【明報專訊】代表發達世界主要石油消費國的國際能源機構（IEA）突宣布釋出6000萬桶緊急戰略石油儲備，企圖遏抑油價，令西方與石油輸出國組織（OPEC，簡稱油組）裂痕加深，多個油組成員國的代表，抨擊IEA的做法多餘，並暗示可能採取報復措施，透過減產來阻止油價下跌，全球石油消費與出口兩大陣營的油價大戰一觸即發。
戰略儲備「成對付油組武器」
IEA周四在美國牽頭下決定釋出6000萬桶油儲，公開的理由是「填補利比亞戰亂造成的供應缺口」。IEA聲稱，作出這決定前，諮詢過中國等石油消費大國及一些油組成員。但油組海灣成員國一名官員說﹕「這令人震驚，亦沒道理。IEA是單方面行動，我們不認為現在有動用緊急儲備的需要。」
油組暫未作出正式回應，但其秘書長巴德里（Abdullah al-Badri）上周曾指，IEA動用油儲是不專業的做法，他說﹕「戰略儲備應用得其所，而不是用作對付油組的武器。」
歐美疑壓價討好選民
歐美經濟復蘇荊棘滿途，高油價成了改善經濟和就業的絆腳石。委內瑞拉昨便質疑，IEA動用石油儲備，背後涉及一些政府企圖壓低油價討好選民的政治考慮，因法國和美國明年都將舉行大選。
親美的油組最大產油國沙特，本月初應美國要求，在油組會議上提出增產方案，但以伊朗與委內瑞拉為首的反美陣營成功否決增產。IEA與美國當時已暗示，可能動用戰略儲備壓低油價。沙特其後單方面提高產量，但IEA稱沙特增加的供應，難以取代利比亞的優質輕油。
《華爾街日報》指出，IEA動用油儲，可能促成油組內兩大陣營暫時團結槍口對外。傳統上親美的油組海灣成員國陣營，周四便與伊朗迅速站到同一陣線，齊聲指摘IEA。一名海灣國代表說﹕「油價沒並有飈升至150美元，現在沒有理由這樣做。市場並不缺乏供應，科威特與沙特已在增加產量，但買家並不多。IEA只是在陪美國玩政治遊戲。」另一油組代表更稱﹕「若我們看到市場有過多石油供應或油價下跌，油組將展開緊急會議，修正這個問題。」
海灣國斥陪美玩政治遊戲
有油組代表稱，IEA動用油儲，會對產油國造成損害。油組並沒有單一目標油價，但高油價帶來的豐厚收入令成員國有本錢改善民生，如提高就業和增加住屋供應等。沙特近月便在多個鄰國出現反政府浪潮後，推出連串派糖措施安撫民心，涉及開支達1290億美元，美銀美林4月研究指出，沙特需要靠每桶達95美元的油價，才能為這些支出埋單。在IEA作出動用油儲決定後，紐約期油急跌至每桶90美元水平。
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Increased Day Trading Activities
Market fluctuates on news but ends at lower level than last week. Trading volume increases due to more day trading activities. Market makers have profited from the seven consecutive weeks of declining stock values and are currently sitting on pile of cash with some fast volume trading. Day traders take the turn to speculate further market decline. However the strategy is to sell on rebound. There seems to be not much aggressive stock shorting at this moment as compared to the heavy shorting during financial crisis. Individual investors have offloaded the non-core portion of the portfolio, waiting for re-entry point. Market markers refrain from selling and there appears to be absent of catalyst for panic selling. Long term investors find opportunity to accumulate in small quantities. It may need a strong reason to shake out the holding of individual investors who have ridden the wave after the financial crisis. For those who have completely gotten out of equity stock market will stay out for years to come, regardless of market direction. They will remain supporters of the treasuries and bond market for the stable return. This also provides support for a low interest rate on treasuries after the Federal Reserve bond buying program ends in June.
Speculators are looking for quick profit in this turbulent market. This creates the condition for wealth transfer amid a global society with escalating productivity. On the other hand, continual technological innovation increases demand for skillful workers while reduces the need for general labour. Also, industrialization comes along with environmental pollution and habitat destruction. The polarization of workers skill also widens the gap between the groups resulting in concentration of wealth. The symptom is intensified after the financial crisis. Total wealth have already surpassed the peak before financial crisis. The sales of luxury merchandise is soaring. On the other hand, grassroots economy is muddling through in a cloud of uncertainties. Traders use the looming of a fragile employment environment for population at large to manipulate the market.
Where the Rich Are Keeping Their Money
There are more rich people today than ever before, and they are richer than ever before. The number of people with more than $1 million of investable assets jumped 8.3% last year to 10.9 million, their total wealth booming 10% to $42.7 trillion. That surpassed the previous peak in 2007. Recession? What recession?
Why the Rich Get Richer? What’s Worse Than a Depression?
There's also a growing chorus of experts who are warning of our greatest fear, a depression either in the form of hyperinflation like the German Weimar Republic experienced in the 1920s, or a deflationary depression like the Great Depression.
Speculators are looking for quick profit in this turbulent market. This creates the condition for wealth transfer amid a global society with escalating productivity. On the other hand, continual technological innovation increases demand for skillful workers while reduces the need for general labour. Also, industrialization comes along with environmental pollution and habitat destruction. The polarization of workers skill also widens the gap between the groups resulting in concentration of wealth. The symptom is intensified after the financial crisis. Total wealth have already surpassed the peak before financial crisis. The sales of luxury merchandise is soaring. On the other hand, grassroots economy is muddling through in a cloud of uncertainties. Traders use the looming of a fragile employment environment for population at large to manipulate the market.
Where the Rich Are Keeping Their Money
There are more rich people today than ever before, and they are richer than ever before. The number of people with more than $1 million of investable assets jumped 8.3% last year to 10.9 million, their total wealth booming 10% to $42.7 trillion. That surpassed the previous peak in 2007. Recession? What recession?
Why the Rich Get Richer? What’s Worse Than a Depression?
There's also a growing chorus of experts who are warning of our greatest fear, a depression either in the form of hyperinflation like the German Weimar Republic experienced in the 1920s, or a deflationary depression like the Great Depression.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Edith Widder: The Weird and Wonderful World of Bioluminescence
In the deep, dark ocean, many sea creatures make their own light for hunting, mating and self-defense. Bioluminescence expert Edith Widder was one of the first to film this glimmering world. At TED2011, she brings some of her glowing friends onstage
Friday, June 17, 2011
黑洞扯裂恆星 百萬年難得一見
（路透華盛頓16日電）天文學家今天表示，1個巨大黑洞扯裂如太陽大小的1顆恆星，產生奇幻且長久不散的伽馬輻射閃光，景象百萬年難得一見。
美國航空暨太空總署（NASA）的Swift衛星3月28日觀測到這個現象，當時它正在宇宙航行，尋找伽馬輻射閃光，如今閃光已經持續超過2個月。
更奇特的是，這個黑洞位於地球約40億光年外的天龍座，在這顆質量相當於太陽的恆星自投羅網前，黑洞少有動靜，也不太吞噬天體。中央社（翻譯）
美國航空暨太空總署（NASA）的Swift衛星3月28日觀測到這個現象，當時它正在宇宙航行，尋找伽馬輻射閃光，如今閃光已經持續超過2個月。
更奇特的是，這個黑洞位於地球約40億光年外的天龍座，在這顆質量相當於太陽的恆星自投羅網前，黑洞少有動靜，也不太吞噬天體。中央社（翻譯）
Market Makers Stop Selling; Traders Speculate More Decline
Equity stock market wavers on day traders and speculators while market makers finish selling. Upon expiration of derivatives for the month, the bearish positions of market makers are reduced. The next wave will be triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve bond buying program at the end of month. Market makers are now starting to build up new positions for a new round of game. In the first half of the year, when broad market index reaches year high, market participants gradually lose interest in equity stocks and the trading volume shrinks. Many institutions and traders find it more and more difficult to make money from the market. As a result, a force from connected market participants with common interest and strategy is created to manipulate the market for pure financial reward. So far the coalition has been successful to move the market as desired and to take profit. Individual investors lose confidence and trim the portfolio down to core holdings only. Positions acquired in the recent rally are liquidated to realize profit if any. At this moment, individual investors still hold tight on the core positions. But it is uncertain whether panic selling may be triggered on any fear. Institutional investors are also trading on hope to boost earnings. It is tough for small investors to make profit in such a highly manipulative environment from short term trades. However, the longer term outlook of equity stock market is not as pessimistic as perceived on market sentiment. Market makers exploit the herding behavior of investors to make quick profit. Patient investors are sitting on pile of cash and should take advantage of market trough to accumulate positions for long term payoff.
The sell-off may extend longer as individual investors are taking profit or stopping loss and day traders selling on the rebound. Aggressive market participants may even initiate short stock positions ignoring the associated risk. Investors should mitigate risk or wait on the side line until market stabilizes. Speculators find opportunity in this market environment.
5 Reasons to Stop Whining about Stocks
--1. "Eleven years, no profits in stocks." That's a long time to go without making any gains in stocks whatsoever. Not stunningly long, but comparable to the equity slumps of the 1930's and 1970's. Rob has gone back even further than that and found the same data. The market is due for a breakout higher if American history is our guide.
--2. "Huge cash pile in retail and institutional coffers." $2.7 trillion as of May, and it seems unlikely folks were pouring into stocks in June. This is roughly $1 trillion more than there was in cash in 2005. A trillion remains a big number, even by Capitol Hill standards.
--3. "The whole country is playing defensive." Money is pouring into bonds yielding nothing and dumping out of stocks that usually have some upside. Combine the lack of enthusiasm with the huge cash, and you've got kindling loaded up with gasoline. If and when we get a spark, the markets are going to heat up in a hurry.
--4. "Housing affordability." This is the highest it's been in almost 40 years. OK, I rent and have no plans to own a house in this lifetime. Still, you have to admit most houses are cheap relative to a few years ago.
--5. "Valuations of equities today are very attractive." You've heard the stats. Stocks are somewhere in the low teens in terms of trailing and forward P/E. You know the reason why is nobody believes earnings will come within a par-5 of estimates. You should also know the second part might, just might, be wrong. If it is, stocks will go higher without the bears.
Is the Bull Market Over?
TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that, following net outflows of $46.9 billion and $51.9 billion in 2009 and 2010, respectively, this year (through June 8) there has been a net inflow totaling $28.8 billion. So we no longer have the strong wall of worry that the bull market last year was able to climb.
Dow 10,000 and $60 Oil Coming Soon: Futures Trader
"You've got global tightening happening at exactly the wrong time," this Chicago-based former bond trader says, as well as "the removal of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus just when the market needs it most."
Feuerstein's outlooks are for sure the boldest I have heard anywhere, as he predicts "the Dow Industrials will trade decisively below 10,000 again by November 1st(that's just 4 1/2 months away, folks!)." And he's looking for the price of crude oil to tumble to $60 a barrel in the next 12 months.
3 Ways to Trade Stocks in a Volatile Market
Traders should brace for more volatility as June 30 approaches, given the state of confusion many market participants are in.
As a trader, you should always look for profitable opportunities based on probabilities and your own judgment. Here are three strategies to consider using whenever a market-changing event is looming:
1. Stay on the sidelines
If you're new to the stock market, you may want to stay safely on the sidelines when QE2 ends.
2. Fade the gap
Erik Swarts, an independent trader and creator of the research site Market Anthropology, has been actively shorting the market, "and it's been exceptional," he said.
Specifically, he has been "trading the gap," or shorting the market after it gaps up in the first few minutes following the open. "Although I'm skeptical of the market, I'm reluctant to get dogmatic on the bear side," Swarts noted.
Yet this strategy is not for beginners. "If I was inexperienced with this kind of market, I'd probably stay away and paper trade it," Swarts said. "There are too many cross-currents to navigate for the novice trader."
3. Use the options market
You can turn to the options market for protection or profit. For protection, buy protective puts on stocks you already own. If you want to speculate, buy puts on individual stocks or indexes. Although buying puts is less risky than shorting, it's still possible to lose your entire investment if you get the timing and direction wrong.
Even with the market's current weakness fueling pessimism, Baumohl said he believes the major U.S. stock indices will be higher at year-end.
The lesson for traders — rookies and veterans alike — is always be prepared. QE2 is going to create a big wake once it docks. If you use any of the above trading strategies, cut back on share size. Given the likelihood that the market becomes even more volatile this summer, this is not the time to take unnecessary risks.
How Low Can the Market Go?
With the stock market getting whacked yet again, technicals confirm that investors will be facing a tough summer. But even as the economic news gets uglier, now is the perfect time to identify the conditions that will signal an end to the decline in the months ahead.
For the current decline, a combination of support and waning momentum should be a good sign that the market is ready to bottom. This week, many indexes reached support but downside momentum was still strong. Further, some indexes, such as the Nasdaq, are flirting with downside breaks of their respective 200-day moving averages.
In other words, the stage is not yet set for a rebound. But when a bottom does draw near, chances are the market will give us several clues. It pays to know what they are before they happen.
QE3 may not be cure for economy's woes -- The Buzz
Investors will be watching for any clues about what the central bank plans to do now that its controversial bond purchasing program is about to wind down at the end of the month -- just as the economy has hit a rough patch.
The Fed wanted inflation. It got inflation. The $600 billion in new bond purchases through QE2 has been one reason why the dollar has weakened and commodity prices have surged.
Sure, the Fed talks a good game about wanting to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy.
And companies still seem more willing to use all the cash they've got sitting on their balance sheets -- which is earning next to zilch thanks to Fed policies by the way -- on mergers, stock buybacks and dividends. They are not using cash to hire enough workers to make a noticeable dent in the unemployment rate.
And the pathetic job market is also not ringing any inflation alarm bells either. As long as wage growth remains stagnant, inflation in a classic economic textbook sense won't rear its ugly head.
Make no mistake. The Fed probably won't sit idly by if the economy continues to stall. But more bond buying might not be the answer.
At a bare minimum, the Fed will keep interest rates near zero -- where they have been since December 2008 -- for the foreseeable future.
"I think at some point if the data continues to worsen, the Fed will have to do something," Fitzpatrick said. "The Fed may not call it QE3 but there will be more tools to get implemented. It's likely there will be more stimulus."
The Fed may even try new programs that could more directly impact job creation. Garett Jones, an economics professor with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, argued that the Fed could cut, or even outright eliminate, interest payments on excess bank reserves as a way to get financial institutions to lend more.
Jones argues that banks have no financial reason to lend out excess reserves as long as they get paid to sit on that cash. But if banks no longer are rewarded for being misers and actually lend more, particularly to small businesses, that could help stimulate job growth.
Derivatives Disaster Deferred -- For Now
The SEC and CFTC have given themselves a nearly six-month extension to work out how financial reform will be implemented. Whether that's enough is one question. The more basic one, posed by JPM's Dimon, is whether the benefit is worth the cost.
Jim Rogers: Dollar Is Doomed, Own Real Assets
When it comes to the U.S. dollar, Jim Rogers is "incredibly pessimistic about the long term, or even the intermediate term future." He's also long the dollar and feels there are "plenty of reasons that the U.S. dollar could rally."
How can he reconcile the two? Easy: he's a trader.
Where can a non-trader turn? Gold and hard commodities. Rogers regards both as a way to play Asian growth and avoid being stuck in dollars when the inevitable day of reckoning for the dollar arrives. Gold isn't a bubble, he says, despite being likely to end in a bubble blow-off, as so many long-term rallies do.
Shiller: Housing Could Fall Another 25% But Is Harder to Predict Than the Weather
The housing bubble of the early 2000s was "unprecedented" and the "biggest in U.S. history," according to Yale professor Robert Shiller.
As a result, he says "it's very hard to forecast" where housing goes from here, now that it has officially fallen into double-dip territory, based on the S&P Case-Shiller Index.
Housing "might fall [another] 10-25% in the next few years," but forecasting housing today is harder than predicting the weather, Shiller says. "I don't see how anyone can quantify a forecast because it's such an unusual event."
But the idea of the "American Dream" does have merit. "Home ownership pays a dividend in self respect," he says. Indeed, the idea of owning your own home has personal and societal benefits; the problem was the widespread misconception that housing was the path to wealth and financial freedom.
The Real Scandal at Goldman Sachs: The Stock Price
So imagine a bunch of senior Goldman executives hired an expensive portfolio manager and tasked him with creating positive returns. Next, imagine that the manager came back year after year and informed the executives that the best he could do was flat returns — but that he nonetheless deserved a multimillion-dollar payday. They'd laugh.
And yet while Goldman's returns have been subpar, CEO Lloyd Blankfein is getting paid like he's crushing the market. As the Financial Times reported this week, Blankfein "was paid $14m in 2010, more than 15 times his 2009 earnings, as senior bankers collectively shed their hair shirts." That' s just one year's compensation.
This highlights the real problem with Goldman Sachs. Like other investment banks, it isn't run for the benefit of its clients, or for the benefit of public shareholders, despite what its business principles say (#3: "Our goal is to provide superior returns to our shareholders.") No, Goldman and other publicly traded Wall Street firms are really ingenious machines for spinning revenues into compensation for insiders. If that means other stakeholders do poorly while executives make out great, that's just the way it goes.
This is really nothing new. In 1940 Fred Schwed, Jr., published the classic book on how brokers prosper while investors suffer. It was entitled Where Are the Customers' Yachts? Goldman Sachs stockholders might rightly ask Where Are the Shareholders' Yachts? The returns provided to them under Lloyd Blankfein in the past five years aren't enough to buy a ride on the Staten Island ferry.
Will Generous Pay on the Street Hit a Wall?
With Wall Street facing a lower-return future, the battle is on between employees and shareholders. At stake: Who gets the bigger slice of a shrinking pie.
So far, shareholders look to be getting the short end of the stick. Although there is growing angst on Wall Street about pay and job cuts, overall compensation ratios haven't dropped hugely when compared with long-term averages. And they have fallen far less than returns on equity at firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
This wouldn't be such an issue if investors felt returns were likely to soon rebound. That isn't the case and is likely why investors have dragged down shares in both Goldman and Morgan this year. The two now trade at lowly levels of 1.14 times tangible book value for Goldman and 0.89 times for Morgan.
Since the crisis, some have started to see Wall Street as a compensation machine rather than an engine of capitalism. To change that, compensation ratios, which now typically range between 40% and 45%—compared with 45% to 50% before the crisis—may have to fall yet further. Shareholders can't be expected to settle for table scraps forever.
As Profits Wane, Wall Street Braces for New Layoffs
Wall Street plans to get smaller this summer. Faced with weak markets and uncertainty over regulations, many of the biggest firms are preparing for deep cuts in jobs and other costs.
The cutback plans are emerging even as Wall Street firms have mostly recovered from the financial crisis and are reporting substantial profits again. But those profits are not as big as they were before the crisis, and it is expected that in the coming months it will be even more difficult for firms to make money. Worries about debt in Europe and the shape that the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul rules will ultimately take, combined with the usual summer doldrums, are prompting banks to act.
For those firms that depend on trading, it is clear how much the engines of Wall Street have slowed. Return on equity, the amount a firm earns on its common stock outstanding and an important measure of financial performance, has decreased significantly in the years since the credit crisis. Industrywide return on equity was 8.2 percent in 2010, down from 17.5 percent in 2005, according to Nomura.
Pawlenty's super-rich tax cuts
Hey rich folks, Tim Pawlenty wants to cut your taxes. A lot.
Under the terms of his recently revealed economic plan, Americans in the top 20% of earners would see their taxes cut by an average of $23,500, an 8.6 percentage point drop in their tax rate, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
And the top 1% would get an annual average reduction of $261,000, a 14.8 percentage point drop.
Meanwhile, Americans in the lowest 20% of income would see their taxes drop by an average of only $23, a 0.2 percentage point change in their tax rate.
"The revenue yield makes it an implausible tax system to implement," Rosenberg said.
The sell-off may extend longer as individual investors are taking profit or stopping loss and day traders selling on the rebound. Aggressive market participants may even initiate short stock positions ignoring the associated risk. Investors should mitigate risk or wait on the side line until market stabilizes. Speculators find opportunity in this market environment.
5 Reasons to Stop Whining about Stocks
--1. "Eleven years, no profits in stocks." That's a long time to go without making any gains in stocks whatsoever. Not stunningly long, but comparable to the equity slumps of the 1930's and 1970's. Rob has gone back even further than that and found the same data. The market is due for a breakout higher if American history is our guide.
--2. "Huge cash pile in retail and institutional coffers." $2.7 trillion as of May, and it seems unlikely folks were pouring into stocks in June. This is roughly $1 trillion more than there was in cash in 2005. A trillion remains a big number, even by Capitol Hill standards.
--3. "The whole country is playing defensive." Money is pouring into bonds yielding nothing and dumping out of stocks that usually have some upside. Combine the lack of enthusiasm with the huge cash, and you've got kindling loaded up with gasoline. If and when we get a spark, the markets are going to heat up in a hurry.
--4. "Housing affordability." This is the highest it's been in almost 40 years. OK, I rent and have no plans to own a house in this lifetime. Still, you have to admit most houses are cheap relative to a few years ago.
--5. "Valuations of equities today are very attractive." You've heard the stats. Stocks are somewhere in the low teens in terms of trailing and forward P/E. You know the reason why is nobody believes earnings will come within a par-5 of estimates. You should also know the second part might, just might, be wrong. If it is, stocks will go higher without the bears.
Is the Bull Market Over?
TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that, following net outflows of $46.9 billion and $51.9 billion in 2009 and 2010, respectively, this year (through June 8) there has been a net inflow totaling $28.8 billion. So we no longer have the strong wall of worry that the bull market last year was able to climb.
Dow 10,000 and $60 Oil Coming Soon: Futures Trader
"You've got global tightening happening at exactly the wrong time," this Chicago-based former bond trader says, as well as "the removal of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus just when the market needs it most."
Feuerstein's outlooks are for sure the boldest I have heard anywhere, as he predicts "the Dow Industrials will trade decisively below 10,000 again by November 1st(that's just 4 1/2 months away, folks!)." And he's looking for the price of crude oil to tumble to $60 a barrel in the next 12 months.
3 Ways to Trade Stocks in a Volatile Market
Traders should brace for more volatility as June 30 approaches, given the state of confusion many market participants are in.
As a trader, you should always look for profitable opportunities based on probabilities and your own judgment. Here are three strategies to consider using whenever a market-changing event is looming:
1. Stay on the sidelines
If you're new to the stock market, you may want to stay safely on the sidelines when QE2 ends.
2. Fade the gap
Erik Swarts, an independent trader and creator of the research site Market Anthropology, has been actively shorting the market, "and it's been exceptional," he said.
Specifically, he has been "trading the gap," or shorting the market after it gaps up in the first few minutes following the open. "Although I'm skeptical of the market, I'm reluctant to get dogmatic on the bear side," Swarts noted.
Yet this strategy is not for beginners. "If I was inexperienced with this kind of market, I'd probably stay away and paper trade it," Swarts said. "There are too many cross-currents to navigate for the novice trader."
3. Use the options market
You can turn to the options market for protection or profit. For protection, buy protective puts on stocks you already own. If you want to speculate, buy puts on individual stocks or indexes. Although buying puts is less risky than shorting, it's still possible to lose your entire investment if you get the timing and direction wrong.
Even with the market's current weakness fueling pessimism, Baumohl said he believes the major U.S. stock indices will be higher at year-end.
The lesson for traders — rookies and veterans alike — is always be prepared. QE2 is going to create a big wake once it docks. If you use any of the above trading strategies, cut back on share size. Given the likelihood that the market becomes even more volatile this summer, this is not the time to take unnecessary risks.
How Low Can the Market Go?
With the stock market getting whacked yet again, technicals confirm that investors will be facing a tough summer. But even as the economic news gets uglier, now is the perfect time to identify the conditions that will signal an end to the decline in the months ahead.
For the current decline, a combination of support and waning momentum should be a good sign that the market is ready to bottom. This week, many indexes reached support but downside momentum was still strong. Further, some indexes, such as the Nasdaq, are flirting with downside breaks of their respective 200-day moving averages.
In other words, the stage is not yet set for a rebound. But when a bottom does draw near, chances are the market will give us several clues. It pays to know what they are before they happen.
QE3 may not be cure for economy's woes -- The Buzz
Investors will be watching for any clues about what the central bank plans to do now that its controversial bond purchasing program is about to wind down at the end of the month -- just as the economy has hit a rough patch.
The Fed wanted inflation. It got inflation. The $600 billion in new bond purchases through QE2 has been one reason why the dollar has weakened and commodity prices have surged.
Sure, the Fed talks a good game about wanting to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy.
And companies still seem more willing to use all the cash they've got sitting on their balance sheets -- which is earning next to zilch thanks to Fed policies by the way -- on mergers, stock buybacks and dividends. They are not using cash to hire enough workers to make a noticeable dent in the unemployment rate.
And the pathetic job market is also not ringing any inflation alarm bells either. As long as wage growth remains stagnant, inflation in a classic economic textbook sense won't rear its ugly head.
Make no mistake. The Fed probably won't sit idly by if the economy continues to stall. But more bond buying might not be the answer.
At a bare minimum, the Fed will keep interest rates near zero -- where they have been since December 2008 -- for the foreseeable future.
"I think at some point if the data continues to worsen, the Fed will have to do something," Fitzpatrick said. "The Fed may not call it QE3 but there will be more tools to get implemented. It's likely there will be more stimulus."
The Fed may even try new programs that could more directly impact job creation. Garett Jones, an economics professor with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, argued that the Fed could cut, or even outright eliminate, interest payments on excess bank reserves as a way to get financial institutions to lend more.
Jones argues that banks have no financial reason to lend out excess reserves as long as they get paid to sit on that cash. But if banks no longer are rewarded for being misers and actually lend more, particularly to small businesses, that could help stimulate job growth.
Derivatives Disaster Deferred -- For Now
The SEC and CFTC have given themselves a nearly six-month extension to work out how financial reform will be implemented. Whether that's enough is one question. The more basic one, posed by JPM's Dimon, is whether the benefit is worth the cost.
Jim Rogers: Dollar Is Doomed, Own Real Assets
When it comes to the U.S. dollar, Jim Rogers is "incredibly pessimistic about the long term, or even the intermediate term future." He's also long the dollar and feels there are "plenty of reasons that the U.S. dollar could rally."
How can he reconcile the two? Easy: he's a trader.
Where can a non-trader turn? Gold and hard commodities. Rogers regards both as a way to play Asian growth and avoid being stuck in dollars when the inevitable day of reckoning for the dollar arrives. Gold isn't a bubble, he says, despite being likely to end in a bubble blow-off, as so many long-term rallies do.
Shiller: Housing Could Fall Another 25% But Is Harder to Predict Than the Weather
The housing bubble of the early 2000s was "unprecedented" and the "biggest in U.S. history," according to Yale professor Robert Shiller.
As a result, he says "it's very hard to forecast" where housing goes from here, now that it has officially fallen into double-dip territory, based on the S&P Case-Shiller Index.
Housing "might fall [another] 10-25% in the next few years," but forecasting housing today is harder than predicting the weather, Shiller says. "I don't see how anyone can quantify a forecast because it's such an unusual event."
But the idea of the "American Dream" does have merit. "Home ownership pays a dividend in self respect," he says. Indeed, the idea of owning your own home has personal and societal benefits; the problem was the widespread misconception that housing was the path to wealth and financial freedom.
The Real Scandal at Goldman Sachs: The Stock Price
So imagine a bunch of senior Goldman executives hired an expensive portfolio manager and tasked him with creating positive returns. Next, imagine that the manager came back year after year and informed the executives that the best he could do was flat returns — but that he nonetheless deserved a multimillion-dollar payday. They'd laugh.
And yet while Goldman's returns have been subpar, CEO Lloyd Blankfein is getting paid like he's crushing the market. As the Financial Times reported this week, Blankfein "was paid $14m in 2010, more than 15 times his 2009 earnings, as senior bankers collectively shed their hair shirts." That' s just one year's compensation.
This highlights the real problem with Goldman Sachs. Like other investment banks, it isn't run for the benefit of its clients, or for the benefit of public shareholders, despite what its business principles say (#3: "Our goal is to provide superior returns to our shareholders.") No, Goldman and other publicly traded Wall Street firms are really ingenious machines for spinning revenues into compensation for insiders. If that means other stakeholders do poorly while executives make out great, that's just the way it goes.
This is really nothing new. In 1940 Fred Schwed, Jr., published the classic book on how brokers prosper while investors suffer. It was entitled Where Are the Customers' Yachts? Goldman Sachs stockholders might rightly ask Where Are the Shareholders' Yachts? The returns provided to them under Lloyd Blankfein in the past five years aren't enough to buy a ride on the Staten Island ferry.
Will Generous Pay on the Street Hit a Wall?
With Wall Street facing a lower-return future, the battle is on between employees and shareholders. At stake: Who gets the bigger slice of a shrinking pie.
So far, shareholders look to be getting the short end of the stick. Although there is growing angst on Wall Street about pay and job cuts, overall compensation ratios haven't dropped hugely when compared with long-term averages. And they have fallen far less than returns on equity at firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
This wouldn't be such an issue if investors felt returns were likely to soon rebound. That isn't the case and is likely why investors have dragged down shares in both Goldman and Morgan this year. The two now trade at lowly levels of 1.14 times tangible book value for Goldman and 0.89 times for Morgan.
Since the crisis, some have started to see Wall Street as a compensation machine rather than an engine of capitalism. To change that, compensation ratios, which now typically range between 40% and 45%—compared with 45% to 50% before the crisis—may have to fall yet further. Shareholders can't be expected to settle for table scraps forever.
As Profits Wane, Wall Street Braces for New Layoffs
Wall Street plans to get smaller this summer. Faced with weak markets and uncertainty over regulations, many of the biggest firms are preparing for deep cuts in jobs and other costs.
The cutback plans are emerging even as Wall Street firms have mostly recovered from the financial crisis and are reporting substantial profits again. But those profits are not as big as they were before the crisis, and it is expected that in the coming months it will be even more difficult for firms to make money. Worries about debt in Europe and the shape that the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul rules will ultimately take, combined with the usual summer doldrums, are prompting banks to act.
For those firms that depend on trading, it is clear how much the engines of Wall Street have slowed. Return on equity, the amount a firm earns on its common stock outstanding and an important measure of financial performance, has decreased significantly in the years since the credit crisis. Industrywide return on equity was 8.2 percent in 2010, down from 17.5 percent in 2005, according to Nomura.
Pawlenty's super-rich tax cuts
Hey rich folks, Tim Pawlenty wants to cut your taxes. A lot.
Under the terms of his recently revealed economic plan, Americans in the top 20% of earners would see their taxes cut by an average of $23,500, an 8.6 percentage point drop in their tax rate, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
And the top 1% would get an annual average reduction of $261,000, a 14.8 percentage point drop.
Meanwhile, Americans in the lowest 20% of income would see their taxes drop by an average of only $23, a 0.2 percentage point change in their tax rate.
"The revenue yield makes it an implausible tax system to implement," Rosenberg said.
Monday, June 13, 2011
2015年料竣工 可容萬三員工 喬布斯建UFO蘋果總部
(綜合報道)(星島日報報道)蘋果公司行政總裁喬布斯宣布可容納一萬三千人的UFO（不明飛行物）形新總部建築計畫，這個預計在二○一五年落成的項目是喬布斯空前的蘋果樂園夢想。喬布斯承諾，會把該項目打造成全球最好辦公樓，躋身教材建築。
喬布斯日前用幻燈片向總部所在地古柏蒂奴（Cupertino）的市議會以及全世界，描述建築外形和解釋設計理念。蘋果新總部將落成在蘋果不久前購入的惠普（HP）公司舊址。喬布斯計畫將把散落在現總部大樓周圍的蘋果員工聚集於此處辦公室，面積將達三百一十萬平方呎。
像該公司出產的各款高科技產品一樣，新大樓的設計也創意十足。喬布斯說，蘋果公司將來的總部大樓，好像一艘太空船降落地球一樣。他說，這將是全球最好的辦公樓，應被列入教材建築，供建築學生參觀。
設咖啡室及健身中心
喬布斯表示，全樓將採用玻璃外牆，這項設計借鑑了全世界蘋果零售店的建築風格，請來世界頂尖建築師設計。大樓安裝的是全球單塊面積最大的玻璃外牆，且每一塊的弧度都是為該建築物度身訂造。說這座新總部主樓是蘋果樂園一點也不過分。喬布斯表示，除了研發中心、測試中心，該樓還將備有可容納三千人的咖啡餐廳、健身中心，甚至大禮堂。
用八成佔地植樹
整體設計除了主樓之外，還包括地下停車場和一座四層樓的停車建築。目前該地塊有百分之二的綠化面積，包括三千棵樹木。大部分面積為停車場，新設計將會令停車佔地縮減九成，蘋果計畫用八成的佔地來植樹，預計樹木將達到六千七百棵。
喬布斯還準備用清潔能源供給新總部電力，因此特設了能源中心。他說，將使用天然氣發電，成本更低，同時還更清潔，預計碳排放量將下降三成。工程預計二○一二年秋季開工，二○一五年可使用。
(星島日報記者 王碩舸矽谷報道)
喬布斯日前用幻燈片向總部所在地古柏蒂奴（Cupertino）的市議會以及全世界，描述建築外形和解釋設計理念。蘋果新總部將落成在蘋果不久前購入的惠普（HP）公司舊址。喬布斯計畫將把散落在現總部大樓周圍的蘋果員工聚集於此處辦公室，面積將達三百一十萬平方呎。
像該公司出產的各款高科技產品一樣，新大樓的設計也創意十足。喬布斯說，蘋果公司將來的總部大樓，好像一艘太空船降落地球一樣。他說，這將是全球最好的辦公樓，應被列入教材建築，供建築學生參觀。
設咖啡室及健身中心
喬布斯表示，全樓將採用玻璃外牆，這項設計借鑑了全世界蘋果零售店的建築風格，請來世界頂尖建築師設計。大樓安裝的是全球單塊面積最大的玻璃外牆，且每一塊的弧度都是為該建築物度身訂造。說這座新總部主樓是蘋果樂園一點也不過分。喬布斯表示，除了研發中心、測試中心，該樓還將備有可容納三千人的咖啡餐廳、健身中心，甚至大禮堂。
用八成佔地植樹
整體設計除了主樓之外，還包括地下停車場和一座四層樓的停車建築。目前該地塊有百分之二的綠化面積，包括三千棵樹木。大部分面積為停車場，新設計將會令停車佔地縮減九成，蘋果計畫用八成的佔地來植樹，預計樹木將達到六千七百棵。
喬布斯還準備用清潔能源供給新總部電力，因此特設了能源中心。他說，將使用天然氣發電，成本更低，同時還更清潔，預計碳排放量將下降三成。工程預計二○一二年秋季開工，二○一五年可使用。
(星島日報記者 王碩舸矽谷報道)
Investors Selling Continues
Equity market declines further on investors selling. Individual investors and day traders are selling more heavily than in the previous week. Market makers are already thin on portfolio holding and no longer leads the selling.
As the end of Federal Reserve bond buying program is approaching, market participants are preparing for a headwind. The large amount of capital flow may skew the market. The release of second quarter earnings will drive market volatility.
Solving the Mystery of Corporate Cash Hoarding
Dividends are rising at many of our largest public companies, but cash accumulation is rising even faster. The dividend ratio-the percentage of earnings paid out to investors-has been falling for four quarters.
It's now at its lowest level since 1936.
The "cash hoading" also means that companies are not expanding all that fast. That may also reflect a fearful view of the future.
Ordinarily, falling interest rates indicate that there is an abundance of savings available for current investment and future consumption. But our low interest rates are very obviously a product of the Fed's attempt to stimulate the economy. Executives at our most sophisticated companies are not under the impression that Americans are saving so much that they'll have a lot of available cash to spend in the future.
Bank Said No? Hedge Funds Fill a Void in Lending
With traditional lenders still avoiding risky borrowers in the wake of the financial crisis, hedge funds and other opportunistic investors are stepping into the void. They are going after midsize businesses that cannot easily raise money in the bond markets like their bigger brethren.
These lenders of last resort typically charge interest rates that are several percentage points higher than banks. Loaded up with high-cost loans, borrowers could find themselves falling deeper into debt or worse, into bankruptcy.
The lending activity is also stoking fears that speculative activities - like those that contributed to the crisis - are shifting from banks to loosely regulated firms that play by their own rules. While policy makers are moving to increase capital and other standards for banks to prevent another disaster, hedge funds and the like are not subject to the same oversight.
Stockholders Get Richer -- Ain't We Got Fun
The more things change, the more they stay the same, according to the old French saying. That's evident in the Federal Reserve's latest assessment of the financial well-being of U.S. households. There's been a change for the better in their aggregate net worth, but for the average American, it's been more of the same -- a further decline in their wealth, which is tied mainly to housing.
As if it needs repeating, the changes in these asset values have a disparate impact on different income and wealth classes. Even with the broadening of the so-called investor class, holdings of equities remains concentrated among the well-off. To the extent the middle class and lower own any assets, they consist mainly of the roof over their head.
So far, the policy response to the credit crisis and its aftermath has been successful mainly in terms of restoring asset values. Even so, the net worth of U.S. households still is 10% lower than in 2007, a decline of some $6 trillion. Meanwhile, real family incomes have fallen 2% since 2000 while corporate profits have increased 70% over the span.
As the end of Federal Reserve bond buying program is approaching, market participants are preparing for a headwind. The large amount of capital flow may skew the market. The release of second quarter earnings will drive market volatility.
Solving the Mystery of Corporate Cash Hoarding
Dividends are rising at many of our largest public companies, but cash accumulation is rising even faster. The dividend ratio-the percentage of earnings paid out to investors-has been falling for four quarters.
It's now at its lowest level since 1936.
The "cash hoading" also means that companies are not expanding all that fast. That may also reflect a fearful view of the future.
Ordinarily, falling interest rates indicate that there is an abundance of savings available for current investment and future consumption. But our low interest rates are very obviously a product of the Fed's attempt to stimulate the economy. Executives at our most sophisticated companies are not under the impression that Americans are saving so much that they'll have a lot of available cash to spend in the future.
Bank Said No? Hedge Funds Fill a Void in Lending
With traditional lenders still avoiding risky borrowers in the wake of the financial crisis, hedge funds and other opportunistic investors are stepping into the void. They are going after midsize businesses that cannot easily raise money in the bond markets like their bigger brethren.
These lenders of last resort typically charge interest rates that are several percentage points higher than banks. Loaded up with high-cost loans, borrowers could find themselves falling deeper into debt or worse, into bankruptcy.
The lending activity is also stoking fears that speculative activities - like those that contributed to the crisis - are shifting from banks to loosely regulated firms that play by their own rules. While policy makers are moving to increase capital and other standards for banks to prevent another disaster, hedge funds and the like are not subject to the same oversight.
Stockholders Get Richer -- Ain't We Got Fun
The more things change, the more they stay the same, according to the old French saying. That's evident in the Federal Reserve's latest assessment of the financial well-being of U.S. households. There's been a change for the better in their aggregate net worth, but for the average American, it's been more of the same -- a further decline in their wealth, which is tied mainly to housing.
As if it needs repeating, the changes in these asset values have a disparate impact on different income and wealth classes. Even with the broadening of the so-called investor class, holdings of equities remains concentrated among the well-off. To the extent the middle class and lower own any assets, they consist mainly of the roof over their head.
So far, the policy response to the credit crisis and its aftermath has been successful mainly in terms of restoring asset values. Even so, the net worth of U.S. households still is 10% lower than in 2007, a decline of some $6 trillion. Meanwhile, real family incomes have fallen 2% since 2000 while corporate profits have increased 70% over the span.
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