Sunday, September 30, 2012

2012年9月29日 事有QK 時窮節乃見 (DBC 數碼大聲台) 黎則奮、陳海琪

節目主持: 黎則奮、陳海琪,節目版權為「香港數碼廣播公司」所有。



Saturday, September 29, 2012

火星發現古老河流證據 (原載《明報》)

【明報專訊】「我在火星找到一條古老河牀的證據,跟地球上的河牀很似。」美國火星探測車「好奇」號前日在Twitter上宣布。美國太空總署(NASA)表示,在「好奇」號上月降落的火星隕石坑發現有古老河牀碎石,證明火星表面曾經有急流。科學家過去也發現過火星曾經有水的證據,但發現河牀碎石乃是首次。

圓石證曾有急流
這些河牀碎石是在蓋爾隕石坑(Gale Crater)北緣與夏普山(Mount Sharp)之間的區域發現。根據「好奇」號傳送回來的圖片,碎石大小介乎沙粒至高爾夫球之間。「好奇」號科學家威廉斯(Rebecca Williams)說,碎石曾被外力運送,但以石頭的大小研判,這種外力不會是風,「我們認為碎石是被一條急流、用水力運送的」。科學家估計水流速度約為每秒3呎(約0.9米),水深在人的腳踝到膝蓋之間。因為不少碎石都是圓形,所以太空總署認為碎石是經過一條叫Peace Vallis的河道運送到蓋爾隕石坑。

另一名「好奇」號科學家迪特里希(William Dietrich)說﹕「這是我們首次真實地看到經水流運送過的火星碎石。」但他不確定這條火星上的河流到底存在了多久,他說﹕「很難知道這條河流了多久,估計可能是幾千至幾百萬年。」

「好奇」號於上月6日降落在蓋爾隕石坑中心山脈的山腳,旨在探索火星過去及現在是否有適宜生命存在的環境。美國加州理工學院科學家格勒青格(John Grotzinger)說﹕「火星是否適宜居住,不是有水無水這麼簡單。當然有水,生物就有可能生存。」

Market Up And Down With No Direction

As equity stock market is buoyed at a level close to all-time high, there are speculation of market direction in both upside or downside movement. In general, market participants have little confidence in stock market. On the other hand, investors have plenty of capital but are worry of the economy, therefore in preference of safe haven of cash or equivalent to other form of wealth assets.

The financial crisis has passed for four years. While many people are still staying away from equity stock market, it has slowly recovered back to the level before the financial meltdown in 2008. During this recovery period, the economic growth is only mild but the stock market rebounds strongly back to pre-crisis level. Therefore many investors does not believe that market can sustain at current level and remain on the sideline with cash.

Stock market capitalization has almost recovered the value before the financial crisis. Economic activities in monetary term shrinks because the population is more cautious on spending due to uncertain economic environment thus fear on income stability. This explains the pessimism of individuals in the financial market which triggers the collapse of financial assets. The confidence in financial assets would not be restored until job growth resumes to the level when economic activities is growing at the rate before the financial crisis.

The financial crisis froze capital liquidity suddenly. The consequence is that both individuals and corporations are now very cautious on financial management and thus constrains economic activities. But as technology and innovation drives the economy on the whole, increase in productivity results in more wealth generation. As a result, although economic activity stalls, it generates wealth at record amount. Unfortunately, income inequality and concentration of wealth leads to uneven distribution. The rich gets richer while the poor gets poorer. Since the wealthy elite constitutes only a small portion of the population, market sentiment remains weak despite record level of global wealth.

Performance of equity stock market is not as expectation of the general public. The demand for equity stocks as wealth asset is weak from households in general. On the other hand, global wealth is growing fast. Surplus capital is flooding the financial system with hot money on speculation. Smart money began to accumulate stocks of large corporations since the bottom of financial meltdown. The buying strategy for long term investment has been successful. As broad market index is approaching to all-time high level, market participants begin to worry of lagging behind with too much cash on hand. The growing amount of cash on investors hand generates upward pressure on large cap stocks with dividend.



Stay Long Stocks and Pray for a Dip: Macke
With a week left in the third quarter the bulls are winning 2012 in a blow-out. The S&P500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up more than 15%, 20% and 10% respectively. The advance is twice the gains foreseen even by the notoriously perma-bull strategist camp which was collectively looking for about a 7% gain when polled last December.

With a week left in the third quarter the bulls are winning 2012 in a blow-out. The S&P500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up more than 15%, 20% and 10% respectively. The advance is twice the gains foreseen even by the notoriously perma-bull strategist camp which was collectively looking for about a 7% gain when polled last December.

The tape has been climbing this wall of worry all year. In the attached clip my Breakout co-Host Matt Nesto says it's time for investors to come back to earth. Ticking through much of the above Nesto says he thinks the "market is weird right now and it's very difficult to invest in."

The world is lousy but not getting much worse. Fund managers are way behind and individuals have money on the sidelines and a growing sense they're missing out in equities. It's not a great bullish thesis but it's the best one we have for now. Investors should be so lucky as to get a dip.

Goldman Sachs: 'Cliff' to Hit Stocks Next Quarter
Goldman chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin writes that the S&P 500 should fall sharply after the election when investors finally realize that there is a possibility that the so-called "fiscal cliff" will not be resolved smoothly. He says the majority of investors expect to see the fiscal cliff avoided in the lame duck session of Congress, but Goldman sees a one-in-three chance that Congress will fail to address the issue.

Kostin expects the S&P 500, starting this week at 1,460, to fall to 1,250 by year end and then rise back to be at 1,350 in 12 months. Meanwhile, many big investors lag the S&P's 18 percent advance year-to-date, with the typical levered investor seeing a return of just about 6.7 percent. Only 8 percent of hedge funds are outperforming the S&P, he notes.

When Stocks Might Hit New All-Time Highs
It's a bit of a puzzle: The U.S. economy is weak, Europe is close to a recession and there are a number of other things that could go terribly wrong. Yet stocks have been inching higher and are getting close to peaks last attained in 2007, before the Great Recession knocked them down.
So Wall Street analysts are starting to ask a daring question: What will it take for stocks to reach and exceed their prior highs?

As always, there's plenty that could disrupt this optimistic scenario. One way Washington could avert the fiscal cliff is to simply put off the day of reckoning on which tax hikes or spending cuts will go into effect. That would provide some breathing room for the economy, which may not be ready for such austerity measures. But it could also lead to further downgrades in the U.S. credit rating if there's no plan to address the mushrooming national debt.

The last time that happened, in the summer of 2011, investors shrugged it off and nothing really changed about America's ability to borrow. That could happen again. But every downgrade will bring the U.S. government closer to a crunch point at which investors may lose confidence in Uncle Sam and start to demand higher rates to loan America money. At some point, higher borrowing costs could be the thing that triggers a bona fide debt crisis.

Then there are the usual worries, such as a Middle East war involving Iran or other countries, and a chaotic breakup of the euro zone. But investors have been digesting those sorts of risks for a while, and have learned to take them in stride. There's always something that can go wrong, but you have to prepare for things going right, too.

Wall Street Is Evil Just Like You, Ex-Trader Explains How to Deal
Wall Street versus Main Street. Us versus Them. The 99% versus the 1%. The "entitled" 47% and the wealthy refusing to pay their "fair share." The 2012 election is about class warfare. Far from trying to bring the two sides together the media and politicians on both sides are fanning the flames, hoping to get another vote with every angry soundbite.

"You have to understand that on the trading floor we incentivize these people to take risk," says Terri Duhon, author of the book How the Trading Floor Really Works. What she means is that traders get paid to take risk with other people's money. That's how banks work. When the risk goes right the client makes money and shareholders cheer. When the risk goes south, it's an entirely different matter.

Honeymoon Over as Markets Brace for Volatility
The message from this week's sell off in global stock markets could not be clearer: the summer time rally, fuelled by optimism over central bank stimulus measures, is now over and it's time to brace for a period of renewed volatility and uncertainty, analysts say.

The U.S. unemployment rate, which stood at 8.1 percent in August, has remained stubbornly high and analysts say a sustained fall in the rate is one thing investors, who appear to be moving to the sidelines, will be watching out for before they move back into equities.

"There's too much uncertainty for investors at the moment so many are sitting and waiting," Jill Cuniff, Portfolio Manager at Edge Asset Management in Hong Kong told CNBC on Tuesday.

Investors Warned: Step Away From the Kool-Aid
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi has said he will do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro and Ben Bernanke's Federal Reserve has gone to infinity and beyond in an attempt to revive the U.S. economy, but a growing number of market watchers are beginning to doubt unconventional monetary policy will actually work.

Analysts at Barclays believe the ECB and Fed are sending investors a "buy risk" signal and believe that even with stocks high, central bank action will be as well received as it was when the Fed and ECB intervened in December 2011.

"Weak but stabilizing global growth, excessive macro pessimism, light positioning, and elevated uncertainty about the policy outlook should give risky assets a boost, possibly beyond Q4," said Guillermo Felices, the head of currency strategy at Barclays said on Thursday.

Tax Cuts for the Wealthiest Don’t Stimulate the Economy: Report
In less than a week Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama will face off in the first of three debates. The focus is domestic policy, and taxes will undoubtedly be a key topic.

President Obama wants to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for all but those earning more than $250,000. Romney wants to extend those tax cuts for all including top earners, cut individual rates another 20%, and eliminate the capital gains tax, making up for all revenue losses by closing loopholes.

Both plans assume that tax cuts help boost economic growth but a new report released by the Congressional Research Service questions the impact of tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. The nonpartisan CRS says cuts in the top marginal tax rate and top capital gains tax rate "do not appear correlated with economic growth."

The report says cutting top tax rates don't appear to boost saving, investment or productivity, or the size of the economic pie, but do seem to increase disparities in income.

S&P 500 to Hit Record High in 2013: Strategist
With three months to go in 2012, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy Savita Subramanian is one of the first on Wall Street to make a call for 2013.

She's forecasting the S&P 500 (.spx) will hit a record high in the year ahead and top out at 1,600. The current all-time high for the S&P 500 was set on October 9 2007 when it hit 1,565.
In a note from the firm, she says: "our 2013 year-end target of 1,600 implies a ten percent return where most of the appreciation can be attributed to earnings growth of seven percent."

Subramanian also worries that consumer spending will drop in the fourth quarter and that the U.S. could be in for another credit downgrade.

Friday, September 28, 2012

DBC吊命 下月定生死 (原載《爽報》)


香港數碼廣播有限公司(DBC)將於下月9日召開股東大會,屆時會為DBC的去留作最後了斷。對於有員工辭職,DBC表示尊重,但本周日不會有新聞報道,而下周一以後的運作亦會受阻滯,但承諾會盡量維持正常服務,希望觀眾見諒。

DBC行政總裁何國輝稱,今天召開的董事會是善意舉動,亦確定了會支付9月所有支出和員工薪金。他亦指,從不把電台當生意看待,認為是社會責任,而自己這兩天均度日如年兼非常掙扎,因公司負面消息不斷,令廣告商卻步,生活癱瘓。

創辦人之一的鄭經翰(大班)則指,一直以來均盡力支撐,現要靠觀眾支持,甚至有聽眾送錢到電台,為此感到非常慚愧,同時又諷指自己「半隻腳踩了入獄」。

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

紀曉風: 大班「被禁制」今突封咪 DBC停播CY被指黑手 (原載《信報》)


昨日起開始進入停播前最後100小時倒數的香港數碼廣播電台(DBC),幾乎肯定已是「1比99」,即只得1%機會,卻是九成九肯定會因以股東黃楚標為首的一方拒絕注資,最終陷入財困,在正式啟播僅一周便即停播收場,同時成為香港史上最短命的電台。

停播在即,DBC創辦人兼台長兼大股東鄭經翰,昨早在其個人節目《風波裡的茶杯》中忽然爆料,直指DBC被政治打壓停播,幕後黑手實乃特首梁振英,而一直被 誤中副車的是中聯辦,「5月尾開董事會佢(黃楚標)仲同意注資,但一個月後CY上場,佢哋即時反面」;據悉,中聯辦曾透過不同人士向「大班」傳達訊息,表示並沒有參與打壓DBC。

至於梁振英,特首辦發言人就指有關說法並無事實根據,不予評論;不過,他打壓電台疑早有前科,特首選舉期間,他就被踢爆早在2002年前,因不滿商台處處跟政府打對台,欲透過行政手段打壓商台,把電台牌照由12年大縮至3年,多年後雖然舊事重提,惜最後也不了了之。 然而,當年在商台續牌風波中淪為「受害人」的「大班」,卻經歷悲劇重演!他當時一度被迫短暫封咪,而最新消息,黃楚標已在昨日傍晚向法庭申請禁制令,禁止大班再談論DBC事件,令大班在今早節目結束後,將再踏上「被封咪」舊路。

DBC停播在即,創辦人兼台長「大班」鄭經翰,昨早就在個人節目《風波裡的茶杯》中忽然投出一枚甚令人震驚的政治炸彈,爆料指原來DBC最終落得停播下場,是因有股東在執行政治任務,然而幕後黑手,卻非一直由他宣之於 口的中聯辦,反而是在上任後民望與誠信同樣破產的特首梁振英。

大班把矛頭直指梁振英,如此嚴重的指控,焉能無的放矢?他在節目中就娓娓道出指控的理據。據大班透露,DBC在今年5月中試播,他跟一眾城中重量級名嘴組成「復仇者聯盟」主持陣營,讓《風波裡的茶杯》重現大氣電波;同月底,DBC 召開董事會,會上黃楚標等人對電台營運方向並無異議,同時更同意各股東一同於6月底前再向電台注資5000萬元,「如果當時係唔滿意,就已經出咗聲啦,唔使之後忽然轉軚」。

據悉,跟中聯辦熟稔的黃楚標當時在董事會中,不單未有對節目風格表示不滿,甚至大讚大班「把炮」,指他擁有很廣的人脈,甚至連中聯辦副主任李剛都支持他開咪。

老紀問過大班,他未有評論是否真有其事,但就直言之前指中聯辦是幕後黑手的說法是誤中副車,「應該唔關中聯辦事」。老紀向政圈打聽,消息人士就透露,其實前特首曾蔭權亦曾向「大班」轉達訊息,表示打壓DBC一事,跟中聯辦主任彭清華(據引述消息,有人曾在電台董事會中不同意DBC聘用某主持人,原因是彭清華不滿意)無關。

至於指控幕後黑手為梁振英,大班就解釋,第一個原因是CY早有打壓電台的前科,更重提在特首選舉期間,梁振英被踢爆在 2002年時,於行政會議中,曾提出在商台續牌申請一事上,利用行政手段把牌照年期由慣常的12年大減至3年,以「回報」商台當時處處狠批董建華政府的作風。就此,梁振英的選舉對手唐英年,當時出任工商及科技局局長,亦為行會成員之一,在選舉論壇中證實有關消息,當時梁振英更指對方誹謗,並稱會對唐英年採取法律行動追究,但最後不了了之,而事件亦被淡忘,「唔關中聯辦事,咁仲有邊個可以在背後發功?梁振英當年不滿我同毓民的節目惹火批評政府,想封殺我,現時十年後捲土重來,手法仲變本加厲,我認為表面證供已經成立,可以提堂」。

大班推測,被打壓跟有人未上任已民望低迷不無關係,「中間成個6月,發生好多事,我哋全部鬧得好勁,好似林鄭月娥講丁權我哋話佢係『吹水娥』,仲有李旺陽事件同CY自己僭建,CY知道自己弱勢,再咁被人鬧法唔掂」。

老紀翻查資料,以史上最低民望當選特首的梁振英,確如經歷「六月飛『傷』」,因為整個6月份,幾乎每星期都被捲入負面新聞。先有6月頭六四鐵漢李旺陽「被自殺」,他處處作迴避不欲回應;及後他為求令「五司十四局」能在7月前上馬,竟無視程序公義,強行想讓架構重組議案在立法會上「打尖」;之後就有林鄭月娥為丁權問題解畫,指自己只是「吹水」;至6月底,梁振英再被揭發不單隱瞞家中有多處僭建,在回應時更大話連篇,令外界嘩然,令他的民望進一步插水。

對於大班的指控,老紀問過特首辦,發言人指有關說法並無事實根據,故不予評論。不過,梁振英最近在回應新界東北發展計劃時,就計劃目的是為促進深港融合,雖然有數之不盡的官方文件證實,但一樣指有關說法沒有事實根據,加上當日最終難以證實的商台續牌事件,梁振英是否幕後黑手,相信只有天知、地知及他本人才知。

不過,大班再淪為「被害人」,卻是必然的事實。大班日前曾發出最後通牒,向黃楚標一方表示願以半價出售己方陣營的四成股權,又或願以半價購回對方的股份,通牒限期為昨日傍晚六時,最終黃楚標一方並無回應,DBC今天下午三時將再「嘗試」召開董事會,商討電台的下場,但大班已打定輸數,直言意興闌珊,早已預計自己會封咪。

其實,黃楚標一方亦非全無「回應」,只是回應方式,是向法庭申請了禁制令,禁止大班再談論DBC事件。大 班向老紀表示,禁制令由黃楚標單方面發出,「傍晚先通知我,我想抗辯連機會都冇」!有關禁制令被安排今早10時開庭處理,大班直言,如禁制令落實,他若違 反隨時換來坐監收場,所以極大可能被迫封口,在今天早上主持可能是自己最後一次的節目後,將會「提早封咪」。據悉,有關禁制令是針對大班早前接受傳媒訪問,其中披露了董事會的會議內容,大班批評:「有人都有接受訪問話我亂噏,既然係亂噏,又使乜出禁制令?」

翻查資料,鄭經翰對於「被封咪」 似乎經驗甚豐,連同今次共有六度封咪紀錄,勢成為香港主持人的歷史。早在1989年時,於商台主持《高談闊論》,因大談六四事件,在曹廣榮的壓力下首度要封咪;然後,在1995年時,與黃毓民等主持亞洲電視節目《龍門陣》大受歡迎,及後因言論惹火,再被迫封咪;及後,他獲俞琤邀請轉投商台主持早晨政論節目《風波裡的茶杯》,獲得「十點前特首」的稱號,但影響力亦令他受到襲擊,在98年時因被斬傷而被迫短暫封咪。

2002年,商台爆出續約風波,大班當時為息事寧人好令商台順利續牌,曾向商台申請休假以自我封咪;至2004年5月,他又以受到壓力為由,宣布暫時休假,期間俞琤突宣布解僱他,令他第五度被迫封咪,而他就轉投政界參選2004年的立法會選舉,更成為當屆九東票王。

對於DBC面臨被停播,鄭經翰又指幕後黑手是特首梁振英,老紀就此向商務及經濟發展局查詢,該局發言人回應,指留意到香港數碼廣播的事件是股東之間的爭拗,政府在這方面沒有角色可扮演。但老紀獲悉,十分詭異的是,昨日下午三時,大班曾親往商經局,當面向局長蘇錦樑交代事件,及至傍晚六時,已收到黃楚標的律師通知,將會申請禁制令禁止他再談DBC事宜。老紀曾聯絡黃楚標,惟至截稿時仍未獲回覆。

2012年9月22日 事有QK 中年危機 (DBC 數碼大聲台) 黎則奮、陳海琪

節目主持: 黎則奮、陳海琪,節目版權為「香港數碼廣播公司」所有。





Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Apple Co-Founder Wants to Be Australian Citizen


Steve Wozniak

Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple, would like to become an Australian citizen, The Australian Financial Review reported on Tuesday, citing the rollout of Australia's national broadband network as one of the reasons for the move.

The idea behind Australia's $38 billion National Broadband Network is to allow all Australians to have high-speed Internet access by 2021.

"It's one of the reasons why I actually like this country and want to become a citizen," the publication reported Wozniak as saying. "I live in a country where we don't have any regulation of telecommunications."

Wozniak told the Australian newspaper that his home in California was not connected to a broadband service, referring to the options available to him as a "monopoly."

Wozniak co-founded Apple in 1976 with Steve Jobs and created the original Apple computer. He left Apple (AAPL), now the world's most valuable listed company, in 1987, and is an author and philanthropist.
According to the Review, Wozniak, who was in Australia last week during the launch of the iPhone 5, told a local radio station that he was "underway to become an Australian citizen."
"It turns out I can keep my American citizenship. I intend to call myself an Australian and feel an Australian, and study the history and become as much of a real citizen here as I can," the newspaper quoted Wozniak as saying.

Wozniak lined up outside the Apple store in Chermside, Brisbane, on Friday to buy the iPhone 5, the Review reported.
Earlier this year, Facebook's (FB) co-founder Eduardo Saverin renounced his U.S. citizenship. Saverin is a citizen of his native country Brazil, but is a permanent resident of Singapore, where he has lived since 2009.