over permanently and give it to a homeless family to live in.
In Minneapolis, protesters are trying to block the evictions of several area owners who fell behind on their mortgages because of illness or income loss.
One homeowner they're trying to help is Bobby Hull, an ex-marine and a master plasterer and contractor who has lived in his home since 1968. Hull still has income and access to financial help from family members, just not enough to pay his bloated mortgage principal.
"I can afford $800 or $900 a month; I can't afford $1,200 to $1,500," said Hull.
Foreclosure in his case made no sense, said Anthony Newby of Neighborhoods Organizing for Change. His mortgage balance was $275,000 but the auction of his home only fetched $80,000, less than one-third of the amount he owed. Everybody, including the bank, would have been better off reducing his balance to an affordable level, said Newby.
European CEOs Move Cash to Germany
Grupo Gowex, a Spanish provider of Wi-Fi wireless services, is moving funds to Germany because it expects Spain to exit the euro. German machinery maker GEA Group AG is setting maximum amounts held at any one bank.
The Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, registered capital inflows of 11.3 billion euros ($15 billion) from non-banks in September, according to the breakdown of its current account published Nov. 9. That helped transform a deficit of 47.3 billion euros in Germany's balance of other capital flows in August to a surplus of 700 million euros in September.
Companies outside the euro region are doing just as much preparation as those inside. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said yesterday he's seen studies suggesting a collapse of the euro would lead to a "very significant" drop in U.K. economic output.
Top of the list of concerns among companies is the collapse of one or more financial institutions in Europe. Executives say they're already moving money around to avert that risk.
Corporate warnings bode ill for earnings
On top of euro zone debt troubles, Wall Street now has to worry about sagging sales from Europe as a recession in the region seems more likely.
Earnings are now expected to increase 10.1 percent for the fourth quarter, down from a growth estimate of 15 percent at the start of October and from an estimate of 17.6 percent in July, according to Thomson Reuters data.
But the market for months has struggled with the news from Europe, which featured the lack of resolution to the debt crisis, causing high uncertainty for investors.
Prospects for profit and revenue growth have been among the chief reasons why a good number of analysts remain optimistic about stocks heading into 2012.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Strong Rebound On Investors Buying Followed By Short Covering
Market rebounds strongly in the week after an extended decline for many days. At the end of the week before, market fell to near previous bottom level. It is uncertain which direction market will go, whether to continue to fall or to rebound. As mentioned, there are both sellers and buyers on speculation or bargain hunting. The outcome is a strong rally which indicates that buyers' appetite is stronger than sellers. This bottom level has been reached before. And this indicates that market participants may regard this bottom level as a strong support. However, investors confidence remains low as European sovereign debt crisis remains a market concern. Market manipulators continue to use it as an excuse to create panic among investors.
As year end is approaching, many market participants are beginning to leave the market to draw an end to this year's work. Market manipulators have covered most of the short positions. The net profit is significant and they outperform the majority of market participants with their selling strategy starting from market peak in the year. Some individual investors are able to track market manipulators and sell the way down to recent bottom. However, the majority of individual investors are too late to follow the selling strategy. And many have sold at the bottom. Institutional investors also suffer significant loss after the market sell-offs. Fortunately, investors remain calm despite repeated sell-offs. Thus the pressure to liquidate portfolio to satisfy customer redemption is not severe.
Market participants remain cautious that market manipulators may create more market sell-offs. Therefore investors are still holding large amount of cash on hand. Many market participants have missed the opportunity to replenish the portfolio at the bottom as market opened sharply higher at the beginning of week from last week's recent bottom. The pessimistic investor sentiment in the market weaken the desire to purchase stocks but to wait for further decline from previous bottom. However there are no panic sellers to fulfill the desire to drive market further down. And a wave of buying triggers short covering from market manipulators and day traders to realize profit from earlier short selling.
Market manipulators and institutional investors are preparing for the year end vacation. However day traders and individual investors remain active on hope to recover some of the loss incurred from the market sell-offs in the past months.
It appears that there is strong support for market at recent bottom. However, many investors are still thin in portfolio and have plenty of cash to wait for market drop. On the other hand, holders of stock are not willing to dump at this level. Hot capital in the market will continue to create market turbulence which is also opportunity for speculators.
Bush tax cuts: The real endgame
Congress has a way of waiting to the very last minute to resolve big issues, so December is usually a busy month on Capitol Hill. This year will be no exception.
This December, for example, lawmakers will have to decide, among other things, whether to extend the payroll tax cut, long-term unemployment benefits, the Medicare "doc fix," Alternative Minimum Tax relief and a bevy of business tax breaks.
But that list -- worth less than $1 trillion -- will pale in comparison to the $5 trillion of fiscal decisions likely to be left for a lame-duck Congress during the seven weeks between the Nov. 6 election and New Year's Eve.
Bush-era tax cuts: If Congress does nothing, the 2001, 2003 and 2006 tax cuts will expire at the end of December 2012.
If they do expire, most Americans' tax bills would go up and the surge of additional revenue into federal coffers would greatly improve the deficit picture over the next decade.
"I expect a go-big, $3 trillion to $4 trillion deficit reduction plan," said long-term budget expert Stan Collender.
As with most presidential budget proposals, however, Congress won't adopt it in whole, or even necessarily in part.
Black Friday: Record $52.4 billion spent, according to NRF
Earlier than ever store openings and steep discounts helped retailers notch record sales this Black Friday weekend, according to early reports.
Total spending over the four-day weekend following Thanksgiving reached a record $52.4 billion, up 16% from $45 billion last year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation released Sunday.
Cyber Monday could also notch a new record, according to online tracking firm ComScore. Online sales for 2011 are projected to hit $1.2 billion, up from $1 billion last year, Andrew Lipsman, ComScore's industry analyst, said.
While Black Friday marks the unofficial start of the holiday season, it is still too early to say whether this consumer spending momentum will continue until Christmas, noted NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis.
Black Friday isn't the only game in town
"There are hundreds of promotions going on this time of year," says Steve Uline, head of marketing for Gander. "We needed to do something a little bit different."
"Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving, in the 1960s became known as the point when merchants turn a profit or operate "in the black." Later, retailers began marketing it as the start of the holiday shopping season with earlier store hours and deep discounts of up to 70 percent off.
It's since become the busiest shopping day of the year. This past weekend, "Black Friday" sales were $11.4 billion, up 7 percent, or nearly $1 billion from the same day last year, according to a report by ShopperTrak, which gathers data from 25,000 outlets across the country. It was the largest amount ever spent on that day.
Marketers are hoping to strike gold again. Many are doing so by appealing to Americans who've become disenchanted with big business and commercialism.
The Rising Cost of Free Shipping
Shoppers may have more incentive to buy online this year: the sales are as big as -- if not better than -- in-store offers and many retailers are offering free shipping. The catch, say experts: Shoppers have to spend a lot more.
A growing number of sites automatically offer free shipping on orders of a certain amount, no coupon code required, Knowles says. In the past year, JC Penney, Macy's, L.L. Bean, Gap and Nordstrom all moved to that model. Such offers let shoppers grab free shipping and still use a coupon code (or two) to further reduce their total.
Annual compensation could fall 30 percent at Wall St firms
Annual compensation for employees at big Wall Street firms could fall 27-30 percent from a year earlier to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a compensation study conducted by the Options Group.
Bonuses, which constitute a substantial part of many finance workers' pay, are on track to decline 35-40 percent, on average, according to the forecast by Options Group, an executive search and consulting firm, the Journal said.
How the Fed Rescue Benefited Banks
A report by Bloomberg News offers a new way of quantifying the Federal Reserve's vast efforts to save financial companies from collapse during the crisis that peaked in 2008.
The central bank provided emergency loans, asset purchases and other aid totaling roughly $7.8 trillion during a two-year period ending in March 2009, easily the largest component of the government efforts to bulwark the financial system.
In an article in the January issue of Bloomberg Markets, published online Sunday night, Bloomberg offers an estimate that the aid allowed financial companies to book profits of roughly $13 billion during that period, largely by borrowing from the Fed at low interest rates and then using the money to make loans and investments with higher rates of return.
The estimate may well overstate the direct value of the Fed's loans, as banks used much of the money for short-term purposes that tend to have lower profit margins. Importantly, however, it also greatly understates the broader value of the loans: The money helped many recipients to survive.
Citigroup is a case in point. Bloomberg estimates that the Fed's loans increased the bank's profits by $1.8 billion. The real story, of course, is that government help saved the troubled bank from collapse.
Top central banks move to avoid global liquidity crunch
Central banks from the world's leading developed economies said on Wednesday they will take coordinated steps to prevent a lack of liquidity in the global financial system, as the euro zone attempts to find a way to stem its debt crisis.
The surprise coordinated move by central banks was aimed at preventing global financial markets from coming under pressure that could potentially lead to a seizing up of credit.
"The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity," the banks said in typically stilted language.
Don’t Hate the Game and Don’t Call It a “Sucker’s Rally”
A day after coordinated central bank action sent financial markets screaming higher, Thursday was shaping up as a day of rest and reflection -- and a little bit of giveback.
But don't call the gains this week (remember, Monday was a big up day too) a "sucker's rally", says my Breakout colleague Jeff Macke.
"You can't describe it as 'sucker's rally' because we had negative numbers today," Macke says. "Data for the whole week has just crushed...been so good, so positive," including a big jump in consumer confidence, a strong ADP employment report, a very positive Chicago PMI report, as well as today's generally solid November same-store sales data.
Of course, housing data remains punk and third-quarter productivity was revised down but the data provide "strong evidence the American economy, like it or not, is improving," Macke says.
"Like it or not" may be the operative phrase when it comes to the rally itself. As I mentioned in our Twitter-chat last night, people hate "manipulated" markets -- myself very much included. The idea the Fed is rescuing Europe -- by providing liquidity the ECB refuses to make available -- is "loathsome," as Macke says.
But that doesn't mean the market can't keep rallying.
To Macke, "we still have structurally the ingredients for a bull market" with the professionals under-invested or net short and retail investors largely on the sidelines.
"There's a lot to hate about what the economy and Fed have been doing since at least 2009; but you can't stay short stocks forever because of what 'should' happen," he says. "The higher we go -- if we hold these gains...it's going to get hideous if you're hugely short."
Along with easy money, fund managers' fear of underperforming their benchmarks and their peers -- a.k.a. "performance anxiety" -- are the two most powerful forces on Wall Street.
As year end is approaching, many market participants are beginning to leave the market to draw an end to this year's work. Market manipulators have covered most of the short positions. The net profit is significant and they outperform the majority of market participants with their selling strategy starting from market peak in the year. Some individual investors are able to track market manipulators and sell the way down to recent bottom. However, the majority of individual investors are too late to follow the selling strategy. And many have sold at the bottom. Institutional investors also suffer significant loss after the market sell-offs. Fortunately, investors remain calm despite repeated sell-offs. Thus the pressure to liquidate portfolio to satisfy customer redemption is not severe.
Market participants remain cautious that market manipulators may create more market sell-offs. Therefore investors are still holding large amount of cash on hand. Many market participants have missed the opportunity to replenish the portfolio at the bottom as market opened sharply higher at the beginning of week from last week's recent bottom. The pessimistic investor sentiment in the market weaken the desire to purchase stocks but to wait for further decline from previous bottom. However there are no panic sellers to fulfill the desire to drive market further down. And a wave of buying triggers short covering from market manipulators and day traders to realize profit from earlier short selling.
Market manipulators and institutional investors are preparing for the year end vacation. However day traders and individual investors remain active on hope to recover some of the loss incurred from the market sell-offs in the past months.
It appears that there is strong support for market at recent bottom. However, many investors are still thin in portfolio and have plenty of cash to wait for market drop. On the other hand, holders of stock are not willing to dump at this level. Hot capital in the market will continue to create market turbulence which is also opportunity for speculators.
Bush tax cuts: The real endgame
Congress has a way of waiting to the very last minute to resolve big issues, so December is usually a busy month on Capitol Hill. This year will be no exception.
This December, for example, lawmakers will have to decide, among other things, whether to extend the payroll tax cut, long-term unemployment benefits, the Medicare "doc fix," Alternative Minimum Tax relief and a bevy of business tax breaks.
But that list -- worth less than $1 trillion -- will pale in comparison to the $5 trillion of fiscal decisions likely to be left for a lame-duck Congress during the seven weeks between the Nov. 6 election and New Year's Eve.
Bush-era tax cuts: If Congress does nothing, the 2001, 2003 and 2006 tax cuts will expire at the end of December 2012.
If they do expire, most Americans' tax bills would go up and the surge of additional revenue into federal coffers would greatly improve the deficit picture over the next decade.
"I expect a go-big, $3 trillion to $4 trillion deficit reduction plan," said long-term budget expert Stan Collender.
As with most presidential budget proposals, however, Congress won't adopt it in whole, or even necessarily in part.
Black Friday: Record $52.4 billion spent, according to NRF
Earlier than ever store openings and steep discounts helped retailers notch record sales this Black Friday weekend, according to early reports.
Total spending over the four-day weekend following Thanksgiving reached a record $52.4 billion, up 16% from $45 billion last year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation released Sunday.
Cyber Monday could also notch a new record, according to online tracking firm ComScore. Online sales for 2011 are projected to hit $1.2 billion, up from $1 billion last year, Andrew Lipsman, ComScore's industry analyst, said.
While Black Friday marks the unofficial start of the holiday season, it is still too early to say whether this consumer spending momentum will continue until Christmas, noted NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis.
Black Friday isn't the only game in town
"There are hundreds of promotions going on this time of year," says Steve Uline, head of marketing for Gander. "We needed to do something a little bit different."
"Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving, in the 1960s became known as the point when merchants turn a profit or operate "in the black." Later, retailers began marketing it as the start of the holiday shopping season with earlier store hours and deep discounts of up to 70 percent off.
It's since become the busiest shopping day of the year. This past weekend, "Black Friday" sales were $11.4 billion, up 7 percent, or nearly $1 billion from the same day last year, according to a report by ShopperTrak, which gathers data from 25,000 outlets across the country. It was the largest amount ever spent on that day.
Marketers are hoping to strike gold again. Many are doing so by appealing to Americans who've become disenchanted with big business and commercialism.
The Rising Cost of Free Shipping
Shoppers may have more incentive to buy online this year: the sales are as big as -- if not better than -- in-store offers and many retailers are offering free shipping. The catch, say experts: Shoppers have to spend a lot more.
A growing number of sites automatically offer free shipping on orders of a certain amount, no coupon code required, Knowles says. In the past year, JC Penney, Macy's, L.L. Bean, Gap and Nordstrom all moved to that model. Such offers let shoppers grab free shipping and still use a coupon code (or two) to further reduce their total.
Annual compensation could fall 30 percent at Wall St firms
Annual compensation for employees at big Wall Street firms could fall 27-30 percent from a year earlier to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a compensation study conducted by the Options Group.
Bonuses, which constitute a substantial part of many finance workers' pay, are on track to decline 35-40 percent, on average, according to the forecast by Options Group, an executive search and consulting firm, the Journal said.
How the Fed Rescue Benefited Banks
A report by Bloomberg News offers a new way of quantifying the Federal Reserve's vast efforts to save financial companies from collapse during the crisis that peaked in 2008.
The central bank provided emergency loans, asset purchases and other aid totaling roughly $7.8 trillion during a two-year period ending in March 2009, easily the largest component of the government efforts to bulwark the financial system.
In an article in the January issue of Bloomberg Markets, published online Sunday night, Bloomberg offers an estimate that the aid allowed financial companies to book profits of roughly $13 billion during that period, largely by borrowing from the Fed at low interest rates and then using the money to make loans and investments with higher rates of return.
The estimate may well overstate the direct value of the Fed's loans, as banks used much of the money for short-term purposes that tend to have lower profit margins. Importantly, however, it also greatly understates the broader value of the loans: The money helped many recipients to survive.
Citigroup is a case in point. Bloomberg estimates that the Fed's loans increased the bank's profits by $1.8 billion. The real story, of course, is that government help saved the troubled bank from collapse.
Top central banks move to avoid global liquidity crunch
Central banks from the world's leading developed economies said on Wednesday they will take coordinated steps to prevent a lack of liquidity in the global financial system, as the euro zone attempts to find a way to stem its debt crisis.
The surprise coordinated move by central banks was aimed at preventing global financial markets from coming under pressure that could potentially lead to a seizing up of credit.
"The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity," the banks said in typically stilted language.
Don’t Hate the Game and Don’t Call It a “Sucker’s Rally”
A day after coordinated central bank action sent financial markets screaming higher, Thursday was shaping up as a day of rest and reflection -- and a little bit of giveback.
But don't call the gains this week (remember, Monday was a big up day too) a "sucker's rally", says my Breakout colleague Jeff Macke.
"You can't describe it as 'sucker's rally' because we had negative numbers today," Macke says. "Data for the whole week has just crushed...been so good, so positive," including a big jump in consumer confidence, a strong ADP employment report, a very positive Chicago PMI report, as well as today's generally solid November same-store sales data.
Of course, housing data remains punk and third-quarter productivity was revised down but the data provide "strong evidence the American economy, like it or not, is improving," Macke says.
"Like it or not" may be the operative phrase when it comes to the rally itself. As I mentioned in our Twitter-chat last night, people hate "manipulated" markets -- myself very much included. The idea the Fed is rescuing Europe -- by providing liquidity the ECB refuses to make available -- is "loathsome," as Macke says.
But that doesn't mean the market can't keep rallying.
To Macke, "we still have structurally the ingredients for a bull market" with the professionals under-invested or net short and retail investors largely on the sidelines.
"There's a lot to hate about what the economy and Fed have been doing since at least 2009; but you can't stay short stocks forever because of what 'should' happen," he says. "The higher we go -- if we hold these gains...it's going to get hideous if you're hugely short."
Along with easy money, fund managers' fear of underperforming their benchmarks and their peers -- a.k.a. "performance anxiety" -- are the two most powerful forces on Wall Street.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Saturday, November 26, 2011
NASA launches $2.5 billion rover to Red Planet
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — NASA has launched its next Mars rover, kicking off a long-awaited mission to investigate whether the Red Planet could ever have hosted microbial life.
The car-size Curiosity rover blasted off atop its Atlas 5 rocket at 10:02 a.m. ET Saturday, streaking into a cloudy sky above Cape Canaveral Air Force Station here. The huge robot's next stop is Mars, though the 354-million-mile (570-million-kilometer) journey will take eight and a half months.
Joy Crisp a deputy project scientist for the rover at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., called the liftoff "spectacular."
"This feels great," she said as she watched the rocket lift off from Cape Canaveral.
Pamela Conrad, deputy principal investigator for the mission at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., said, "Every milestone feels like such a relief. It's a beautiful day. The sun's out, and all these people came out to watch."
The work Curiosity does when it finally arrives should revolutionize our understanding of the Red Planet and pave the way for future efforts to hunt for potential Martian life, researchers said.
"It is absolutely a feat of engineering, and it will bring science like nobody's ever expected," Doug McCuistion, head of NASA's Mars exploration program, said of Curiosity. "I can't even imagine the discoveries that we're going to come up with."
Long road to launch
Curiosity's cruise to Mars may be less challenging than its long and bumpy trek to the launch pad, which took nearly a decade.
NASA began planning Curiosity's mission — which is officially known as the Mars Science Laboratory, or MSL — back in 2003. The rover was originally scheduled to blast off in 2009, but it wasn't ready in time.
Launch windows for Mars-bound spacecraft are based on favorable alignments between Earth and the Red Planet, and they open up just once every two years. So the MSL team had to wait until 2011.
That two-year slip helped boost the mission's overall cost by 56 percent, to its current $2.5 billion. But Saturday's successful launch likely chased away a lot of the bad feelings still lingering after the delay and the cost overruns.
"I think you could visibly see the team morale improve — the team grinned more, the team smiled more — as the rover and the vehicle came closer, and more and more together here when we were at Kennedy [Space Center]" preparing for liftoff, MSL project manager Pete Theisinger of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said a few days before launch.
A rover behemoth
Curiosity is a beast of a rover. Weighing in at 1 ton, it's five times more massive than either of the last two rovers NASA sent to Mars, the golf-cart-size twins Spirit and Opportunity, which landed in 2004 to search for signs of past water activity.
While Spirit and Opportunity each carried five science instruments, Curiosity sports 10, including a rock-zapping laser and equipment designed to identify organic compounds — carbon-based molecules that are the building blocks of life as we know it.
Some of these instruments sit at the end of Curiosity's five-jointed, 7-foot-long (2.1-meter) robotic arm, which by itself is nearly half as heavy as Spirit or Opportunity.
The arm also wields a 2-inch (5-centimeter) drill, allowing Curiosity to take samples from deep inside Martian rocks. No previous Red Planet rover has been able to do this, researchers say.
"We have an incredible rover," said MSL deputy project scientist Ashwin Vasavada of JPL. "It's the biggest and most capable scientific explorer we've ever sent to the surface of another planet."
Curiosity is due to arrive at Mars in early August 2012, touching down in a 100-mile-wide (160-km) crater called Gale.
While the rover's launch was dramatic, its landing will be one for the record books, if all goes well. A rocket-powered sky crane will lower the huge robot down on cables — a maneuver never tried before in the history of planetary exploration.
A giant mound of sediment rises 3 miles (5 kilometers) into the Martian air from Gale Crater's center. The layers in this mountain appear to preserve about 1 billion years of Martian history. Curiosity will study these different layers, gaining an in-depth understanding of past and present Martian environments and their potential to harbor life.
Life as we know it depends on liquid water. So the rover will likely spend a lot of time poking around near the mound's base, where Mars-orbiting spacecraft have spotted minerals that form in the presence of water, such as clays and sulfates.
"Going layer by layer, we can do the main goal of this mission, which is to search for habitable environments, " Vasavada said. "Were any of those time periods in early Mars history time periods that could have supported microbial life?"
If Curiosity climbs higher, its observations could shed light on Mars' shift from relatively warm and wet long ago to cold, dry and dusty today, researchers said.
"We want to understand those transitions, so that's why we're headed there [to Gale]," said Bethany Ehlmann of JPL and Caltech in Pasadena.
Setting the stage for life detection
Curiosity isn't designed to search for Martian life. In fact, if the red dirt of Gale Crater does harbor microbes, the rover will almost certainly drive right over them unawares.
But MSL is a key bridge to future efforts that could actively hunt down possible Martian life forms, researchers said. Curiosity's work should help later missions determine where — and when — to look.
"We don't really detect life per se," Vasavada said. "We set the stage for that life detection by figuring out which time periods in early Mars history were the most likely to have supported life and even preserved evidence of that for us today."
Friday, November 25, 2011
Market Participants Fighting For Direction
Equity stock market continues to decline for the week. Despite continuous selling pressure, market participants do not enter into panic selling as most of them are already thin in portfolio but rich on cash holding. Trading volume remains relatively low and a large portion is changing on the hands of day traders and speculators. Market manipulators maintain short positions and suppress rebound of market. Day traders and speculators are watching closely on market trend and any sign of short covering.
Market falls back to a level close to previous bottom. A lot of market participants are waiting for the time to replenish the portfolio if market exhibits sign of support after the extended decline. Currently market sentiment is largely pessimistic. But market participants are also anxious about excessive cash holding which gives minimal return on investment. Therefore the behaviour of market participants are diverse and direction of market movement is highly sensitive to market events.
Equity stocks may exhibit random fluctuation and there are both sellers and buyers on speculation. There is probability that market may drop below previous bottom and dive further on the favor of market manipulators. On the other hands, sideline cash buying and portfolio replenishment may give support to market.
Market participants should remain cautious and follow closely on market development until a clear direction emerges.
"Disastrous" bond sale shakes confidence in Germany
A "disastrous" German bond sale on Wednesday sparked fears that Europe's debt crisis was starting to threaten even Berlin, with the leaders of the euro zone's two biggest economies still at odds over a longer-term structural solution.
The borrowing costs of almost all euro zone states, even those previously seen as safe such as France, Austria and the Netherlands, spiked in the last two weeks as panicky investors dumped paper no longer seen as risk-free.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso unveiled proposals for much more intrusive oversight of euro zone countries' budgets and efforts to meet macroeconomic targets, and set out the options for introducing common euro zone bonds.
"I welcome Barroso's proposals, which are a real step forward on many points," Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees De Jager said in a statement. "It will, however, still be an uphill battle, for there are those who resist further discipline.
"Eurobonds are not a magic solution to the current crisis and could even worsen it," he said. "We have to do first things first, and that means establishing strict supervision and enforcement of budget discipline."
IPOs stoke San Francisco housing market
Adam Holm has been looking to sell his three-bedroom Victorian house in San Francisco's Potrero Hill neighborhood all year, but he needs one thing to happen first: gaming-company Zynga's initial public offering.
The IPO-driven real estate strategy is suddenly a common one in San Francisco as companies including Zynga and the review service Yelp prepare for public offerings. With the rise of secondary share markets that enable some employees of pre-public companies such as Facebook and Twitter to cash out, moreover, even the promise of an IPO is helping to drive residential real estate activity.
San Francisco had already enjoyed a healthier housing market than most places. But the competitive bidding in some city neighborhoods recently has taken real estate professionals by surprise, with prices up more than 15 percent from last year in some areas.
San Francisco's southern neighborhoods are benefiting not just from the suddenly rich, but also from start-ups increasingly locating in the city rather than suburban Silicon Valley. Employees who like to live near work will drive up residential prices in nearby neighborhoods, the theory goes.
The renewed strength in the local housing market has caught even some who work in real estate by surprise. Stephen Rossi, who heads business-services marketing at Trulia, wanted to move out of his SOMA condo and was planning to rent it out, thinking he couldn't sell if for the roughly $760,000 he paid back in 2009.
But when a neighbor with an identical unit across the hall got multiple offers on his place and sold it in October for $800,000 to an employee at a cloud-based software company, Rossi had second thoughts. Rossi sold his condo two weeks ago to a bidder who had lost out on his neighbor's home, also for $800,000, and had backup bids of his own.
German bonds fall; stocks, euro vulnerable
German government bond yields hit their highest in nearly a month and world stocks held near 7-week lows Thursday, a day after a weak debt sale in Berlin fanned fears the euro zone debt crisis is starting to threaten its biggest > falling 115 ticks on the day to 134.66, the lowest since October 31.
"The Bund auction got people wondering about how big German debt is and it coincided with (European Commission President Jose Manuel) Barroso talking about euro bonds.
Market falls back to a level close to previous bottom. A lot of market participants are waiting for the time to replenish the portfolio if market exhibits sign of support after the extended decline. Currently market sentiment is largely pessimistic. But market participants are also anxious about excessive cash holding which gives minimal return on investment. Therefore the behaviour of market participants are diverse and direction of market movement is highly sensitive to market events.
Equity stocks may exhibit random fluctuation and there are both sellers and buyers on speculation. There is probability that market may drop below previous bottom and dive further on the favor of market manipulators. On the other hands, sideline cash buying and portfolio replenishment may give support to market.
Market participants should remain cautious and follow closely on market development until a clear direction emerges.
"Disastrous" bond sale shakes confidence in Germany
A "disastrous" German bond sale on Wednesday sparked fears that Europe's debt crisis was starting to threaten even Berlin, with the leaders of the euro zone's two biggest economies still at odds over a longer-term structural solution.
The borrowing costs of almost all euro zone states, even those previously seen as safe such as France, Austria and the Netherlands, spiked in the last two weeks as panicky investors dumped paper no longer seen as risk-free.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso unveiled proposals for much more intrusive oversight of euro zone countries' budgets and efforts to meet macroeconomic targets, and set out the options for introducing common euro zone bonds.
"I welcome Barroso's proposals, which are a real step forward on many points," Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees De Jager said in a statement. "It will, however, still be an uphill battle, for there are those who resist further discipline.
"Eurobonds are not a magic solution to the current crisis and could even worsen it," he said. "We have to do first things first, and that means establishing strict supervision and enforcement of budget discipline."
IPOs stoke San Francisco housing market
Adam Holm has been looking to sell his three-bedroom Victorian house in San Francisco's Potrero Hill neighborhood all year, but he needs one thing to happen first: gaming-company Zynga's initial public offering.
The IPO-driven real estate strategy is suddenly a common one in San Francisco as companies including Zynga and the review service Yelp prepare for public offerings. With the rise of secondary share markets that enable some employees of pre-public companies such as Facebook and Twitter to cash out, moreover, even the promise of an IPO is helping to drive residential real estate activity.
San Francisco had already enjoyed a healthier housing market than most places. But the competitive bidding in some city neighborhoods recently has taken real estate professionals by surprise, with prices up more than 15 percent from last year in some areas.
San Francisco's southern neighborhoods are benefiting not just from the suddenly rich, but also from start-ups increasingly locating in the city rather than suburban Silicon Valley. Employees who like to live near work will drive up residential prices in nearby neighborhoods, the theory goes.
The renewed strength in the local housing market has caught even some who work in real estate by surprise. Stephen Rossi, who heads business-services marketing at Trulia, wanted to move out of his SOMA condo and was planning to rent it out, thinking he couldn't sell if for the roughly $760,000 he paid back in 2009.
But when a neighbor with an identical unit across the hall got multiple offers on his place and sold it in October for $800,000 to an employee at a cloud-based software company, Rossi had second thoughts. Rossi sold his condo two weeks ago to a bidder who had lost out on his neighbor's home, also for $800,000, and had backup bids of his own.
German bonds fall; stocks, euro vulnerable
German government bond yields hit their highest in nearly a month and world stocks held near 7-week lows Thursday, a day after a weak debt sale in Berlin fanned fears the euro zone debt crisis is starting to threaten its biggest > falling 115 ticks on the day to 134.66, the lowest since October 31.
"The Bund auction got people wondering about how big German debt is and it coincided with (European Commission President Jose Manuel) Barroso talking about euro bonds.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
裸女哄動中環
【東方日報】妙齡女子在中環街頭打人後赤裸遊街。一名女子昨傍晚在人來人往的皇后大道中等人期間，突襲派傳單的女子，被保安員制止後情緒失控當眾表演脫衣騷。本報記者現場直擊奇女子「剝光豬」遊街十分鐘，期間更走入一間名錶店參觀，逾百市民駐足「呆看」，無不嘩然。她在街頭步行約二百米後，卒被帶上警車送院。
裸女衝出錶店，男警緊拉著她的手。
與父傾手機突發狂打途人
大鬧中環的裸女姓黎（廿三歲），昨傍晚六時許站在娛樂行門外用手機與父親聊天時，突然情緒激動，將電話大力扔落地，更衝向身旁一名派傳單女子，將她的頭推向牆邊。遇襲女子大聲呼救，驚動附近大廈保安員趕至制止及報警。黎女聽到「報警」二字後面色大變，隨即將上衣、牛仔褲、胸圍、內褲及鞋襪逐一脫光，連同手袋丟在路旁。
裸女跑出馬路，人車讓路。
裸女站在街頭，以手遮掩胸部。
名店賞錶
黎女一絲不掛向戲院里方向漫步，當時正值下班時間，大批途人駐足觀看，行經的車輛更紛紛慢駛。她步行近二百米後走進一間錶行，大模廝樣在店內四處走動看錶，店員被不速之客嚇得手足無措，慌忙跑出店外求救。剛巧一名軍裝男警巡經入內協助，惟他不敢觸碰黎女身體，只好要求她留在店內，但黎女不理勸喻衝出街外，男警只好緊隨其後拉著她的手，又脫下警帽為她遮蔽下體。「係唔係拍緊戲？我簡直唔相信我對眼﹗」圍觀市民更取出手機拍攝。
途人借衣
喝水回氣
慈父救女
此時，黎女父親趕至，拾起衣物後急問途人：「我係個女仔嘅爸爸，知唔知佢去咗邊呀？」他經熱心途人指示尋獲女兒，當時黎女正在警員陪同下步往警車，一名女途人脫下外套給她蔽體。黎父最後抱女兒上警車送院檢驗。
警車帶走
裸女衝出錶店，男警緊拉著她的手。
與父傾手機突發狂打途人
大鬧中環的裸女姓黎（廿三歲），昨傍晚六時許站在娛樂行門外用手機與父親聊天時，突然情緒激動，將電話大力扔落地，更衝向身旁一名派傳單女子，將她的頭推向牆邊。遇襲女子大聲呼救，驚動附近大廈保安員趕至制止及報警。黎女聽到「報警」二字後面色大變，隨即將上衣、牛仔褲、胸圍、內褲及鞋襪逐一脫光，連同手袋丟在路旁。
裸女跑出馬路，人車讓路。
裸女站在街頭，以手遮掩胸部。
名店賞錶
黎女一絲不掛向戲院里方向漫步，當時正值下班時間，大批途人駐足觀看，行經的車輛更紛紛慢駛。她步行近二百米後走進一間錶行，大模廝樣在店內四處走動看錶，店員被不速之客嚇得手足無措，慌忙跑出店外求救。剛巧一名軍裝男警巡經入內協助，惟他不敢觸碰黎女身體，只好要求她留在店內，但黎女不理勸喻衝出街外，男警只好緊隨其後拉著她的手，又脫下警帽為她遮蔽下體。「係唔係拍緊戲？我簡直唔相信我對眼﹗」圍觀市民更取出手機拍攝。
途人借衣
喝水回氣
慈父救女
此時，黎女父親趕至，拾起衣物後急問途人：「我係個女仔嘅爸爸，知唔知佢去咗邊呀？」他經熱心途人指示尋獲女兒，當時黎女正在警員陪同下步往警車，一名女途人脫下外套給她蔽體。黎父最後抱女兒上警車送院檢驗。
警車帶走
蘋果日報 - 20111124 - 港台忽然改革 熄烽煙叮走吳志森 周融 冇晒批判聲音
【蘋果日報】 AO廣播處長鄧忍光上場不足三個月，港台便即「改革」兩個早晚時段的時事烽煙節目。經常批評政府的吳志森、常為政府護航的周融齊被「叮走」。前日接獲「大信封」的吳志森對港台「忽然改革」感愕然，難理解為何突然遭撤換。撐港台運動成員毛孟靜批評港台自廢武功，此番換人將令烽煙節目「冇晒批判聲音」。
記者：姚國雄 盧文烈
港台兩個烽煙節目《千禧年代》、《自由風自由 Phone》將透過「換人」改革。副廣播處長戴健文前日通知節目主持周融和吳志森，將於明年起與二人終止合約，二人「任期」至下月底，而每周主持《自》一至兩次的梁旭明、黃英琦、劉佩瓊同樣「無得留低」。兩節目明年起分別由港台公務員梁家永和節目監製陳燕萍唱獨腳戲，會繼續接聽聽眾電話。
港台否認受壓換人
近年「被正名」為政府部門的港台突然換人，勢令人懷疑政府或港台高層有心「整治」。戴健文回應指，十分明白公眾對此會有猜疑，但否認受壓下換人：「兩個節目已有逾十年冇變，好多節目都會變，點解呢兩個節目唔可以改變？」他保證兩節目的公眾發言時間不會減少。
港台發言人稱，兩節目名稱及時間維持不變，由一人主持可讓聽眾有更多時間發表意見，以及提供資料讓聽眾掌握時事新聞背景，希望做到聲音多元，發言人否認港台今次乘機大清洗，強調節目改革不會削弱言論自由的空間。不過，港台節目製作人員工會主席麥麗貞擔心，日後只由一人擔綱，會影響節目多元性，但現無證據顯示換人與政府或高層施壓有關。
吳志森擔心節目「去政治化」
吳志森形容換人安排「幾突然，冇先兆」。他自問稱職、有支持者、收聽率亦算高：「如果係因為我成日批評政府而要換走我，我覺得好悲哀。我唔願意相信呢個係事實......;節目要有改革，但係咪要換走一個聽眾熟悉主持人嚟改革呢？」他擔心日後兩個節目會「去政治化」減少批判。
他指，港台並無通知他停止主持諷刺時弊的電視節目《頭條新聞》，還已預約他明年的拍攝檔期：「但一切無保證，今日可以通知你聽日唔使你做。」另一主持周融則不欲對節目改革多作回應，稱明白港台要改革：「咁天下無不散之筵席嘛。」
曾擔任港台烽煙節目主持的公民黨毛孟靜批評，港台此舉是自毀長城兼自廢武功。她指一個出色的烽煙節目，除要反映民意，更要帶領民意，港台突然撤換主持人，將會令節目「冇晒批判嘅聲音」。她指無論今次決定是否由鄧忍光親自拍板，都不能接受。她質疑港台是想藉換主持消除反對政府的聲音。
Monday, November 21, 2011
內地金絲楠木炒成了天價 一根可換一棟樓
內地繼紫壇木、黃花梨木等每噸逾百萬元（人民幣．下同）的木材被炒高後，從前是帝皇專用的金絲楠木亦成為追捧目標，一根可換一棟樓；不少炒家四處尋找金絲楠木，挖河刨樹根，更有炒家買下古宅，拆掉舊柱尋寶。
金絲楠木多出現在 500歲的楨楠當中，四川邛崍是偵楠產地，近日到當地尋木的人增加，估計有 10支淘木隊、近 100人。當地人楊林在深圳打工近 10年後，也加入「淘木熱」，聘請 20多人進山尋木。他表示，近日金絲楠木的價格水漲船高，一根長兩米的木料能賣到十多萬元，金絲楠木家具更是一日一個價，吸引不少人囤積。
過去，木材都是以水利從四川運到北京，需時四年至十多年，不少木材可能在山泥傾瀉中被埋，淘木人便在山中挖河、刨樹根，希望找到萬年不朽的木材。
尋木要靠運氣，不少買家向古宅埋手，雖然明、清時規定民間私藏金絲楠木可以處斬，但不少當地人都冒生命危險，以金絲楠木作為蘚，保留下來，成為現在現成金絲楠木的來源。
邛崍一棟古宅內，楊林發現有六根柱是楨楠老料，估計總共可賣 600萬元，他向劉姓女屋主提出以一棟兩層高樓房再加 500萬元，但劉女仍不為所動，並稱此前有人出價千萬也被她拒絕。她稱，這屋及湯柱已經五代相傳，當年祖先冒死留著金絲楠木，無論出多少錢她都不會賣掉。
由於在楨楠中只有 2%會發現金絲楠木，有北京收購商高價收購古宅後，才發現噥是與金絲楠木極類似、但極易腐的潤楠，損失慘重。
金絲楠木是中國特有的珍貴木材，分擎在四川、貴州、等地、海拔 1,000至 1,500米亞熱帶地區的山谷、山窪及河旁，生長緩慢，但質地堅硬、百蟲不侵，且有千年不腐萬年不朽之說；有獨特光澤，不上漆都會越用越亮，令它成為明、清時皇家專用木材。
明朝時若民間進貢一顆金絲楠木即能陞官，清朝時若民間私藏金絲楠木，則隨時被入罪甚至殺頭。時至現代，重要書籍、紀念品以金絲楠木做盒， 2005年胡錦濤送給宋楚瑜的宋家族譜就是金絲楠木做的書函箱。
Sunday, November 20, 2011
YouTube Video On Cosmology - Q&A With Neil deGrasse Tyson
Tyson hosted the casual conversation about stars, planets, the universe, and beyond.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Hot Capital On Market Speculation
Market sees another sell-off in the week. But the rebound is much weaker than previous sell-offs. Market manipulators return to market to participate in the selling, but less aggressively and in increments rather than continuous selling. The amount of hot capital flowing around the market is large and market participants have different speculation. But the common factor to drive hot capital into the market is low return of investment in money market and accumulation of personal wealth from economic activities.
Market manipulators adjust the strategy to match with current market dynamics. The main strategy remains selling. However, instead of a massive selling to create panic in the market, market manipulators are selling repeatedly in smaller increments to ensure that day traders and speculators are following to create a trend to push down market for extended period of time to provide enough spread to take profit. As a result, market remains depressed for several days and there is still no short covering rebound yet.
Market participants are watching closely on the next move of market manipulators who make the largest profit while others are mostly suffering loss from the market sell-offs. Although many days traders and speculators are following closely on the selling, market manipulators are more cautious than before and open far less positions than before. As year end is approaching, it would be better to protect the profit and be less aggressive. On the other hand, market participants are looking to catch up and become more aggressive.
It appears that there may be headwind in the market as the risk appetite of investors are increasing and the flow of hot capital creates turbulance in asset markets.
Hanging on to Home, Even After a Fall
BERNIE AND JOYCE MURPHY are still convinced that they did everything right when they bought their home. And by all indications, they did.
Four years ago, the couple, who have been married 41 years, moved from a small town in Ohio to Stallings, N.C., just outside Charlotte. Mr. Murphy, 65, was retiring and they wanted to be near one of their sons and his family. They saved up, put 5 percent down on a $160,000 two-story townhome, got themselves a plain-vanilla 30-year mortgage and settled into a new life at the end of a quiet street. A small creek runs through the tree-lined development, where model homes have names like Riverbirch and Magnolia.
So what is it that is keeping the Murphys from walking away? Partly it is the morality issue: they promised to pay and they are able to pay, though not without some adjustments to their future financial plans. They also noted that they were not in the same dire straits as others in their neighborhood who walked away, including a young family of four that left in the dead of night some months ago. Mr. Murphy receives monthly pension payments after 22 years in state government in Ohio. He also gets Social Security benefits from 17 years of work at a private college, though those are reduced by Internal Revenue Service rules because of his pension.
“Don’t Get Too Bearish”: 5 Keys to the Market’s Next Move
After a third quarter of wild swings and a big rally in October, the stock market heads into the home stretch virtually unchanged for 2011.
Four key issues hold the key to whether 2011 ends up being the first down year since 2008 or whether the Santa Claus rally comes to town, according to Greg Zuckerman of The Wall Street Journal:
The Core of Europe: Now that Europe's debt crisis has moved from the "periphery", markets will take their cues from interest rates in Italy and France.
It's the Economy, Stupid: A big reason for the big rally in October was better-than-expected U.S. economic data. Many money managers were braced for an imminent "double-dip" and the positive surprises on GDP, employment, retail sales and other metrics helped account for the S&P's nearly 11% rise last month.
China's Landing: Whether China's economy has a 'hard' or 'soft' landing is the critical question on many investors' minds. As the world's second-largest economy and a major importer of myriad commodities, the outcome will have a major impact on financial markets worldwide.
As of Oct. 30, the average hedge fund was down nearly 3% for the year and underperforming the S&P 500, according to Hennessee Group.
Considering the fees being charged by hedge funds and the "reputational risk" of lagging mutual funds, Zuckerman notes underperforming money managers may be tempted to "chase" the market if it exhibits any signs of strength.
As a result, Zuckerman's conclusion is that investors should "not get too bearish" before year-end, even if there are plenty of things to worry about these days.
How to steal like Wall Street
On Wall Street, you gamble. You gamble big. But you gamble with other people’s money.
Borrow as much as you can. If it doesn’t work out, too bad — for someone else. Heads you win, tails they lose.
But reflect that the top 10 people at Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers walked away with nearly $1 billion before those banks collapsed. A billion dollars. That money went to yachts and mansions and mink coats. The people who ran subprime firms like Countrywide Financial walked away with fortunes.
Reflect, too, that the bonus bonanza has been back on Wall Street for at least two years now.
Which brings us to “Occupy Wall Street,” and the protest movement.
America’s bankruptcy laws are crazy. You can shelter all sorts of money in things like 401(k) plans and still walk away. By the standards of the real, “moral” economy they are unconscionable.
Tackling Income Inequality
The Occupy Wall Street protesters have focused attention on rising income inequality in the United States, and they are right to do so.
Income and wealth disparities have reached levels not seen in the United States since the Roaring Twenties. And the concentration of income and wealth contributed to the speculative excesses that brought on the 2008 financial crisis (see Robert Reich's "Aftershock" and Raghuram Rajan's "Fault Lines").
According to a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office, rising income inequality is a long-term trend that began in the late 1970s and strengthened during the last two decades.
The top 1 percent's share of national income has also been rising in most other advanced industrial countries, but it is by far the largest and has grown the most in the United States (see Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson's "Winner-Take-All Politics").
The top 0.1 percent earns about half of all capital gains, and such gains account for about 60 percent of the income of the top 400 taxpayers.
Large cuts in federal tax rates on capital and business income have been very beneficial to the top 1 percent over time.
As a result of these changes, along with President Bush's across-the-board cuts in income tax rates, federal taxes as a share of household income fell for the top 1 percent. Over all, the Bush tax cuts were the largest -- not only in dollar terms but also as a percentage of income -- for high-income households and increased the concentration of after-tax income at the top. Far from curbing escalating inequality, the Bush tax cuts exacerbated the problem.
A credible plan to reduce the long-run deficit requires a significant increase in revenue. Polls indicate that the majority of Americans, like the Wall Street protesters, believe that higher taxes on the rich are warranted both to reduce the deficit and to contain mounting inequality.
Restoring the top income tax rates and capital gains and dividends tax rates to their levels under President Clinton, as President Obama has repeatedly proposed, would be useful first steps. Taxing some carried interest as ordinary income would make the tax system more efficient and curtail outsize compensation in the financial sector. Adding a progressive consumption tax would augment revenue while encouraging saving and discouraging spending on luxury goods, both by the very rich and by those down the income ladder struggling to keep up.
The majority of Americans, like the Wall Street protesters, also believe the corporate tax rate should be raised.
Raising tax rates on capital gains and dividends to the levels under President Clinton would curb the growth of income for the top 1 percent and could finance a substantial cut in the corporate tax rate that would bolster wages and job opportunities for American workers.
U.S. Economy Growing at Fastest Pace of the Year
The U.S. economy may end 2011 growing at its fastest clip in 18 months as analysts increase their forecasts for the fourth quarter just a few months after a slowdown raised concern among investors.
Behind the revised fourth quarter forecasts: Consumers have not cut back on spending even with the turmoil in world financial markets, putting pressure on companies to rebuild inventories they ran down because of concerns about Europe.
Housing construction permits climbed last month to their highest level since March 2010, according to Commerce Department data, as the near record-low mortgage rates lured some buyers into the market.
The future pace of consumer spending ultimately will be decided by the growth of household income, which in turn is tied to the health of the job market.
Market manipulators adjust the strategy to match with current market dynamics. The main strategy remains selling. However, instead of a massive selling to create panic in the market, market manipulators are selling repeatedly in smaller increments to ensure that day traders and speculators are following to create a trend to push down market for extended period of time to provide enough spread to take profit. As a result, market remains depressed for several days and there is still no short covering rebound yet.
Market participants are watching closely on the next move of market manipulators who make the largest profit while others are mostly suffering loss from the market sell-offs. Although many days traders and speculators are following closely on the selling, market manipulators are more cautious than before and open far less positions than before. As year end is approaching, it would be better to protect the profit and be less aggressive. On the other hand, market participants are looking to catch up and become more aggressive.
It appears that there may be headwind in the market as the risk appetite of investors are increasing and the flow of hot capital creates turbulance in asset markets.
Hanging on to Home, Even After a Fall
BERNIE AND JOYCE MURPHY are still convinced that they did everything right when they bought their home. And by all indications, they did.
Four years ago, the couple, who have been married 41 years, moved from a small town in Ohio to Stallings, N.C., just outside Charlotte. Mr. Murphy, 65, was retiring and they wanted to be near one of their sons and his family. They saved up, put 5 percent down on a $160,000 two-story townhome, got themselves a plain-vanilla 30-year mortgage and settled into a new life at the end of a quiet street. A small creek runs through the tree-lined development, where model homes have names like Riverbirch and Magnolia.
So what is it that is keeping the Murphys from walking away? Partly it is the morality issue: they promised to pay and they are able to pay, though not without some adjustments to their future financial plans. They also noted that they were not in the same dire straits as others in their neighborhood who walked away, including a young family of four that left in the dead of night some months ago. Mr. Murphy receives monthly pension payments after 22 years in state government in Ohio. He also gets Social Security benefits from 17 years of work at a private college, though those are reduced by Internal Revenue Service rules because of his pension.
“Don’t Get Too Bearish”: 5 Keys to the Market’s Next Move
After a third quarter of wild swings and a big rally in October, the stock market heads into the home stretch virtually unchanged for 2011.
Four key issues hold the key to whether 2011 ends up being the first down year since 2008 or whether the Santa Claus rally comes to town, according to Greg Zuckerman of The Wall Street Journal:
The Core of Europe: Now that Europe's debt crisis has moved from the "periphery", markets will take their cues from interest rates in Italy and France.
It's the Economy, Stupid: A big reason for the big rally in October was better-than-expected U.S. economic data. Many money managers were braced for an imminent "double-dip" and the positive surprises on GDP, employment, retail sales and other metrics helped account for the S&P's nearly 11% rise last month.
China's Landing: Whether China's economy has a 'hard' or 'soft' landing is the critical question on many investors' minds. As the world's second-largest economy and a major importer of myriad commodities, the outcome will have a major impact on financial markets worldwide.
As of Oct. 30, the average hedge fund was down nearly 3% for the year and underperforming the S&P 500, according to Hennessee Group.
Considering the fees being charged by hedge funds and the "reputational risk" of lagging mutual funds, Zuckerman notes underperforming money managers may be tempted to "chase" the market if it exhibits any signs of strength.
As a result, Zuckerman's conclusion is that investors should "not get too bearish" before year-end, even if there are plenty of things to worry about these days.
How to steal like Wall Street
On Wall Street, you gamble. You gamble big. But you gamble with other people’s money.
Borrow as much as you can. If it doesn’t work out, too bad — for someone else. Heads you win, tails they lose.
But reflect that the top 10 people at Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers walked away with nearly $1 billion before those banks collapsed. A billion dollars. That money went to yachts and mansions and mink coats. The people who ran subprime firms like Countrywide Financial walked away with fortunes.
Reflect, too, that the bonus bonanza has been back on Wall Street for at least two years now.
Which brings us to “Occupy Wall Street,” and the protest movement.
America’s bankruptcy laws are crazy. You can shelter all sorts of money in things like 401(k) plans and still walk away. By the standards of the real, “moral” economy they are unconscionable.
Tackling Income Inequality
The Occupy Wall Street protesters have focused attention on rising income inequality in the United States, and they are right to do so.
Income and wealth disparities have reached levels not seen in the United States since the Roaring Twenties. And the concentration of income and wealth contributed to the speculative excesses that brought on the 2008 financial crisis (see Robert Reich's "Aftershock" and Raghuram Rajan's "Fault Lines").
According to a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office, rising income inequality is a long-term trend that began in the late 1970s and strengthened during the last two decades.
The top 1 percent's share of national income has also been rising in most other advanced industrial countries, but it is by far the largest and has grown the most in the United States (see Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson's "Winner-Take-All Politics").
The top 0.1 percent earns about half of all capital gains, and such gains account for about 60 percent of the income of the top 400 taxpayers.
Large cuts in federal tax rates on capital and business income have been very beneficial to the top 1 percent over time.
As a result of these changes, along with President Bush's across-the-board cuts in income tax rates, federal taxes as a share of household income fell for the top 1 percent. Over all, the Bush tax cuts were the largest -- not only in dollar terms but also as a percentage of income -- for high-income households and increased the concentration of after-tax income at the top. Far from curbing escalating inequality, the Bush tax cuts exacerbated the problem.
A credible plan to reduce the long-run deficit requires a significant increase in revenue. Polls indicate that the majority of Americans, like the Wall Street protesters, believe that higher taxes on the rich are warranted both to reduce the deficit and to contain mounting inequality.
Restoring the top income tax rates and capital gains and dividends tax rates to their levels under President Clinton, as President Obama has repeatedly proposed, would be useful first steps. Taxing some carried interest as ordinary income would make the tax system more efficient and curtail outsize compensation in the financial sector. Adding a progressive consumption tax would augment revenue while encouraging saving and discouraging spending on luxury goods, both by the very rich and by those down the income ladder struggling to keep up.
The majority of Americans, like the Wall Street protesters, also believe the corporate tax rate should be raised.
Raising tax rates on capital gains and dividends to the levels under President Clinton would curb the growth of income for the top 1 percent and could finance a substantial cut in the corporate tax rate that would bolster wages and job opportunities for American workers.
U.S. Economy Growing at Fastest Pace of the Year
The U.S. economy may end 2011 growing at its fastest clip in 18 months as analysts increase their forecasts for the fourth quarter just a few months after a slowdown raised concern among investors.
Behind the revised fourth quarter forecasts: Consumers have not cut back on spending even with the turmoil in world financial markets, putting pressure on companies to rebuild inventories they ran down because of concerns about Europe.
Housing construction permits climbed last month to their highest level since March 2010, according to Commerce Department data, as the near record-low mortgage rates lured some buyers into the market.
The future pace of consumer spending ultimately will be decided by the growth of household income, which in turn is tied to the health of the job market.
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