Hot Capital On Market Speculation

Market sees another sell-off in the week. But the rebound is much weaker than previous sell-offs. Market manipulators return to market to participate in the selling, but less aggressively and in increments rather than continuous selling. The amount of hot capital flowing around the market is large and market participants have different speculation. But the common factor to drive hot capital into the market is low return of investment in money market and accumulation of personal wealth from economic activities.

Market manipulators adjust the strategy to match with current market dynamics. The main strategy remains selling. However, instead of a massive selling to create panic in the market, market manipulators are selling repeatedly in smaller increments to ensure that day traders and speculators are following to create a trend to push down market for extended period of time to provide enough spread to take profit. As a result, market remains depressed for several days and there is still no short covering rebound yet.

Market participants are watching closely on the next move of market manipulators who make the largest profit while others are mostly suffering loss from the market sell-offs. Although many days traders and speculators are following closely on the selling, market manipulators are more cautious than before and open far less positions than before. As year end is approaching, it would be better to protect the profit and be less aggressive. On the other hand, market participants are looking to catch up and become more aggressive.

It appears that there may be headwind in the market as the risk appetite of investors are increasing and the flow of hot capital creates turbulance in asset markets.



Hanging on to Home, Even After a Fall
BERNIE AND JOYCE MURPHY are still convinced that they did everything right when they bought their home. And by all indications, they did.

Four years ago, the couple, who have been married 41 years, moved from a small town in Ohio to Stallings, N.C., just outside Charlotte. Mr. Murphy, 65, was retiring and they wanted to be near one of their sons and his family. They saved up, put 5 percent down on a $160,000 two-story townhome, got themselves a plain-vanilla 30-year mortgage and settled into a new life at the end of a quiet street. A small creek runs through the tree-lined development, where model homes have names like Riverbirch and Magnolia.

So what is it that is keeping the Murphys from walking away? Partly it is the morality issue: they promised to pay and they are able to pay, though not without some adjustments to their future financial plans. They also noted that they were not in the same dire straits as others in their neighborhood who walked away, including a young family of four that left in the dead of night some months ago. Mr. Murphy receives monthly pension payments after 22 years in state government in Ohio. He also gets Social Security benefits from 17 years of work at a private college, though those are reduced by Internal Revenue Service rules because of his pension.

“Don’t Get Too Bearish”: 5 Keys to the Market’s Next Move
After a third quarter of wild swings and a big rally in October, the stock market heads into the home stretch virtually unchanged for 2011.

Four key issues hold the key to whether 2011 ends up being the first down year since 2008 or whether the Santa Claus rally comes to town, according to Greg Zuckerman of The Wall Street Journal:

The Core of Europe: Now that Europe's debt crisis has moved from the "periphery", markets will take their cues from interest rates in Italy and France.

It's the Economy, Stupid: A big reason for the big rally in October was better-than-expected U.S. economic data. Many money managers were braced for an imminent "double-dip" and the positive surprises on GDP, employment, retail sales and other metrics helped account for the S&P's nearly 11% rise last month.

China's Landing: Whether China's economy has a 'hard' or 'soft' landing is the critical question on many investors' minds. As the world's second-largest economy and a major importer of myriad commodities, the outcome will have a major impact on financial markets worldwide.

As of Oct. 30, the average hedge fund was down nearly 3% for the year and underperforming the S&P 500, according to Hennessee Group.

Considering the fees being charged by hedge funds and the "reputational risk" of lagging mutual funds, Zuckerman notes underperforming money managers may be tempted to "chase" the market if it exhibits any signs of strength.

As a result, Zuckerman's conclusion is that investors should "not get too bearish" before year-end, even if there are plenty of things to worry about these days.

How to steal like Wall Street
On Wall Street, you gamble. You gamble big. But you gamble with other people’s money.

Borrow as much as you can. If it doesn’t work out, too bad — for someone else. Heads you win, tails they lose.

But reflect that the top 10 people at Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers walked away with nearly $1 billion before those banks collapsed. A billion dollars. That money went to yachts and mansions and mink coats. The people who ran subprime firms like Countrywide Financial walked away with fortunes.

Reflect, too, that the bonus bonanza has been back on Wall Street for at least two years now.

Which brings us to “Occupy Wall Street,” and the protest movement.

America’s bankruptcy laws are crazy. You can shelter all sorts of money in things like 401(k) plans and still walk away. By the standards of the real, “moral” economy they are unconscionable.

Tackling Income Inequality
The Occupy Wall Street protesters have focused attention on rising income inequality in the United States, and they are right to do so.

Income and wealth disparities have reached levels not seen in the United States since the Roaring Twenties. And the concentration of income and wealth contributed to the speculative excesses that brought on the 2008 financial crisis (see Robert Reich's "Aftershock" and Raghuram Rajan's "Fault Lines").

According to a recent report by the Congressional Budget Office, rising income inequality is a long-term trend that began in the late 1970s and strengthened during the last two decades.

The top 1 percent's share of national income has also been rising in most other advanced industrial countries, but it is by far the largest and has grown the most in the United States (see Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson's "Winner-Take-All Politics").

The top 0.1 percent earns about half of all capital gains, and such gains account for about 60 percent of the income of the top 400 taxpayers.

Large cuts in federal tax rates on capital and business income have been very beneficial to the top 1 percent over time.

As a result of these changes, along with President Bush's across-the-board cuts in income tax rates, federal taxes as a share of household income fell for the top 1 percent. Over all, the Bush tax cuts were the largest -- not only in dollar terms but also as a percentage of income -- for high-income households and increased the concentration of after-tax income at the top. Far from curbing escalating inequality, the Bush tax cuts exacerbated the problem.

A credible plan to reduce the long-run deficit requires a significant increase in revenue. Polls indicate that the majority of Americans, like the Wall Street protesters, believe that higher taxes on the rich are warranted both to reduce the deficit and to contain mounting inequality.

Restoring the top income tax rates and capital gains and dividends tax rates to their levels under President Clinton, as President Obama has repeatedly proposed, would be useful first steps. Taxing some carried interest as ordinary income would make the tax system more efficient and curtail outsize compensation in the financial sector. Adding a progressive consumption tax would augment revenue while encouraging saving and discouraging spending on luxury goods, both by the very rich and by those down the income ladder struggling to keep up.

The majority of Americans, like the Wall Street protesters, also believe the corporate tax rate should be raised.

Raising tax rates on capital gains and dividends to the levels under President Clinton would curb the growth of income for the top 1 percent and could finance a substantial cut in the corporate tax rate that would bolster wages and job opportunities for American workers.

U.S. Economy Growing at Fastest Pace of the Year
The U.S. economy may end 2011 growing at its fastest clip in 18 months as analysts increase their forecasts for the fourth quarter just a few months after a slowdown raised concern among investors.

Behind the revised fourth quarter forecasts: Consumers have not cut back on spending even with the turmoil in world financial markets, putting pressure on companies to rebuild inventories they ran down because of concerns about Europe.

Housing construction permits climbed last month to their highest level since March 2010, according to Commerce Department data, as the near record-low mortgage rates lured some buyers into the market.

The future pace of consumer spending ultimately will be decided by the growth of household income, which in turn is tied to the health of the job market.

Man Reported to Find $500,000 Worth of Treasure in Storage Unit

A San Jose man needed no treasure map when he reportedly stumbled on to $500,000 worth of gold and silver after bidding on an abandoned storage unit. The man, identified only as John, apparently paid $1,100 for the unit only to see his blind investment turn into a goldmine after a number of rare coins and a few gold and silver bars were found in the blue Rubbermaid container.

The reported find, in Contra Costa County, was so unexpected that even though the auction was held by American Auctioneers, the subject of A&E's Storage Wars, there were no cameras present when the cache was discovered.

Even without cameras Laura Dotson, the co-owner of American Auctioneers along with husband Dan, still said she was delighted.

"It helps, it solidifies what we're doing in the business," Dotson told ABCNews.com. "It shows hope that with all these units, that there is treasure to be found."

Although the buyer wants to remain anonymous, Dotson said he called her after getting the gold and silver appraised. According to Dotson, the first thing he said was, "Wow, this is a wonderful life."

In recent years storage unit auctions have gained wide-spread recognition after becoming reality fodder for shows like Storage Wars and Spike TV's Auction Hunters.

In California, where American Auctioneers is based, a storage unit is available for auction if rent has not been paid in three months. Bidders are able to view the storage unit from outside for five minutes to glean what they can, and then the bidding starts. While some units are worth little, the possibility of a big payoff draws in participants who are willing to take a chance.

John Cardoza of Storage Auction Experts, which was not involved in the auction, told ABC News that for people who know what they're doing, "Six out of seven units can make money." However, he stresses that the chance to make half a million dollars off a $1,100 bid is a bit rarer. "I hear similar stories about once a year," said Cardoza.

According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the unit was owned by a recently deceased elderly woman. Cardoza says that since the storage units must be listed in the paper prior to the auction, some bidders use names to try to decipher what's in the unit. "What some people do is, they look at the names. If it's Ethel or Myrtle, it sounds older," said Cardoza, who says an older person may have more collectibles than a younger person.

While the coins were apparently found in the unlikeliest of treasure chests -- a Rubbermaid container – it was said to have been heavy enough that three men had to carry it out.

Dotson says the plastic container initially piqued the buyer's interest, although for more pragmatic reasons. "He said that he liked it was in [plastic] and clean and easy to move," said Dotson. "It's a chance of a lifetime."

二戰炮彈出土 「震」撼筲箕灣

【頭條日報】「轟隆！轟隆！」七十年前日軍進攻香港，在鯉魚門與英軍激烈炮戰的一幕，昨日在海防博物館旁邊「重現」。土木工程拓展署在筲箕灣東喜道一個鞏固斜坡地盤，月前接連挖出炮彈，署方為工人安全即時停工，五日前更聘用澳洲退役軍人在山坡展開搜索，昨晨尋獲七枚炮彈，當中引爆時威力巨大，身處一百米外也感到震動。

筲箕灣海防博物館對開一個正在進行護土工程的山坡，昨日在澳洲退役軍人協助下，掘出七枚戰時炮彈，其中六枚斷裂或化成碎片，已經失效，但有一枚直徑六吋的英國炮彈彈身完整，估計仍有爆炸力，警方於早上及下午接連封鎖現場對開的一段東區走廊，進行引爆。

澳洲前軍人來港尋彈

尋獲炮彈的澳洲前軍人阿Mark，五十餘歲，目前在東南亞的老撾居住和工作，有豐富清除地雷經驗，故受聘來港，僅僅五天便在一大幅山坡之中，起出七枚炮彈。

連番發現炸彈的山坡，月前起進行鞏固斜坡工程，但今年九月五日及九日，工人在斜坡挖開泥土，發現兩枚炮彈，需要警方專家到場引爆，由於上址在二戰時曾是英軍和日軍爭奪的重要據點，英軍在現時的海防博物館現址設有炮台，儲存大批炮彈不足為奇。

負責工程的土木工程拓展署，暫停斜坡工程，並聯絡專家阿Mark來港，阿Mark周一抵達後，連續幾日都在斜坡工地以儀器搜索，昨晨九時許，在山坡上起出七枚炮彈。本港警方、爆炸品處理組、消防處人員先後到場戒備，經檢查確定其中一枚炮彈有爆炸危險，需要即場引爆。

爆炸一刻 百米外感震動

早上十一時三十八分，現場對開的一段東區走廊封閉，但第一次引爆只聞聲響，並無感到震動，專家解釋，當時只用小量炸藥將炮彈外殼炸開；至下午二時十五分，第二次引爆時，山坡傳來隆然巨響，被疏散到一百米遠的記者，也感到腳下震動，而山坡上揚起一陣泥沙，飛上東廊的路面，幸車輛已被截停沒有受損。

警方及專家其後在路面檢回炮彈碎片，清理沙石，路面重開。

人民力量區選檢討

時窮節乃見


兩間餘一卒荷戟獨徬徨


人民力量不會退縮不會迴避


人民力量的下一步 / 2012立法會選舉初探 / 問梁家傑（上）


問梁家傑（下）/ 海明威、約翰‧多恩的格言

Market Wild Swing; No Panic Selling Or Frenzy Buying

Market ends flat from last week with wild oscillation between days. In the volatile market, investors learnt to stay calm from experience of prior panic sell-offs when panic market participants sold stocks at market bottom. Unlike prior sell-offs, market manipulators do not initiate the sell-off this time. Day traders are the major participants in this sell-off. As mentioned in previous post, the sell-off duration is getting shorter. And the sell-off in this week lasts only one day. Market recovers the loss in the following two days. Market manipulators cannot profit from short pulse market swing as there is not enough spread and volume for the trades of market manipulators large liquidity. But day traders are eying on small profit between trades in the correct trend.

Day traders are the major participants during the sell-off and following rally. Individual investors also make some speculation trades with the cash on hand. The majority of market participants remain calm and wait for opportunity. There are still a lot of investors waiting for an ideal re-entry point to the market as the bottom of the dip is still above last market bottom and many investors cannot replenish the portfolio at the cost below the selling price when the portfolio is trimmed.

Market participants remain cautious and stay with significant cash on hand to wait for some kind of market collapse. Market manipulators previous selling strategy does not work well as market participants do not go into panic selling to create a wide gap for market manipulators to take profit.

The oscillation in market provides opportunity for speculative traders. Some individual investors are anxious with the mountain of cash on hand due to the extremely low return. As the confidence in equity stock market is still low and trades are crowded in blue-chip and high-dividend stocks, some capital goes into the commodities market on speculation.

Market exhibits little confidence in outlook. On the other hand, market participants are flooded with cash but thin on portfolio holding. Many investors are looking for a market collapse to find an entry point. There are different views on the support level which only the actual market will reveal. The next move of market manipulators may give a hint on market direction.



How to Rest Easy in a Crazy Market
If the market's roller-coaster ride has caused you a lot of heartburn, this might be a great time to do something about it, before another slide is just one too many.

With that in mind, here are seven pointers to calm your portfolio and your stomach:

Get real about your tolerance for pain.
When stocks are mostly going up, many investors believe they have the fortitude to tolerate a fair amount of risk. But as soon as prices sink, so does their gumption. They realize they really aren't willing to ride the roller coaster down as well as up.

Favor funds that cast a wider net.
The narrower the scope of your funds, the greater the risk of outsize losses during market downturns. Consider switching from some of your most narrowly focused funds to funds that hold a wider mix of stocks, or funds that combine stocks with other holdings, such as bonds.

Hire a pilot who charts a smoother ride.
In stock-picking or other strategies, some fund managers try to limit the downside risk. When they succeed, their funds can be easier to keep for the long term. Funds managed with an eye to reducing volatility won't deliver top-of-the-charts performance when the market is surging. But they can hold their own over time, because it's easier for a fund to recover from a modest drop than a steep one.

Another volatility-reducing tack is owning a fund that focuses on blue-chip, dividend-paying companies. Shares of such companies are viewed as safer bets during tough economic times, and they tend to fluctuate less than those of growth-oriented stocks.

Don't try to wager on where stocks are headed.
Investors have a bad record of calling market tops and market bottoms. But over many years, stock prices will appreciate as the economy grows.

If you're holding a lot of cash, you are giving up an opportunity to benefit from that long-term appreciation, says Constance Stone, a certified financial planner in Chagrin Falls, Ohio. But if jumping back into the market all at once might fray your nerves, do it gradually, she says.

Fine-tune your cash stash to your family's needs.
You'll rest more easily if you know you don't need to tap your stocks and stock funds when they are down in order to meet expenses. That's one reason advisers often suggest clients keep on hand cash or readily saleable assets equal to three to nine months of spending.

Don't assume that a stock-free portfolio is risk-free.
As stocks plummeted this summer, investors shifted a mountain of money from stocks into bank accounts and government bonds.

But returns on those two investments are very low. And you could actually lose money on bonds if interest rates—which move the opposite way as bond prices—were to shoot higher.

Don't be ashamed to seek help.
A financial adviser or planner can help you realistically assess your risk tolerance and tailor your investment strategy to it.

Advisers not only aid in creating a strategy, but will help you avoid shooting yourself in the foot by abandoning it at the worst time.

Profits Are at Record Levels, So Why Aren't Stock Prices?
With almost all of the third quarter results out, it's safe to say that companies in the S&P 500 Index (INDEX: ^GSPC - News) have achieved record earnings and profit margins on a quarterly and one-year basis, fully exorcising the 2008 credit crisis and reflecting the aggressive cost cutting efforts underway since that calamity.

"Third quarter 2011 establishes a new quarterly and trailing four quarter EPS peak while trailing four quarter net margins remain at peak levels," according to a Goldman Sachs Research, which came to this conclusion using the figures from the 90 percent of the S&P 500 members that have reported and the firm's estimates for the rest.

"The last four quarter EPS total of $94.80 (for S&P 500) exceeds the previous peak of $91.47 achieved in second quarter 2007," Goldman Sachs said.

So if stock prices are a reflection of future earnings, why hasn't the U.S. benchmark returned to this record high yet? Currently, the S&P 500 is 20 percent below that 2-year old peak.

"The expectation is that earnings may decline if Europe can't get out of its own way," said Karen Finerman, president of hedge fund Metropolitan Capital Advisors.

Companies are sitting on a record cash hoard that they have started to deploy on buybacks and dividends, but have yet to use to hire more employees. Jobs data released Friday showed a 9 percent unemployment rate. Average profit margins in the S&P 500 are at a peak 8.9 percent, according to Goldman.

"You want to buy depressed profit margins and sell record ones as it's a mean reverting statistic," points out Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.

Finding Good Opportunities in a Bad Market
If your outlook on the markets was literally "a decade of blah" it is hard to imagine why you would even stick around for more given all the other intriguing ways there are to invest money. But for Malcolm Polley, the president & CIO of Stewart Capital Advisors, blah markets make for great deals; similar to the 1970's period that spawned some of Warren Buffett's most lucrative investments.

Not surprisingly, Polley is more confident making market calls for the next decade, rather than for the next few months. And who wouldn't be given the current degree of volatility and broad range of economic forecasts that seem eager to humble even to the most savvy of money managers (three-quarters of whom are reportedly underperforming their benchmarks).

Polley says he is also a long-term bull on technology, but advises against diving into the entire sector all at once. Again, he deploys an updated overlay to this perennial favorite of the growth crowd, saying that in fact, tech is now largely cyclical due to the size and cost involved in purchasing computer equipment. Here, he refers to the sector as "an interesting animal," and then dissects the group with a preference towards things like software where the capital expenditures aren't quite as large.

Market Technicals: Is 2011 a 2008 Redux?
Katie Stockton is relatively bullish over the near-term, the operative terms being "relatively" and "near-term." "It's not a comment on the next couple of months," the chief market technician at MKM Parnters tells me, but a chart of the major indexes "looks a lot like what we saw in late 2007 and 2008," she warns.

Her bottom line: "Position for the rally" but don't expect it to last. As a stick-with-it-until-it-stops-working kind of guy, my bottom line remains: Hold your nose, ignore the noise, and buy the dips.

NEW POLL: Americans Now Think Economy Favors Super-Rich
A new Wall Street Journal poll suggests that Americans have woken up to the extreme inequality that has developed in the country in the past three decades, in which the richest Americans have gotten much richer while everyone else has stayed in place or lost ground.

60% of the poll's respondents believe that the current structure of the economy favors a small portion of the rich over the rest of the country. They also think that the power of major banks and corporations should be curtailed. And that the government shouldn't subsidize or bail out companies.

It's very hard to imagine that we will find a way out of our economic predicament that doesn't involve significant pain of one sort or another. But it does not appear that most Americans have woken up to that.

Why European Crisis Fears Slammed U.S. Stocks
The explosive moves in the stock market recently are testing the resolve of investors worldwide, and today there was no relief. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 389 points, or 3.2% to 11,781, the Nasdaq fell 3.88% to 2,622, and the S&P 500 fell 3.67% to 1,229.

The market opened lower this morning on concerns out of Italy and whether Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi would truly resign his post due to his failure to stem the country's debt crisis. As a response, Italian bond yields soared to crisis levels, rising above 7%. Later in the afternoon new details emerged that European officials are reportedly considering an overhaul of the European Union we've come to know.

MF Global Did Indeed Pay Bonuses Before Bankruptcy, But They Were Already in the Pipeline: Source

MF Global paid UK employees their bonuses just before the company filed for bankruptcy protection in the US.

A source familiar with the matter, who wanted to be anonymous because of the sensitivity of it, confirms that bonuses were paid to UK and US employees, but says they were regularly scheduled payments, based on formulas in employment contracts, that were processed several days before the bankruptcy filing.

So, according to this source, it is not as if MF Global employees were getting bonuses furtively shoved in their hands just before the doors closed. But it will still be cold comfort to those customers still waiting to just get their money back.

Video Clip - Stow Lake In San Francisco Golden Gate Park