Saturday, April 30, 2011
香港電影與劇集 - 在線觀看
A separate page is created to access videos (香港電影與劇集) posted on this blog. Viewers can use this tab to quickly locate Hong Kong movies or dramas in this blog without searching through the whole archive.
全球最大禮品展在港開幕
星島日報 2011-04-27 (16:09)
全球最大型的禮品展27日起，一連4天在香港會展中心舉行，共吸引來自36個國家和地區的4070家企業參加。
第26屆香港禮品及贈品展由香港貿易發展局和香港出口商會主辦，展覽籌委會主席林健鋒表示，禮品展再創新高的參展商數量，也為4月展覽旺季劃上圓滿句號。
展覽今年新增「綠色禮品」區專門展示各類環保產品，其他展區也不乏含有環保元素且具備新功能的禮品和贈品，例如用再生紙製作的立體ＤＩＹ裝飾紙盒、由豆渣製作的有機蠟燭、附有太陽能手機充電器的手袋等。
林健鋒指，廠商推出環保產品，為產品增值以迎合市場需要，爭取新訂單，而買家也傾向於採購一物多用、符合環保原則的產品。
香港出口商會的數據顯示，禮品是香港主要出口產品之一，去年出口總值超過1557億港元，上升17%。
全球最大型的禮品展27日起，一連4天在香港會展中心舉行，共吸引來自36個國家和地區的4070家企業參加。
第26屆香港禮品及贈品展由香港貿易發展局和香港出口商會主辦，展覽籌委會主席林健鋒表示，禮品展再創新高的參展商數量，也為4月展覽旺季劃上圓滿句號。
展覽今年新增「綠色禮品」區專門展示各類環保產品，其他展區也不乏含有環保元素且具備新功能的禮品和贈品，例如用再生紙製作的立體ＤＩＹ裝飾紙盒、由豆渣製作的有機蠟燭、附有太陽能手機充電器的手袋等。
林健鋒指，廠商推出環保產品，為產品增值以迎合市場需要，爭取新訂單，而買家也傾向於採購一物多用、符合環保原則的產品。
香港出口商會的數據顯示，禮品是香港主要出口產品之一，去年出口總值超過1557億港元，上升17%。
Friday, April 29, 2011
Stocks And Commodities At Year High
Equity stock market continues to climb slowly on thin trading volume. This market scenario is not uncommon since the rally slowed down in early 2010. Individual investors stayed away from equity stock market on fear of double-dip in stock market. The return of individual investors last October fueled the rally again but now the buying halts on appreciable gain. Market sees strong support since investors are holding portfolio for further possible gain. Institutional investors perform sector rotation on the portfolio. Blue chip and high dividend stocks have higher demand as relatively safe investment in this uncertain market while many market participants are waiting for a pullback or even collapse. Hedge funds are busy in the commodities market after stock selling in the beginning of year. There is large amount of capital on the sideline. The suppressed interest rate drives households to divert capital from money markets to asset markets other than equity stock which is an unforgettable experience for many investors. It appears that investors have higher tolerance on the risk of commodities. The speculation on commodity price leads to higher cost of many daily necessities. This in turn results in the soaring of consumer price index, especially in developing countries which have a higher proportion of food and fuel. There is not much pressure from wage inflation in developed countries. As a result, overall inflation remains at acceptable level. As mentioned in earlier posts, individual investors are snapping up real estate properties with cash. Statistics data are coming out to confirm the activities in the last quarter. The buying frenzy of hard assets by well-off investors have spread to diverse kind of valuable assets, including diamonds, collectible arts, antiques, etc. The wealth effect have poured significant wealth into individuals that can catch the train.
The probability of market collapse is unlikely as households have reduced the proportion of equity stock and learned not to sell in a panic. On the other hand, market participants do not have enough confidence and prefer to wait for opportunity to enter market at a much lower level.
With low participation from investors, market becomes more manipulative and sharp movement can be more easily driven by market makers. Investors should mitigate risk appropriately and restrict leveraging, if any, to provide enough buffer in the portfolio for wild market swing.
Some signs of life in housing, credit drought goes on
Four years after U.S. housing prices began to nose-dive, eventually triggering a global financial crisis, signs of life are appearing at the top and the bottom ends of the market.
"People who have decent income are saying, maybe I can trade up, buy a better property," said Bill Hardin, director of the real estate program at Florida International University.
"Some people are even saying, I'm willing to take a loss on the property I'm selling now to get something I couldn't buy during the housing peak."
Realtors, brokers and others in the housing industry report the first bidding wars for expensive homes since the crash.
"There is a surge of confidence among high-end buyers and we're unfortunately short on inventory," said Pamela Liebman, chief executive of New York property firm The Corcoran Group.
At the bottom end, homes are also on the move as investors pay cash for foreclosed properties to rent them out.
Diane Saatchi, senior vice-president at Saunders & Associates Realty which specializes in the Hamptons oceanfront strip favored by Wall Street, said she was seeing a lot of buyers paying in cash for homes worth $10 million.
"There's a pent-up demand on the buy side because people have been waiting for a couple years."
Matt Farrell, managing partner at Urban Real Estate in Chicago, recounted how a buyer with good credit and seeking a loan for a $2 million home was unable to secure a mortgage in time. So the buyer wired cash to pay for it with no loan.
Bargain prices help reduce glut of foreclosures
Low prices are leading investors to snap up foreclosed homes in Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. Those cut-rate sales are reducing prices in the short run. Yet they're also thinning the supply of homes -- clearing the way for higher prices in the long run.
For some buyers, the deals are now too good to pass up. A studio apartment on the Las Vegas strip that cost $500,000 at the height of the housing boom is now selling for roughly one-third that price. Half the homes listed in the Tampa Bay area are selling for less than $100,000, not far from some of Florida's top Gulf Coast beaches.
Most of the current foreclosure sales involve investors: Private equity firms; foreign and out-of-state buyers seeking vacation houses; individual investors hoping to rent out or quickly sell properties for a profit.
Many are scooping up cheap homes with cash, said Andrew Duncan, a Realtor who runs a Keller Williams franchise in Tampa. In March, 35 percent of previously occupied homes sold were bought entirely in cash, according to the National Association of Realtors.
"It's like a feeding frenzy when a home goes on the market now," said Mike Shannon, a Detroit real estate agent who specializes in foreclosures. "We're getting a few dozen offers on some homes in a matter of days."
The thinning supply is due, in part, to a lull in foreclosures. They've dropped more than 56 percent in Tampa and nearly 64 percent in Miami. In those areas, the number of homes receiving an initial foreclosure notice has plummeted.
David Stockman: “Crony Capitalism” Has Killed the Free Market and Democracy
For example, banks - which caused the 2008 economic and financial crisis - are enjoying profits once again as so-called "risk assets" reflate. Meanwhile, well-meaning members of the middle class intent on saving cash continue to get "savaged" (Stockman's word) when they keep money in low-yielding savings accounts and rely on a dollar that continues to lose value.
According to Stockman, the Fed should raise rates immediately and end the possibility of more bailouts.
The Case for Low-End Consumers, a Higher Dollar and a Sideways Fed
While that call to action may have worked well on the battlefield, in an aging bull market that has been partly (or largely -- depending on your point of view) propped up by the Federal Reserve's controversial bond buying program, it's an entirely different story.
In fact, Oppenheimer Asset Management's Brian Belski says that, when it comes to ending QE2, he thinks it won't be such a clear cut, black or white, buy or sell decision, but rather something more nuanced and gradual.
"Bernanke is a data hound," he says in the accompanying video, adding that he sees the Fed entering a period of market assessment followed by an orderly liquidation of its Treasury holdings to yield-hungry buyers.
Dangerous Views of Volatility
A low VIX seems to suggest stocks are on the verge of another epic advance—and they might be. A low VIX might also suggest the market is on the verge of an epic decline—and it might be. After all, VIX is popularly known as the fear gauge, and if it is low it means investors are not afraid, or maybe that they are complacent. We have been bullish in this column for some time, and remain so, regardless of the VIX.
This Bull Market Has Some Fight Left in It: Chartist
It may have taken 10 weeks and three tries, but the S&P 500 has finally broken through resistance at 1,344 and trundled on to a fresh three-year high. To say it's been a smooth journey would be an understatement, but to say the rally is over would be a mistake. At least that's what Chartered Market Technician J.C. Parets of AllStarCharts.com would tell you.
And it's that very sector rotation that Parets says is key to keeping this bull market running. "New highs need new leadership," he says, cautioning that the absence of consumer discretionary (XLY) and retailers (RTH) from the leader board for this leg-up is a bit unsettling.
Still, he says, "we're in the midst of the most powerful bull market in American history," and as long as there's easy money available, the rally will continue. According to Parets, this 26-month old bull market has some fight left to it; step aside or get trampled.
Decision Time for Stocks
The point is that the traditional pattern breakouts and breakdowns have not worked as expected so breakouts should be treated carefully. And on the other side of the equation, so should breakdowns, especially since there are such diverse conditions, from chart patterns to the proposed end of quantitative easing, tugging in different directions.
Bond Titans Differ on Post-QE2 Outlook
Pimco's Bill Gross has been selling Treasurys. BlackRock's Rick Rieder has been buying.
Two of the biggest fund managers in the world are at odds over how U.S. government securities will fare once the Federal Reserve withdraws from the bond market in June, marking the end of its second quantitative-easing program, or QE2. Their disagreement is symptomatic of a larger debate gripping the bond market and the rest of Wall Street: What will happen when the Fed turns off the tap?
The Fed's policy makers this week will likely vow to stick to their plan to end the purchases of Treasurys by the end of June.
But that's where the certainty ends.
One yardstick for the immediate future of Treasury yields after QE2 could be QE1, which included a $1.25 trillion Fed buying spree of mortgage bonds from late 2008 to March 2010.
Will Fed Trigger Bond Sell-Off?
The big question for the bond market now is whether an end to the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) will see a sell off in the bond market that will drive up borrowing costs for the Federal government and American homeowners.
"The US is still not expected to consolidate its budget in the second half of 2011," said Bee who believes the only groups who can step in and buy on a scale that would offset the Fed exiting the market are US households and foreign central banks.
"US Treasuries, in particular, are likely to be chosen in this environment," said Bee who believes the flight to safety will override fears over the credit worthiness of US debt.
"As long as the currencies of key commodity exporters and emerging market countries have a strong link to the US dollar, demand for US Treasuries is likely to remain elevated," he added.
"Furthermore, US household demand for government bonds should pick up. Relatively speaking, the more challenging environment for risky assets puts government bonds in a more attractive light," Bee said.
A Few Stock Plays for Fundamental Investors
As Steven Wright said: "There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot." In the wrong hands, fishing for value stocks can be much the same experience. It takes a steady hand and the right temperament to make it work, and Shinnick's results speak for themselves.
James Altucher: The Dow’s Going to 20,000 But DON’T Buy Stocks
Heading into Friday major averages were up 9 of 11 sessions and hovering near the highest levels since Spring 2008. So you might think Altucher would be ready to declare "victory" and turn cautious. Instead, he is upping the ante on his bullish call, predicting the Dow will hit 20,000 and the S&P will eclipse 2000 before the current rally runs its course.
Bullishness from Altucher is nothing new, as faithful viewers know. But today's call comes with a twist: Even while predicting huge gains ahead, he recommends 99% of investors avoid the stock market.
As discussed in the accompanying video and detailed on his blog, Altucher has a list of Reasons Not to Buy Stocks, which I'll summarize here:
It's really hard and very few people are successful at it. The very best investors in the world can only consistently produce 10% to 15% annual returns, so what hope is there for the rest of us?
The competition is ruthless, relentless and better connected (literally and figuratively) than the rest of us.
It's mostly a scam. In addition to insider trading and other outright frauds, "I would never ever trust any number that comes out on a 10Q, no matter how GAAP compliant it is," he writes. "Enron was GAAP compliant."
Ownership has its privileges. Citing legendary investors like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, Altucher notes "the guys who make real stock market wealth never diversify and never sell" — and they also have 100s of millions of shares in the companies they run and/or founded. "Then there's the other 100 million people who own stocks."
For those "really determined" to ignore Altucher's advice and buy stocks, he recommends buying index funds or closed-end funds, or "wait for another 2008 and buy a large basket of stocks and really ride them -- and you have to really ride them through all the volatility."
The probability of market collapse is unlikely as households have reduced the proportion of equity stock and learned not to sell in a panic. On the other hand, market participants do not have enough confidence and prefer to wait for opportunity to enter market at a much lower level.
With low participation from investors, market becomes more manipulative and sharp movement can be more easily driven by market makers. Investors should mitigate risk appropriately and restrict leveraging, if any, to provide enough buffer in the portfolio for wild market swing.
Some signs of life in housing, credit drought goes on
Four years after U.S. housing prices began to nose-dive, eventually triggering a global financial crisis, signs of life are appearing at the top and the bottom ends of the market.
"People who have decent income are saying, maybe I can trade up, buy a better property," said Bill Hardin, director of the real estate program at Florida International University.
"Some people are even saying, I'm willing to take a loss on the property I'm selling now to get something I couldn't buy during the housing peak."
Realtors, brokers and others in the housing industry report the first bidding wars for expensive homes since the crash.
"There is a surge of confidence among high-end buyers and we're unfortunately short on inventory," said Pamela Liebman, chief executive of New York property firm The Corcoran Group.
At the bottom end, homes are also on the move as investors pay cash for foreclosed properties to rent them out.
Diane Saatchi, senior vice-president at Saunders & Associates Realty which specializes in the Hamptons oceanfront strip favored by Wall Street, said she was seeing a lot of buyers paying in cash for homes worth $10 million.
"There's a pent-up demand on the buy side because people have been waiting for a couple years."
Matt Farrell, managing partner at Urban Real Estate in Chicago, recounted how a buyer with good credit and seeking a loan for a $2 million home was unable to secure a mortgage in time. So the buyer wired cash to pay for it with no loan.
Bargain prices help reduce glut of foreclosures
Low prices are leading investors to snap up foreclosed homes in Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. Those cut-rate sales are reducing prices in the short run. Yet they're also thinning the supply of homes -- clearing the way for higher prices in the long run.
For some buyers, the deals are now too good to pass up. A studio apartment on the Las Vegas strip that cost $500,000 at the height of the housing boom is now selling for roughly one-third that price. Half the homes listed in the Tampa Bay area are selling for less than $100,000, not far from some of Florida's top Gulf Coast beaches.
Most of the current foreclosure sales involve investors: Private equity firms; foreign and out-of-state buyers seeking vacation houses; individual investors hoping to rent out or quickly sell properties for a profit.
Many are scooping up cheap homes with cash, said Andrew Duncan, a Realtor who runs a Keller Williams franchise in Tampa. In March, 35 percent of previously occupied homes sold were bought entirely in cash, according to the National Association of Realtors.
"It's like a feeding frenzy when a home goes on the market now," said Mike Shannon, a Detroit real estate agent who specializes in foreclosures. "We're getting a few dozen offers on some homes in a matter of days."
The thinning supply is due, in part, to a lull in foreclosures. They've dropped more than 56 percent in Tampa and nearly 64 percent in Miami. In those areas, the number of homes receiving an initial foreclosure notice has plummeted.
David Stockman: “Crony Capitalism” Has Killed the Free Market and Democracy
For example, banks - which caused the 2008 economic and financial crisis - are enjoying profits once again as so-called "risk assets" reflate. Meanwhile, well-meaning members of the middle class intent on saving cash continue to get "savaged" (Stockman's word) when they keep money in low-yielding savings accounts and rely on a dollar that continues to lose value.
According to Stockman, the Fed should raise rates immediately and end the possibility of more bailouts.
The Case for Low-End Consumers, a Higher Dollar and a Sideways Fed
While that call to action may have worked well on the battlefield, in an aging bull market that has been partly (or largely -- depending on your point of view) propped up by the Federal Reserve's controversial bond buying program, it's an entirely different story.
In fact, Oppenheimer Asset Management's Brian Belski says that, when it comes to ending QE2, he thinks it won't be such a clear cut, black or white, buy or sell decision, but rather something more nuanced and gradual.
"Bernanke is a data hound," he says in the accompanying video, adding that he sees the Fed entering a period of market assessment followed by an orderly liquidation of its Treasury holdings to yield-hungry buyers.
Dangerous Views of Volatility
A low VIX seems to suggest stocks are on the verge of another epic advance—and they might be. A low VIX might also suggest the market is on the verge of an epic decline—and it might be. After all, VIX is popularly known as the fear gauge, and if it is low it means investors are not afraid, or maybe that they are complacent. We have been bullish in this column for some time, and remain so, regardless of the VIX.
This Bull Market Has Some Fight Left in It: Chartist
It may have taken 10 weeks and three tries, but the S&P 500 has finally broken through resistance at 1,344 and trundled on to a fresh three-year high. To say it's been a smooth journey would be an understatement, but to say the rally is over would be a mistake. At least that's what Chartered Market Technician J.C. Parets of AllStarCharts.com would tell you.
And it's that very sector rotation that Parets says is key to keeping this bull market running. "New highs need new leadership," he says, cautioning that the absence of consumer discretionary (XLY) and retailers (RTH) from the leader board for this leg-up is a bit unsettling.
Still, he says, "we're in the midst of the most powerful bull market in American history," and as long as there's easy money available, the rally will continue. According to Parets, this 26-month old bull market has some fight left to it; step aside or get trampled.
Decision Time for Stocks
The point is that the traditional pattern breakouts and breakdowns have not worked as expected so breakouts should be treated carefully. And on the other side of the equation, so should breakdowns, especially since there are such diverse conditions, from chart patterns to the proposed end of quantitative easing, tugging in different directions.
Bond Titans Differ on Post-QE2 Outlook
Pimco's Bill Gross has been selling Treasurys. BlackRock's Rick Rieder has been buying.
Two of the biggest fund managers in the world are at odds over how U.S. government securities will fare once the Federal Reserve withdraws from the bond market in June, marking the end of its second quantitative-easing program, or QE2. Their disagreement is symptomatic of a larger debate gripping the bond market and the rest of Wall Street: What will happen when the Fed turns off the tap?
The Fed's policy makers this week will likely vow to stick to their plan to end the purchases of Treasurys by the end of June.
But that's where the certainty ends.
One yardstick for the immediate future of Treasury yields after QE2 could be QE1, which included a $1.25 trillion Fed buying spree of mortgage bonds from late 2008 to March 2010.
Will Fed Trigger Bond Sell-Off?
The big question for the bond market now is whether an end to the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) will see a sell off in the bond market that will drive up borrowing costs for the Federal government and American homeowners.
"The US is still not expected to consolidate its budget in the second half of 2011," said Bee who believes the only groups who can step in and buy on a scale that would offset the Fed exiting the market are US households and foreign central banks.
"US Treasuries, in particular, are likely to be chosen in this environment," said Bee who believes the flight to safety will override fears over the credit worthiness of US debt.
"As long as the currencies of key commodity exporters and emerging market countries have a strong link to the US dollar, demand for US Treasuries is likely to remain elevated," he added.
"Furthermore, US household demand for government bonds should pick up. Relatively speaking, the more challenging environment for risky assets puts government bonds in a more attractive light," Bee said.
A Few Stock Plays for Fundamental Investors
As Steven Wright said: "There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot." In the wrong hands, fishing for value stocks can be much the same experience. It takes a steady hand and the right temperament to make it work, and Shinnick's results speak for themselves.
James Altucher: The Dow’s Going to 20,000 But DON’T Buy Stocks
Heading into Friday major averages were up 9 of 11 sessions and hovering near the highest levels since Spring 2008. So you might think Altucher would be ready to declare "victory" and turn cautious. Instead, he is upping the ante on his bullish call, predicting the Dow will hit 20,000 and the S&P will eclipse 2000 before the current rally runs its course.
Bullishness from Altucher is nothing new, as faithful viewers know. But today's call comes with a twist: Even while predicting huge gains ahead, he recommends 99% of investors avoid the stock market.
As discussed in the accompanying video and detailed on his blog, Altucher has a list of Reasons Not to Buy Stocks, which I'll summarize here:
It's really hard and very few people are successful at it. The very best investors in the world can only consistently produce 10% to 15% annual returns, so what hope is there for the rest of us?
The competition is ruthless, relentless and better connected (literally and figuratively) than the rest of us.
It's mostly a scam. In addition to insider trading and other outright frauds, "I would never ever trust any number that comes out on a 10Q, no matter how GAAP compliant it is," he writes. "Enron was GAAP compliant."
Ownership has its privileges. Citing legendary investors like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, Altucher notes "the guys who make real stock market wealth never diversify and never sell" — and they also have 100s of millions of shares in the companies they run and/or founded. "Then there's the other 100 million people who own stocks."
For those "really determined" to ignore Altucher's advice and buy stocks, he recommends buying index funds or closed-end funds, or "wait for another 2008 and buy a large basket of stocks and really ride them -- and you have to really ride them through all the volatility."
Sunday, April 24, 2011
瀕臨絕種動物「長耳跳鼠」
2007年12月10日，英國一群科學家在蒙古戈壁沙漠，第一次拍下一種瀕臨絕種的動物，「長耳跳鼠」的真面目，體型嬌小的長耳跳鼠，耳朵是頭的3倍大，會像袋鼠一樣跳躍前進，模樣非常可愛，被稱為沙漠米老鼠。
學名為 Euchoreutes naso Sclater ，是跳鼠科長耳跳鼠屬中的唯一品種，主要分佈於內地及蒙古戈壁沙漠。
近年隨環境變遷以及農業進入沙漠、非法採礦等，加上人類帶來家貓威脅，牠們的數量急遽下降，是全球 100 種最瀕危滅絕物種。
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Upper Haight Features World’s Coolest Garage Door
A Curbed SF reader sent us the above video of a magical garage door in the Upper Haight.
McMills Construction was working on an investment property on Oak Street, and they were scratching their heads over how to build a garage to enhance the tenant's use of the building.
As we all know, it's nearly impossible to consistently score a decent parking spot in the Upper Haight. The problem, you see, is that the city planning department had recently started enforcing its mandate to limit changes to the character of historic building's front facades-- especially when it came to converting bay windows into garage doors.
Corey McMills, who's got a background in mechanical engineering, thought of an idea to covert the walls of the bay window into door panels that would fold into the garage space to allow cars to enter. The planning department accepted it. McMills Construction teamed up with Beausoleil Architects to help with the details. The result is brilliant.
【超級學校霸王】張衛健 楊采妮
【超級學校霸王】Part 1
【超級學校霸王】Part 2
【超級學校霸王】Part 3
【超級學校霸王】Part 4
【超級學校霸王】Part 5
【超級學校霸王】Part 6
【超級學校霸王】Part 7
【超級學校霸王】Part 8
【超級學校霸王】Part 9
【超級學校霸王】Part 10
【超級學校霸王】Part 11
【超級學校霸王】Part 12
【超級學校霸王】Part 13
【超級學校霸王】Part 2
【超級學校霸王】Part 3
【超級學校霸王】Part 4
【超級學校霸王】Part 5
【超級學校霸王】Part 6
【超級學校霸王】Part 7
【超級學校霸王】Part 8
【超級學校霸王】Part 9
【超級學校霸王】Part 10
【超級學校霸王】Part 11
【超級學校霸王】Part 12
【超級學校霸王】Part 13
【國產凌凌漆】周星馳 袁詠儀
【國產凌凌漆】Part 1
【國產凌凌漆】Part 2
【國產凌凌漆】Part 3
【國產凌凌漆】Part 4
【國產凌凌漆】Part 5
【國產凌凌漆】Part 6
【國產凌凌漆】Part 7
【國產凌凌漆】Part 8
【國產凌凌漆】Part 2
【國產凌凌漆】Part 3
【國產凌凌漆】Part 4
【國產凌凌漆】Part 5
【國產凌凌漆】Part 6
【國產凌凌漆】Part 7
【國產凌凌漆】Part 8
Friday, April 22, 2011
抹去歷史遺蹟 下令者愚不可及
【明報專訊】禁區沙嶺公墓兩塊有歷史價值的墓碑，食環署一度鑲嵌鋼板，遮蓋墓碑原有歷史遺蹟，經網民揭發和本報查詢後，食環署即時拆除鋼板，還原墓碑的本來面目。不過，食環署的解釋語焉不詳，其動機目的，疑竇未消。我們要指出，香港回歸中國，一應安排，最核心精神是尊重歷史、尊重現實，若香港（無論是政府、部門或個人）有一套隱蔽議程，逐步抹去涉及前朝的遺蹟，都是犯下歷史錯誤，牴觸國家處理香港的特殊方針政策，當局有則改之，務須警惕。
沙嶺公墓鋼板墓碑
記者查詢立即還原
沙嶺公墓那兩塊墓碑，是「區域市政總署立石」和「市政事務署立石」，所涉及的區域市政總署和市政事務署，都是港英政府時期的部門，已經不存在。這兩個部門所負責的市政服務，現在屬食環署和康文署的工作範圍，所以，這些部門，名稱雖然不同，其間所貫串市政服務沿革，一脈相承，有關立石是本港市政服務歷史的一部分，殆無異議。
食環署一度以鋼板鑲嵌墓碑，從照片看來，絕非即興之作，鋼板按墓碑形狀剪裁，鑲嵌合度，鋼板上寫上「沙嶺公墓」和「公墓」，刻意仿照原墓碑的字體。所以，這是有意識、有計劃、有組織的刻意改動，以政府部門處事一板一眼，官員按程序辦事的成規看來，鋼板墓碑肯定是一項政策，由食環署執行。
鋼板墓碑經網民揭發，文化評論人陳雲先生撰文狠批（見《明報》4月18日世紀版），本報記者就此事查詢食環署，其後所獲答覆謂，石牌不鏽鋼面於2009年底裝上，署方檢視有關情况後，認為石牌外觀與墳場環境不配合，於本月19日上午（即記者查詢翌日），把兩個石牌回復原貌。但是為何鑲嵌鋼板？為何有此決定？食環署都未回應，含糊其詞之處，使鋼板墓碑事件的緣由，仍屬謎團。
1997年7月1日零時零分，中國國家主席江澤民與英國王儲查理斯在會展中心主持香港政權交接儀式，政府總部同時換上國徽和區徽，升起國旗和區旗，警隊、消防等紀律部隊也在此際換徽號，象徵中國恢復行使香港主權，公權力與港英切割，香港成為中國主權之下的特別行政區。對於這些改動，與其後而來的垃圾桶、圖書館等剷去市政局徽號，屬於行政更換，無引發異議，就算有皇冠的郵筒告別歷史，都被認為理所當然，但是抹去殖民地符號或象徵，基本上到此為止。
記得在回歸過渡期間，曾有頭腦發熱的人，提出香港回歸後要全面「非殖化」，包括改變以歷任港督名字命名街道的名稱，對此，當時北京中央政府頭腦清晰，知道若如此，香港會出現大變、突變，很快就把此議消滅於萌芽狀態，其中時任中共政治局常委、全國政協主席李瑞環的一番話說得最傳神。他大意說，紫砂茶壺貴在茶漬，若把茶漬洗擦得一乾二淨，這把茶壺還有什麼可貴。
李瑞環此說，反映中央政府以「尊重歷史、尊重現實」處理香港問題的總體精神，我們相信，這就是連英國對清朝發動鴉片戰爭時任女王的維多利亞女王銅像，迄今仍然可以矗立在維多利亞公園的原因。沙嶺公墓兩塊墓碑上面的「區域市政總署立石」和「市政事務署立石」，起碼是香港市政服務歷史的一部分，當日下令以鋼板鑲嵌墓碑的官員，肯定偏離了尊重歷史的精神。
食環署專責市政事務，抹去殖民地歷史遺蹟卻是高度敏感政治事務，領導食環署的政務官會自行決定、自把自為地這麼做？熟悉官場文化和運作的人，都會認為不大可能。我們認為，除非食環署受命來自最高層，否則行政長官曾蔭權應該親自過問此事，找出事態緣由，然後明令不得再做這種蠢事；設若此乃政府秘而不宣的隱蔽議程，曾蔭權也要叫停，不要再錯下去。
讓食環署專注市政
勿要它當政治打手
除了鋼板墓碑，個別被解讀為收緊治港尺度的事件，「恰巧」也與食環署有關。例如去年六四前夕，支聯會要在銅鑼灣時代廣場擺放民主女神像，食環署以未領取臨時公衆娛樂場所牌照為由阻撓，由警方協助把展品運走。此乃回歸以來首次，按當時現場部署，目的是要支聯會的活動不能順利進行。
近年，政府就反對活動，都以依法辦事應對，食環署辦事所依據法例，絕少政治成分，我們無證據認定當局看中食環署的非政治性質，利用它收緊對港管治，打壓不同政見人士或做有高度政治含義的舉措，但是食環署涉及「政治事件」，卻是事實。我們提出這一點，希望只是杞人憂天，絕無其事，不則香港就變質了。其實，市政事務繁多，食環署人員都忙不過來，就讓他們專注市政，努力營造一個清潔宜居的香港，放過食環署，使他們免於「政治」困擾吧！
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沙嶺公墓鋼板墓碑
記者查詢立即還原
沙嶺公墓那兩塊墓碑，是「區域市政總署立石」和「市政事務署立石」，所涉及的區域市政總署和市政事務署，都是港英政府時期的部門，已經不存在。這兩個部門所負責的市政服務，現在屬食環署和康文署的工作範圍，所以，這些部門，名稱雖然不同，其間所貫串市政服務沿革，一脈相承，有關立石是本港市政服務歷史的一部分，殆無異議。
食環署一度以鋼板鑲嵌墓碑，從照片看來，絕非即興之作，鋼板按墓碑形狀剪裁，鑲嵌合度，鋼板上寫上「沙嶺公墓」和「公墓」，刻意仿照原墓碑的字體。所以，這是有意識、有計劃、有組織的刻意改動，以政府部門處事一板一眼，官員按程序辦事的成規看來，鋼板墓碑肯定是一項政策，由食環署執行。
鋼板墓碑經網民揭發，文化評論人陳雲先生撰文狠批（見《明報》4月18日世紀版），本報記者就此事查詢食環署，其後所獲答覆謂，石牌不鏽鋼面於2009年底裝上，署方檢視有關情况後，認為石牌外觀與墳場環境不配合，於本月19日上午（即記者查詢翌日），把兩個石牌回復原貌。但是為何鑲嵌鋼板？為何有此決定？食環署都未回應，含糊其詞之處，使鋼板墓碑事件的緣由，仍屬謎團。
1997年7月1日零時零分，中國國家主席江澤民與英國王儲查理斯在會展中心主持香港政權交接儀式，政府總部同時換上國徽和區徽，升起國旗和區旗，警隊、消防等紀律部隊也在此際換徽號，象徵中國恢復行使香港主權，公權力與港英切割，香港成為中國主權之下的特別行政區。對於這些改動，與其後而來的垃圾桶、圖書館等剷去市政局徽號，屬於行政更換，無引發異議，就算有皇冠的郵筒告別歷史，都被認為理所當然，但是抹去殖民地符號或象徵，基本上到此為止。
記得在回歸過渡期間，曾有頭腦發熱的人，提出香港回歸後要全面「非殖化」，包括改變以歷任港督名字命名街道的名稱，對此，當時北京中央政府頭腦清晰，知道若如此，香港會出現大變、突變，很快就把此議消滅於萌芽狀態，其中時任中共政治局常委、全國政協主席李瑞環的一番話說得最傳神。他大意說，紫砂茶壺貴在茶漬，若把茶漬洗擦得一乾二淨，這把茶壺還有什麼可貴。
李瑞環此說，反映中央政府以「尊重歷史、尊重現實」處理香港問題的總體精神，我們相信，這就是連英國對清朝發動鴉片戰爭時任女王的維多利亞女王銅像，迄今仍然可以矗立在維多利亞公園的原因。沙嶺公墓兩塊墓碑上面的「區域市政總署立石」和「市政事務署立石」，起碼是香港市政服務歷史的一部分，當日下令以鋼板鑲嵌墓碑的官員，肯定偏離了尊重歷史的精神。
食環署專責市政事務，抹去殖民地歷史遺蹟卻是高度敏感政治事務，領導食環署的政務官會自行決定、自把自為地這麼做？熟悉官場文化和運作的人，都會認為不大可能。我們認為，除非食環署受命來自最高層，否則行政長官曾蔭權應該親自過問此事，找出事態緣由，然後明令不得再做這種蠢事；設若此乃政府秘而不宣的隱蔽議程，曾蔭權也要叫停，不要再錯下去。
讓食環署專注市政
勿要它當政治打手
除了鋼板墓碑，個別被解讀為收緊治港尺度的事件，「恰巧」也與食環署有關。例如去年六四前夕，支聯會要在銅鑼灣時代廣場擺放民主女神像，食環署以未領取臨時公衆娛樂場所牌照為由阻撓，由警方協助把展品運走。此乃回歸以來首次，按當時現場部署，目的是要支聯會的活動不能順利進行。
近年，政府就反對活動，都以依法辦事應對，食環署辦事所依據法例，絕少政治成分，我們無證據認定當局看中食環署的非政治性質，利用它收緊對港管治，打壓不同政見人士或做有高度政治含義的舉措，但是食環署涉及「政治事件」，卻是事實。我們提出這一點，希望只是杞人憂天，絕無其事，不則香港就變質了。其實，市政事務繁多，食環署人員都忙不過來，就讓他們專注市政，努力營造一個清潔宜居的香港，放過食環署，使他們免於「政治」困擾吧！
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Thursday, April 21, 2011
Investors Halt On Equity Stocks; Pursue Hard Assets
Equity stock market touches year high on upbeat corporate earnings. Although market climbs on a wall of worry, the higher the index the more cautious are the investors who would be benefited with asset appreciation while also worrying about a significant pullback. Market participants learn from experience the destructive power of financial meltdown. Financial stocks are particularly lagging behind broad market in this rally. Technology innovation is the driving force of modern economy. In the recovery, technology companies are growing much faster than companies in other sectors. Many technology stocks are currently at historic high.
Wealth effect and fear of market collapse seems to find an equilibrium in equity stock market. Investors hesitate to take more risk on further gain. On the other hand, investors are piled up with cash from economic activities as well as wealth effect. In a low interest rate environment, investors are pursuing every kind of assets. Equity stock is a liquid asset and is ideal for short term investment. But investors stop buying on anticipation of a selloff but holding existing portfolio for possible gain. On the other hand, investors are more aggressive in other assets, especially commodities. Crude oil and gold price advances on investor buying and trader speculation. Junk bonds see a soaring demand from investors looking for return. Even real estate, source of financial crisis, are being bought up by investors in cash.
The financial crisis results in a significant shrinking of wealth of the whole population. In the recovery, the distribution is not proportional for each individual and the consequence is wealth transfer resulting in concentration of wealth. The most benefited are at the top of the wealth pyramid. This explains that the average people are unhappy with the economic recovery and drag down the pace of recovery. The mass seeks safety in money market and corporations hoarding cash suppress wages. The wealthy elite becomes wealthier through corporate earnings and asset appreciation.
The following articles discuss the impact of the actions taken by the Federal Reserve in order to revive the economy after the financial crisis. The articles describe current scenario of the economy. Many people share similar perception of the economy as the author from the viewpoint of the average individual. However, the large amount of capital flow in the financial market is real wealth, generated by economic activities as well as wealth effect. The Federal Reserve 'Quantitative Easing' aims to provide liquidity which is frozen during the financial meltdown and to avoid collapse of economy due to shrinking economic activities. This results in the rally of asset prices, including equity stocks, commodities, real estate (particularly in emerging markets which are not the source of financial crisis), etc. The prospect of the economy may not be as the author anticipates when economic activities resume at nominal pace driven by technology innovation. There may be challenges ahead such as environmental concern, concentration of wealth, etc.
Voodoo Economics: Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis
Voodoo Economics: Dissecting Quantitative Easing as Monetary Policy
Voodoo Economics: The Subtle Side Effects of Quantitative Easing
Super rich see federal taxes drop dramatically
You'll probably take little consolation in hearing that the super rich pay a lot less taxes than they did a couple of decades ago. And nearly half of U.S. households pay no income taxes at all.
There are so many breaks that 45 percent of U.S. households will pay no federal income tax for 2010, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank.
Schoenberg, who now teaches a business class at Columbia University, said his income is usually "north of half a million a year." But 2009 was a bad year for investments, so his income dropped to a little over $200,000. His federal income tax bill was a little more than $2,000.
"I simply point out to people, `Do you think this is reasonable, that somebody in my circumstances should only be paying 1 percent of their income in tax?'" Schoenberg said.
Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, said he has a solution for rich people who want to pay more in taxes: Write a check to the IRS. There's nothing stopping you.
"There's still time before the filing deadline for them to give Uncle Sam some more money," Hatch said.
Schoenberg said Hatch's suggestion misses the point.
"This voluntary idea clearly represents a mindset that basically pretends there's no such things as collective goods that we produce," Schoenberg said. "Are you going to let people volunteer to build the road system? Are you going to let them volunteer to pay for education?"
Tax Cheats Cost Uncle Sam $3 Trillion; Cost You $2200 in 2010
Tax evasion has cost the U.S. government $3 trillion over the past decade, Callahan says, citing IRS data. "It is a major contributor to budget deficits and the accumulation of national debt since 2001."
For the record, Callahan is not referring to the roughly 45% of (mainly poor) U.S. households who will pay no federal income taxes this year.
That is a "separate situation," he says, suggesting the bulk of tax evasion is being done by wealthy Americans, particularly small business owners like doctors, lawyers and restaurateurs.
Coke and Cheniere Draw in Traders as Commodities Surge
Since the Federal Reserve announced its controversial plan to buy Treasuries to inflate the economy last summer, the materials, energy and commodities sectors have responded dutifully and led the market's recovery. Corn, silver and oil are just a few of the commodities that have seen their prices surge.
Another trend he's watching is the subtle short-term flight to quality that has seen money going into sectors like consumer staples, which he says reflects the belief that "consumers are willing to buy a Coke, but not a car."
Stocks Will Go Higher, but Oil’s Peaked: RBC’s Phil Dow
Never mind the torpedoes, it's full steam ahead for stocks. That's more or less the message from Phil Dow, director of equity strategy at RBC Wealth Management.
Dow says his view is that crude "could go higher by and large," but that his forecasts are based on supply and demand, rather than speculative moves that would be driven by traders.
As for stocks, Dow sees "a pretty stable profit picture." That would be news to the bears, who are expecting profits to continue to slow, from over 30% last year to 15% this year. Dow, who isn't tremendously concerned about ratings downgrades for U.S. debt, thinks 1,380 is more than doable this year for the S&P 500 and is, in fact, probably conservative.
Dow ends near 3-year high and Apple jumps after earnings
Big earnings surprises gave a positive turn to investor sentiment on Wednesday, propelling U.S. stocks to their best day in a month and lifting the Dow industrials to their highest in almost three years.
Why the Federal Reserve Isn't Worried About Inflation Yet
The Fed remains undeterred about the prospect of higher food and energy prices, because it focuses on core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices.
While food and gas prices are probably the most visible sign of higher prices because consumers notice them on a daily or weekly basis, there are other prices that aren't rising as quickly. Prices of some items that are considered more discretionary have fallen. For instance, the CPI's apparel index fell 0.5 percent and March, and the household furnishings index fell 0.1 percent. "When consumers pay more for food and energy products, they cut back on discretionary spending, like spending on furniture, clothing, and recreational activities, which pushes the prices of those goods down," Schreft says.
Fed's Monetary Stimulus Won't Completely End in June
The Fed might be pushing the U.S. economy out of its monetary stimulus wheelchair in June, but the central bank won't likely force it to walk on its own: the Fed will still continue to provide a set of crutches. Even when it ends its $600 billion asset purchase program in a few months, it will likely continue to reinvest its portfolio's maturing assets by buying Treasury securities, which will still provide some support to the economy. So the Fed isn't really exiting yet: its balance sheet will remain static until it ends its reinvestment policy.
So when might the Fed start allowing its balance sheet to naturally shrink through its assets maturing without being replaced? That could be one of the very first steps we see as a part of its exit strategy. This would be a very passive action on the part of the Fed, because the Fed would essentially do nothing and money supply would slowly decline. When the Fed believes the economy is on more solid footing, you might see its reinvestment cease.
The World's Hottest Real-Estate Market?
Look in the window of any real-estate agent here and you think people have gone crazy — and then you realize that the prices are in British pounds, and that to convert to dollars you have to add another 60%.
Half a million pounds ($800,000) for a one-bedroom condo with a small garden on the southern, unfashionable side of the river Thames? Really? And $2 million for a modest two-bedroom condo in Chelsea?
While the rest of Britain grapples with austerity, falling real wages and budget cuts, London real estate — super-prime London real estate, the best of the best — is back in the grip of another mania.
This is just the latest twist to a story that's been running for some time. Gulf sheikhs. Russian oligarchs. Newly rich Indian and Chinese tycoons. London has become a magnate for the international super-rich: a millionaire's playground. Russian money has been flooding in for at least a decade. One hedge-fund manager here told me London property was a "laundromat for Russian money."
To hear people tell it here, this miracle will go on indefinitely. Prices will keep rising skyward. You no longer encounter many bears of London property. Most have given up.
In a rational market, yields are the drivers of capital gains. The price of an asset goes up because the current owners are earning so much money that outsiders want in. The idea that people will keeping bidding up prices of an asset that makes no money is quixotic at best.
Investors drove home sales up 3.7 pct. in March
Investors lifted U.S. home sales last month, plunking down cash to grab cheap homes at risk of foreclosure. But purchases made by first-time homebuyers fell, a troubling sign for the weak housing market.
Many of those purchases are being made by investors, who are targeting cheap properties in areas hit hardest by foreclosures: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa. The trade group's data only takes into account individual investors. It does not include homes sold in bulk at auction or on courthouse steps. Many of the foreclosure sales are likely being picked up en masse by private equity firms.
Many would-be buyers are holding off, worried that home prices haven't bottomed out. Others are having trouble getting mortgages because banks have tightened lending requirements. The average credit score for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae-backed mortgages is now 760, up from 720 in 2007.
"It is unlikely that home prices can recover on a sustained basis until the inventory-to-sales balance improves further and the number of distressed properties is significantly reduced," said Steven A. Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics.
Tech and Bank Stocks on Collision Course
Solid earnings by big tech companies this week ignited technology shares and put concerns about the Japanese earthquake's impact on future earnings squarely behind the market.
The question now is whether the tech rally can finally help lift the moribund financial services sector out of the doldrums or whether persistent weakness in banks and on Wall Street will hobble a U.S. economy that appears ready to run.
With all the institutional, private equity and retail money sitting on the sidelines or still in bond funds waiting for the signal to leap elsewhere, any sign of a rebound in bank lending or renewed activity in weak markets such as securitization would be a huge sign that the bull is alive and economic growth is set to continue.
This is why bank leaders and others in the industry — stand up former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan — are so quick to attack any new regulation as unhelpful and possibly hurtful to bank recoveries. Expect a long summer of battles in Washington over Wall Street reform, with bank stocks hostage to the bitter struggle between those who want to take make the industry safer for consumers and those who just want to return to business pre-Lehman.
Until then, and as long as banks remain weak and investor funds shy away from bank and investment bank stocks, it's difficult to see how we go much further from here in the overall stock market before some sort of financial industry scare ruins the tech coming-out party.
Wealth effect and fear of market collapse seems to find an equilibrium in equity stock market. Investors hesitate to take more risk on further gain. On the other hand, investors are piled up with cash from economic activities as well as wealth effect. In a low interest rate environment, investors are pursuing every kind of assets. Equity stock is a liquid asset and is ideal for short term investment. But investors stop buying on anticipation of a selloff but holding existing portfolio for possible gain. On the other hand, investors are more aggressive in other assets, especially commodities. Crude oil and gold price advances on investor buying and trader speculation. Junk bonds see a soaring demand from investors looking for return. Even real estate, source of financial crisis, are being bought up by investors in cash.
The financial crisis results in a significant shrinking of wealth of the whole population. In the recovery, the distribution is not proportional for each individual and the consequence is wealth transfer resulting in concentration of wealth. The most benefited are at the top of the wealth pyramid. This explains that the average people are unhappy with the economic recovery and drag down the pace of recovery. The mass seeks safety in money market and corporations hoarding cash suppress wages. The wealthy elite becomes wealthier through corporate earnings and asset appreciation.
The following articles discuss the impact of the actions taken by the Federal Reserve in order to revive the economy after the financial crisis. The articles describe current scenario of the economy. Many people share similar perception of the economy as the author from the viewpoint of the average individual. However, the large amount of capital flow in the financial market is real wealth, generated by economic activities as well as wealth effect. The Federal Reserve 'Quantitative Easing' aims to provide liquidity which is frozen during the financial meltdown and to avoid collapse of economy due to shrinking economic activities. This results in the rally of asset prices, including equity stocks, commodities, real estate (particularly in emerging markets which are not the source of financial crisis), etc. The prospect of the economy may not be as the author anticipates when economic activities resume at nominal pace driven by technology innovation. There may be challenges ahead such as environmental concern, concentration of wealth, etc.
Voodoo Economics: Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis
Voodoo Economics: Dissecting Quantitative Easing as Monetary Policy
Voodoo Economics: The Subtle Side Effects of Quantitative Easing
Super rich see federal taxes drop dramatically
You'll probably take little consolation in hearing that the super rich pay a lot less taxes than they did a couple of decades ago. And nearly half of U.S. households pay no income taxes at all.
There are so many breaks that 45 percent of U.S. households will pay no federal income tax for 2010, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank.
Schoenberg, who now teaches a business class at Columbia University, said his income is usually "north of half a million a year." But 2009 was a bad year for investments, so his income dropped to a little over $200,000. His federal income tax bill was a little more than $2,000.
"I simply point out to people, `Do you think this is reasonable, that somebody in my circumstances should only be paying 1 percent of their income in tax?'" Schoenberg said.
Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, said he has a solution for rich people who want to pay more in taxes: Write a check to the IRS. There's nothing stopping you.
"There's still time before the filing deadline for them to give Uncle Sam some more money," Hatch said.
Schoenberg said Hatch's suggestion misses the point.
"This voluntary idea clearly represents a mindset that basically pretends there's no such things as collective goods that we produce," Schoenberg said. "Are you going to let people volunteer to build the road system? Are you going to let them volunteer to pay for education?"
Tax Cheats Cost Uncle Sam $3 Trillion; Cost You $2200 in 2010
Tax evasion has cost the U.S. government $3 trillion over the past decade, Callahan says, citing IRS data. "It is a major contributor to budget deficits and the accumulation of national debt since 2001."
For the record, Callahan is not referring to the roughly 45% of (mainly poor) U.S. households who will pay no federal income taxes this year.
That is a "separate situation," he says, suggesting the bulk of tax evasion is being done by wealthy Americans, particularly small business owners like doctors, lawyers and restaurateurs.
Coke and Cheniere Draw in Traders as Commodities Surge
Since the Federal Reserve announced its controversial plan to buy Treasuries to inflate the economy last summer, the materials, energy and commodities sectors have responded dutifully and led the market's recovery. Corn, silver and oil are just a few of the commodities that have seen their prices surge.
Another trend he's watching is the subtle short-term flight to quality that has seen money going into sectors like consumer staples, which he says reflects the belief that "consumers are willing to buy a Coke, but not a car."
Stocks Will Go Higher, but Oil’s Peaked: RBC’s Phil Dow
Never mind the torpedoes, it's full steam ahead for stocks. That's more or less the message from Phil Dow, director of equity strategy at RBC Wealth Management.
Dow says his view is that crude "could go higher by and large," but that his forecasts are based on supply and demand, rather than speculative moves that would be driven by traders.
As for stocks, Dow sees "a pretty stable profit picture." That would be news to the bears, who are expecting profits to continue to slow, from over 30% last year to 15% this year. Dow, who isn't tremendously concerned about ratings downgrades for U.S. debt, thinks 1,380 is more than doable this year for the S&P 500 and is, in fact, probably conservative.
Dow ends near 3-year high and Apple jumps after earnings
Big earnings surprises gave a positive turn to investor sentiment on Wednesday, propelling U.S. stocks to their best day in a month and lifting the Dow industrials to their highest in almost three years.
Why the Federal Reserve Isn't Worried About Inflation Yet
The Fed remains undeterred about the prospect of higher food and energy prices, because it focuses on core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices.
While food and gas prices are probably the most visible sign of higher prices because consumers notice them on a daily or weekly basis, there are other prices that aren't rising as quickly. Prices of some items that are considered more discretionary have fallen. For instance, the CPI's apparel index fell 0.5 percent and March, and the household furnishings index fell 0.1 percent. "When consumers pay more for food and energy products, they cut back on discretionary spending, like spending on furniture, clothing, and recreational activities, which pushes the prices of those goods down," Schreft says.
Fed's Monetary Stimulus Won't Completely End in June
The Fed might be pushing the U.S. economy out of its monetary stimulus wheelchair in June, but the central bank won't likely force it to walk on its own: the Fed will still continue to provide a set of crutches. Even when it ends its $600 billion asset purchase program in a few months, it will likely continue to reinvest its portfolio's maturing assets by buying Treasury securities, which will still provide some support to the economy. So the Fed isn't really exiting yet: its balance sheet will remain static until it ends its reinvestment policy.
So when might the Fed start allowing its balance sheet to naturally shrink through its assets maturing without being replaced? That could be one of the very first steps we see as a part of its exit strategy. This would be a very passive action on the part of the Fed, because the Fed would essentially do nothing and money supply would slowly decline. When the Fed believes the economy is on more solid footing, you might see its reinvestment cease.
The World's Hottest Real-Estate Market?
Look in the window of any real-estate agent here and you think people have gone crazy — and then you realize that the prices are in British pounds, and that to convert to dollars you have to add another 60%.
Half a million pounds ($800,000) for a one-bedroom condo with a small garden on the southern, unfashionable side of the river Thames? Really? And $2 million for a modest two-bedroom condo in Chelsea?
While the rest of Britain grapples with austerity, falling real wages and budget cuts, London real estate — super-prime London real estate, the best of the best — is back in the grip of another mania.
This is just the latest twist to a story that's been running for some time. Gulf sheikhs. Russian oligarchs. Newly rich Indian and Chinese tycoons. London has become a magnate for the international super-rich: a millionaire's playground. Russian money has been flooding in for at least a decade. One hedge-fund manager here told me London property was a "laundromat for Russian money."
To hear people tell it here, this miracle will go on indefinitely. Prices will keep rising skyward. You no longer encounter many bears of London property. Most have given up.
In a rational market, yields are the drivers of capital gains. The price of an asset goes up because the current owners are earning so much money that outsiders want in. The idea that people will keeping bidding up prices of an asset that makes no money is quixotic at best.
Investors drove home sales up 3.7 pct. in March
Investors lifted U.S. home sales last month, plunking down cash to grab cheap homes at risk of foreclosure. But purchases made by first-time homebuyers fell, a troubling sign for the weak housing market.
Many of those purchases are being made by investors, who are targeting cheap properties in areas hit hardest by foreclosures: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa. The trade group's data only takes into account individual investors. It does not include homes sold in bulk at auction or on courthouse steps. Many of the foreclosure sales are likely being picked up en masse by private equity firms.
Many would-be buyers are holding off, worried that home prices haven't bottomed out. Others are having trouble getting mortgages because banks have tightened lending requirements. The average credit score for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae-backed mortgages is now 760, up from 720 in 2007.
"It is unlikely that home prices can recover on a sustained basis until the inventory-to-sales balance improves further and the number of distressed properties is significantly reduced," said Steven A. Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics.
Tech and Bank Stocks on Collision Course
Solid earnings by big tech companies this week ignited technology shares and put concerns about the Japanese earthquake's impact on future earnings squarely behind the market.
The question now is whether the tech rally can finally help lift the moribund financial services sector out of the doldrums or whether persistent weakness in banks and on Wall Street will hobble a U.S. economy that appears ready to run.
With all the institutional, private equity and retail money sitting on the sidelines or still in bond funds waiting for the signal to leap elsewhere, any sign of a rebound in bank lending or renewed activity in weak markets such as securitization would be a huge sign that the bull is alive and economic growth is set to continue.
This is why bank leaders and others in the industry — stand up former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan — are so quick to attack any new regulation as unhelpful and possibly hurtful to bank recoveries. Expect a long summer of battles in Washington over Wall Street reform, with bank stocks hostage to the bitter struggle between those who want to take make the industry safer for consumers and those who just want to return to business pre-Lehman.
Until then, and as long as banks remain weak and investor funds shy away from bank and investment bank stocks, it's difficult to see how we go much further from here in the overall stock market before some sort of financial industry scare ruins the tech coming-out party.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Investors Preparing For End Of Federal Reserve Bond Buying Program; Seeing More Day Trading Activities
Market retreats on worsening Japan nuclear leak and economic bad news. Institutional investors are performing sector rotation in the portfolio. Hedge funds remain on the sideline of equity stocks but execute quick trades on commodities as well as emerging market and IPO stocks. Individual investors are holding on with existing portfolio and not selling in a panic when market declines. On the other hand, they are not buying aggressively as in last October in anticipation of a pullback for buying opportunity with cash on hand. Some individual investors fully in cash are hoping for a significant drop in market as some people predict. However they are worrying about inflation and frustrating with the low return of money market. It is a trade-off of risk and return, mainly among the middle-class households. The dilemma is that the wealth is not significant enough so that even a low return can generate large amount in absolute monetary term. But the safety of money market is an opportunity cost in comparison with others taking the risk especially in the early stage of rally. As long as these capital are frozen in the money market, equity stocks trading volume will remain stabilized at relatively low level. This alternatively ensures that there will not be panic selling as happened in the financial meltdown.
Some market participants become impatient when the market halts on the rally. As a result, day trading activities increase as investors make better use of the cash on hand. Many market participants expect a sizable pullback. But very few will sell heavily to reduce portfolio holding. Opportunistic traders will take advantage of pullback and take profit on recovery.
Market makers make money on this uncertain environment. Small investors should stick with a consistent investment strategy and not shaken out under violent market turbulence.
Consensus on Forecasts, Underweight
The great expectations game is one all investors are forced to play.
Party Like It's 1937
Just as the U.S. economy is emerging from a severe contraction caused by a credit crisis, there are pressures to tighten both fiscal and monetary policies in order to rein in an excessive budget deficit and stave off nascent inflation.
In 1936, however, sharp rises in income taxes were enacted. Beginning in August of that year, monetary policy was tightened through a doubling of bank reserve requirements to absorb excess reserves that were thought to threaten inflation.
That sounds awfully like what what's in prospect.
Meantime, QE2 has inflated asset prices for those sufficiently well-off to own stocks, as well as prices that ordinary folks pay at the pump and the supermarket, which are excluded from supposedly high-minded notion of core inflation.
It’s Good to Be the King: CEO Pay Up Big 2010, Not So Much For the Average Worker
Life is good at the top of corporate America. CEO pay rose 12% last year, bringing the average compensation to $9.6 million in 2010, based on a report and study done by NY Times. That's definitely a lot of money at a time when middle class wages haven't increased for a generation and unemployment remains near 9%.
Investing with the highest paid CEOs isn't necessarily the best for shareholders. True, leaders like Ford's Mulally, J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon and Apple's Steve Jobs have turned around their firms and lifted the share price; but this is the exception not the rule when it comes to CEO pay. Plus, this kind of payout for the top brass is also not the norm outside the United States, according to a recent Gretchen Morgenson column on CEO pay in The NY Times.
'Dented' Bonds Draw Buyers
A trickle of securities backed by less-than-pristine mortgages are surfacing as investors overcome painful memories of the housing bust in order to pick up a little extra yield.
"Investors are climbing over each other looking for opportunities to invest in higher-yielding assets," said David Spector, president and chief operating officer at PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, which bundled a scratch-and-dent security backed by $373 million of mortgage debt and is looking to do another deal. "Banks will be selling more of their legacy loans."
Mortgage investors and managers like PennyMac buy these loans from banks, then modify some and collate them into a bond. They then sell the bond to raise cash so they can buy more delinquent loans.
Scratch-and-dent deals are sold entirely in the so-called Rule 144a market, making them available only to a select group of sophisticated investors. They also offer substantially more yield than other residential mortgage-backed securities.
This added premium—upwards of 5 percentage points over a market benchmark, compared with about 3 percentage points for other asset-backed deals—is what lures investors looking for higher-yielding assets. Buyers are generally hedge funds and money managers, who are loathe to discuss their investing strategies, industry participants point out.
"Lots of investors are looking to deploy cash," PennyMac's Mr. Spector said.
PIMCO bets against U.S. government debt
The world's largest bond fund began betting against the United States last month by taking short positions on its debt on expectations the nation's shaky finances will drive interest rates higher and imperil its triple-A rating.
Bill Gross, PIMCO's oft-quoted co-chief investment officer, in January warned that "mindless" U.S. deficit spending could result in higher inflation and a weaker dollar.
He has also been raising alarms about a lack of buyers for Treasuries once the Federal Reserve ends its own bond purchase program, also known as quantitative easing, in June.
Firms Tip Scale Back in Favor of Stocks
Chalk up another point for shareholders in the battle of stocks versus bonds.
The activity has forced owners of investment-grade bonds to rethink the security of their holdings. While many are aware of the risk that companies could get taken private in a leveraged buyout— leaving them owners of a heavily indebted, "junk"-rated company— many are starting to factor in the chance they will be hurt by a company's decision to spin off a unit.
Break-ups aren't the only stock-related risk confronting bondholders. Management teams also are borrowing to pay back shareholders directly through stock buybacks or dividends.
As the memory of the financial crisis fades and the economy strengthens, companies are starting to pay more attention to stockholders and less to debt markets. "There's always a point in the cycle when growth is improving and [corporations] go from being conservative and bondholder friendly to becoming more shareholder friendly," said Robert Tipp, chief investment officer for asset manager Prudential Financial Inc.
Some market participants become impatient when the market halts on the rally. As a result, day trading activities increase as investors make better use of the cash on hand. Many market participants expect a sizable pullback. But very few will sell heavily to reduce portfolio holding. Opportunistic traders will take advantage of pullback and take profit on recovery.
Market makers make money on this uncertain environment. Small investors should stick with a consistent investment strategy and not shaken out under violent market turbulence.
Consensus on Forecasts, Underweight
The great expectations game is one all investors are forced to play.
Party Like It's 1937
Just as the U.S. economy is emerging from a severe contraction caused by a credit crisis, there are pressures to tighten both fiscal and monetary policies in order to rein in an excessive budget deficit and stave off nascent inflation.
In 1936, however, sharp rises in income taxes were enacted. Beginning in August of that year, monetary policy was tightened through a doubling of bank reserve requirements to absorb excess reserves that were thought to threaten inflation.
That sounds awfully like what what's in prospect.
Meantime, QE2 has inflated asset prices for those sufficiently well-off to own stocks, as well as prices that ordinary folks pay at the pump and the supermarket, which are excluded from supposedly high-minded notion of core inflation.
It’s Good to Be the King: CEO Pay Up Big 2010, Not So Much For the Average Worker
Life is good at the top of corporate America. CEO pay rose 12% last year, bringing the average compensation to $9.6 million in 2010, based on a report and study done by NY Times. That's definitely a lot of money at a time when middle class wages haven't increased for a generation and unemployment remains near 9%.
Investing with the highest paid CEOs isn't necessarily the best for shareholders. True, leaders like Ford's Mulally, J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon and Apple's Steve Jobs have turned around their firms and lifted the share price; but this is the exception not the rule when it comes to CEO pay. Plus, this kind of payout for the top brass is also not the norm outside the United States, according to a recent Gretchen Morgenson column on CEO pay in The NY Times.
'Dented' Bonds Draw Buyers
A trickle of securities backed by less-than-pristine mortgages are surfacing as investors overcome painful memories of the housing bust in order to pick up a little extra yield.
"Investors are climbing over each other looking for opportunities to invest in higher-yielding assets," said David Spector, president and chief operating officer at PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, which bundled a scratch-and-dent security backed by $373 million of mortgage debt and is looking to do another deal. "Banks will be selling more of their legacy loans."
Mortgage investors and managers like PennyMac buy these loans from banks, then modify some and collate them into a bond. They then sell the bond to raise cash so they can buy more delinquent loans.
Scratch-and-dent deals are sold entirely in the so-called Rule 144a market, making them available only to a select group of sophisticated investors. They also offer substantially more yield than other residential mortgage-backed securities.
This added premium—upwards of 5 percentage points over a market benchmark, compared with about 3 percentage points for other asset-backed deals—is what lures investors looking for higher-yielding assets. Buyers are generally hedge funds and money managers, who are loathe to discuss their investing strategies, industry participants point out.
"Lots of investors are looking to deploy cash," PennyMac's Mr. Spector said.
PIMCO bets against U.S. government debt
The world's largest bond fund began betting against the United States last month by taking short positions on its debt on expectations the nation's shaky finances will drive interest rates higher and imperil its triple-A rating.
Bill Gross, PIMCO's oft-quoted co-chief investment officer, in January warned that "mindless" U.S. deficit spending could result in higher inflation and a weaker dollar.
He has also been raising alarms about a lack of buyers for Treasuries once the Federal Reserve ends its own bond purchase program, also known as quantitative easing, in June.
Firms Tip Scale Back in Favor of Stocks
Chalk up another point for shareholders in the battle of stocks versus bonds.
The activity has forced owners of investment-grade bonds to rethink the security of their holdings. While many are aware of the risk that companies could get taken private in a leveraged buyout— leaving them owners of a heavily indebted, "junk"-rated company— many are starting to factor in the chance they will be hurt by a company's decision to spin off a unit.
Break-ups aren't the only stock-related risk confronting bondholders. Management teams also are borrowing to pay back shareholders directly through stock buybacks or dividends.
As the memory of the financial crisis fades and the economy strengthens, companies are starting to pay more attention to stockholders and less to debt markets. "There's always a point in the cycle when growth is improving and [corporations] go from being conservative and bondholder friendly to becoming more shareholder friendly," said Robert Tipp, chief investment officer for asset manager Prudential Financial Inc.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
美漢提電郵新證 誓取一半股份 facebook再現股權爭議
(星島日報報道)全球最大社交網站facebook的股權再出現司法爭拗，在去年入稟法院聲稱擁有facebook逾五成股權的美國紐約男子切尼亞，提呈一批電郵作為新證據，指facebook創辦人朱克伯格同意將一半股份交給他，以換取一千美元（約七千八百港元）的創業資金。
切尼亞（Paul Ceglia）去年十月入稟紐約地區法院，聲稱他與朱克伯格曾草擬「僱傭」合約，他給朱克伯格一千美元創立名為「The Face Book」的社交網站，以換取網站的一半股份。切尼亞周一修改控告書，提交新電郵證據，顯示他與朱克伯格在○三年七月至○四年七月間曾多次互送電郵，草擬協議，並詳細商討網站發展。
律師認為證據屬實
切尼亞稱電郵顯示，當他與朱克伯格的合作關係在○四年轉差後，朱克伯格企圖令他對facebook的業務失去興趣。此外，朱克伯格也隱瞞facebook的受歡迎程度。控告書表示：「朱克伯格刻意誤導切尼亞，指facebook並不受歡迎，又稱自己太忙不能處理網站，並稱自己已對網站失去興趣，他正在關閉網站。」
全球著名律師行歐華律師事務所（DLA Piper）經過研究後，認為新證據屬實，決定為切尼亞出頭。其中一封可能有殺傷力的電郵，顯示朱克伯格曾向切尼亞寫道：「切尼亞，我有頗嚴重的問題與你商討，根據我們的合約，我欠你超過三成股份作為延遲（開發網站的）懲罰，我要給你超過八成公司股份。」
不過，切尼亞現在只要求獲得facebook的一半股份。如果他勝訴，根據facebook的估值，他的財富會增加二百五十億美元。
被揭曾捲入詐騙罪
不過，facebook已批評指控屬荒謬，指責切尼亞曾犯罪，現在又提出控告詐騙。切尼亞在一九九七年因藏有迷幻作用的「魔菇」被定罪，二○○九年捲入詐騙案，紐約州政府控告他和妻子開設的木屑顆粒燃料公司收取了客人超過二十萬美元定金後，從未寄運貨物，亦沒有退款。
(綜合報道)
切尼亞（Paul Ceglia）去年十月入稟紐約地區法院，聲稱他與朱克伯格曾草擬「僱傭」合約，他給朱克伯格一千美元創立名為「The Face Book」的社交網站，以換取網站的一半股份。切尼亞周一修改控告書，提交新電郵證據，顯示他與朱克伯格在○三年七月至○四年七月間曾多次互送電郵，草擬協議，並詳細商討網站發展。
律師認為證據屬實
切尼亞稱電郵顯示，當他與朱克伯格的合作關係在○四年轉差後，朱克伯格企圖令他對facebook的業務失去興趣。此外，朱克伯格也隱瞞facebook的受歡迎程度。控告書表示：「朱克伯格刻意誤導切尼亞，指facebook並不受歡迎，又稱自己太忙不能處理網站，並稱自己已對網站失去興趣，他正在關閉網站。」
全球著名律師行歐華律師事務所（DLA Piper）經過研究後，認為新證據屬實，決定為切尼亞出頭。其中一封可能有殺傷力的電郵，顯示朱克伯格曾向切尼亞寫道：「切尼亞，我有頗嚴重的問題與你商討，根據我們的合約，我欠你超過三成股份作為延遲（開發網站的）懲罰，我要給你超過八成公司股份。」
不過，切尼亞現在只要求獲得facebook的一半股份。如果他勝訴，根據facebook的估值，他的財富會增加二百五十億美元。
被揭曾捲入詐騙罪
不過，facebook已批評指控屬荒謬，指責切尼亞曾犯罪，現在又提出控告詐騙。切尼亞在一九九七年因藏有迷幻作用的「魔菇」被定罪，二○○九年捲入詐騙案，紐約州政府控告他和妻子開設的木屑顆粒燃料公司收取了客人超過二十萬美元定金後，從未寄運貨物，亦沒有退款。
(綜合報道)
Friday, April 8, 2011
Asset Market Focus Turns To Commodities
Equity stock market tests to break resistance of year high. Trading volume is thin as market participants are extremely cautious. As mentioned in earlier post, hedge funds started selling the market with oil as hedging. When selling is finished, hedge funds have significantly strengthened the holding in oil. As a consequence, other commodities are also chased by investors who hesitate to buy equity stocks.
Market participants are beginning to plan for the end of Federal Reserve bond-buying program. It is a critical time to prepare for the next investment movement. The speculative trading portfolio will closely watch the activities of market participants and act accordingly to protect the portfolio from market turbulence.
Dividends come roaring back in 2011
The surge in dividends reflects a turning point in the long recovery from the financial meltdown in 2008. After the meltdown many companies slashed or eliminated their dividends and, like many Americans, put their cash in the bank and sat on it. As a result, U.S. companies have amassed a record $940 billion in cash.
But now the economy is recovering, profits are rising and investors are demanding something for their patience. An easy way to keep shareholders happy is to restore or raise dividends.
Robots Rattle Data Guru
New robotic-trading strategies are attempting to hack futures and equities markets — again. The suspicious activity appears unconnected to the October cyberattack on Nasdaq OMX Group now being investigated by the National Security Agency. But there seems to be a new team of trading 'bots abroad — and yes, they're distorting prices.
Automated systems are programmed by mathematicians whose ultra-short-term strategies have radically altered markets. And while there have been flash-crash fixes, they haven't stopped the new invaders, which are orders of magnitude faster.
Dos Hombres: Is the Party Over?
Nesto also observes how thin leadership has gotten in the rally, with materials and energy leaving other sectors well behind, another traditional sign that equities are nearer a short-term top than a breakout.
Why Real Estate Will Hold the Economy Back
Commercial real estate loans and residential housing will continue to be a significant drag on economic performance. Until the mass of overbuilt homes and commercial properties are liquidated, credit will remain tight and unemployment will remain high.
The unfortunate fact remains that credit for most of America is still tight, banks are still trying to repair their balance sheets, and the overlying problem is real estate, the detritus of the Fed’s reckless monetary policy.
The other side to this issue is that businesses, especially small businesses that employ about one-half of the workforce, are not borrowing, contrary to what some of the big banks are reporting.
One may ask why businesses aren’t expanding and borrowing. The obvious answer is that they don’t see sufficient demand to warrant expanding and borrowing. Another less obvious answer is that a lot of small-business owners were negatively impacted by the decline in real estate.
New Fee Shakes Up a Lending Market
The money market has been roiled by a sudden shortage of Treasury securities, another unintended consequence of government involvement in financial markets.
The disappearance of Treasurys in recent days has created a scramble among banks and investors, who depend on a fluid supply for short-term borrowing and lending. It is an unusual event, considering the market is generally awash in Treasurys, with about $9 trillion outstanding.
The lack of supply was so severe on Monday, and some investors so desperate for Treasurys, that they accepted negative yields—effectively paying to lend money to the banks. That is something that has rarely been seen since the financial crisis.
The Fed would likely rather deal with some short-term turmoil in the repo market than work against its own liquidity measures. And part of the Fed's intention with its liquidity pumping programs has been to make it more painful for investors to stay in cash, forcing them to buy riskier assets.
Why you can't get a mortgage
Yep, mortgage interest rates are low, but there's a catch: It doesn't matter how cheap rates are if you can't get a loan.
And these days, only highly qualified borrowers can get financing -- let alone the best rates.
Nearly a quarter of people who apply for loans are turned down, according to the Federal Reserve.
Industry insiders say all these factors have reduced the pool of buyers, lowering demand for homes and hurting prices.
Anthony Sanders, director of Real Estate Entrepreneurship at George Mason University, speculates the tougher credit standards may have stripped as much as 30% of the buyers off the market, compared with normal times.
Josh Brown: Don’t Be a Clown With This Market
Yet stocks continue to creep higher in the face of a classic wall of worry consisting of European unrest, Asian disasters and endless government tampering. If the media seem gloomy, it's most likely because the news has been fairly dire. But big picture concerns are not an investment thesis, as those who've remained on the sidelines for the last 24 months are learning the hard way.
So what's an investor to do if they've missed the rally? That's where discipline comes into play.
The Truth about Hedge Funds
The hedge-fund boys are back in the saddle.
According to Hedgefund.net, investors pumped another $22 billion into hedge funds of all description last month, the fastest rate in well over a year. The industry's back to managing a thumping $2.5 trillion — all but a sixth from the all-time peaks seen in 2008.
Investors clamor to get on board. They'll pay through the nose for the privilege: typically 2% of assets a year, plus 20% of the profits, if any. And they'll consider themselves lucky.
Fed official mulls early end to bond-buying plan
A Federal Reserve official on Friday called on the central bank to consider ending its $600 billion Treasury bond-purchase program, fearing it could lead to higher inflation.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the program has helped the economy by lowering rates on loans and raising prices on stocks. The Fed at its March meeting voted unanimously to stick with the program, even after declaring that the recovery is on "firmer footing." Unemployment has fallen to 8.8 percent, a two-year low.
Fisher argued that the Fed did its job. Continuing to provide economic stimulus through the bond-buying program poses "significant risks" to the economy, he said.
The recent run-up in oil prices has sparked fresh disagreements within the Fed about when it should reverse course and start tightening credit.
Market participants are beginning to plan for the end of Federal Reserve bond-buying program. It is a critical time to prepare for the next investment movement. The speculative trading portfolio will closely watch the activities of market participants and act accordingly to protect the portfolio from market turbulence.
Dividends come roaring back in 2011
The surge in dividends reflects a turning point in the long recovery from the financial meltdown in 2008. After the meltdown many companies slashed or eliminated their dividends and, like many Americans, put their cash in the bank and sat on it. As a result, U.S. companies have amassed a record $940 billion in cash.
But now the economy is recovering, profits are rising and investors are demanding something for their patience. An easy way to keep shareholders happy is to restore or raise dividends.
Robots Rattle Data Guru
New robotic-trading strategies are attempting to hack futures and equities markets — again. The suspicious activity appears unconnected to the October cyberattack on Nasdaq OMX Group now being investigated by the National Security Agency. But there seems to be a new team of trading 'bots abroad — and yes, they're distorting prices.
Automated systems are programmed by mathematicians whose ultra-short-term strategies have radically altered markets. And while there have been flash-crash fixes, they haven't stopped the new invaders, which are orders of magnitude faster.
Dos Hombres: Is the Party Over?
Nesto also observes how thin leadership has gotten in the rally, with materials and energy leaving other sectors well behind, another traditional sign that equities are nearer a short-term top than a breakout.
Why Real Estate Will Hold the Economy Back
Commercial real estate loans and residential housing will continue to be a significant drag on economic performance. Until the mass of overbuilt homes and commercial properties are liquidated, credit will remain tight and unemployment will remain high.
The unfortunate fact remains that credit for most of America is still tight, banks are still trying to repair their balance sheets, and the overlying problem is real estate, the detritus of the Fed’s reckless monetary policy.
The other side to this issue is that businesses, especially small businesses that employ about one-half of the workforce, are not borrowing, contrary to what some of the big banks are reporting.
One may ask why businesses aren’t expanding and borrowing. The obvious answer is that they don’t see sufficient demand to warrant expanding and borrowing. Another less obvious answer is that a lot of small-business owners were negatively impacted by the decline in real estate.
New Fee Shakes Up a Lending Market
The money market has been roiled by a sudden shortage of Treasury securities, another unintended consequence of government involvement in financial markets.
The disappearance of Treasurys in recent days has created a scramble among banks and investors, who depend on a fluid supply for short-term borrowing and lending. It is an unusual event, considering the market is generally awash in Treasurys, with about $9 trillion outstanding.
The lack of supply was so severe on Monday, and some investors so desperate for Treasurys, that they accepted negative yields—effectively paying to lend money to the banks. That is something that has rarely been seen since the financial crisis.
The Fed would likely rather deal with some short-term turmoil in the repo market than work against its own liquidity measures. And part of the Fed's intention with its liquidity pumping programs has been to make it more painful for investors to stay in cash, forcing them to buy riskier assets.
Why you can't get a mortgage
Yep, mortgage interest rates are low, but there's a catch: It doesn't matter how cheap rates are if you can't get a loan.
And these days, only highly qualified borrowers can get financing -- let alone the best rates.
Nearly a quarter of people who apply for loans are turned down, according to the Federal Reserve.
Industry insiders say all these factors have reduced the pool of buyers, lowering demand for homes and hurting prices.
Anthony Sanders, director of Real Estate Entrepreneurship at George Mason University, speculates the tougher credit standards may have stripped as much as 30% of the buyers off the market, compared with normal times.
Josh Brown: Don’t Be a Clown With This Market
Yet stocks continue to creep higher in the face of a classic wall of worry consisting of European unrest, Asian disasters and endless government tampering. If the media seem gloomy, it's most likely because the news has been fairly dire. But big picture concerns are not an investment thesis, as those who've remained on the sidelines for the last 24 months are learning the hard way.
So what's an investor to do if they've missed the rally? That's where discipline comes into play.
The Truth about Hedge Funds
The hedge-fund boys are back in the saddle.
According to Hedgefund.net, investors pumped another $22 billion into hedge funds of all description last month, the fastest rate in well over a year. The industry's back to managing a thumping $2.5 trillion — all but a sixth from the all-time peaks seen in 2008.
Investors clamor to get on board. They'll pay through the nose for the privilege: typically 2% of assets a year, plus 20% of the profits, if any. And they'll consider themselves lucky.
Fed official mulls early end to bond-buying plan
A Federal Reserve official on Friday called on the central bank to consider ending its $600 billion Treasury bond-purchase program, fearing it could lead to higher inflation.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the program has helped the economy by lowering rates on loans and raising prices on stocks. The Fed at its March meeting voted unanimously to stick with the program, even after declaring that the recovery is on "firmer footing." Unemployment has fallen to 8.8 percent, a two-year low.
Fisher argued that the Fed did its job. Continuing to provide economic stimulus through the bond-buying program poses "significant risks" to the economy, he said.
The recent run-up in oil prices has sparked fresh disagreements within the Fed about when it should reverse course and start tightening credit.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
病毒襲百萬網頁 扮微軟警告「中毒」
【明報專訊】一種「注入式」（mass-injection）病毒襲擊全球逾百萬網頁。黑客在網站插入惡意代碼後，使進入中毒網站的瀏覽器轉而開啟一個假網站，它會冒充微軟 指用戶電腦已中毒，需要購買軟件殺毒。最先發現這種病毒的電腦技術安全公司Websense表示，這是迄今同類型病毒影響範圍最大的一個。
Websense將其命名為「LizaMoon」。黑客成功進入伺服器，然後在網站插入惡意代碼，用戶在嘗試打開「毒網」時，會被引轉往另一個網站。在假網站上會出現一個偽冒微軟公司 所謂「Windows Stability Center」（視窗穩定中心）發出的警告，告知用戶他們的電腦存在問題，並呼籲他們購買軟件修補。微軟公司根本沒有名為「Windows Stability Center」的產品。
同類病毒中影響範圍最大
Websense稱，網站看上去是騙子精心設計用來賺錢的，但不確定黑客是否在用戶從假網站購買了軟件之後，將惡意軟件裝入用戶的電腦，亦不清楚這次襲擊是否與盜用身分有關。
目前受影響的大部分都是些較小的網站，一些包含在蘋果iTunes上供下載的podcast信息的第三方網站亦有中招。不過，Websense安全研究高級經理朗諾（Patrik Runald） 稱，並無證據顯示一些較多人到訪的企業或政府網站中招。
路透社/法新社
Websense將其命名為「LizaMoon」。黑客成功進入伺服器，然後在網站插入惡意代碼，用戶在嘗試打開「毒網」時，會被引轉往另一個網站。在假網站上會出現一個偽冒微軟公司 所謂「Windows Stability Center」（視窗穩定中心）發出的警告，告知用戶他們的電腦存在問題，並呼籲他們購買軟件修補。微軟公司根本沒有名為「Windows Stability Center」的產品。
同類病毒中影響範圍最大
Websense稱，網站看上去是騙子精心設計用來賺錢的，但不確定黑客是否在用戶從假網站購買了軟件之後，將惡意軟件裝入用戶的電腦，亦不清楚這次襲擊是否與盜用身分有關。
目前受影響的大部分都是些較小的網站，一些包含在蘋果iTunes上供下載的podcast信息的第三方網站亦有中招。不過，Websense安全研究高級經理朗諾（Patrik Runald） 稱，並無證據顯示一些較多人到訪的企業或政府網站中招。
路透社/法新社
Friday, April 1, 2011
Market Approaches Year High In Thin Trading
Equity stock market continues to recover towards the level before Japan earthquake. Although hedge fund selling is finished, individual investors lose interest in buying stock again. Those individual investors who entered market early last October either have realized profit before the earthquake or are starting to take profit recently on the bounce back. Institutional investors take the turn to propel the rally. They have a relatively high cash proportion. Since the overall performance is lagging behind broad market with too much cash, they seek to increase the portfolio return with riskier assets such as equity stocks. Some individual investors with too much cash holding turn to real estate investment which is hardly accessible to small investors under current tight credit requirement by banks. Although market participants have ample supply of capital, investors are cautiously waiting for a dip to re-enter market or holding the portfolio until the end of the bond buying program ending in June to plan for next movement. Many market participants missed the opportunity in the recent crisis because market did not drop hard as expected (much less than the flash crash last May) and the bounce back climbed the wall of worry.
As the bounce back continues, market is likely to reach year high. The scenario is similar to last year when market climbs the wall of worry by institutional investors buying. Individual investors react to the recent market drop similarly as before, switching the portfolio to money market and waiting on the side line.
Large Caps, Tech Stocks Are the Play Now: Fund Manager Jordan
"You've got to stick with companies that are selling something that people can't do without," he says. He loves technology right now, particularly anything to do with the smartphone or tablet PC. He says the tablet computer is going to put the notebook out of business -- and not just the iPad but almost everything involved in the space, from smartphones to broadband plays and chipmakers to content providers.
Peter Schiff: U.S. Should Abolish Corporate and Personal Income Taxes
Facing a $1.6 trillion budget deficit, even Congress knows the size of the government debt is unsustainable. However, both parties lack the political to will to act. Republicans talk about cutting government spending, though the record shows they are no more fiscally prudent than Democrats. Democrats say "tax the rich," but President Obama agreed to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for all.
The real fix probably lies in a combination of higher taxes and smaller government, says Peter Schiff CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. "We need to reduce the size of government. In fact, if we can cut government enough, then we can reduce taxes," he tells Henry Blodget in the accompanying clip.
GE Paid Less Taxes Than You Last Year, Says The New York Times
Because GE employs an army of tax experts whose job is to figure out how to make sure the company pays not a single penny in taxes more than it has to. And because our byzantine tax laws allow multi-national companies not to pay U.S. taxes on overseas profits, carry forward losses, depreciate equipment, and do dozens of other things, smart companies like GE figure out how to structure themselves to pay the absolute minimum in taxes each year.
Ponzi Scheme Hits Mystery Hedge Funds
The SEC says that from 2006 through last year, Clark raised $47 million from investors for his firm, Impact Cash, an online payday lender making loans to the poor at Chili Palmer rates.
Clark ran his operation out of a small office in Logan, Utah. Population: About 50,000. How impressive is this guy? "He's what we would call 'shiny,'" said the SEC's Melton. "He looks like a salesman. You might buy a snowmobile from him."
For most of the four years, Clark raised money for Impact Cash from the predictable places. He tapped friends and family. He tapped friends of friends. He paid salesmen fees and commissions to find new investors, paying one between $500,000 and $600,000 over four to five years. He travelled to trade shows and payday loan conferences.
But his biggest windfall came right at the end — last September. Through word of mouth, his allegedly amazing returns reached the ears of a few hedge fund managers.
New York. San Francisco. Sophisticated money capitals on the coasts.
This "shiny" guy, with the manner of a snowmobile salesman, promises them pie-in-the-sky returns of about 55% a year. And they plunge in $15 million, says the SEC.
Right at the end. Months before Impact Cash collapses.
Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out
The first quarter comes to a close today with major averages at or near multi-year highs. Expect "substantial" further gains for stocks before a "major top" occurs in late summer, says noted forecaster Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and The Dent Method.
As for the Fed, they are "checkmated," Dent says, suggesting the Ben Bernanke & Co. are damned if they do QE3 -- because the bond market will freak out -- and damned if they don't -- because the economy and financial markets are so dependent on easy money.
Which Is the Real Warren Buffett?
Lobbying of Mass Destruction: The Wall Street Journal reported that Buffett actively lobbied last spring to change a proposed overhaul of derivatives regulation. The change was championed by Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson.
Buffett famously dubbed derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction" in 2008, but that hasn't stopped Berkshire from amassing a huge derivatives portfolio, which Buffett understandably wanted to protect from new regulation.
As the bounce back continues, market is likely to reach year high. The scenario is similar to last year when market climbs the wall of worry by institutional investors buying. Individual investors react to the recent market drop similarly as before, switching the portfolio to money market and waiting on the side line.
Large Caps, Tech Stocks Are the Play Now: Fund Manager Jordan
"You've got to stick with companies that are selling something that people can't do without," he says. He loves technology right now, particularly anything to do with the smartphone or tablet PC. He says the tablet computer is going to put the notebook out of business -- and not just the iPad but almost everything involved in the space, from smartphones to broadband plays and chipmakers to content providers.
Peter Schiff: U.S. Should Abolish Corporate and Personal Income Taxes
Facing a $1.6 trillion budget deficit, even Congress knows the size of the government debt is unsustainable. However, both parties lack the political to will to act. Republicans talk about cutting government spending, though the record shows they are no more fiscally prudent than Democrats. Democrats say "tax the rich," but President Obama agreed to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for all.
The real fix probably lies in a combination of higher taxes and smaller government, says Peter Schiff CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. "We need to reduce the size of government. In fact, if we can cut government enough, then we can reduce taxes," he tells Henry Blodget in the accompanying clip.
GE Paid Less Taxes Than You Last Year, Says The New York Times
Because GE employs an army of tax experts whose job is to figure out how to make sure the company pays not a single penny in taxes more than it has to. And because our byzantine tax laws allow multi-national companies not to pay U.S. taxes on overseas profits, carry forward losses, depreciate equipment, and do dozens of other things, smart companies like GE figure out how to structure themselves to pay the absolute minimum in taxes each year.
Ponzi Scheme Hits Mystery Hedge Funds
The SEC says that from 2006 through last year, Clark raised $47 million from investors for his firm, Impact Cash, an online payday lender making loans to the poor at Chili Palmer rates.
Clark ran his operation out of a small office in Logan, Utah. Population: About 50,000. How impressive is this guy? "He's what we would call 'shiny,'" said the SEC's Melton. "He looks like a salesman. You might buy a snowmobile from him."
For most of the four years, Clark raised money for Impact Cash from the predictable places. He tapped friends and family. He tapped friends of friends. He paid salesmen fees and commissions to find new investors, paying one between $500,000 and $600,000 over four to five years. He travelled to trade shows and payday loan conferences.
But his biggest windfall came right at the end — last September. Through word of mouth, his allegedly amazing returns reached the ears of a few hedge fund managers.
New York. San Francisco. Sophisticated money capitals on the coasts.
This "shiny" guy, with the manner of a snowmobile salesman, promises them pie-in-the-sky returns of about 55% a year. And they plunge in $15 million, says the SEC.
Right at the end. Months before Impact Cash collapses.
Harry Dent: “Major Crash” Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out
The first quarter comes to a close today with major averages at or near multi-year highs. Expect "substantial" further gains for stocks before a "major top" occurs in late summer, says noted forecaster Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and The Dent Method.
As for the Fed, they are "checkmated," Dent says, suggesting the Ben Bernanke & Co. are damned if they do QE3 -- because the bond market will freak out -- and damned if they don't -- because the economy and financial markets are so dependent on easy money.
Which Is the Real Warren Buffett?
Lobbying of Mass Destruction: The Wall Street Journal reported that Buffett actively lobbied last spring to change a proposed overhaul of derivatives regulation. The change was championed by Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson.
Buffett famously dubbed derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction" in 2008, but that hasn't stopped Berkshire from amassing a huge derivatives portfolio, which Buffett understandably wanted to protect from new regulation.
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