Friday, August 31, 2012

Market Participants Waiting On Speculation

Market settles after long term investors take some profit on the table. Market participants have plenty of cash to wait for buying opportunity on a major pullback or even market crash. However, there are not many sellers dumping shares on fear. Traders exploit market range movement for quick trading.

Seeing that market moves within a range, some market participants follow the trend to execute trades for quick profit. Trading shares are not held for long duration because there remains the threat of sabotage from market manipulators when market is buoyed at high level and trading volume increases.

Hot money is waiting for market news on the next movement. Currently, market participants do not have confidence to increase the weighting of equity stocks for long term holding. Due to enormous amount of surplus capital, market has more upside potential. But traders on speculation should not be too aggressive and should take profit when market tide turns.

$6 Million Gets You Into 1% at 40, but Not at 60
The price of being a One Percenter might seem like a simple number. For income, it's around $380,000 a year. For wealth, it's a total net worth of $8.4 million.

For people in their 40s, it takes a total net worth of $5.8 million to get into the one percent. For people in their 50s, it takes nearly $10 million. For people in their 60s, it takes around $11.6 million.

This matters for two reasons. First, it tells us that there are really two wealth gaps in America - the gap between the rich and the rest, and the gap between the young and the old. Of course, it's natural for wealth to accumulate over a lifetime. Yet the wealthy gap by age is growing rapidly.

Americans Think the Rich Are Smarter, But Greedier
The Presidential campaign has given us two opposing stereotypes of the wealthy - neither of which reflects the actual views of most American voters.

Republicans say that the rich are hard-working job creators who are admired - and even saluted - by their fellow Americans. They say Americans don't want to tax success and engage in wealth spreading.

Democrats say the rich didn't make it on their own, and can be heartless and uncharitable. They say Americans want the rich to pay their fair share and want to shrink the growing wealth gap.

The poll shows that the upper-income groups are happier, healthier and doing better financially that most Americans. About four in ten upper-class adults say they are in better shape now than they were before the recession. That compares with about four in ten middle-class adults who say they are in worse financial shape.

China: Not a Country for Nervous Investors
Softening Chinese demand and a swooning stock market is making investors fearful about an economic retrenchment, a prominent China-watcher told CNBC Monday.

"Right now, investors are spooked about China. It will probably grow 8%-ish for the year still, but this is not a time to own Chinese stocks," said Rutledge, a former economic adviser to presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

Paulson & Co. Facing Some Frustrated Investors
Many of Paulson & Co.'s investors hung with it last year despite an annus horribilis in which the company's flagship hedge fund lost 35 percent. But with returns continuing to sag amid a rising equities market, some of those investors are now jumping ship.

Citigroup (C) announced last week that it was pulling Paulson off its hedge-fund investment platform and planned to take back $410 million in assets.

Morgan Stanley's (MS) brokerage firm has reportedly had the fund company on watch for possible removal from its hedge-fund platform for months now. And other investors big and small are considering redeeming their capital soon as well, say bank officials and fund of funds managers.

Paulson investor redemption windows vary according to individual fund and the timeframe of the original capital inflows. Some Advantage investors, for instance, are on quarterly redemption time frames, while others are on semiannual or even annual ones. In all cases, investors must provide 60 days' notice if they want to pull out their money.

Investors to Market: I’m Just Not That Into You
Wall Street is a funny place, with its inverse indicators, relative outperformance, and discounting mechanisms that often predigest good and bad news before it happens. And so it almost seems fitting that a week after the S&P 500 touched a 4-year high - then failed to follow through - the stock-buying community is a tad nervous about getting in on a rally that began in early June.

What's worse, even though a dollar's worth of earnings costs 15% less today than it did at the top of the market five years ago, investors are still not moved to act on this theoretical sale or value.

"One thing that we're looking at is, are investors looking for information?" Lydon says. "Surprisingly, ETF-related searches (on the internet) are down 50% from this time a year ago, so it's amazing how the average investor really is not engaged or confident about the market going forward."

"For us to make that next 11% climb from where we are right now in the S&P, to hit a new high where we were in 2007, the average investor is going to have to get engaged," Lydon says, and so-called ''cheapness" does not appear to be the motivating force.

Luxury Goods Sales Defy Global Slowdown
Luxury goods firms in Europe reported booming retail sales in Europe, Asia and emerging markets on Friday bucking the downturn seen in other retail sectors.

French luxury leather goods retailer Hermes and Italian designer shoemaker Ferragamo (Frankfurt Stock Exchange: S9L-FF) both reported double-digit increases in profits and revenues in their latest report to investors as demand for luxury goods remained robust in Asia - and even in Europe.

Hermes International, a maker of designer bags and silk scarves, said it was raising its annual growth target from 10 to 12 percent after its profits for the first half of 2012 grew 28 percent to 335.1 million euros ($418.81 million).

Both companies attributed the success of their sales figures to the continued demand for luxury goods in Asia, and even Europe, despite the economic slowdown in both regions. Michele Norsa, Chief Executive of Ferragamo, remained confident that growth would continue in Asia.

What $2 Million Buys You in Silicon Valley
Silicon Valley's dynamic, tech-based economy has inflated home prices in the area for more than two decades. But lately, thanks to a rash of IPO's and the mobility of global wealth, relatively modest properties in the suburban towns south of San Francisco have been going for mansion-like prices.

Sales of homes for $1 million or more doubled in the towns south of San Francisco in the past year, passing Beverly Hills and Miami, where the sumptuous palaces snapped up by the rich look more the part.

Thursday, August 30, 2012





蕭若元聲明 (中國3D數碼公司關係)


1) 早在1993年,我開始在溫州設廠,全盛時期在國內同時擁有7間工廠,價值超過十億元,但我一直謹守原則,國內事務一概交由職員奔走處理,謝絕與國內各級官員應酬,亦從不接受任何國內政治銜頭;

2) 兩年前我出售所有美容業務之後,在國內直接管理的業務投資額為零,主要因為我極不喜歡國內的經營環境;

3) 生意上,我已是半退休,現時只管理香港人網,及以主席身份低度參與無限創意控股(香港上市編號:8079)業務運作,亦將於短期內全面退出生意管理;

4) 無限創意持有中國3D數碼(香港上市編號:8078)20%股權,雖為單一大股東,但並無控制性地位。中國3D數碼自有其董事局及獨立經營方針。雖然董事局主席蕭定一是我的兒子,但他今年已38歲,我不會干涉他的業務,亦無能力、無興趣干涉;

5) 與我不和或被我批評但同時與蕭定一關係良好者比比皆是。例如:眾所周知,我猛烈批評無綫電視,但蕭定一的娛樂經理人公司旗下藝人卻在無綫電視節目擔任主持;又例如:我與《蘋果日報》關係不佳,但蕭定一與《蘋果日報》關係則不錯,有關於他或他的電影消息經常被《蘋果日報》大幅報道。這是否又證明了我的背後有無綫電視及《蘋果日報》的支持呢?

6) 我的政治立場四十年不變,言行一致,有目共睹。我深愛香港,但感香港生活形式近年受到嚴重威脅,因此在63歲之齢,仍決定挺身而出,堅決反對港共治港,對抗梁振英政府。

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

蕭若元冇得口若懸河 參選後仍照寫 專欄終暫停


或涉額外宣傳 違《選舉指引》




Tuesday, August 28, 2012




  土木工程拓展署早前進行地質調查時,在本港東南部發現了一座古代超級死火山,是首次在本港以至中國東南部發現古代超級火山。署方指該死火山於一億四千萬年前最後一次爆發,命名為「糧船灣超級火山」,火山岩由糧船灣伸延至果洲群島,覆蓋西貢東部地質公園,其噴出的火山灰冷卻後形成著名的六角柱岩,而火山較深層部分則為花崗岩,由淺至深從西貢伸展至九龍及香港島。署方已就有關發現撰寫文章,並於今年一月在美國地球物理期刊《Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems》中發表。




Saturday, August 25, 2012

澄清傳聞,邵氏情色大師呂奇在台灣近況 (轉載 發表時間:2007-12-01)




個人簡介:呂奇原名湯覺民,廣東台山人,1949年七歲來港。 1958年考入中聯演員訓練班,翌年加入邵氏粵語片組,簽約五年,第一部主演電影為《戀愛與貞操》。呂奇1959年7月與胞妹李敏參加邵氏粵語片組簽約五年。首部主演作品《公子多情》轟動一時。第二部自編自演的《情人的眼淚》也十分賣座。


他從而成為六十年代最走紅的粵語片小生。曾多次獲港十大明星之一。呂奇1974年自組金禾公司,為邵氏包拍影片,專走色情片製作路線。 1965年,呂奇自組廿一世紀公司,初時兼任編劇,後來掌執導之職。呂奇寫的第一個劇本是《情人的眼淚》,自編自演,極為賣座。而首部由他自編自導自演的作品為《蔓莉蔓莉我愛你》。他執導的電影約三十部,較著名的有《娘惹之戀》、《偷心賊》等。

1974年,呂奇組金禾影業公司,為邵氏拍攝多部經典艷情片,如《丹麥嬌娃》、《財子、名花、星媽》等。他自組的公司在八十年代連續出品了多部色情片,在香港三級片中佔有很重要的地位。他的電影多出以色情片格局的社會諷剌喜劇,票房十分成功,其中《財子、名花、星媽》更是香港首出“露毛”色情片。呂奇主理的色情片,有著五、六十年代粵語片的社會寫實特色,雖然故事不離男盜女娼,但在販賣女性胴體之餘,又不忘加入大量道德批判,甚至有為被壓逼女生說話的抱負,問題所謂反省都是很皮毛的層次。另外,呂奇電影的品味如玩屎尿屁笑料亦令人不敢恭維。唯一脫俗的,是電影的女性形象的獨立自強,相比起一般港產片,算是相對地進步得多。 1987年拍罷《命帶桃花》後,就結束公司到台灣經商了。










每一張照片對呂奇來說都是一個故事,從四十幾歲離開電影圈,退休後過平常人的生活,就好像這個世界上,這個電影圈中沒呂奇這個人,退休的十九年,他一直在台北住,現在有人碰見他,認得他是呂奇,請他拍照留念,他會別過面去說﹕"什麼呂奇﹖我不是。" 幾年前,有雜誌報導呂奇在台灣開計程車。呂奇笑著拿著照片說自己沒有開的士的面相,實際上退休後的呂奇生活不知多麼的寫意。他選擇台灣定居,只因為他喜歡這個地方很平靜。和自己片中的女主角凌黛結婚後,他就一直以平凡心態生活著,一九八七年,呂奇拍了《命帶桃花》後全面退出影壇。原來他退休前三年,已作出準備。他一直有玩股票。後來到台灣後就專心做起了股票生意,加上物業收租,生活還是十分的愜意.

退休後他的生活完全沒有問題。他說﹕我沒有不良嗜好,也不愛賭,賭性不強,我又很能節制,因此從來沒有為錢擔心過。這麼多年來,一向有人找呂奇回港拍戲,他非但不感興趣,還說﹕"我讓他們死了這條心,我完全拒絕。"呂奇已完全沒有這方面的興趣,掌聲是什麼東西﹖在娛樂圈,他看到假的東西太多了。我不喜歡假的東西,這十九年我過得很開心,人家找不到呂奇。我心裡想,我不要掌聲,我陪孩子長大,是另外一種福氣及享受。大明星賺錢容易,過的可不是人的生活,人家睡覺,我們還在拍戲呢。 」

呂奇和凌黛結婚廿年,育有兩個兒子,大的十八歲、小的十四歲。大兒子在東吾大學念法律系,大兒子有一百八十公分高度,有乃父真傳,英俊挺拔,也有人找他拍廣告、拍戲。呂奇不會讓他入娛樂圈,他對兒子說﹕「在娛樂圈發展,你們具備有這樣的條件,但娛樂圈太假了,做這一行永遠不會開心,有不斷的壓力,這部戲成功不代表下一部戲成功,而且在娛樂圈沒有家庭生活。」呂奇又說﹕「早結婚,婚姻也不會長久,外來的吸引力很大,好像我拍戲,做小生有很多女仔,每一部戲都愛得很堅定,好真心,不知不覺就養成某種性格。Say No又會傷害人家,不Say No就會傷害家人。」


Friday, August 24, 2012

dbc遣散員工 卻9‧21啟播




稱下月11日停播 無知會政府


限18月內正式啟播 預播不計





前主持追數 數臭鄭經翰




買斷合約 出爾反爾





案件編號:LBTC 2541/2012

【蘋果動新聞】龍心抽乳模水 想食超蓮

龍心噚日喺鰂魚涌為一網上遊戲代言,現場仲有「好雙乳」嘅模 Theresa.C 做拍檔,龍心梗唔放過抽水機會,除咗手多多想㩒佢胸前粒癦外,又出撩陰腿,

Market Top Triggers Profit Taking

After market has reached peak in four years, some investors begin to take profit due to lack of confidence. Nevertheless, selling is only for small portion of the portfolio and does not cause panic in the market. Long term investors see the payoff in the purchase of equity stocks during the panic sell-off from institutional and individual investors a year ago. The orderly sales cause drop in market but the pullback attracts some buyers with cash on the sideline.

Market participants watch market recovering from sell-offs to current peak and is approaching historic peak. Few would anticipate such a strong market movement due to lack of confidence and widely spread pessimism. On the other hand, in the course of market advancement, it attracts hot capital on speculation. Also, economic activities generate a lot of wealth. Since households remain risk averse, these surplus capital are swirling in the financial market looking for investment return.

The financial market is flooded with hot money. But investors remain cautious in equity stocks. On the other hand, stock valuation is attractive and market participants are unlikely to dump the core portfolio as in the panic sell-offs. There is speculation that equity stock market will fall hardly after reaching year high. Market cycle in previous years has a much larger decline than the pullbacks in this year. Therefore market participants are waiting for the opportunity with plenty of cash to pick up bargains. The missing condition is the need for sellers to dump stocks desperately for cash. Market manipulators appears to be afraid of short selling the market. Long term investors are unloading portion of the portfolio but selling is limited. Institutional and individual investors have abundant cash and are not willing to dump stocks. Although market is likely to continue to climb on a wall of worry, market participants on speculation should track the flow of hot money for sign of fleeing capital from equity stock market.

Investors Are Still in Hiding
After a summer of low volume and high gains, the stock market soon will face the challenge of whether it can sustain a rally once the crowd comes back from vacation.

"The individual investor is still not in," said Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisory in Sacramento, Calif. "At some point there could be some panic buying by some individuals if they gain confidence. But the average investor doesn't believe in this."

In Lee's scenario, the late-year pullback will come not from concerns over Europe's debt crisis or the perils of Congress failing to hit deficit-reduction targets and sending the economy over the fiscal cliff of tax increases and spending cuts. Rather, he said the market likely will retreat if President Obama wins re-election.

Springer is advising clients to buy stocks but to move carefully, as he sees the market coming apart next year after central banks are no longer successful in stimulating the market.

"It's not a rising tide raises all boats in this case," he said. "They're being very selective generally, in large-caps, interest-sensitive stuff. It tells you there's very selective buying, which is not what bull markets are made of."

Cramer's 5 Rules for Becoming a Better Investor
Investors can avoid some of the most common and money-losing mistakes in any environment by following five easy rules, "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer said Friday.

"If you follow my rules, you should be able to recognize an opportunity when you see it and to manage to avoid losing money when you don't have to, no matter what the circumstances, including a collapse in Europe or a slowing in China or even a skyrocketing oil price," he said.

Rule No. 1: "Don't dig in your heels when you're wrong"
The late, great economist John Maynard Keynes always said, "When the facts change, I change my mind." Cramer has adopted the quote as his personal mantra. After all, he said one of the easiest mistakes to make is refusing to change your mind when the facts are in and you've been proven wrong. It's one of the most difficult things for the most emotional investors and traders to do, but also crucial to be a good investor.

Rule No. 2: "Price matters"
Price is so important, that if it could go low enough, investors are willing to buy stocks of companies they don't even like that much. Cramer will never recommend a stock when he thinks the fundamentals of the underlying company are deteriorating and normally there's a lot of space between a "best of breed" company and one that's uninvestable. In normal circumstances then, if a lowly company's stock falls to a certain level that makes it just too darned cheap to pass up, Cramer thinks it's perfectly OK to buy when you merely have a low opinion of the underlying company. That's when price matters.

Rule No. 3: "Don't take your cue from an inferior company"
When a "worst of breed" name says things are bad for the entire sector, don't just take it on faith, Cramer said. Weak players always seek to pin their failings on the entire industry, he explained. It's important, then, that investors are able to recognize the excuses.

Rule No. 4: "Don't believe the hype"
Not all upside surprises are worth getting excited about, Cramer said. If a company reports quarterly results that show its earnings-per-share are higher than what the average analyst on Wall Street had expected, then all of the headlines will describe it as an upside surprise.

Rule No. 5: "Be critical of commentary"
One of the most natural and misleading mistakes, Cramer said, is to assume that people on TV criticizing the market must be telling the truth. Don't fall victim to this. People who dislike the market are not any more honest or less self-interested than those who talk up the market and/or individual stocks.

Investors should be just as skeptical of bears as they are of bulls. But to most people, expressing a critical view of the market and/or an individual stock automatically bolsters the commentators credibility. But Cramer said the people criticizing the market in the media aren't necessarily trying to help you.

'Most Hated' Stock Rally Has New Non-Believers
I said a couple weeks ago that this was the most hated stock rally in years; looks like everyone else is jumping on the bandwagon.

The problem is two-fold: 1) The U.S. economy is chugging along with, at best, anemic 2 percent growth, but the U.S. stock market is near a four-year high; and 2) U.S. big-cap indexes are near four-year highs, but the Chinese market is near a four-year low.

The Chinese market is closed to foreigners, which is an issue, but you can see the main problem is the strength of the U.S. markets. No one believes it. The reason stocks are higher, the skeptics insist, is because the Federal Reserve continues to dangle a third round of quantitative easing in front of the market. Without it, the markets would collapse.

There is no doubt that there is a "Bernanke put" operating under the market, but how great that put is remains to be seen. I think stock prices are higher because of it, but I don't think it is preventing the market from collapsing.

No, the reason stocks are stronger is that, while earnings growth has slowed this year, it has not evaporated. S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 6 percent in 2012...that is slower than the 14 percent growth in 2011, but still respectable.

Maybe that's why so much foreign money continues to find its way into the U.S., for stocks as well as real estate.

No, we are near multiyear highs in the stock market because corporate earnings are near record highs, and that's what matters. It's true that revenue growth is flat, and that is a real problem, but absent that growth corporations continue to find ways to cut costs and stay profitable.

Why Cramer Doesn't Hate This Market
As U.S. stocks eased off their worst levels to end mostly flat Monday, the stock market managed to remain around four-year highs. Nevertheless, Jim Cramer noted that many on Wall Street still object to the rally.

"Right now we've got a first class hate going against this market," the "Mad Money" host said, adding that light volume, reports of subpar corporate revenues and an uncertain political environment have left some investors worried about the sustainability of the market's gains.

"Hated rallies don't stay hated. They tend to gain adherents and the trick is to recognize when that starts happening before the adherents overwhelm the sellers and the sidelined players become anxious to get in and have seller's remorse."

Can Stocks Shake 'Sell in May' Summertime Curse?
Stocks are breaking a recent pattern, shaking off their summertime blues and recapturing four-year highs, and there are even reasons why those gains could continue for now.

Many investors are skeptical and are waiting for the market to get crushed in September, either from sour news out of Europe, potential disappointment from the Fed, or just the political noise that comes with the election and Washington's failure to act quickly on the fiscal cliff.

They are also watching the escalating rhetoric on Iran's nuclear intentions.

In an eerie pattern, the S&P 500 has, in each of the past three years, hit highs in late April or early May then sold off into the summer in a perfect "sell in May" pattern. In 2010, stocks recovered the summer's losses by November, and last year it wasn't until February 2012. But this year, stocks hit the low ground in June and have now quietly climbed back to the four-year high the market was flirting with in April.

While investors find plenty to hate about the market rally, Maxim Group technical analyst Paul LaRosa says there are some signs the rally has legs for the time being. But in the very short term, it will have to be confirmed by a close above 1,422, and then by gains in other indexes. He pointed to the Russell 2000 which is just joining the rally.

"This is a key juncture we're at in the market here. We're going to determine whether this is the tip of the iceberg, and we're going much higher," he said. "Or we'll see the market won't confirm." At that point, a selloff would bring a buying opportunity.

"This is taking people by surprise, which is what a good intermediate term rally does. You start to see more sectors come out on good, bullish bases. We're seeing that in financials. We're seeing in some of the commodity-related issues. Energy names are looking pretty good here," LaRosa said. "I think some of the money sitting on the sidelines is starting to come in."

"While the market may look overbought here, historically, investors have been very willing to jump back in and drive the market even higher once they've been assured that the correction is over and the bull market has resumed," Bespoke analysts wrote.

Stay Bullish Until 2 Signs Say Otherwise: Pro
On Tuesday, pros were watching the market melt up take stocks to four-year highs, with the S&P now more than 3 percent higher in August alone.

Trader Stephen Weiss shares the outlook. "I remain a buyer of the market," he says. Weiss feels that US data has improved and Europe's crisis appears to remain ring-fenced. However, he also suggests watching these market influences tirelessly. "It could all change in the blink of an eye."

Goldman Sachs: Dump Stocks Before Fiscal Cliff Hits
You can sense almost an air of desperation from David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, in his latest note to clients as he pleads with them to take money out of stocks before they fall off the fiscal cliff.

In the note, Kostin vehemently defends his year-end S&P 500 target of 1250 despite the benchmark's recent rise to above 1400. The strategist still sees a 12 percent drop ahead, believing that Congress will fail to address the fiscal cliff before the election, and maybe even before the end of the year.

The worst case scenario this year is that a lame duck Congress does absolutely nothing after the election - not even kick the can down the road by voting in a short extension of the tax breaks and spending plans. Under that scenario, 2013 GDP would actually contract, according to Goldman Sachs economists.

Is ‘Maximizing Shareholder Value’ No Longer the Goal?
Joe Nocera, an op-ed columnist with The New York Times, took a shot across the bow of conventional business wisdom in his article earlier this month entitled, "Down with Shareholder Value." The column notes the rise of prominent voices calling to question the wisdom of the shareholder wealth maximization norm as the operating principle of corporations, and Nocera is genuinely curious to see if the movement has legs.

First, we can advance the conversation far more rapidly by clarifying two common misconceptions about corporate law. Many of us have heard that corporations are legally required to maximize shareholder value. Guess what, they are not. The law in the United States does not require management to maximize shareholder value (except under rare circumstances such as when the company gets put up for sale). This may surprise you because you've also probably also heard that shareholders own the corporation. That's not true either. The law is quite clear on this issue and shareholders do not own the corporation. The law is actually ambivalent about the purpose of the corporation, leaving society and business leaders the discretion to make choices. It's up to us to think critically about what purposes we want corporations to play in our society.

Yoshikami: The Markets Will Not Drop 25%
Recent headlines have suggested that the fiscal cliff and continuing struggles in the US economy will cause equity markets to drop in the next few months by 25%.

The case is compelling as the US speeds towards mandatory budget cuts, undoubtedly more gridlock, unemployment that seems not to be healing as fast as the Fed would like, and the uncertainty related to Federal Reserve policy.

. Fundamentals suggest that stocks are fairly valued. While some may debate current valuation levels, cash flow and earnings suggest that the market is not massively overpriced.

. Stimulus efforts will continue on a global basis. While there is uncertainty as to the level of efforts that will be taken by monetary agencies, it appears likely that action will occur in an attempt to move the economy forward on a global basis. The United States, China, Japan, and Europe will all likely continue on an easing path that will lubricate risk assets.

. While unemployment is high and negatively impacts millions of workers, the net result for companies is greater efficiency providing a corporate profit tailwind.

. While emerging markets have struggled, increased personal and business wealth is a reality. Consumption will be positively impacted as markets in emerging economies evolve towards a more balanced economic model.

. Interest rates remain low providing investors a phantom tax rebate. While real estate prices are disastrous, monthly payments are not and low payments provide greater dollars to spend on other goods thereby stimulating economic activity.

Decide which type of investor you are before you invest and make sure they are overall strategy reflects your view of the world as well as the degree to which you can afford to be completely wrong.

What Bubble? Bond Pros Still Betting on Junk
Plunging yields and surging supply has triggered a scare in high-yield bonds, but bubble hunters may be looking in the wrong place.

Average yields in the junk market recently slipped below the pivotal 7 percent mark, while global issuance hit its highest July ever last month. With economic growth slowing, some pros are speculating that the aggressive run in high yield is about to end.

But those fears come as cash remains around record levels on corporate balance sheets, defaults remain low, and the stock market continues to rally.

Still, the fears persist that the flock to junk, spurred by extremely low yields in government debt, is creating a bubble ready to pop.

"People wanted more yield than the United States Treasury was willing to give. So they went to other places to get it, and that's a risky situation," says Kevin Ferry, president of Cronus Futures Management in Chicago.

Cronus's Ferry adds that the investors who are betting on a junk bubble must reason that "then the stock market is a bubble."

Even banking analyst Dick Bove at Rochdale Securities echoed the theme, saying the drop in junk yields shows that "investors feel a need to get a higher return on their cash hoards. Simply seeking safety in Treasury securities is not meeting the need of investors."

Global issuance for high-yield bonds hit $24.6 billion in July 2012, a staggering rise of 88 percent over June and the biggest July on record, according to Dealogic. Yet issuance for the year, at $210.5 billion, is 19 percent below the same period in 2011, suggesting that the risky rally in fixed income could continue, and spread elsewhere.

"It is a short step from there into common stocks," Bove said. "In the case of banks, if investors choose to look, profits are very high and valuations are very low."

Happy Days May be Here Again: Economist Mark Zandi
The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that the U.S. economy could slip back into recession if Congress fails to act before a total $8 trillion worth of tax increases and spending cuts are due to take effect in January — the so-called fiscal cliff. The same day the Fed signaled it was prepared to act fairly soon if growth doesn't pick up substantially and on a sustainable basis.

The aforementioned are two very big ifs, but Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, has a rather optimistic outlook.

Zandi attributes his rosy sentiment to deleveraging throughout the economy.

"The banking system is on much more solid ground, households have done a very good job of reducing their debt and most importantly American businesses are in very good financial shape," he says. "They've reduced their debt, got their balance sheets in order and are very profitable."

Light Volumes Turn Wall Street Into Ghost Town
A summer August is typically never that active on Wall Street. However, this month's volume is on track to be extraordinary light, calling into question the legitimacy of the recent rise in stocks and threatening the profits of some market's participants.

"It's only likely to get worse in the next two weeks," said Richard Repetto, the firm's exchange and trading analyst, in the report. "Despite rising equity markets, investor confidence remains low."

Despite the run at the new high this week, equities have basically stalled this month in a small trading range. And retail investors continue to shun stocks for bonds instead.

S&P 500: The War for 1,400 Has Begun
From June 4th through last Monday the S&P 500 rallied over 11%. The move was like floating down a lazy river; slow, steady, and just a little bit boring. Dropping from an intraday high of 1,426 to 1,400.5 was less than a 2% loss, but it was enough to remind traders that even mild rivers have their waterfalls and rapids that demand respect, if not fear.

Eric Wilkinson, co-founder of Blue Group Trading says that for bulls to keep the upper hand they need to hold the line at 1,400. "That's where the most amount of trading has happened over the course of the most amount of time," he says.

Either the bulls or the bears are going to get start getting very uncomfortable depending on the next 1%. Of such discomfort are sharp and expended moves born.

Stocks are right near 1,400, right now on Friday morning. Ignore the level if you like, but be aware that billions of dollars is being wagered on which way the tape is going to move next. Short or long, it's game on. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.

Saturday, August 18, 2012

【Woolly Mammoth: Secrets from the Ice 】BBC2 (YouTube)

Professor Alice Roberts reveals the natural history of the most famous of Ice Age animals - the woolly mammoth. Mammoths have transfixed humans since the depths of the last Ice Age, when their herds roamed across what is now Europe and Asia. Although these curious members of the elephant family have now been extinct for thousands of years, scientists can now paint an incredibly detailed picture of their lives thanks to whole carcasses that have been beautifully preserved in the Siberian permafrost. Alice meets the scientists who are using the latest genetic, chemical and molecular tests to reveal the adaptations that allowed mammoths to evolve from their origins in the tropics, to surviving the extremes of Siberia. And in a dramatic end to the film, she helps unveil a brand new woolly mammoth carcass that may shed new light on our own ancestors' role in their extinction.



Now - 海琪的天空鄭大班專訪 (YouTube)

節目主持: 馬恩賜、黎則奮、黃世澤,節目版權為「香港數碼廣播公司」所有。

Friday, August 17, 2012

元朗鼠患18區最嚴重 食肆佔路衛生劣 鼠大如貓



對於元朗區成為鼠患重災區,元朗區議員周永勤坦言憂慮。他指出,元朗及天水圍不少大型屋苑聚集地,如元朗雞地,即新時代廣場(YOHO Town)一帶以及天水圍俊宏軒附近的食肆,近年有非法擴張趨勢。每到晚上十分旺場,餐桌椅全搬到室外的行人路上,衛生環境惡劣。他表示曾親眼目睹體積大如小貓的老鼠,「貓見到了恐怕也會跑掉!」




Market Dynamics Shifts; Traders Lead The Herd In Buying

Market Continues to waver higher on thin trading volume. As broad market index drifts higher, more market participants feel the pain of missing the rally. Currently, market is within close reach of historic peak while many investors who dumped the portfolio during the financial meltdown in 2009 and parked the money in money market or treasuries and bonds are still waiting for a second market crash. Some market participants are cautiously waiting for a double dip in equity stock market but were caught into panic selling when market manipulators and day traders drove the herd into panic with shocking market news. Smart investors exploited these buying opportunities to make use of the cash on hand.

There are much less panic selling in this year. Market manipulators use the European sovereign debt crisis to drag down market. But the drop is much smaller in comparison with the case of US rating downgrade in last year. There are much fewer panic investors dumping the portfolio and in less quantity. Market participants have less weighting in equity stocks. And some investors may have learned the trick of market manipulators to profit from panic sell-off.

There are several major sell-offs in the recent years. Each subsequent sell-off is smaller in scale than the previous one. Investors trimmed the portfolio most severely during the market meltdown in 2009. Most market participants did not replenish the portfolio in the aftermath due to fear and lack of confidence. The US rating downgrade in last year ignited another round of panic selling. Before the sell-off, investors were slowly adding positions to the portfolio on hope of economic recovery. But the panic sell-off caused investors to trim the portfolio further. Since market participants had a smaller portfolio in stock equities and less households participated in stock trading, the sell-off was less severe than the 2009 crash. Some pessimistic investors were afraid of another crash like 2009 and stayed with cash to wait for 2009 bottom. Although market fell hard, it got support from long term investors well above the 2009 bottom. Disappointed market participants could not buy shares at the desired low price.

While market participants remain pessimistic, market continues to climb on a wall of worry. When market set year high, market manipulators attempted to initiate sell-off again using the European debt fear. Profit taking from investors sent stocks down. Most market participants had thin portfolio in stocks but plenty of cash. Therefore investors are reluctant to sell and the sell-off duration was shorter than earlier events. Market manipulators and day traders made much less profit than during the US rating downgrade sell-off.

Market moves and repeats in cycles. Market participants have experienced several sell-offs after the 2009 market crash. Although market participants have little confidence in equity stocks, the financial market is recovering from the frozen condition after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Economic activities have created wealth and the supply and circulation of money have improved significantly from the trough in 2009 meltdown. However, individuals are cautious on risk assets and banks are tightening the credit facility. Small businesses still have difficulties to operate and expand the business. Current equity stock market is unattractive to many individual investors. Institutional investors begin to see inflow of capital because market goes higher and attracts investors with risk appetite. There are diverse factors to influence market direction. For speculative trading, short term movement is artificially manipulated through capital flow. Market manipulators and traders have a leading role in driving the herd of market participants. An accurate and timely analysis of market mechanism would be helpful in making correct investment decision.

Cramer Explains What's Sending Stocks Higher
Although the S&P 500 snapped its six-day winning streak Monday, Jim Cramer noted that stocks have largely been able to push higher despite an array of economic concerns, including weak commodity and shipping numbers.

First, Cramer argued that people invest in companies, not commodities, and many companies are making a lot of money right now.

Second, he said investors want to see companies' profits - not revenues - push higher because greater profits produce greater dividends.

Third, he pointed out that the economy is largely dependent on the condition of the housing market.

To Cramer, economic indicators like commodity prices or freight rates are only obscuring the earnings and dividends that are actually propelling stocks higher right now.

Worst-Case Economic Scenarios Will Be Avoided This Year: Mark Dow
Recent weak economic data in Asia, due in large part to the slowing European economy, has heightened concerns for a looming recession in the region (and the rest of the world).

In an interview with The Daily Ticker in December, Dow predicted 2012 would not be a banner year for global growth, financial assets and commodities. Aside from stocks, which have done relatively well despite European headwinds, his forecast is on target. He also sees lots of opportunities for investors in the current market.

Whatever the outcome in Greece, fears of spiller-over effects from a potential Greek meltdown are over blown, he notes. He firmly believes there is no risk for contagion or a Lehman-like event.

"As Germany gets more involved deeper and deeper and deeper into the European problem more of the toxic assets are migrating from the balance sheet of the private to the balance sheet of the official sector," he says, adding that during the Lehman crisis in 2008 many investors and banks were long toxic assets, which led to a lot of forced selling. As a result, he says the crisis in Europe is actually bullish for stocks.

Dow's bottom line: While this year will be bad, Dow believes the worst-case scenarios will be avoided.

The Costanza Trade: Why the Market Is Irrational & What You Can Do About It
Stocks are higher by more than 10% in 2012 yet are widely reviled and distrusted by the masses. Hedge funds are up less than 3%, equity mutual fund outflows are a way of life and trading volumes are negligible. Scott Bleier of has a decent explanation for how stock indices can rally while individuals get nothing but angry.

"We are on a hamster wheel," says Bleier in the attached video. Individuals are running furiously to keep up with global news, financial scandals, and a crumbling economy. The most bullish forces are those of the Federal Reserve's invention, so the worse it gets, the more likely the Fed saves us. As a result bad news can be good and vice versa.

Bleier says the negative fundamentals are about to combine with improving sentiment to create a brutal, painful reversal in the relatively near term. Fund flows and hatred be damned, he says everybody is getting long stocks if only because they don't want to miss the party. When the momentum buying dies so does the rally.

It's not a matter of avoiding markets entirely but a warning about knowing what you're getting into when you buy. "Understand what you're dealing with," he warns. "You're dealing with artificial markets that you can make money in. It's a dichotomy."

Euro Zone Equity Markets Shrink: Time to Buy?
The size of the euro zone equity market has contracted so much that it is now smaller than the U.S. technology sector - but strategists are divided on whether this presents a buying opportunity.

After several tough years for the financial sector with bank nationalizations, and a new crop of scandals brewing, the euro zone financial sector is very cheap relative to the past decade, according to BoAML. European financial stocks are down around 80 percent from their all-time highs and trade at just half their book value. On the other hand, euro zone equities as a whole are down 56 percent from their all-time highs.

"We know that European equities should be trading at a discount, but by our calculations the relative discount has only been this high three times in the past century. We've got a systemic crisis, but we had two world wars," Richard Cookson, global chief economist at Citi Private Bank, told CNBC.

Study: Companies paid more to CEOs than in US tax
Twenty-six big U.S. companies paid their CEOs more last year than they paid the federal government in tax, according to a study released Thursday by a liberal-leaning think tank.

The study, by the Institute for Policy Studies, said the companies, including AT&T, Boeing and Citigroup, paid their CEOs an average of $20.4 million last year while paying little or no federal tax on ample profits, according to regulatory filings.

Some companies cited in the study said it was misleading. They also said they took advantage of tax deductions and credits designed to free up money for companies to spend in ways that stimulate the economy.

On average, the 26 companies generated pretax net income of more than $1 billion in the U.S., the study said.

The study, a 45-page attack on the corporate tax code, said deductions and credits are allowing companies to lavish big pay packages on executives so they can cut their tax bills while Washington gets less money in a time of trillion-plus deficits.

"Our nation's tax code has become a powerful enabler of bloated CEO pay," the study said.

The ''Worship' of Stocks Is Dead: Bill Gross
Bill Gross - reiterating his now-famous critique of equities - told CNBC that while stocks are still likely to return more than most other asset classes, they would occupy a less cherished - and lucrative - place in investors' portfolios.

Gross, Founder and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Pimco, manager of the world's largest bond fund, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" that a "30, 40, 50-year old cult" of equities returning double-digits was nearing an end.

"Equities have reached a dead end in terms of significant appreciation," Gross said. "Equities are still alive, but the cult of equities is dying."

He said investors may want to search for investments other than in stocks and bonds, such as land or other assets.

Adapt or Perish, Credit Suisse Tells Traders
Declining volumes on global stock markets appear to show that real money trading activity is at decade lows, according to a new report from Credit Suisse, and investors believe volumes will stay low for two more years unless global resolutions to the risks of the economic crisis are found.

Credit Suisse's report on trading activity shows that over the past four years, volumes in equity markets have been steadily falling and are now at half the level seen in the middle of the credit crisis - and traders fear they could get worse.

Traders needed to prepare for change as more and more investors turn to cheaper, electronic execution, the report stated. More trading institutions were looking for "quality over quantity...trimming broker lists...rather than reducing all commission spend equally" and traders needed to "adapt or perish" in order to survive.

3 Reasons Why This Rally Is Real and Will Last
A few days ago I was going through a mental exercise trying to list all the headwinds and tailwinds that this rising stock market is facing right now. I'll be honest, coming up with the cons was easy, since it is essentially a list of all the familiar spooky themes and plots. Listing positives, however, did not come easily and left me - like many - at a loss to explain why stocks have undergone this 3-month sprint.

That is not the case with Jim Paulsen though, as the Chief Investment Strategist at Wells Capital Management easily rattles of reasons we he thinks there's still plenty more room for stocks to go higher.

"This market, as a whole, is starting to suggest that this rally has more legs and sustainability than people might think," Paulsen says in the attached video. "You're seeing more and more underlying characteristics aligning with a real rally."

Such as?

The steady (and not so slow) migration out of Treasuries, Paulsen says. "Finally you're seeing people leave the bond market for the stock market to some extent," he points out, citing the move in the 10-year yield to 1.85% from 1.40% in very short order. That matters, he says because it suggests that "even the bond players are aligning for a little stronger economy, a little greater rally."

He also likes the change of leadership that has not only seen cyclicals like Tech, Materials, and Industrials starting to take the lead but has also "seen the defensives giving way," with things like Staples, Healthcare, and the Dividend Aristocrats fund rolling over.

And finally, Paulsen cites sensitivity - or the lack of it, more specifically - as another reason why this low volume summer melt-up is set to continue beyond the back-to-school sales.

Not only are markets ''less skittish'' but the Vix hasn't budged, the European Conditions Index is at its annual high reflecting none of the fears that tanked it a year ago, and the beta (or volatility) of U.S. stocks compared to Europe is down by one-third.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

【砵蘭街大少】任達華 袁詠儀 張衛健 李麗蕊 (YouTube)


2012年8月11日 龍鳳大茶樓 (DBC 數碼大聲台) 鄭經翰、潘啟迪、馬恩賜

節目主持: 鄭經翰、潘啟迪、馬恩賜,節目版權為「香港數碼廣播公司」所有。

Friday, August 10, 2012

肯尼亞化石證新人種 改寫人類進化史



與直立猿人並存 證進化非直線


不過,考古學家目前仍未能確定新發現的3塊化石是屬於哪一個人種,只能肯定人類的進化過程比原來想像的更複雜。有份發現3塊化石的考古人員斯普爾(Fred Spoor)說﹕「人類進化不止是一條直線。相反,在非洲東部曾經存在過很多不同的人種。」


Flooding Of Capital Makes Seller's Market In Stock Equities

After previous week's rally, equity stock market buoys at a level near year high. As observed weeks ago, smart money began accumulation when market was consolidating at recent bottom. Currently, market is near year high and investors hesitate whether market can go higher. Although there is increasing interest in equity stocks, investors remain very cautious.

Without selling from market manipulators, market participants are seeing profit potential in short term stock trading as market moves up and down but in an overall upward trend. Following market manipulators, day traders also stop selling as institutional and individual investors do not follow the selling and the shares are quickly bought up by bargain hunters. Sideline cash is waiting for pullback after consecutive days of advance.

With the retreat of traders from selling down the market, sellers have far more bargaining power than buyers and stock price has strong support. Nevertheless, trading volume is thin and market can be easily manipulated. On the other hand, there is tremendous sideline cash which is waiting for opportunity of market crash. Since investors are reluctant to sell, imminent market crash due to panic selling is unlikely. But with further advance in market, some investors will take profit on part of portfolio positions. In short term, market should have support. Market participants should watch closely on the flow of hot money which drives the herd of investors.

If Europe Holds It Together, Stocks May Keep Rising
Stocks ride the tailwinds of central bank promises into the week ahead, and could continue to drift higher in the absence of any nasty surprises from Europe.

"There's not a lot of things for the markets to be afraid of. This week was full of event risk," said John Briggs, senior Treasury strategist at RBS. "We are through that, and the markets are coming out with some confidence when it comes to risk assets. With the markets not having a lot to be afraid of, and no blatant 'risk off' events on the calendar, we're looking at auction supply." The Treasury auctions $72 billion in 3- and 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds Tuesday through Thursday.

"It's just one more reminder to retail investors that something is amiss," said Luschini. "After the flash crash and everything else they've gone through, this is just unsettling."

Luschini said most of the action affecting markets in the coming week could come from Europe, but the discussion around the U.S. "fiscal cliff" is getting louder. The "cliff," is a term coined for the double expiration of tax cuts Dec. 31 and beginning of automated spending cuts Jan. 1.

Don't Expect Market Rally to Last: Pro
On Friday, buyers drove the Dow (Dow Jones Global Indexes higher by triple digits as two major positives buoyed sentiment.

"What is more interesting is that we're within 200 to 300 points of recovery highs, which is pretty incredible when you think of all the issues we face."

Will the market re-visit those highs?

Not likely, says Jeff Kilburg, founder of Killir Capital.

"I don't see the euphoria in the stock market reflected in the bond market," he says.

Kilburg and the other pros often look to action in the bond market to confirm or deny a market move. And in this case - they say it'd been denied.

"There is no panic selling," Kilburg says, "and there should be if there's been a meaningful change in the market dynamic."

In other words bond holders aren't selling out of their positions in mass - in expectation of a rotation in higher risk assets. That's something the pros would expect to see if the rally were sustainable.

Tide Turning for Global Equity Markets?
Global equity markets ignored negative headlines on Europe's economy and nagging concerns about a slowdown in China to end in the black for the second straight month in July, signaling a return of risk appetite among investors.

Stock markets worldwide have already priced in too much negative news and are poised for much sharper gains in the months ahead amid signs of more supportive policies from global central banks, said Nomura in a recent report.

"Worldwide market volatility in May essentially 'pre-priced' a high likelihood of an imminent synchronized global recession, presumably stemming from disorderly deterioration in the euro area," Nomura said. "Yet with every week the global catastrophe fails to materialize."

A move from equities into safe-haven bonds should continue to unwind, Nomura says, amid positive signs that the European Central Bank will take decisive action to end the debt crisis in the 17-member single-currency zone.

The brokerage said one potential risk to a rally in equity prices was high food prices, which could constrain central banks from easing monetary policy.

Prices for crops such as wheat, corn and soy beans, have shot up in the past three months - wheat prices, for instance, have gained about 40 percent - threatening the outlook for inflation and causing a headache for policy makers keen to use monetary policy to stimulate their economies.

Money Anxiety Index: Market Rally 'Totally Irrational'
The stock market rally worth about 300 points on the Dow over the past three sessions is "totally irrational," according to the curator of the Money Market Index economic barometer.

"Markets are cycles. The problem is everybody pins markets to economic cycles. That's not the case," says Nadav Baum, executive vice president at BPU Investment Management in Pittsburgh. "Markets are just long-term cycles, and we haven't had a good stock market since 1998. At some point the market's going to do better."

Baum advises clients with a high level of anxiety to stick to what works - dividend-paying blue chips that are going to weather stormy markets.

Indeed, it's been the market stalwarts that have led the way this summer.

Avoiding Stocks Is a Big Mistake: Vanguard Founder
If you don't have money in the stock market and you hope to retire someday, the founder of The Vanguard Group says you're making a big mistake.

John 'Jack' Bogle tells us if you're investing for the long-term don't get spooked by events of late. "Knight Capital is meaningless for anyone in the market for the long haul," he says. "In fact, you're probably in a mutual fund and you can pat yourself on the back for being smart."

In other words, for most individual investors the risk from Knight Capital is non-existent because most individuals hold a basket of stocks and the diversity of the basket hedges out the single stock risk.

And he takes issue with commentary from Bill Gross who believes "the cult of equity is dying."

Bogle goes on to remind us that in 1979 BusinessWeek made the same argument.

The article came out right before the beginning of one of the greatest bull markets of the 20th century, Bogle insists. "It's always a question of balance but anyone who is out of stocks right now is making a big mistake.

Why Are Investors Fleeing Equities? Hint: It's Not the Computers
You've no doubt been reading a lot about a "crisis of confidence" on Wall Street in recent days after software problems at a big trading firm sent the stock market, briefly, into a tizzy.

Everyone is hyperventilating at the errant trades at the Knight Capital Group - suggesting, in the words of Arthur Levitt, that these malfunctions "have scared the hell out of investors." The problems at the firm were immediately lumped together with Facebook's glitch-filled initial public offering, the flash crash of 2010 and the rescinded public offering of BATS Global Markets, among others.

So why are so many investors sitting on their hands? The unemployment crisis, the European debt crisis and the looming fiscal-cliff crisis, to name just a few reasons. Economic growth is slowing, not just in the United States but in China, too.

Even the hedge fund titan Louis M. Bacon has been so humbled by the stock market that he returned $2 billion to his investors last week rather than risk losing it.

Here are the numbers today: About $171 billion has flowed out of mutual funds over the last year, according to the Investment Company Institute, which tracks mutual fund data. Where has all that money gone?

Bonds. About $208 billion has flowed into the bond market over the same period, according to numbers from the I.C.I.

Individuals are worried that it's hard to make the right bet and worried that the market is rigged against them. Much of this is an outgrowth of woes of Wall Street's own making, like insider trading cases or market manipulation scandals. Those situations are partly why individual investors don't believe they stand a chance against the professionals.

Trader Urges Caution and Patience as S&P 500 Tops 1,400
Up, up and away we go. It may be the fifth 3-day, 3-percent rally we've seen in the past 2 months, but this time it's different. At least it feels different as we instantly blasted through the key psychological 1400 level in the opening minutes of trading today, but also broke above the top-side of an upward sloping channel that has been forming since June.

And yet, for all the positive you throw at the market, volume remains light and fear is still heavy as concern about a correction seems to grow by the day.

All the while, this Summer of Hate rally has (so far) defied multiple attempts to knock it down, even though participation has been deemed to be limited given the light trading volume that been a hallmark of the market all summer.

"The market has to digest some of this recent move," Polcari predicts, pointing out that the 1400-breakthrough could attract even more buyers, late in the game. "It'll cause a lot of people to jump right in, and that's just when they shouldn't be doing it."

His advice to investors on how to play it is 3-fold: be patient, be very thoughtful about what you buy, and don't be foolish.

"All and all, the U.S. economy is still on a very rocky road. That's why think you need to be cautious. You will get your opportunity," says Polcari.

The Most Hated Stock Rally in History?
Could this be the most hated stock market rally in history? Not only do traders not like the market, the average public doesn't believe the stock market is rallying.

The S&P 500 less than 1 percent from a four-year high. NYSE short interest is near a five-year peak, which is a decent contrarian indicator.

Why the rally?

1) A widespread belief that more quantitative easing (explain this) is coming from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank: traders in particular are expecting the ECB to lay out more definitive steps on a bond buying program at its next meeting on September 6th;

2) There's nothing for sale, and people cannot afford to be under-invested; most hedge funds -and even many large cap mutual funds - have underperformed this year; and

3) While the global economy is still weak, and Europe is certainly not looking like it is bottoming, there's hope that China will soon embark on a much more aggressive infrastructure program. The Australian Central Bank left interest rates unchanged today and said China's growth was "not slowing further".

Valuations & Mood Down: Of Course It’s Time to Get in the Market Says Haverford’s Smith
In an industry filled with nuance, conditions and measured responses, it's not very often that we get such an unambiguous answer. With stocks rushing towards an annual high, many have wondered whether it's too late to participate in the rally. For Hank Smith, the Chief Investment Officer at Haverford, the answer is a ''no-brainer''. Of course you get in.

"The economy is expanding, not contracting. Corporate profits are rising, not falling. Balance sheets are fortress-like with record amounts of cash. Valuations are attractive, dare I say cheap, and sentiment is extraordinarily negative," Smith rattles off in the attached video. "People are afraid. They're panicked. Look at what they're doing. They're will to accept a zero return on fixed assets just so they get they principal back."

Clearly the flight to safety and appetite for more defensive sectors and stocks has been well pronounced, as concerns about Europe and China led to concerns about our own economy. It's a scenario Smith characterizes as ''unrelenting negative news" and one of the main reasons why he's not shying away from the stock market right now.

Market Rally Just a Set-Up for a Bigger 'Collapse'?
Global stocks have been rallying in recent weeks, climbing a "wall of worry" and confounding the bears, leading a number of strategists to warn the rally is unlikely to last and investors should remain cautious.

"I think we're in choppy waters and that continues. You've got to remember to sell if you own the stock market now," Charlie Morris, Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management told CNBC Europe's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.

Morris says with bad news on the global economy over the past year, the market had "tried to collapse", but with so many people short stocks, the conditions hadn't been ripe. That, he says, could change after the current rally ends.

"You need to trip the market to have a proper collapse. So you almost need to set it up with a rally, get everyone excited and then it can fall," Morris said. "If there are risks, the risks to a very negative market come after this rally fades."

Barclays equity strategist Barry Knapp also pointed out in a note to clients on Wednesday that the underlying factors in terms of "expectations of U.S. and global growth deterioration, less accommodative monetary policy, earnings growth deceleration and elevated public policy uncertainty" were the same as they had been in the second quarter when U.S. stocks dropped 10 percent.

He said investors who were defensively positioned could buy call options on small cap stocks and select cyclical stocks to ensure they didn't lose out on the rally. But, he added: "We remain unconvinced that investors should chase the low volume 'wall of worry' August rally."

Few Believe, but Technicians See Market Rallying On
While many investors fear the market is ignoring reality, some technical analysts say stocks could continue to move higher as the market looks past what worries it.

The unresolved European debt saga, the so-called U.S. "fiscal cliff" and the tension surrounding the U.S. presidential election are all wild cards for the market.

Slowing corporate earnings and the sluggish U.S. economy and global growth, in general, are all valid worries. Yet stock prices are riding a wave of momentum to near four-year highs, even as few investors can be found that love the stock market.

Strategists also say the stock market is being supported by the prospect of more Fed easing, ahead of its Sept. 12 meeting. The double whammy of possible moves by the European Central Bank are also underpinning markets.

Barclays Capital chief technical analyst Jordan Kotick said, however, that stocks are moving beyond the immediate economic worries.

"The market always wants to find the pain trade," he said. "Most people are either neutral bearish or really bearish. The most painful trade would be a higher stock market because nobody has it," he said.

After 3 Years It’s Clear, Investors Are Chasing ETF Losers!
Money chases performance. Or at least, that's how it used to be on Wall Street. ETF pro Nick Colas, the chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, recently crunched some numbers on ETF performance versus fund flows, and the results are truly surprising.

"I fully expected that the old adage on Wall Street that money will chase performance to be in place here, and it was just the opposite," says Colas. "The names that did the best didn't have very much in terms of new flows, the names that did the worst had tremendously strong flows."

Based on the average three-year performance, the top 30 products returned 142% with fund flows + $5.6 billion. The bottom 30 products returned -83% with fund flows + $14.3 billion over the 36-month period.

"When we look at the top 30 and bottom 30 we get a lot of leveraged ETFs, the doubles and the triples," says Colas. "And folks buy the doubles and triples because they're worried about downside scenarios. So they'll buy the bearish doubles, the bearish triples, and that's why those names continue to have relevance even though their absolute performance over three years is very poor, down 85 to 90%."

That is pretty clear evidence that the money is chasing losers. So what can we all learn?

Colas says the first lesson is to do your homework. If you get a tip about an ETF, take the time to learn what it's really all about -- Does it track an index? Does it track commodities prices? Is it leveraged?

"The second [lesson] is look at how much money is still going into negatively oriented ETFs," he says. "It's a real signal and a real sense that investors are still worried about the market, even three years into a bull market rally, we're still worried about what might happen."

Gary Shilling: Everyone’s Still Wrong About Bonds, but They’re a Great Investment
It's hard to find anything in investing that everyone agrees on, but one thing almost everyone agrees on right now is the theory that bonds are terrible investment because interest rates are about to soar.

In fact, over the past several years, a parade of respectable economists and strategists have made the seemingly obvious observation that "interest rates have nowhere to go but up," suggesting that anyone who is dumb enough to buy bonds will get killed.

And, so far, they've all been wrong.

Next for Markets: Break Out or Break Down?
CNBC's Fast Money traders don't agree on much but lately they all seem to agree on one thing - the stock market is at an inflection point.

But will stocks break out or break down?

Trader Stephanie Link, director of research at TheStreet, is optimistic. She believes earnings results confirm the message telegraphed by the latest housing data, retail sales numbers and more. And that is, the economy is growing - albeit slowly.

Trader Guy Adami, managing director of, isn't so sure.

He says for quite some time the market has been trading very technically and that matters most. The level to watch on the S&P (^GSPC), he says is 1425 - the 2012 high. "If the market fails to break above 1425 - technicians will say it's a double top - and I can see even a little bad news triggering a sell-off."

Trader Simon Baker, CEO at Baker Avenue Asset Management, thinks the scenario laid out above is, in fact, the one that's most likely. "It's time to take money off the table," he says. "We're at the top of the range - and it looks to me like the market is about to fail."

Do Equity Markets Need a Reality Check?
Stock markets from New York to Tokyo have seen some stellar gains this week amid hopes of further monetary easing globally, but analysts say there's one thing that investors appear to be forgetting: economic growth remains weak and is likely to remain so for some time.

Expectations for monetary easing have lifted equity markets out of the doldrums, but the problem analysts say, is that it is difficult to assess what impact the stimulus measures will have on economic growth since many central banks have to resort to unconventional policy measures such as large-scale bond purchases as interest rates are already at record lows.

For instance, key U.S. lending rates are in a target range of zero to 0.25 percent, while the Bank of Japan on Thursday left its benchmark policy rate in a range of zero to 0.1 percent.

The IMF last month cut its forecast for global growth for 2013 to 3.9 percent from a previous projection of 4.1 percent.

Vasu Menon, Vice President, Wealth Management at OCBC Bank in Singapore, told CNBC that while he was positive on equity markets in the short term, investors should expect volatility in the medium-term.

"Don't throw all your money into markets just because things are looking good right now. We continue to tell investors to drip feed into the market over the next six to nine months," he said.

"You don't want to stay out of the market completely. But if you are waiting for blue skies, it's not going to happen. The problems in the U.S. and Europe are very deep seated," Menon added.

Wall Street Week Ahead: Bulls, bears and wallflowers
The S&P 500 is up 12 percent so far this year. Through July, it had its best first seven months since 2003 and its second- best seven-month run since 1998. That sounds like a bull market.

But there is clearly a disconnect between the way markets have performed and the high level of caution among many investors. That is mainly due to the perception that things have the potential to go horribly wrong - incredibly fast.

The danger for investors is that they focus too much on the potential risks, such as the break-up of the euro zone, and end up getting left on the sidelines when markets move higher as they have done since the start of June, said Doug Cote, chief market strategist at ING Investment Management, in New York.

"We are in a bull market," he said. "The mistake investors have made is too much attention on global risk, and not enough attention on fundamentals that are very resilient."

David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston, says it's an uncomfortable time for many investors, who are caught between missing a rally and getting blindsided by some nasty event that sends markets into a tailspin.

"We have a bit of a pro-cyclical tilt in our sector strategy within U.S. equity markets, largely because the market seems to be positioned so defensively," Zirin said. "We have seen this flood of flows going into defensive safe havens with high yield, and we just think they are very highly priced.

Of course, the market could also be setting itself up for a fall. Betting on what central bankers will and won't do is a risky game.

Saturday, August 4, 2012



【星島日報】自第七世紀以來流傳至今、仍未解開謎團的尼斯湖水怪(Loch Nessie Monster),沉寂了一段時間後,再度成為焦點。一直相信有水怪存在的60歲英國老翁喬治•愛德華茲(George Edwards),花了26年時間,每周60小時苦候、觀察和搜索,聲稱成功拍到一幅「水怪」照片,並交給美國軍方水怪專家進行分析和印證,相信是迄今為止最清晰的尼斯湖「水怪」照片。



2012年8月4日 龍鳳大茶樓 (DBC 數碼大聲台) 鄭經翰, 游清源, 潘啟迪

節目主持: 鄭經翰, 游清源, 潘啟迪,節目版權為「香港數碼廣播公司」所有。

Friday, August 3, 2012

單車凱琳賽成功「復活」 港隊零的突破 李慧詩摘銅








Hot Money Flows Into Equity Stock Market On Speculation

Market moves violently on economy news and ends the week flat. Market is recovering from recent bottom when market drops on European debt crisis and investors are hoping for market crash. At that time, investors lost confidence but learnt not to sell in panic as in previous year's US rating downgrade. Traders successfully dragged down market for a while. But market manipulators did not participate with short selling. Smart investors began to accumulate shares while market was consolidating. Institutional and individual investors remain very cautious and watch market slowly climb on a wall of worry.

Presently, market is near year high from where traders are dumping shares to take profit. Hedge funds also speculate market to fall on various concerns. However, without short selling from market manipulators and panic selling from institutional and individual investors, market gets support from bargain hunting.

As it is observed that market manipulators are no longer selling to accelerate market fall, any market pullback will quickly attract bargain hunters and rebound strongly. As a result, market is back to near year high because market participants are reluctant to sell.

Global capital is growing fast on economic activities. Personal wealth is also expanding but distribution is uneven among the rich and poor. Concentration of wealth not only causes social instability, but also dampens economic growth.

It is maintained a buy on stock market at attractive valuation but market participants confidence decreases when market climbs to higher level. As a result smart investors execute quick trades on market cycles. Individual investors see that the strategy works and allocate some of the cash in the portfolio on speculative trades. Also the threat of market collapse diminishes as market manipulators have not created market panic with short selling in this year even though there are several sell-off events from traders. There are plenty of surplus capital swirling in the market. Wealth asset price will appreciate with increase in money supply and productivity.

Cult of Equity Is Clearly Over: Rosenberg
David Rosenberg, a long-time Wall Street strategist, declared that this generation's obsession with stocks is officially over after equity funds suffered their biggest outflow in two years.

Volume for the equity market has been below-average this year as retail investors failed to embrace stocks as an asset class. Electronic trading by computer programs may account for up to 70 percent of the NYSE daily volume, according to some analysts.

Despite his declaration, Rosenberg doesn't totally discount an investment in funds that put some money in equities.

"For those who are willing to dip some toes into the equity risk pool and get paid a rent while they await the next bull run, hybrids (income equity) took in a solid $586 million of fresh inflow last week," wrote Rosenberg, who made his name for his unusually contrarian positions while economist at Merrill Lynch.

Still, the strategist believes corporate bonds are a much better bet right now from a risk-reward standpoint.

'Paralyzed Plutocrats' Keep Economy Locked Up, Too
"Today our clients are paralyzed by their fear of losing their wealth in these volatile markets," Ermotti told investors and reporters this morning. "As a result they continue to increase their allocation to cash and other safe assets."

One of the hottest corners of the wealth-management business today is gold vaults - hardly an encouraging sign.

The paralyzed plutocracy also threatens consumer spending. The top 5 percent of earners account for more than a third of consumer outlays and their spending is highly discretionary and volatile.

What would it take to lift the wealthy from their paralysis? Basically, a robust stock rally. And for that to happen we need a grand solution in Europe, a decline in unemployment, removal of the fiscal cliff and decrease in government debt.

In other words, don't count on it. The wealthy, rather than leading the recovery, may be dragging it down.

Hedge Fund Titan Plans to Return $2 Billion to Investors
A hedge fund titan has decided to return a large sum of money to investors, a revealing illustration of how dried-up markets, vicious volatility and a paralysis of ideas all borne of the crisis in Europe have been particularly hard on the traders who swing for the fences on currencies, stocks and bonds all over the world.

Louis M. Bacon, who together with Paul Tudor Jones and George Soros has come to define this style of high-stakes macro investing for more than 20 years, said in a letter to his investors on Wednesday that he would be giving back $2 billion, about one quarter of the size his benchmark Moore Global Investment fund.

Name-brand hedge fund investors will from time to time return money during fallow performance stretches, and Mr. Bacon is no different in this regard. But most do it with reluctance. For starters, such a step is costly.

Latest Market Glitch Shows 'Trading Out of Control'
Wednesday morning's stock snafu had a familiar ring to it - mysterious volume in trades that simply could not have been made by a human comes surging out of nowhere, causing brief but acute market mayhem.

By now, many players on trading floors have gotten used to the disruptions that can come from the highly automated new world of high-frequency trading.

Traders, though, have grown weary of the problems and say the high-speed environment has changed the market in a bad way.

While proponents say the rapid trading helps create liquidity and price discovery, regular investors have been fleeing the market, in part due to macro worries and in part because they don't feel they can compete in the automated trading world.

Knight Capital’s Punishment: Free Market Justice at Its Best
Shares of Knight Capital Group are down sharply Thursday morning after the firm announced realized losses of approximately $440 million dollars as the result of erroneous trades entered Wednesday morning. Prior to the announcement analysts had estimated Knight's losses would be as much as $170 million. Knight blames a faulty software installation for the mistake which they claim has been corrected.

The immediate reaction is to fret over yet another blow to the confidence of retail investors. The glitch, which impacted fewer than 150 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange for about 30 minutes is being cited as a reason for would-be market participants to leave equities and the wild west exchanges on which they trade.

Don't trust markets and fear corruption. Knight's mistake and the fallout is, if anything, evidence of what's right about the free market; not a reason to be even more afraid.

Romney’s Economic Plan Would Cut Taxes On The Rich And Raise Them On The Poor
The Tax Policy Center took a close look at Republican nominee Mitt Romney's proposed tax and economic plan and concluded that it would cut taxes for the richest Americans and actually raise them on the poor.

Romney has proposed cutting all tax rates by 20% and eliminating tax deductions, while also capping federal government spending at 20% of GDP.

Romney's plan is designed around the premise that, if only rich investors and corporations had more cash available, they would make investments that would soon produce jobs for the rest of the country.

The flaw in this theory is the belief that the country is suffering from a lack of investment capital. It isn't.

The country's richest investors and companies are awash in capital.

The reason they're not spending and investing more of it, meanwhile, is that they don't think they can invest it productively--because their end customers, average US consumers, are hurting.

Romney's plan seems designed to address one key problem in the U.S. economy--the long-term structural budget deficit--and this certainly does need to be addressed. But the more pressing concern for most Americans is fixing the unemployment problem. And giving the richest Americans more money to spend and invest isn't going to do that. These Americans already have plenty to spend and invest.

TrimTabs CEO Turns 100% Bearish, Warns of ‘Dark, Nasty’ Outlook
Just one week ago, European stocks had their best 1-day advance in over 8 months, celebrating the fact that ECB President Mario Draghi said he'd do "whatever it takes" to keep the Eurozone and its common currency intact. Whether it was a statement of the obvious, a calculated ploy, or a watershed moment of resolve is still being debated, but what is certain is that traders everywhere got a sudden case of the munchies when their appetite for risk came back with a vengeance.

As wonderful as this rally was to most investors, reliance like this on central bankers to solve our problems is just one of the reasons why Charles Biderman, founder & CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research, says he's "100% bearish" right now.

"Basically what I am saying is that the black swan is aloft and ready to pounce and kill the Bernanke put," Biderman says in the attached video. "We could be 200% bearish if I really thought the world would come to an end tomorrow."

Biderman is hardly a perma-bear but has come to the realization that rampant money printing, enormous government debt and deficits, and artificially inflated asset prices have fostered a system that's destined to implode.

History & Technicals Pave the Way for Stocks to Go Higher: Stovall
Mark Twain famously wrote that "history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." And right now, a glance in the rear-view mirror has given strategists like Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at S&P Capital IQ, reason to buy.

"History as well as technicals were telling us that stocks were likely to work their way higher towards the end of the year," Stovall says in the attached video. "We weren't so sure regarding the economic and fundamental data, but now maybe the overall economic picture is a little bit better too," he adds in light of today's better than expected jobs report.

Whether the Fed offers more stimulus or not, Stovall says "the biggest worry on Chairman Bernanke's plate right now is the fiscal cliff." The looming threat of tax increases and automatic budget cuts that are slated to take effect next year could douse any spark of economic growth.